Variations in short-period shear-wave attenuation in the Baikal Rift Zone and their relationship to seismicity

This paper presents results from a study of variations in short-period shear-wave attenuation in the lithosphere of the Baikal Rift Zone (BRZ). We used earthquake records made at the Ulan-Bator station (ULN) at epicentral distances of ～400–1300 km. The ratios of maximum amplitudes in the Sn and Pn waves were considered. We show that these ratios are on the whole considerably higher than those in other areas of Central Asia. It was found that zones of low shear wave attenuation coincide with the rupture zones of large earthquakes that occurred during the 19th and 20th centuries. We identified zones of high attenuation where no large (M～ > 7.0) seismic events have occurred during at least 180 years. The hypothesis we propose is that precursory processes before future large earthquakes may be occurring in these zones. We discuss the question of whether wave attenuation characteristics may be related to seismicity.     

Episodes of high correlation between annual rates of earthquakes: The Baikal Rift Zone

Correlation analysis techniques were used to study variations in the annual rates N of completely reported earthquakes with energy class K ≥ 8 that occurred from 1964 to 2001 in the Baikal Rift Zone (BRZ), in three subregions within that zone, and in six areas. This correlation analysis of samples of annual rates of earthquakes N with different observation periods revealed two statistically significant episodes of short-lived synchronization between the seismic processes in the BRZ, in the late 1960s and in the late 1970s to the early 1980s. The 1970–1980 episode stands out because of its duration and the highest correlation level; this makes it the dominant phenomenon in the Baikal Rift seismicity synchronization. The observed synchronization episodes between annual rates of earthquakes show that the seismic process was activated at about the same time in different subregions of the BRZ, thus producing short-lived coherent increases in seismicity rates.     

Stresses and seismicity at the present stage of evolution of the Baikal rift zone lithosphere

The paper presents results of studying stresses and seismicity of the lithosphere in the Baikal rift zone at the present (instrumental) stage of its evolution. These results are well consistent with the theory of self-organization of complex dynamic systems and can be used for the classification of certain features and properties of the Baikal rift seismogenic system studied. Application of the theory of nonlinear dynamic systems to the analysis of stresses and seismicity allowed us to develop a concept of a complex spatiotemporal structure of the stress state of the lithosphere and seismicity in the region. In terms of this concept, the distribution of strong earthquakes in time is explained in terms of bifurcations (catastrophes) of stresses in the rift zone. Extrapolation of the results indicates that a stress catastrophe in lithosphere of the rift zone can take place in the next few years years, which increases the probability of occurrence of strong (M ≈ 7) earthquakes in the Baikal region. A model with bifurcation of triple equilibrium most consistent with the phase image of regional stresses is proposed as a scenario of the stress state evolution in the lithosphere of the Baikal rift zone.     

Fractal analysis of space-time variations in the epicentral field of earthquakes for several areas in the Baikal Rift Zone

Fractal analysis techniques were used to study space-time variations in the epicentral field of earthquakes for several areas in the Baikal Rift Zone (BRZ). In each area the epicentral field is found to be a system consisting of several subsystems in the shape of maxima of increased fractal dimension D _s , which occurred approximately at the same locations with constant or variable periodicity. We detected simultaneity and migration in the appearance of some maxima of D _s . Most local areas in the regions under study typically have an unformed type of epicentral field, to use A.V. Solonenko’s terminology, and this makes it difficult to predict the time of earthquake occurrence at a specified location using simple statistical methods. We used the variations in D _s in different regions to study the behavior of the present-day seismotectonic process in the BRZ as a whole.     

The character and extent of seismic deformation in the focal zone of gazli earthquakes of 1976 and 1984,M>7.0

With objective of investigating the peculiarities of seismic process development and seismotectonic deformation character in the focal area of the Gazli earthquakes of 1976 (7.0<M<7.3) and 1984 (M=7.2), a local seismic network was installed. For the field observation period (May to June, 1991) more than 400 events with magnitudes –0.2<M<4.5 were recorded by at least 6 stations.Isometric presentation of earthquake hypocenters distribution allows us to define the depth and dipping planes orientation of seismoactive faults of the region.The focal mechanisms of 35 earthquakes for the period 1979–1988,M>2.8, connected to a gas extraction regime period, and 75 events 1<M<4.3 for the 1991 period (gas storage regime) are used to analyze the dynamics of seismotectonic deformation processes (SDP) in this region. It has been ascertained, that the earth's crust in the Gazli region is subject to complicated deformation processes, particularly below 4 km depth. The predominant kind of deformation is compression. Vertical velocities of deformation show uplift of most of the region during the period of field work. The maximum velocity of vertical deformations for the Gazli structure isV=0.41 mm/year. The comparison of the vertical velocities' displacements due to seismic flow with recent tectonic movements of the earth's crust has revealed their direct relation and high percentage of seismic flow contribution to the tectonic movement. The results obtained testify that the active seismic processes in the Gazli region are connected not as much as the residual stress release in the focal zone of the earthquakes 05. 1976 and 1984,M>7.0 but rather with the influence of the gas reservoir exploitational regime on the rocks with different rheologic properties.     

Correlation of earthquake occurrence rates in the Baikal region and mongolia: Episodes of synchronism

Variations in annual numbers of earthquakes (the earthquake occurrence rate) that hit the Baikal region and Mongolia during the period from 1964 through 2001 are studied in this work. Correlation analysis of the different-length series of annual numbers N of earthquakes of representative energy classes makes it possible to reveal the effects of synchronous changes in the earthquake occurrence rate in seven regions and eleven areas in the Mongolia-Baikal region, located far apart. The analysis of the shock occurrence rate revealed episodes of short-period synchronization of seismic processes in the Mongolia-Baikal region at the end of the 1960s, early in the 1980s, and in the middle of the 1990s. The episode of synchronization in the earthquake occurrence rate in the early 1980s is observed in all the territories under study, but the episode at the end of the 1960s is less distinctly seen in Mongolia and is revealed mainly in the data series with a length of three years. The synchronization in the seismicity in Mongolia and in the southern PreBaikal region in 1995 requires further investigations, involving the dynamic parameters of the earthquake sources. The observed synchronism in the annual number of earthquakes indicates that the seismic processes become active nearly simultaneously over the huge territory of the Mongolia-Baikal region and produce a short-term coherent change in the shock occurrence rate in the spatial-temporal distribution of the seismicity. The observed spatial and temporal correlation in the seismicity is a sign of the seismogenic link between the Baikal region and Mongolia.     

Activation of rifting processes in the Northern Cis-Baikal region: A case study of the Kichera earthquake sequence of 1999

The paper addresses the spatiotemporal development of the Kichera sequence of earthquakes of 1999 (more than 6000 events over the year) within the Kichera depression, terminating on land in the Northern Baikal basin; the series was the most intense of all earthquake sequences recorded in the Northern Cis-Baikal region (NCBR) since 1960. The spatial coordinates of earthquakes showed that the source rupture, originating in the area of the Kichera-Upper Angara interbasin mountainous isthmus, propagated in the SW direction toward Lake Baikal. Stresses in the sources of the two strongest shocks (Mw = 6.0 and 5.6) of the sequence were released along fault planes striking NE (normal type) and E-W (normal-strike-slip type). Focal mechanisms of aftershocks revealed the presence of differently oriented faults motions on which were controlled by a large rifting fault striking NE. The Kichera earthquakes are shown to have occurred under seismotectonic conditions dominated by NW-SE extension and to have been accompanied by active normal faulting promoting longitudinal growth of the Upper Angara depression and deepening of the Kichera depression. The seismotectonic strain rates calculated for the NCBR before and after 1999 were of the order of (0.1–1.0) × 10^?10 yr^?1, whereas their values were two to three orders larger during 1999. Thus, the Kichera earthquakes confirmed the high seismic potential of the NCBR and showed that this rift segment developed through growth of depressions and destruction of interbasin mountainous isthmuses.     

Stress-strain state of the lithosphere in the southern Baikal region and northern Mongolia from data on seismic moments of earthquakes

Investigation and understanding of the present-day geodynamic situation are of key importance for the elucidation of the laws and evolution of the seismic process in a seismically active region. In this work, seismic moments of nearly 26000 earthquakes with K _p ≥ 7 (M _LH ≥ 2) that occurred in the southern Baikal region and northern Mongolia (SBNM) (48°–54°N, 96°–108°E) from 1968 through 1994 are determined from amplitudes and periods of maximum displacements in transverse body waves. The resulting set of seismic moments is used for spatial-temporal analysis of the stress-strain state of the SBNM lithosphere. The stress fields of the Baikal rift and the India-Asia collision zone are supposed to interact in the region studied. Since the seismic moment of a tectonic earthquake depends on the type of motion in the source, seismic moments and focal mechanisms of earthquakes belonging to four long-term aftershock and swarm clusters of shocks in the Baikal region were used to “calibrate” average seismic moments in accordance with the source faulting type. The study showed that the stress-strain state of the SBNM lithosphere is spatially inhomogeneous and nonstationary. A space-time discrepancy is observed in the formation of faulting types in sources of weak (K _p = 7 and 8) and stronger (K _p ≥ 9) earthquakes. This discrepancy is interpreted in terms of rock fracture at various hierarchical levels of ruptures on differently oriented general, regional, and local faults. A gradual increase and an abrupt, nearly pulsed, decrease in the vertical component of the stress field S _v is a characteristic feature of time variations. The zones where the stress S _v prevails are localized at “singular points” of the lithosphere. Shocks of various energy classes in these zones are dominated by the normal-fault slip mechanism. For earthquakes with K _p = 9, the source faulting changes with depth from the strike-slip type to the normal-strike-slip and normal types, suggesting an increase in S _v . On the whole, the results of this study are well consistent with the synergism of open unstable dissipative systems and are usable for interpreting the main observable variations in the stress-strain state of the lithosphere in terms of spatiotemporal variations in the vertical component of the stress field S _v . This suggests the influence of rifting on the present-day geodynamic processes in the SBNM lithosphere.     

Influence of electromagnetic fields on the seismotectonic strain rate; relaxation and active monitoring of elastic stresses

We study the changes in the rate of seismotectonic strains in the Earth’s crust in two of the most seismically active Central Asian areas, the Garm region in Tadjikistan and the Northern Tien Shan, which are excited by high energy pulsed electromagnetic irradiation. It is shown that in both areas the average rates of strain release increase by a factor of 10–20. The increment of the seismotectonic strains initiated during the entire period of electromagnetic treatment is 1.3 × 10⁻⁶–6.3 × 10⁻⁶, which is comparable with the value of crustal strains observed during the preparation of strong earthquakes and amounts to 3–13% of the ultimate strains for rocks. Such a contribution to the process of quasi-plastic strains of the crust results in the additional relaxation of elastic stresses by 0.4–1.67 bar, which corresponds to approximately 1–17% of the stress released in the sources of strong earthquakes. The spatial variations in the changes of the strain rate during electromagnetic treatment are studied, and their correlation with the level of stresses in the Earth’s crust is revealed. It is shown that the change in the strain rate during the electromagnetic excitation can be used as the criterion for active monitoring of the stress state of the medium for the purposes of predicting the location, time, and magnitude of strong earthquakes.     

Deformation of the Earth’s crust in the Northern Tien Shan according to the earthquake focal data and satellite geodesy

For evaluating the deformations of the Earth’s crust in the Northern Tien Shan, we calculated the mode and intensity of the seismotectonic deformations (STD) for this region. The input for these calculations were the catalog data on the focal mechanisms of earthquakes, obtained by wave inversion of the signals recorded at the Kyrgyz seismic network (KNET) for the period 1994–2006. In the construction of STD maps, a modern approach to the classification of seismotectonic deformations was applied. This approach distinguishes eleven typical patterns of deformation. The areal distributions of the Lode-Nadai coefficient, as well as of the vertical component and the aspect angle of the deformed state were obtained. At the same time, based on the GPS measurements in the Northern Tien Shan during 1994–2006, the rates of dilatation and shear deformation of the Earth’s crust were estimated. A comparison between the directions of strain axes derived from the GPS data and from the earthquake focal data is carried out.     

The August 27, 2008, M w = 6.3 Kultuk earthquake (South Baikal): The stress-strain state of the source area from the aftershock data

We consider the results of reconstructing the stress-strain state of the Earth’s crust in South Baikal from the focal mechanism data for the Kultuk earthquake of August 27, 2008 (M _w = 6.3) and its aftershocks. The source parameters of the main shock were determined by calculating the seismic moment tensor. The focal mechanism solutions of 32 aftershocks (M _w ≥ 2.3) were obtained through the deployment of a local seismic network at South Baikal. It is found that the main shock and first aftershocks (August–September) gave rise to the activation of latitudinal fragments of the segmented near-edge fault, and the sources of the consequent aftershocks were dominated by the NW-striking planes related to the small intrabasin structures. The calculations of seismotectonic deformations based on the data on the focal mechanisms of the earthquakes show that the area of activation is dominated by the transtension regime (with deformation in the form of extension with shear). The epicentral and hypocentral fields of the aftershocks and the mechanisms of their sources reflect the complex tectonic structure of the source zone of the Kultuk earthquake, which exhibits a clear subvertical zonality of the local seismically active volume and a wedge-shaped area of crustal destruction.     

Generalization of the results of long-term strainmeter and GPS observations for intraplate regions

The measurements of contemporary deformations in Asia in the region of active seismic processes stretching from Northern Tien Shan through Altai and Sayan Mountains to Lake Baikal have been carried out for a few decades by strainmeters and tiltmeters. Recently, these works were expanded by the network measurements by the methods of space geodesy. Studying the contemporary displacements and deformations of the Earth’s crust is necessary for solving various problems on a wide range of spatial and time scales from exploring the contemporary deformations of the tectonic plates and present-day seismicity to estimating the man-made loads on the geological medium. The measurements of the deformations are conducted by different methods with short and long baselines, on the surface and at different depths. Based on the obtained data, it is possible to analyze the strain rates at different frequencies and to compare them with the level of seismic activity in the region. In recent decades, the seismic zone located in the south of the Siberian platforms experienced a few strong (M = 6.3–7.5) earthquakes, during which the deformation and displacement fields were captured. South of this region, the displacement fields during the earthquakes with the magnitude above 8 were recorded by the space geodetic methods in China. By excluding the coseismic effects, one can estimate the tectonic component of the displacements and deformations.     

Tectonic setting of the recent damaging seismic series in the Southeastern Betic Cordillera,Spain

In this work we analyze the tectonic setting of the recent damaging seismic series occurred in the Internal Zones of the eastern Betic Cordillera (SE Spain) and surrounding areas, the tectonic region where took place the 11th May 2011 Mw 5.2 Lorca earthquake. We revisit and make a synthesis of the seven largest and damaging seismic series occurred from 1984 to 2011. We analyze their seismotectonic setting, and their geological sources under the light of recent advances in the knowledge on active faults, neotectonics, seismotectonics and stress regime, with special attention focused on the Lorca Earthquake. These seismic series are characterized by two types of focal mechanisms, produced mainly by two sets of active faults, NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW small (no larger than 20–30 km) extensional faults with some strike slip component, and E–W to NE–SW large strike slip faults (more than 50 km long) with some compressional component (oblique slip faults). The normal fault earthquakes related to the smaller faults are dominant in the interior of large crustal tectonic blocks that are bounded by the large E–W to NE–SW strike-slip faults. The strike slip earthquakes are associated to the reactivation of segments or intersegment regions of the large E–W to NE–SW faults bounding those crustal tectonic blocks. Most of the seismic series studied in this work can be interpreted as part of the background seismicity that occurs within the crustal blocks that are strained under a transpressional regime driven by the major strike slip shear corridors bounding the blocks. The seismotectonic analysis and the phenomenology of the studied series indicate that it is usual the occurrence of damaging compound earthquakes of M  \(\sim \)  5.0 associated with triggering processes driven by coseismic stress transfer. These processes mainly occur in the seismic series generated by NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW faults. These mechanical interaction processes may induce a higher frequency of occurrence of this kind of earthquakes than considered in traditional probabilistic seismic hazard assessments and it should be taken into account in future seismic hazard assessments.     

Seismicity and seismotectonic deformations of the crust in the Southern Baikal basin

This paper addresses the seismicity of the Southern Baikal basin, where the M _w = 6.0 earthquake of 1999 was the strongest over the period of instrumental observations in this region. Focal mechanisms of background earthquakes and aftershocks are analyzed in relation to faults mapped on flanks of and within the basin. Based on a supplemented catalog of focal mechanisms, the value and direction of seismotectonic strain are evaluated. The results show that the territory to the west of the transverse Angara fault (the Mishikhinskaya depression) experiences deformation of pure extension, while the E-W basin segment west of the fault is subjected to deformation of extension with shear (the transtension regime). The crustal deformation directions as determined from GPS measurements and seismological observations are found to agree well. The average seismotectonic strain rate of the crust amounts to 2.95 × 10^?9 yr^?1, which is about an order of magnitude smaller than the value obtained from geodetic observations.     

Contemporary horizontal movements and seismicity of the south Baikal Basin (Baikal rift system)

The contemporary horizontal movements and deformations in the central and southern parts of the Baikal depression are analyzed, and their relationship with contemporary seismicity is studied. Based on the long-term measurements by the Baikal geodynamical GPS monitoring network, the refined estimate is obtained for the velocity of the divergence of the Siberian and Transbaikalian blocks, which is found to occur in the southeastward direction (130°) at 3.4 ± 0.7 mm per annum. This agrees with the parameters of the long-term extension component estimated from the geological data and with the direction of extension determined from the seismic data. The distribution of the displacement velocity across the strike of the rift, which gradually increases from one block to another, suggests a nonrigid behavior of the continental lithospheric plates at the divergent boundary. About 30% (1.0–1.5 mm per annum) of the total increase in the velocity is accommodated by the Baikal Basin. The strain rate within the trough reaches 3.1 × 10^?8 yr^?1 and decreases on either side across the structure. The character of distribution of the horizontal displacement velocities on the Baikal divergent boundary between the Eurasian and Amurian plates favors the model of passive rifting. The zones of highly contrasting topography and increased seismicity are localized within the area of contemporary deformations, and the seismic moment release rate directly depends on the strain rate. Here, the rate of the seismic moment release rate makes up a few percent of the geodetic moment accumulation rate calculated by the approach suggested by Anderson (1979). Based on the coherence between the graphs of the rates of geodetic moment accumulation and seismic moment release rate by the earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 during the historical and instrumental observation periods, the contemporary seismic hazard for the South Baikal Basin could be assessed at a level of seismic event with M = 7.5–7.6.     

Variations of the electromagnetic fields and ionospheric parameters in the Baikal Rift Zone

Variations in the geomagnetic and electric fields and variations of the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere recorded in the Baikal Rift Zone (BRZ) during the expeditions in 2009 and 2010 are analyzed. Synchronous bursts in the geomagnetic field on the ground and in the ionosphere, which are caused by propagation of electromagnetic disturbances (spherics) generated by the remote lightning discharges, are revealed. The analysis of the occurrence frequency of the electromagnetic disturbances at an altitude of ∼700 km shows that there is a preferred region of predominant propagation of these disturbances from the Earth-ionosphere waveguide to the upper ionosphere. When the ionospheric penetration point moves through this preferred region, the frequency spectrum of TEC variations changes, and the northern boundary of the region of spectral alteration is located at ∼54°N. The bursts in TEC that map on the zones of the main faults in the Tunka valley are identified. The results probably suggest a relation between the electromagnetic phenomena in the ionosphere and the structures in the lithosphere.     

Cyclic variations in the Earth’s flattening and questions of seismotectonics

For more than a decade, the global network of GPS stations whose measurements are part of the International GPS Service (IGS) have been recording cyclic variations in the radius vector of the geodetic ellipsoid with a period of one year and amplitude of ~10 mm. The analysis of the figure of the Earth carried out by us shows that the observed variations in the vertical component of the Earth’s surface displacements can induce small changes in the flattening of the Earth’s figure which are, in turn, caused by the instability of the Earth’s rotation. The variations in the angular velocity and flattening of the Earth change the kinetic energy of the Earth’s rotation. The additional energy is ~10²¹ J. The emerging variations in the flattening of the Earth’s ellipsoid lead to changes in the surface area of the Earth’s figure, cause the development of deformations in rocks, accumulation of damage, activation of seismotectonic processes, and preparation of earthquakes. It is shown that earthquakes can be caused by the instability of the Earth’s rotation which induces pulsations in the shape of the Earth and leads to the development of alternating-sign deformations in the Earth’s solid shell.     

Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Main Seismogenic Zones in North Algeria

—A seismogenic zoning for north Algeria is proposed. The characteristics of each zone are studied in detail and different statistical analyses are performed in order to assess the slope of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, the mean annual activity rate of earthquakes, the average return period, the probability of non-exceedence during a time period and the maximum expected magnitude. The slope of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship determined by traditional methods, physical strain energy release and corresponding magnitude, together with a new approach based on both historical and instrumental data, are used to estimate the seismic hazard parameters.¶The seismic hazard parameters obtained described well the characteristics of each proposed seismogenic zone. The b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship concurs especially well with the most common seismotectonic interpretation of each zone, for example 0.70 ± 0.06 at El Asnam region and 0.63 ± 0.09 around Algiers. The average return period obtained (approximately 300 years for magnitude 7.5 at El Asnam region, exceeding 1000 years in other regions), corroborate those obtained through Paleoseismic studies and others using a digital elevation model.