滑坡堰塞坝堆积形态影响因素离散元分析

滑坡是形成堰塞坝的最主要原因,在地震、降雨、冰雪融水等作用下均可形成滑坡堰塞坝,而滑坡堰塞坝的堆积形态、范围等对评价堰塞坝的稳定性有着重要的影响。通过离散元方法(DEM),系统分析了三维条件下滑动距离、滑面出口宽度、滑面倾角、河床倾角、河谷形状对堰塞坝堆积形态的影响。研究结果表明：滑动距离和出口宽度对坝体高度影响最大;随出口宽度和坡面倾角的增加,坝长和坝宽分别呈线性增大和减小趋势;滑动距离可以有效控制滑体速度,进而影响堆积角大小;河床倾角主要影响坝长;对坝高、坝长、上下游绝对倾角正切值和堆积角正切值进行回归分析表明,数学模型契合程度高,说明其形态可以预测;引入2个参数λ和χ,对堰塞坝堆积特征进行了描述;河谷形状的影响主要体现在随着河谷底部宽度的增大,滑体爬高爬坡能力增强。研究成果对根据实际地形预测滑坡堰塞坝堆积形态进而评估坝体的安全性具有重要意义,可以为进一步开展堰塞湖溃决研究提供一定的参考。     

基于SSA-Adam-BP神经网络模型的堰塞坝稳定性预测

现有的堰塞坝稳定性预测模型多为线性模型,无法充分考虑堰塞坝稳定性与其形态特征和水域条件之间的复杂非线性关系。鉴于此,结合反向传播神经网络模型和樽海鞘优化算法,提出了一种新型的堰塞坝稳定性预测模型SSA-Adam-BP。该模型通过网格搜索法选取确定模型结构的最佳超参数组合,进而利用交叉验证和绘制ROC曲线的方式分别对采用不同优化算法的模型进行评估。使用开源数据库中的全球153例堰塞坝数据对模型的实际应用进行了说明及验证。与传统线性模型的对比表明神经网络模型预测准确率较高,具有较低的误报率。将SSA与Adam优化算法结合提高了BP模型的全局搜索能力,其平均交叉验证准确率达到了91.73%,能够使用较少的参数实现对堰塞坝稳定性快速准确的预测。SSA-Adam-BP模型对近年来典型工程的稳定性能够准确预测,具有一定的实用性和系统平台推广应用价值。     

基于层状地貌对渤海辽东湾西岸新构造运动特征研究

层状地貌是指成层分布的台地、阶地、河漫滩、海滩和成层的海蚀穴、饱水带溶洞等。一、层状地貌特征1．剥蚀台地剥蚀台地主要分布在辽东湾阎家屯一台里-小海山一带,呈北东向展布,海拔10m～30m,顶部平坦,坡度〈5°。由太古宇建平群大营子组及绥中花岗岩构成,部分上覆中一上更新统残积物、残坡积物。台地北西为南西一北东走向的凌角河河谷平原（蛇山—刘台子一长山寺湾）,台地前缘陡坎高出凌角河河谷平原约6m。     

基于坡表变形分析与降雨响应模拟的立节北山滑坡运动特征

速度倒数法(INV)是基于坡表变形特征的滑坡启滑预测工具,其与滑坡内部多物理场演化的关系仍需进一步明晰。开展了甘肃省舟曲县立节北山滑坡的勘察与坡表变形监测,采用基于速度倒数法、速度阈值法、以非饱和土理论为基础的边坡降雨响应模拟3种方法,对该滑坡的运动特征与失稳的内在机制展开了研究。研究结果表明：边坡变形速度倒数-时间曲线有明显的加速起始点。速度倒数在2021年6月3日达到最低值后,进入约60 d的平稳期,在9月20日突然加速,并在20 d内速度达到200 mm/d以上,变形不再收敛。基于速度倒数法得到的滑坡生命周期结束点,与实际的失稳点相差8 d,提前约130 d对该突发性滑坡进行了预报。根据全过程速度时程曲线,存在20,60,100 mm/d的多级速度阈值。边坡应力场、变形场、渗流场的数值模拟结果显示,变形时程曲线的拐点与降雨强度的增加相关,累计降雨量与安全系数呈指数负相关。数值模拟得到的累计变形为2 250 mm,变形速度为10～35 mm/d,速度倒数为0.03～0.12 d/mm,与实际监测数据接近。综上所述,速度倒数法对立节北山滑坡的生命周期进行了有效预测,基于速度的预警阈值...     

基于深度学习的滑坡灾害易发性分析

滑坡灾害成因机理复杂、影响因素众多,深度学习作为当前人工智能领域的热点,能够更好地模拟滑坡灾害的形成并准确预测潜在的斜坡。为了挖掘深度学习在滑坡易发性的应用潜能,本文构建了一维、二维和三维的滑坡数据表达形式,并提出3种基于卷积神经网络模型（Convolutional Neural Networks, CNN）的滑坡易发性分析处理框架：基于CNN分类器、基于CNN与逻辑回归的融合和基于CNN集成,最后以江西省铅山县为研究对象进行验证,结果表明：所有基于CNN的易发性模型都能够获得准确且可靠的滑坡易发性分析结果。其中,基于二维数据的CNN模型在所有单分类器中预测精度最高,为78.95%。此外,二维CNN特征提取能够显著提升逻辑回归的预测精度,其准确率提升7.9%。最后,异质集成策略能够大幅度提升基于CNN分类器的滑坡预测精度,其准确率提升4.35%~8.78%。     

基于DEM小流域复杂网络的黄土高原地貌自动识别研究

地貌识别,对于人类建设,地质构造研究,环境治理等相关领域都有着重要意义。传统的基于像素单元或面向对象的地貌识别方法存在局限性。由于流域小单元具有表面形态的完整性,在地貌演化中具有明确的地理意义,基于流域小单元的地貌识别成为了该领域的一个新热点。然而,基于传统地形因子的地貌识别方法使用的因子往往较为单一或者在地学描述上存在重复性,目前尚无针对流域小单元进行空间结构描述和拓扑关系特征量化的地貌识别研究。基于此,本文基于DEM进行水文分析并通过坡谱方法解决了小流域稳定面积难以确定的问题,在黄土高原样区提取了181个稳定小流域。根据复杂网络理论和地貌学原理提出了流域加权复杂网络的概念和相应的8个定量指标用于流域空间结构的模拟和量化描述。最后采用了基于决策树的XGBoost机器学习算法进行地貌识别,实验对于黄土高原主要地貌类型的识别显现出较好的效果,Kappa系数为86.00%,总体精度达到了88.33%。对于地貌形态特征明显的地貌,复杂网络方法其顾及空间结构和拓扑特征的特性导致了其较高的识别性能,精度和召回率都在90%～100%之间。通过与前人的研究进行对比,其识别结果亦呈现出较高的精度,这些...     

基于逻辑回归模型和3S技术的思南县滑坡易发性评价

区域滑坡易发性评价对滑坡灾害防治具有重要意义，贵州省思南县由于其特殊的自然地理和地质条件，受滑坡地质灾害的影响非常严重，因此，非常有必要对思南县的滑坡易发性进行评价。在滑坡编录的基础上，采用由RS、GIS和GPS组成的3S技术，获取了思南县的数字高程模型、坡度、坡向、剖面曲率、坡长、岩土类型、地表湿度指数、距离水系的距离、植被覆盖度和地表建筑物指数10个滑坡影响因子；再在频率比和相关性分析的基础上，利用逻辑回归模型对思南县的滑坡易发性进行了评价并绘制了易发性分布图。结果表明:利用逻辑回归模型预测思南县滑坡易发性的准确率(AUC值)达到0.797，较为准确地预测出了思南县滑坡分布规律；极高和高滑坡易发区主要分布在高程低于600 m、地表坡度较大且以软质岩类为主的区域；而极低和低滑坡易发区主要分布在高程较高、地表坡度较小且以硬质岩类为主的区域。      

基于TLS的滑坡形变分析方法研究

以四川理县一地质滑坡为例,分析扫描点空间位置的理论精度,探讨点云数据获取以及点云过滤、点云拼接、地理参考等数据预处理的关键技术,给出一套比较直观、全面的滑坡形变分析方法,包括基于点云比较的形变分析、基于TIN比较的形变分析、基于特征点的形变分析以及基于DEM的形变分析。为了充分利用非地面点云数据,提出一种提取滑坡区域电线杆、树干的几何特征来分析滑坡水平变化的新方法。通过分析得到的滑坡形变量与GNSS远程实时监测结果基本一致。     

基于地形特征融合的卷积神经网络滑坡识别

滑坡严重威胁着人民群众的生命财产安全。完整、准确的滑坡编录图是研究滑坡的重要资料。深度卷积神经网络方法由于众多优势而备受关注,然而卷积神经网络结构复杂,需要大量的训练样本,制约了其在滑坡制图上的发展。提出了融合地形特征的卷积神经网络建模方法。首先在遥感影像上叠加地形因子构建新的滑坡样本,然后设计提取并融合空间与光谱特征的轻量级卷积神经网络(FF-CNN),最后训练最优模型进行滑坡识别。在四川汶川地区进行的消融实验证明：在空间特征基础上融合光谱特征的FF-CNN模型滑坡识别评价指标F1分数和平均交并比(MIoU)分别提高0.020 2和0.014 4;在遥感影像上叠加地形因子后,FF-CNN模型滑坡识别评价指标F1分数和MIoU值分别提高0.066 4和0.048 2。在湖北省三峡库区和四川省都江堰市虹口乡的实验说明FF-CNN模型表现出较强的适用性和迁移能力,在滑坡识别上具有较大潜力。     

基于多重分形特征和分项组合预测联合响应的滑坡预警预测研究

为准确掌握滑坡变形发展规律,基于滑坡变形监测成果构建滑坡预警预测模型,即先利用MF-DFA模型开展滑坡变形数据的多重分形特征分析,并进一步利用M-K分析构建双重判据（Δa指标判据和Δf(a)指标判据）进行滑坡预警研究;另外,在利用集成经验模态分解法对滑坡变形数据信息进行分离处理基础上,通过GOA-RNN-CT模型实现滑坡变形的分项组合预测。结果表明,h(q)值随波动函数q值减小而减小,说明滑坡变形数据具有多重分形特征,且预警分级研究表明,滑坡预警等级为Ⅱ级,即滑坡变形趋向不利方向发展;同时,通过变形预测分析认为,分项组合预测在滑坡变形预测中具有较优的预测效果和稳定性,且外推预测结果显示,滑坡变形会继续增加;最后,将多重分形特征研究结果和变形预测分析结果进行联合响应综合得出,滑坡现有预警等级相对不利,且后续变形仍会进一步增加,趋向不稳定方向发展,建议对滑坡采取必要防治措施。     

Analysis of landslide dam geometries

The geometry of a landslide dam is an important component of evaluating dam stability. However, the geometry of a natural dam commonly cannot be obtained immediately with field investigations due to their remote locations. A rapid evaluation model is presented to estimate the geometries of natural dams based on the slope of the stream, volume of landslides, and the properties of the deposit. The proposed model uses high resolution satellite images to determine the geometry of the landside dam. These satellite images are the basic information to a preliminary stability analysis of a natural dam. This study applies the proposed method to two case studies in Taiwan. One is the earthquake-induced Lung-Chung landslide dam in Taitung, and the second is the rainfall-induced Shih-Wun landslide dam in Pingtung.     

Influence of inflow discharge and bed erodibility on outburst flood of landslide dam

Accurate prediction of the hydrographs of outburst floods induced by landslide dam overtopping failure is necessary for hazard prevention and mitigation. In this study, flume model tests on the breaching of landslide dams were conducted. Unconsolidated soil materials with wide grain size distributions were used to construct the dam. The effects of different upstream inflow discharges and downstream bed soil erosion on the outburst peak discharge were investigated. Experimental results reveal that the whole hydrodynamic process of landslide dam breaching can be divided into three stages as defined by clear inflection points and peak discharges. The larger the inflow discharge, the shorter the time it takes to reach the peak discharge, and the larger the outburst flood peak discharge. The scale of the outburst floods was found to be amplified by the presence of an erodible bed located downstream of the landslide dam. This amplification decreases with the increase of upstream inflow. In addition, the results show that the existence of an erodible bed increases the density of the outburst flow, increasing its probability of transforming from a sediment flow to a debris flow.     

A new approach to plane failure of rock slope stability based on water flow velocity in discontinuities for the Latian dam reservoir landslide

The stability of slopes is always of great concern in the field of rock engineering. The geometry and orientation of pre-existing discontinuities show a larger impact on the behavior of slopes that is often used to describe the measurement of the steepness, incline, gradient, or grade of a straight line. One of the structurally controlled modes of failure in jointed rock slopes is plane failure. There are numerous analytical methods for the rock slope stability including limit equilibrium, stress analysis and stereographic methods. The limiting equilibrium methods for slopes under various conditions against plane failure have been previously proposed by several investigators. However, these methods do not involve water pressure on sliding surfaces assessments due to water velocity and have not yet been validated by case study results. This paper has tried to explore the effects of forces due to water pressure on discontinuity surfaces in plane failure through applying the improved equations. It has studied the effect of water flow velocity on sliding surfaces in safety factor, as well. New equations for considering water velocity (fluid dynamics) are presented. To check the validity of the suggested equations, safety factor for a case study has been determined. Results show that velocity of water flow had significant effect on the amount of safety factor. Also, the suggested equations have higher validity rate compared to the current equations.     

基于滑坡灾害预警分级的应急处置措施

滑坡灾害应急处置能力是地质灾害减灾防灾的重要方面。目前,基于滑坡灾害预测和预警分级成果,系统性的应急措施分类研究还鲜有展开,因此,以三峡库区白水河滑坡为例,运用时间序列加法模型将滑坡累计位移分解为趋势项位移与周期项位移,并分别应用多项式拟合及自回归（AR）模型对2个分量进行预测,在此结果上采用聚类分析方法将滑坡变形分为匀速变形与加速变形阶段,综合判断滑坡灾害预警等级,开展了针对滑坡预警分级的应急措施研究。结果表明:白水河滑坡预警等级主要为蓝色和黄色2种类型,对处于不同的预警等级下的滑坡,可根据滑坡变形特征快速决策,基于滑坡灾害预测和预警分级结果能更有效地指导滑坡应急处置。      

Controls on geomorphic characteristics of the Xiaohei River basin in the upper Lancang-Mekong,China

Understanding the evolution of the fluvial geomorphology in an orogenic belt provides valuable insight into the relationship between upper crustal deformation and surface processes.The upper Lancang-Mekong River is in an area experiencing both uplift and erosion.The related processes provide a steady sediment supply to the lower reaches of the river and play an important role in the regional environmental changes.The Xiaohei(Weiyuan)River Basin is an important sub-basin in this area,which is characterized by large-scale topographic fluctuations,active tectonics and erosion,and anthropogenic activities.These different factors introduce numerous complexities to the local surface processes.In this study,we investigate and quantify the controls of geomorphic evolution of the Xiaohei River Basin.We located and mapped the main knick-zones within the channels and examined the main genetic factors,such as faults and stratigraphic differences.The results show that the areas with the lowest uplift rates are characterized by a low steepness index and are located in the southeastern part of the basin.The stream power of the mainstream increases downstream,with an average value of^122 W/m.The erosional activity of the various stream channels is intense.Overall,the basin tends to expansion,with only local instances of inward contraction.Our analysis confirms that a number of the geomorphic evolutionary characteristics of the Xiaohei River Basin are transient.In addition,the future potential for the increasing the number of dams and the hydropower development in the basin may weaken the expansion trend of the basin over a long period of time.     

Stability characteristics of shallow landslide triggered by rainfall

Rainfall induced shallow landslides are known to be extremely dangerous since the sliding mass can propagate quickly and travel far from the source. Although the sliding mechanism in sloping ground is simple to understand, the problem may be complicated by unsaturated transient water flow. The flow behavior of rainwater in unsaturated sloping ground and the consequent factor of safety must be clearly understood to assess slope stability under rainfall conditions. A series of laboratory experiments was conducted to examine the critical hydrological states so that assessment of slope stability under rainfall condition can be performed. Based on the test results, a unique relationship between critical hydrological states, rainfall intensity, and soil properties was formulated. Sequential stability analysis provided insights into the stability of slopes subjected to variations in soil properties, slope angles and rainfall intensities, and the consequent variation in the depth of the failure plane, vital in landslide risk assessment, was determined through this analysis.The variation of rainfall intensity was found to strongly affect the depth of the failure plane in cohesionless sloping ground. Furthermore, the influence of rainfall intensity on the depth of the failure plane may be alleviated by a small magnitude of cohesive strength. The results of this study will reinforce knowledge of landslide behavior and help to improve mitigation measures in susceptible areas.     

Mapping of geomorphic dynamic parameters for analysis of landslide hazards: A case of Yangbi river basin on the upper Lancang-Mekong of China

Landslides are common hazards in orogenic belt areas. However, it is difficult to quantitatively express the driving effects of tectonic uplift and stream erosion on the occurrence of landslides on large spatial scales by conducting field investigations. In this study, we analyzed a relatively large region that extends over the Yangbi River basin on the upper Lancang-Mekong in China. A series of quantitative indices, including kernel density of the landslide(KDL), hypsometric integral(HI), steepness index(ksn), stream power(?), and stream power gradient(ω) were used to explore the promoting effects of tectonic uplift and stream action intensity on landslides by mapping geomorphic dynamic parameters combined with actual landslide data. The analysis showed that the HI value in the highest landslide risk area was approximately 0.47, and that the KDL in the region can be expressed as a function of steepness or stream power gradient of the channel network, namely, KDL = 0.0127 Ln ksn-0.0167(R~2 = 0.72, P 0.001) and KDL = 0.0219 Ln ω-0.0558(R~2 = 0.21, P 0.02). Therefore, the lower reach of the Yangbi River basin, with higher steepness and stream power gradient, usually has a high uplifting rate and stream incision that drives landslides and causes the entire river network system to be in a stage of longterm active erosion. Furthermore, the results suggest that sediments were being rapidly discharged from the steep tributary channels to the mainstream. This practical situation highlights that the downstream area of the river basin is a high-risk area for landslide hazards, especially in association with heavy rainfall and earthquakes.     

Characteristics and interpretation of the seismic signal of a field-scale landslide dam failure experiment

Outburst floods caused by breaches of landslide dams may cause serious damages and loss of lives in downstream areas; for this reason the study of the dynamic of the process is of particular interest for hazard and risk assessment. In this paper we report a field-scale landslide dam failure experiment conducted in Nantou County, in the central of Taiwan.The seismic signal generated during the dam failure was monitored using a broadband seismometer and the signal was used to study the dam failure process.We used the short-time Fourier transform(STFT) to obtain the time–frequency characteristics of the signal and analyzed the correlation between the power spectrum density(PSD) of the signal and the water level. The results indicate that the seismic signal generated during the process consisted of three components: a low-frequency band(0–1.5 Hz), an intermediate-frequency band(1.5–10 Hz) and a highfrequency band(10–45 Hz). We obtained the characteristics of each frequency band and the variations of the signal in various stages of the landslide dam failure process. We determined the cause for the signal changes in each frequency band and its relationship with the dam failure process. The PSD sediment flux estimation model was used to interpret the causes of variations in the signal energy before the dam failure and the clockwise hysteresis during the failure. Our results show that the seismic signal reflects the physical characteristics of the landslide dam failure process. The method and equipment used in this study may be used to monitor landslide dams and providing early warnings for dam failures.     

Rapid prediction models for 3D geometry of landslide dam considering the damming process

The geometry of a landslide dam plays a critical role in its stability and failure mode, and is influenced by the damming process. However, there is a lack of understanding of the factors that affect the 3D geometry of a landslide dam. To address this gap,we conducted a study using the smoothed particle hydrodynamics numerical method to investigate the evolution of landslide dams. Our study included 17 numerical simulations to examine the effects of several factors on the geometry of landslide d...