基于异步迭代算法的冲击地压预测

采用三层BP神经网络方法对冲击地压建立了数学模型。网络的训练算法采用具有松弛因子的动态异步迭代法,该算法在克服网络的麻痹现象及局部极小问题上都优于目前常用的训练方法,因而,采用此算法对网络进行了训练及震级的预报。基于新汶矿务局华丰煤矿1999～2000年的冲击地压现场监测数据,把冲击地压的能量、产生波的幅值、频次做为输入数据,相应期间的最大震级为输出数据,组成神经网络的训练样本及测试样本,对原始数据进行了数学预处理,网络结构采用了输入层3个结点,中间层7个结点,输出层1个结点的前向神经网络;网络最终的训练误差为0.06,预测结果的相对误差率平均为 9.2 %,预测效果比较理想。     

岩石破裂过程中电磁辐射信号特征研究

为了探索震前电磁异常现象的物理机制,许多研究注重于分析岩石破裂过程中产生的电磁辐射信号。对花岗岩样品进行单轴加载,变形直至破裂,记录整个过程中产生的电磁辐射(EME)和声发射(AE)信号,对比分析。这里主要从两个方面分析岩石破裂过程中EME信号的特征:①利用非广延分析方法分析EME的能量分布情况,并与b值分析方法对比,推断岩石破裂类型以及裂纹发育过程;②利用统一等待时间定标律分析EME的时间特征,期望获得岩石破裂过程中EME信号等待时间的分布规律。结果表明,在拟合AE和EME信号的能量分布曲线时,发现b值只能拟合AE部分数据,完全不能拟合EME数据,而非广延参数q可以很好地拟合这两类信号。通过对比分析AE和EME信号的等待时间概率密度的分布情况,发现EME信号的集成效果相对较差,可能不满足统一等待时间定标律。     

Surface oscillations — A possible source of fracture induced electromagnetic radiation

Radio frequency electromagnetic radiation (EMR) registered hundreds of kilometres away from an earthquake epicentre is detected hours before earthquakes. Yet, accurate earthquakes prediction by their self-induced EMR still remains in its infancy due in part to the lack of understanding of EMR's origin. Here we present a viable model of this origin, according to which EMR is emitted by an oscillating dipole created by ions moving collectively as a surface wave on both sides of the crack; when the crack halts, the EMR pulse amplitude decays by interaction with bulk phonons. The model is shown to be able to provide crack dimensions and velocities, to explain some general similarities of different fracturing processes and indicate the existence of a general failure mechanism. Results raise the hope of developing an EMR based genuine earthquake prediction system.     

论公路隧道信息化施工超前地质预报系统与地质灾害预报

文章以京珠国道高速公路旦架哨隧道左右线量测断面1-1和3-1断面为例,对公路隧道信息化施工技术中的超前地质预报进行了深入的探讨.主要采用锚杆轴力和围岩应力量测分析成果,同时结合地面地质调查与观测以及隧道洞内边墙地质观测.前者为定量的现场施工监控量测手段;后者则为定性的研究手段.建立了隧道施工超前地质预报系统框架,即,地勘-设计优化-施工-支护优化-现场监控量测等一系列互动式的反馈序列.成功地对地质灾害进行了预报,有效指导了隧道进行及时的支护与加固,确保了隧道的安全施工.对类似的工程具有很大参考价值.     

Quantifying weather conditions for rock fall hazard management

Relationships between weather conditions and rock fall occurrences have been acknowledged in the past, but seldom have such relationships been quantified and published. Rock falls are frequent hazards along transportation corridors through mountainous terrain, and predicting hazardous rock fall periods based on weather conditions can enhance mitigation approaches. We investigate the relationship between weather conditions and rock fall occurrences along a railway section through the Canadian Cordillera. Monthly weather-rock fall trends suggest that the seasonal variation in rock fall frequency is associated with cycles of freezing and thawing during the winter months. The intensity of precipitation and freeze–thaw cycles for different time-windows was then compared against recorded rock falls on a case-by-case approach. We found that periods when 90% of rock falls occurred could be predicted by the 3-day antecedent precipitation and freeze–thaw cycles. Some rock falls not predicted by this 3-day antecedent approach occurred during the first two weeks of spring thaw. These findings are used to propose a rock fall hazard chart, based on readily available weather data, to aid railway operators in their decision-making regarding safe operations.     

地质灾害预报预警水平的评价

预报预警是防灾减灾的重要手段。目前,我国及各省(直辖市)、自治区广泛开展了地质灾害-气象预报预警工作。因此,对其水平进行科学评价已成为一个重要的研究课题。论文在前人研究的基础上,分析我国地质灾害预报预警现状及对预报预警水平评价时存在的问题,用预报预警成功率衡量预报预警水平,并建立系统的地质灾害预报预警水平评价体系;从地质灾害预报预警需解决的基本问题出发,在充分考虑地质灾害发生“时、空、强”3要素的预报预警范围对预报预警成功率的影响后,相继建立了地质灾害“时、空、强”预报预警成功率、某次灾害预报预警成功率及某时段内地质灾害预报预警成功率模型;在该模型基础上,分别建立某次及某时段内地质灾害预报预警水平整体评价模型。论文提出的评价体系及评价模型符合我国目前地质灾害预报预警现状,为地质灾害预报预警水平评价提供了一条思路。     

深部高压水害隐患探测的井下电磁法技术

在煤矿深部高压水害隐患探测中,井下电磁法发挥着独到的作用。介绍了井下直流电法、井下高密度电阻率法、电透视法、井下瞬变电磁法的工作原理和施工方法,以及顶底板探测、侧帮水害隐患探测、回采工作面水害隐患探测及独头巷道超前探测的效果。结果表明,矿井电磁法对含水低阻体敏感,与探测目的层或地质体近距离接触,对导含水体具有较高的分辨能力,是探测采煤工作面突水隐患的有效方法。     

典型岩石破裂产生次声波试验研究

在刚性材料试验压力机上对花岗岩、灰岩、红砂岩、砂岩、千枚岩及泥岩6种典型的岩石试样进行了单轴全过程加载试验,通过自主研制的数字化次声波探测系统对加载过程中的岩石破裂发射出的次声波信号进行了实时探测。为了研究岩石微破裂过程是否存在发射低频次声波现象及其频率分布等特性,通过小波阈值去噪、短时傅立叶变换（STFT）时-频分析和时域累计振铃计数的方法对数字次声波信号进行了处理与分析。研究结果表明：①岩石在破坏前加载过程中存在明显的发射次声波现象;②岩石破裂产生突出次声信号的频率主要分布在2.0～6.0 Hz之间;③在结构较完整的情况下,硬岩（如花岗岩、灰岩）在变形破裂过程中产生的次声信号数量要比软岩（如泥岩）多。与一般声波相比,因次声波具有不容易衰减,不易被水和空气吸收,波长很长可绕开大型障碍物等独特性质,结合其他方法对岩石破裂产生次声波现象的进一步研究可为岩石（体）稳定性监测提供重要的研究方法和技术手段。     

Characterization and reconstruction of a rock fracture surface by geostatistics

It is well understood that, in studying the mechanical and hydromechanical behaviour of rock joints, their morphology must be taken into account. A geostatistical approach has been developed for characterizing the morphology of fracture surfaces at a decimetre scale. This allows the analysis of the spatial variability of elevations, and their first and second derivatives, with the intention of producing a model that gives a numerical three‐dimensional (3D) representation of the lower and upper surfaces of the fracture. Two samples (I and II) located close together were cored across a natural fracture. The experimental data are the elevations recorded along profiles (using recording steps of 0.5 and 0.02 mm, respectively, for the samples I and II). The goal of this study is to model the surface topography of sample I, so getting estimates for elevations at each node of a square grid whose mesh size will be, for mechanical purposes, no larger than the recording step. Since the fracture surface within the sample core is not strictly horizontal, geostatistical methods are applied to residuals of elevations of sample I. Further, since structural information is necessary at very low scale, theoretical models of variograms of elevations, first and second derivatives are fitted using data of both that sample I and sample II. The geostatistical reconstructions are computed using kriging and conditional simulation methods. In order to validate these reconstructions, variograms and distributions of experimental data are compared with variograms and distributions of the fitted data. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

爆炸气体驱动下岩体破裂的有限元-离散元模拟

在原有有限元/离散元（FEM/DEM）耦合分析方法中,实现了一种新的爆破计算模型。该模型考虑了在爆生气体的作用下,随着裂隙的扩展,气体占据的体积不断增大,气体压力逐渐减小这一问题。同时考虑了气体嵌入与爆腔联通的裂隙对裂隙的作用力。克服了原有FEM/DEM方法中的爆破模型仅仅将压力施加于爆腔四周的岩壁上,无法考虑爆生气体嵌入生成的裂隙对裂隙的作用。提出了一种新颖的贯通裂隙网络形成的递归搜索算法,只需通过编写一个简单的递归函数,即可实现复杂裂隙网络的搜索,采用一种简洁的方法完成了对复杂问题的处理。最后通过一个爆破算例,结果表明FEM/DEM方法可以对爆炸过程中应力波的传播及岩体中裂纹的萌生、扩展进行全程捕捉,展现了该方法用于爆破模拟的潜力。     

宁夏汛期地质灾害预报模型研究

文章通过二十多年来宁夏发生地质灾害的概况，阐述了宁夏主要地质灾害类型、分布和形成机理。针对地质灾害易发区的分布状况及降雨对地质灾害的触发作用，初步探讨了降雨与地质灾害发生之间的关系，建立了汛期地质灾害预报模型。分析了该模型在2004年地质灾害预报中的应用情况及实用性，为进一步做好地质灾害气象预报工作打下一定的基础。     

Control of hazard due to seismicity induced by a hot fractured rock geothermal project

In 2003 hydraulic stimulations were carried out in a geothermal field in eastern El Salvador, Central America, as part of a project to explore the feasibility of commercial hot fractured rock energy generation. A key requisite for this environmentally friendly energy source is that the fracturing of the hot rocks at depths of 1–2 km must not produce levels of ground shaking at the surface that would present a serious disturbance or threat to the local population. Thresholds of tolerable ground motion were inferred from guidelines and regulations on tolerable levels of vibration and from correlations between instrumental strong-motion parameters and intensity, considering the vulnerability of the exposed housing stock. The thresholds were defined in terms of peak ground velocity (PGV) and incorporated into a “traffic light” system that also took account of the frequency of occurrence of the induced earthquakes. The system was implemented through a dedicated seismograph array and locally derived predictive equations for PGV. The “traffic light” was used as a decision-making tool regarding the duration and intensity of pumping levels during the hydraulic stimulations. The system was supplemented by a small number of accelerographs and re-calibrated using records obtained during the rock fracturing.     

岩石断裂表面的分形模拟

根据岩石断裂表面粗糙度所具有的统计自仿射分形的特征,提出了改进的自仿射分形插值的概念。运用改进的自仿射分形插值方法,根据实测岩石断裂表面粗糙度数据,对岩石断裂表面粗糙形态进行了分形模拟,给出了二元分形插值数学模型。将以不同数量的观测数据模拟出的插值曲面与实际测量的岩石断裂表面相比较,得出了不同数量信息点的模拟精度,它们之间的关系曲线显示为幂函数关系的规律。这就意味着不仅可以得到模拟结果,还可以得到模拟结果的估计精度。运用少量已知数据值,模拟出未知曲面,给出了由局部模拟整体的方法这对于根据少量数据研究、模拟和直观显示复杂物体的几何形态,如地形地貌、断层表面和材料裂隙表面,具有重要的应用意义。     

Experimental study of fracture processes in rock

Summary The Fracture process zone in compact tension specimens of Indiana limestone was investigated to study its effect on the fracture mechanics parameters in such materials. Specimens were tested up to the peak load, and propagation of the crack from a preexisting notch was monitored. Experiments were designed to study the two features of the fracture process zone in rocks: ligament connections and microcracking.To observe this zone with high sensitivity and accuracy, laser interferometry methods were adopted. Holographic Interferometry was used to observe initial crack propagation. To obtain more quantitative measurements of the displacement field, in realtime, the recently developed technique of electronic speckle pattern interferometry was applied. This technique can provide continuous video recording of the interferometric fringe pattern, depict the evolution of the fracture process, and measure profiles of crack opening displacements.The macroscopic observations of full-field displacement by the laser techniques were supplemented by post mortem observation of the fracture region under a scanning electron microscope. Regions around the crack were studied after the test for possible presence of microcracks.An interactive finite element code was used to compute the stress intensity factors of the propagating crack-tip and displacements. Finite element computations were used to evaluate the effect of the process zone on crack propagation.     

Numerical modelling of heat shock-assisted rock fracture

This paper presents a numerical investigation on the effects of thermal shock as a pretreatment of rock prior to comminution. More specifically, the effect of heat shock-induced cracks on the uniaxial compressive strength of rock is numerically studied. The chosen constitutive model of rock employs a (strong) embedded discontinuity finite element formulation to describe cracks. The thermomechanical problem that governs the heat shock pretreatment of rocks is considered as an uncoupled problem because of a highly dominating role of the external heat influx. Two solution methods of the global problem are presented: an explicit-explicit dynamic scheme and an implicit-implicit quasi-static scheme. The model performance is tested in simulations on heterogeneous numerical rock samples subjected first to a heat shock pretreatment and then to a mechanical compression test. According to the results, the compressive strength of intact granite rock having the axial splitting failure mode can be substantially reduced by heat shock pretreatment.     

Finite element models for rock fracture mechanics

A finite element model for the prediction of discrete fracture propagation in rock structures loaded in compression is presented. The model integrates any one of three theories for mixed-mode fracture initiation; it contains an energy balance algorithm for predicting crack increment length, and incorporates recent developments in finite element stress-intensity factor computation. The predictions of the model are compared with the observed fracture response of a real rock structure. Results show that the model accurately predicts both stable and unstable fracture progagations observed experimentally.     

基于三维GIS的滑坡灾害监测预警系统及应用

为了减少或消除地质灾害的影响,基于地质勘察与监测资料,利用先进的计算机技术和三维可视化技术建立地质灾害监测预警系统显得十分的必要。在研究利用TIN方法建立地质体模型的基础上,将自动获取的监测数据通过北斗卫星的传输和三维地质体模型有机结合,进一步利用基于时间序列的方法,对监测数据进行预测分析,形成了一套完整的三维滑坡灾害预警系统,并提供剖面分析等实用GIS分析工具,从而提高滑坡灾害预警的快速性和直观性。基于四川雅安滑坡的工程实例,验证了系统的有效性。     

A multiple fracture model of pre-seismic electromagnetic phenomena

Among three main stages of the process of earthquake nucleation long-, middle- and short-term the final stage is characterized by abrupt activation of the process of stress-strain state variation. The strain rates increase by orders of magnitude throughout the whole region of preparation, which increases the signal-to-noise ratio, and therefore the fracture, is easier to detect through monitoring geophysical parameters. The near-critical stresses existing in the Earth's crust and near the surface make it necessary to take into account the real rheology of the rocks, which, as is well known, is characterized by clearly pronounced plastic properties. The condition is favorable for developing creep processes in general and in its avalanche phase immediately before the fracture. The process is completely nonlinear but not chaotic. Based on the assumption that the attenuation of the stress-strain field is proportional to r^− 3, a possible scenario of the final stage of earthquake nucleation process is proposed on the basis of the slip weakening mechanism in the source and the associated mosaic pattern of precursors on the Earth's surface. The formulas for estimating the ultimate distance of precursor detection and the duration of precursor events depending of normalized epicentral distance at the final stage of inelastic deformation preceding brittle failure of rocks are proposed. The data of electromagnetic precursors are interpreted in terms of a multiple fracture model. The results of in situ observations of electric field anomalies in the atmosphere are analyzed in relation to seismic activity. The possibility of constructing a physical model for the generation of a quasi-stable field and electromagnetic emission on the basis of the deformation process prior to an earthquake is discussed. Numerical estimates are obtained for polarization density and life time of an ensemble of electric dipoles generated in surface layers of the crust due to opening of microcracks and other dislocation mechanisms. The origin of quasi-constant electric field along a deformation region on a scale of the preparation zone is advantageous for the propagation of seismic anomalous atmospheric electric fields from the Earth's surface into the ionosphere. The field can be regarded as a physical agent of lithosphere–ionosphere connection.