Q矢量及其在天气诊断分析中应用研究的进展

对Ｑ矢量的理论研究的动态及其主要应用结果作了综合评述,并对该领域的研究前景作了一定的展望。     

陆面过程研究的进展

文中首先阐述陆面过程研究的必要性和复杂性。然后，对陆面过程研究的任务和内容作了较详细的说明，进而对陆面过程研究的进展现状和未来发展方向作了讨论。     

年代际气候变率问题的研究

对年代际气候变率的研究工作和主要结果作了综合评述，并对该领域的研究前景作了一定的阐述。     

风暴轴的研究

从风暴轴的三维结构、时间演变、维持机制及其与平均气流间的相互作用等方面出发,对风暴轴的研究动态和主要结构作了评述,并对该领域的研究前景作了一定的展望 。     

长春市逆温层及其对大气污染的影响分析

本文根据长春市气象站１９９３～１９９５年每日０７时和１９时的高空观测资料，对有关送温层的数据作了统计和研究，并在此基础上对长春市上空边界层内逆温分布的类型和变化规律作了分析论证，这对城市大气污染规律的研究具有重要意义。     

最大熵原理对大气状态的约束

本文对分布函数概念,对已经找到的重要的气象中的分布函数,对如何从熵原理去理解它们作了综合介绍.文中还对如何将此用于数值天气预告、气候变迁研究作了分析.     

大气非平衡运动的演变与跳跃式暴雨过程

对１９９４年６月２４￣２６日长江中上游地区出现的一次跳跃式暴雨过程作了诊断研究，结果指出，对流层高层地转不平衡运动及低空急流的变化是造成降水系统生消演变的重要因素，并对地面天气系统的发生发展作了较详细的分析研究。     

21世纪西北太平洋台风变化预估

对近年多个气候模式考虑不同的人类排放情景作了总结,并对21世纪西北太平洋台风变化作了预估。研究表明,集成多个气候模式考虑人类排放情景,预估到21世纪后期,西北太平洋年总编号台风数可能减少,但强台风数及其降水和风速可能增强。需要强调的是,台风的长期预估是极其困难的,存在极大的不确定性,有待作更深入的研究。     

热带气旋强度变化的cliper预报方案

—、前言对于热带气旋强度变化和台风的发生发展,前人已作了大量的分析和研究。但是,对于台风和热带气旋强度变化的客观预报方祛,研究得并不多。在这方面做得较早的有RL·Elsbrry等人,他们建立了预报台风和热带气旋强度的24、48和72小时变化的回归方程。近几年来林有任和笔者分别用统计和动力统计的方法对台风和热带气旋的强度变化的预报作了研究,并得到了客观预报方程。本文将用气候持续性方案对台风和热带气旋的强度变化作一些研究分析。     

新疆主要气象灾害研究的进展

对新疆主要气象灾害研究的进展情况，分别作了综述和评价。     

ECMWF极端天气指数在华东台风降水预报中的应用和检验

选取2015—2018年影响华东地区的13个台风个例,分析降水极端天气指数EFI(Extreme Forecast Index)和SOT(Shift of Tails)与台风降水之间的统计关系。结果表明：EFI和SOT与降水气候百分位之间存在明显的正相关关系。EFI和SOT越大,强降水发生概率越高。随着预报时效的增加,EFI和SOT指数对暴雨和大暴雨的预报效果逐渐变差。对于短期(72 h以内的时效),EFI预报技巧优于SOT,而随着预报时效的延长,SOT的预报技巧逐渐接近并超过EFI。以TS评分最大为标准兼顾合理的预报偏差,得到两种极端天气指数不同预报时效、不同等级暴雨的预报阈值。总体而言,事件越极端,EFI和SOT的预报阈值越大,对于暴雨和大暴雨,EFI指数的预报阈值随着预报时效的延长有减小趋势,而SOT的预报阈值基本保持不变。在台风极端降水预报中,EFI和SOT可以作为EC定量降水预报的补充,有助于减少强降水的漏报,并提早发出预警信息。     

中国冰冻圈变化的适应研究：进展与展望

冰冻圈变化的适应研究是冰冻圈科学领域的新兴研究方向,是当今自然科学与社会科学交叉融合跨学科集成研究的典型代表。起步于2007年的中国冰冻圈变化适应研究,经历了早期的探索,研究重点由评价脆弱性发展为量化冰冻圈变化的影响,形成以影响/风险—脆弱性—适应全链条的完善的研究体系,研究方法突破传统的指标体系赋权法的不足,初步实现了定量化,有机结合影响/风险、脆弱性、适应三方面的研究结果,使冰冻圈变化的适应措施由偏重宏观性、普适性开始转向更有针对性。未来中国冰冻圈变化的适应研究应拓展、完善和深化现有的理论体系,构建冰冻圈与社会经济耦合模型,科学量化冰冻圈全要素变化的影响,建立不同利益相关者与科学家共同参与的研究新模式,科学有效应对与适应冰冻圈变化及其影响。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

自然控制论

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Light-absorbing particles in snow and ice: Measurement and modeling of climatic and hydrological impact

Light absorbing particles(LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust) influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance(a.k.a., surface darkening), which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice(LAPSI) has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g.in the fourth and fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, and climatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.     

A political ecology of maladaptation: Insights from a Gramscian theory of the State

This article analyzes a political process in the aftermath of a disaster and explains why and how it led to maladaptation. Grounding Gramsci’s theory of the State on a case of post-disaster response to a fatal mudslide in the city of Sarno in Italy, this research argues that, under certain conditions, civil society and the ruling classes may coalesce to produce policies that are maladaptive. We unpack the mechanisms through which consent was reproduced in Sarno, and show how the claims of civil society were articulated and fused with the hegemonic goals of capital circulation and economic growth, reaffirming a view of government as only a provider of safety. A Gramscian treatment of the State as a process, and not as a thing, highlights that the main barrier to adaptation is not the lack of techno-managerial solutions. It is the lack of political struggle around the social reconfiguration of the logic and functions of the State.     

天津市静海区暴雨灾害风险精细化评估

根据天津市静海区18个乡镇2009—2018年逐时降水量,以及社会经济、地理地形、水利设施等数据,结合历史受灾信息,分别对静海区的暴雨致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性及防灾减灾能力进行分析,采用GIS技术和统计方法多因子叠加,综合得出静海地区暴雨灾害风险精细化评估和区划。研究发现,静海区北部区域以及南部中旺镇及其周边风险较高,而静海地区中部的风险较低;暴雨灾害高风险区主要分布在致灾因子敏感性、承灾体易损性较高而防灾减灾能力较低的静海镇和梁头镇及其周边,应加强防灾减灾设施建设。     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

敦煌气候条件及对棉花产量因素的影响

甘肃敦煌地区气候条件虽然适宜棉花生长,但热量条件处于棉花正常生长适宜指标的下线,对棉花的产量和质量具有较大影响。利用敦煌市国家基准气象观测站1983~2012年农业气象观测资料,统计分析了敦煌棉花全生育期气象条件对棉花的株铃数、单铃重及僵烂铃率、蕾铃脱落率及产量的影响。结果表明：棉花花蕾期气温、花后热量和花期气温、裂铃吐絮阶段灌水量是造成棉花僵烂铃和蕾铃脱落的主要原因。花铃期的平均气温越高,热量越充足,越有利于棉铃数的增加;7月上旬至8月中旬夜温不足降低了棉株矿物质和贮存物的积累速率,导致花蕾及胚珠发育不良,单铃胚珠数减少;盛夏7月中旬高温造成棉铃代谢紊乱,导致单铃不孕,造成株铃数不足和单铃重下降,进而影响棉花产量。     

基于中国全球海洋预报系统(CGOFS)的全球高分辨率再分析产品评估

通过同化系统将观测资料与海洋数值模式融合得到的海洋再分析产品为海洋科学研究提供了重要的资料基础.本文采用WOA,SODA,AVISO和GLORS四种数据资料与我国自主研发的中国全球海洋预报系统(CGOFS)的气候态结果进行了对比,结果表明:CGOFS和SODA的全球海表面温度与WOA的均方根误差分别为0.51和0.43℃.CGOFS和SODA的海表面盐度与WOA的均方根误差分别为0.48和0.40 PSU;海流方面,CGOFS能较好的刻画主要大洋环流分布及赤道潜流的垂向结构;CGOFS的全球海表面高度异常与AVISO的均方根误差为0.018m;多年月平均海冰外缘线覆盖面积介于SODA和GLORS之间,海冰体积的生消规律与SODA和GLORS一致.总体来看,CGOFS全球高分辨率海洋再分析产品的气候态结果与国际同类产品基本一致,可为提升我国海洋综合科技实力提供可靠的资料保障.