Spatiotemporal variability of permafrost degradation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Based on data from six meteorological stations in the permafrost regions, 60 boreholes for long-term monitoring of permafrost temperatures, and 710 hand-dug pits and shallow boreholes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), the spatiotemporal variability of permafrost degradation was closely examined in relation to the rates of changes in air, surface, and ground temperatures. The decadal averages and increases in the mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) from 1961–2010 were the largest and most persistent during the last century. MAATs rose by 1.3 °C, with an average increase rate of 0.03 °C/yr. The average of mean annual ground surface temperatures (MAGSTs) increased by 1.3 °C at an average rate of 0.03 °C/yr. The rates of changes in ground temperatures were ?0.01 to 0.07 °C/yr. The rates of changes in the depths of the permafrost table were ?1 to +10 cm/yr. The areal extent of permafrost on the QTP shrank from about 1.50×10⁶ km² in 1975 to about 1.26×10⁶ km² in 2006. About 60% of the shrinkage in area of permafrost occurred during the period from 1996 to 2006. Due to increasing air temperature since the late 1980s, warm (>?1 °C) permafrost has started to degrade, and the degradation has gradually expanded to the zones of transitory (?1 to ?2 °C) and cold (相似文献   

Characteristics and changes of permafrost along the engineering corridor of National Highway 214 in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Due to a series of linear projects built along National Highway 214, the second "Permafrost Engineering Corridor" on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has formed. In this paper, by overcoming the problems of data decentralization and standard inconsistency, permafrost characteristics and changes along the engineering corridor are systematically summarized based on the survey and monitoring data. The results show that: 1) Being controlled by elevation, the permafrost is distributed in flake discontinuity with mountains as the center along the line. The total length of the road section in permafrost regions is 365 km, of which the total length of the permafrost section of National Highway 214 is 216.7 km, and the total length of the permafrost section of Gong-Yu Expressway is 197.3 km. The mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) is higher than -1.5 °C, and permafrost with MAGT lower than -1.5 °C is only distributed in the sections at Bayan Har Mountain and E'la Mountain. There are obvious differences in the distribution of ground ice in the different sections along the engineering corridor. The sections with high ice content are mainly located in Zuimatan, Duogerong Plain and the top of north and south slope of Bayan Har Mountain. The permafrost thickness is controlled by the ground temperature, and permafrost thickness increases with the decrease of the ground temperature, with the change rate of about 37 m/°C. 2) Local factors (topography, landform, vegetation and lithology) affect the degradation process of permafrost, and then affect the distribution, ground temperature, thickness and ice content of permafrost. Asphalt pavement has greatly changed the heat exchange balance of the original ground, resulting in serious degradation of the permafrost. Due to the influence of roadbed direction trend, the phenomenon of shady-sunny slope is very significant in most sections along the line. The warming range of permafrost under the roadbed is gradually smaller with the increase of depth, so the thawing settlement of the shallow section with high ice-content permafrost is more significant.     

Mountain permafrost distribution modeling using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) in the Wenquan area over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

In high mountainous areas, the development and distribution of alpine permafrost is greatly affected by macro- and micro-topographic factors. The effects of latitude, altitude, slope, and aspect on the distribution of permafrost were studied to understand the distribution patterns of permafrost in Wenquan on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Cluster and correlation analysis were performed based on 30 m Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) data and field data obtained using geophysical exploration and borehole drilling methods. A Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline model (MARS) was developed to simulate permafrost spatial distribution over the studied area. A validation was followed by comparing to 201 geophysical exploration sites, as well as by comparing to two other models, i.e., a binary logistic regression model and the Mean Annual Ground Temperature model (MAGT). The MARS model provides a better simulation than the other two models. Besides the control effect of elevation on permafrost distribution, the MARS model also takes into account the impact of direct solar radiation on permafrost distribution.     

青藏高原全新世降水序列的集成重建

青藏高原全新世降水变化对于过去全球变化研究有重要意义。在过去全球变化研究中, 大尺度区域降水序列重建缺乏可行、有效的方法, 本文以青藏高原作为研究区, 构建了分区古降水空间模拟－多区面积加权的集成方法, 重建全新世青藏高原降水序列。本研究以孢粉为环境证据, 选取有空间代表性的10 条由孢粉重建的高原样点降水序列, 获得716 条具有年代的定量降水记录, 建立全新世古降水记录数据集。借助GIS分析, 基于现代高原降水空间分布的地理因子模拟, 并与古降水记录相集成, 定量重建了高原全新世200 年分辨率的降水序列。结果显示:早全新世高原降水迅速增多, 并在9.0 kaBP达到极大值500 mm, 较现代高170 mm;9.0~5.6 kaBP是旺盛的湿润期, 降水总体比现代高出80 mm, 但呈现明显的下降趋势;5.6 kaBP以来降水减少, 降水与现代相当, 但波动幅度较小;集成序列与其他高低分辨率环境记录有很好的可比性, 说明集成序列有很好的代表性和一定的准确性。     

Tessellons,topography, and glaciations on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has developed into a vast fortress-like structure that has recently presented a barrier limiting the egress of moisture-bearing air masses. Lower sea levels also affected the climate. This paper examines their effects on the current evidence for the timing of past glaciations, and the development and evolution of permafrost. There are two theories regarding glaciation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP). Kuhle suggested that there was a major, unified ice-cap during the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM), whereas major Chinese glaciologists and others have not found or verified reliable evidence for this per se. There have been limited glaciations during the last 1.1 Ma B.P. but with increasing dominance of permafrost including both primary and secondary tessellons infilled with rock, sand or loess. The East Asia Monsoon was absent in this area during the main LGM, starting at 30 ka B.P. on the plateau, with sufficient precipitation reappearing about 19 ka B.P. to produce ice-wedges. A weak Megathermal event took place between 8.5 and 6.0 ka B.P., followed by Neoglacial events exhibiting peak cold at 5.3–4.7 ka, 3.1–1.5 ka, and the Little Ice Age(LIA) after 0.7 ka. Subsequently,mean annual air temperature has increased by 4 °C.     

Evolution of permafrost in Northeast China since the Late Pleistocene

In Northeast China, permafrost advanced and retreated several times under the influences of fluctuating paleo-climates and paleo-environments since the Late Pleistocene. During the last 60 years, many new data were obtained and studies were conducted on the evolution of permafrost in Northeast China, but so far no systematic summary and review have been made. Based on sedimentary sequences, remains of past permafrost, paleo-flora and-fauna records, and dating data, permafrost evolution since the Late Pleistocene has been analyzed and reconstructed in this paper. Paleo-temperatures reconstructed from the remains of past permafrost and those from paleo-flora and-fauna are compared, and thus the southern limit of permafrost(SLP) in each climate period is inferred by the relationship of the permafrost distribution and the mean annual air/ground temperatures(MAAT/MAGT). Thus, the evolutionary history of permafrost is here divided into five stages:(1) the Late Pleistocene(Last Glaciation, or LG)(65 to 10–8.5 ka), the Last Glaciation Maximum(LGM, 21–13 ka) in particular, the coldest period in the latest history with a cooling of about 6~10 ?C, characterized by extensive occurrences of glaciation, flourishing Mammathas-Coelodonta Faunal Complex(MCFC), widespread aeolian deposits, and significant sea level lowering, and permafrost greatly expanded southwards almost to the coastal plains(37?N–41?N);(2) the Holocene Megathermal Period(HMP, 8.5–7.0 to 4.0–3.0 ka), 3~5 ?C warmer than today, permafrost retreated to about 52°N;(3) the Late Holocene Cold Period(Neoglaciation)(4.0–3.0 to 1.0–0.5 ka), a cooling of 1~3 ?C, some earlier thawed permafrost was refrozen or attached, and the SLP invaded southwards to 46?N;(4) the Little Ice Age(LIA, 500 to 100–150 a), the latest cold period with significant permafrost expansion; and(5) climate warming since the last century, during which Northeast China has undergone extensive permafrost degradation. The frequent and substantial expansions and retreats of permafrost have greatly impacted cold-region environments in Northeast China. North of the SLP during the HMP, or in the present continuous permafrost zone, the existing permafrost was largely formed during the LG and was later overlapped by the permafrost formed in the Neoglaciation. To the south, it was formed in the Neoglaciation. However, many aspects of permafrost evolution still await further investigations, such as data integration, numerical reconstruction, and merging of Chinese permafrost history with those of bordering regions as well as collaboration with related disciplines. Of these, studieson the evolution and degradation of permafrost during the past 150 years and its hydrological, ecological, and environmental impacts should be prioritized.     

青藏高原西部区域多年冻土分布模拟及其下限估算

准确评估青藏高原西部多年冻土的空间分布及多年冻土下限深度情况对该区地下水资源利用、生态环境保护有重要意义.本文依托科技基础性工作专项“青藏高原多年冻土本底调查”在该区及周边取得的冻土调查资料,利用遥感数据和扩展地面冻结数模型模拟了该区多年冻土的空间分布,调查区的模拟验证表明该方法有较高的精度.在此基础上,根据有限的地温实测资料建立了地温与位置、高程、坡向和太阳辐射的关系,并根据地温-下限关系估算了该区多年冻土下限深度的分布情况.研究表明,该区有多年冻土约占36.9%,季节冻土占57.5%,多年冻土主要分布在34°N~36.5°N范围的喀喇昆仑、西昆仑一带,季节冻土主要分布在塔里木盆地和34°N以南地区.阿里高原及以南是岛状多年冻土分布区域,其多年冻土分布面积少于此前出版的冻土图所绘制的.青藏高原西部区域的多年冻土下限深度整体表现为由东南-西北逐渐加深.     

近30年来青藏高原西大滩多年冻土变化

结合1975年已有勘探资料,对青藏高原多年冻土北界西大滩进行了雷达勘探。勘探发现,近30年来青藏高原多年冻土北界发生较大规模的多年冻土退化,多年冻土面积从1975年的160.5 km²退化成现在的141.0 km²,缩小约12%;开始出现多年冻土的最低高程为4 385 m,比1975年升高了25 m。近30年来研究区的气候变化是造成北界多年冻土退化的主要原因。相同气候背景下,多年冻土腹部地温有升高,但在30年尺度上不会发生明显的退化。本次冻土区域调查的结果可为检验冻土－气候关系模型的可靠与否提供依据。     

青藏高原地区人类发展水平评估及其演变分析

通过夜光发展指数(NLDI)、文化多样性和城市位序规模法则3个维度进行分析,评估不同时期青藏高原地区的人类发展水平.研究表明:①21世纪以来,青藏高原地区人类发展水平在逐年提升,但是人类发展水平整体上还处于中等偏下水平,区域内部人类发展水平存在一定的空间差异,东南部夜间灯光强度比较高,人口分布集中;②青藏高原民族多样性...     

青藏高原沙漠化与冻土相互作用的研究

利用青藏高原地表热量平衡和长期地温观测的资料探讨高原沙漠化与冻土的相互作用,发现沙丘下或厚沙层覆盖地段下的地温较邻近天然无沙地表有所升高,而薄沙层覆盖地段下的地温反而比天然无沙地表有降低的趋势。分析造成高原冻土区沙漠化的因素有些与其它沙漠化区相似,但有些因素与高原冻土有关并具有特殊性。高原冻土层与土地沙漠化二者之间相辅相成、相互制约、相互作用、协调演化,构成了目前高原冻土区生态平衡系统。     

基于人居环境特征的青藏高原“无人区”空间界定

青藏高原独特的高寒环境与自然条件在一定程度上限制了人口的自然分布与有序发展,形成了中国面积大、分布广的“无人区”（UPAs）。然而,当前有关“无人区”面积、分布、特征与区域差异等研究尚无定论。客观、准确界定“无人区”的空间范围,对开展青藏高原资源环境承载力评价、国家公园与生态安全屏障建设等具有重要意义。基于青藏高原居民点分布信息,据其地形、气候、生态、土地利用等要素特征,本文综合表征了居民点的自然—生态—土地利用耦合关系,率定了居民点分布上限的各要素阈值,通过多要素空间叠加构建了“无人区”评价综合模型,并以居民点分布的自然极限、生态（含氧量）下限、土地利用规律为关键阈值界定了青藏高原“无人区”空间范围并分析了其地理分布特征。研究表明：① 以居民点分布累计比例< 0.1%计,确定“无人区”的地形阈值为海拔> 5665 m、相对高差> 2402 m、地形起伏度> 8.59,气候阈值为相对湿度< 76.2%、温湿指数< 33或 > 71。② 根据居民点分布及人体对含氧量耐受情况,确定“无人区”的生态阈值为气压< 500 hpa、大气含氧量< 40%。③ 青藏高原严格“无人区”面积达1912 km²,其中新疆699 km²、四川413 km²、西藏331 km²、青海291 km²、甘肃178 km²。空间上呈零星分散状,多分布在四川贡嘎山、珠穆朗玛峰附近等极高山地区、可可西里东部—罗布泊地区;以及少部分分布在青海柴达木盆地。     

青藏高原草地生态系统碳收支研究进展

陆地生态系统碳收支仍然是当前全球气候变化研究的重要内容,青藏高原作为全球气候变化的敏感区,使青藏高原草地生态系统在区域碳收支平衡中占有主导地位,但研究方法等不同使得碳收支估算结果存在很大的不确定性。气候变暖在一定程度上提高了高寒草地生态系统的植被初级生产力和生物量,由此补偿了气候变暖导致的土壤有机碳分解释量,使青藏高原草地植被仍然发挥着碳汇的功能。而人类放牧活动对草地生态系统的影响较为复杂。因此,如何区分气候变化和人类活动对生态系统的影响机制,定量评价未来气候变化和人类活动影响下,青藏高原生态系统碳源/汇格局的可能变化,是一个非常重要的研究方向,也是一个极大的挑战。     

Natural eco-environmental evaluation of eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau using RS and GIS

The impact of interbasin water transfer on environment is very significant. The affected area of the west route scheme of the South to North Water Transfer Project in China (SNWT) is located in the eastern Tibetan Plateau, where the altitude is high with frigid eco-environment. In this article,remote sensing and GIS are applied to analyze the natural environment and the natural environmentindex is established to express the natural conditions of the study area. After the natural environment index is divided into four grades and the features of each grade are analysed, some results are obtained for reference in environmental assessment of the west route of SNWT.     

Natural eco-environmental evaluation of eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau using RS and GIS

The impact of interbasin water transfer on environment is very significant. The affected area of the west route scheme of the South to North Water Transfer Project in China (SNWT) is located in the eastern Tibetan Plateau, where the altitude is high with frigid eco-environment. In this article, remote sensing and GIS are applied to analyze the natural environment and the natural environment index is established to express the natural conditions of the study area. After the natural environment index is divided into four grades and the features of each grade are analysed, some results are obtained for reference in environmental assessment of the west route of SNWT.     

基于遥感与SRTM的青藏高原冰缘地貌信息提取方法——以1 ∶ 100万标准分幅拉萨幅(H46)为例

根据模型和分布函数,本文首先依据多年平均气温、地温和SRTM等数据对研究区域冰缘地貌的分布范围进行分别提取,并利用遥感数据和人工解译方式对其进行了修正。在此基础上,采用一定指标,利用SRTM数据对冰缘地貌次级类型(如起伏度、海拔高度和坡度等)进行了提取,从而完成研究区域冰缘地貌信息的提取。研究结果表明:①研究区域冰缘地貌总面积约5.15×10⁴km²,主要分布在研究区域的西北部和西南部,另外在东北部也有少量分布;通过提取,研究区域中最重要的冰缘地貌类型是冰缘作用的中起伏缓极高山,面积约0.82×10⁴km²,分布范围较广。②冰缘地貌的分布与海拔高度、气温和地温等有密切的关系,基于此提取的结果可为冰缘地貌的解译提供一定的参考;由于青藏高原气象站点较少,数据精度较低,自动提取精度受到很大限制,因此进行人工解译修正是非常重要和必不可少的。     

史前人类向青藏高原东北缘的三次扩张与环境演变

晚更新世以来,史前人类有3次向青藏高原东北缘扩张的历程,均与环境演变有密切的关系,第一次进军高原发生在40-30ka BP暖湿的气候背景下,其后由于LGM严酷的自然环境,人们在高原的活动极大萎缩,出现文化断层;末次冰消期迅速好转的自然环境驱动了向高原的第二次进军,其后持续暖湿的自然环境,保证了人们能在高原生存与扩散;6～4ka BP东部毗邻地区的马家窑居民,在全新世暖期的气候背景下再次进入东北缘,促使原先生活在高原的居民告别了旧石器时代,进入新石器时代,社会性质发生巨大提升。     

晚更新世以来黄土高原地区古季风的时空演化

通过对黄土高原不同地区黄土-古土壤序列、磁化率、粒度、同位素等的对比,认为黄土高原在末次间冰期有3次东亚季风环境效应突出的时期,分别距今130~116ka、116~94ka和84~74ka。季风锋面深入到榆林以北的地区。末次冰期有3次西北季风环境效应突出的时期,分别距今75~60ka,45~30ka和20~10ka,季风锋面推到长江流域,沙漠边界南移到定边与榆林之间。期间西北季风效应减弱,东亚季风锋面推进到吴堡与定边-米脂之间。全新世以来,东亚季风环境效应不断增强,在全新世中期达到最强,季风锋面推进到榆林以北地区。     

青藏高原史前时期交流路线及其演变

欧亚大陆史前文化交流是当前学术界研究的热点问题,尤其是“一带一路”的国家倡议提出后,青藏高原重要的地理位置确定了其在东西方文化交流中的重要地位。本文基于自然地理因子和不同时期遗址点,在最低成本的控制下实现节点间累积联结的方法,使用GIS（R语言）工具进行空间数值计算,将其结果作为史前时期（新石器—青铜时期)的交流路线。本文重建新石器时期路线27条,总距离约为6000 km;青铜时代30条,总距离约为7800 km。路线的形态由新石器时期的东北—东部—东南—西南边缘呈月牙形环绕发展至青铜时期的由边缘延伸至腹地呈网络化发展的趋势,这是由高原边缘的交流逐步演化成边缘—腹地的交流、并不断强化的表现。重建路线验证了由考古证据支持的农业、驯化动物、彩陶、青铜技术在高原的传播路线,并将其具体化。此外,明确了高原史前交流路线的发展和演变宏观上是受到气候变化的影响,同时受到种植农业技术、驯化动物的传入以及战争等多因素的综合影响。     

Applying the AHP-FUZZY method to evaluate the measure effect of rubble roadbed engineering in permafrost regions of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: a case study of Chaidaer-Muli Railway

This article attempts to investigate the measure effect of rubble roadbed engineering in permafrost regions of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. As a case study, Chaidaer-Muli Railway is used to evaluate the measure effect of rubble roadbed engineering in permafrost regions. The AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) method is thus employed to establish the evaluation indicator system. The evaluation factor is selected by analyzing the mutual relation between the permafrost environment and roadbed engineering. Thus, a hierarchical structure model is established based on the selected evaluation indices. Each factor is weighted to determine the status in the evaluation system, and grading standards are built for providing a basis for the evaluation. Then, the fuzzy mathematical method is introduced to evaluate the measure effect of rubble roadbed engineering in permafrost regions along the Chadaer-Muli Railway. Results show that most of the permafrost roadbed is in a preferable condition(b) along the Chaidaer-Muli Railway due to rubble engineering measures. This proportion reaches to 86.1%. The proportion in good(a), general(c) and poor states(d) are 0.0%, 7.5% and 6.4%, respectively, in all the evaluation sections along the Chaidaer-Muli Railway. Ground-temperature monitoring results are generally consistent with AHP-FUZZY evaluation results. This means that the AHP-FUZZY method can be applied to evaluate the effect of rubble roadbed engineering measures in permafrost regions. The effect evaluation of engineering measures will provide timely and effective feedback information for further engineering design. The series of engineering measures will more effectively protect permafrost stability.     

1976-2016年青藏高原地区通达性空间格局演变

青藏高原地区是地球上最独特的地理—生态—人口—交通单元,区域内交通网络的发展特征及规律是人地关系协同发展的一个重要切入点,对青藏高原地区交通网络开展研究具有重要意义。据此,分析1976-2016年青藏高原地区交通网络演化特征,并以省会、地级市、县级市和县城为节点,采用网络分析的时间距离计算模型探讨其通达性演变过程。研究表明：① 青藏高原地区交通网络复杂性、区域连通性增强,初步形成格状交通网络;② 青藏高原地区中心城市、县城之间的平均最短通达时间已极大缩短至11.89 h、18.84 h,呈自东向西逐渐增大的空间格局,时空收敛效应显著,通达性变化程度与其初始值有关;③ 中心城市为该地区的发展极,其与周围城市通达状况有极大提高,可达时间平均值下降到16.49 h;④ 中心城市和县城交通圈演变过程一致,青藏高原地区各地到最近城市、县城的通达时间不断缩小,沿重要交通干线已形成中心城市4 h、县城2 h短时交通圈连片分布格局,湟水河谷地、一江两河地区逐渐形成交通廊道,乡镇对外交通联系得到改善。