Household migration in disaster impact analysis: incorporating behavioural responses to risk

Detailed estimates of economy-wide disaster losses provide important inputs for disaster risk management. The most common models used to estimate losses are input–output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. A key strength of these models is their ability to capture the ripple effects, whereby the impacts of a disaster are transmitted to regions and sectors that are not directly affected by the event. One important transmission channel is household migration. Changes in the spatial distribution of people are likely to have substantial impacts on local labour and housing markets. In this paper, we argue that IO and CGE models suffer from limitations in representing household migration under disaster risk. We suggest combining IO and CGE models with agent-based models to improve the representation of migration in disaster impact analysis.     

水资源问题的可计算一般均衡模型研究综述

简要介绍了可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,并综述了水资源问题CGE模型的几个研究方面:水资源价格、水资源优化配置、水市场和水权交易,以及可持续性和水患等其他问题。其研究小到一个县级流域,大到全球。水资源问题是社会经济系统的一个重要组成部分,其产生的影响会波及到社会经济系统中的其他部门,CGE模型适合于水资源问题研究。在综述的基础上总结了水资源问题CGE模型的基本研究思路。     

Spatial and temporal evolution of community resilience to natural hazards in the coastal areas of China

With the accelerating progress of industrialization, urbanization and population growth in recent decades, community resilience, the ability of communities to function effectively and recover successfully in the aftermath of disasters and shocks, has received great attentions. A number of studies had been conducted focusing on community resilience. This article applied community resilience framework to the coastal areas of China, which are the most densely populated and economically developed areas in China with the most frequent marine disasters. City-level social and economic data were used to construct a community resilience index (CRI). Using factor analysis and the global principal component analysis method, 55 city-level indexes were reduced into 15 factors that explain 73.99% of the variance. Getis–Ord G* Statistics were used to depict the high-value clusters and low-value clusters of the CRI. Clearly identified spatial and temporal variations of the CRI showed that both the overall level and regional differences of the CRI increased from 2003 to 2013; the overall spatial agglomeration characteristic of community resilience was not significant. Our findings also highlighted the key elements to improving community resilience: a robust and developed economic system; excellent education programs and training to improve consciousness on disaster prevention and mitigation; adequate investment on critical infrastructure, especially transportation and communication; proper environmental policies to protect ecosystems and water rouses; and extra attention and disaster risk budgets for vulnerable populations.     

Weather effects on recycled concrete used as a paving material for roads

Transportation is vital for the economic and social development and prosperity of every country. Weather phenomena can significantly affect transportation, having huge impacts on the economy and transport user safety. Research indicates that the road transportation system is the most vulnerable system to weather effects. Results from a nine-year period in Cyprus showed that extreme weather conditions resulted in a 5.8 % increase in fatalities on the roads. On the other hand, there is pressure to develop more environmentally sustainable materials to be used in roads, considering the availability of natural aggregate resources and the amount of waste concrete material arising from construction and demolition. This paper describes the use of recycled aggregate concrete (RAC) as a paving material in roads and its properties related to weather effects. Eight different concrete mixtures containing recycled concrete aggregates (RCA) were tested for the weather-related parameters of sorptivity, porosity and permeability. Results showed that the use of RCA and eventually RAC will affect the behaviour of road pavements, due to their higher sorptivity, porosity and permeability. However, it is believed that this will not be detrimental to the quality of road surfaces.     

Rockfall risk assessment to persons travelling in vehicles along a road: the case study of the Amalfi coastal road (southern Italy)

The paper deals with the assessment of rockfall risk to persons travelling in vehicles along the SS163 road, an important transportation corridor supporting a high vehicle traffic within the well-known tourist area of the Amalfi Coast (southern Italy). To this aim, the Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) and quantitative risk assessment (QRA) procedures, in this latter case for three rockfall risk scenarios, are applied. With reference to a large portion (33.820 out of a total of 50.365 km) of the SS163 road, the obtained QRA results highlight that, although the estimated individual risk to life satisfies the adopted tolerable risk criterion, the computed societal risk cannot be tolerated. Starting from this result, site-specific QRA analyses—carried out with reference to some road sections chosen on the basis of the RHRS results—allow the detection of the SS163 portions where the individual risk to life exceeds the tolerable risk threshold and, then, the recourse to mitigation measures could reveal necessary. In this regard, RHRS and QRA methods can be considered complementary tools in prioritizing the road sections where construction funds can be profitably spent in order to mitigate the rockfall risk with reference to both direct consequences (life loss) and indirect ones (traffic delay and diversions).     

Numerical simulation of the effect of heavy groundwater abstraction on groundwater–surface water interaction in Langat Basin, Selangor, Malaysia

The paper aims at evaluating the interaction between ground and surface water along the Langat River in Malaysia through the development of a numerical simulation. Malaysia has been experiencing a rapid economic growth since the last few decades, driven by many factors such as agriculture, industry, and the like. The demand for water in these sectors has increased so tremendously that surface water has been utilized in conjunction to groundwater. Approximately 18,184 m³ of water per day is obtained from the aquifer to supply to the steel factory. There are also workshops, petroleum stations, and houses in the area thus causing the water quantity and quality to degrade. In terms of quantity, the pumping activity has altered the interaction between the groundwater and surface water. Therefore, a numerical model was proposed and two aquifer layers were simulated, with the first layer being approximately >20 m in depth and the second layer >100 m. The recharge estimated from the tank model was input into the groundwater modeling. The effects of the surface water to the aquifer were included in the simulation by defining the river conductance, river bed, and river level. The calibrated model (error about 0.9 m) was achieved and applied to predict the flow pattern in its natural state without the pumping and with the pumping states. As a result, in the first scenario, the stream was in an effluent condition influenced by the groundwater from the northeast to the west. A hyporheic flow occurred and was observed from the contour map. The flow system was changed in the second scenario when the pumping activity was included in the simulation. The groundwater lost its original function but received leakage from the stream near the pumping sites. The findings of this study will help the local authorities and other researchers to understand the aquifer system in the area and assist in the preparation of a sustainable groundwater management.     

Combining field data with infrared thermography and DInSAR surveys to evaluate the activity of landslides: the case study of Randazzo Landslide (NE Sicily)

Infrared thermography and DInSAR surveying methodologies have been integrated and compared to study the state and distribution of activity of one of the largest landslides of northeastern Sicily, Italy, which is characterized by a slow retrogressive evolution. The Randazzo Landslide was triggered by heavy rainfalls in 1996 and its activity caused the disruption of a strategic transportation corridor, along with the formation of a landslide dam in the Alcantara Valley. After more than 20 years, the slope is still affected by instability and worrying signs of reactivations (e.g., deformation and cracking of road pavement) were surveyed in the field. The application of infrared thermography during the landslide survey allowed detecting peculiar features according to the different thermal pattern of the elements occurring along the slope. In particular, areas with different surface temperature were associated to vegetated spots, steep portions, bare sectors, and contact between different lithologies. Incipient portions and ancient landslide bodies were located, proving the utility of this experimental approach to the surveying of unstable slopes. Information on the entity, in terms of velocity, of the recent landslide displacements were provided by a DInSAR monitoring, which allowed ascertaining the presence of movements affecting several sectors of the landslide, mainly matching with the areas highlighted by thermal images. Achieved outcomes represent a scientifically relevant datum providing important information on the surveyed landslide from the risk management point of view and proving the utility of integrating infrared thermography and DInSAR methodologies for the study of complex movements.     

Analyzing regional economic impact and resilience: a case study on electricity outages caused by the 2008 snowstorms in southern China

When we think about the loss caused by natural disasters, we generally think about the direct economic loss. Although the direct economic loss is often obvious, the subsequent indirect economic loss can also be quite substantial. This research is a case study about the indirect economic impact of the Hunan electricity disruptions resulting from the 2008 snowstorms in southern China. Utilizing the computable general equilibrium model, this study shows that the indirect economic loss in Hunan Province resulting from electricity supply disruptions is estimated at USD 372 million over a 3-month recovery period. We also compare our results with other studies that use input–output models and discuss how the total regional economic resilience can mitigate economic losses through market substitutions and price changes.     

Flood hazard and risk assessment in Russia

The occurrence of rockfall incidents on the transportation network may cause injuries, and even casualties, as well as severe damage to infrastructure such as dwellings, railways, road corridors, etc. Passive protective measures (i.e., rockfall barriers, wire nets, etc.) are mainly deployed by operators of ground transport networks to minimize the impact of detrimental effects on these networks. In conjunction with these passive measures, active rockfall monitoring should ideally include the magnitude of each rockfall, its initial and final position, and the triggering mechanism that might have caused its detachment from the slope. In this work, the operational principle of a low-cost rockfall monitoring and alerting system is being presented. The system integrates measurements from a multi-channel seismograph and commercial cameras as the primary equipment for event detection. A series of algorithms analyze these measurements independently in order to reduce alarms originated by surrounding noise and sources other than rockfall events. The detection methodology employs two different sets of algorithms: Time–frequency analyses of the rockfall event’s seismic signature are performed using moving window pattern recognition algorithms, whereas image processing techniques are utilized to deliver object detection and localization. Training and validation of the proposed approach was performed through field tests that involved manually induced rockfall events and recording of sources (i.e., passing car, walking people) that may cause a false alarm. These validation tests revealed that the seismic monitoring algorithms produce a 4.17 % false alarm rate with an accuracy of 93 %. Finally, the results of a 34-day operational monitoring period are presented and the ability of the imaging system to identify and exclude false alarms is discussed. The entire processing cycle is 10–15 s. Thus, it can be considered as a near real-time system for early warning of rockfall events.     

Assessment of lightning-related damage and disruption in Canada

This article assesses the extent and costs of lightning-related damage and disruption in Canada. Lightning routinely damages property and disrupts economic and social activities. Affected sectors include health; property and casualty insurance; forestry; electricity generation, transmission, and distribution; agriculture; telecommunications; transportation; and tourism and recreation—the first four sectors are the most important in terms of contributing to overall impacts and costs. Secondary data and extrapolations from U.S. studies were used to develop cost estimates for the health, property, forestry, and electricity sectors. Aggregated, annual lightning-related damage and disruption costs in Canada range from CA$600 million to CA$600 million to CA1 billion. Forestry and electricity damages accounted for over 85% of the total. The estimates are both preliminary and conservative. In terms of continued research, additional or more refined studies using Canadian empirical data are warranted for the insurance and electricity sectors. Detailed insurance claim or outage data would permit analysis at the storm level and potentially discern finer-scaled risk patterns. Further effort is also required to evaluate risk or damage prevention measures, particularly those that relate to expanded or enriched use of the Canadian Lightning Detection Network data by both public and private sector clients. Both the degree of adoption and efficacy or cost-effectiveness should be investigated.     

Extreme weather impacts on freight railways in Europe

Four cases are studied in this assessment of how the harsh 2010 winter weather affected rail freight operations in Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Poland and also of the reactive behaviour rail managers mobilised to reduce the adverse outcomes. The results are utilised in a fifth case assessing the proportion of freight train delays in Finland during 2008–2010 by modelling the odds for freight train delays as a function of changes in met-states on the Finnish network and weather-induced infrastructure damage. The results show that rail operators were totally unprepared to deal with the powerful and cascading effects of three harsh weather elements—long spells of low temperatures, heavy snowfalls and strong winds—which affected them concurrently and shut down large swathes of European rail infrastructure and train operations. Rail traffic disruptions spread to downstream and upstream segments of logistics channels, causing shippers and logistics operators to move freight away from rail to road transfer. As a result, railways lost market share for high-value container cargo, revenues and long-term business prospects for international freight movement. Analyses of measures employed to mitigate the immediate damage show that managers improvised their ways of handling crises rather than drew on a priori contingency, i.e. fight-back programmes and crisis management skills. Modelling the co-variation between extreme weather and freight train delays in Finland during 2008–2010 revealed that 60 % of late arrivals were related to winter weather. Furthermore, the combined effect of temperatures below ?7 °C and 10–20 cm changes in snow depth coverage from 1 month to the next explained 62 % of the variation in log odds for freight train delays. Also, it has been shown that changes in the number of days with 10–20 cm snow depth coverage explained 66 % of the variation in late train arrivals, contributing to 626 min or 10.5 additional hours’ delay. Changes in the number of days with snowfalls over 5 mm accounted for 77 % variation in late train arrivals, implying that each additional day with this snowfall could contribute to 19.5 h’ delay. Finally, the combination of increased mean number of days with 5 mm snowfall and temperature below ?20 °C explained 79 % of the variation in late arrivals, contributing to 193 min or 3.25 h’ delay. All results were significant (p = 0.00).     

Short-term economic effect of the M7.0 Lushan Earthquake

To estimate the short-term economic effect of the 2013 M7.0 Lushan Earthquake, the constant mean return model and the market model of event study are adopted. On the levels of the whole stock market, some typical sectors, regional stocks, and the stock in the affected area, effects are measured. Three indices are adopted to measure the whole market. Nine indices are selected to observe the abnormal returns of the sectors, involving Energy, Materials, Industries, Consumer, Health care, Finance, Information technology, Telecommunication service, and Utilities. In Sichuan Province, there are 82 registered stocks with enough trading data, whose abnormal returns are calculated to test the short-term effect on the regional economy. And in the affected area, only one stock is registered. The result indicates that abnormal returns from the whole market, nine sectors, and the region are not significant at the level of 0.01 in the following 10 days.     

Regional indirect economic impact evaluation of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

Disaster loss estimates are helpful for managing post-disaster reconstruction and for designing disaster-risk mitigation strategies. However, most of these estimates in China merely consider direct losses, and only a few include indirect economic losses. As the most destructive earthquake since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the Wenchuan Earthquake that occurred in 2008 resulted in direct economic damages reached Chinese Yuan (CNY) 845 billion (US $124 billion). The aim of the study was to estimate indirect economic losses caused by the Wenchuan Earthquake in Sichuan Province through the Adaptive Regional Input–Output (ARIO) model, which can reflect disaster-related changes in production capacity, ripple effects within the economic system, and adaptive behaviors of economic actors. The results showed that indirect economic losses in the production and housing sectors were estimated at 40% of the direct economic losses, i.e., approximately CNY 300 billion; moreover, the model predicted an 8-year reconstruction period. Several factors contributed to these losses, including significant damages to key sectors, financial constraints on reconstruction, post-earthquake investment instability, and limits in reconstruction capacity. Active government support policies post-earthquake are a useful strategy to mitigate the adverse economic impact of an earthquake in developing countries.     

基于模糊综合评判的公路岩质边坡稳定性分级研究

公路岩质边坡具有点多线长、规模小的特点,缺乏详细的岩体力学参数,现有岩体分级系统难以应用。根据公路岩质边坡的特点,考虑建模过程的系统全面性、简明科学性、相对独立性及灵活可操作性,选取合理的边坡稳定性评价指标,建立了边坡稳定性的两层综合评价体系,运用层次分析法确定了评价指标的权重矩阵,采用模糊综合评判方法建立了公路岩质边坡的稳定性分级模型。运用该模型对湖南省常德－吉首高速公路路段内142个岩质边坡稳定性进行了模糊综合评判分级,结果表明,该方法是合理实用的,可供同类工程借鉴。     

Projected impacts of land use and road network changes on increasing flood hazards using a 4D GIS: A case study in Makkah metropolitan area,Saudi Arabia

Makkah City, west of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is considered the third main highly populated metropolitan area in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It exhibits two unique features that increase the hazardous flood consequences: (1) its topography is very complex and (2) about three million Muslims are gathered annually in Makkah to perform Hajj over a 2-week period. Floods are natural returning hydrological phenomena that have been affecting human lives. The objectives of the current study are: (1) identification of land use types and road networks in Makkah, (2) hydrological modeling of flood characteristics in Makkah based on precise up-to-date databases, (3) examination of the relationship between land use, land cover changes, transportation network expansion, and the floods' prosperities and hazards, and (4) development of digital hydrological maps for present and near future flood hazards in Makkah. The attained results show that the mean runoff depth and the total flood volume are significantly increased from 2010 to 2030. Additionally, it has been found that a great part of the road network in Makkah City is subjected to high dangerous flood impacts. The overall length of flood danger-factor roads is increased from 481 km (with almost 37 %) to 1,398 km (with 74 % approximately) between 2010 and 2030. Thus, it is concluded that urbanization has a direct strong relationship with flood hazards. Consequently, it is recommended that the attained results should be taken into account by decision makers in implementing new development planning of the Makkah metropolitan area.     

Lessons Learned from the Landslides in Shengli East Open-Pit Mine and North Open-Pit Mine in Xilinhot City,Inner Mongolia Province,China

The locations of the 2013 eastern ShengLi open pit mine landslide and the 2010 northern ShengLi open pit mine landslide were both in the XilinHot city of Inner Mongolia province, in areas with similar geographical, regional geological, geomorphic conditions and excavation depth. There are so many similar characteristics, such as landslides triggered by the rain storms, landslides occurred many times, landslides with long time deformation, but there are also some differences between the two landslides, such as the scale and failure mode. Field investigations showed that the two landslides were both occurred several days after the rain storms, the eastern ShengLi open pit mine landslide body with the volume of 85 million m³ has been in persistent deformation with an observed maximum horizontal displacement of 58 m in August 2013, Furthermore the implemented check dams at east open pit mine had not formed an efficacious blocking system to resist the flow because of incorrect judgment regarding the landslide style. The northern ShengLi open pit mine landslide body with 0.5–1 million m³ occurred several times after each rain storm. In the whole, the time of persistent deformation about the eastern ShengLi open pit mine was much longer than that of the northern ShengLi open pit mine because of the difference of the filling material of fault and space combination between the faults and the slope. Field investigation, physical model experiments, real-time displacement monitoring and numerical simulation were implemented to investigate the characteristics, mechanism, and retaining measures of the two landslides. The insights gleaned herein may be valuable for the understanding of the mechanisms of landslides and improving preventative measures against these types of events in north China in the future.     

An environmental assessment of forest stands damages caused by excavators during road construction in Beech forests

Construction of forest roads can cause short-term and long-term negative effects on forest ecosystems in different ways if they are not well planned and appropriately maintained. In this research, environmental damages caused by an excavator during road construction were examined in steep terrain covered by beech (Fagus orientalis L.) stands. The study was conducted along a 1.5 km road in western Blacksea Region of Turkey. All of the road construction operations were monitored during a construction period, and measurements of cross sections sizes and stand damages were measured during and after the construction activities. The road construction was evaluated according to the appropriate method and standards. The average widths of roadway, fill slope and construction zone were 4.82, 6.91, and 16.61 m, respectively. Along the 1,500 m road, forested area impacted was 24,915 m² while the number of trees cut was 1,495 and rate of the damaged trees below the fill slope was found to be 24.7 %. In the study, based on the appropriate method and standards, less forested area might have been impacted (23 %). As a result of regression analysis, it was found that the rate of damaged trees increased as the values of the proportion of rocks, the width of the road surface and the width of the cut-slope increased. To reduce the negative effects of forest road construction on the environment, new forest road construction by excavators should be performed using appropriate methods within mountainous terrains.     

Assessment of potential sediment disasters and resilience management of mountain roads using environmental indicators

In recent years, extreme rainfall events occur frequently, causing serious watershed sediment disasters, destroying mountain roads, and endangering the safety of residents' lives and property. This study aims to deal with the spatial change of potential sediment movement on the road slope pre-disaster and to screen disaster hot spots for early warning and control system. The conceptual model is used to simulate the distribution of primary and/or derived disasters on a watershed scale to assess the impact of sediment disasters caused by heavy rain event. Correlation analysis shows that the models in assessment of primary disaster and derived disaster are significantly correlated with the collapse ratio and disaster ratio, respectively. Since the primary disaster has been considered when calculating the derived disaster risk, the terrain subdivision along Provincial Highway 21 (Tai-21) is extracted to understand the derived sediment disaster on the road slope. The model can effectively evaluate the road sections prone to disasters. According to the risk level, the hot spot of road slope disasters and the management of disaster resilience are determined and can be the reference for disaster prevention and control.

     

湖南省农业生态水资源库脆弱性评价

以湖南农业生态水资源库为研究对象,分析了其脆弱性成因和主要表现.从脆弱性成因角度构建了包含10个具体指标的湖南生态水资源库脆弱性评价指标体系,运用模糊物元评价模型对85个县级评价单元的农业生态水资源库脆弱度进行综合评判.结果表明:全省农业生态水资源库脆弱性等级以中等脆弱为主,其中,微脆弱等级11个,占总评价单元的12.9%;中等脆弱等级74个,占总评价单元的87.1%.脆弱度空间分布存在"西部大于东部,南部大于北部"的总体分布态势.其中,以湘西北、湘西南和湘南所构成的外部环形地带和以长沙、衡邵盆地为中心的中东部地带为全省两个比较明显的高脆弱区(带).     

An epidemiological approach to determining the risk of road damage due to landslides

Disruption of segments of roads can have a significant impact on the vulnerability of the entire network. Natural disasters are frequent causes of disruptions of this kind. This article focuses on determining the risk of road disruptions due to landslides. Our approach is based on methodology widely used in the field of epidemiology. We had available data on the location of the landslides, the road network and a list of the disrupted road segments. With the use of a 2 × 2 table, we determined the relationship between landslide data and road segment disruptions and derived the risk coefficient based on the number of landslides in the vicinity of the road and its length. The result is a disruption risk map with risk coefficients ranging from 0 to 47.94. In order to distinguish the most risky segments, we calculated a threshold of 12.40 with the use of a risk breakdown in a group of segments without damage. Nineteen percentage (402 km) of the road network in the Zlín region (Czech Republic), where the methodology was applied, is located beyond this threshold. The benefits of this approach stem from its speed and potential to define the most risky areas on which a detailed geomorphologic analysis can be focused.