Stability analysis of the Vallcebre translational slide,Eastern Pyrenees (Spain) by means of a GIS

The stability of the landslide of Vallcebre has been evaluated by means of a GIS. The landslide mechanism is a translational failure which has been analysed as an infinite slope. Soil strength parameters and groundwater conditions are obtained from laboratory tests and monitoring devices. Geometric parameters necessary to compute the factor of safety at each individual cell are generated by interpolation from the boreholes present in the landslide. The results have been checked with the actual behaviour of the landslide and are consistent. The comparison between a conventional slope stability analysis and the GIS-based approach gives similar results, showing the feasibility of the latter.     

基于Newmark模型的概率地震滑坡危险性模型参数优化与应用:以鲁甸地震区为例

应用概率地震危险性评价模型进行地震滑坡危险性区划,是解决潜在地震诱发滑坡危险性评价中震源不确定性与诱发滑坡时空不确定性的有效方法 .通过理论分析,结合鲁甸地震区的实际情况,对基于力学原理的Newmark滑块位移模型与概率地震滑坡危险性分析方法中的参数的不确定性问题进行了分析,将斜坡岩土体地震作用下的强度衰减效应、地震加速度地形放大效应、断层破碎带效应融合到了斜坡累积位移计算模型中,进行了模型计算参数的优化.改进后的分析模型,更好地反映了高陡斜坡地形与断层破碎带对地震滑坡灾害发育的控制作用,在鲁甸地震区域滑坡应用中,优化模型中的滑坡失稳极高风险区与实际地震滑坡分布表现出了较好的一致性,在超越概率2%的滑坡失稳概率分布中,鲁甸地区包谷垴-小河断裂、鲁甸-昭通断裂带及牛栏江河谷地带地震滑坡高-极高风险区分布面积增幅十分显著.因此,在Newmark滑块位移模型中考虑地震动参数与岩土参数动态响应规律与变量间的定量关系,对于提高区域斜坡稳定性分析的可靠性具有重要意义.     

滑带土抗剪强度参数的三维反分析

以滑面正应力修正模式的三维边坡稳定性分析方法为基础,建立了确定滑带土抗剪强度参数的三维反分析模型。先对滑坡体的稳定性进行调查评估,确定滑坡的安全系数与三维滑面的几何尺寸;然后,通过对滑面正应力进行合理假定与修正,建立了平衡方程,以强度参数为未知数,利用数学方法并结合试验、经验等手段求解出抗剪强度参数。该模型克服了二维反分析将会高估滑带土的抗剪强度参数的缺陷,而且计算过程简单,易于编程实现。两个简单算例表明,三维反分析模型可以考虑三维滑体的空间效应,得到的抗剪强度参数更真实、更符合实际情况,为滑坡治理提供参考。     

滑（边）坡稳定性评估探讨

滑（边）坡稳定性评估不仅取决于计算方法本身,更主要的取决于计算参数的选取是否合理,力学参数的选取是否合理将直接关系到所建立的滑（边）坡稳定性评估体系的成败。在根据试验结果等综合确定（潜在）滑动面的黏聚力、内摩擦角的取值区间和建立计算模型基础上,对滑（边）坡反算力学参数时不同发育条件下稳定系数的选取和稳定性计算方法的确定进行了较深入研究,提出了一整套滑（边）坡力学参数的综合选取方法和稳定性评估体系,并以某滑坡为例进行了实际工程应用。采用数值模拟和物理模拟对所建立的稳定性评估体系进行了验证,其工程适用性良好。     

Effects of soil heterogeneity on susceptibility of shallow landslides

Uncertainties in parameters of landslide susceptibility models often hinder them from providing accurate spatial and temporal predictions of landslide occurrences. Substantial contribution to the uncertainties in landslide assessment originates from spatially variable geotechnical and hydrological parameters. These input parameters may often vary significantly through space, even within the same geological deposit, and there is a need to quantify the effects of the uncertainties in these parameters. This study addresses this issue with a new three-dimensional probabilistic landslide susceptibility model. The spatial variability of the model parameters is modeled with the random field approach and coupled with the Monte Carlo method to propagate uncertainties from the model parameters to landslide predictions (i.e., factor of safety). The resulting uncertainties in landslide predictions allow the effects of spatial variability in the input parameters to be quantified. The performance of the proposed model in capturing the effect of spatial variability and predicting landslide occurrence has been compared with a conventional physical-based landslide susceptibility model that does not account for three-dimensional effects on slope stability. The results indicate that the proposed model has better performance in landslide prediction with higher accuracy and precision than the conventional model. The novelty of this study is illustrating the effects of the soil heterogeneity on the susceptibility of shallow landslides, which was made possible by the development of a three-dimensional slope stability model that was coupled with random field model and the Monte Carlo method.

     

汶川地震区文家沟泥石流成因模式分析

文家沟2008～2010年期间8次泥石流事件是在地震滑坡堆积体上因持续强降雨渗透变形溃决和后续侵蚀产生的,不同于一般的沟谷型和坡面型泥石流。文家沟滑坡堆积体上新生的泥石流沟共冲出松散固体物质总体积约180×104m3,2010年的"8.13"泥石流事件是其中规模最大的一次,冲出的松散固体物质体积约在115×104m3。文家沟泥石流的成因模式是,强降雨过程在滑坡堆积体上先期出现"渗流管涌、暂态壅水、溃决滑塌"的造沟作用模式,后期出现"溯源侵蚀、冲刷刨蚀、侧蚀坍塌、混合奔流(搅拌机)"的扩沟作用模式。2008年的"6.21"和2010年的"7.31"泥石流事件主要起因于前者,其他事件主要起因于后者。松散堆积体因排泄持续降雨入渗的能力不足而造成地下水滞留和水位升高是导致斜坡体稳定性降低的内在原因。当地下水壅高水位面达到水平时,堆积体内渗透动水压力达到最大,堆积斜坡的稳定性最低,成为堆积体表层发生滑塌溃决的临界条件。     

典型黄土丘陵区浅层黄土滑坡稳定性评价——以延安市志丹县为例

黄土丘陵地区地质环境脆弱,每到雨季极易诱发浅层黄土滑坡,对居民的生命和财产安全构成威胁也阻碍着当地经济的发展。对浅层滑坡进行稳定性评价,不仅有助于认识浅层滑坡的发生发展过程,而且对防灾减灾和地区规划建设具有十分重要的指导意义。本研究选择SINMAP模型作为评价浅层黄土滑坡的重要工具,评价了陕西省延安市志丹县黄土丘陵区浅层滑坡的稳定性,评价结果表明:1)研究区整体稳定性程度较高,在降雨量为8.6 mm、15 mm、25 mm、50 mm和100 mm时不稳定区域(包括极不稳定、不稳定和潜在不稳定)面积分别占研究区总面积的9.12%、18.93%、23.17%、30.94%和38.67%,不稳定区域的面积不超过整个研究区面积的一半,极不稳定区域的滑坡密度最大,其次为不稳定区域和潜在不稳定区域;2)随着降雨量的增大,潜在不稳定和不稳定区域的面积会逐渐扩大,极不稳定区始终位于坡度大且水流侵蚀强烈的地方,变化幅度小;3)浅层滑坡的稳定性很大程度上依赖于当地的地形条件:坡度分布为20°~51°,高程分布范围为1302~1606 m,在坡向上阴坡的发生数量多于阳坡,西向和西北向浅层滑坡最为发育;4)流域内的滑坡多属降雨诱发的山体滑坡,确定性模型SINMAP为预测这一类滑坡提供了强大的工具,不仅评估了现有的已发生的滑坡的稳定性,也预测了未来在不同降雨条件下可能发生滑坡的地区。分析结果可为预防和减轻滑坡灾害带来的损失,合理的城市规划和道路选址等提供参考。     

金沙江断裂带雄巴巨型古滑坡发育特征与形成机理

雄巴古滑坡位于西藏贡觉金沙江右岸、金沙江活动构造带内,该区地形地貌和地质构造极为复杂,多高山峡谷且河流纵坡降大,岩体结构破碎,发育一系列大型、巨型古滑坡和斜坡变形体。通过遥感解译和现场调查,认为雄巴古滑坡堆积体方量为2.6×10 ⁸~6.0×10 ⁸ m ³,为地质历史上形成的巨型古滑坡。雄巴古滑坡在平面上有滑坡滑源区和滑坡堆积区2个大的区域,其中滑坡堆积区又分为相对稳定区和前缘强变形区。滑坡体上2个深孔钻探资料揭露雄巴古滑坡主要发育2级深层蠕变滑带,其中第一级滑带埋深51 m(ZK1孔)至55 m(ZK2孔),第二级滑带埋深101 m(ZK1孔)至115 m(ZK2孔),坡体内发育的深层承压水对斜坡稳定性影响较大。雄巴古滑坡的形成受地层岩性、断裂构造、降雨和河流侵蚀等作用影响强烈,目前仍处于深层蠕滑中;其深层“锁固段”对滑坡的稳定性起关键控制作用,但在降雨-地下水渗流、河流侵蚀和地震等因素作用下,该古滑坡潜在失稳可能性较大,并有形成堰塞金沙江、溃坝、洪水等灾害链的风险。     

改进的水电边坡岩体稳定性分级法

为克服现有基于边坡岩体分级SMR法的修正分级法存在的缺陷,采用较为合理的修正模型,结合36个水电工程边坡,提出了改进的水电边坡岩体分级M-CSMR法。该法使用边坡类型系数替代开挖修正得分,同时考虑了开挖、水流冲刷及掏蚀作用的影响;将坡高对边坡岩体稳定性的影响引入分级中,给出坡高分级及评分原则;对SMR法中各指标权值重新进行调整。与岩体分级RMR法、边坡岩体分级SMR法及水电边坡岩体分级CSMR法进行了比较,结果表明M-CSMR分级法与经验评分最为接近,预测结果最好,最大绝对误差、平均绝对误差及剩余标准差均最小,因此M-CSMR是一种更优的水电边坡岩体分级方法。     

卡拉水电站上田滑坡体稳定性分析及评价研究

[摘 要] 为了分析卡拉水电站工程区某滑坡体的稳定性,通过对其滑坡成因、地形地貌、地质构造、 岩土力学参数敏感性等内在因素分析可知,滑坡体随着坡面隆起和坡内扩容加剧,在外界作用下易导致 边坡失稳破坏;其层面与节理裂隙的不良组合为边坡变形失稳提供了边界,陡倾坡内的裂隙,为地下水 的入渗创造了条件;滑坡稳定性随着岩土力学强度参数的提高而增强。通过对降雨、水位升降和地震等 外在因素的敏感性分析可知,库水位骤升骤降对滑坡的稳定性影响较大;短期降雨影响较小,但时间增 长滑坡失稳概率增加;地震峰值对滑坡稳定性影响较为明显。同时根据分析结果对滑坡体进行了工况 及荷载组合,并对各工况组合进行了稳定性计算及评价,得出水位下降时滑坡稳定性处于极限状态,在 蓄水地震工况下失稳概率较大。     

Slope stability evaluation using Back Propagation Neural Networks

The Yudonghe landslide, located in western Hubei Province of China, consists of eastern and western subunits as well as a main landslide mass with upper and lower slip surfaces. As an important landslide close to Shuibuya Dam on the Qing River, its stability is crucial, as the slide might reactivate because of a change in ground-water level caused by filling of the Shuibuya Reservoir. Existing weakness zones, growth of ruptures, the downslope attitude of geologic strata, and water infiltration, which reduced the strength of rocks and soils, have been found to be the most important factors contributing to the Yudonghe landslide. With regard to the landslide processes, it can be noted that the original large-scale slide activity was due to erosion by the Qing River, the second sliding resulted from the fall of blocks from the head scarp, and the final activity was the growth of the eastern and western secondary slides. A base failure was the main type of slope movement, however, it was obvious that more than one sliding event occurred, as inferred from striations and fractures detected by microstructure analysis of soils along the failure surfaces. Slope instability was evaluated by the method of Back Propagation Neural Networks (BPNN), in which a four-layer BPNN model with five input nodes, two hidden layers, and two output nodes was constructed using a training data set of landslide samples throughout the Qing River area. The predicted results of this analysis showed that the factor of safety was 1.10, which indicates that the Yudonghe landslide is currently in a marginally stable condition.     

吾尔塔米斯沟土质滑坡形成机理及稳定性评价

2006年7月吾尔塔米斯沟发生了一起浅层推移式滑坡,坡体处于基本稳定状态,但存在着一定的安全隐患.通过现场勘察总结了滑坡结构特征,并通过实验测试确定了滑坡的物理力学指标,建立起与滑坡主勘探线剖面对应的滑坡稳定性分析模型,运用传递系数法计算该滑坡不同工况的稳定系数,对滑坡体稳定性进行评价.上述研究结果表明,该滑坡稳定系数...     

双滑块边坡锚固系统时变可靠性分析

考虑锚杆锚固段从岩体中拔出、拉杆拉断、拉杆从注浆体中拔出等失效模式,利用系统可靠性原理和极限平衡分析方法,并基于Monte-Carlo抽样原理提出双滑块岩质边坡锚固系统破坏概率的直接求解方法。同时考虑锚杆钢筋的腐蚀与软弱滑动面抗剪强度c、? 的时变性,建立了考虑锚杆多失效模式双滑块岩质边坡锚固系统的时变可靠性模型。算例计算结果表明：软弱滑动面上的强度参数c、? 的时变性和注浆体与围岩之间的抗力时变性对锚固系统的破坏概率的影响较大,而锚杆的腐蚀对锚固系统破坏概率的影响不明显。     

A two-layer model for simulating landslide dam over mobile river beds

Landslides can block mountainous streams and form landslide dams to threaten downstream residents. It is necessary for reliable methods to predict landslide dam dynamic for risk assessment. In this paper, we present a two-layer model of Savage–Hutter type to simulate the dynamic evolution of landslide dam which take account of the erosion of river bed. The two-layer shallow water system is derived by depth-averaging the incompressible Navier–Stokes equations with the hydrostatic assumption integrated of the erosion model of river bed. The effect of excess pore water pressure is considered in the erosion process. A high order accuracy scheme based on Roe-type solver is used to discretize the present model. Finally, several numerical tests are performed to verify the stability of the algorithm and reliability of the model. Numerical results indicate that the erosion effect enhances the huge destructiveness of landslide and increase the possibility of river blocked by landslides. The impact of excess pore water pressure on erosion process should be considered.     

Groundwater flow modeling for effective implementation of landslide stability enhancement measures

This paper deals with groundwater hydrology at a prominent fracture zone landslide slope (Nuta–Yone landslides) in Japan with an objective to explore an efficient method for the application of landslide stability enhancement measures. The correlation analyses between the hydrological parameters and ground surface movement data at this landslide resulted in low correlation values indicating that the geological formation of the area is extremely complex. For the purpose of understanding the groundwater flow behavior in the landslide area, a three-dimensional transient groundwater flow model was prepared for a part of the landslide slope, where the levels of effectiveness of applied landslide stability enhancement measures (in the form of multilayered deep horizontal drains) are different, and was calibrated against the measured water surface elevations at different piezometer locations. The parameter distributions in the calibrated model and the general directions of the groundwater flow in terms of flow vectors and the results of particle tracking at the model site were interpreted to understand the reasons for variations in effectiveness of existing landslide stability enhancement measures and to find potentially better locations for the implementation of future landslide stability enhancement measures. From the modeling results, it was also understood that groundwater flow model can be effectively used in better planning and locating the landslide stability enhancement measures.     

Evaluation of slope stability by finite element method using observed displacement of landslide

To monitor land deformation in detail, we ran a large-scale field test in which an artificial landslide was induced by the application of a load to a natural slope. The measured landslide displacement was reproduced numerically through the use of finite element model analysis with a two-dimensional elasto-viscoplastic model. The analysis suggested that the strength of the sliding surface decreased as the landslide mass moved. We propose a simple method for estimating safety factors. The method involves back-calculation of shear strength parameters through reproduction of observed landslide displacements and calculating the ratio of driving force to resisting force acting on the sliding surface as modeled by joint elements. This ratio, the “stability index”, shows the same trend as safety factors calculated by a two-dimensional limit equilibrium method and a shear strength reduction method that use back-calculated shear strength parameters estimated from the limit equilibrium state. The results indicate that the stability index may be applicable to the assessment of slope stability.     

Field investigation of force and displacement within a strata slope using a real-time remote monitoring system

Research on monitoring and forecasting technology for slope stability is important for ensuring railway operation. This paper presents field investigation of force and displacement within a strata slope using a real-time remote monitoring system. Based on the interactions of the landslide body, the landslide bed and the monitoring anchor of slope, the mechanical principle of relative movement between the landslide body and the landslide bed can be found. This paper puts forward stress data obtained from a monitoring anchor as the main criterion for landslide stability. The stress will change continually inside the slope mass before the occurrence of a landslide. When the sliding force is larger than the anti-sliding force, deformation and landslides will occur; thus, the change in stress occurs before the change in displacement. In this study, the internal stress, deep displacement and surface strain of a railway slope were measured by a real-time remote-monitoring system, and a vibration metre was installed on the surface of the railway slope to study the influence of the train vibration load on the stability of the slope. The monitoring results are synthetically analysed temporally and spatially, then a railway slope forecasting model is proposed. According to the railway slope field application, the forecasting model makes successful predictions.     

Field investigations and monitoring as tools for modelling the Rossena castle landslide (Northern Appennines, Italy)

In the evening of February 28, 2004, a landslide took place in the village of Rossena (Northern Apennines, Italy), built at the base of a crag shaped in a basalt mass and wrapped in highly deformed formation of clay and shale with blocks. The failure damaged some houses, roads and fields but, fortunately, the medieval Rossena Castle, lying on the crag, was not involved at all. The goal of the study was to attain a technical and geological model of the slope to generate a landslide risk zonation, for regularity and development planning, so that the most correct action plans could be proposed. A detailed geological and geomorphological survey allowed for distinguishing the different gravitative landform of this area. It was very helpful to plan direct and indirect investigation, including borehole drillings, samplings, seismic (tomography), and electrical surveys. A monitoring system was built up immediately after the event (three wire extensometers and one inclinometer), then progressively substituted by a more complete one (two tiltmeters, two jointmeters, four inclinometers, two incremental extensometers, and two piezometers). The phenomenon can be divided in different parts. The central sector of the slope is interested by compound slides likely affecting the bedrock and can be considered, at present, the ‘engine’ of the whole instability framework. Indeed, as a consequence, in the upper portion of the slope the huge blocks in which the outer part of the crag is disjointed experienced vertical displacements and, locally, topplings. Finally, the lowest sector is affected by slow movements, probably connected to bedrock creep or rock flow, while the toe, really at the foot of the slope, by shallow landslides. This instability framework is the result of a complex evolution, starting almost more than 9,000 years ago, as testified from a radiocarbon dating. In more recent time (19th century), the Rossena landslide was also triggered by an earthquake that induced the partially breaking up of the crag, causing rock falls and cracks in the ground.     

Use of backpropagation neural network for landslide monitoring: a case study in the higher Himalaya

Static and dynamic rock slope stability analyses were performed using a numerical discontinuum modelling technique for a 700-m high rock slope in western Norway. The rock slope has been investigated by the Geological Survey of Norway (NGU), which has been carrying out rock slide studies for the county Møre and Romsdal in western Norway. The purpose of numerical modelling was to estimate the volume of the rock mass that could potentially slide under static and dynamic forces. This estimation was required to assess the run-up heights (tsunami) in a fjord that could potentially be caused by the rockslide. Three cases have been simulated for predicting the behaviour of the rock slope. First, an initial static loading is applied in the numerical model to simulate the prevailing rock mass conditions at the site. Second, saturated and weathered joint conditions are modelled by reducing the residual friction angle along the discontinuities of the rock mass. In doing so, the model simulates the effect of degradation of discontinuities in the rock slope. Third, a dynamic loading, based on peak ground accelerations expected in the area, is applied to simulate dynamic earthquake conditions.

These numerical studies have provided some useful insights into the deformation mechanisms in the rock slope. Both sliding and rotation of blocks start to occur once the residual friction angle along the discontinuities is reduced and when the region is shaken by a strong earthquake. The results indicate that, due to variations in the inclination of discontinuities, the entire slope does not become unstable and that down-slope sliding and rotation of blocks occur mainly on the top layers of the slope. Within the range of parameter values considered for this study, it is unlikely that the whole rock slope can be destabilised. The study provides an illustration of how the geo-mechanical properties of a rock mass can be integrated in a discontinuum rock slope model, which is used for predicting the behaviour of the slope under existing environmental and earthquake conditions. This model has helped not only to better understand the dynamics of the rockslide but also to estimate the potential rock volume that can become unstable when subjected to static and dynamic loads.     

A distributed hydrological–geotechnical model using satellite-derived rainfall estimates for shallow landslide prediction system at a catchment scale

This paper describes the potential applicability of a hydrological–geotechnical modeling system using satellite-based rainfall estimates for a shallow landslide prediction system. The physically based distributed model has been developed by integrating a grid-based distributed kinematic wave rainfall-runoff model with an infinite slope stability approach. The model was forced by the satellite-based near real-time half-hourly CMORPH global rainfall product prepared by NOAA-CPC. The method combines the following two model outputs necessary for identifying where and when shallow landslides may potentially occur in the catchment: (1) the time-invariant spatial distribution of areas susceptible to slope instability map, for which the river catchment is divided into stability classes according to the critical relative soil saturation; this output is designed to portray the effect of quasi-static land surface variables and soil strength properties on slope instability and (2) a produced map linked with spatiotemporally varying hydrologic properties to provide a time-varying estimate of susceptibility to slope movement in response to rainfall. The proposed hydrological model predicts the dynamic of soil saturation in each grid element. The stored water in each grid element is then used for updating the relative soil saturation and analyzing the slope stability. A grid of slope is defined to be unstable when the relative soil saturation becomes higher than the critical level and is the basis for issuing a shallow landslide warning. The method was applied to past landslides in the upper Citarum River catchment (2,310 km²), Indonesia; the resulting time-invariant landslide susceptibility map shows good agreement with the spatial patterns of documented historical landslides (1985–2008). Application of the model to two recent shallow landslides shows that the model can successfully predict the effect of rainfall movement and intensity on the spatiotemporal dynamic of hydrological variables that trigger shallow landslides. Several hours before the landslides, the model predicted unstable conditions in some grids over and near the grids at which the actual shallow landslides occurred. Overall, the results demonstrate the potential applicability of the modeling system for shallow landslide disaster predictions and warnings.