Correlation of climatic events between East Asia and Norwegian Sea during last deglaciation

Using a high resolution¹⁴C chronology, β¹³C values and organic carbon content, from loess/paleosol and peat profiles in China, we can demonstrate century scale warm-cold East Asian monsoon paleoclimatic fluctuation events and significant precipitation variability within the last deglaciation. The major climatic events recognized are the Bolling (1 300-12 500 a B.P.), Older Dryas (12 500-11 750 a B. P.), Allerod (11 750-11 200 aB.P.) and Younger Dryas (11 200-10 000 aB.P.). The stratigraphic structure of the last deglaciation sediments is characterized by frequent changes in sedimentation phases reflecting climatic instability. These high frequency, rapid climatic events can correlate with fluctuations recorded by sea surface temperatures in the Norwegian Sea. This indicates a pale-oclimate teleconnection between polar, high latitude areas and East Asian monsoon areas through westerlies and the related atmospheric pressure system. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Foundation of Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation of U.S.A.     

A projection of future changes in summer precipitation and monsoon in East Asia

The future potential changes in precipitation and monsoon circulation in the summer in East Asia are projected using the latest generation of coupled climate models under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario (a medium emission scenario).The multi-model ensemble means show that during the period of 2010-2099,the summer precipitation in East Asia will increase and experience a prominent change around the 2040s,with a small increase (～1%) before the end of the 2040s and a large increase (～9%) afterward.This kind of two-stage evolution characteristic of precipitation change can be seen most clearly in North China,and then in South China and in the mid and lower Yangtze River Valley.In 2010-2099,the projected precipitation pattern will be dominated by a pattern of "wet East China" that explains 33.6% of EOF total variance.The corresponded time coefficient will markedly increase after the 2040s,indicating a great contribution from this mode to the enhanced precipitation across all East China.Other precipitation patterns that prevail in the current climate only contribute a small proportion to the total variance,with no prominent liner trend in the future.By the late 21st century,the monsoon circulation will be stronger in East Asia.At low level,this is due to the intensification of southwesterly airflow north of the anticyclone over the western Pacific and the SCS,and at high level,it is caused by the increased northeasterly airflow east of the anticyclone over South Asia.The enhanced monsoon circulation will also experience a two-stage evolution in 2010-2099,with a prominent increase (by ～0.6 m s-1) after the 2040s.The atmospheric water vapor content over East Asia will greatly increase (by ～9%) at the end of 21st century.The water vapor transported northward into East China will be intensified and display a prominent increase around the 2040s similar to other examined variables.These indicate that the enhanced precipitation over East Asia is caused by the increases in both monsoon circulation and water vapor,which is greatly different from South Asia.Both the dynamical and thermal dynamic variables will evolve consistently in response to the global warming in East Asia,i.e.,the intensified southwesterly monsoon airflow corresponding to the increased water vapor and southwesterly moisture transport.     

Possible role of warming on Indian summer monsoon precipitation over the north-central Indian subcontinent

ABSTRACT

Broad disagreement between modelled and observed trends of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) over the north-central part of the Indian subcontinent (NCI) implies a gap in understanding of the relationship between the forcing factors and monsoonal precipitation. Although the strength of the land–sea thermal gradient (LSG) is believed to dictate monsoon intensity, its state and fate under continuous warming over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and part of the NCI (23–28°N, 80–95°E) are less explored. Precipitation (1901–2017) and temperature data (1948–2017) at different vertical heights are used to understand the impact of warming in the ISM. In NCI, surface air temperature increased by 0.1–0.2°C decade^?1, comparable to the global warming rate. The ISM precipitation prominently weakened and seasonality reduced after 1950, which is caused by a decrease in the LSG at the depth of the troposphere. Warming-induced increase in local convection over the BoB further reduced ISM precipitation over NCI.     

Variations in monsoon precipitation over southwest China during the last 1500 years and possible driving forces

Science China Earth Sciences - Understanding hydroclimatic patterns and their possible driving mechanisms during distinct climate periods over the last 1500 years—such as the Medieval Warm...     

东亚季风边缘带上的植被变化

早期的工作在全球和区域尺度上对气候与植被之间的关系进行了研究,表现在区域上存在差异. 本文集中于东亚季风边缘带上植被变化与季风季节与年际变化的关系分析,分季风区、非季风区和季风边缘区等3个区域做比较分析,结果得出季风边缘区域的植被生长对气候变化的响应较为敏感.     

东亚降水格局:季风与瞬变涡动的竞争

利用再分析资料ERA-40计算了东亚气候平均对流层水汽输送(MT)、平均气流水汽输送(MMT)、瞬变涡动水汽输送(EMT)及其散度,并同降水场进行比较分析.结果表明,季节平均水汽散度场同东亚降水分布型存在一定的配置关系,水汽辐合区对应于降水大值区,辐散区降水较少.东亚大部分地区MMT散度大于EMT,但符号相反,即MMT是MT的主要部分,决定了后者散度空间分布特征.夏季风期间,东亚MMT表示季风水汽输送,其大尺度辐合区对应于季风降水区,辐散区覆盖了西北内陆干旱区.中高纬EMT四季均为恒定向北的水汽输送,是内陆干旱区和非夏季风控制区降水水汽的主要供给者.从夏到冬EMT水汽辐合区扩大,MMT辐合区缩小,后者的散度决定了东亚干湿气候区分布.因而季风与瞬变涡动竞争形成东亚独特的降水格局.这些特征的揭示为东亚区域气候形成与变异机理研究提供了新思路.1998年夏季案例分析表明,长江、松花江和嫩江发生流域性洪涝灾害主要是大尺度夏季风水汽输送异常辐合造成,瞬变涡动贡献不大.     

Weakened East Asian summer monsoon triggers increased precipitation in Northwest China

Increased precipitation/humidity in Northwest China is an important scientific issue in the context of global climatic warming(Chen et al.,2019).The climate of ...     

多区域模式集合的东亚陆地区域的平均和极端降水未来预估

利用东亚区域联合降尺度计划(CORDEX-EA)15个区域模式的模拟结果,集合预估了高排放情景RCP8.5下东亚陆地区域平均和极端降水的未来时空变化,并量化未来预估的不确定性.结果表明：区域模式基本上能够再现东亚及各个区域平均和极端降水的多年平均分布.未来多模式集合预估的平均和极端强降水在东亚各区域多表现为增加,连续无降水日数(CDD)表现为南增北减,且变幅多随时间增大.到21世纪末期,冬季和年平均降水的增幅大值都位于中国西部(WC),冬季降水的变化在WC、蒙古(MG)、中国东北(NE)和中国华北及西北地区东部(NC)的确定性都较高,年降水的变化仅在WC和MG确定性较高.夏季降水增幅大值位于朝鲜半岛和日本(KJ),且仅在这一区域确定性较高.最大5日降水量(Rx5day)和大雨日数(R20)以增加为主且变化的空间分布较为均匀,除去中国江南及华南(SC)和KJ的R20变化,其余区域两个变量的变化确定性都较高.CDD的增幅和减幅大值分别位于SC和MG,其变化在MG、NE和SC确定性较高.

     

Evolution of the monsoon and dry climate in East Asia during late Cenozoic: A review

Climate in Eastern Asia is composed of monsoon climate in the east,arid and semi-arid climate in the north and west,and the cold and dry climate of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in the southwest.The underlying causes for the evolution of East Asian climate during late Cenozoic have long been investigated and debated,particularly with regards to the role played by the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau uplift and the global cooling.In this paper,we reviewed major research developments in this area,and summarized the important results.Based on a synthesis of data,we propose that the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau uplift alone cannot fully explain the formation of monsoon and arid climates in Eastern Asia during the past 22–25 Ma.Other factors such as the global ice volume and high-latitude temperature changes have also played a vital role.Moreover,atmospheric CO2changes may have modulated the monsoon and dry climate changes by affecting the location of the inter-tropical convergence zone(ITCZ),which controls the monsoon precipitation zone and the track of the East Asian winter monsoon during late Cenozoic.The integration of high-resolution geological record and numerical paleoclimate modeling could make new contributions to understanding the climate evolution and variation in eastern Asia in future studies.It could facilitate the investigation of the regional differences in East Asian environmental changes and the asynchronous nature between the uplift of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and their climatic effects.These would be the keys to understanding underlying driving forces for the evolution of the East Asian climate.     

Monsoonal precipitation variation in the East Asia since A.D. 1840

Three tree-ring rainfall reconstructions from China and Korea are used in this paper to investigate the East Asian summer monsoon-related precipitation variation over the past 160 years. Statistically, there is no linear correlation on a year-by-year basis between Chinese and Korean monsoon rainfall, but region-wide synchronous variation on a decadal-scale was observed. More rainfall intervals were 1860–1890, 1910–1925, and 1940–1960, and dry or even drought periods were 1890–1910, 1925–1940, and 1960–present. Reconstructions also display that the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation suddenly changed from more into less around mid-1920. These tree-ring precipitation records were also confirmed by Chinese historical dryness/wetness index and Korean historical rain gauge data.     

东亚地磁场的Taylor多项式模型

根据我国国家自然科学基金委员会和俄罗斯科学院的国际合作研究计划，在国际上首次同时使用中国、前苏联和蒙古的地磁复测点资料，以及东亚地区的地磁台站资料，计算出１９８０．０年东亚地磁场的Ｔａｙｌｏｒ多项式模型，并绘制出相应的东亚地磁图，给出了确定地磁场模型最大阶数的新判据。     

Investigation of spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Iran over the last half century

Investigation of the precipitation phenomenon as one of the most important meteorological factors directly affecting access to water resources is of paramount importance. In this study, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) was calculated using annual precipitation data from 34 synoptic stations of Iran over a 50-year period (1961–2010). The trend of precipitation and the PCI index were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test after removing the effect of autocorrelation coefficients in annual and seasonal time scales. The results of zoning the studied index at annual time scale revealed that precipitation concentration follows a similar trend within two 25-year subscales. Furthermore, the PCI index in central and southern regions of the country, including the stations of Kerman, Bandarabbas, Yazd, Zahedan, Shahrekord, Birjand, Bushehr, Ahwaz, and Esfahan indicates a strong irregularity and high concentration in atmospheric precipitations. In annual time scale, none of the studied stations, had shown regular concentration (PCI < 10). Analyzing the trend of PCI index during the period of 1961–2010 witnessed an insignificant increasing (decreasing) trend in 16 (15) stations for winter season, respectively, while it faced a significant negative trend in Dezful, Saghez, and Hamedan stations. Similarly, in spring, Kerman and Ramsar stations exhibited a significant increasing trend in the PCI index, implying significant development of precipitation concentration irregularities in these two stations. In summer, Gorgan station showed a strong and significant irregularity for the PCI index and in autumn, Tabriz and Zahedan (Babolsar) stations experienced a significant increasing (decreasing) trend in the PCI index. At the annual time scale, 50 % of stations experienced an increasing trend in the PCI index. Investigating the changes in the precipitation trend also revealed that in annual time scale, about 58 % of the stations had a decreasing trend. In winter, which is the rainiest season in Iran, about 64 % of stations experienced a decreasing trend in precipitation that caused an increasing trend in PCI index. Comparing the spatial distribution of PCI index within two 25 years sub-periods indicated that the PCI index of the second sub-period increased in the spring time scale that means irregularity of precipitation distribution has been increased. But in the other seasons any significant variations were not observed. Also in the annual time scale the PCI index increased in the second sub-period because of the increasing trend of precipitation.     

中国不同纬度城市群对东亚夏季风气候影响的模拟研究

该工作利用中尺度模式(MM5),通过在中国东部不同地区设置城市扩展区,进行了东亚夏季风气候的模拟对比试验,以研究不同纬度带上城市化对东亚夏季风气候的影响,并试图了解不同气候背景(不同纬度)下大规模城市群(带)的气候效应及其差异.结果表明,城市下垫面扩展使得扩展区及其周边地区的降水减少、气温升高,总体上呈现出干、暖化的趋势.城市化的气候效应通过大气环流的传输可以传播到较广阔的范围.而且不同地域(纬度)的城市下垫面扩展对大范围气候的影响也具有明显差别,北方城市带扩展比南方城市带扩展对东亚气候的影响更为显著.长江三角洲地区对城市扩展造成的下垫面改变相对不敏感,因而在长江三角洲地区比较适合发展大规模城市群,而在中国北方地区,尤其是华北平原地区,则应该对城市化的规模进行适当控制,以减小城市化发展对东亚区域气候产生的不利影响.该工作的模拟结果还表明,城市带扩展对东亚夏季风有明显影响,但由城市扩展激发出的次级大气环流具有较强区域性的特点,因而难以将城市带扩展对夏季风强度的影响概括为整体增强或减弱.     

Tree-ring-based winter temperature reconstruction for East Asia over the past 700 years

Almost all proxy-based temperature reconstructions for East Asia have hitherto been designed to resolve summer or annual temperature variability. Reconstruction for the winter temperature is still lacking. Here, we report an annually resolved,winter-season(December-February, DJF) temperature field reconstruction for East Asia covering the period 1300-2000 CE,based on 260 temperature-sensitive tree-ring records. The most striking feature of our new reconstruction is a significant longterm warming trend since the 14th century, which is associated with winter solar insolation at mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and the global anthropogenic impact. The amplitude of reconstructed winter temperature change over the study period was ～4.7 times greater than that for summer temperature, and the rate of winter temperature increase was ～6 times as much as that of summer temperature. The results from climate model simulations were consistent with the reconstruction,showing that the amplitude and rate of temperature change in winter were greater than those in summer. The reconstruction also suggests the possible influence of volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic activities and winter solar insolation on the winter temperature variations. Our result also suggests a long-term decrease in summer-to-winter temperature difference occurred in 1625(±24 years) CE.     

Regional difference of annual precipitation and discharge variation over west China during the last 50 years

Using annual precipitation and discharge data measured in the past five decades,this paper analyzed the regional differences over west China in terms of climate and discharge variations,and investigated the relationship between the regional characteristics and the activities of South and East Asian sum-mer monsoon. Results revealed that the precipitation and discharge in the upper reaches of the Yellow River (Central West China) have a negative correlation with those in Xinjiang (northwest China) and the Yarlung Zangbo River (the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra Rive,southwest China) regions. The geographical patterns of precipitation and discharge variations are different over west China,i.e. the regional climate displays the alteration of dry-wet-dry or wet-dry-wet from north to south in west China. The negative correlation of annual discharges between Xinjiang and the upper reaches of the Yellow River is found statistically significant in the decadal scale,and that between the Yarlung Zangbo River and the upper reaches of the Yellow River is found active in the interannual scale. The regional char-acteristics indicate that the discharge/precipitation variations in the upper reaches of the Yellow River are dominated by the East Asian summer monsoon while their variations in Xinjiang are affected by both the west wind and East Asian summer monsoon.     

Effect of sub-cloud evaporation on precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains (Central Asia) under the influence of global warming

It is crucial for accurately describing the precipitation patterns and their underlying mechanisms to optimise the hydro-climatic model parameters and improve the accuracy of precipitation forecasting. Based on 212 precipitation samples collected during August 2015 to July 2016 in the mid-mountain region of the Manasi River Basin in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, we estimated the effect of sub-cloud evaporation on precipitation, analysed the factors that influence the sub-cloud evaporation, and modelled the response of sub-cloud evaporation to global warming. The mean remaining raindrop mass fraction after evaporation (f ) in this region is 94.39%. The mean deviation between d-excess (Δd ) of ground precipitation and raindrops under cloud is −4.22‰. The intensity of sub-cloud evaporation is the highest in summer. There is a significant positive correlation between f and Δd (0.72‰/%). The relative humidity and diameter of raindrops were observed to have a direct influence on the intensity of sub-cloud evaporation. The temperature was observed to influence the intensity of sub-cloud evaporation indirectly by influencing the relative humidity and diameter of raindrops. Global warming will increase the intensity of sub-cloud evaporation in the Tianshan Mountains, especially for small precipitation events.     

An examination of summer precipitation over Asia based on TRMM/TMI

A 6-year dataset of summer monthly mean precipitation derived from Tropical Precipitation Measure-ment Mission (TRMM)-Microwave Imager (TMI) was used to delineate the spatial distribution patterns of precipitation throughout Asian areas, which indicates that there are three rainfall centers located at the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea and the western equatorial Pacific Warm Pool, respectively. Based upon the analysis of horizontal distribution, the capability of TMI for characterizing terrestrial and maritime precipitation has been evaluated and compared with Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) dataset. It was found that TMI and GPCP are well consistent with each other, while a few significant differences occur at several regions over land. By investigating rainfall esti-mates over six specific locations in Asia, a systematic underestimation of TMI was demonstrated, which could be explained by the inherent deficiency within TMI terrestrial algorithm relying on scat-tering signal from ice particles in a precipitation system. A further analysis shows that the highly in-homogeneous distribution of rain gauges employed by GPCP contributes a great deal to the significant discrepancy between GPCP and TMI, especially over regions surrounding the Tibetan Plateau where rain gauges are quite scarce.     

中国平均降水和极端降水对气候变暖的响应:CMIP5模式模拟评估和预估

基于24个CMIP5全球耦合模式模拟结果,分析了中国区域年平均降水和ETCCDI强降水量(R95p)、极端强降水量(R99p)对增暖的响应.定量分析结果显示,CMIP5集合模拟的当代中国区域平均降水对增温的响应较观测偏弱,而极端降水的响应则偏强.对各子区域气温与平均降水、极端降水的关系均有一定的模拟能力,并且极端降水的模拟好于平均降水.RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,随着气温的升高,中国区域平均降水和极端降水均呈现一致增加的趋势,中国区域平均气温每升高1 ℃,平均降水增加的百分率分别为3.5%和2.4%,R95p增加百分率为11.9%和11.0%,R99p更加敏感,分别增加21.6%和22.4%.就各分区来看,当代的区域性差异较大,未来则普遍增强,并且区域性差异减小,在持续增暖背景下,中国及各分区极端降水对增暖的响应比平均降水更强,并且越强的极端降水敏感性越大.未来北方地区平均降水对增暖的响应比南方地区的要大,青藏高原和西南地区的R95p和R99p增加最显著,表明未来这些区域发生暴雨和洪涝的风险将增大.