How can the ISC location procedures be improved?

For many decades the International Seismological Centre (ISC) has used a well defined procedure to locate seismic events using first P-onsets and the Jeffreys-Bullen tables ([Jeffreys, H., Bullen, K.E., 1940. Seismological Tables. British Association for the Advancement of Science, Gray Milne Trust, London, 50 pp]) as the travel-time reference. However, during the last two decades, more accurate spherical Earth models have been published and enhanced computer capabilities make it easier to implement more sophisticated data inversion schemes. Several features that may improve the location procedure at the ISC were systematically tested using the location program HYPOSAT. The investigated features were the influence of

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the usage of the spherical Earth models JB, PREM, IASP91, SP6, and AK135;

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the usage of later onsets;

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travel-time corrections for local crustal structure based on CRUST 5.1;

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different weighting of the residuals;

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reducing the amount of defining data at a late stage of the inversion process.

Application of different combinations of these factors led to a reduction of the location errors for the 156 test events, of which the epicenter is known with an accuracy of less than 5 km. However, no clear rule of common factors to achieve this result could be defined. Most promising is the application of AK135 as model for travel-time calculations, applying crust specific station corrections and corrections for the reflection points of surface reflections, a combined usage of surface and core reflections, and removing data which have large residuals or do not much contribute to the solution for the last iterations.     

How can a few streamflow measurements help to predict daily hydrographs at almost ungauged sites?

Abstract

Available data from nearby gauging stations can provide a great source of hydrometric information that is potentially transferable to an ungauged site. Furthermore, streamflow measurements may even be available for the ungauged site. This paper explores the potential of four distance-based regionalization methods to simulate daily hydrographs at almost ungauged pollution-control sites. Two methods use only the hydrological information provided by neighbouring catchments; the other two are new regionalization methods parameterized with a limited number of streamflow data available at the site of interest. Based on a network of 149 streamgauges and 21 pollution-control sites located in the Upper Rhine-Meuse area, the comparative assessment demonstrates the benefit of making available point streamflow measurements at the location of interest for improving quantitative streamflow prediction. The advantage is moderate for the prediction of flow types (stormflow, recession flow, baseflow) and pulse shape (duration of rising limb and falling limb).

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Viglione     

Domenico solution--is it valid?

The Domenico solution is widely used in several analytical models for simulating ground water contaminant transport scenarios. Unfortunately, many textbook as well as journal article treatments of this approximate solution are full of empirical statements that are developed without mathematical rigor. For this reason, a rigorous analysis of this solution is warranted. In this article, we present a mathematical method to derive the Domenico solution and explore its limits. Our analysis shows that the Domenico solution is a true analytical solution when the value of longitudinal dispersivity is zero. For nonzero longitudinal dispersivity values, the Domenico solution will introduce a finite amount of error. We use an example problem to quantify the nature of this error and suggest some general guidelines for the appropriate use of this solution.     

How can the uncertainty in the natural inflow regime propagate into the assessment of water resource systems?

The Canadian Rocky Mountain headwaters support the water resource systems of the Canadian Prairies. Significant variations in natural headwater contributions have been observed due to warming climate. Projecting future natural headwater flows under climate change effects, however, has large uncertainty. First, there are difficulties in climate modeling and downscaling in alpine regions. Second, streamflow modeling in mountainous areas is extremely challenging. There is therefore a need to understand the effects of uncertainty in the natural inflow regime, and in particular how this translates into uncertainty in representing the state and the outflow of water resource systems. Considering the Oldman River basin in Alberta, Canada, we synthesized different inflow regimes based on site/inter-site properties of the historical inflow regime. The water resources system was then conditioned on the synthesized inflow regimes to identify the mechanisms of error propagation from the headwater streamflows to the water allocations. The results show that the response of the water resource system to the uncertainty in the generated inflow regime depends on the system state, flow condition and the component of interest. Generally, the response of the reservoirs to the uncertainty in the estimated inflow regime is more significant in dry years, in particular during low flow conditions. The response at the system outlet is rather different, as the propagation of the headwater uncertainty is more significant during high flow conditions. Also, similar inflow estimates in terms of error and uncertainty may result in different error and uncertainty estimates in the simulated outflows; therefore, lower bias and uncertainty in estimating the regional inflow regime does not necessarily mean lower bias and uncertainty in simulating the streamflow at the outlet of the system. Our results provide improved understanding of uncertainty propagation through complex water resource systems, but also portray the need for better climate and hydrological modeling in the Rocky Mountains for improved water management in the Canadian Prairies, particularly in the face of uncertain climate futures. This will be crucial if the natural headwater inflows decline and/or the system faces drought conditions.     

How can stream bank erosion be predicted on small water courses?Veri?cation of BANCS model on the Kubrica watershed

The current paper deals with the evaluation of the BANCS erosion prediction model and its two componentsethe Bank Erosion Hazard Index(BEHI) and Near-Bank Stress(NBS) indices. To construct the erosion prediction curves, 18 experimental sections were established on the Kubrica Stream, district of Trencín, Slovakia. Each section was assessed through the NBS index and BEHI index and real annual bank erosion was measured using erosion toe pins. Subsequently, the relations between the BEHI and real annual bank erosion was assessed through regression and correlation analyses. The relation proved to be moderately strong, with the correlation coefficient(R) reaching 0.47. Further, the relation between the NBS index and real annual bank erosion was evaluated, which was also moderately strong, with R= 0.65.Based on the measured data, two erosion prediction curves were constructed, the first for moderate BEHI, with R= 0.69 and coefficient of determination(R~2) of 0.47 and the second for high BEHI with R=0.74 and R~2= 0.55. The prediction curves were based on data from one year of measurements and can, therefore, be used only for discharges that occurred within that year and in the region where the model was developed. In the current case, according to runoff Curve Numbers(CN), the real culmination discharge was Q ? 1.88 m~3/s, which is roughly equivalent to 1.5-year recurrence interval flow(Q_1.5).     

How long is a hillslope?

Hillslope length is a fundamental attribute of landscapes, intrinsically linked to drainage density, landslide hazard, biogeochemical cycling and hillslope sediment transport. Existing methods to estimate catchment average hillslope lengths include inversion of drainage density or identification of a break in slope–area scaling, where the hillslope domain transitions into the fluvial domain. Here we implement a technique which models flow from point sources on hilltops across pixels in a digital elevation model (DEM), based on flow directions calculated using pixel aspect, until reaching the channel network, defined using recently developed channel extraction algorithms. Through comparisons between these measurement techniques, we show that estimating hillslope length from plots of topographic slope versus drainage area, or by inverting measures of drainage density, systematically underestimates hillslope length. In addition, hillslope lengths estimated by slope–area scaling breaks show large variations between catchments of similar morphology and area. We then use hillslope length–relief structure of landscapes to explore nature of sediment flux operating on a landscape. Distinct topographic forms are predicted for end‐member sediment flux laws which constrain sediment transport on hillslopes as being linearly or nonlinearly dependent on hillslope gradient. Because our method extracts hillslope profiles originating from every ridgetop pixel in a DEM, we show that the resulting population of hillslope length–relief measurements can be used to differentiate between linear and nonlinear sediment transport laws in soil mantled landscapes. We find that across a broad range of sites across the continental United States, topography is consistent with a sediment flux law in which transport is nonlinearly proportional to topographic gradient. © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

How can stream bank erosion be predicted on small water courses? Verification of BANCS model on the Kubrica watershed

The current paper deals with the evaluation of the BANCS erosion prediction model and its two componentsethe Bank Erosion Hazard Index(BEHI)and Near-Bank Stress(NBS)indices.To construct the erosion prediction curves,18 experimental sections were established on the Kubrica Stream,district of Trencín,Slovakia.Each section was assessed through the NBS index and BEHI index and real annual bank erosion was measured using erosion toe pins.Subsequently,the relations between the BEHI and real annual bank erosion was assessed through regression and correlation analyses.The relation proved to be moderately strong,with the correlation coefficient(R)reaching 0.47.Further,the relation between the NBS index and real annual bank erosion was evaluated,which was also moderately strong,with R=0.65.Based on the measured data,two erosion prediction curves were constructed,the first for moderate BEHI,with R=0.69 and coefficient of determination(R2)of 0.47 and the second for high BEHI with R=0.74 and R2=0.55.The prediction curves were based on data from one year of measurements and can,therefore,be used only for discharges that occurred within that year and in the region where the model was developed.In the current case,according to runoff Curve Numbers(CN),the real culmination discharge was Q=1.88 m3/s,which is roughly equivalent to 1.5-year recurrence interval flow(Q1.5).     

How the solar dynamics can influence the Sun–Earth medium term relationship

We recall how the Sun is introduced in the present climatic models and discuss why the solar standard model (SSM) framework is insufficient to describe the Sun–Earth medium term relationship. We then report on the different sources of variability. The SoHO mission allows a comparison between two successive solar minima and puts new constraints on the internal rotation profile. The coming space missions SDO and PICARD will add crucial information on internal circulations and on the superficial asphericity. The interplay between the solar dynamics and terrestrial atmospheric models is in its infancy, it calls for medium term uninterrupted solar observations which will take benefit of a formation flying concept.     

How do potential evapotranspiration formulas influence hydrological projections?

ABSTRACT

This paper evaluates the sensitivity of hydrological projections to the choice of potential evapotranspiration formulas on two natural sub-catchments, in Canada and Germany. Twenty-four equations, representing a large range of options, are applied for calibration over the whole observation time series and for future conditions. The modelling chain is composed of dynamically downscaled climatic projections and a 20-member (ensemble) hydrological model, along with a snow module. The roots of the sensitivity and its propagation within the hydrological chain are evaluated to show influences on climate change impact conclusions. Results show large differences between the 24 simulated potential evapotranspiration time series. However, these discrepancies only moderately affect the calibration efficiency of hydrological models as a result of adaptation of parameters. Choice of formula influences hydrological projections and climate change conclusions for both catchments in terms of simulated and projected values, and also in the magnitude of changes during important dynamic periods such as spring and autumn high flows and summer low flows. Spread of the hydrological response is lower for the combinational formulas than for temperature-based or radiation-based equations. All the results reveal the importance of testing a large spectrum of potential evapotranspiration formulas in a decision-making context, such as water resources management.     

Earthquake Rupturing in Fluid-Overpressured Crust: How Common?

Whether or not ruptures nucleate in fluid-overpressured crust (λ _v = P _f/σ _v > 0.4) is important because pore-fluids overpressured above hydrostatic lower fault frictional strength and may also vary through the earthquake cycle, acting as an independent variable affecting fault failure. Containment of fluid overpressure is precarious because pressure-dependent activation of faults and fractures allows drainage from overpressured portions of the crust. Discharge of fluids through activated fault-fracture permeability (fault-valve action) decreases overpressure so that subsequent failure depends on the cycling of both overpressure and frictional strength as well as tectonic stress. Geometric and mechanical considerations suggest that fluid overpressures are more likely to develop and be sustained in compressional/transpressional regimes as opposed to extensional/transtensional tectonic settings. On the basis of geophysical observations and force-balance analyses, subduction interface shear zones appear to be strongly but variably overpressured to near-lithostatic levels (λ _v > 0.9) over the full depth range of seismogenic megathrusts. Strong overpressuring at seismogenic depths is also documented in active fold-thrust belts and in areas of ongoing compressional inversion (e.g., northern Honshu) where inherited normal faults are reactivated as steep reverse faults, requiring near-lithostatic overpressures (λ _v → 1.0) at depths of rupture initiation. Evidence for overpressuring around strike-slip faults is less clear but tends to be strongest in areas of transpression. In areas of extensional tectonics coincident with particularly high fluid discharge, there is some evidence of overpressuring concentrated towards the base of the seismogenic zone. In general, because of the limited resolution of geophysical techniques, it is easier to make the case for rupture propagation through overpressured crust than to make a definitive case for the direct involvement of overpressured fluids in rupture nucleation, though in some instances the circumstantial evidence is compelling. An unresolved related issue is the heterogeneity of overpressuring. Do the active fault zones themselves serve as fluid conduits that are locally overpressured with respect to the surrounding crust?     

How do streamflow generation mechanisms affect watershed hypsometry?

Several studies have shown that the dominant streamflow generation mechanism in a river basin can leave distinct geomorphological signatures in basin topography. In particular, it has been suggested previously that basins generated by groundwater discharge tend to have a larger hypsometric integral than surface runoff basins because fluvial erosion is more focused in the valleys where groundwater discharge tends to occur. In this analysis, we aim to clarify this relationship by developing an alternative method to quantify the effects of streamflow generation mechanisms on basin hypsometry and by using a numerical model that can generate streamflow by different processes to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the hydrological and geomorphological properties of the basin. The model results suggest that the hypsometric characteristics that are usually associated with groundwater discharge basins, such as a larger hypsometric integral, occur primarily when drainage networks are still advancing in the watershed. During later stages of development, an additional factor such as lithological controls or a distinct geomorphological process would be needed to preserve these features. The model results also show that the hypsometric effects are stronger when the parameters of the fluvial erosion process promote the influence of small discharge rates. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What can we learn about reconnection from coronal mass ejections?

It may be possible to calculate the rate of reconnection in the corona by measuring the rate at which the temporary coronal hole formed by a coronal mass ejection (CME) disappears. This calculation is possible if the disappearance of the hole is caused by the same reconnection process which creates the giant X-ray arches associated with CMEs. These arches form just below the vertical current sheet that is created as the CME drags magnetic field lines out into interplanetary space, and they are similar in form to ‘post’-flare loops, except that they often have an upward motion that is different. Instead of continually slowing with time as ‘post’-flare loops do, they move upwards at a rate which increases, or remains nearly constant, with time. This difference has raised doubts about the relevance of reconnection to the formation and propagation of the arches. Using a two-dimensional flux rope model to calculate the size and location of the current sheet as a function of time, we find that the difference between the motion of ‘post’-flare loops and giant arches can be explained simply by the variation of the coronal Alfvén speed with height.     

CMEs: How do the puzzle pieces fit together?

This review consists of questions to participants in the S-RAMP Symposium (S3) on CMEs and Coronal Holes, as well as to a few others, and their responses in a “town meeting” format (originally conducted on Hugh Hudson's website). Here we deal only with CMEs. The questions we ask aim at probing the weaknesses of existing models and highlighting controversies, thereby providing guidance toward a more complete view of solar eruptions. Topics covered include: the “solar flare myth”, flux ropes, new phenomena (EIT waves, dimmings, global brightenings), helicity and sigmoids, and transequatorial loops (as sources of CMEs). Although this is a review, we're more concerned here with what is not known than what is already agreed upon. We asked people to speculate freely in advance of the observational, analytical, and theoretical work that will provide definitive answers—this is not the standard Scientific Method at work!     

How Does Subsurface Characterization Affect Simulations of Hyporheic Exchange?

We investigated the role of increasingly well‐constrained geologic structures in the subsurface (i.e., subsurface architecture) in predicting streambed flux and hyporheic residence time distribution (RTD) for a headwater stream. Five subsurface realizations with increasingly resolved lithological boundaries were simulated in which model geometries were based on increasing information about flow and transport using soil and geologic maps, surface observations, probing to depth to refusal, seismic refraction, electrical resistivity (ER) imaging of subsurface architecture, and time‐lapse ER imaging during a solute tracer study. Particle tracking was used to generate RTDs for each model run. We demonstrate how improved characterization of complex lithological boundaries and calibration of porosity and hydraulic conductivity affect model prediction of hyporheic flow and transport. Models using hydraulic conductivity calibrated using transient ER data yield estimates of streambed flux that are three orders of magnitude larger than uncalibrated models using estimated values for hydraulic conductivity based on values published for nearby hillslopes (10^?4 vs. 10^?7 m²/s, respectively). Median residence times for uncalibrated and calibrated models are 10³ and 10⁰ h, respectively. Increasingly well‐resolved subsurface architectures yield wider hyporheic RTDs, indicative of more complex hyporheic flowpath networks and potentially important to biogeochemical cycling. The use of ER imaging to monitor solute tracers informs subsurface structure not apparent from other techniques, and helps to define transport properties of the subsurface (i.e., hydraulic conductivity). Results of this study demonstrate the value of geophysical measurements to more realistically simulate flow and transport along hyporheic flowpaths.     

Spatio‐temporal tracer variability in the glacier melt end‐member — How does it affect hydrograph separation results?

Geochemical and isotopic tracers were often used in mixing models to estimate glacier melt contributions to streamflow, whereas the spatio‐temporal variability in the glacier melt tracer signature and its influence on tracer‐based hydrograph separation results received less attention. We present novel tracer data from a high‐elevation catchment (17 km², glacierized area: 34%) in the Oetztal Alps (Austria) and investigated the spatial, as well as the subdaily to monthly tracer variability of supraglacial meltwater and the temporal tracer variability of winter baseflow to infer groundwater dynamics. The streamflow tracer variability during winter baseflow conditions was small, and the glacier melt tracer variation was higher, especially at the end of the ablation period. We applied a three‐component mixing model with electrical conductivity and oxygen‐18. Hydrograph separation (groundwater, glacier melt, and rain) was performed for 6 single glacier melt‐induced days (i.e., 6 events) during the ablation period 2016 (July to September). Median fractions (±uncertainty) of groundwater, glacier melt, and rain for the events were estimated at 49±2%, 35±11%, and 16±11%, respectively. Minimum and maximum glacier melt fractions at the subdaily scale ranged between 2±5% and 76±11%, respectively. A sensitivity analysis showed that the intraseasonal glacier melt tracer variability had a marked effect on the estimated glacier melt contribution during events with large glacier melt fractions of streamflow. Intra‐daily and spatial variation of the glacier melt tracer signature played a negligible role in applying the mixing model. The results of this study (a) show the necessity to apply a multiple sampling approach in order to characterize the glacier melt end‐member and (b) reveal the importance of groundwater and rainfall–runoff dynamics in catchments with a glacial flow regime.     

The Haitian housing dilemma: can sustainability and hazard-resilience be achieved?

The present danger in the Haitian rebuilding efforts, outside of the extreme level of need that often encourages temporary solutions at the expense of long-term capacity building, centers on the assumption that sustainability and resilience are mutually exclusive. They cannot be if this rare opportunity to achieve meaningful long-term change within a country that has suffered for far too long is to be fully seized. This change can be realized only with appropriate policies and incentives that do not simply fund the re-implementation of vulnerable construction modes in an effort to meet immediate needs, but that foster the introduction of alternative structural systems with the requirement that they build genuine local capacity to deliver sustainable and resilient homes that meet Haiti’s cultural and economic constraints. This short communication reviews the important housing dilemma Haiti now faces, a dilemma with international extensions since researchers and construction firms from all over the world (including France, Germany, Italy, Greece, Japan, Canada, US) are involved, and presents thoughts for the importance of offering solutions that serve both ends of the economic spectrum, are hazard-resilient and truly sustainable.