中尺度扰动不稳定的数值研究

利用一个二维Boussinesq流体的绝热无粘非静力数值模式,将中尺度不稳定问题作为一个初值问题进行数值研究.线性情况下数值试验的结果基本与采用特征值方法研究得到的结论一致.非线性情况的数值试验表明,其不稳定发生的范围可与线性情况不一致;非线性不稳定的增长率一般较线性不稳定的增长率要小;非线性作用会造成波型的陡凸,从而造成流函数正负环流的不对称和环流流线的密集;非线性情形下的流型有些与强对流系统的流型相像.     

台风莫拉克登陆期间的中尺度波动特征分析

利用波作用理论对台风莫拉克登陆期间的降水进行诊断分析。结果表明:波作用密度异常能在一定程度上指示暴雨雨区发展移动,其异常值的空间分布能够反映雨区上空动力场和热力场的典型垂直结构特征。台风内中尺度波动与暴雨落区宏观上具有一定联系。为了详细研究台风内部的波动特征,利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting model)模式模拟的高分辨率资料对台风登陆过程中波动特征进行分析,低波数波动的传播主导强对流的非对称分布,2波在登陆初期对对流分布起着关键作用,中尺度波动中同时存在涡旋罗斯贝波以及重力惯性波的特征,对登陆期间涡旋混合的现象有重要作用。     

2018年陕西商洛一次罕见强雹暴环境条件及雷达特征分析

利用商洛天气雷达资料和相关实况资料,对2018年5月15日午后商南地区一次强雹暴天气的环境条件和雷达回波结构演变特征进行了详细分析。结果表明：（１）雹暴发生在低层气旋暖区,中层有冷温槽发展东移,高层有急流的背景下,0 ℃层高度为43 km,-20 ℃层高度为75 km。地面中尺度辐合线触发的对流云团在不稳定层结和较强垂直风切变作用下发展为超级单体风暴。（２）强雹暴的低层反射率因子呈现出明显的钩状回波或倒“Ｖ”型入流缺口,并伴有三体散射长钉等特征。回波顶高度达11 km左右,最大VIL值达77 kg/m2。反射率因子垂直剖面呈现出典型的有界弱回波区、回波悬垂和回波墙。最大的回波强度出现在沿着回波墙的一个竖直的狭长区域,中心值达到65 dBz以上。相应的中低层径向速度图存在明显辐合区,有利于强上升气流发展。（３）此次强雹暴天气在西北东部较为罕见,前人总结的冰雹各项潜势预报指标具有一定局限性,垂直液态积分水含量密度（VIL密度）跃增能更好地提前指示大冰雹。因而可用VIL密度值明显跃增至55 g/m3提前24 min预警大冰雹,进一步补充和完善陕西极端突发强天气预警指标。     

河北唐山一次飑线过程的中尺度天气分析

利用常规观测资料、自动气象站资料及雷达资料,对2013年8月4日影响唐山的一次飑线过程进行了中尺度分析。结果表明:500 hPa高空槽是产生这次飑线的主要影响系统,地面中尺度辐合线是这次过程的触发机制;对流层中层干冷空气入侵与低层暖湿气流的辐合增强了大气层结的不稳定;低层辐合、高层辐散进一步加强了垂直运动的发展;中低层垂直风切变则有利于飑线的发展、加强和维持。雷达回波图上可识别出中低空的中尺度辐合线、弓形回波、逆风区等中小尺度结构特征,对于此类强对流性天气的预报具有实际指示意义。     

新疆百里风区强风中尺度特征分析

大尺度环流背景和天山山脉大地形共同作用形成新疆百里风区,其风力之大居全疆九大风区之首。为进一步研究百里风区强风中尺度特征及其与局地地形的关系,选取2018年5月6—8日百里风区强风天气过程,使用WRF模式进行中尺度模拟分析,形成以下结论：天山两侧气压梯度力驱动下冷空气翻越天山,经色皮山口狭管效应和过山波水跃下沉接力加速,在背风坡上空形成强风区,强风区接地形成百里风区地面大风;大风过程中,七角井盆地地形强迫引发有限振幅重力波,背风坡上空大风区之上的临界层吸收上层能量并向下传递,增大了大风区的风速,使得低空大风区的接地更加充分。低空大气稳定层结的强度与大风强度相对应。     

中尺度对称不稳定和横波不稳定的波动性质

使用纬向线性以及非线性切变基流下中尺度扰动的Boussinesq近似方程组，讨论了两种典型的中尺度扰动发生对称不稳定或者横波不稳定时，其不稳定的一些特征以及扰动的波动性质。研究结果表明：（1）对于扰动的等位相面平行于基本气流方向的对称性扰动来说，对称不稳定的波动实质是沿着与基本气流方向相垂直的方向传播的重力惯性内波的不稳定。基流二次切变对于中尺度对称扰动来说是一个不稳定因子，并且驱动不稳定的中尺度对称扰动在南北方向传播；（2）对于扰动的等位相面垂直于基本气流方向的横波性扰动来说，在基本气流为常数或者只具有线性切变的情况下，此时根本不存在涡旋Rossby波，横波不稳定的波动实质则是沿着基本气流方向双向传播的重力惯性内波的不稳定。如果考虑基本流场的风速存在二次切变或者非线性切变时，此时就会产生一支新的波动（涡旋Rossby波），涡旋Rossby波相对于基本气流^-U0是单向传播的，涡旋Rossby波产生的物理根源是基本流场的风速^-U二次切变（β＊=^-Uzz≠0），此时横波型不稳定可能是混合的涡旋Rossby——重力波的不稳定。实际大气中，涡旋Rossby波对于中够尺度对流云核、暴雨团等天气系统的发生、发展和演变的物理机制具有极其重要的意义。     

圆形涡旋中心非对称扰动的斜压不稳定研究

涡旋中的非对称扰动又是一种较为常见的流体运动现象,如不成熟飓风中出现的中尺度深厚对流云区（又称圆形抽气云CEC）,热带风暴发展时的不对称性以及环流中心往往位于浓密云区的边缘等,都是涡旋中存在不对称扰动的表现形式。然而对于涡旋中非对称扰动的稳定性问题的研究,目前还比较少。文中从柱坐标下的斜压模式出发,研究了热带气旋等一类涡旋中心的非对称扰动的不稳定问题,结果表明：（1）与平直的基本流相比,涡旋中更容易出现斜压不稳定,扰动更容易发展;（2）不稳定可以使涡旋中的能量由基本场向扰动场转换,涡旋变得不对称。扰动是一种重力内波,其传播速度远小于基本流角速度,有些甚至逆基本流缓慢倒转;（3）在通常的稳定度参数条件下,发展扰动主要集中在高层,从结构上看,扰动的倾斜度大。当稳定度参数很小时,扰动可扩展到整个对流层,倾斜度较小;（4）高层反气旋也可以激发出不稳定内波,这种扰动在低层表现明显。当稳定度参数较小时,扰动发展较快,并且也以很小的速度倒转。     

斜压大气中尺度横波扰动的发展

为探索带状中尺度扰动发生发展的可能性及其对深厚对流云团的启动和组织作用。本文利用准动量无辐散二维模式讨论了斜压切变基流上中尺度横波扰动的发展问题。首先导出波能密度和波作用量，然后利用ＷＫＢ方法分析了波包的传播，建立波作用量方程，进而从波作用量方程出发，分别讨论了大气中各种层结下横波型扰动发展的物理背景条件。     

热带风暴"菲特"(0114)特大暴雨的诊断研究

海南岛破历史记录的两场特大暴雨都是由穿过琼州海峡的台风所造成,热带风暴"菲特"(Fitow)就是其中的一个.由红外卫星云图、雷达和常规地面加密观测资料发现,当"菲特"穿越琼州海峡时,在其西南侧的海南岛五指山西北侧有一个中尺度对流小涡系统(MCS)生成.特大暴雨就出现在MCS所在地区.作者用PSU/NCAR的中尺度模式对这场暴雨和MCS作了模拟研究,发现当"菲特"穿越琼州海峡时,其外围流场和五指山山脉的辐合极有利于MCS的生成.诊断分析的结果表明,山脉地形生成的MCS,具有很强的上层辐散,中低空有大范围辐合和强的正涡度场.在暴雨加强时,正涡度向中层伸展,高层辐散明显加强.同时, 暴雨区出现较强的垂直运动.上升运动大值区出现在对流层上层,这可能和上层辐散加强有关.这场暴雨的水汽来自南海北部,经由"菲特"东侧的西南气流卷入涡旋之中, 产生较强的水汽辐合.这也是潜热供应的源.诊断分析的结果还表明, MCS所在大气中下层出现了较强的位势不稳定层结,这对这场暴雨提供了对流加强和水汽向上输送的热力条件.     

中尺度对称不稳定在远距离台风暴雨中的诊断应用

用中尺度对称不稳定“Ｓ”判据对９７１１号远距离台风暴雨过程进行了诊断分析,结果表明;台风远距离雨区存在明显的对称不稳定降水。低层Ｓ〈０的区域作对称不稳定区,与后期台风远距离不有比较好的对应,可以作为远距离台风暴雨落区的一个指标。     

Application of the Energy-Casimir Method to the Study of Mesoscale Disturbance Stability

Taking into account the effect of moisture, we derive a three-dimensional pseudoenergy wave-activity relation for moist atmosphere from the primitive zonal momentum and total energy equations in Cartesian coordinates by using the energy-Casimir method. In the derivation, a Casimir function is introduced, which is a single-wlue function of virtual potential temperature. Since the pseudoenergy wave-activity relation is constructed in the ageostrophic and nonhydrostatic dynamical framework, it may be applicable to diagnosing the stability of mesoscale disturbance systems in a steady-stratified atmosphere. The theoretical analysis shows that the wave-activity relation takes a nonconservative form in which the pseudoenergy wave-activity density is composed of perturbation kinetic energy, available potential energy, and buoyant energy. The local change of pseudoenergy wave-activity density depends on the combined effects of zonal basic flow shear, Coriolis force work and wave-activity source or sink as well as wave-activity flux divergence. The diagnosis shows that horizontal distribution and temporal trend of pseudoenergy wave-activity density are similar to those of the observed 6-h accumulated surface rainfall. This suggests that the pseudoenergy wave-activity density is capable of representing the dynamical and thermodynamic features of mesoscale precipitable systems in the mid-lower troposphere, so it is closely related to the observed surface rainfall. The calculation of the terms in the wave-activity relation reveals that the wave-activity flux divergence shares a similar temporal trend with the local change of pseudoenergy wave-activity density and the observed surface rainfall. Although the terms of zonal basic flow shear and Coriolis force contribute to the local change of pseudoenergy wave-activity density, the contribution from the wave-activity flux divergence is much more significant.     

扰动位涡倾向方程在两类中尺度低压演变分析中的应用

为研究暴雨过程中尺度低压系统的演变, 推导出非守恒条件下的位涡方程并简化得出中尺度扰动位涡倾向方程, 以广西一次特大暴雨过程为例, 验证方程在分析中尺度系统发展演变中的有效性和可操作性, 并分析了暴雨过程中两类中低压的不同演变因子。结果表明: (1) 中尺度扰动位涡大值中心的演变对中尺度低压系统的发展演变具有较好的指示意义; (2) 推导出的包含非绝热加热作用项的中尺度扰动位涡倾向方程, 可用来揭示凝结加热潜热对中尺度低压系统发展演变的作用; (3) 利用中尺度扰动位涡倾向方程定量分析凝结加热的贡献, 是区分引发降水的中尺度系统和降水过程中凝结加热强迫出的中尺度系统的方法, 对研究凝结加热和不同类型中尺度系统之间的相互作用具有重要意义。     

A three-dimensional study of mesoscale model response to radiative forcing

An infrared radiation parameterization has been applied to a detailed three-dimensional mesoscale model in order to determine whether radiative forcing significantly affects mesoscale atmospheric processes. By taking into account water vapor, liquid water, and carbon dioxide absorption, the scheme differentiates between cloud and clear air regions. The parametric model is presented, along with an overview of the associated mesoscale model.Comparisons between a control run in which only a uniform cooling rate of l K day^–1 is specified, and runs with the infrared scheme are made for 12-hr simulations. The major feature of the radiative forcing is seen to be strong cloud-top cooling. This leads to enhanced destabilization of the upper cloud layer, which in turn results in faster growth of clouds (and which extend to higher levels) than in the control experiment. The deeper clouds force a more vigorous secondary circulation, in which thermodynamic feedbacks between clouds and their environment are substantially stronger than in the case with only a constant cooling rate. This confirms findings made in previous studies undertaken in small-scale numerical models. The discussion also focuses upon a simulation in which the cloud-top infrared cooling has been smoothed out over neighboring vertical levels, in order to represent a cloud-top height distribution crudely. The results indicate that although the absolute values of cloud-top cooling are reduced with respect to the unfiltered case, the fact that cooling extends even higher than previously predicted leads to the formation of thicker, more vigorous clouds. These clouds interact more intensely with their environment than in the unfiltered situation, thereby considerably modifying the mesoscale atmosphere.     

Application of the E-ε closure model to simulations of mesoscale topographic effects

A mesoscale Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) model with a simple turbulence closure scheme based on the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) equation and the dissipation () equation is used to simulate atmospheric flow over mesoscale topography. Comparative studies with different parameterizations suggest that with a proper closure assumption for turbulence dissipation, the E-model can simulate the circulation induced by the mesoscale topography with results similar to those obtained using the E- model. On the other hand, the first-order closure using O'Brien's cubic interpolation for eddy diffusivities (K) generally produces much larger K profiles in the stable and the unstable regions, which is believed to be due to the overprediction of the height of the PBL. All models with the TKE equation yield quite similar ensemble mean fields, which are found to be little sensitive to the closure assumption for turbulence dissipation, though their predicted magnitudes of TKE and K may differ appreciably. A discussion on the diurnal evolution of the mesoscale topography-induced circulation and the spatial variations of the turbulence fluxes in the surface layer is also given based on the E- model results.     

Numerical study of mesoscale cellular convection

Mesoscale cellular convections over the East China Sea during cold air outbreaks are simulated with a high-resolution numerical model. The model incorporates important physical processes involved in shallow convection, such as the exchange of heat and moisture between water and air; condensation; evaporation; and vertical turbulent transfer of heat, moisture, and momentum.The results show that open cells develop with aspect ratios as large as 14. The structure of the convection is examined in detail. The organized mesoscale circulation is responsible for breaking up the initial stratus cloud deck and enhancing turbulence in the upward-moving area (especially inside cumulus clouds). However, it is found that the heat flux contributed by MCC's themselves is much smaller than the eddy heat flux.     

结合中尺度模式物理约束的雷达回波临近外推预报方法研究

研究设计了一种结合中尺度模式物理约束的雷达回波临近智能外推预报方法,该方法在外推预报时效(0—2 h)内即利用中尺度高分辨率模式信息对外推进行约束.首先将模式风场和雷达回波轨迹风场融合成融合风场,然后利用融合风场光流外推形成动力约束外推;并在此基础上利用模式诊断产品和雷达历史资料通过投票回归器集成多种深度学习算法构建回...     

Properties and stability of a meso-scale line-form disturbance

By using the 3D dynamic equations for small- and meso-scale disturbances, an investigation is performed on the heterotropic instability (including symmetric instability and traversal-type instability) of a zonal line-like disturbance moving at any angle with respect to basic flow, arriving at the following results: (1) with linear shear available, the heterotropic instability of the disturbance will occur only when flow shearing happens in the direction of the line-like disturbance movement or in the direction perpendicular to the disturbance movement, with the heterotropic instability showing the instability of the internal inertial gravity wave; (2) in the presence of second-order non-linear shear, the disturbance of the heterotropic instability includes internal inertial gravity and vortex Rossby waves. For the zonal line-form disturbance under study, the vortex Rossby wave has its source in the second-order shear of meridional basic wind speed in the flow and propagates unidirectionally with respect to the meridional basic flow. As a mesoscale heterotropic instable disturbance, the vortex Rossby wave has its origin from the second shear of the flow in the direction perpendicular to the line-form disturbance and is independent of the condition in the direction parallel to the flow; (3) for general zonal line-like disturbances, if the second-order shear happens in the meridional wind speed, i.e., the second shear of the flow in the direction perpendicular to the line-form disturbance, then the heterotropic instability of the disturbance is likely to be the instability of a mixed Rossby–internal inertial gravity wave; (4) the symmetric instability is actually the instability of the internal inertial gravity wave. The second-order shear in the flow represents an instable factor for a symmetric-type disturbance; (5) the instability of a traversal-type disturbance is the instability of the internal inertial gravity wave when the basic flow is constant or only linearly sheared. With a second or nonlinear vertical shear of the basic flow taken into account, the instability of a traversal-type disturbance may be the instability of a mixed vortex Rossby – gravity wave.