Modelling larval dispersal and settlement of the reef-building polychaete Sabellaria alveolata: Role of hydroclimatic processes on the sustainability of biogenic reefs

The honeycomb worm Sabellaria alveolata forms biogenic reefs which constitute diversity hotspots on tidal flats. The largest known reefs in Europe, located in the Bay of Mont-Saint-Michel (English Channel), are suffering increasing anthropogenic disturbances which raise the question of their sustainability. As the ability to recover depends partly on the recolonization of damaged reefs by larval supply, evaluating larval dispersal and the connectivity between distant reefs is a major challenge for their conservation. In the present study, we used a 3D biophysical model to simulate larval dispersal under realistic hydroclimatic conditions and estimate larval retention and exchanges among the two reefs of different sizes within the bay. The model takes into account fine-scale hydrodynamic circulation (800×800 m²), advection–diffusion larval transport, and gregarious settlement behaviour. According to the field data, larval dispersal was simulated for a minimal planktonic larval duration ranging from 4 to 8 weeks and the larval mortality was set to 0.09 d⁻¹. The results highlighted the role played by a coastal eddy on larval retention within the bay, as suggested by previous in situ observations. Very different dispersal patterns were revealed depending on the spawning reef location, although the two reefs were located only 15 km apart. The settlement success of the larvae released from the smallest reef was mainly related to tidal conditions at spawning, with the highest settlement success for releases at neap tide. The settlement success of the larvae from the biggest reef was more dependent on meteorological conditions: favourable W and SW winds may promote a ten-fold increase in settlement success. Strong year-to-year variability was observed in settlers’ numbers, with favourable environmental windows not always coinciding with the main reproductive periods of Sabellaria. Settlement kinetics indicated that the ability to delay metamorphosis could significantly improve the settlement success. Although bidirectional exchanges occurred between the two reefs, the highest settlers’ numbers originated from the biggest reef because of its stronger reproductive output. Because of the recent decline of this reef due to increasing anthropogenic disturbances larval supply in the bay may not be sufficient enough to ensure the sustainability of the remarkable habitat formed by Sabellaria alveolata reefs.     

Diving down the reefs? Intensive diving tourism threatens the reefs of the northern Red Sea

Intensive recreational SCUBA diving threatens coral reef ecosystems. The reefs at Dahab, South Sinai, Egypt, are among the world’s most dived (>30,000 dives y⁻¹). We compared frequently dived sites to sites with no or little diving. Benthic communities and condition of corals were examined by the point intercept sampling method in the reef crest zone (3 m) and reef slope zone (12 m). Additionally, the abundance of corallivorous and herbivorous fish was estimated based on the visual census method. Sediments traps recorded the sedimentation rates caused by SCUBA divers. Zones subject to intensive SCUBA diving showed a significantly higher number of broken and damaged corals and significantly lower coral cover. Reef crest coral communities were significantly more affected than those of the reef slope: 95% of the broken colonies were branching ones. No effect of diving on the abundance of corallivorous and herbivorous fish was evident. At heavily used dive sites, diver-related sedimentation rates significantly decreased with increasing distance from the entrance, indicating poor buoyancy regulation at the initial phase of the dive. The results show a high negative impact of current SCUBA diving intensities on coral communities and coral condition. Corallivorous and herbivorous fishes are apparently not yet affected, but are endangered if coral cover decline continues. Reducing the number of dives per year, ecologically sustainable dive plans for individual sites, and reinforcing the environmental education of both dive guides and recreational divers are essential to conserve the ecological and the aesthetic qualities of these dive sites.     

Temporal variability in the life history and reproductive biology of female dugongs in Torres Strait: The likely role of sea grass dieback

The extensive sea grass meadows in Torres Strait enable it to be a globally important habitat for the dugong, Dugong dugon, a marine mammal of cultural and dietary significance to Torres Strait Islanders and the basis for the substantial island-based fishery in the Torres Strait Protected Zone. Torres Strait sea grass communities are subjected to episodic diebacks which are now believed to be largely natural events. Information on dugong life history was obtained from specimens obtained from female dugongs as they were butchered for food by Indigenous hunters at two major dugong hunting communities in Torres Strait: Daru (9.04°S, 143.21°E) in 1978–1982 (a time of sea grass dieback and recovery) and Mabuiag Island (9.95°S, 142.15°E) in 1997–1999 (when sea grasses were abundant). Dugongs sampled in 1997–1999 had their first calf at younger ages (minimum of 6 cf. 10 years), and more frequently (interbirth interval based on all possible pregnancies 2.6±0.4 (S.E.) yr cf. 5.8±1.0 yr) than the dugongs sampled in 1978–1982. Pregnancy rates increased monotonically during 1978–1982, coincident with sea grass recovery. The age distribution of the female dugongs collected in 1997–1999 also suggested a low birth rate between 1973 and 1983 and/or or a high level of mortality for animals born during this period. These results add to the evidence from other regions that the life history and reproductive rate of female dugongs are adversely affected by sea grass loss, the effect of which cannot be separated from a possible density-dependent response to changes in dugong population size. Many green turtles in Torres Strait were also in poor body condition coincident with the 1970s sea grass dieback. The impacts of future sea grass diebacks need to be anticipated when management options for the traditional Torres Strait fisheries for dugongs and green turtles are evaluated.     

Form drag is a major component of bed shear stress associated with tidal flow in the vicinity of an isolated sand bank,Torres Strait,northern Australia

Tidal current and elevation data were collected from five oceanographic moorings during October 2004 in Torres Strait, northern Australia, to assess the effects of large bedforms (i.e., sand banks) on the drag coefficient (C_D) used for estimating bed shear stress in complex shallow shelf environments. Ten minute averages of tidal current speed and elevation data were collected for 18 days at an on-bank site (<7 m water depth) and an off-bank site (<10 m). These data were compared to data collected simultaneously from two shelf locations (<11 m) occupied to measure regional tidal behaviour. Overall C_D estimates at the on- and off-bank sites attained 7.0±0.1×10⁻³ and 6.6±0.1×10⁻³, respectively. On-bank C_D estimates also differed between the predominant east–west tidal streams, with easterly directed flows experiencing C_D=7.8±0.18×10⁻³ and westerly directed flows C_D=6.4±0.12×10⁻³. Statistically significant differences between the off-bank and on-bank sites are attributed to the large form drag exerted by the sand banks on the regional tidal currents, and statistically significant differences between the westward and eastward flows is ascribed to bedform asymmetry. Form drag from the large bedforms in Torres Strait comprises up to 65% of the total drag coefficient. When constructing sediment transport models, different C_D estimates must therefore be applied to shelf regions containing steep bedforms compared to regions that do not. Our results extend the limited inventory of seabed drag coefficients for shallow shelf environments, and can be used to improve existing regional seabed mobilisation models, which have direct application to environmental management in Torres Strait.     

Shelf habitat distribution as a legacy of Late Quaternary marine transgressions: A case study from a tropical carbonate province

The legacy of multiple marine transgressions is preserved in a complex morphology of ridges, mounds and reefs on the Carnarvon continental shelf, Western Australia. High-resolution multibeam sonar mapping, underwater photography and sampling across a 280 km² area seaward of the Ningaloo Coast World Heritage Area shows that these raised features provide hardground habitat for modern coral and sponge communities. Prominent among these features is a 20 m high and 15 km long shore-parallel ridge at 60 m water depth. This ridge preserves the largely unaltered form of a fringing reef and is interpreted as the predecessor to modern Ningaloo Reef. Landward of the drowned reef, the inner shelf is covered by hundreds of mounds (bommies) up to 5 m high and linear ridges up to 1.5 km long and 16 m high. The ridges are uniformly oriented to the north-northeast and several converge at their landward limit. On the basis of their shape and alignment, these ridges are interpreted as relict long-walled parabolic dunes. Their preservation is attributed to cementation of calcareous sands to form aeolianite, prior to the post-glacial marine transgression. Some dune ridges abut areas of reef that rise to sea level and are highly irregular in outline but maintain a broad shore-parallel trend. These are tentatively interpreted as Last Interglacial in age. The mid-shelf and outer shelf are mostly sediment covered with relatively low densities of epibenthic biota and have patches of low-profile ridges that may also be relict reef shorelines. An evolutionary model for the Carnarvon shelf is proposed that relates the formation of drowned fringing reefs and aeolian dunes to Late Quaternary eustatic sea level.     

Spatial patterns of sub-tidal seagrasses and their tissue nutrients in the Torres Strait,northern Australia: Implications for management

The distribution and nutritional profiles of sub-tidal seagrasses from the Torres Strait were surveyed and mapped across an area of 31,000 km². Benthic sediment composition, water depth, seagrass species type and nutrients were sampled at 168 points selected in a stratified representative pattern. Eleven species of seagrass were present at 56 (33.3%) of the sample points. Halophila spinulosa, Halophila ovalis, Cymodocea serrulata and Syringodium isoetifolium were the most common species and these were nutrient profiled. Sub-tidal seagrass distribution (and associated seagrass nutrient concentrations) was generally confined to northern-central and south-western regions of the survey area (<longitude 142.60), where mean water depth was relatively shallow (approximately 13 m below MSL) and where sediments were comprised primarily muddy sand to gravelly sand. Seagrass nitrogen and starch content, the most important nutrients for marine herbivores, were significantly correlated with species and with the plant component (above or below ground). For all seagrass species, the above-ground component (shoots and leaves) possessed greater nitrogen concentrations than the below-ground component (roots and rhizomes), which possessed greater starch concentrations. S. isoetifolium had the highest total nitrogen concentrations (1.40±0.05% DW). However, it also had higher fibre concentrations (38.2±0.68% DW) relative to the other four species. H. ovalis possessed the highest starch concentrations (2.76±0.12% DW) and highest digestibility (83.24±0.66% DW) as well as the lowest fibre (27.2±0.66% DW). The high relative abundance (found at 55% of the sites that had seagrass) and nutrient quality characteristics of H. ovalis make it an important source of energy to marine herbivores that forage sub-tidally in the Torres Strait. There were two regions in Torres Strait (north-central and south-western) where sub-tidal seagrass meadows were prevalent and of relatively higher nutritional value. This spatial and nutritional information can be used by local agencies to manage and to protect the ecological, economic and cultural values of the sub-tidal seagrass ecosystems and associated fisheries of the Torres Strait.     

Nearshore wave environments around a sandy cay on a platform reef,Torres Strait,Australia

Waves are the primary factor affecting reef-island morphology. This study examines spatial and temporal variations of wave characteristics in the nearshore around Warraber Island, a sandy cay on a platform reef in Torres Strait Australia, based on field measurements during the predominant southeasterly wind season. Water pressure was recorded simultaneously, and transformed to water surface wave spectra, at a location close to the reef edge and across the nearshore at different locations around the island. Wave environments off the reef were estimated based on wave characteristics measured at the reef-edge location and found to be primarily dominated by sea. Low and high wave-energy events were identified, based on wave energy level at the reef-edge location.     

Site effect study in central Mexico using H/V and SSR techniques: Independence of seismic site effects on source characteristics

We study the influence of different source characteristics (depth, distance, type and azimuth) on the site effect in Acapulco and the Valley of Mexico. Site amplification was estimated by means of spectral ratios (both horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio and standard spectral ratio techniques were applied) from earthquake recordings at soft and hard sites. In Acapulco, 125 Mexican earthquakes covering a hypocentral range of 7–290 km and a depth range (H) of 3–61 km were analyzed in three different groups of hypocentral distances. In the Valley of Mexico, we estimate site effect at five locations using recordings from shallow-coastal interplate (200?Δ?570 km; H?35 km) and normal-faulting, intermediate-depth inslab (132?Δ?738 km; 32?H?178 km) earthquakes, as well as from teleseismic events. Our results seem to point to negligible dependence of site effects on the source location and type.     

The NAFE’06 data set: Towards soil moisture retrieval at intermediate resolution

The National Airborne Field Experiment 2006 (NAFE’06) was conducted during a three week period of November 2006 in the Murrumbidgee River catchment, located in southeastern Australia. One objective of NAFE’06 was to explore the suitability of the area for SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) calibration/validation and develop downscaling and assimilation techniques for when SMOS does come on line. Airborne L-band brightness temperature was mapped at 1 km resolution 11 times (every 1–3 days) over a 40 by 55 km area in the Yanco region and 3 times over a 40 by 50 km area that includes Kyeamba Creek catchment. Moreover, multi-resolution, multi-angle and multi-spectral airborne data including surface temperature, surface reflectance (green, read and near infrared), lidar data and aerial photos were acquired over selected areas to develop downscaling algorithms and test multi-angle and multi-spectral retrieval approaches. The near-surface soil moisture was measured extensively on the ground in eight sampling areas concurrently with aircraft flights, and the soil moisture profile was continuously monitored at 41 sites. Preliminary analyses indicate that (i) the uncertainty of a single ground measurement was typically less than 5% vol. (ii) the spatial variability of ground measurements at 1 km resolution was up to 10% vol. and (iii) the validation of 1 km resolution L-band data is facilitated by selecting pixels with a spatial soil moisture variability lower than the point-scale uncertainty. The sensitivity of passive microwave and thermal data is also compared at 1 km resolution to illustrate the multi-spectral synergy for soil moisture monitoring at improved accuracy and resolution. The data described in this paper are available at www.nafe.unimelb.edu.au.     

Coral recruitment and potential recovery of eutrophied and blast fishing impacted reefs in Spermonde Archipelago,Indonesia

Coral recruitment was assessed in highly diverse and economically important Spermonde Archipelago, a reef system subjected to land-based sources of siltation/pollution and destructive fishing, over a period of 2 years. Recruitment on settlement tiles reached up to 705 spat m⁻² yr⁻¹ and was strongest in the dry season (July–October), except off-shore, where larvae settled earlier. Pocilloporidae dominated near-shore, while a more diverse community of Acroporidae, Poritidae and others settled in the less polluted mid-shelf and off-shore reefs. Non-coral fouling community appeared to hardly influence initial coral settlement on the tiles, although, this does not necessarily infer low coral post-settlement mortality, which may be enhanced at the near- and off-shore reefs as indicated by increased abundances of potential space competitors on natural substrate. Blast fishing showed no local reduction in coral recruitment and live hard coral cover increased in oligotrophic reefs, indicating potential for coral recovery, if managed effectively.     

Three-dimensional P-wave velocity structure derived from local earthquakes at the Katmai group of volcanoes,Alaska

The three-dimensional P-wave velocity structure beneath the Katmai group of volcanoes is determined by inversion of more than 10,000 rays from over 1000 earthquakes recorded on a local 18 station short-period network between September 1996 and May 2001. The inversion is well constrained from sea level to about 6 km below sea level and encompasses all of the Katmai volcanoes; Martin, Mageik, Trident, Griggs, Novarupta, Snowy, and Katmai caldera. The inversion reduced the average RMS travel-time error from 0.22 s for locations from the standard one-dimensional model to 0.13 s for the best three-dimensional model. The final model, from the 6th inversion step, reveals a prominent low velocity zone (3.6–5.0 km/s) centered at Katmai Pass and extending from Mageik to Trident volcanoes. The anomaly has values about 20–25% slower than velocities outboard of the region (5.0–6.5 km/s). Moderately low velocities (4.5–6.0 km/s) are observed along the volcanic axis between Martin and Katmai Caldera. Griggs volcano, located about 10 km behind (northwest of) the volcanic axis, has unremarkable velocities (5.0–5.7 km/s) compared to non-volcanic regions. The highest velocities are observed between Snowy and Griggs volcanoes (5.5–6.5 km/s). Relocated hypocenters for the best 3-D model are shifted significantly relative to the standard model with clusters of seismicity at Martin volcano shifting systematically deeper by about 1 km to depths of 0 to 4 km below sea level. Hypocenters for the Katmai Caldera are more tightly clustered, relocating beneath the 1912 scarp walls. The relocated hypocenters allow us to compare spatial frequency-size distributions (b-values) using one-dimensional and three-dimensional models. We find that the distribution of b is significantly changed for Martin volcano, which was characterized by variable values (0.8 < b < 2.0) with standard locations and more uniform values (0.8 < b < 1.2) after relocation. Other seismic clusters at Mageik (1.2 < b < 2.2), Trident (0.5 < b < 1.5) and Katmai Caldera (0.8 < b < 1.8) had stable b-values indicating the robustness of the observations. The strong high b-value region at Mageik volcano is mainly associated with an earthquake swarm in October, 1996 that possibly indicates a shallow intrusion or influx of gas. The new velocity and spatial b-value results, in conjunction with prior gravity (Bouguer anomalies up to − 40 mgal) and interferometry (several cm uplift) data, provide strong evidence in favor of partially molten rock at shallow depths beneath the Mageik–Katmai–Novarupta region. Moderately low velocities beneath Martin and Katmai suggest that old, mostly solidified intrusions exist beneath these volcanoes. Higher relative velocities beneath the Griggs and Snowy vents suggest that no magma is resident in the shallow crust beneath these volcanoes.     

An assessment of the use of stabilized coal and oil ash for construction of artificial fishing reefs: Comparison of fishes observed on small ash and concrete reefs

Fishes present on small artificial reefs located 2 km off the central east coast of Florida (USA) were surveyed to determine the acceptability of using stabilized oil and coal ash residue as a component material in construction of artificial fishing reefs. Species richness was not significantly different over 2.5 yr on stabilized oil and coal ash reefs compared to concrete control reefs. Of 19 species tested for significant differences in mean abundance, lane snapper was observed at significantly higher mean abundances on fossil-fuel ash reefs (stabilized oil ash/coal fly ash), while three reef species (hairy blenny, porkfish and gray snapper) were significantly more common on concrete control reefs. Further study is needed to determine whether contaminants (Cu, V, Ni and Zn) from stabilized ash blocks can cause abundance differences for some fishes. Plausible alternate explanations for the differences in mean abundance include both interspecific interactions (competition and predation) and differences in the attraction or retention of fish among reef replicates due to slight variations in reef dimensions.     

Multiple time-scale modelling of the circulation in Torres Strait—Australia

Ocean circulation influences nearly all aspects of the marine ecosystem. This study describes the water circulation patterns on time scales from hours to years across Torres Strait and adjacent gulfs and seas, including the north of the Great Barrier Reef. The tridimensional circulation model incorporated realistic atmospheric and oceanographic forcing, including winds, waves, tides, and large-scale regional circulation taken from global model outputs. Simulations covered a hindcast period of 8 years (i.e. 01/03/1997–31/12/2004), allowing the tidal, seasonal, and interannual flow characteristics to be investigated. Results indicated that the most energetic current patterns in Torres Strait were strongly dominated by the barotropic tide and its spring-neap cycle. However, longer-term flow through the strait was mainly controlled by prevailing winds. A dominant westward drift developed in summer over the southeasterly trade winds season, which then weakened and reversed in winter over the northwesterly monsoon winds season. The seasonal flow through Torres Strait was strongly connected to the circulation in the north of the Great Barrier Reef, but showed little connectivity with the coastal circulation in the Gulf of Papua. Interannual variability in Torres Strait was highest during the monsoon period, reflecting variability in wind forcing including the timing of the monsoon. The characteristics of the circulation were also discussed in relation to fine sediment transport. Turbidity level in Torres Strait is expected to peak at the end of the monsoon, while it is likely to be at a low at the end of the trade season, eventually leading to a critically low bottom light level which constitutes a severe risk of seagrass dieback.     

Estimating the sustainable lobster (Panulirus ornatus) catch in Torres Strait,Australia, using an age-structured stock assessment model

The ornate rock lobster (Panulirus ornatus) is distributed across Torres Strait between Australia and Papua New Guinea and supports the most important commercial fishery to Islanders in the region. The long-term sustainability of the fishery is of importance not only to local island communities but also to the bilateral relationship between the two countries. In this paper, we developed an age-structured fishery model to assess the current stock status and estimate the long-term sustainable catch. The model was fitted to catch statistics and survey-based population estimates through a weighted maximum likelihood approach. Natural mortality was estimated at 0.732 yr⁻¹, and fishing mortality ranged from 0.19 to 0.65 yr⁻¹ from 1989 to 2005. The maximum sustainable yield was estimated at about 640 tonnes whole weight with a corresponding fishing mortality of 0.5 yr⁻¹. A stock–recruitment model was established based on outputs of the stock assessment model. To obtain the maximum sustainable yield, spawning stock should be maintained at 120×10⁴ lobsters. The lobster spawning stock has been fished down below this level twice since 1989, in 1999 and 2002, and was higher than this level in 2004 and 2005. These results suggest that the Torres Strait lobster stock is not over-fished and that the current harvest strategy is likely to maintain the stock at or above the level that would support the maximum sustainable yield if the current cap on fishing effort remains in place.     

Effects of the North Head deep-water sewage outfall on nearshore coastal reef macrobenthic assemblages

The macrobenthos on the coastal reefs near the North Head deep-water outfall were sampled nine times over a 3 year period to determine whether patterns in diversity and abundance were affected by the outfall. The assemblages were sampled using an asymmetrical after control/impact design (ACI). Ten replicate quadrats at each of three sites nested within each of three locations were photographed using a jump camera. These photographs were sampled to provide estimates of the number and abundance of major taxa and abundances of individual species. Significant interactions between outfall vs control through time were detected for the total number of species, bryozoans, cnidarians and the abundances of a silt matrix and two species of bryozoans. Smaller scale interactions among sites through time occurred for the abundances of total fauna, sponges and an ascidian species representing some evidence for the effect of the outfall at these smaller spatial scales. This paper summarizes the correlative evidence of effects from the outfall.     

Baseline study of the spatio-temporal patterns of reef fish assemblages prior to a major mining project in New Caledonia (South Pacific)

From 2008 onwards, the coral reefs of Koné (New Caledonia) will be subjected to a major anthropogenic perturbation linked to development of a nickel mine. Dredging and sediment runoff may directly damage the reef environment whereas job creation should generate a large demographic increase and thus a rise in fishing activities. This study analyzed reef fish assemblages between 2002 and 2007 with a focus on spatio-temporal variability. Our results indicate strong spatial structure of fish assemblages through time. Total species richness, density and biomass were highly variable between years but temporal variations were consistent among biotopes. A remarkable spatio-temporal stability was observed for trophic (mean 4.6% piscivores, 53.1% carnivores, 30.8% herbivores and 11.4% planktivores) and home range structures of species abundance contributions. These results are discussed and compared with others sites of the South Pacific. For monitoring perspectives, some indicators related to expected disturbances are proposed.     

Marine resources,biophysical processes,and environmental management of a tropical shelf seaway: Torres Strait,Australia–Introduction to the special issue

This special issue of Continental Shelf Research contains 20 papers giving research results produced as part of Australia's Torres Strait Co-operative Research Centre (CRC) Program, which was funded over a three-year period during 2003–2006. Marine biophysical, fisheries, socioeconomic-cultural and extension research in the Torres Strait region of northeastern Australia was carried out to meet three aims: 1) support the sustainable development of marine resources and minimize impacts of resource use in Torres Strait; 2) enhance the conservation of the marine environment and the social, cultural and economic well being of all stakeholders, particularly the Torres Strait peoples; and 3) contribute to effective policy formulation and management decision making. Subjects covered, including commercial and traditional fisheries management, impacts of anthropogenic sediment inputs on seagrass meadows and communication of science results to local communities, have broad applications to other similar environments.     

Metals in Pocillopora damicornis exposed to tin smelter effluent

Metal concentrations in tissues and skeleton of the coral Pocillopora damicornis were compared from intertidal reefs adjacent to a tin smelter at Phuket, Thailand. Tissue concentrations of ten metals were significantly higher for corals collected at the tin smelter than at control reefs, 1 km distant. Elevated tissue metal concentrations were considered not to be derived from particulate material but probably from solution. Analyses of skeletal material revealed no differences in metal concentrations between study sites. The implications of elevated tissue metal concentrations are discussed in relation to reduced growth rates and low abundance of branching coral species at the reef adjacent to the tin smelter when compared to the control reefs.     

The coral reef crisis: The critical importance of <350 ppm CO2

Temperature-induced mass coral bleaching causing mortality on a wide geographic scale started when atmospheric CO₂ levels exceeded ∼320 ppm. When CO₂ levels reached ∼340 ppm, sporadic but highly destructive mass bleaching occurred in most reefs world-wide, often associated with El Niño events. Recovery was dependent on the vulnerability of individual reef areas and on the reef’s previous history and resilience. At today’s level of ∼387 ppm, allowing a lag-time of 10 years for sea temperatures to respond, most reefs world-wide are committed to an irreversible decline. Mass bleaching will in future become annual, departing from the 4 to 7 years return-time of El Niño events. Bleaching will be exacerbated by the effects of degraded water-quality and increased severe weather events. In addition, the progressive onset of ocean acidification will cause reduction of coral growth and retardation of the growth of high magnesium calcite-secreting coralline algae. If CO₂ levels are allowed to reach 450 ppm (due to occur by 2030-2040 at the current rates), reefs will be in rapid and terminal decline world-wide from multiple synergies arising from mass bleaching, ocean acidification, and other environmental impacts. Damage to shallow reef communities will become extensive with consequent reduction of biodiversity followed by extinctions. Reefs will cease to be large-scale nursery grounds for fish and will cease to have most of their current value to humanity. There will be knock-on effects to ecosystems associated with reefs, and to other pelagic and benthic ecosystems. Should CO₂ levels reach 600 ppm reefs will be eroding geological structures with populations of surviving biota restricted to refuges. Domino effects will follow, affecting many other marine ecosystems. This is likely to have been the path of great mass extinctions of the past, adding to the case that anthropogenic CO₂ emissions could trigger the Earth’s sixth mass extinction.