Recent trends in Australian region tropical cyclone activity

Summary The number of tropical cyclones observed in the Australian region (south of equator; 105–160° E) has apparently declined since the start of reliable (satellite) observations in the 1969/70 season. However, the number of more intense cyclones (with minimum pressures dropping to 970 hPa or lower) has increased slightly. The numbers of weak (minimum pressures not dropping below 990 hPa) and moderate systems (minimum pressures between 970 and 990 hPa) have declined. Possible reasons for these different trends are discussed. The decline in the number of weaker cyclones may at least partly reflect improved understanding of the nature of some weak systems. The decline in the number of cyclones more intense than 990 hPa primarily reflects the downward trend in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Previous work has demonstrated that the number of tropical cyclones observed in the Australian region each cyclone season is related to the value of the SOI prior to the start of the cyclone season. This relationship is clearest with the number of moderate cyclones. The SOI is only weakly related to the number of intense or weak cyclones. The increase in the number of intense cyclones is not attributable to the trend in the SOI. Nor is there clear reason, at present, to suspect that it is artificial (i.e., due to changes in observing or analysis techniques).With 7 Figures     

Wintertime climatic trends in the western Himalayas

Northern Indian rivers are primarily fed by wintertime (December, January, February—DJF) precipitation, in the form of snow—yielded by eastward moving synoptic weather systems called Western Disturbances (WDs), over the western Himalayas (WH). This accumulated snow melts during ablation period. In the context of today’s warming atmosphere, it is imperative to study the changes in the temperature and precipitation patterns over the WH to assess the impact of global warming on climatic conditions of the region. Keeping that in mind, observational analysis of temperature and precipitation fields is planned. In the present study various climatic indices are analyzed based on wintertime (DJF) data of 30?years (1975–2006) obtained from the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE), India. Results indicate enhancement in the surface air temperature across the WH. Percent number of warm (cold) days have increased (decreased) during 1975–2006 over the WH. Further analysis of precipitation reveals slightly decreasing but inconsistent trends.     

Remotely forced variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean

An ensemble of eight hindcasts has been conducted using an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model fully coupled only within the Atlantic basin, with prescribed observational sea surface temperature (SST) for 1950–1998 in the global ocean outside the Atlantic basin. The purpose of these experiments is to understand the influence of the external SST anomalies on the interannual variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Statistical methods, including empirical orthogonal function analysis with maximized signal-to-noise ratio, have been used to extract the remotely forced Atlantic signals from the ensemble of simulations. It is found that the leading external source on the interannual time scales is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean. The ENSO signal in the tropical Atlantic shows a distinct progression from season to season. During the boreal winter of a maturing El Niño event, the model shows a major warm center in the southern subtropical Atlantic together with warm anomalies in the northern subtropical Atlantic. The southern subtropical SST anomalies is caused by a weakening of the southeast trade winds, which are partly associated with the influence of an atmospheric wave train generated in the western Pacific Ocean and propagating into the Atlantic basin in the Southern Hemisphere during boreal fall. In the boreal spring, the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean is warmed up by a weakening of the northeast trade winds, which is also associated with a wave train generated in the central tropical Pacific during the winter season of an El Niño event. Apart from the atmospheric planetary waves, these SST anomalies are also related to the sea level pressure (SLP) increase in the eastern tropical Atlantic due to the global adjustment to the maturing El Niño in the tropical Pacific. The tropical SLP anomalies are further enhanced in boreal spring, which induce anomalous easterlies on and to the south of the equator and lead to a dynamical oceanic response that causes cold SST anomalies in the eastern and equatorial Atlantic from boreal spring to summer. Most of these SST anomalies persist into the boreal fall season.

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Possible climatic impacts of tropical deforestation

Large-scale conversion of tropical forests into pastures or annual crops will likely lead to changes in the local microclimate of those regions. Larger diurnal fluctuations of surface temperature and humidity deficit, increased surface runoff during rainy periods and decreased runoff during the dry season, and decreased soil moistrue are to be expected.It is likely that evapotranspiration will be reduced because of less available radiative energy at the canopy level since grass presents a higher albedo than forests, also because of the reduced availability of soil moisture at the rooting zone primarily during the dry season. Recent results from general circulation model (GCM) simulations of Amazonian deforestation seem to suggest that the equilibrium climate for a grassy vegetation in Amazonia would be one in which regional precipitation would be significantly reduced.Global climate changes probably will occur if there is a marked change in rainfall patterns in tropical forest regions as a result of deforestation. Besides that, biomass burning of tropical forests is likely adding CO₂ into the atmosphere, thus contributing to the enhanced greenhouse warming.     

Recent and future sea surface temperature trends in tropical pacific warm pool and cold tongue regions

Using coral data, sea surface temperature (SST) reanalysis data, and Climate Model Intercomparison Project III (CMIP3) data, we analyze 20th-century and future warm pool and cold tongue SST trends. For the last 100?years, a broad La Nina-like SST trend, in which the warming trend of the warm pool SST is greater than that of the cold tongue SST, has appeared in reanalysis SST data sets, 20C scenario experiments of the CMIP3 data and less significantly in coral records. However, most Coupled General Circulation Models subjected to scenarios of future high greenhouse gas concentrations produce larger SST warming trends in cold tongues than in warm pools, resembling El Nino-like SST patterns. In other words, warmer tropical climate conditions correspond to stronger El Nino-like response. Heat budget analyses further verify that warmer tropical climates diminish the role of the ocean’s dynamic thermostat, which currently regulates cold tongue temperatures. Therefore, the thermodynamic thermostat, whose efficiency depends on the mean temperature, becomes the main regulator (particularly via evaporative cooling) of both warm pool and cold tongue temperatures in future warm climate conditions. Thus, the warming tendency of the cold tongue SST may lead that of the warm pool SST in near future.     

The Equatorial Undercurrent in the central Atlantic and its relation to tropical Atlantic variability

Seasonal to interannual variations of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) in the central Atlantic at 23°W are studied using shipboard observation taken during the period 1999–2011 as well as moored velocity time series covering the period May 2005–June 2011. The seasonal variations are dominated by an annual harmonic of the EUC transport and the EUC core depth (both at maximum during September), and a semiannual harmonic of the EUC core velocity (maximum during April and September). Substantial interannual variability during the period of moored observation included anomalous cold/warm equatorial Atlantic cold tongue events during 2005/2008. The easterly winds in the western equatorial Atlantic during boreal spring that represent the preconditioning of cold/warm events were strong/weak during 2005/2008 and associated with strong/weak boreal summer EUC transport. The anomalous year 2009 was instead associated with weak preconditioning and smallest EUC transport on record from January to July, but during August coldest SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Atlantic were observed. The interannual variations of the EUC are discussed with respect to recently described variability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean.     

The role of wave energy accumulation in tropical cyclogenesis over the tropical North Atlantic

A hierarchical modeling approach is used to study the process by which interactions of easterly waves with the background flow can result in a reduction in the longitudinal and vertical scale of the waves. Theory suggests that in flows that possess a negative longitudinal gradient (U _x  < 0) there is a reduction of longitudinal and vertical group speeds and an increase in regional wave action density (or “wave energy”). Relative vorticity increases locally leading to an increase in the likelihood of tropical cyclogenesis near the wave axis. Opposite impacts on the structure of the waves is expected in a U _x  > 0 domain. In the simplified framework of a free-surface and divergent shallow water model, Rossby wave properties are tracked through a range of background flow scenarios to determine the important scales of interaction. The importance of wave energy accumulation for tropical cyclogenesis is then studied in a full physics and dynamics model using a nested regional climate model simulation, at 12 km horizontal grid spacing, over the tropical North Atlantic region for the entire 2005 hurricane season. The dynamical environment within which 70% of easterly waves formed tropical cyclones exhibits coherent regions in which easterly winds increase towards the east, consistent with the occurrence of wave energy accumulation.     

Water vapour transport from the tropical Atlantic and summer rainfall in tropical southern Africa

An empirical orthogonal functions analysis of the onshore flow of moisture along the west coast of southern Africa using NCEP-DOE AMIP II Re-analyses suggests two dominant modes of variability that are linked to (a) variations in the circulation linked with the South Atlantic anticyclone (b) the intensity of the flow that penetrates from the tropical Atlantic. The second mode, referred as the Equatorial Westerly mode, contributes the most to moisture input from the Atlantic onto the subcontinent at tropical latitudes. Substantial correlations in austral summer between the Atlantic moisture flux in the tropics and rainfall over the upper lands surrounding the Congo basin suggest the potential role played by this zonal mode of water vapour transport. Composites for austral summer months when this Equatorial Westerly mode had a particularly strong expression, show an enhanced moisture input at tropical latitudes that feeds into the deep convection occurring over the Congo basin. Sustained meridional energy fluxes result in above normal rainfall east and south of the Congo belt. During years of reduced equatorial westerly moisture flux, a deficit of available humidity occurs in the southern tropics. A concomitant eastward shift of deep convection to the southwest Indian ocean and southeastern Africa, leads to below normal rainfall over the uplands surrounding the Congo basin.     

Parametric versus non-parametric estimates of climatic trends

Summary Two methods of estimation of the trend magnitude are compared: the parametric one (least-squares regression) with the non-parametric one (median of pairwise slopes). The comparison is carried out for seasonal and annual trends of ten climatic variables at a network of stations in the Czech Republic. We show that the difference between the two trend estimates is very small, falling well within the 95% confidence limits of the parametric estimate. The magnitude of the difference does not depend on the degree of normality of the distributions, with the exception of two variables, maximum temperature and precipitation, for which a slight dependence is observed. As a by-product, the normality of seasonal and annual means of the climatic variables is evaluated by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov one-sample test.     

Weakened SST variability in the tropical Atlantic Ocean since 2000

A prominent weakening in equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability, occurring around the year 2000, is investigated by means of observations, reanalysis products and the linear recharge oscillator (ReOsc) model. Compared to the time period 1982–1999, during 2000–2017 the May–June–July SST variability in the eastern equatorial Atlantic has decreased by more than 30%. Coupled air–sea feedbacks, namely the positive Bjerknes feedback and the negative net heat flux damping are important drivers for the equatorial Atlantic interannual SST variability. We find that the Bjerknes feedback weakened after 2000 while the net heat flux damping increased. The weakening of the Bjerknes feedback does not appear to be fully explainable by changes in the mean state of the tropical Atlantic. The increased net heat flux damping is related to an enhanced response of the latent heat flux to the SST anomalies (SSTa). Strengthened trade winds as well as warmer SSTs are suggested to increase the air–sea specific humidity difference and hence, enhancing the latent heat flux response to SSTa. A combined effect of those two processes is proposed to be responsible for the weakened SST variability in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. The ReOsc model supports the link between reduced SST variability, weaker Bjerknes feedback and stronger net heat flux damping.     

On the evaluation of temperature trends in the tropical troposphere

A series of model experiments with the coupled Max-Planck-Institute ECHAM5/OM climate model have been investigated and compared with microwave measurements from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and re-analysis data for the period 1979?C2008. The evaluation is carried out by computing the Temperature in the Lower Troposphere (TLT) and Temperature in the Middle Troposphere (TMT) using the MSU weights from both University of Alabama (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) and restricting the study to primarily the tropical oceans. When forced by analysed sea surface temperature the model reproduces accurately the time-evolution of the mean outgoing tropospheric microwave radiation especially over tropical oceans but with a minor bias towards higher temperatures in the upper troposphere. The latest reanalyses data from the 25?year Japanese re-analysis (JRA25) and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis are in very close agreement with the time-evolution of the MSU data with a correlation of 0.98 and 0.96, respectively. The re-analysis trends are similar to the trends obtained from UAH but smaller than the trends from RSS. Comparison of TLT, computed from observations from UAH and RSS, with Sea Surface Temperature indicates that RSS has a warm bias after 1993. In order to identify the significance of the tropospheric linear temperature trends we determined the natural variability of 30-year trends from a 500?year control integration of the coupled ECHAM5 model. The model exhibits natural unforced variations of the 30?year tropospheric trend that vary within ±0.2?K/decade for the tropical oceans. This general result is supported by similar results from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled climate model. Present MSU observations from UAH for the period 1979?C2008 are well within this range but RSS is close to the upper positive limit of this variability. We have also compared the trend of the vertical lapse rate over the tropical oceans assuming that the difference between TLT and TMT is an approximate measure of the lapse rate. The TLT?CTMT trend is larger in both the measurements and in the JRA25 than in the model runs by 0.04?C0.06?K/decade. Furthermore, a calculation of all 30?year TLT?CTMT trends of the unforced 500-year integration vary between ±0.03?K/decade suggesting that the models have a minor systematic warm bias in the upper troposphere.     

Study on climatic characteristics of China-influencing tropical cyclones

Analysis of the climatic characteristics of the tropical cyclones that affect China yields several interesting features. The frequency of these tropical cyclones tended to decrease from 1951 to 2005, with the lowest frequency in the past ten years. The decrease in the frequency of super typhoons is particularly significant. The main season of tropical cyclone activities is from May to November, with an active period from July to September. There are three obvious sources of these tropical cyclones and they vary with seasons and decades. Their movement has also changed with seasons. On average, these tropical cyclones affect China for 5.6 months annually and the period of influence decreases in the past decades. An analysis of daily data indicates that the days of typhoon influence are shorter in winter and spring and longer in summer. The frequency of tropical cyclones is the largest over southeastern China, decreasing northwestward. Taiwan is the region that is affected by tropical cyclones most frequently. The average annual precipitation associated with tropical cyclones has also decreased gradually northwestward from southeastern China.     

Oceanic origin of southeast tropical Atlantic biases

Most coupled general circulation models suffer from a prominent warm sea surface temperature bias in the southeast tropical Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Africa. The origin of the bias is not understood and remains highly controversial. Previous studies suggest that the origin of the bias stems from systematic errors of atmospheric models in simulating surface heat flux and coastal wind, or poorly simulated coastal upwelling. In this study, we show, using different reanalysis and observational data sets combined with a set of eddy-resolving regional ocean model simulations, that systematic errors in ocean models also make a significant contribution to the bias problem. In particular (1) the strong warm bias at the Angola-Benguela front that is maintained by the local wind and the convergence of Angola and Benguela Currents is caused by an overshooting of the Angola Current in ocean models and (2) the alongshore warm bias to the south of the front is caused by ocean model deficiencies in simulating the sharp thermocline along the Angola coast, which is linked to biases in the equatorial thermocline, and the complex circulation system within the Benguela upwelling zone.     

Projected future changes in tropical cyclone-related wave climate in the North Atlantic

Tropical cyclones are a major hazard for numerous countries surrounding the tropical-to-subtropical North Atlantic sub-basin including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Their intense winds, which can exceed 300 km h⁻¹, can cause serious damage, particularly along coastlines where the combined action of waves, currents and low atmospheric pressure leads to storm surge and coastal flooding. This work presents future projections of North Atlantic tropical cyclone-related wave climate. A new configuration of the ARPEGE-Climat global atmospheric model on a stretched grid reaching ~ 14 km resolution to the north-east of the eastern Caribbean is able to reproduce the distribution of tropical cyclone winds, including Category 5 hurricanes. Historical (1984–2013, 5 members) and future (2051–2080, 5 members) simulations with the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario are used to drive the MFWAM (Météo-France Wave Action Model) spectral wave model over the Atlantic basin during the hurricane season. An intermediate 50-km resolution grid is used to propagate mid-latitude swells into a higher 10-km resolution grid over the tropical cyclone main development region. Wave model performance is evaluated over the historical period with the ERA5 reanalysis and satellite altimetry data. Future projections exhibit a modest but widespread reduction in seasonal mean wave heights in response to weakening subtropical anticyclone, yet marked increases in tropical cyclone-related wind sea and extreme wave heights within a large region extending from the African coasts to the North American continent.

     

Comparison of climatic trends and variability among glacierized environments in the Western Himalayas

The climate and hydrology of the Western Himalayas is complex and a function of snow and glacier melt, land use, topography, and Indian summer and winter monsoon dynamics. Improving our knowledge about these processes is important from societal and agricultural points of view. In this study, an observational analysis is carried out to assess the changing climatic trends and the associated interannual variability in winter temperature and precipitation at three glacierized regions of Western Himalayas having distinctly different sub-regional characteristics. In situ observations of 23 years (1985–2007) are used. These observations are passed through rigorous statistical quality control checks. Results show higher interannual variability with increasing temperature trends in the glacierized regions of the Siachen (Karakoram Range) and Chotasigri (Great Himalayan Range). Karakoram Range has higher warming trends than the Great Himalayan Range. In case of precipitation, an overall decrease in precipitation is observed with contrasting trends in the last decade. Nino3.4 index is positively correlated with winter precipitation with similar interannual variability. In addition, at Siachen temperature and precipitation show strong negative correlation, and precipitation to spell length correlation is opposite at Siachen and Chotasigri.     

On climatic fluctuations and climate trends of modern Moscow

Considered are the results of the investigation of climatic fluctuations, supercentury climate trend, and 30-year trends in modern Moscow based on the time series of monthly mean values of air temperature for 1879?C2010. The data of air temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere for the same period were used for the comparison. The computation of characteristics was carried out using the method of singular spectral analysis.     

Prevailing trends of climatic extremes across Indus-Delta of Sindh-Pakistan

This study examines the variability and change in the patterns of climatic extremes experienced in Indus-Delta of Sindh province of Pakistan, comprising regions of Karachi, Badin, Mohenjodaro, and Rohri. The homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation data for a 36-year period were used to calculate 13 and 11 indices of temperature and precipitation extremes with the help of RClimDex, a program written in the statistical software package R. A non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates were used to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the calculated trend. Temperatures of summer days and tropical nights increased in the region with overall significant warming trends for monthly maximum temperature as well as for warm days and nights reflecting dry conditions in the study area. The warm extremes and nighttime temperature indices showed greater trends than cold extremes and daytime indices depicting an overall warming trends in the Delta. Historic decrease in the acreage of major crops and over 33% decrease in agriculture credit for Sindh are the indicators of adverse impacts of warmer and drier weather on Sindh agriculture. Trends reported for Karachi and Badin are expected to decrease rice cultivation, hatching of fisheries, and mangroves forest surrounding these cities. Increase in the prevailing temperature trends will lead to increasingly hotter and drier summers resulting to constraints on cotton, wheat, and rice yield in Rohri and Mohenjodaro areas due to increased crop water requirements that may be met with additional groundwater pumping; nonetheless, the depleted groundwater resources would have a direct impact on the region’s economy.