基于模糊故障树方法的脐带缆可靠性分析研究

脐带缆作为水下生产系统的“神经生命线”,是水下生产系统的关键一环,其可靠性问题越来越受到关注。影响脐带缆可靠性的事件具有随机性,目前缺乏对这些随机事件发生概率的统计,难以直接对其可靠性进行定量分析。基于模糊数理论和故障树结合的方法对脐带缆可靠性进行分析,首先获得引起脐带缆失效的40个最小割集及底事件重要度排序。其次采用基于模糊集理论的定量分析对脐带缆故障树系统中的底事件进行统计计算,得到各底事件的失效概率,最终计算出顶事件概率,并得出导致脐带缆失效的主要因素依次为护套/铠装失效、钢管失效、电缆失效,为脐带缆的安全运行提出适当的建议。     

海上消防系统风险分析探讨

平台消防系统可靠与否直接影响到平台及平台操作人员的安全。文章在采用故障树方法对平台消防系统发生失效的路径及可能性进行分析。针对有些事件的发生频率极小但危险性极大的问题,引入危险度的概念,对可靠性进行量化,即计算产生概率,同时提出了计算模糊事件概率期望值的方法。为有效评估油气生产系统的安全性,以及建立起稳定可靠的功能服务系统提供了理论依据。     

Risk assessment on a pipeline passing through a ship mooring area

It is very common that a submarine pipeline has to pass through a ship mooring area near a harbor zone in the Bohai Bay, China. The risk assessment of accidental events induced by the potential anchoring ships is carried out, which will lead to external interference with the pipeline. A procedure to calculate the probability for the anchoring activity in the ship mooring area to damage the underlying pipeline is proposed. The adopted methodology is based on the recommendations suggested by the DNV Codes. The same philosophy is also applied to estimate the damage probability that is concerned with sinking ships.     

超大型海洋浮式储油系统的风险评估

对超大型海洋浮式储油系统的危险灾害识别、失效概率计算、失效后果评估、风险准则评定和风险管理决策等几个主要步骤进行了风险分析,计算结果为在设置防坡堤情况下,储油船漂移的概率为2 217×10-6,沉没的概率为6 778×10-8,结构损坏的概率为6 300×10-7,总的经济损失为70万人民币;在未设置防波堤的情况下,储油船漂移的概率为3 167×10-3,沉没的概率为9 683×10-5,结构损坏的概率为9 000×10-4,总的经济损失为9 91亿人民币。结果表明,采取合理的措施,如在储油船系泊地点设置防波堤,以降低风险水平是十分必要的。     

A methodology for assessing the reliability of taut and slack mooring systems against instability

In the present study, a methodology for reliability assessment of slack and taut mooring systems against instability has been presented. For this purpose, first, stability analysis of slack and taut mooring systems has been carried out and instable regions are obtained using procedure available in the literature. Having known the instable region(s), methodology for reliability assessment has been proposed which is based on Monte Carlo Simulation technique. After using the proposed methodology, probabilities of failure and reliability indices has been obtained for the above systems. Some parametric studies, such as, effect of lower and upper limits of instability and effect of frequency range of generations are also included to obtain the results of practical interest.     

Long-term response analysis of FPSO mooring systems

The design of mooring systems for floating production units usually considers extreme environmental conditions as a primary design parameter. However, in the case of FPSO (Floating, Production, Storage and Offloading) units, the worst response for the mooring system may be associated with other sea state conditions due to the fact that its extreme response may be associated with a resonant period instead of an extreme wave height. The best way to deal with this problem is by performing long-term analysis in order to obtain extreme response estimates. This procedure is computationally very demanding, since many short-term environmental conditions, and their associated stochastic nonlinear time domain numerical simulations of the mooring lines, are required to obtain such estimates. A simplified approach for the long-term analysis is the environmental contour-line design approach. In this paper a Monte Carlo-based integration procedure combined with an interpolation scheme to obtain the parameters of the short-term response distribution is employed to hasten the long-term analysis. Numerical simulations are carried out for an FPSO at three different locations considering a North Sea joint probability distribution for the environmental parameters. The long-term analysis results are compared against those obtained using extreme environmental conditions and environmental contour-line methodology. These results represent the characteristic load effect for the design of mooring systems of floating units using the reliability analysis for mooring line. The results show that the long-term results are usually more critical than those obtained with the other approaches and even different mooring lines can be identified as the critical ones.     

Theoretical Model and Dynamic Analysis of Soft Yoke Mooring System

As a popular solution for mooring an FPSO （Floating Production, Storage and Offloading） permanently in shallow water, the soft yoke mooring system has been widely used in ocean oil production activities in the Bohai Bay of China. In order to simulate the interaction mechanism and conduct dynamic analysis of the soft yoke mooring system, a theoretical model with basic dynamic equations is established. A numerical iteration algorithm based on error estimation is developed to solve the equations and calculate the dynanfic response of the mooring system due to FPSO motions. Validation is conducted by wave basin experimentation. It is shown that the numerical simulation takes only a few iteration times and the final errors are small. Furthermore, the calculated results of both the static and dynamic responses agree well with those ones obtained by the model test. It indicates that the efficiency, the precision, the reliability and the validity of the developed numerical algorithm and program are rather good. It is proposed to develop a real-time monitoring system to further monitor the dynamic performance of the FPSO with a soft yoke mooring system under various real sea environments.     

基于过程分析方法的海洋工程项目承包风险评估

运用过程分析方法和风险评估技术,结合海洋工程项目现状,对项目承包进行风险分析。首先,运用事故树方法建立项目承包各阶段的风险事故树;然后,利用风险估计方法综合得到风险事件的评定等级;最后,给出风险控制措施。通过评估结果和建议,以降低海洋工程项目承包风险发生的可能性,减少事故损失。     

Fatigue reliability analysis of mooring system for fish cage

Fish cages in the open sea are exposed to cycle loads due to irregular wave climate during their service life, and thus the fatigue reliability assessment of mooring system should be conducted to ensure the safe operation. The aim of this study is to evaluate the fatigue failure probability of mooring system for fish cage. Numerical simulation of net cage in random waves is performed and the time dependent approach is applied to conduct the fatigue reliability analysis of shackle chains based on S-N curve method. The sensitivity analysis of fatigue reliability of mooring line to the uncertainty of random variables in the fatigue limit state is conducted. In addition, the system reliability for mooring system is analyzed and the effect of the initial pretension and safety factor on system reliability is investigated. The results indicate that a case without the initial pretension on anchor lines is helpful to decrease the failure probability of mooring system and the safety factor of mooring lines in the current regulation is conservative for the system reliability against fatigue damage.     

Long-term regional hurricane hazard analysis for wind and storm surge

This paper introduces a new method to estimate the long-term regional hurricane wind and storm surge hazard. The output is a relatively small set of hurricane scenarios that together represent the regional hazard. For each scenario, the method produces a hazard-consistent annual occurrence probability, and wind speeds and surge levels throughout the study area. These scenarios can be used for subsequent evacuation or loss estimation modeling. This optimization-based probabilistic scenario (OPS) method involves first simulating tens of thousands of candidate hurricane scenarios with wind speeds and approximate surge depths. A mixed-integer linear optimization is then used to select a subset of scenarios and assign hazard-consistent annual occurrence probabilities to each. Finally, a surge model is used to estimate accurate surge depths for the reduced set of events. The method considers the correlation between winds and surge depths and the spatial correlations of each; it is computationally efficient; and it makes explicit the tradeoff between the number of scenarios selected and the errors introduced by using a reduced set of events. A case study for Eastern North Carolina is presented in which a final set of 97 hurricanes provides unbiased results with errors small enough for many practical uses.     

Artificial Neural Networks for the analysis of spread⿿mooring configurations for floating production systems

This work presents the development of Artificial Neural Networks for the analysis of any arbitrarily defined spread-mooring configuration for floating production systems (FPS), considering a given scenario characterized by the water depth, metocean data, characteristics of the platform hull, and the riser layout. The methodology is applied to recent designs of deepwater semi-submersible platforms connected to a large number of risers with asymmetrical layout. In such cases, the design variables may include values for the azimuthal spacing and mooring radius varying along the corners of the platform, besides the pretension and material of the lines. The results of the case study indicated that, given any mooring configuration characterized by the combination of all these design variables, the ANNs provide fairly accurate values for the parameters of the response that are required for the design of mooring systems (typically platform offsets and line tensions).     

海洋平台抛锚方式模糊优化设计方法

海上钻井平台由于工作地点经常发生变化,工作环境条件随之改变,锚泊抛锚方式就要相应更改。本文针对深海半潜平台及其悬链线式系泊定位系统,运用平台与锚链耦合运动时域分析方法,对其水动力性能进行探索,并提出一种运用模糊算法计算平台抛锚方式优化设计方法,此方法可使钻井平台在风暴自存工况和钻井工作工况下更快更好地找到最佳抛锚方式。以一典型的半潜式钻井平台为例进行数值模拟,结果表明本文提出的方法是可行的,能够很方便地找到比较好的抛锚方式来满足相关要求。这种锚泊优化设计方法可为平台及其系泊系统设计提供参考。     

深海系泊系统动力特性研究进展

系泊系统设计是深海平台开发的关键问题之一。由于深海环境载荷和系泊材料物理特性及系缆构型影响,系泊系统分析涉及流固耦合非线性、非线性流体动力及整个系泊系统的运动稳定性。总结深海系泊系统关键理论和技术研究的前沿问题,包括系泊系统系缆建模、系泊系统耦合动力分析的理论和方法等,重点分析系泊系统非线性动力学问题的研究进展,并且提出了深海系泊系统需要深入研究的若干动力学问题。     

安装误差对半潜漂浮式风机悬链线系泊系统性能的影响

由于浅水深条件下悬链线系泊系统的性能对系泊缆长度和几何形状更为敏感,悬链线系泊系统的安装误差对其性能的影响较深水条件下的更为显著。因此首先对适用于半潜漂浮式风机的悬链线系泊系统施工进行研究,分别确定了锚安装位置误差、系泊缆预铺误差和系泊缆与漂浮式基础回接误差的来源,并根据施工条件给出了误差值。之后,以浮体动力学仿真作为手段,对系泊缆系统施工误差对其性能的影响进行基于时域仿真的量化研究。研究表明,锚安装位置误差对系泊系统性能影响不大,但系泊缆预铺和回接的误差对系泊系统性能的影响较大。系泊缆回接的误差可造成系泊缆张力平均值和标准差与设计值偏差近20%,可能对系泊系统疲劳寿命评估产生较大的影响。与系泊缆回接误差相比,系泊缆预铺误差的产生原因更为复杂,由于系泊缆预铺误差往往导致系泊缆长度增长,存在误差的系泊缆张力的各项统计值总体偏小,但可能会造成同组无误差系泊缆的张力过载。     

软刚臂系泊系统水平恢复力特性数值预报

建立软刚臂系泊系统的理论模型以及6自由度静恢复力特性计算分析的数学模型,模拟实际几何关系与力学作用机制。提出基于误差判断的变步长迭代搜索的数值逼近求解方法,以QHD32-6 FPSO软刚臂系泊系统的纵向和横向水平恢复力特性为例进行数值预报,并与国外设计公司计算结果以及模型试验结果进行比较分析。对比显示,该模型的数值计算结果符合良好,而且迭代计算次数少、收敛快、误差小,可用于海上软刚臂系泊系统静恢复力特性的预报。     

Fatigue analysis of the taut-wire mooring system applied for deep waters

Precisely predicting the fatigue life of taut-wire mooring systems has become an interesting and important problem for scientists and engineers since there are still difficulties in the inspection and maintenance of mooring lines in a rough sea environment especially in deep waters. In this paper, a comprehensive fatigue analysis is performed for a polyester taut-wire mooring system of an FPSO based on the time domain dynamic theory, rainflow cycle counting method and linear damage accumulation rule of Palmgren-Miner. Three influential factors in the fatigue analysis including the pre-tension, dynamic stiffness and T-N curve are investigated in detail. Two polyester T-N curves, one is from the DNV- OS-E301 and the other is from the API-RP-2SM, are adopted in the calculation. The fatigue analysis of the mooring system after one-line failure is also carried out. The calculation results indicate that the fatigue life is significantly affected by the T-N curve. The fatigue life decreases with increasing pre-tension, and is largely reduced if taking into account the dynamic stiffness caused by cyclic loading. The analysis also proves that one-line failure has remarkable effects on the fatigue lives of other mooring lines. The present parametric and comparative study is believed to be meaningful to further understanding of the taut-wire mooring system for deepwater applications.     

基于模糊Petri网络的FPSO单点多管缆干涉风险评估

FPSO单点系泊系统水下管缆众多,受环境等因素影响,管缆容易发生拉伸、扭转、弯曲和碰撞,引发干涉现象,危及工程安全.针对FPSO单点多管缆干涉风险,提出了基于模糊Petri网络的风险评估方法.首先,辨识风险因素来构建风险评估指标体系,并转化为模糊Petri网模型;其次,采用层次分析法确定风险因素的常权重,并引入模糊置信结构来提高专家主观评价的准确性;然后,将变权理论与模糊推理算法相结合来迭代求解库所可信度和状态矩阵;最后,以南海某内转塔式FPSO为例进行了风险评估.结果表明:该FPSO的风险评估等级为中等,环境与设备因素是影响管缆干涉的主要因素.通过风险排序结果对综合评估值较高的风险指标提出了风险控制措施,可有效降低管缆干涉风险发生的概率与危害.     

海上浮体系泊缆自动化设计方法研究

随着智能化研究成为当今科技发展的热点,结合智能优化算法的浮体系泊系统自动化设计成为一个将现代方法应用于传统工程领域并提高设计效率的研究对象。针对浮体的系泊系统,以悬链线式系泊方式为研究对象,分析得出了系泊缆与不同选材参数之间的规律,建立系泊系统自动化设计方法,选用遗传算法作为算法基础,实现方案的智能优选,进行了有效的探索研究;开发了系泊系统自动化设计的自主程序,完成了典型的单根系泊缆的单点系泊系统以及多段组成风分布式系泊系统的研究,验证了方法的可行性,为系泊系统的自动化设计这一技术问题提供了解决方法与工程的应用手段。     

Design of Mooring System for Oil Storage Vessels

The floating oil storage system has been proposed as a new facility for Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in China. Mooring is one of the key technologies to ensure the safety, reliability, and performance of the oil storage system. This paper describes the concept, analysis, design and reliability of the mooring system. For mooring system design of these oil vessels, analysis is essential of the behavior of the vessel in connection with mooring facilities of nonlinear resilience. A nonlinear mathematical model for analyzing a moored vessel is established and solved. Some results of numerical simulations are presented. Assessment of the safety regarding the mooring system in terms of failure probability is carried out. Another simulation model for calculating the failure probability of the mooring system is proposed. The design parameters that have an influence on the characteristics of the failure probability have been identified. The simulation results show that the mooring system has an annual reliab     

海底管道出露悬空环境风险的定量评价研究

海底管道是海洋油气输送的主要方式,其运行状况直接关系到海上油气田的安全和海洋生态环境的质量。本文先以海底管道出露悬空作为故障树的顶事件,分析出海洋环境中各项基本事件,构建针对海洋环境的海底管道故障树模型;再以灰色模糊识别为理论基础,量化对海底管道安全有影响的海洋环境因素,并以层次分析法对每个风险因素进行分级赋权,确定评价指标范围和权重,进而构建海洋环境条件的海底管道风险评价体系。利用该体系对平湖油气田海底管道4个区段进行环境风险评价,避免了将整段管道一同评价导致的信息均等化,评价结果不能真实反映风险等级高的区段的情况;评价结果与管道2014~2016年现场检测数据对比,两者均显示P2分区中海底管道的风险等级较高,说明了该模型具有一定的合理性和实用性。