A model study of the Little Ice Age and beyond: changes in ocean heat content,hydrography and circulation since 1500

The Earth System Climate Model from the University of Victoria is used to investigate changes in ocean properties such as heat content, temperature, salinity, density and circulation during 1500 to 2000, the time period which includes the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1500–1850) and the industrial era (1850–2000). We force the model with two different wind-stress fields which take into account the North Atlantic Oscillation. Furthermore, temporally varying radiative forcings due to volcanic activity, insolation changes and greenhouse gas changes are also implemented. We find that changes in the upper ocean (0–300 m) heat content are mainly driven by changes in radiative forcing, except in the polar regions where the varying wind-stress induces changes in ocean heat content. In the full ocean (0–3,000 m) the wind-driven effects tend to reduce, prior to 1700, the downward trend in the ocean heat content caused by the radiative forcing. Afterwards no dynamical effect is visible. The colder ocean temperatures in the top 600 m during the LIA are caused by changes in radiative forcing, while the cooling at the bottom is wind-driven. The changes in salinity are small except in the Arctic Ocean. The reduced salinity content in the subsurface Arctic Ocean during the LIA is a result from reduced wind-driven inflow of saline water from the North Atlantic. At the surface of the Arctic Ocean the changes in salinity are caused by changes in sea–ice thickness. The changes in density are a composite picture of the temperature and salinity changes. Furthermore, changes in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are caused mainly by a varying wind-stress forcing; the additional buoyancy driven changes due to the radiative forcings are small. The simulated MOC is reduced during the LIA as compared to the industrial era. On the other hand, the ventilation rate in the Southern Ocean is increased during the LIA.     

"Little Ice Age" Research: A Perspective from Iceland

The development during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries of the sciences of meteorology and climatology and their subdisciplines has made possible an ever-increasing understanding of the climate of the past. In particular, the refinement of palaeoclimatic proxy data has meant that the climate of the past thousand years has begun to be extensively studied. In the context of this research, it has often been suggested that a warm epoch occurred in much of northern Europe, the north Atlantic, and other parts of the world, from around the ninth through the fourteenth centuries, and that this was followed by a decline in temperatures culminating in a "Little Ice Age" from about 1550 to 1850 (see e.g. Lamb, 1965, 1977; Flohn, 1978). The appelations "Medieval Warm Period" and "Little Ice Age" have entered the literature and are frequently used without clear definition. More recently, however, these terms have come under closer scrutiny (see, e.g. Ogilvie, 1991, 1992; Bradley and Jones, 1992; Mikami, 1992; Briffa and Jones, 1993; Bradley and Jones, 1993; Hughes and Diaz, 1994; Jones et al., 1998; Mann et al., 1999; Crowley and Lowery, 2000). As research continues into climatic fluctuations over the last 1000 to 2000 years, a pattern is emerging which suggests a far more complex picture than early research into the history of climate suggested. In this paper, the origins of the term "Little Ice Age" are considered. Because of the emphasis on the North Atlantic in this volume, the prime focus is on research that has been undertaken in this region, with a perspective on the historiography of historical climatology in Iceland as well as on the twentieth-century climate of Iceland. The phrase "Little Ice Age" has become part of the scientific and popular thinking on the climate of the past thousand years. However, as knowledge of the climate of the Holocene continues to grow, the term now seems to cloud rather than clarify thinking on the climate of the past thousand years. It is hoped that the discussion here will encourage future researchers to focus their thinking on exactly and precisely what is meant when the term "Little Ice Age" is used.     

小冰期气候研究回顾和机理探寻

回顾了古气候学中利用代用气象资料对小冰期气候重建的研究结果，归纳出小冰期时期全球气候特征及东亚季风区域气候特征，分析了小冰期气候形成的可能原因，介绍了国外有关小冰期气候成因的数值模拟现状，并对未来模拟工作发展方向提出了建议。     

Variations of sea ice temperature from CHINARE 2003 and its application on sea ice model evaluation

Variation of vertical profiles of sea ice temperature and adjacent atmosphere and ocean temperatures were measured by ice drifting buoys deployed in the northeast Chukchi Sea as part of the 2003 Chinese Arctic Research Expedition.The buoy observations (September 2003 to February 2005) show that the cooling of the ice began in late September,propagated down through the ice,reaching the bottom of the ice in December,and continued throughout the winter.In winter 2003/04,some obvious warmings were observed in the upper portion of the ice in response to major warmings in the overlying atmosphere associated with the periodicity of storms in the northeast Chukchi Sea.It is found that the melt season at the buoy site in 2004 was about 15% longer than normal.The buoy observed vertical ice temperature profiles were used as a diagnostic for sea ice model evaluation.The results show that the simulated ice temperature profiles have large discrepancies as compared with the observations.     

The possible role of Brazilian promontory in Little Ice Age

The Gulf Stream, one of the strongest currents in the world, transports approximately 31 Sv of water (Kelly and Gille, 1990, Baringer and Larsen, 2001, Leaman et al., 1995) and 1.3 × 10¹⁵ W (Larsen, 1992) of heat into the Atlantic Ocean, and warms the vast European continent. Thus any change of the Gulf Stream could lead to the climate change in the European continent, and even worldwide (Bryden et al., 2005). Past studies have revealed a diminished Gulf Stream and oceanic heat transport that was possibly associated with a southward migration of intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and may have contributed to Little Ice Age (AD ∼1200 to 1850) in the North Atlantic (Lund et al., 2006). However, the causations of the Gulf Stream weakening due to the southward migration of the ITCZ remain uncertain. Here we use satellite observation data and employ a model (oceanic general circulation model – OGCM) to demonstrate that the Brazilian promontory in the east coast of South America may have played a crucial role in allocating the equatorial currents, while the mean position of the equatorial currents migrates between northern and southern hemisphere in the Atlantic Ocean. Northward migrations of the equatorial currents in the Atlantic Ocean have little influence on the Gulf Stream. Nevertheless, southward migrations, especially abrupt large southward migrations of the equatorial currents, can lead to the increase of the Brazil Current and the significant decrease of the North Brazil Current, in turn the weakening of the Gulf Stream. The results from the model simulations suggest the mean position of the equatorial currents in the Atlantic Ocean shifted at least 180–260 km southwards of its present-day position during the Little Ice Age based on the calculations of simple linear equations and the OGCM simulations.     

冬季北半球大气对秋冬季巴伦支海海冰异常的敏感性研究

基于ERA-Interim再分析资料,借助大气模式CAM4,分析了北半球冬季不同月份的平均大气对巴伦支海不同振幅及不同季节海冰扰动的敏感性,并考察了中高纬度典型大气模态的分布变化情况.结果表明,冬季巴伦支海海冰的减少,会导致湍流热通量异常向上、局地异常变暖及水汽含量的异常升高,且相关异常的强度和范围随着海冰减少幅度的减...     

Interannual Climate Variability Change during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age in PMIP3 Last Millennium Simulations

In this study, we analyzed numerical experiments undertaken by 10 climate models participating in PMIP3(Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) to examine the changes in interannual temperature variability and coefficient of variation(CV) of interannual precipitation in the warm period of the Medieval Climate Anomaly(MCA) and the cold period of the Little Ice Age(LIA). With respect to the past millennium period, the MCA temperature variability decreases by 2.0% on average over the globe, and most of the decreases occur in low latitudes. In the LIA, temperature variability increases by a global average of 0.6%, which occurs primarily in the high latitudes of Eurasia and the western Pacific. For the CV of interannual precipitation, regional-scale changes are more significant than changes at the global scale, with a pattern of increased(decreased) CV in the midlatitudes of Eurasia and the northwestern Pacific in the MCA(LIA). The CV change ranges from-7.0% to 4.3%(from -6.3% to 5.4%), with a global average of -0.5%(-0.07%) in the MCA(LIA).Also, the variability changes are considerably larger in December–January–February with respect to both temperature and precipitation.     

沙尘气溶胶辐射强迫全球分布的模拟研究

为了定景了解沙尘气溶胶对气候的影响,文中利用一个改进的辐射传输模式,结合伞球气溶胶数据集(G-ADS),计算了晴空条件下,冬夏两季沙尘气溶胶的直接辐射强迫在对流层顶和地面的全球分布,并讨论了云对沙尘气溶胶辐射强迫的影响.计算结果表明,对北半球冬季和夏季而言,在对流层顶沙尘气溶胶的全球短波辐射强迫的平均值分别为-0.477和-0.501 W/m2;长波辐射强迫分别为0.11和0.085 W/m2;全球平均短波地面辐射强迫冬夏两季分别为-1.362和-1.559 W/m2;长波辐射强迫分别为0.274和0.23 W/m2.沙尘气溶胶在对流层顶和地面的负辐射强迫的绝对值郁随太阳天顶角的余弦和地表反照率的增加而增大;地表反照率对沙尘气溶胶辐射强迫的强度和分布都有重要影响.研究指出:云对沙尘气溶胶的直接辐射强迫的影响不仅取决于云量,而且取决于云的高度和云水路径,以及地面反照率和太阳高度角等综合因素.中云和低云对沙尘气溶胶在对流层顶的短波辐射强迫的影响比高云明显.云的存在都使对流层顶长波辐射强迫减少,其中低云的影响最为明显.因此,在估算沙尘气溶胶总的直接辐射强迫时,云的贡献不可忽视.     

Sensitivity of open-water ice growth and ice concentration evolution in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model

A coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model is applied to investigate to what degree the area-thickness distribution of new ice formed in open water affects the ice and ocean properties. Two sensitivity experiments are performed which modify the horizontal-to-vertical aspect ratio of open-water ice growth. The resulting changes in the Arctic sea-ice concentration strongly affect the surface albedo, the ocean heat release to the atmosphere, and the sea-ice production. The changes are further amplified through a positive feedback mechanism among the Arctic sea ice, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and the surface air temperature in the Arctic, as the Fram Strait sea ice import influences the freshwater budget in the North Atlantic Ocean. Anomalies in sea-ice transport lead to changes in sea surface properties of the North Atlantic and the strength of AMOC. For the Southern Ocean, the most pronounced change is a warming along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), owing to the interhemispheric bipolar seasaw linked to AMOC weakening. Another insight of this study lies on the improvement of our climate model. The ocean component FESOM is a newly developed ocean-sea ice model with an unstructured mesh and multi-resolution. We find that the subpolar sea-ice boundary in the Northern Hemisphere can be improved by tuning the process of open-water ice growth, which strongly influences the sea ice concentration in the marginal ice zone, the North Atlantic circulation, salinity and Arctic sea ice volume. Since the distribution of new ice on open water relies on many uncertain parameters and the knowledge of the detailed processes is currently too crude, it is a challenge to implement the processes realistically into models. Based on our sensitivity experiments, we conclude a pronounced uncertainty related to open-water sea ice growth which could significantly affect the climate system sensitivity.     

The Time Period A.D. 1400-1980 in Central Greenland Ice Cores in Relation to the North Atlantic Sector

This paper presents a review of the time period A.D. 1400-1980 based on Greenland ice cores from the central west Greenland averaged record, and from winter and summer seasonal isotopic records from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2). This time period includes the so-called "Little Ice Age". The concept of the "Little Ice Age" has evolved from the idea of a simple, centuries-long period of lower temperatures to a more complex view of temporal and spatial climatic variability. In the central Greenland ice core isotopic signals, the fifteenth and early sixteenth centuries show multi-decadal excursions above and below the mean reference. The sixteenth and mid-eighteenth to mid-nineteenth centuries are notable for decade-to-decade swings (high-low) in the isotopic signal, while multi-decadal low excursions dominate the seventeenth century. The "subdued" nature of the "Little Ice Age" isotopic signal in central Greenland is probably influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which presents opposing temperature excursions between west Greenland and northern Europe. Changes in the prevailing atmospheric circulation (Iceland Low) can explain some of the spatial and temporal variability between the central Greenland isotopic records and Iceland temperature.     

关于硝酸盐气溶胶光学特征和辐射强迫的研究进展

在过去的20多年里,中外对硫酸盐气溶胶做了大量的研究,对它在大气中的排放、含量、光学特征和辐射强迫有了深入的认识;由于硝酸盐气溶胶在大气中平均含量比硫酸盐低很多,因此过去人们对硝酸盐的研究没有给予重视。然而,近年来的研究表明,硝酸盐气溶胶的散射性质在某些波段甚至强于硫酸盐;同时,由于未来对人为硫酸盐前体物的减排,硫酸盐气溶胶排放会大幅度减少,而硝酸盐气溶胶的排放却增长迅速,其在人为气溶胶中所占的比重越来越高,将会导致其在未来造成的辐射强迫有可能超过硫酸盐,使得其在地区范围内和季节尺度上成为重要的辐射强迫和气候影响因子。中国是硝酸盐气溶胶排放量较大的地区,硝酸盐对未来中国气候和气候变化的影响显得越来越重要。因此,就近年来有关硝酸盐气溶胶的排放和在大气中的浓度变化、光学厚度分布特征及其辐射强迫的研究进展做了回顾和介绍,并对其未来的研究做了展望。     

Parameterizing turbulent exchange over sea ice: the ice station weddell results

A 4-month deployment on Ice Station Weddell (ISW) in the western Weddell Sea yielded over 2000 h of nearly continuous surface-level meteorological data, including eddy-covariance measurements of the turbulent surface fluxes of momentum, and sensible and latent heat. Those data lead to a new parameterization for the roughness length for wind speed, z₀, for snow-covered sea ice that combines three regimes: an aerodynamically smooth regime, a high-wind saltation regime, and an intermediate regime between these two extremes where the macroscale or `permanent' roughness of the snow and ice determines z₀. Roughness lengths for temperature, z_T, computed from this data set corroborate the theoretical model that Andreas published in 1987. Roughness lengths for humidity,z_Q, do not support this model as conclusively but are all, on average, within an order of magnitude of its predictions. Only rarely arez_Tand z_Q equal to z₀. These parameterizations have implications for models that treat the atmosphere-ice-ocean system.     

The role of the Indian Ocean in determining the tropical pacific SST response to radiative forcing in an idealized model

The complexity of the tropical climate system demands the development of a hierarchy of models to ensure our understanding of its response to anthropogenic forcing. The response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to radiative forcing has been studied previously with a box model. The model has provided insights into the tropical Pacific climate change that are otherwise not easily attainable. But that model only encompasses the tropical Pacific region. Recent studies have also shown that the Indian Ocean (IO) may be important in the response of the Pacific Walker circulation to radiative forcing, raising the need to expand the model to take into account the role of IO. This study presents the results concerning the tropical Pacific response to radiative forcing from an expanded-box model that includes the tropical IO, which influences the tropical Pacific through an inter-basin SST gradient.The three-box model predicts an enhanced zonal SST gradient in tropical Pacific in response to the increased radiative forcing, similar to the previous two-box model. It is further noted that in the three-box model, a warmer IO relative to the Pacific enhances Pacific easterlies and subsequently strengthens the equatorial ocean circulation. Because of this ocean dynamical cooling, the warming response in the Pacific is effectively reduced in the three-box model that includes the role of IO compared with that in the two-box model. The role of the IO warming trend in enhancing the Pacific trade winds is confirmed using an atmospheric general circulation model experiment. These results may help to fully explain the relatively small observed warming trend in the tropical Pacific compared to that in the tropical IO evident in 20th century SST reconstructions.     

适应极地快速变化海冰模式的研发与挑战

极地海冰是地球气候系统的重要组成部分,也是气候环境变化的指示器和放大器.极地海冰复杂的多尺度物理过程和极地观测资料的匮乏,给海冰模式的研发带来了巨大的挑战.在过去的半个多世纪中,大气-海冰-海洋的复杂相互作用和冰内物理过程在海冰模式中的数学描述取得了重大的进展,但海冰模式对一些重要物理过程的描述仍很不完善,尤其是近年来...     

2005年渤海海冰冰厚热力增长特征实验的个例研究

认识渤海海冰冰厚热力增长特征,是开发利用海冰资源的理论基础.本文通过2005年1月12日-27日在辽东湾鲅鱼圈和渤海湾黄骅海冰现场实验个例研究得出:鲅鱼圈的累积冰厚平均日增量1.33 em/d,平均冰厚日变化为3 cm;黄骅的累计冰厚平均日增量为0.54 cm/d,平均冰厚变化22.3 cm;冰厚从0 cm增长到10 cm所需的时间为鲅鱼圈5 d左右,黄骅10 d左右;冰厚日变化与日平均气温和日平均冰温与之间相关性显著,但冰厚对气温和冰温降低的反应有一定的滞后性;当环境温度持续下降时,累积冰厚与累积气温之间有显著的正相关,当环境温度上升时,累积冰厚与累积气温之间相关性逆转.     

An updated estimation of radiative forcing due to CO2 and its effect on global surface temperature change

New estimations of radiative forcing due to CO2 were calculated using updated concentration data of CO2 and a high-resolution radiative transfer model. The stratospheric adjusted radiative forcing (ARF) due to CO2 from the year 1750 to the updated year of 2010 was found to have increased to 1.95 Wm－2, which was 17% larger than that of the IPCCs 4th Assessment Report because of the rapid increase in CO2 concentrations since 2005. A new formula is proposed to accurately describe the relationship between the ARF of CO2 and its concentration. Furthermore, according to the relationship between the ARF and surface temperature change, possible changes in equilibrium surface temperature were estimated under the scenarios that the concentration of CO2 increases to 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5 and 4 times that of the concentration in the year 2008. The result was values of +2.2℃, +3.8℃, +5.1℃, +6.2℃, +7.1℃ and +8.0℃ respectively, based on a middle－level climate sensitivity parameter of 0.8 K (Wm－2)－1, Non－equilibrium surface temperature changes over the next 500 years were also calculated under two kinds of emission scenarios (pulsed and sustained emissions) as a comparison, according to the Absolute Global Temperature change Potential (AGTP) of CO2. Results showed that CO2 will likely continue to contribute to global warming if no emission controls are imposed, and the effect on the Earth－atmosphere system will be difficult to restore to its original level.     

Modelling the Baltic Sea ocean climate on centennial time scale: temperature and sea ice

This study considers the possible use of different kinds of forcing datasets in Baltic Sea ocean climate modelling on centennial time scales, in particular for the past half millennium. We demonstrate that high-quality station data of the past century and gridded multi-proxy reconstructions for the past 500 years can be used with great success but with various levels of detail. We also demonstrate that output data from the state-of-the-art global climate model EcHo-G are not suitable for modelling the Baltic Sea ocean climate. Two climate properties were studied: the annual maximum ice extent (MIB) and the vertically and horizontally integrated annual water temperature. Centennial time scale results indicate that the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries were the coldest centuries, while the 1690s were the coldest decade and 1695 the coldest year in the last 500 years. The results also indicate that the twentieth century was the warmest century with the least MIB of the last 500 years. On a decadal time scale, the 1990s, 1930s and 1730s were the warmest decades and comparable in terms of both water temperature and MIB. The year 1989 had the minimum observed MIB of only 52,000 km², implying that the Baltic Sea has been partly ice covered in all winters of the past half millennium. Even though different climate forcing mechanisms may operate on the climate system today compared to over the last half millennium, this study cannot clearly state that the region is experiencing climate change outside the natural limits of the past 500 years.     

有效辐射强迫的概念及其最新估值:IPCC AR6解读

依据政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 第六次评估报告 (AR6) 第一工作组 (WGI) 报告第七章的内容,详细介绍了AR6最新定义的有效辐射强迫 (ERF)及其计算方法,并给出了自工业革命以来 (1750—2019年) 各气候辐射强迫因子ERF的最佳估值。根据AR6的最新评估,工业革命以来总人为ERF的估值为2.72 (1.96～3.48) W·m^-2,相较于AR5 估计结果 (1750—2011年) 增长了0.43 W·m^-2。2011年后温室气体浓度的增加及其辐射效率的修正是造成总人为ERF增加的主要原因。自工业革命以来温室气体浓度变化造成的ERF为3.84 (3.46～4.22) W·m^-2,二氧化碳仍然是其中的最大贡献因素 (56％±16％)。而气溶胶的总ERF (气溶胶-辐射相互作用 (ERFari) 与气溶胶-云相互作用 (ERFaci) 的总和) 为-1.1(-1.7～-0.4) W·m^-2,其中ERFari贡献20％～25％,ERFaci贡献接近75％～80％。AR6中气溶胶的总ERF的估算相较于AR5在数值上有所增加,而不确定性有所减少。但由于没有考虑部分重要的调整过程,ERFaci仍然存在较大的不确定性。     

The effect of the temporal resolution of the wind forcing on a central Mediterranean Sea model

The impact of the wind forcing temporal resolution in the central Mediterranean Sea is addressed using a numerical ocean circulation model. The model uses interactive surface fluxes based on the ERA-Interim 6-hourly atmospheric reanalyses except for the 10 m wind for which ERA5 hourly reanalyses are used. Additional temporal resolution (2, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h) wind sets are deduced from the ERA5 hourly data. An ensemble of simulations (six members) is then performed where only the temporal resolution of the wind forcing is changed. The impact of the temporal resolution is studied based on this set of simulations. The dependence of the surface wind stress and heat flux on the wind resolution is derived based on an analytical expression where the Weibull distribution is used to characterise the probability density function of the wind speed. Results from the analytical model are found close to those from the numerical model when a linear increase of the exchange coefficients with the wind speed is considered. Power input into the sea and surface heat loss both increase with the increase of the temporal resolution but at lower rates when approaching hourly forcing values. The increase of the latent heat loss at these high resolutions is small (~−0.8 Wm^-2) but still important, around 10–20% the Mediterranean basin heat budget (−5 to −7 Wm^-2). The increase of the wind forcing temporal resolution decreases the sea surface temperature (SST) and increases the sea surface salinity (SSS) with largest values in the shallow area of the Gulf of Gabès (eastern coast of Tunisia). A decrease of SSS is however noticed in some areas mainly northwest of the Tunisia coast. Hydrographical changes are also found in the Tunisia-Sicily channel. They are characterised by mesoscale structures with no remarkable change of the major water veins.     

多层四流球谐函数算法的构建及在大气辐射传输模式中的应用

为了在不大幅度增加计算成本的情况下提高大气辐射传输计算的精度,利用单层四流球谐函数结合多层二流累加法,构造了可用于多层大气的四流球谐函数算法。为了比较与其他辐射传输算法的差异,引入48流离散纵坐标算法作为比较标准,Eddington 近似、四流离散纵坐标算法作为比较对象。在真实大气廓线条件下,计算了晴空和有云大气顶向上辐射通量、地表向下辐射通量以及加热率廓线。得出以下结论：在晴空情况下,与作为标准的48流离散纵坐标法相比,Eddington 近似、四流离散纵坐标法和新构造的四流球谐函数方法加热率绝对误差都小于0?3 K／d;向上、向下辐射通量的相对误差分别小于1％和0?6％。这表明在晴空情况下,3种算法对加热率的计算精度差别不大;对辐射通量的计算精度,两种四流近似算法比传统的 Eddington 近似更为精确。在有云情况下,与48流离散纵坐标法相比,四流球谐函数和四流离散纵坐标法计算的云顶加热率相对误差小于1％,而 Eddington 近似计算的云顶加热率相对误差大于5％。结果表明：新构造的四流球谐函数算法可用于大气辐射传输模式,在不大幅度增加计算成本的同时,提高了晴空大气的整体辐射计算精度和有云大气辐射加热率的计算精度。