玄武岩台地滑坡与土壤发生学类型研究

本文通过研究浙江省玄武岩台地地区滑坡与土壤发生学类型之间的关系 ,结果表明 :滑坡主要产生在棕泥土 (新明系 )和棕泥田 (城塘系 )土壤上 ,有时也发生在黄粘泥 (大岚系 )土壤上。但是 ,在这个区域内很少有滑坡发生在红粘泥 (沈塘系 )和山黄粘泥 (项白山系 )上。发现滑坡产生的主要因素是土壤发育程度     

降雨与开挖作用下黄土滑坡失稳过程分析:以关中地区长武县杨厂村老庙滑坡为例

降雨入渗和人工开挖是诱发黄土滑坡的重要因素,为了研究在这2种诱因作用下关中地区黄土滑坡失稳过程及其对稳定性的影响,以陕西省长武县杨厂村老庙滑坡为研究对象,通过现场调查、地质测绘和钻孔勘探,查明了该滑坡变形特征,定性分析了滑坡变形演变过程;基于滑坡变形前15 d内日降雨量实测值,采用有限元软件,对坡脚开挖后连续降雨作用下滑坡形成过程进行了仿真模拟;基于强度折减法对该滑坡稳定性变化规律进行了研究。结果表明：(1)关中地区特殊的地层结构是滑坡变形的内因,降雨是最主要的诱发因素;(2)滑坡失稳演化过程表现为：坡体处于蠕滑状态,坡脚开挖后,坡体前缘失稳,牵引中后缘坡体向下错动而产生张拉裂缝,在降雨作用下,雨水沿裂缝渗入坡体深部,滑坡中部岩土体浸水后抗剪强度降低,从而导致黄土层与红黏土层接触面饱水形成贯通滑带,诱发深层滑坡;(3)滑坡开挖后较初始状态,稳定性系数降幅为0.102,此后受连续降雨影响,稳定性系数在前10 d以平均0.010/d的速率缓慢下降,第10～13 d以0.034/d的速率快速下降至最低,第13 d以后开始回升。研究结果可以为该类滑坡防治提供有效依据。     

基于降雨强度-历时评价边坡稳定性——以安徽省3个边坡为例

为了探究降雨条件对边坡稳定性的影响,确定降雨阈值曲线,利用FLAC^2D 7.0数值模拟软件对安徽省3个小型边坡进行饱和-非饱和渗流及稳定性分析,获取了边坡安全系数随降雨强度和历时的变化趋势。边坡监测位置处孔隙水压力与饱和度的变化结果显示：降雨对边坡的影响是有限的,降雨历时越长,极限降雨强度越小并趋于稳定,边坡趋于饱和,此时安全系数达到最小值,后续降雨对边坡安全系数影响很小;为确保安全,假设临界安全系数为1.15,对应降雨强度为临界降雨强度,降雨历时越长,临界降雨强度越小并趋于稳定,3个边坡临界降雨强度趋于稳定时分别为13、12和16 mm·d^-1,对应的降雨历时分别为5、9和12 d,表明前期降雨对边坡稳定性影响很大。利用这3个边坡的临界降雨强度数据进行降雨阈值曲线拟合,并以435组安徽省2008～2022年历史灾害降雨数据验证该降雨阈值曲线。结果表明：95%以上的灾害数据点可以被该降雨阈值曲线预测。     

东北界河河岸稳定性评价:以乌苏里江饶河段为例

近年来,东北界河乌苏里江我国一侧塌岸地质灾害频发,江岸侵蚀严重,对沿岸居民的生产生活造成严重影响。针对这一情况,利用多源、多尺度、多时相遥感数据及研究区地质图、地形图、地貌图,结合野外实地调查工作和GIS技术,提取了植被覆盖度、工程地质、地貌特征、护岸类型和剖面地质结构及研究区塌岸地质灾害数据,建立了河岸稳定性评价体系;采用似然比方法对饶河段河岸稳定性进行了定量评价,得到了河岸稳定性分区结果;并对分区结果的可靠性和精确性做了评价和验证,发现分区结果与实际情况具有较好的一致性。本研究基于多源地学数据,利用似然比开展河岸稳定性评价,对塌岸地质灾害调查、环境保护和防灾减灾具有重要的理论意义和现实价值。      

三峡库区堆积层滑坡间歇性活动预测:以白水河滑坡为例

三峡库区堆积层滑坡在季节性降雨和库水位周期波动的影响下呈现间歇性活动特征,滑坡活动强度与诱发因素作用强度和时间关系密切。以三峡库区白水河滑坡为例,分析了堆积层滑坡间歇性活动特征和诱发因素,发现降雨和库水位下降是滑坡变形的主要诱发因素。根据滑坡时序曲线特征,将滑坡累积位移分解为趋势项位移和周期项位移,采用多项式拟合的方法来预测趋势项位移,利用长短期记忆神经网络模型来预测周期项位移,并与极限学习机模型、广义回归神经网络模型的预测结果进行了对比分析,发现长短期记忆神经网络模型预测滑坡间歇性活动精度更高。     

省级地质灾害风险评价技术方法研究——以浙江省为例

省级地质灾害风险图是指导区域地质灾害防治和空间规划的重要依据。本文以浙江省为研究区,在浙江省县(市、区)1∶50000农村山区地质灾害调查数据基础上,按照地质灾害易发性、危险性和易损性的递进关系分析计算浙江省地质灾害风险程度。在选择不同重现期24h暴雨强度计算危险性时,采用分区域24h暴雨强度引发地质灾害群发的上、下限阈值计算的地质灾害危险性,用于该区域地质灾害风险评价的结果更符合实际。经对浙江省区域计算结果显示:浙江省在遭受50年一遇暴雨强度工况下,全省以中低风险为主,极高、高风险区主要分布于丘陵山区的人口聚集的集镇,能够体现浙江省极端暴雨条件下地质灾害风险程度。该方法为中小比例尺的区域暴雨型地质灾害风险评价提供了技术参考。     

采用多模型融合方法评价滑坡灾害易发性:以湖北省五峰县为例

不同的易发性评价模型可以得到有差异的滑坡空间预测结果，选取最优模型甚至综合各模型的优势是提高易发性评价精度的有效方法。为检验模型融合思路的有效性，以鄂西地区五峰县渔洋关镇为研究区，提取坡度、地层、断层、河流、公路等7个滑坡成因条件，分别采用信息量模型、证据权模型和频率比模型进行滑坡易发性评价；并将3种模型分别进行归一化、主成分分析（PCA，Principal component analysis）和优势融合，得到了6幅易发性分区图。结果表明:优势耦合模型精度最高（90.3%），频率比模型次之（89.7%），归一化融合模型和PCA融合模型分别为89.3%和89.1%，以上4种结果的精度均高于证据权模型（87.7%）和信息量模型（87.6%）；6幅预测图对应的评价结论与历史滑坡空间分布的实际情况相符。空间一致性对比结论表明，主成分融合模型与优势耦合模型的同格率高达68%，其预测结果避免了单个模型预测结论带来的偶然性和片面性，说明多模型融合方法与优势耦合模型在提高滑坡易发性预测精度上是可行性的，该思路对其他地区滑坡灾害易发性评价具有借鉴意义。      

降雨对滑坡稳定性影响的分析及模拟——以融水苗族自治县良寨乡安全村为例

文章介绍如何采用GeoStudio软件,利用SEEP/W与SLOPE/W耦合,对融水苗族自治县良寨乡安全村滑坡体进行边坡稳定性分析,计算出边坡完全系数,并分析该滑坡随降雨量的变化趋势,随后建立降雨量与滑坡安全系数的关系曲线,为后续滑坡监测及预警提供依据。     

基于空间多尺度分析的滑坡易发性评价——以三峡库区秭归-巴东段为例

以三峡库区秭归-巴东段为例,将地理加权回归(GWR)模型引入到研究区的空间尺度分割方法中,利用粒子群优化(PSO)算法对支持向量机(SVM)模型参数进行优化,构建GWR-PSO-SVM耦合模型,完成研究区滑坡易发性评价,并与传统的PSO-SVM耦合模型结果进行对比。结果表明,在特定类别精度分析、总体预测精度分析和曲线下面积分析中,本文方法评价效果均优于传统方法。     

Statistical landslide susceptibility assessment in a dynamic environment: A case study for Lanzhou City,Gansu Province,NW China

This study presents a statistical landslide susceptibility assessment (LSA) in a dynamic environment. The study area is located in the eastern part of Lanzhou, NW China. The Lanzhou area has exhibited rapid urbanization rates over the past decade associated with greening, continuous land use change, and geomorphic reshaping activities. To consider the dynamics of the environment in the LSA, multitemporal data for landslide inventories and the corresponding causal factors were collected. The weights of evidence (WofE) method was used to perform the LSA. Three time stamps, i.e., 2000, 2012, and 2016, were selected to assess the state of landslide susceptibility over time. The results show a clear evolution of the landslide susceptibility patterns that was mainly governed by anthropogenic activities directed toward generating safer building grounds for civil infrastructure. The low and very low susceptibility areas increased by approximately 10% between 2000 and 2016. At the same time, areas of medium, high and very high susceptibility zones decreased proportionally. Based on the results, an approach to design the statistical LSA under dynamic conditions is proposed, the issues and limitations of this approach are also discussed. The study shows that under dynamic conditions, the requirements for data quantity and quality increase significantly. A dynamic environment requires greater effort to estimate the causal relations between the landslides and controlling factors as well as for model validation.     

Application of multi-agent models to urban expansion in medium and small cities: A case study in Fuyang City, Zhejiang Province, China

In this study, three-phase satellite images were used to define rules for the allocation of time and space in construction land resources based on a complex adaptive system and game theory. The decision behavior and rules of government agent, enterprise agent and resident agent in construction land growth were explored. A distinctive and dynamic simulation model of construction land growth was built, which integrated multi-agent, GIS technology and RS data and described the interaction among influencing agents, Taking Fuyang City in the Changjiang River Delta as an example, an assessment process for the remote sensing data in construction land and scenario planning was constructed. Repast and ArcGIS were used as simulation platforms. A simulation of the spatial pattern in land-use planning and the setting of scenario planning were conducted by using the incomplete active game, which was based on different natural, social and economic levels. Through this model, a simulation of urban planning space and decision-making for Fuyang City was created. Relevant non-structured problems arising from urban planning management could be identified, and the process and logic of urban planning spatial decision-making could thus be improved. Cell-by-cell comparison showed that the simulation accuracy was over 72%. This model has great potential for use by government and town planners in decision support and technique support in the policy-making process.     

确定性系数与随机森林模型在云南芒市滑坡易发性评价中的应用

编制科学的滑坡易发性分区图,可以有效降低灾害带来的损失。以云南省芒市为研究区,利用确定性系数模型（certainty factor,简称CF）方法计算各个因子的敏感值,作为随机森林（random forests,简称RF）的分类数据,选取合适的训练数据和最优化的模型参数进行模型预测,从而对研究区进行滑坡易发性评价分区。采用频率比方法将连续性因子离散化,从而通过确定性系数计算因子不同区间的滑坡易发性,同时利用CF先验模型,对研究区负样本进行选取。通过计算袋外误差得到最优化的RF参数,随后利用RF模型对研究区模型进行训练及预测。绘制ROC曲线和三维遥感影像对预测模型结果分别进行定量和定性评价,结果表明,所得到的模型精度为91%,优于随机抽样得到的结果。最后,采用平均基尼不纯度减少和平均准确度下降两种计算方法计算、评价了研究区各个因子的重要性。基于以上对研究区进行的滑坡易发性评价结果,可以为该区灾害风险评估和管理提供依据。      

Comprehensive evaluation of rural courtyard utilization efficiency: A case study in Shandong Province,Eastern China

China is implementing the strategy of Rural Revitalization. Revitalizing idle and inefficient utilization courtyards is an important measure for rural revitalization. The evaluation of courtyard utilization efficiency is the basis of determining the idle and inefficient utilization courtyards in order to revitalizing it. This study provided a reference for the optimal use of rural courtyard utilization and revitalization through the quantitative comprehensive evaluation of courtyard utilization efficiency and the classification of courtyard utilization types. Taking Shandong Province in Eastern China as study area, we selected eight surveyed villages by stratified sampling method. According to the scale of the villages, full survey and sample survey were used, while middleaged men who familiar with the courtyards were selected as the respondents. Through a household questionnaire survey and face-to-face interviews from2017 to 2018, 578 questionnaires of rural courtyardsin eight villages were obtained. Then based on the functions of rural courtyard and land resource conditions, 16 comprehensive factors were formulated,involving land conditions, construction conditions and economic benefits, to build the comprehensive evaluation index system of rural courtyard utilization efficiency. Next the index weight was determined by analytic hierarchy process, and the linear weighted regression model was used to evaluate the utilization efficiency of rural courtyard. Finally, the K-means clustering analysis was used to classify the utilization efficiency of courtyards. The results showed that among the eight villages, the average utilization efficiency of courtyards was moderate(one village was low, five were moderate, and two were high). The proportions of both idle and inefficiently utilized courtyards were high. There were three vital factors leading to the idle and low efficiency of rural courtyards. They were declining rural industries,limited arable land per capita, and more farmer workers. In this case, the utilization efficiency of courtyards should be improved by transferring rural land, developing secondary and tertiary industries,evaluating the development potential of villages,classifying and optimizing courtyard utilization, so as to make full use of idle and inefficient courtyards,increase the income of farmers and collectives and promote the revitalization of rural areas.     

Mechanism of colluvial landslide induction by rainfall and slope construction: A case study

The landslide hazards occurring in the complex geological genesis accumulation body are usually controlled by the coupling action of many internal and external factors. Therefore, this paper takes the dam-front Danbo accumulation body landslide of Yangfanggou hydropower station on the Yalong River as the geological prototype, and discusses the process and mechanism of slope stability degradation under the combined action of rainfall and slope construction. Based on the detailed understanding of the basic characteristics of the accumulation body, the development characteristics of the landslide and the construction situation of the slope engineering, the study conducted correlation analysis between rainfall and landslide displacement, the physical and mechanical tests of all types of rocksoil masses, and the numerical simulation testing of seepage field variation of the landslide section. It is found that the special slope structure and material composition of the old landslide accumulation layer on the upper part of the Danbo accumulation body are the internal factors for the occurrence of thrust loadinduced landslide, and the construction of the slope engineering not only creates free space conditions for sliding, but also provides channels for the infiltration of rainfall into the slope after confluence, which is an external factor that caused the mechanical properties of the sliding zone soil to gradually weaken from the trailing edge to the leading edge. The geomechanical model of such landslide is that the active section of the trailing edge produces the "source of force", the transition section of the middle section affects the occurrence of sliding, and the anti-sliding section of the leading edge controls the occurrence of landslide hazards. The results of this research provide not only a useful supplement to the theory of landslide formation mechanisms but also a scientific basis for guiding the prevention and control of similar hazards.     

Analysing post-earthquake landslide susceptibility using multi-temporal landslide inventories——a case study in Miansi Town of China

The earthquake that occurred on May 12, 2008, in Wenchuan County aroused a great deal of research on co-seismic landslide susceptibility assessment, but there is still a lack of an evaluation method that considers the activity state of the landslide itself. Therefore, this paper establishes a new susceptibility evaluation model that superimposes the active landslide state based on previous susceptibility evaluation models. Based on a multi-phase landslide database, the probabilistic approach was used to evaluate landslide susceptibility in the Miansi town over many years. We chose the elevation, slope, aspect, and distance from the channel as trigger factors and then used the probability comprehensive discrimination method to calculate the probability of landslide occurrence. Then, the susceptibility results of each period were calculated by superposition with the activity rate. The results show that between 2008 and 2014, the proportion of areas with low landslide susceptibility in the study area was the largest, and the proportionof areas with the highest susceptibility was minimal. The landslide area with highest susceptibility gradually decreased from 2014 to 2017. However, in 2017, 15.06% of the area was still with high susceptibility, and relevant disaster prevention and reduction measures should be taken in these areas. The larger area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC) indicates that the results of the landslide susceptibility assessment in this study are more objective and reliable than those of previous models. The difference in the AUC values over many years shows that the accuracy of the evaluation results of this model is not constant, and a greater number of landslides or higher landslide activity corresponds to a higher accuracy of the evaluation results.     

Numerical modeling of bed deposition in rapid flow-like landslides: a case study of the Gaolou landslide in Shaanxi Province,China

Some flow-like landslides tend to lose materials while moving on a relatively dry sliding surface.This phenomenon is called bed deposition.In contrast to the bed entrainment phenomenon,bed deposition is relatively poorly understood.Therefore,an improved depth-averaged model is proposed to quantify this phenomenon.The deposition depth is calculated according to the momentum conservation of the deposited mass,and the rheological property of the sliding mass on the bottom is modified considering an abrupt increase in the depth of the sliding surface after deposition.Utilizing the proposed model,the Gaolou landslide,a typical flowlike landside occurring on October 6 th,2006 with an obvious bed deposition phenomenon in Shaanxi Province of China,is simulated to investigate the influence of bed deposition on its propagation process.The results indicate that the proposed model can effectively depict the bed deposition phenomenon in the Gaolou landslide.Bed deposition dissipates part of the kinetic energy of this landslide;thus,the simulated debris inundation area would likely be overestimated when this effect is neglected.On the other hand,the thin liquefied layer formed by the bed deposition process reduces the friction energy dissipation,contributing to the high mobility of this landslide.     

Design of an index system for deep groundwater management efficiency evaluation: A case study in Tianjin City,China

An effective evaluation system can provide specific and practical suggestions to the deep groundwater management. But such kind of evaluation system has not been proposed in China. In this study, an evaluation index system is specifically developed to evaluate deep groundwater management efficiency. It is composed of three first-level indicators (law enforcement capability, management ability, and management effectiveness) and eleven second-level indicators. The second-level indicators include seven mandatory indicators and four optional indicators. Piecewise linear function is used to normalize the quantitative indicators, and expert scoring method and questionnaire survey method are used to normalize the qualitative indicators. Then a comprehensive indicator weighting evaluation method is used to evaluate the first-level indicators and the target topic. A case study is carried out to evaluate deep groundwater management efficiency in Tianjin City. According to the evaluation score in each period, the management efficiency of every district in Tianjin City gradually improved. The overall evaluation score in the early deep groundwater extraction period is 0.12. After a series of deep groundwater protection efforts, this score reached to 0.61 in 2007, and met the regulation criteria. The evaluation results also showed that the further groundwater management efforts in Tianjin City should be focused on building a dynamic database to collect comprehensive deep well-log data; and on a reasonable design and distribution of the groundwater monitoring network. It demonstrated that the index system is suitable to locate the deficiencies of current groundwater management systems and to guide further improvements. It can then be used to protect deep groundwater.     

Landform planation index extracted from DEMs: A case study in ordos platform of China

Planation surface, a surface that is almost flat, is a kind of low-relief landforms. Planation surface is the consequence of the denudation and planation processes under a tectonic stable condition. The quantitative expression of the characteristics of planation surface plays a key role in reconstructing and describing the evolutionary process of landforms. In this study, Landform Planation Index (LPI), a new terrain derivative, was proposed to quantify the characteristics of planation surface. The LPIs were calculated based on the summit surfaces formed according to the clustering results of peaks. Ten typical areas in the Ordos Platform located in the central part of the Loess Plateau of China are chosen as the test areas for investigating their planation characteristics with the LPI. The experimental results indicate that the LPI can be effectively used to quantify the characteristics of planation surfaces. In addition, the LPI can be further used to depict the patterns of spatial differentiation in the Ordos Platform. Although the present Ordos Platform area is full of the high-density gullies, its planation characteristics is found to be well preserved. Furthermore, the characteristics of the planation surfaces can also reflect the original morphology of the Ordos Platform before the loess dusts deposition process evolved in this area. The statistical results of the LPI show that there is a gradually increasing tendency along with the increasing of slope gradient of summit surface. It indicates that the characteristics of planation surfaces vary among test areas with different landforms. These findings help to deepen the understanding of planation characteristics of the loess landform and its underlying paleotopography. Results of this study can be also served as an important theoretical reference value for revealing the evolutionary process of loess landform.