1981—2010年青藏高原地区气温变化与高程及纬度的关系

基于青藏高原地区高质量、均一化的气象站点观测资料,研究1981—2010年青藏高原地区气温变化趋势特征。结果表明:1981—2010年青藏高原地区整体呈升温趋势,平均升温率为0.40℃/10a,冬春季升温率大于夏秋季节,以三江源区、西藏中西部和青海北部升温趋势最为显著。青藏高原地区年和冬、春、秋三季的升温率随海拔高度的升高而增大,海拔每升高1000 m,站点年平均气温倾向率增加0.1℃/10a,冬季更为显著。青藏高原地区夏季气温倾向率的空间分布具有显著的经向差异,纬度每增加10°,气温倾向率增加0.33℃/10a。     

Validation and Application of Reanalysis Temperature Data over the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau has substantial impacts on the weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere,due in large part to the thermal effects of the plateau surface.Surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau is the most important parameter in determining these thermal effects.We present a method for verifying widely used reanalysis temperature products from NCEP-R2,ERA-Interim,and JRA-25 over the Tibetan Plateau,with the aim of obtaining a reliable picture of surface temperature and its changes over the plateau.Reanalysis data are validated against the topography elevation,satellite observations,and radiosonde data.ERA-Interim provides the most reliable estimates of Tibetan Plateau surface temperature among these three reanalyses.We therefore use this dataset to study the climatology and trends of surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau.ERA-Interim data indicate a dramatic warming over the Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to2010,with warming rates of 0.33℃ per decade in annual mean temperature,0.22℃ per decade in summer and0.47℃ per decade in winter mean temperatures.Comparison with the results of previous studies suggests that surface warming over the Tibetan Plateau has accelerated during the past 30 years.This warming is distributed heterogeneously across the Tibetan Plateau,possibly due to topographic effects.     

Interannual Variability of Snow Depth over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Associated Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies

The interannual variability of wintertime snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) and related atmospheric circulation anomalies were investigated based on observed snow depth measurements and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.Empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis was applied to identify the spatio-temporal variability of wintertime TP snow depth.Snow depth anomalies were dominated by a monopole pattern over the TP and a dipole structure with opposite anomalies over the southeastern and northwestern TP.The atmospheric circulation conditions responsible for the interannual variability of TP snow depth were examined via regression analyses against the principal component of the most dominant EOF mode.In the upper troposphere,negative zonal wind anomalies over the TP with extensively positive anomalies to the south indicated that the southwestward shift of the westerly jet may favor the development of surface cyclones over the TP.An anomalous cyclone centered over the southeastern TP was associated with the anomalous westerly jet,which is conducive to heavier snowfall and results in positive snow depth anomalies.An anomalous cyclone was observed at 500 hPa over the TP,with an anomalous anticyclone immediately to the north,suggesting that the TP is frequently affected by surface cyclones.Regression analyses revealed that significant negative thickness anomalies exist around the TP from March to May,with a meridional dipole anomaly in March.The persistent negative anomalies due to more winter TP snow are not conducive to earlier reversal of the meridional temperature gradient,leading to a possible delay in the onset of the Asian summer monsoon.     

近千年青藏高原的温度变化

Temperature variations on the Tibetan Plateau during the last millennium are revealed by comparing a Qamdo tree-ring δ13C, the Dasuopu ice-core δ18O series, and a previous composite temperature reconstruction. Results show that an obvious warm period during 1200-1400 AD corresponds to the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) when summer temperature was 1.2℃ higher than the recent 1000 years average, and a cool phase from 1400 to 1700 AD, with summer temperature being 0.5℃lower than long-term average, can be correlated to the Little Ice Age (LIA). The 13th century was the warmest phase during the past 1000 years, while the coldest period occurred during 1000-1200 AD. The 20th century warming was characterized by rapid winter temperature rise while summer temperature at that time displayed a slight downward trend.     

青藏高原冬季NDVI与西南地区夏季气温的滞后关系

该文利用EOF分解得到的1982—2001年西南地区夏季平均、最高和最低气温的时空特征显示, 西南地区夏季平均、最高气温的时空变化具有很好的一致性, 尤其是川渝地区20世纪80年代为气温负距平, 90年代开始有明显升温。利用GIMMS NDVI和西南4省市96个台站的气温资料进行了相关分析、合成分析以及SVD分析, 得到前期冬季青藏高原植被影响该区夏季气温的滞后关系以及影响较大的区域。结果表明:西南地区夏季平均气温、最高气温对青藏高原冬季植被变化较敏感, 其中青藏高原西部NDVI与西南地区夏季气温的相关强于东部; 青藏高原NDVI异常偏高对应西南地区夏季气温偏高, 其中最高气温升高较明显, 增温最大值出现在7月, 位于西南地区北部; 青藏高原冬季植被变化与西南地区平均气温、最高气温和最低气温的最佳耦合模态中影响程度及关键区域略有差异, 青藏高原冬季NDVI与夏季平均气温关系最密切, 其中青藏高原东北大部分地区和南部 (包括拉萨及林芝东部地区) 的影响最大, 气温对前期青藏高原NDVI变化反应的敏感区主要位于四川盆地及其附近地区。     

西藏高原汛期降水类型的研究

利用西藏高原２６个测站２６年（１９７３￣１９９８年）汛期（５￣９月）降水量资料,采用主成分分析和旋转主成分分析方法,对高原汛期降水空间分布型进行了分析。结果表明,主成分分解得到的降水空间分布形式较为集中,前３个特征向量场的分布型具有十分明确的物理意义,可表示降水场部方差的６３．１４％。旋转主成分分解生前６个载荷向量的累积方差贡献达７６．６７％,可较好反映西藏高原汛期降水６个异常敏感区：东南部、东北     

Estimation of Land Surface Temperature over the Tibetan Plateau Using AVHRR and MODIS Data

Estimation of large-scale land surface temperature from satellite images is of great importance for the study of climate change. This is especially true for the most challenging areas, such as the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this paper, two split window algorithms (SWAs), one for the NOAA’s Advanced Very High Resolu-tion Radiometer (AVHRR), and the other for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), were applied to retrieve land surface temperature (LST) over the TP simultaneously. AVHRR and M...     

青藏高原春夏季对流层温度异常特征

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,在揭示青藏高原对流层中上层(500~200hPa)温度变化特征的基础上,通过比较与同纬度地区对流层中上层温度的差异,从温度纬向偏差角度定义了一个高原热力指数(TDI),并分析了该指数在春夏季的多时间尺度变化特征。结果表明:1由春到夏,亚洲对流层中上层的暖中心经历了从西太平洋西进到大陆,并逐渐发展控制整个东亚地区,之后东退的过程。春季扰动温度暖中心由我国华南地区逐渐西移至高原南部,中心强度逐渐增大,夏季扰动中心稳定在青藏高原南部;2TDI的年变化曲线呈现出明显的单峰型特征,表明高原的热力作用从4月开始明显增强,并在7月达到最大,9月后又迅速减弱;3各月TDI的最高值、最低值和平均值均表现出夏季大冬季小的特征,夏季TDI变幅明显小于其他季节;4TDI具有明显的年际变化,但春(夏)季该指数存在一定(明显)的月际差异,且无明显的线性变化趋势。     

近50 a青藏高原地面气温序列的重建

利用NCEP／NCAR500hPa高空再分析资料插补得到青藏高原1950—2000年50个海拔在3000m以上台站500hPa完整可靠的月平均温度序列。基于青藏高原地面气温和其上空500hPa温度有着密切关系，设计了这50个台站地面月平均温度序列的回归方案，用回归估计值将近50a各台站的现有月平均气温记录进行补齐、延长，得到重建的高原台站完整连续的地面月平均气温资料，并对回归效果进行独立样本实验。重建的青藏高原地面气温资料能够真实地反应高原实际气温的变化特征。     

Air Temperature Estimation with MODIS Data over the Northern Tibetan Plateau

Time series of MODIS land surface temperature(T_s) and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) products,combined with digital elevation model(DEM) and meteorological data from 2001 to 2012,were used to map the spatial distribution of monthly mean air temperature over the Northern Tibetan Plateau(NTP). A time series analysis and a regression analysis of monthly mean land surface temperature(T_s) and air temperature(T_a) were conducted using ordinary linear regression(OLR) and geographical weighted regression(GWR). The analyses showed that GWR,which considers MODIS T_s,NDVI and elevation as independent variables,yielded much better results [R_(Adj)~2 0.79; root-mean-square error(RMSE) =0.51℃–1.12℃] associated with estimating T_a compared to those from OLR(R_(Adj)~2= 0.40-0.78; RMSE = 1.60℃–4.38℃).In addition,some characteristics of the spatial distribution of monthly T_a and the difference between the surface and air temperature(T_d) are as follows. According to the analysis of the 0℃ and 10℃ isothermals,T_a values over the NTP at elevations of 4000–5000 m were greater than 10℃ in the summer(from May to October),and T_a values at an elevation of3200 m dropped below 0℃ in the winter(from November to April). T_a exhibited an increasing trend from northwest to southeast. Except in the southeastern area of the NTP,T d values in other areas were all larger than 0℃ in the winter.     

Anthropogenic Aerosol Pollution over the Eastern Slope of the Tibetan Plateau

In this study, a combination of satellite observations and reanalysis datasets is used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution, classification and source of pollutants over the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau(ESTP). The aerosol optical depth(AOD) over the ESTP is extremely large and even larger than some important industrialized regions and deserts. The main aerosol component over the ESTP is sulfate, followed by carbonaceous and dust aerosols. Local emissions related to human activity directly contribute to the accumulation of sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols over the Sichuan Basin. In addition, in spring, abundant carbonaceous aerosols emitted from forest, grassland and savanna fires in Southeast Asia can be transported by the prevailing southwesterly wind to southern China and the ESTP. The dust AOD over the ESTP peaks in spring because of the transport from the Taklimakan and Gobi deserts. Additionally, the high aerosol loading over the ESTP is also directly related to the meteorological background. Due to the special topography, the terrain-driven circulation can trap aerosols in the Sichuan Basin and these aerosols can climb along the ESTP due to the perennial updraft. The aerosol loading is lowest in summer because of effective wet deposition induced by the strong precipitation and better dispersion conditions due to the larger vertical temperature gradients and ascending air movement enhanced by the plateau heat pump effect. In contrast,the aerosol loading is greatest in winter. Abundant anthropogenic aerosols over the ESTP may generate some climatic and environmental risks and consequently greatly influence the downstream regions.     

青藏高原西侧地区冬季降水的年际变率及其影响因子

基于全球降水气候中心（GPCC）和全球降水气候计划（GPCP）的降水数据及ERA-interim再分析资料,分析了1979~2012年冬季青藏高原（简称高原）西侧地区降水的基本特征及影响其年际变率的潜在因子。结果表明高原冬季降水主要发生在其西侧地区且为全区变化一致型,降水所需的水汽主要来自上游地区,从该区域的西边界输入。然而,高原西侧地区冬季降水的年际变率主要由水汽输送的动力过程所决定,表现为高原西侧的西南风异常。此外,高原西侧冬季降水的年际变率与其上游典型的大气内部变率北大西洋涛动和北极涛动相关性不强,而与赤道西印度洋和热带中东太平洋的海温显著相关。热带中东太平洋海温异常通过影响大气环流变化,在印度洋北部激发一个反气旋式的环流异常,使得高原西侧地区出现异常西南风,从而加强了水汽通量输送的动力作用。同时在赤道异常东风的作用下,暖水也向印度洋西部输送堆积。赤道中东太平洋海温的异常可进一步导致西风急流发生南北移动,从而也在一定程度上影响了高原西侧冬季水汽输送以及降水的年际变率。     

1984—2017年ISCCP-FH辐射资料在青藏高原地区的适用性评估

长序列卫星辐射资料的缺乏一直是制约青藏高原(以下简称高原)辐射长期变化研究的重要原因之一。对国际上最新提供的1984—2017年ISCCP-FH(以下简称FH)长序列卫星辐射资料中的大气顶逸出长波辐射(OLR)、到达地面短波辐射(SWD)、地面向上长波辐射(LWU)、到达地面长波辐射(LWD)进行分析,评估了FH辐射资料在全天气条件下的青藏高原地区的适用性。结果表明:与观测相比,FH资料的4种辐射通量气候平均值误差均小于5%,其中OLR和SWD的偏差较小,LWU的偏差最大。FH资料能正确反映高原各辐射通量的冬季增强趋势,OLR和LWD在各季节的长期变化趋势均与观测一致,LWU则呈现虚假的减弱趋势。总体来说,在高原地区,FH资料的地面短波辐射通量比长波辐射通量适用性好。进一步对长波辐射偏差原因分析显示,气温偏差会增强LWD的气候态和长期趋势,而地温偏差对LWU的作用与之相反。辐射模型、云和水汽的差异导致最终FH资料中的LWD气候态和长期趋势较观测略偏弱,FH资料的计算方案在一定程度上修正了地温偏差造成的LWU偏弱。研究结果将为使用FH辐射资料提供参考依据。     

青藏高原气温和降水的年际和年代际变化

通过对青藏高原72个地面气象站1962～1999年的气温和降水变化的分析,以唐古拉山脉为界将高原分为青海区和西藏区,分别考察了两区冬春(上年10月～当年5月)和汛期(当年6月～9月)气温与降水的变化趋势、突变及其周期振荡,得出的主要结论为:近38年(1962～1999)来,青藏高原呈升温趋势,冬春大多数台站的升温率为0.02～0.03 ℃ a-1,汛期大多数台站的升温率为0.01～0.02 ℃ a-1;20世纪80年代以来,高原冬春气温的升温更为强烈,汛期青海区的升温变得强烈,但西藏区反呈微弱降温趋势,降温主要发生在西藏的江河谷地;全球性的1980年左右的暖突变在青藏高原是明显存在的;近38年来,青海区冬春降水和西藏区汛期降水存在相同的相位变化,即20世纪60年代基本偏多,20世纪70年代和20世纪80年代初偏少,20世纪80年代中到20世纪90年代偏多;青海区汛期降水与西藏区汛期降水的变化存在反向的关系,但它的转折点要滞后4～5年,青海区汛期降水20世纪60年代偏少,20世纪70年代和20世纪80年代偏多,20世纪90年代偏少;西藏区冬春降水呈现自己独特的变化,20世纪60年代到20世纪70年代初偏少,20世纪70年代中末期到20世纪90年代偏多;高原气温主要存在准3年、5～8年和准11年的周期振荡,高原降水主要存在3～5年、8～11年和准19年的周期振荡,这些周期振荡在高原气候演变的不同阶段显著性不一.     

Variations of the Surface Wettability Index over the Tibetan Plateau During 1971-2005

Based on 1971-2005 monthly mean maximum/minimum temperature,wind speed,relative humidity,sunshine duration,and precipitation data at 25 stations over the Tibetan Plateau,a study of the largest potential evapotranspiration(LPE)is performed by using the Penman-Monteith model.The surface wettability index(SWI)is calculated and examined,together with its space distribution,interannual and seasonal variations,as well as associated causes.The results suggest that the annual area rainfall exhibits a pronounced increasing trend at 15.0 mm per decade; the annual LPE shows a different-degree decrease at-4.6-71.6 mm/10 yr.In the southwestern Ngari prefecture and Nyalam county,the annual SWI displays insignificant decline trends compared to increasing trends in other areas of Tibet(0.02-0.09 per decade).For Tibet,on average,the SWI experiences a noticeable rise at 0.04/10 yr,particularly in 1981-2005.On a seasonal basis,the SWI shows increasing trends,especially in summer.In the 1970s-1980s,the interannual variation is characterized mainly by lower temperature and lower humidity.From the 1990s,air temperature keeps on rising,leading to an appreciable increase in SWI,displayed as a type of warm and humid climate.The salient increases(decrease)of precipitation and relative humidity(mean temperature daily range)are the principal causes of the greatly enhanced SWI in the region.The pronounced decrease in mean wind and sunshine duration also plays an active role.     

Air Temperature Changes over the Tibetan Plateau and Other Regions in the Same Latitudes and the Role of Ozone Depletion

Using radiosonde and satellite observations, we investigated the trends of air temperature changes over the Tibetan Plateau （TP） in comparison with those over other regions in the same latitudes from 1979 to 2002. It is shown that Over the TP, the trends of air temperature changes in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere were out of phase with those in the lower to middle troposphere. Air temperature decreased and a decreasing trend appeared in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. The amplitude of the annual or seasonal mean temperature decreases over the TP was larger than that over the whole globe. In the lower to middle troposphere over the TP, temperature increased, and the increasing trend was stronger than that over the non-plateau regions in the same latitudes in the eastern part of China. Meanwhile, an analysis of the satellite observed ozone data in the same period of 1979-2002 shows that over the TP, the total ozone amount declined in all seasons, and the ozone depleted the most compared with the situations in other regions in the same latitudes. It is proposed that the difference between the ozone depletion over the TP and that over other regions in the same latitudes may lead to the difference in air temperature changes. Because of the aggravated depletion of ozone over the TP, less （more） ultraviolet radiation was absorbed in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere （lower to middle troposphere） over the TP, which favored a stronger cooling in the upper troposphere to lower stratosphere, and an intenser heating in the lower to middle troposphere over the TP. Therefore, the comparatively more depletion of ozone over the TP is possibly a reason for the difference between the air temperature changes over the TP and those over other regions in the same latitudes.     

青藏高原夏季大气视热源与中国东部降水的关系的年代际变化

基于1979～2017年欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）提供的ERA-Interim逐日再分析资料和热力学方程,本研究估算了大气视热源,分析研究了青藏高原夏季大气视热源的异常与中国东部降水关系的年代际变化,以及青藏高原大气视热源影响我国东部夏季降水的物理机制。结果表明:（1）高原热源东、西部反相变化模态的重要性发生了年代际转变,表现为由1994年之前方差贡献相对小的第二变异模态变为1994之后方差贡献明显增大而成为第一主导变异模态。（2）青藏高原夏季大气视热源的东、西反相变化模态与中国东部降水的关系存在年代际变化。1993年之前和2008年之后,高原大气视热源的异常分别仅与长江下游降水和长江中游降水异常存在密切的联系;而在1994～2007年,其对长江流域及附近区域和华南地区的夏季降水的影响显著,具体表现为,当高原夏季大气视热源异常表现为东强西弱（东弱西强）时,长江中上游、江淮地区的降水偏多（少）,华南地区降水偏少（多）。（3）高原大气视热源显著影响我国东部夏季降水主要是通过经高原上空发展加强的天气系统东移过程影响长江流域及附近地区的降水,以及通过垂直环流影响华南地区的降水。     

近30年青藏高原上空大气温度变化特征

根据青藏高原地区16个探空站近30a (1979~2008年)的月平均温度资料对该地区高空年、季平均温度演变特征进行了分析。结果表明:(1)高原上空年、季平均温度均具有较高的空间一致性,其中夏季的一致性特征最弱;(2)高原上空250hPa层及以下和50hPa层及以上平均温度的季节变化特征为冬季最冷、夏季最热,100~70hPa层与其相反;(3)近30a来高原地区对流层中上层(500~250hPa)年平均温度是上升的,对流层上层至平流层下层(150hPa层及以上)以降温为主,高层的降温普遍始于1984年,且变冷显著。      

1997—1998年青藏高原大气低频振荡及对降水影响

利用1979—1998年NCEP/DOE逐日再分析资料和国家气象信息中心的常规观测站资料,研究了1997/1998年冬季、1998年夏季青藏高原 (简称高原) 季风的低频振荡特征,研究夏季高原和周边区域高低层大气低频环流系统的配置及其与我国降水的联系。结果表明:1997/1998年冬季和1998年夏季,高原季风不仅表现出很强的30~60 d的周期振荡特征,还伴随有较强的准双周低频振荡;相应区域对流层上层200 hPa上的环流系统则是30~60 d为主的周期变化。1998年夏季,高原地面气压也存在两个频带的低频振荡变化,且其强度存在明显的经向变化,即自南向北30~60 d低频振荡信号有逐渐减弱趋势,准双周信号则呈增强趋势。对30~60 d的低频信号而言,高原夏季风低频信号较强 (弱) 时,高原地面表现为低频低 (高) 压环流系统,在同纬度带的我国东部地区和西太平洋沿岸,是较强的低频北 (南) 风和低 (高) 压环流系统;相应地,在80°~90°E之间,自孟加拉湾到我国西北中部地区,是低频反气旋-气旋-反气旋的经向低频波列;受低频环流系统影响,高原东部、长江中下游地区降水偏多 (少)、川西高原、云南西南部降水偏少 (多)。     

青藏高原东部重力波过程与西南涡活动的统计关系

本文利用2012～2015年西南涡加密观测大气科学实验的剑阁、金川、九龙和名山四站探空资料,统计分析了6～7月西南涡活动期间对流层中、高层（6～12 km）的重力波过程,结果表明:青藏高原东部川西高原南部的九龙站与其余三站不同,重力波源主要来自对流层上层,波能传播方向向上,剑阁、金川和名山三站重力的波源主要来自对流层下层,波能传播方向向下。重力波过程在不同类型的西南涡活动中有明显差异,在移出型西南涡活动初期,重力波水平传播方向主要为东北向,其上传概率远大于下传概率,波动的动能和潜能较大且变化剧烈;而对应源地型西南涡,初期主要呈西北—东南向传播且重力波上传与下传概率相当,动能和潜能较小且变化相对平缓同时本次研究表明,重力波水平传播方向对西南涡的移动方向也有一定指示作用。按照发生时刻本文将重力波分为日发型重力波和夜发型重力波,在夜发型西南涡初期,重力波活动夜发（北京时20:00～08:00）的概率较大,这表明重力波的夜发性与西南涡的夜发性可能存在一定关联。