Predictive uncertainty of peak outflow relations for landslides dam breach

Risk assessment development considering the failure of landslide dams often requires the estimation of peak outflow through the breach. The empirical equations based on data from case studies tend to be the first direct approach. This paper conducted an uncertainty analysis when these empirical relations were utilized to predict the peak outflow of a breached landslide dam. The results suggest that the relations derived from manmade dams or embankments typically overestimate the peak outflow about 1/5 to 3/4 of an order of magnitude; and the relations derived from the database of landslide dams have much smaller mean prediction errors and also exhibit broad uncertainty bands. Application of the uncertainly analysis was illustrated by the Tangjiashan landslide dammed lake, formed during 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In addition, the predicted results from Eq. 1 deduced herein were considered to be the reliable estimate of peak outflow through the breach of landslide dam.     

The 12 May Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslide lakes: distribution and preliminary risk evaluation

The Wenchuan earthquake, measured at M _s 8.0 according to the China Earthquake Administration, occurred at 14:28 on 12 May 2008 in the Sichuan Province of China. It brought overwhelming destruction to eight provinces and cities. Landslides and rock avalanches triggered by the earthquake produced 257 landslide lakes which were distributed along the fault rupture zone and river channels. The authors traveled to the disaster zone immediately after the earthquake to examine some of the features of the debris dams and performed a quick evaluation of the potential for outburst of earthquake-induced landslide lakes for the purpose of disaster relief. The preliminary analysis indicated that the landslide lakes could be classified as those exhibiting extremely high risk, medium risk, and low risk according to field observations and remote sensing, to determine material composition, dam structure, dam height, maximum water storage capacity, and size of the population potentially affected area. The failure risk of 21 debris dams were evaluated as follows: one dam with an extremely high danger risk, seven dams with a high danger, five dams with a medium danger, and eight dams of low danger. More concern was given to the Tangjiashan Lake and different scenarios for the potential sudden failure of its dam were assessed. The risk evaluation result was accepted in full, by the earthquake disaster relief office. A successful emergency dam treatment for risk reduction was planned, based on our assessments, and these measures were quickly carried out. According to this research, the earthquake destabilized the surrounding mountains, resulting in a prolonged geohazard for the area. Landslides and debris flows will continue to develop for at least 5 to 10 years after the Wenchuan earthquake and will produce additional dammed lakes. Recommendations and plans for earthquake–landslide lake mitigation were proposed, based on past successful practices.     

Dam-break risk analysis of the Attabad landslide dam in Pakistan and emergency countermeasures

The Attabad landslide dam caused significant property losses and many human casualties in Pakistan, and also greatly affected the operation of the China-Pakistan Karakoram Highway (KKH). This paper discusses the risk of dam breach and hazards to the KKH project construction site following a dam breach. The paper examines the following three topics. (1) The geomorphologic dimensionless blockage index (DBI) and the analogy method were used to analyze the stability of the Attabad landslide dam. The long-term behaviors of landslide dams downstream of the Attabad landslide dam indicate that the risk of a dam breach exists, but the probability of a total dam failure is low. (2) The peak discharge of a potential breach of the Attabad landslide dam was calculated for scenarios in which 1/4, 1/3, 1/2, and total failure of the dam was breached. The potential breach discharge decreases with the downstream distance. (3) The potential impacts of the landslide dam breach on the KKH project construction site were analyzed. Based on the composition of the landslide dam, the probability of a 1/3 dam breach is high. To ensure the safety of downstream areas, disaster preparedness plans that correspond to the 1/2 dam breach scenario should be developed. Based on experience in addressing the landslide dam that was caused by the Wenchuan Earthquake, artificial controlled drainage measures are suggested and provide a technical reference for addressing the Attabad landslide dam and achieving recovery and normal operation of KKH.     

Landslide and debris flow initiated characteristics after typhoon Morakot in Taiwan

Typhoon Morakot brought extreme rainfall and initiated numerous landslides and debris flows in southern Taiwan in August of 2009. The purpose of this study is to identify the extreme rainfall-induced landslide frequency-area distribution in the Laonong River Basin in southern Taiwan and debris flow-initiated conditions under rainfall. Results of the analysis show that debris flows were initiated under high cumulative rainfall and long rainfall duration or high rainfall intensity. The relationship of mean rainfall intensity and duration threshold could reflect debris flow initiation characteristics under high rainfall intensity in short rainfall duration conditions. The relationship of cumulative rainfall and duration threshold could reflect debris flow initiation characteristics under high cumulative rainfall in long rainfall duration. Defining rainfall events by estimating rainfall parameters with different methodologies could reveal variations among intermittent rainfall events for the benefit of issuing debris flow warnings. The exponent of landslide frequency-area distribution induced by Typhoon Morakot is lower than that induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake. The lower exponent of landslide frequency-area distribution can be attributed to the transportation and deposition areas of debris flow that are included in the landslide area. Climate change induced high rainfall intensity and long duration of precipitation, for example, Typhoon Morakot brought increased frequency of debris flow and created difficulty in issuing warnings from rainfall monitoring.     

Landslide dam formation susceptibility analysis based on geomorphic features

Global climate change has increased the frequency of abnormally high rainfall; such high rainfall events in recent years have occurred in the mountainous areas of Taiwan. This study identifies historical earthquake- and typhoon-induced landslide dam formations in Taiwan along with the geomorphic characteristics of the landslides. Two separate groups of landslides are examined which are classified as those that were dammed by river water and those that were not. Our methodology applies spatial analysis using geographic information system (GIS) and models the geomorphic features with 20?×?20 m digital terrain mapping. The Spot 6 satellite images after Typhoon Morakot were used for an interpretation of the landslide areas. The multivariate statistical analysis is also used to find which major factors contribute to the formation of a landslide dam. The objective is to identify the possible locations of landslide dams by the geomorphic features of landslide-prone slopes. The selected nine geomorphic features include landslide area, slope, aspect, length, width, elevation change, runout distance, average landslide elevation, and river width. Our four geomorphic indexes include stream power, form factor, topographic wetness, and elevation–relief ratio. The features of the 28 river-damming landslides and of the 59 non-damming landslides are used for multivariate statistical analysis by Fisher discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis. The principal component analysis screened out eleven major geomorphic features for landslide area, slope, aspect, elevation change, length, width, runout distance, average elevation, form factor, river width, stream power, and topography wetness. Results show that the correctness by Fisher discriminant analysis was 68.0 % and was 70.8 % by logistic regression analysis. This study suggests that using logistic regression analysis as the assessment model for identifying the potential location of a landslide dam is beneficial. Landslide threshold equations applying the geomorphic features of slope angle, angle of landslide elevation change, and river width (H _L/W _R) to identify the potential formation of natural dams are proposed for analysis. Disaster prevention and mitigation measures are enhanced when the locations of potential landslide dams are identified; further, in order to benefit such measures, dam volume estimates responsible for breaches are key.     

滑坡堰塞湖溃决风险与过程研究进展

滑坡堰塞湖是山区常见的一种自然灾害,对其溃决风险与过程的科学认知和合理评估是应急处置的关键。外荷载作用下滑坡堰塞体的力学响应、滑坡堰塞湖渐进破坏机理与溃决洪水预测理论是滑坡堰塞湖风险评估研究领域的关键科学问题。本文围绕滑坡堰塞湖形成后的溃决风险与过程展开综述,从定性和定量的角度分别对堰塞湖危险性评价方法进行分析总结,从小尺度、大尺度和超重力场试验技术的角度总结了堰塞湖的溃决机理、溃决过程及其影响因素,从数学方法的角度对堰塞湖溃决洪水预测中经验公式法、简化和精细化数值模拟方法的进展进行总结评价。然而,国内外关于滑坡堰塞湖风险评估领域的研究仍处于起步阶段,空-天-地一体化监测技术、堰塞湖危险性评价中的不确定性问题、堰塞体材料冲蚀特性与溃决机理、堰塞湖溃决洪水精细化模拟等将是未来的重点研究方向。本综述可为堰塞湖防灾减灾和流域水工程风险管理提供有价值的参考。     

天然土石坝稳定性初步研究

滑坡堵塞江河形成的天然土石坝是自然作用的产物，不同于人工土石坝，天然土石坝形成后有些存在几十年，几百年，有些形成后不久就溃决，这与坝体本身的性质和河水入流量有关，依据野外实测资料，证了土石坝的稳定性的主要是同土石坝的物质组成，几何形状和堰塞湖入流量等因素决定的，这一研究为天然土石坝的稳定性预测奠定了基础。     

Development of an empirical model for predicting peak breach flow of landslide dams considering material composition

The existing empirical models do not consider the influence of material composition of landslide deposits on the peak breach flow due to the uncertainty in the material composition and the randomness of its distribution. In this study, based on the statistical analyses and case comparison, the factors influencing the peak breach flow were comprehensively investigated. The highlight is the material composition-based classification of landslide deposits of 86 landslide cases with detailed grain-size distribution information. In order to consider the geometric morphology of landslide dams and the potential energy of dammed lakes, as well as the material composition of landslide deposits in an empirical model, a multiple regression method was applied on a database, which comprises of 44 documented landslide dam breach cases. A new empirical model for predicting the peak breach flow of landslide dams was developed. Furthermore, for the same 44 documented landslide dam failures, the predicted peak breach flow obtained by using the existing empirical models for embankment and landslide dams and that obtained by using the newly developed model were compared. The comparison of the root mean square error (E_rms) and the multiple coefficient of determination (R²) for each empirical model verifies the accuracy and rationality of the new empirical model. Furthermore, for fair validation, several landslide dam breach cases that occurred in recent years in China and have reliable measured data were also used in another comparison. The results show that the new empirical model can reasonably predict the peak breach flow, and exhibits the best performance among all the existing empirical models for embankment and landslide dam breaching.

     

Formation process of a large paleolandslide-dammed lake at Xuelongnang in the upper Jinsha River,SE Tibetan Plateau: constraints from OSL and <Superscript>14</Superscript>C dating

A large number of the landslide dams located on the major rivers at the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau have been previously identified through remote sensing analysis and field investigations. The Xuelongnang paleolake was one of the lakes formed by these landslide dams in the upper Jinsha River, where the association of a relict landslide dam, lacustrine sediment, and outburst sediment is well preserved. This preservation provides an opportunity to better understand the formation, evolution, and longevity of a large landslide-dammed lake in the upper Jinsha River. It was inferred that the Xuelongnang dammed lake may have been formed by an earthquake-induced paleoavalanche. The surface area of the lake at its peak was estimated at 7.0?×?10⁶ m², and the corresponding volume was approximately 3.1?×?10⁸ m³. Two outburst flood events were determined to have occurred during the life span of the lake. Based on the 18 ages obtained from optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and carbon-14 (¹⁴C) dating combined with stratigraphic sequences observed in the field, the paleolandslide-dammed lake was formed at approximately 2.1 ka and subsequently breached locally. The dammed lake was sustained for a period of some 900 years based on the chronological constraining. This study confirms that a major landslide-dammed lake can be sustained for at least hundreds of years and breached by several dam breaks in multiple periods, which contributed to the preservation of the knickpoints at millennial scale along the major rivers in the study area.     

余震作用下堰塞坝体破坏及溃决过程大型振动台试验研究

山区特大地震往往导致大量堰塞湖,例如2008年汶川地震形成了至少257个堰塞湖,并且主震后发生了大量余震,这些余震可能会影响堰塞坝体的安全状态。通过大型振动台模型试验,研究了余震及库水耦合作用下堰塞坝体的破坏及溃决机理和过程。共进行了两组不同材料的振动台模型试验,分别模拟含黏粒较多且颗粒较小（坝体Ⅰ）和基本不含黏粒且颗粒较大（坝体Ⅱ）的两种坝体。在不同水位条件下进行振动台试验。研究成果表明:（1）地震和库水耦合作用下堰塞坝体的主要溃决方式是漫顶溢流,主要溃决过程为地震力使松散的堰塞坝体发生沉陷,库水渗入使沉陷加剧,最终水位上升漫过坝顶发生溢流冲蚀破坏。（2）地震一般不会直接引起堰塞坝体的破坏。地震力对坝体稳定性的主要影响是使坝体发生沉陷变形。在地震和库水耦合作用下,坝体沉陷比单一因素作用下更为剧烈,因此地震作用会使漫顶溢流提前发生。（3）地震和库水耦合作用下坝体Ⅰ沉陷量大于坝体Ⅱ,说明现实中由大粒径岩土体组成的堰塞坝体具有更好的稳定性。     

老鹰岩滑坡成因机制与运动特征研究

老鹰岩滑坡是汶川地震触发的大型岩质滑坡,滑坡纵长450 m,最大展宽430 m,体积约1 500×104m3。滑坡掩埋了一座中型水电站,造成20余人死亡,巨大的滑体堆积厚达100余米的滑坡坝,形成了汶川震区库容量仅次于唐家山的第二大堰塞湖。强震触发形成老鹰岩滑坡分为三个阶段,即:①后缘震动拉裂阶段。老鹰岩滑坡后缘为一突兀山脊,地形对地震动力放大效应明显,震动拉裂沿长大结构面形成了一个陡峭、粗糙,与重力作用下呈光滑、有一定弧形的后缘拉裂面迥异的边界。②摩擦阻力降低、滑体溃滑阶段。地震动力的持续作用,地震波不断在滑面处发生反射和折射,使得滑面处摩擦阻力迅速降低,进而岩体内"锁固段"剪断,滑体顺层面高速下滑。③滑体高速流动堆积阶段。规模巨大的滑体,冲入姜巴沟,并对沟两侧的山体产生强烈的铲刮,高速碎屑流受到黄洞子沟左侧山体强力阻挡后折返,并震动堆积形成堰塞湖。     

汶川八级地震地质灾害研究

汶川地震触发了15000多处滑坡、崩塌、泥石流,估计直接造成2万人死亡。地质灾害隐患点达10000余多处,以崩塌体增加最为显著,反映出地震对山区高陡斜坡的影响差异性非常大,在山顶上的放大作用非常显著。通过综合分析堰塞湖库容、滑坡坝高以及坝体物质组成和结构,对地震形成的33处坝高大于10m的滑坡堰塞湖进行了评估,划分出极高、高、中和低4种溃决危险。汶川地震滑坡滑床往往不具连续平整的滑面,尖点撞击是极震区滑坡的一大共性,可以分为勺型滑床、凸型滑床和阶型滑床等类型。据实地调查,滑坡附近震毁建筑物垂向震动非常明显,具有地震抛掷撞击崩裂高速滑流三阶段特征。在高速滑流中,发生3种效应:(1)高速气垫效应,滑坡体由较大块石和土构成,具有一定厚度,飞行行程可达1~3km;(2)碎屑流效应,撞击粉碎的土石呈流动状态,特别是含水丰富时,形成长程流滑;(3)铲刮效应,巨大撞击力导致下部岩体崩裂,形成新滑坡、崩塌,但是,其厚度不大,滑床起伏不平。本文以北川城西滑坡和青川东河口滑坡为例,分析了地震滑坡高速远程滑动及成灾机理。北川县城城西滑坡导致1600人被埋死亡,数百间房屋被毁,是汶川地震触发的最严重的滑坡灾难,举世罕见。青川东河口滑坡碎屑流是汶川地震触发的较为典型的高速远程复合型滑坡,滑程约2400m,高速碎屑流冲抵清江河左岸,形成滑坡坝,致使7个村庄被埋,约400人死亡。     

Case study of a giant debris flow in the Wenjia Gully, Sichuan Province, China

The debris flow, which was triggered in the Wenjia Gully on August 13, 2010, is an extreme example of mass movement events, which occurred after the Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008. This Earthquake triggered in the Wenjia Gully the second largest co-seismic landslide, which can be classified as a rockslide-debris avalanche. A lot of loose sediments was deposited in the basin. In the main so called Deposition Area II of this landslide, with a volume of 30?×?10⁶?m³, flash floods can easily trigger debris flows because of the steep bottom slope and the relative small grain sizes of the sediments. The largest debris flow of August 13, 2010 destroyed the most downstream dam in the catchment during a heavy rain storm. The debris flow with a peak discharge of 1,530?m³/s and a total volume of 3.1?×?10⁶?m³ caused the death of 7 persons, 5 persons were missing, 39 persons were injured and 479 houses buried. After three rainy seasons, only 16?% of the landslide-debris deposition was taken away by 5 large-scale debris flow events. Since the threshold for rainfall triggered debris flows in the Wenjia Gully and other catchments drastically decreased after the Wenchuan Earthquake, new catastrophic events are expected in the future during the rainy season.     

中国地质科学院对5.12汶川地震的快速反应与调查研究

面对5.12汶川8级地震突发灾害,中国地质科学院组织专家,科学分析发震动力学背景,第一时间奔赴震中地区开展地表破裂变形与地震地质灾害调查,随后系统开展地震科学钻探选址、活动断裂与地震变形观测、地应力测量、地质灾害地面调查、堰塞湖与水工环综合评价。6位专家参加国家汶川地震专家委员会,编辑出版《汶川地震灾区地震—地质灾害图集》,组织召开汶川地震动力学分析研讨会,2位专家参加国土资源部抗震救灾前方指挥部工作。在第33届国际地质大会期间,组织汶川地震大型展览,应邀作汶川地震、地震科学钻、地表破裂等学术报告,受到国际同行的高度关注。组织申报汶川地震断裂带科学钻探工程,2008年11月第一口地震科学钻开工;组织落实国家专项、973课题、地质调查项目等科研任务,有效地调整了面向地质灾害的学科结构和人才布局。     

Breaching parameters of landslide dams

Landslide dams pose enormous risks to the public because of the potentially catastrophic floods generated by breaching of such dams. The need to better understand the threats of landslide dams raises questions about the proper estimation of breaching parameters (breach size, breaching duration, and peak outflow rate) of landslide dams and the feasibility of applying models for estimating the breaching parameters of man-made earthen dams to landslide dams. This paper aims to answer these two questions. In this study, a database of 1,239 landslide dams, including 257 cases formed during the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, has been compiled. Based on records of 52 landslide dam cases with breaching information in the database, empirical models for estimating the breaching parameters of landslide dams are developed. A comparison study between landslide dams and man-made earth and rockfill dams is conducted, which shows that the models for man-made earth and rockfill dams are not suitable for estimating the breaching parameters of landslide dams. Two case studies are presented to show the application of the set of empirical models developed in this paper.     

Impacts of September 21, 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake on the characteristics of gully-type debris flows in central Taiwan

Debris flows are more frequent in central Taiwan, because of its mountainous geography. For example, many debris flows were induced by Typhoon Herb in 1996. The Chi-Chi earthquake with a magnitude of 7.3, which took place in 1999 in central Taiwan, induced many landslides in this region. Some landslides turned into debris flows when Typhoon Toraji struck Taiwan in 2001. This study investigates the characteristics of the gullies where debris flows have occurred for a comparison. Aerial photos of these regions dated in 1997 (before the earthquake) and 2001 (after the earthquake) are used to identify the occurrence of gully-type debris flows. A Geographic Information System (GIS) is applied to acquire hydrological and geomorphic characteristics: stream gradient, stream length, catchment gradient, catchment area, form factor, and geology unit of these gullies. These characteristics in different study regions are presented in a statistical approach. The study of how strong ground motion affects the debris flows occurrence is conducted. The characteristics of the debris flow gullies triggered by typhoons before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake are quantitatively compared. The analysis results show that a significant transformation in the characteristics was induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake. In general, the transformation points out a lower hydrological and geomorphic threshold to trigger debris flows after the Chi-Chi earthquake. The susceptibility of rock units to strong ground motion is also examined. The analysis of debris flow density and accumulated rainfall in regions of different ground motion also reveal that the rainfall threshold decreases after the Chi-Chi earthquake.     

Stability of landslide dams and development of knickpoints

The Wenchuan earthquake triggered many landslides and numerous avalanches and created 100 odd quake lakes. The quake lakes may be removed or preserved. The removal strategy was applied to several large landslide dams, which were dangerous because massive amounts of water pooled up in the quake lakes. The dams could eventually fail under the action of dam outburst flooding, potentially endangering the lives of people in the downstream reaches. This paper studied the stability of landslide dams and the development of knickpoints by field investigations and experiments, and analyzing satellite images. The study concluded that if landslide dams were preserved, they would develop into knickpoints and act as a primary control of riverbed incision and, thus, reduce the potential of new landslide. The stability of landslide dams depends mainly on the development of the step-pool system and stream power of the flood flow. If a landslide dam consists of many boulders, a step-pool system may develop on the spillway channel of the dam, which would maximize the resistance, consume most of the flow energy and consequently protect the dam from incision. The development degree of the step-pool system is represented by a parameter S _p, which was measured with a specially designed instrument. A preservation ratio of landslide dams is defined as the ratio of preserved height after flood scouring to the original height of the dam. For streams with peak flood discharge lower than 30 m³/s, the preservation ratio is linearly proportional to S _p. For rivers with a peak flood discharge higher than 30 m³/s (30–30,000 m³/s), the minimum S _p value for stable channel increases with log p, in which p is the unit stream power. For a landslide dam with a poorly developed step-pool system, S _p is smaller than the minimum value and the outburst flood incises the spillway channel and causes failure of the dam. For preserved landslide dams, sediment deposits in the quake lakes. A landslide dam may develop into a knickpoint if it is stabilized by long-term action of the flow. Large knickpoints can totally change the fluvial processes and river morphology. Uplift of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau has caused extensive channel bed incision along almost all rivers. For many rivers, the incision has been partly controlled by knickpoints. Upstream reaches of a knickpoint have a new and unchanging base level. This brings about a transition from degradation to aggradation and from vertical bed evolution to horizontal fluvial process. Multiple and unstable channels are prominent in the reaches, upstream of the knickpoints. If hundreds of landslide dams occurred simultaneously on a reach of a mountain river, the potential energy of bank failure and the slope erosion would be greatly reduced and sediment yield from the watershed may be reduced to nearly zero. The quake lakes may be preserved long term and become beautiful landscapes. Streams with long-term unfilled quake lakes have good aquatic ecology.     

强震区侵蚀-溃决型泥石流的动力特性定量分析

强震作用导致流域内松散物源、微地貌及水文环境发生剧烈变化,致使强震区泥石流的形成机制和活动规律区别于普通泥石流。从启动判别、沟床侵蚀和溃决放大效应等3个方面入手,利用物理模型和数值模拟,定量分析了强震区泥石流启动-流通-堆积全过程的动力特性。结合案例验证了强震侵蚀-溃决型泥石流的力学机制。分析表明,泥石流沟床侵蚀是外部应力增加、内部强度衰减和松散物质基础3种机制的综合结果,沟道堰塞体溃决导致泥石流流量被瞬间放大,进而反馈到侵蚀机制中,导致泥石流规模剧增。红椿沟8·14泥石流案例验算显示,H02、H03堰塞体溃决导致泥石流流量放大至800.80m3·s-1,沟床侵蚀物质总量达34.72×104m3,约占总规模的50%。     

红石河堰塞湖漫顶溃坝风险评估

四川省青川县红石河堰塞湖是2008年5月12日汶川大地震形成的34座大型堰塞湖之一,是由东河口滑坡堵塞红石河形成的。该堰塞体高度约50 m、宽度约250 m、顺河向长度约500 m、形成的最大库容约400万m3。本文作者对红石河堰塞体做了较详尽的现场试验,包括土的冲蚀试验、土的基本物性试验等。基于现场试验数据,对土的冲蚀性和漫顶溃坝风险做了详细的分析。结果显示,从土的抗冲蚀性角度考虑,只要有水溢出就会有土体被冲蚀,这说明红石河堰塞体的漫顶溃决可能性较高。本文还提出经验公式来预测红石河堰塞体漫顶的溃决时间,大约为4.5d,如果考虑到大石块对抗冲蚀稳定性的有利影响,这一数值会增大。此外,还研究了溃决深度随时间的变化规律。     

汶川地震区文家沟泥石流成因模式分析

文家沟2008～2010年期间8次泥石流事件是在地震滑坡堆积体上因持续强降雨渗透变形溃决和后续侵蚀产生的,不同于一般的沟谷型和坡面型泥石流。文家沟滑坡堆积体上新生的泥石流沟共冲出松散固体物质总体积约180×104m3,2010年的"8.13"泥石流事件是其中规模最大的一次,冲出的松散固体物质体积约在115×104m3。文家沟泥石流的成因模式是,强降雨过程在滑坡堆积体上先期出现"渗流管涌、暂态壅水、溃决滑塌"的造沟作用模式,后期出现"溯源侵蚀、冲刷刨蚀、侧蚀坍塌、混合奔流(搅拌机)"的扩沟作用模式。2008年的"6.21"和2010年的"7.31"泥石流事件主要起因于前者,其他事件主要起因于后者。松散堆积体因排泄持续降雨入渗的能力不足而造成地下水滞留和水位升高是导致斜坡体稳定性降低的内在原因。当地下水壅高水位面达到水平时,堆积体内渗透动水压力达到最大,堆积斜坡的稳定性最低,成为堆积体表层发生滑塌溃决的临界条件。