由宽频带辐射能量目录和地震矩目录给出的视应力及其地震学意义

对NEIC宽频带地震辐射能量目录和哈佛矩心矩张量（CMT）目录的比较，给出了关于视应力的一些可能是有意义的结果，尽管目前的结果误差仍很大，可靠性也是有限的，但这种比较所提供的线索却颇值得注意，视应力的计算给出关于地震断层面上非线性动摩擦函数的线索，能量／地震矩之比随地震大小的变化表明，在BK模型框架下，对于走滑型地城,依赖于滑动速度的摩擦似乎占主要地位，而对于非走滑型地震，依赖于位移的摩擦似乎占主要地位，主震和余震的能量／地震矩之比的比较表明，对于走滑型地震，余震的视应力平均地说来低于主震的视应力，而对于非直滑型地震，余震的视应力即有高于主震的也有低于主震的，这对于障碍体和凹凸模式的讨论及模型中地震破裂停止条件的设置可能具有一定的参考意义。     

历史大地震断层滑动模型的建立及其对同震数值计算的影响——以1920年宁夏海原MS8.5大地震为例

大地震的发生会引起区域位移场和应力场发生变化,进而改变区域内及临近断层的应力状态和地震活动性.目前,研究学者可据已有的断层滑动模型来计算分析大地震同震应力变化,同时采用库仑应力触发理论来进一步分析震后余震分布和断层危险性.然而,历史上曾经发生过不少大地震,例如,1920年的海原M_S8.5大地震,是全球范围内少见的特大地震之一.局限于无确切的地震台站地震波等资料,前人在研究历史地震的影响时往往给出一些简单的断层滑动模型,将断层面上错动量视为均匀分布.为更准确地了解历史地震对后续地震的影响,基于前人研究和一般地震滑动形态分布规律及地震反射剖面等资料,以海原M_S8.5大地震为例,探讨了如何建立海原大地震断层滑动模型,并分别搭建了简单断层滑动模型和复杂断层滑动模型的全球同震横向不均匀并行椭球型地球模型.通过对海原M_S8.5地震的同震位移场和应力场的计算,发现采用复杂断层滑动模型比简单断层滑动模型地表位错分布更切合实际.同时,进一步计算和分析了此次大地震对青藏高原东北缘近100年历史地震和周围断层的应力触发作用,得出断层滑动模型对同震计算结果的影响集中在发震断层附近而对远场影响较小.     

Dynamic Rupture in a 3-D Particle-based Simulation of a Rough Planar Fault

An appreciation of the physical mechanisms which cause observed seismicity complexity is fundamental to the understanding of the temporal behaviour of faults and single slip events. Numerical simulation of fault slip can provide insights into fault processes by allowing exploration of parameter spaces which influence microscopic and macroscopic physics of processes which may lead towards an answer to those questions. Particle-based models such as the Lattice Solid Model have been used previously for the simulation of stick-slip dynamics of faults, although mainly in two dimensions. Recent increases in the power of computers and the ability to use the power of parallel computer systems have made it possible to extend particle-based fault simulations to three dimensions. In this paper a particle-based numerical model of a rough planar fault embedded between two elastic blocks in three dimensions is presented. A very simple friction law without any rate dependency and no spatial heterogeneity in the intrinsic coefficient of friction is used in the model. To simulate earthquake dynamics the model is sheared in a direction parallel to the fault plane with a constant velocity at the driving edges. Spontaneous slip occurs on the fault when the shear stress is large enough to overcome the frictional forces on the fault. Slip events with a wide range of event sizes are observed. Investigation of the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of slip during each event shows a high degree of variability between the events. In some of the larger events highly complex slip patterns are observed.     

应力扰动对地震周期和地震矩影响的数值模拟

利用二维有限元数值模型,结合断层滑移弱化摩擦准则对断层滑动规律以及应力扰动对其影响进行了研究．数值计算结果表明,在均匀应力分布情况下, 平面断层滑动显示出典型的特征地震规律,断层面上的应力扰动对断层滑动规律产生影响,压应力增加明显延迟地震的发生时间,并增加地震释放的能量．应力扰动发生在地震破裂临界区时的影响比在震前滑移区时的影响显著．当发生在地震滑移区时,若应力扰动足够大,则压应力增大会造成地震发生时部分动力断层被暂时锁住,使得地震释放的能量变小,但可增加后续地震的能量; 而压应力减小则可导致地震规律产生更加复杂的变化,会即时触发地震．如果应力扰动发生在一个地震周期的早期,则触发的地震较小,但可导致随后的地震提前发生; 如果应力扰动发生在一个地震周期的后期,则会触发大地震．当应力扰动位于震前滑移区或破裂临界区时,小的扰动也可能产生类似的效果．应力扰动产生越晚,这种影响也越明显．应力扰动发生在破裂临界区的影响最明显．应力扰动的影响一般主要集中在应力发生扰动后的1—2个地震周期内．后续地震基本恢复无应力扰动时的特征地震规律．      

Ductile creep and compaction: A mechanism for transiently increasing fluid pressure in mostly sealed fault zones

A simple cyclic process is proposed to explain why major strike-slip fault zones, including the San Andreas, are weak. Field and laboratory studies suggest that the fluid within fault zones is often mostly sealed from that in the surrounding country rock. Ductile creep driven by the difference between fluid pressure and lithostatic pressure within a fault zone leads to compaction that increases fluid pressure. The increased fluid pressure allows frictional failure in earthquakes at shear tractions far below those required when fluid pressure is hydrostatic. The frictional slip associated with earthquakes creates porosity in the fault zone. The cycle adjusts so that no net porosity is created (if the fault zone remains constant width). The fluid pressure within the fault zone reaches long-term dynamic equilibrium with the (hydrostatic) pressure in the country rock. One-dimensional models of this process lead to repeatable and predictable earthquake cycles. However, even modest complexity, such as two parallel fault splays with different pressure histories, will lead to complicated earthquake cycles. Two-dimensional calculations allowed computation of stress and fluid pressure as a function of depth but had complicated behavior with the unacceptable feature that numerical nodes failed one at a time rather than in large earthquakes. A possible way to remove this unphysical feature from the models would be to include a failure law in which the coefficient of friction increases at first with frictional slip, stabilizing the fault, and then decreases with further slip, destabilizing it.     

3-D Simulation of Earthquake Generation Cycles and Evolution of Fault Constitutitve Properties

--The earthquake generation cycle consists of tectonic loading, quasi-static rupture nucleation, dynamic rupture propagation and stop, and subsequent stress redistribution and fault restrengthening. From a macroscopic point of view, the entire process of earthquake generation cycles should be consistently described by a coupled nonlinear system of a slip-response function, a fault constitutive law and a driving force. On the basis of such a general idea, we constructed a realistic 3-D simulation model for earthquake generation cycles at a transcurrent plate boundary by combining the viscoelastic slip-response function derived for a two-layered elastic-viscoelastic structure model, the slip- and time-dependent fault constitutive law that has an inherent mechanism of fault restrengthening, and the steady relative plate motion as a driving force into a single closed system. With this model we numerically simulated the earthquake generation cycles repeated in a seismogenic region on a plate interface, and examined space-time changes in shear stress, slip deficits and fault constitutive properties during one complete cycle in detail. The occurrence of unstable dynamic slip brings about decrease both in fault strength and shear stress to a constant residual level. After the arrest of dynamic slip, the breakdown strength drop j†_p of fault is restored rapidly and the process of stress accumulation resumes in the seismogenic region. On the other hand, the restoration of the critical weakening displacement D_c proceeds gradually with time through the interseismic period. The restoration of D_c can be regarded as the macroscopic manifestation of the microscopic recovery process of fractal fault surface structure. Through numerical simulation with a multi-segmented fault model, we examined the effects of viscoelastic fault-to-fault interaction. The effect of transient viscoelastic stress transfer through the asthenosphere is significant as well as the direct effect of elastic stress transfer, and it possibly explains the time lag of the sequential occurrence of large events along a plate boundary.     

A 3-D Quasi-static Model for a Variety of Slip Behaviors on a Subduction Fault

— Earthquake faultings have a wide variety of slip behaviors, such as, a log-linear frequency-magnitude relation, characteristic earthquakes, slow slip events, and so on. We report a model which can reproduce a certain variety of observed complex slip behaviors on a fault. Our 3-D model simulates the seismic cycle on a shallow dipping subduction fault in a homogeneous elastic half-space, on which frictional sliding is controlled by a rate- and state-dependent friction law. We find that the behaviors of reproduced seismic cycles depend on a lateral dimension of a seismogenic zone (H) with respect to a constant seismogenic width in dip direction (W). The following three domains appear in the seismic cycle behaviors: (1) Regular, periodic behaviors when H is comparable to W; (2) transitional, quasi-periodic behaviors when H/W~ 3; and (3) complex behaviors when H/W is larger than about 4. The slip behavior in the domain (1) is characterized by a periodical recurrence of a characteristic earthquake, which is centered in strike direction. In the domain (2), although earthquakes are still centered, these recurrence intervals and the sizes are modulated within a certain range. Also, in the domain (3), earthquakes occur not only at the center but at various lateral positions on the seismogenic zone. In this domain, the log-linear frequency-magnitude relations, like the Gutenberg-Richter relation, are produced. Slow slip events also occur at source areas of the earthquakes. It is suggested that a heterogeneous stress distribution at a source region is important, as well as heterogeneities in friction properties on the fault, for understanding the wide variety of slip behaviors in faultings.     

Seismicity simulation with a rate- and state-dependent friction law

The dynamic motions and stabilities of a single-degree-of-freedom elastic system controlled by different friction laws are compared. The system consists of a sliding block connected to an elastic spring, driven at a constant velocity. The friction laws are a laboratory-inferred friction law called the rate-and-state-dependent friction law, proposed by Dieterich and Ruina, and a simple friction law described by dynamic and static frictions. We further extend the solution to a one-dimensional mass-spring model which is an analog of a fault controlled by the rate-and-state-dependent friction law. This model predicts non uniform slip and stress drop along the rupture length of a heterogeneous fault. This result is very different from some earlier modelings based on the simple friction law and a slip weakening friction law. In those earlier modelings the stress and slip functions become smoother with time along the length of the fault rupture, owing to the interactions between fault segments during slip. Because of this smoothing process the number of small events will decrease with time, and the universilly observed stationary magnitude-frequency relation cannot be explained. The interaction between a fault segment and its neighboring segments can be measured when the post-slip stress on this segment is compared with the stress on an identical segment (represented by a block in this modeling) without neighboring segments. If the post-slip stress of the former is much higher than that of the latter, strong interaction exists; if the two are close, only weak interaction exists. The interaction is determined by the relative motion between fault segments and the time duration of interaction. Our new modeling with the rate-and-state-dependent friction law appears to show no such smoothing effect and provides a physical mechanism for the roughening process in the difference between the fault strength and stress that is necessary to explain the observed stationary magnitude-frequency relation. The noninstantaneous healing predicted by the rate-and-state-dependent friction law may be repsonsible for the recurring nonuniform slip and stress drop, and may be explained by the reduction of interaction among fault segments due to the low frictional strength during the fault stopping. The very low friction during slip stopping allows much longer times than does the higher friction due to instantaneous healing for the fault segments to adjust their motions from an upper-limit slip velocity to almost rest. According to newton's second law, a process with fixed masses and constant velocity changes involves low forces and weak interactions if it is accomplished in a long time period, and vice versa. Our modeling also indicates that the existence of strong patches with higher effective stress on a fault is needed for the occurrence of major events. The creeping section of a fault, such as the one along the San Andreas fault in central California, on the other hand, can be simulated with the rate-and-state-dependent friction law by certain model parameters, which, however, must not include strong patches. In this case small earthquakes and aseismic creep relieve the accumulating strain without any large events.     

Effect of slip rate on stress drop

Recent observations made by Kanamori and Allen about earthquake recurrence time and average stress drop revealed a very interesting relation: earthquakes with longer recurrence times have higher average stress drops. They attributed the difference in stress drop to the difference in long-term average slip rate. To interpret their result in terms of the healing effect, we simulated earthquake recurrence with a one-dimensional mass-spring model, incorporating a recently developed rate-and-state dependent friction law for different loading rates and heterogeneous strength distributions. We first calculated the stress drop and recurrence time as functions of loading rate for a homogenous fault model. We found that the stress drop increases up to 30% when the loading rate decreases from 10 cm/yr to 0.01 mm/yr. Thus, the observed great variability of stress drop, from a few bars to a few hundred bars, which is obtained by replotting the data of Kanamori and Allen in the form of stress drop versus long-term slip rate, may not be attributable to the healing effect alone. Our numerical simulation shows that the variability may be due primarily to the spatial heterogeneity of strength on the fault. Our simulation also suggests that of the two empirical laws that were inferred from the same laboratory friction data, called the power law and the logarithmic law by Shimamoto and Logan, the former can explain the observed relation between stress drop and slip rate better than can the latter, at least for strike-slip fault. The logarithmic law is an earlier and simpler version of the rate-state-dependent friction law.     

基于Chester-Higgs模型探讨摩擦生热对断层演化进程的影响

速率和状态相依赖的摩擦定律是本文采用的重要定律。结合Chester-Higgs摩擦模型和McKenzie-Brune摩擦生热模型,在一维弹簧-滑块-断层近似模型下,利用四阶变步长的Dormand-Prince算法,研究探讨了断层摩擦生热对断层演化的影响。结果表明:与忽略温度影响的情形相比,摩擦生热造成的温度上升可导致断层滑移时刻的略微提前,并伴随着摩擦系数和状态变量的下降,同时也使得断层的滑移量和应力降略有减小,而滑移速率有所增大;另外,在考虑温度影响时,有效正应力和临界滑移距离也会影响断层的演化过程,断层上的有效正应力越大,断层失稳时刻越提前,温度上升越明显;断层的临界滑移距离越大,断层失稳时刻则越迟,温度上升越显著,但当临界滑移距离超过5 cm时,具有不同临界滑移距离的断层,失稳时的温度则基本保持一致。      

Nonuniform and Unsteady Sliding of a Plate Boundary in a Great Earthquake Cycle: A Numerical Simulation Using a Laboratory-derived Friction Law

—A numerical study is conducted to simulate complicated sliding behavior and earthquake activity on a subducting plate boundary. A 2-D model of a uniform elastic half-space with a semi-infinite thrust fault is set up, and the frictional stress prescribed by a rate- and state-dependent friction law is assumed to act on the plate boundary fault. Spatial nonuniformity of friction parameters representing rate-dependence of friction and of slip-dependence of friction are introduced in the model to obtain complicated sliding behavior in the numerical simulation. Analogs of great earthquakes that break the entire seismogenic plate boundary repeatedly occur at a constant time interval. Smaller events of seismic or aseismic sliding occur during a great earthquake cycle. Regions of rate-strengthening of friction and of a large characteristic distance in slip-dependence of friction behave as barriers or asperities. Rupture propagation is often arrested in such a region and a great earthquake occurs later when the region is broken. The variety of earthquake activity observed in many regions along real plate boundaries may be explained by similar nonuniformity in friction parameters. Conversely, the friction parameters on plate boundaries might be estimated from comparison of theoretical simulations with observations of earthquake activity. Simulation results indicate that spatiotemporal variation in stress due to aseismic sliding may play an important part in generating earthquakes.     

Physics-Based 3-D Simulation for Earthquake Generation Cycles at Plate Interfaces in Subduction Zones

The generation of interplate earthquakes can be regarded as a process of tectonic stress accumulation and release, driven by relative plate motion. We completed a physics-based simulation system for earthquake generation cycles at plate interfaces in the Japan region, where the Pacific plate is descending beneath the North American and Philippine Sea plates, and the Philippine Sea plate is descending beneath the North American and Eurasian plates. The system is composed of a quasi-static tectonic loading model and a dynamic rupture propagation model, developed on a realistic 3-D plate interface model. The driving force of the system is relative plate motion. In the quasi-static tectonic loading model, mechanical interaction at plate interfaces is rationally represented by the increase of tangential displacement discontinuity (fault slip) across them on the basis of dislocation theory for an elastic surface layer overlying Maxwell-type viscoelastic half-space. In the dynamic rupture propagation model, stress changes due to fault slip motion on non-planar plate interfaces are evaluated with the boundary integral equation method. The progress of seismic (dynamic) or aseismic (quasi-static) fault slip on plate interfaces is governed by a slip- and time-dependent fault constitutive law. As an example, we numerically simulated earthquake generation cycles at the source region of the 1968 Tokachi-oki earthquake on the North American-Pacific plate interface. From the numerical simulation, we can see that postseismic stress relaxation in the asthenosphere accelerates stress accumulation in the source region. When the stress state of the source region is close to a critical level, dynamic rupture is rapidly accelerated and develops over the whole source region. When the stress state is much lower than the critical level, the rupture is not accelerated. This means that the stress state realized by interseismic tectonic loading essentially controls the subsequent dynamic rupture process.     

Visco-elastic stress triggering model of Tangshan earthquake sequence

We calculated the Coulomb failure stress change generated by the 1976 Tangshan earthquake that is projected onto the fault planes and slip directions of large subsequent aftershocks.Results of previous studies on the seismic fail-ure distribution,crustal velocity and viscosity structures of the Tangshan earthquake are used as model constraints.Effects of the local pore fluid pressure and impact of soft medium near the fault are also considered.Our result shows that the subsequent Luanxian and Ninghe earthquakes occurred in the regions with a positive Coulomb fail-ure stress produced by the Tangshan earthquake.To study the triggering effect of the Tangshan,Luanxian,and Ninghe earthquakes on the follow-up small earthquakes,we first evaluate the possible focal mechanisms of small earthquakes according to the regional stress field and co-seismic slip distributions derived from previous studies,assuming the amplitude of regional tectonic stress as 10 MPa.By projecting the stress changes generated by the above three earthquakes onto the possible fault planes and slip directions of small earthquakes,we find that the "butterfly" distribution pattern of increased Coulomb failure stress is consistent with the spatial distribution of follow-up earthquakes,and 95% of the aftershocks occurred in regions where Coulomb failure stresses increase,indicating that the former large earthquakes modulated occurrences of follow-up earthquakes in the Tangshan earthquake sequence.This result has some significance in rapid assessment of aftershock hazard after a large earthquake.If detailed failure distribution,seismogenic fault in the focal area and their slip features can be rapidly determined after a large earthquake,our algorithm can be used to predict the locations of large aftershocks.     

Interplate Earthquake Fault Slip During Periodic Earthquake Cycles in a Viscoelastic Medium at a Subduction Zone

--A 2-D finite-element-method (FEM) numerical experiment of earthquake cycles at a subduction zone is performed to investigate the effect of viscoelasticity of the earth on great interplate earthquake fault slip. We construct a 2-D viscoelastic FEM model of northeast Japan, which consists of an elastic upper crust and a viscoelastic mantle wedge under gravitation overlying the subducting elastic Pacific plate. Instead of the dislocation model prescribing an amount of slip on a plate interface, we define an earthquake cycle, in which the plate interface down to a depth is locked during an interseismic period and unlocked during coseismic and postseismic periods by changing the friction on the boundary with the master-slave method. This earthquake cycle with steady plate subduction is periodically repeated to calculate the resultant earthquake fault slip.¶As simulated in a previous study (Wang, 1995), the amount of fault slip at the first earthquake cycle is smaller than the total relative plate motion. This small amount of fault slip in the viscoelastic medium was considered to be one factor explaining the small seismic coupling observed at several subduction zones. Our simulation, however, shows that the fault slip grows with an increasing number of repeated earthquake cycles and reaches an amount comparable to the total relative plate motion after more than ten earthquake cycles. This new finding indicates that the viscoelasticity of the earth is not the main factor in explaining the observed small seismic coupling. In comparison with a simple one-degree-of-freedom experiment, we demonstrate that the increase of the fault slip occurs in the transient state from the relaxed initial state to the stressed equilibrium state due to the intermittent plate loading in a viscoelastic medium.     

区域加载过程与发震断层变形演化的实验研究

使用双剪粘滑模型模拟自发地震和诱发地震的区域加载过程,利用应变观测系统多点连续观测发震断层附近的局部应变变化。在应力与应变空间上描述了地震过程的区域应力路径和局部应变路径。结果表明,局部应变路径与应力宏观路径的形态差异较大,但两者的转换阶段对应,存在一定映射关系。断层局部变形路径的走向标明了断层所处在的变形阶段。自发地震的应变路径可以划分为3个部分:应变积累阶段、剪应变的线性偏离阶段和失稳滑动阶段。诱发地震的应变路径包括4个阶段:正斜率的应变积累阶段、负斜率的稳态滑动阶段、亚稳态应变僵持阶段、扰动失稳滑动阶段。自发地震与诱发地震有各自的路径模式,可以从应变路径上判别断层稳定性与可能的地震类型。     

Evolution of Stress Fields and Faulting in Seismic Zones

—Measurements indicate that stress magnitudes in the crust are normally limited by the frictional equilibrium on pre-existing, optimally oriented faults. Fault zones where these limitations are frequently reached are referred to as seismic zones. Fault zones in the crust concentrate stresses because their material properties are different from those of the host rock. Most fault zones are spatially relatively stable structures, however the associated seismicity in these zones is quite variable in space and time. Here we propose that this variability is attributable to stress-concentration zones that migrate and expand through the fault zone. We suggest that following a large earthquake and the associated stress relaxation, shear stresses of a magnitude sufficient to produce earthquakes occur only in those small parts of the seismic zone that, because of material properties and boundary conditions, encourage concentration of shear stress. During the earthquake cycle, the conditions for seismogenic fault slip migrate from these stress-concentration regions throughout the entire seismic zone. Thus, while the stress-concentration regions continue to produce small slips and small earthquakes throughout the seismic cycle, the conditions for slip and earthquakes are gradually reached in larger parts of, and eventually the whole, seismogenic layer of the seismic zone. Prior to the propagation of an earthquake fracture that gives rise to a large earthquake, the stress conditions in the zone along the whole potential rupture plane must be essentially similar. This follows because if they were not, then, on entering crustal parts where the state of stress was unfavourable to this type of faulting, the fault propagation would be arrested. The proposed necessary homogenisation of the stress field in a seismic zone as a precursor to large earthquakes implies that by monitoring the state of stress in a seismic zone, its large earthquakes may possibly be forecasted. We test the model on data from Iceland and demonstrate that it broadly explains the historical, as well as the current, patterns of seismogenic faulting in the South Iceland Seismic Zone.     

汶川MW7.9地震余震序列触发机制研究

余震触发机制的Dieterich解析模型被广泛应用于区域地震活动性的定量分析以及依赖时间的概率地震预测模型的建立等方面. 基于滑移速率和状态相依赖的摩擦定律和弹簧-滑块模型, 从Dieterich断层滑移速率方程出发, 给出了静态应力扰动下触发地震的时钟提前或推后的近似解, 从而明确地阐明了触发地震的产生机制与断层的演化过程密切相关, 并与传统位错模型下库仑应力扰动时间提前或推后量作了比较. 采用对数线性拟合方法求得了汶川M_W7.9主震后余震序列持续时间, 符合Dieterich理论结果. 以汶川余震序列为例, 给出了两种不同的应力扰动模式在该余震序列中的应用. 结果表明, 经典Dieterich扰动解无法给出主震发生后即时余震数量的异常增加, 而考虑主震前后剪应力速率变化的Dieterich分段解则可反映出余震发生率及个数随时间的演化特征.      

大尺度雁列断层粘滑运动数值模拟

通过ANSYS软件建立二维雁列断层模型,采用粘弹性力学参数,建立摩擦系数接触单元,模拟10万年时间大尺度雁列走滑断层活动（地震相关活动）,分析挤压条件下的断层活动特征,研究结果表明：①断层时空区域不同,所受应力也不同,接近贯通区域重合地区所受应力较大,粘滑运动剧烈,由贯通区域向断层两侧逐渐延伸,所受应力依次减小;②摩擦系数越小,地震发生频率越高,地震运动周期越短,则位错量相对较小,易发生震级较小地震;摩擦系数越大,地震发生频率越低,地震运动周期越长,则位错量相对较大,易发生震级较大地震;③给定的边界挤压速率越大,地震发生频率越高,地震运动周期越短,则位错量增大,易发生震级较大地震。     

鲜水河断裂带上特征地震的初步研究

特征地震是大地震原地重复的重要表现形式.现有资料的初步研究表明,鲜水河断裂带上大地震属特征地震模式,其地震破裂长度、同震位错量以及断层错动方式,在原地保持较长时间的一致性.由于大地震屡屡在原地重复发生,沿断裂特定地段累积位错分布与一次地震的位错相一致,从而导致断层滑动速率的同步变化.本文以1973年炉霍地震为例,研究了鲜水河断裂的特征地震现象.该段的地震活动属特征地震模式,不服从古登堡-里克特的线性震级频度关系.特征地震不仅对断错地貌、滑动速率有重要的影响,由于这种地震模式是以特定震级的大地震为主导,几乎没有中等震级地震发生,这对地震活动性研究也具有重要的意义.      

The response of creeping parts of the San Andreas fault to earthquakes on nearby faults: Two examples

Rates of shallow slip on creeping sections of the San Andreas fault have been perturbed on a number of occasions by earthquakes occurring on nearby faults. One example of such perturbations occurred during the 26 January 1986 magnitude 5.3 Tres Pinos earthquake located about 10 km southeast of Hollister, California. Seven creepmeters on the San Andreas fault showed creep steps either during or soon after the shock. Both left-lateral (LL) and right-lateral (RL) steps were observed. A rectangular dislocation in an elastic half-space was used to model the coseismic fault offset at the hypocenter. For a model based on the preliminary focal mechanism, the predicted changes in static shear stress on the plane of the San Andreas fault agreed in sense (LL or RL) with the observed slip directions at all seven meters; for a model based on a refined focal mechanism, six of the seven meters showed the correct sense of motion. Two possible explanations for such coseismic and postseismic steps are (1) that slip was triggered by the earthquake shaking or (2) that slip occurred in response to the changes in static stress fields accompanying the earthquake. In the Tres Pinos example, the observed steps may have been of both the triggered and responsive kinds. A second example is provided by the 2 May 1983 magnitude 6.7 Coalinga earthquake, which profoundly altered slip rates at five creepmeters on the San Andreas fault for a period of months to years. The XMM1 meter 9 km northwest of Parkfield, California recorded LL creep for more than a year after the event. To simulate the temporal behavior of the XMM1 meter and to view the stress perturbation provided by the Coalinga earthquake in the context of steady-state deformation on the San Andreas fault, a simple time-evolving dislocation model was constructed. The model was driven by a single long vertical dislocation below 15 km in depth, that was forced to slip at 35 mm/yr in a RL sense. A dislocation element placed in the seismogenic layer under XMM1 was given a finite breaking strength of sufficient magnitude to produce a Parkfield-like earthquake every 22 years. When stress changes equivalent to a Coalinga earthquake were superposed on the model running in a steady state mode, the effect was to make a segment under XMM1, that could slip in a linear viscous fashion, creep LL and to delay the onset of the next Parkfield-like earthquake by a year or more. If static stress changes imposed by earthquakes off the San Andreas can indeed advance or delay earthquakes on the San Andreas by months or years, then such changes must be considered in intermediate-term prediction efforts.