Acceleration and evolution of faults: An example from the Hunter Mountain–Panamint Valley fault zone,Eastern California

We present new space geodetic data indicating that the present slip rate on the Hunter Mountain–Panamint Valley fault zone in Eastern California (5.0 ± 0.5 mm/yr) is significantly faster than geologic estimates based on fault total offset and inception time. We interpret this discrepancy as evidence for an accelerating fault and propose a new model for fault initiation and evolution. In this model, fault slip rate initially increases with time; hence geologic estimates averaged over the early stages of the fault's activity will tend to underestimate the present-day rate. The model is based on geologic data (total offset and fault initiation time) and geodetic data (present day slip rate). The model assumes a monotonic increase in slip rate with time as the fault matures and straightens. The rate increase follows a simple Rayleigh cumulative distribution. Integrating the rate-time path from fault inception to present-day gives the total fault offset.     

Active tectonics of the Northern Rif (Morocco) from geomorphic and geochronological data

We present results of a geomorphological and morphotectonic analysis of the northeastern part of the Rif. We show that the present day kinematics of the Rif is characterized by active deformation along the Trougout and Nekor faults in the North-East. Digital Elevation Models of offset drainage features (streams, fluvial terraces) allow determining a normal-left-lateral motion along the Trougout fault and a left-lateral strike-slip motion along the Nekor fault. Preliminary ³He cosmogenic dates of tectonic markers yield vertical and horizontal slip rates of ∼0.9 mm/yr and ∼0.5 mm/yr, respectively along the Trougout fault. The present-day localized transtension seen in the north-eastern Rif morphology (Ras Tarf) is coeval with uplifted marine terraces near the Al Hoceima Bay. U/Th dating of shells yield an average uplift rate of ∼0.2 mm/yr during the past 500 ka. These data show that active transtension in the northeastern Rif is also associated with uplift. These new morphotectonic constraints are consistent with the GPS measurements showing southwestward overall motion of most of the Rif belt with respect to stable Africa.     

Shallow fault segmentation of the Alpine fault zone,New Zealand revealed from 2- and 3-D GPR surveying

Where they are preserved, landforms that have been truncated and offset by past fault movements provide potentially valuable quantitative data that can be used to estimate slip rates. At such locations, it is important to investigate the fault zone in sufficient detail to understand how displacements are accommodated on individual fault strands. At a site along a northern section of the Alpine fault zone on the South Island of New Zealand, surface mapping of a series of faulted river terraces and channels has revealed a complicated and poorly understood paleoearthquake history. We have acquired high-resolution 2- and 3-D ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data over a large area (~ 500 × 500 m) of the terraces to map along-strike changes in shallow (<20 m) fault zone morphology. By identifying distinct reflection patterns within the topographically migrated 3-D GPR volumes and extrapolating them to the longer and more widely spaced GPR profiles, we determined the subsurface extent of two main structural/depositional facies that were juxtaposed by three left-stepping en-echelon fault strands. Two regions of warped strata are interpreted to result from transpressive folding between the overlapping strands, where displacement is transferred from one fault to the next. We suggest that diffuse deformation between the overlapping fault tips results in anomalously low estimates for horizontal and vertical fault displacements of some geomorphic features.     

Spatiotemporal patterns of fault slip rates across the Central Sierra Nevada frontal fault zone

Patterns in fault slip rates through time and space are examined across the transition from the Sierra Nevada to the Eastern California Shear Zone–Walker Lane belt. At each of four sites along the eastern Sierra Nevada frontal fault zone between 38 and 39° N latitude, geomorphic markers, such as glacial moraines and outwash terraces, are displaced by a suite of range-front normal faults. Using geomorphic mapping, surveying, and ¹⁰Be surface exposure dating, mean fault slip rates are defined, and by utilizing markers of different ages (generally, ~ 20 ka and ~ 150 ka), rates through time and interactions among multiple faults are examined over 10⁴–10⁵ year timescales.At each site for which data are available for the last ~ 150 ky, mean slip rates across the Sierra Nevada frontal fault zone have probably not varied by more than a factor of two over time spans equal to half of the total time interval (~ 20 ky and ~ 150 ky timescales): 0.3 ± 0.1 mm year^? 1 (mode and 95% CI) at both Buckeye Creek in the Bridgeport basin and Sonora Junction; and 0.4 + 0.3/?0.1 mm year^? 1 along the West Fork of the Carson River at Woodfords. Data permit rates that are relatively constant over the time scales examined. In contrast, slip rates are highly variable in space over the last ~ 20 ky. Slip rates decrease by a factor of 3–5 northward over a distance of ~ 20 km between the northern Mono Basin (1.3 + 0.6/?0.3 mm year^? 1 at Lundy Canyon site) to the Bridgeport Basin (0.3 ± 0.1 mm year^? 1). The 3-fold decrease in the slip rate on the Sierra Nevada frontal fault zone northward from Mono Basin is indicative of a change in the character of faulting north of the Mina Deflection as extension is transferred eastward onto normal faults between the Sierra Nevada and Walker Lane belt.A compilation of regional deformation rates reveals that the spatial pattern of extension rates changes along strike of the Eastern California Shear Zone-Walker Lane belt. South of the Mina Deflection, extension is accommodated within a diffuse zone of normal and oblique faults, with extension rates increasing northward on the Fish Lake Valley fault. Where faults of the Eastern California Shear Zone terminate northward into the Mina Deflection, extension rates increase northward along the Sierra Nevada frontal fault zone to ~ 0.7 mm year^? 1 in northern Mono Basin. This spatial pattern suggests that extension is transferred from more easterly fault systems, e.g., Fish Lake Valley fault, and localized on the Sierra Nevada frontal fault zone as the Eastern California Shear Zone–Walker Lane belt faulting is transferred through the Mina Deflection.     

GPS constraints on the deformation of Azerbaijan and surrounding regions

In this study, we present new GPS observations in Azerbaijan to provide an improved basis for determining the distribution of crustal deformation throughout the country and surrounding areas. The deformation field in the region has been analyzed with a dense GPS network configuration and a reliable quantification of the ongoing deformation was achieved. Results show that while contraction is dominant over the whole region, it is mostly concentrated on the middle and eastern parts of Caucasus Thrust Fault reaching up to 6.4 ± 0.2 mm/yr and Lesser Caucasus Fault does no accommodate more than 1–2 mm/yr of contraction. New network also clearly substantiates that the West Caspian Fault, which is a continuation of Caucasus Thrust Fault in the south, accommodates right-lateral slip rates of 7.1 ± 0.3 mm/yr in addition to 5.5 ± 0.3 mm/yr contraction rates.     

Inferred fault geometry and slip distribution of the 2010 Jiashian,Taiwan, earthquake is consistent with a thick-skinned deformation model

We invert measurements of coseismic displacements from 139 continuously recorded GPS sites from the 2010, Jiashian, Taiwan earthquake to solve for fault geometry and slip distribution using an elastic uniform stress drop inversion. The earthquake occurred at a depth of ~ 23 km in an area between the Western Foothills fold-and-thrust belt and the crystalline high mountains of the Central Range, providing an opportunity to examine the deep fault structure under Taiwan. The inferred rupture plane is oblique to the prominent orientation of thrust faults and parallel to several previously recognized NW-striking transfer zones that appear to connect stepping thrusts. We find that a fault striking 318°–344° with dip of 26°–41° fits the observations well with oblique reverse-sinistral slip under a low stress drop of about 0.5 MPa. The derived geodetic moment of 2.92 × 10¹⁸ N-m is equivalent to a M_w = 6.24 earthquake. Coseismic slip is largely concentrated within a circular patch with a 10-km radius at the depth between 10 and 24 km and maximum slip of 190 mm. We suggest this earthquake ruptured the NW-striking Chishan transfer fault zone, which we interpret as a listric NE-dipping lateral ramp with oblique slip connecting stepping thrust faults (ramps). The inferred slip on the lateral ramp is considerably deeper than the 7–15 km deep detachment identified in previous studies of western Taiwan. We infer an active basal detachment under western Taiwan at a depth of at least ~ 20–23 km based on these inversion results. The earthquake may have nucleated at the base of the lateral ramp near the intersection with the basal detachment. Coulomb stress change calculations suggest that this earthquake moved several NE-striking active thrust faults in western Taiwan nearer to failure.     

Bayesian analysis on earthquake magnitude related to an active fault in Taiwan

It is understood that sample size could be an issue in earthquake statistical studies, causing the best estimate being too deterministic or less representative derived from limited statistics from observation. Like many Bayesian analyses and estimates, this study shows another novel application of the Bayesian approach to earthquake engineering, using prior data to help compensate the limited observation for the target problem to estimate the magnitude of the recurring Meishan earthquake in central Taiwan. With the Bayesian algorithms developed, the Bayesian analysis suggests that the next major event induced by the Meishan fault in central Taiwan should be in M_w 6.44±0.33, based on one magnitude observation of M_w 6.4 from the last event, along with the prior data including fault length of 14 km, rupture width of 15 km, rupture area of 216 km², average displacement of 0.7 m, slip rate of 6 mm/yr, and five earthquake empirical models.     

Drainage migration and out of sequence thrusting in Bhalukpong,Western Arunachal Himalaya,India

In the foreland regions of the Western Arunachal Himalaya (WAH), geological studies along the Kameng river (between Tipi village and the Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT)) reveal four levels of unpaired terraces and a paired terrace. In WAH, wrench deformation of HFT zone resulted in a SE propagation of the Balipara anticline and it is suggested that the Mikir high basement controls its orientation. Ages of terrace surfaces from Siwaliks suggest that since the Late Pleistocene, Kameng River migrated at a rate varying between ∼7.5 cm/yr in upper reaches and ∼13.5 cm/yr towards northeast due to HFT related uplift. In the Brahmaputra plains, luminescence ages of abandoned paleochannel deposits suggest eastward shifting of the Kameng river at an average rate of ∼1 m/yr. Field evidences between Bhalukpong and Tipi villages show Pliocene strath and Quaternary terrace surfaces, displaced by faults that do not correspond to the mapped faults in the foreland region. We interpret them as out-of-sequence thrusts (OOSTs). This is the first such report of OOST in the NE Himalaya. Presence of active OOST is inferred by similar age (∼1 ka) and differing incision rates of the surface of same terrace (T_2b) in adjacent locations. This suggests that OOSTs in the western Arunachal Siwalik are <1 ka. Average slip rate and horizontal shortening rate on OOST during the Holocene, are calculated as ∼12 mm/yr and 7 mm/yr respectively. Thus any estimation of Holocene shortening in the Siwalik therefore, needs to incorporate slip along the OOSTs given that it accommodates a significant amount of N-S compression of the Himalayan fold-and-thrust belt. The reason for OOST in the WAH Siwalik foreland is discussed in terms of the critical wedge dynamics arising from erosion via tectonics-climate interaction. We estimate a minimum slip rate of Siwalik as ∼27 mm/yr during the Holocene and suggest acceleration in shortening rates east of Bhutan.     

Modification of fault slip models of the Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake by far field GPS observations

GPS data from Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) are used to derive far-field co-seismic displacements induced by the M_w 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake. Significant horizontal displacements about 30 mm, 10 mm, and 20 mm were caused by this large event in northeast China, north China, and on the Korean peninsula respectively. Vectors of relatively large horizontal displacements with dominant east components pointed to the epicenter of this earthquake. The east components show an exponential decay with the longitude, which is characteristic of the decay of the co-seismic horizontal displacements associated with earthquakes of thrust rupture. The exponential fit of the east components shows that the influence of the co-seismic displacements can be detected by GPS at a distance of about 3200 km from the epicenter of the earthquake. By considering the capability of the far field displacements for constraining the inversion of the fault slip model of the earthquake, we use spherically stratified Earth models to simulate the co-seismic displacements induced by this event. Using computations and comparisons, we discuss the effects of parameters of layered Earth models on the results of dislocation modeling. Comparisons of the modeled and observed displacements show that far field GPS observations are effective for constraining the fault slip model. The far field horizontal displacements observed by GPS are used to modify the slips and seismic moments of fault slip models. The result of this work is applicable as a reference for other researchers to study seismic source rupture and crustal deformation.     

Constraining the long-term evolution of the slip rate for a major extensional fault system in the central Aegean,Greece, using thermochronology

The brittle/ductile transition is a major rheologic boundary in the crust yet little is known about how or if rates of tectonic processes are influenced by this boundary. In this study we examine the slip history of the large-scale Naxos/Paros extensional fault system (NPEFS), Cyclades, Greece, by comparing published slip rates for the ductile crust with new thermochronological constraints on slip rates in the brittle regime. Based on apatite and zircon fission-track (AFT and ZFT) and (U–Th)/He dating we observe variable slip rates across the brittle/ductile transition on Naxos. ZFT and AFT ages range from 11.8 ± 0.8 to 9.7 ± 0.8 Ma and 11.2 ± 1.6 to 8.2 ± 1.2 Ma and (U–Th)/He zircon and apatite ages are between 10.4 ± 0.4 to 9.2 ± 0.3 Ma and 10.7 ± 1.0 to 8.9 ± 0.6 Ma, respectively. On Paros, ZFT and AFT ages range from 13.1 ± 1.4 Ma to 11.1 ± 1.0 Ma and 12.7 ± 2.8 Ma to 10.5 ± 2.0 Ma while the (U–Th)/He zircon ages are slightly younger between 8.3 ± 0.4 Ma and 9.8 ± 0.3 Ma. All ages consistently decrease northwards in the direction of hanging wall transport. Most of our new thermochronological results and associated thermal modeling more strongly support the scenario of an identical fault dip and a constant or slightly accelerating slip rate of ∼ 6–8 km Myr^− 1 on the NPEFS across the brittle/ductile transition. Even the intrusion of a large granodiorite body into the narrowing fault zone at ∼ 12 Ma on Naxos does not seem to have affected the thermal structure of the area in a way that would significantly disturb the slip rate. The data also show that the NPEFS accomplished a minimum total offset of ∼ 50 km between ∼ 16 and 8 Ma.     

Systematic deflection and offset of the Yangtze River drainage system along the strike-slip Ganzi-Yushu-Xianshuihe Fault Zone,Tibetan Plateau

The Ganzi-Yushu-Xianshuihe Fault Zone (GYXFZ) is a typical active strike-slip fault that has triggered many large historic earthquakes, including the 2010 M_w 6.9 Yushu earthquake in the central Tibetan Plateau. This fault zone extends for ca. 800 km from the central Tibetan Plateau to its southeastern margin and varies in trend from WNW-ESE in the northwestern segment of the fault zone to NNW-SSE in the southeastern segment, having the geometry of an arc projecting northeastwards. In this study, we present evidence for the systematical sinistral deflection and/or offset of the Yangtze River and its branch stream channels and valleys along the GYXFZ. Topographic analysis of three-dimensional (3D) perspective images constructed using digital elevation model (DEM) data, 0.5 m-resolution WorldView and GeoEye images, and 15 m-resolution Landsat-Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) images, together with analysis of geological structures, reveals the following: (i) the main river channels and valleys of the Yangtze River drainage system show systematic sinistral deflections and/or offsets along the GYXFZ; (ii) various amounts of sinistral offset have accumulated on the tributary stream channels, valleys, and gullies of the Yangtze River along the fault, with a linear relation, D = aL, between the upstream length L from the deflected point and the offset amount D with a certain coefficient a; (iii) the maximum amount of sinistral offset is up to ca. 60 km, which was accumulated in the past 13–5 Ma; and (iv) the long-term average strike-slip rate is ca. 4.6–12 mm/year. Geological and geomorphic evidence, combined with geophysical data, demonstrates that the GYXFZ is currently active as one of the major seismogenic faults in the Tibetan Plateau, dominated by left-lateral strike-slip motion. Our findings supply important evidence for the tectonic evolution of strike-slip faults in the Tibetan Plateau since the Eurasia-India continental collision.     

Asymmetric deformation across the San Francisco Bay Area faults from GPS observations in Northern California

We show that geodetic data from the Bay Area Regional Deformation (BARD) network indicate asymmetric motion across the San Andreas fault in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), resulting from a strong contrast in rigidity across the fault, as determined previously from seismological data. Assuming asymmetric motion across the fault, we determine the location and size of the maximum strain rate in the region. We find that, compared to the determination using a symmetric model of deformation, it is shifted eastward and its value increases from ～0.4 μstrain/yr to ～0.65 μstrain/yr. Such strain rate amplitudes are consistent with previous geodetic slip rate estimates. We confirm that the geological units located east of SAF are entrained by the motion of the Pacific Plate and that the San Andreas fault (SAF) is the real rheological limit between the Pacific and North-American Plates. The asymmetry of rheology constrained in this study implies the strain rate maximum in SFBA is likely located between SAF and the Hayward fault system. This also has implications for hazards in the northern SFBA, in particular on the Rodgers creek fault.     

Paleomagnetic evidence for a pre-early Eocene (∼ 50 Ma) bending of the Patagonian orocline (Tierra del Fuego,Argentina): Paleogeographic and tectonic implications

The southernmost segment of the Andes of southern Patagonia and Tierra del Fuego forms a ～ 700 km long orogenic re-entrant with an interlimb angle of ～ 90° known as Patagonian orocline. No reliable paleomagnetic evidence has been gathered so far to assess whether this great orogenic bend is a primary arc formed over an articulated paleomargin, or is due to bending of a previously less curved (or rectilinear) chain. Here we report on an extensive paleomagnetic and anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) study carried out on 22 sites (298 oriented cores), predominantly sampled in Eocene marine clays from the external Magallanes belt of Tierra del Fuego. Five sites (out of six giving reliable paleomagnetic results) containing magnetite and subordinate iron sulphides yield a positive fold test at the 99% significance level, and document no significant rotation since ～ 50 Ma. Thus, the Patagonian orocline is either a primary bend, or an orocline formed after Cretaceous–earliest Tertiary rotations. Our data imply that the opening of the Drake Passage between South America and Antarctica (probably causing the onset of Antarctica glaciation and global climate cooling), was definitely not related to the formation of the Patagonian orocline, but was likely the sole consequence of the 32 ± 2 Ma Scotia plate spreading. Well-defined magnetic lineations gathered at 18 sites from the Magallanes belt are sub-parallel to (mostly E–W) local fold axes, while they trend randomly at two sites from the Magallanes foreland. Our and previous AMS data consistently show that the Fuegian Andes were characterized by a N–S compression and northward displacing fold–thrust sheets during Eocene–early Miocene times (50–20 Ma), an unexpected kinematics considering coeval South America–Antarctica relative motion. Both paleomagnetic and AMS data suggest no significant influence from the E–W left-lateral Magallanes–Fagnano strike–slip fault system (MFFS), running a few kilometres south of our sampling sites. We thus speculate that strike–slip fault offset in the Fuegian Andes may range in the lower bound values (～ 20 km) among those proposed so far. In any case our data exclude any influence of strike–slip tectonics on the genesis of the great orogenic bend called Patagonian orocline.     

New insights in the geodynamics of the Lipari–Vulcano area (Aeolian Archipelago,southern Italy) from geological,geodetic and seismological data

Geological, geodetic and seismological data have been analyzed in order to frame the Lipari–Vulcano complex (Aeolian archipelago, southern Italy) into the geodynamic context of the southeastern Tyrrhenian Sea. It is located at the northern end of a major NNW–SSE trending right-lateral strike-slip fault system named “Aeolian–Tindari–Letojanni” which has been interpreted as a lithospheric discontinuity extending from the Aeolian Islands to the Ionian coast of Sicily and separating two different tectonic domains: a contractional one to the west and an extensional one to the north-east. Structural field data consist of structural measurements performed on well-exposed fault planes and fractures. The mesostructures are mostly represented by NW–SE striking normal faults with a dextral-oblique component of motion. Minor structures are represented by N–S oriented joints and tension gashes widespread over the whole analyzed area and particularly along fumarolized sectors. The analyzed seismological dataset (from 1994 to 2013) is based on earthquakes with magnitude ranging between 1.0 and 4.8. The hypocenter distribution depicts two major alignments corresponding to the NNW–SSE trending Aeolian–Tindari–Letojanni fault system and to the WNW–ESE oriented Sisifo–Alicudi fault system. GPS data analysis displays ∼3.0 mm/yr of active shortening between the two islands, with a maximum shortening rate of about 1.0 × 10⁻¹³ s⁻¹, between La Fossa Caldera and south of Vulcanello. This region is bounded to the north by an area where the maximum values of shear strain rates, of about 0.7 × 10⁻¹³ s⁻¹ are observed. This major change occurs in the area south of Vulcanello that is also characterized by a transition in the way of the vertical axis rotation. Moreover, both the islands show a clear subsidence process, as suggested by negative vertical velocities of all GPS stations which exhibit a decrease from about −15 to −7 mm/yr from north to south. New data suggest that the current kinematics of the Lipari–Vulcano complex can be framed in the tectonic context of the eastward migrating Sisifo–Alicudi fault system. This is dominated by transpressive tectonics in which contractional and minor extensional structures can coexist with strike-slip motion.     

Processing and preliminary interpretation of noisy high-resolution seismic reflection/refraction data across the active Ostler Fault zone,South Island,New Zealand

In an attempt to understand the structure of active faults as they emerge from bedrock into shallow semi-consolidated and unconsolidated sediments, we have recorded a comprehensive high-resolution seismic reflection/refraction data set across the Ostler Fault zone on the central South Island of New Zealand. This fault zone, which absorbs 1–2 mm/yr of compression associated with oblique convergence of the Pacific and Australian tectonic plates, consists of a series of surface-rupturing N–S trending, west-dipping reverse faults that offset a thick sequence of Quaternary glacial outwash and late Neogene fluvio-lacustrine sediments of the Mackenzie Basin. Our study focuses on a region of the basin where two non-overlapping fault segments are separated by a transfer zone. Deformation in this area is accommodated by offsets on multiple small faults and by folding in their hanging walls. The seismic data with source and receiver spacing of 6 and 3 m and nominal CMP fold of 60 was acquired along twelve 1.2 km long lines orthogonal to fault strike and an additional 1.6 km long tie-line parallel to fault strike. The combination of active deformation and shallow glacial outwash sediments results in particularly complicated seismic data, such that application of relatively standard processing schemes yields only poor quality images. We have designed a pre- and post-stack reflection/refraction processing scheme that focuses on minimising random and source-generated noise, determining appropriate static corrections and resolving contrasting reflection dips. Application of this processing scheme to the Ostler Fault data provides critical information on fault geometry and offset and on sedimentary structures from the surface to ～ 800 m depth. Our preliminary interpretation of one of the lines includes complex deformation structures with folding and multiple subsidiary fault splays on either side of a ～ 50° west-dipping primary fault plane.     

Determining fault slip distribution of the Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake with GPS and InSAR data using triangular dislocation elements

The reactivation of the Chelungpu fault triggered the 20 September 1999 Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake (M_w = 7.6) which caused a 100-km long surface rupture that trends north–south. We reconstruct the fault geometry using 1068 planar triangular dislocation elements that approximate more realistically the curved three-dimensional fault surface. The fault slip distribution is then determined with the observed GPS coseismic displacements as well as interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data. The results show that our smooth 3D fault slip model has improved the fit to the geodetic data by 44% compared with the previously published inversions. The slip distribution obtained both by inversion of GPS data only and by joint inversion of GPS and InSAR data indicates that notable slips occur on the sub-horizontal décollement at the depth of 6.1–8.9 km.     

GPS-derived velocity field of the Iznik-Mekece segment of the North Anatolian Fault Zone

Space-based tectonic studies on the western part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) have been conducted over two decades. After the August 17, 1999, Izmit earthquake (M_w = 7.4), this region attracted greater scientific interest, and the collected data became more valuable. The Geodesy Department of the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) at Bogazici University established three micro-geodetic networks to the east of Akyazi, east of Iznik, and west of Lake Sapanca in the eastern part of the Marmara region; GPS data have been continually collected at these locations since 1994. The NAFZ branches out in the western part of the Marmara region and extends up to the Aegean Sea. Segments of the fault passing through the Marmara Sea are considered active, and this has increased concern regarding imminent earthquakes. Conventional geodetic measurements made between 1990 and 1994 are not sufficient for monitoring small movements. However, GPS has played a very important role in detecting such deformations in the area after 1994. The Iznik network, with 10 points, is bilaterally located on the Iznik-Mekece fault. Six years of GPS data for 2004–2010 collected for the monitoring of crustal deformation showed that the Iznik-Mekece fault segment moves westward at about 22 ± 1 mm/yr with respect to the Eurasia fixed reference frame. The GPS observations show that there is no strain accumulation in the area.     

Geological,tomographic, kinematic and geodynamic constraints on the dynamics of sinking slabs

We use geodynamic models with imposed plate velocities to test the forward-modeled history of subduction based on a particular plate motion model against alternative seismic tomography models. We utilize three alternative published reference frames: a hybrid moving hotspot-palaeomagnetic, a hybrid moving hotspot-true polar wander corrected-palaeomagnetic, and a Subduction Reference Frame, a plate model including longitudinal shifts of subduction zones by matching subduction volumes imaged by P-wave tomography, to assess which model best predicts present day mantle structure compared with seismic tomography and volumetrically derived subduction history. Geodynamic modeling suggests paleo-longitudinal corrections applied to the Subduction Reference Frame result in lower mantle slab material beneath North America and East Asia accumulating up to 10–15° westward of that imaged by tomography, whereas the hybrid models develop material offset by 2–9°. However, the Subduction Reference Frame geodynamic model produces slab material beneath the Tethyan Domain coinciding with slab volumes imaged by tomography, whereas the hybrid reference frame models do not, suggesting regional paleo-longitudinal corrections are required to constrain slab locations. We use our models to test inferred slab sinking rates in the mantle focusing on well-constrained regions. We derive a globally averaged slab-sinking rate of 13 ± 3 mm/yr by combining the ages of onset and cessation of subduction from geological data and kinematic reconstructions with images of subducted slabs in the mantle. Our global average slab-sinking rate overlaps with the 15–20 mm/yr rate implied by mantle convection models using a lower mantle viscosity 100 times higher than the upper mantle.     

Water mass variation in the Mediterranean and Black Seas

The mass-induced sea level variability and the net mass transport between Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea are derived for the interval between August 2002 and July 2008 from satellite-based observations and from model data. We construct in each basin two time series representing the basin mean mass signal in terms of equivalent water height. The first series is obtained from steric-corrected altimetry while the other is deduced from GRACE data corrected for the contamination by continental hydrology. The series show a good agreement in terms of annual and inter-annual signals, which is in line with earlier works, although different model corrections influence the consistency in terms of seasonal signal and trend.In the Mediterranean Sea, we obtain the best agreement using a steric correction from the regional oceanographic model MFSTEP and a continental hydrological leakage correction derived from the global continental hydrological model WaterGAP2. The inter-annual time series show a correlation of 0.85 and a root mean square (RMS) difference of 15 mm. The two estimates have similar accuracy and their annual amplitude and phase agree within 3 mm and 23 days respectively. The GRACE-derived mass-induced sea level variability yields an annual amplitude of 27 ± 5 mm peaking in December and a trend of 5.3 ± 1.9 mm/yr, which deviates within 3 mm/yr from the altimetry-derived estimate.In the Black Sea, the series are less consistent, with lower accuracy of the GRACE-derived estimate, but still show a promising agreement considering the smaller size of the basin. The best agreement is realized choosing the corrections from WaterGAP2 and from the regional oceanographic model NEMO. The inter-annual time series have a correlation and RMS differences of 0.68 and 55 mm, their annual amplitude and phase agree within 4 mm and 6 days respectively. The GRACE-derived seawater mass signal has an annual amplitude of 32 ± 4 mm peaking in April. On inter-annual time scales, the mass-induced sea level variability is stronger than in the Mediterranean Sea, with an increase from 2003 to 2005 followed by a decrease from 2006 to 2008.Based on mass conservation, the mass-induced sea level variations, river runoff and precipitation minus evaporation are combined to derive the strait flows between the basins and with the Atlantic Ocean. At the Gibraltar strait, the net inflow varies annually with an amplitude of 52 ± 10 × 10⁻³ Sv peaking end of September (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³ s⁻¹). The inflow through the Bosphorus strait displays an annual amplitude of 13 ± 3 ×10⁻³ Sv peaking in the middle of March. Additionally, an increase of the Gibraltar net inflow (3.4 ± 0.8 × 10⁻³ Sv/yr) is detected.