A mixed model for earthquake interevent times

A mixed model is proposed to fit earthquake interevent time distribution. In this model, the whole distribution is constructed by mixing the distribution of clustered seismicity, with a suitable distribution of background seismicity. Namely, the fit is tested assuming a clustered seismicity component modeled by a non-homogeneous Poisson process and a background component modeled using different hypothetical models (exponential, gamma and Weibull). For southern California, Japan, and Turkey, the best fit is found when a Weibull distribution is implemented as a model for background seismicity. Our study uses earthquake random sampling method we introduced recently. It is performed here to account for space–time clustering of earthquakes at different distances from a given source and to increase the number of samples used to estimate earthquake interevent time distribution and its power law scaling. For Japan, the contribution of clustered pairs of events to the whole distribution is analyzed for different magnitude cutoffs, m _c, and different time periods. The results show that power laws are mainly produced by the dominance of correlated pairs at small and long time ranges. In particular, both power laws, observed at short and long time ranges, can be attributed to time–space clustering revealed by the standard Gardner and Knopoff’s declustering windows.     

Analysis of the Temporal Occurrence of Seismicity at Deception Island (Antarctica). A Nonlinear Approach

—Deception Island is characterized by small magnitude local events with constant energy flux and very low stress drop. To obtain information about its origin, an interevent time series of 546 events, corresponding to an observational period of two month, has been analyzed. From a statistical point of view, data satisfies a Weibull distribution and presents clustering. A rescaled range analysis reveals that data are not independent, i.e. have memory, and the correlation dimension saturates at 2.2; as a consequence, the system can be modeled as a nonlinear iterative equation with three degrees of freedom that presents chaotic behavior. Taking into account that the average interevent time is of the order of 130 minutes, too short to be only due to tectonic activity, the above results indicate that some other mechanism may coexist with the regional tectonic one. According to several geological and geophysical observations, we suggest that most of the local events may be originated by pressure waves generated by a sudden change of phase, of sea and fresh water infiltrated into the main fractures and faults and also from shallow and confined water-saturated layers.     

Short and long memory unobserved components in hydrological time series

In this paper a semiparametric approach is introduced to decompose an ARFIMA model in the long memory and short memory unobserved components. The procedure is based on the DECOMEL method which produces a statistical decomposition by minimizing the Euclidean distance between the spectrum of the aggregated series and the sum of the parametric spectra of the components. The extension to long memory stationary models is achieved defining an approximate model where the fractional operator is replaced by the ratio of two polynomials of order one. The feasibility and performance of the proposed procedure are discussed through a case study.     

Statistical Properties of the Immediate Aftershocks of the 15 October 2013 Magnitude 7.1 Earthquake in Bohol,Philippines

The aftershock records of the magnitude 7.1 earthquake that hit the island of Bohol in central Philippines on 15 October 2013 is investigated in the light of previous results for the Philippines using historical earthquakes. Statistics of interevent distances and interevent times between successive aftershocks recorded for the whole month of October 2013 show marked differences from those of historical earthquakes from two Philippine catalogues of varying periods and completeness levels. In particular, the distributions closely follow only the regimes of the historical distributions that were previously attributed to the strong spatio-temporal correlations. The results therefore suggest that these correlated regimes which emerged naturally from the analyses are strongly dominated by the clustering of aftershock events.     

Spatial variability and interdependence of rain event characteristics in the Czech Republic

Rain event characteristics are assessed in a 10‐year (1991–2000) record for 122 stations in the Czech Republic. Individual rain events are identified using the minimum interevent time (mit) concept. For each station, the optimal mit value is estimated by examining the distribution of interevent times. In addition, various mit values are considered to account for the effect of mit on rain event characteristics and their interrelationships. The interdependence between rain event characteristics and altitude, average rainfall depth, and geographic location are explored using simple linear models. Most rain event characteristics can be to some extent explained by average total rainfall or altitude, although models including the former significantly outperformed models using the latter. Significant correlation was found among several pairs of monthly mean characteristics often including event rain rate (with event duration, depth, maximum intensity, and fraction of intraevent rainless periods). Moreover, strong correlation was revealed between number of events, interevent time, event depth, and duration. In general, correlation decreases in absolute value with mit. Strong spatial correlation was found for the mean monthly interevent time and number of events. Spatial correlation was considerably smaller for other characteristics. In general, spatial dependence was smaller for larger mit values. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Testing a scaling law for the earthquake recurrence time distributions

The earthquake recurrence time distribution in a given space-time window is being studied, using earthquake catalogues from different seismic regions (Southern California, Canada, and Central Asia). The quality of the available catalogues, taking into account the completeness of the magnitude, is examined. Based on the analysis of the catalogues, it was determined that the probability densities of the earthquake recurrence times can be described by a universal gamma distribution, in which the time is normalized with the mean rate of occurrence. The results show a deviation from the gamma distribution at the short interevent times, suggesting the existence of clustering. This holds from worldwide to local scales and for quite different tectonic environments.     

Multifractal and long memory of humidity process in the Tarim River Basin

Based on the daily data of relative humidity from 23 meteorological stations in the Tarim River Basin of northwest China during the period from 1961 to 2010, this paper analyzed the multifractal and long memory property of humidity process. Main findings are as follows: (1) The processes present scaling and multifractal property. (2) The left-skewed multifractal spectrum f(α) indicates that the time series of relative humidity is predominated by small fluctuations. (3) There exists long memory with the δ ∈ (0, 0.5) in the processes, except for Kalpin and Aksu’s exhibiting non-stationary long memory with the parameter δ being 0.67 and 0.69 respectively. (4) We found that on the whole, the degree of multifractality exhibits a strengthening trend with the longitude and latitude increasing, but decreasing trend with elevation rising; For length of long memory, we investigated that on the whole, the δ values increased with the longitude and latitude increasing, which indicates that the bigger the longitude and latitude is, the longer the memory of humidity process is, but the higher the elevation is, the shorter the memory of humidity process is.     

Complexity in Sequences of Solar Flares and Earthquakes

In this paper the statistical properties of solar flares and earthquakes are compared by analyzing the energy distributions, the time series of energies and interevent times, and, above all, the distributions of interevent times per se. It is shown that the two phenomena have different statistics of scaling, and even the same phenomenon, when observed in different periods or at different locations, is characterized by different statistics that cannot be uniformly rescaled onto a single, universal curve. The results indicate apparent complexity of impulsive energy release processes, which neither follow a common behaviour nor could be attributed to a universal physical mechanism.     

Analysis of streamflow droughts using fixed and variable thresholds

Hydrological drought analysis is very important in the design of hydrotechnical projects and water resources management and planning. In this study, a methodology is proposed for the analysis of streamflow droughts using the threshold level approach. The method has been applied to Yermasoyia semiarid basin in Cyprus based on 30‐year daily discharge data. Severity was defined as the accumulated water deficit volume occurring during a drought event, in respect with a target threshold. Fixed and variable thresholds (seasonal, monthly, and daily) were employed to derive the drought characteristics. The threshold levels were determined based on the Q₅₀ percentiles of flow extracted from the corresponding flow duration curves for each threshold. The aim is to investigate the sensitivity of these thresholds in the estimation of maximum drought severities for various return periods and the derivation of severity–duration–frequency curves. The block maxima and the peaks over threshold approaches were used to perform the extreme value analysis. Three pooling procedures (moving average, interevent time criterion, and interevent time and volume criterion) were employed to remove the dependent and minor droughts. The application showed that the interevent time and volume criterion is the most unbiased pooling method. Therefore, it was selected to estimate the drought characteristics. The results of this study indicate that monthly and daily variable thresholds are able to capture abnormal drought events that occur during the whole hydrological year whereas the other two, only the severe ones. They are also more sensitive in the estimation of maximum drought severities and the derivation of the curves because they incorporate better the effect of drought durations.     

On Mechanistic Explanation of the Shape of the Universal Curve of Earthquake Recurrence Time Distributions

This paper outlines an idea for an explanation of a mechanism underlying the shape of the universal curve of the Earthquake Recurrence Time Distributions. The proposed simple stochastic cellular automaton model is reproducing the gamma distribution fit with the proper value of parameter γ characterizing the Earth’s seismicity and also imitates a deviation from the fit at short interevent times, as observed in real data.Thus the model suggests an explanation of the universal pattern of rescaled Earthquake Recurrence Time Distributions in terms of combinatorial rules for accumulation and abrupt release of seismic energy.     

Speleothems in a north Cuban cave register sea‐level changes and Pleistocene uplift rates

A flight of marine terraces along the Cuban coast records Quaternary sea‐level highstands and a general slowly uplifting trend during the Pleistocene. U/Th dating of these limestone terraces is difficult because fossil reef corals have been affected by open system conditions. Terrace ages are thus often based on geological and geomorphological observations. In contrast, the minimum age of the terraces can be constrained by dating speleothems from coastal mixing (flank margin) caves formed during past sea‐level highstands and carving the marine limestones. Speleothems in Santa Catalina Cave have ages >360 ka and show various cycles of subaerial–subaqueous corrosion and speleothem growth. This suggests that the cave was carved during the MIS 11 sea‐level highstand or earlier. Some stalagmites grew during MIS 11 through MIS 8 and were submerged twice, once at the end of MIS 11 and then during MIS 9. Phreatic overgrowths (POS) covering the speleothems suggest anchialine conditions in the cave during MIS 5e. Their altitude at 16 m above present sea level indicates a late Pleistocene uplift rate of <0.1 mm/ka, but modelling also shows uplift to have been insignificant over a long timespan during the middle Pleistocene since the cave was carved. Our study shows that some flank margin caves in the region of Matanzas are older than commonly believed (i.e. MIS 11 rather than MIS 5). These caves not only can be preserved but are good markers of interglacial sea‐level highstands, more reliable than marine abrasion surfaces. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A detailed luminescence chronology of the Lower Volga loess-palaeosol sequence at Leninsk

We present a detailed luminescence chronology of the loess-palaeosol sequences in the Lower Volga region of Russia at the Leninsk site – an important palaeogeographic archive describing the climate and environmental conditions of regressive stages of the Caspian Sea. The chronology of these sediments has received very little attention compared to the under- and overlying marine deposits. The degree of bleaching was addressed by making use of the differential resetting rates of quartz and feldspar. Our results show that the quartz OSL and feldspar pIRIR_50,290 signals were sufficiently bleached before deposition and uncertainties in bleaching have a negligible impact on the reliability of the luminescence ages. The combined quartz OSL and K-feldspar pIRIR_50,290 chronology constrains the main stages of the Northern Caspian Lowland evolution during the Late Quaternary. During early MIS 5 (130–120 ka), the northern part of the Lower Volga was covered by a shallow brackish water estuary of the warm Late Khazarian Caspian Sea transgression. After ∼122 ka, the Volga incised the Northern Caspian Lowland surface following sea-level decrease and the start of subaerial conditions at Leninsk. Loess accumulation rate increased towards the end of MIS 5 and two palaeosols of presumably MIS 5с and MIS 5a age formed, exhibiting features evidencing a dry, cold climate, influenced by long seasonal flooding by the Volga River. Cryogenesis affecting the MIS 5a soil is a regional phenomenon and is dated to between ∼70 and 90 ka. The overlying thick Atelian loess unit formed during the cold periods of MIS 4 and MIS 3. Clear erosional features at the top of the Atelian loess are constrained by luminescence to ∼35 to ∼24 ka, allowing reconstruction of erosion of 150–200 cm of loess.     

Anomalous behavior of the paleomagnetic field inferred from the skewness of anomalies 33 and 34

Marine magnetic anomalies 33 and 34, corresponding to the first two reversals following the long normal polarity interval in the Cretaceous, are anomalously skewed by 30° to 40° throughout the North and South Atlantic. This phenomenon is most likely related to some aspect of the dipole paleomagnetic field. Specifically the magnetic field at the time of anomalies 33 and 34 appears to be characterized by the following: the dipole field gradually decreases in average intensity between reversals and/or there is an increase in the frequency or duration of undetected short polarity events toward the end of long periods (>10⁶ years) of predominantly one polarity. Such long-period trends in the field are in conflict with the popular model for the generation of the earth's magnetic field that treats reversals as a Poisson process and assumes that the core has no memory greater than about 10⁴ years.     

Statistical analysis of the 2012–2013 Torreperogil–Sabiote seismic series,Spain

The study of earthquake swarms and their characteristics can improve our understanding of the transient processes that provoke seismic crises. The spatio-temporal process of the energy release is often linked with changes of statistical properties, and thus, seismicity parameters can help to reveal the underlying mechanism in time and space domains. Here, we study the Torreperogil–Sabiote 2012–2013 seismic series (southern Spain), which was relatively long lasting, and it was composed by more than 2000 events. The largest event was a magnitude 3.9 event which occurred on February 5, 2013. It caused slight damages, but it cannot explain the occurrence of the whole seismic crises which was not a typical mainshock–aftershock sequence. To shed some light on this swarm occurrence, we analyze the change of statistical properties during the evolution of the sequence, in particular, related to the magnitude and interevent time distributions. Furthermore, we fit a modified version of the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model in order to investigate changes of the background rates and the trigger potential. Our results indicate that the sequence was driven by an aseismic transient stressing rate and that the system passes after the swarm occurrence to a new forcing regime with more typical tectonic characteristics.     

Multistep inversion workflow for 3D long‐offset damped elastic waves in the Fourier domain

We present a new workflow for imaging damped three‐dimensional elastic wavefields in the Fourier domain. The workflow employs a multiscale imaging approach, in which offset lengths are laddered, where frequency content and damping of the data are changed cyclically. Thus, the inversion process is launched using short‐offset and low‐frequency data to recover the long spatial wavelength of the image at a shallow depth. Increasing frequency and offset length leads to the recovery of the fine‐scale features of the model at greater depths. For the fixed offset, we employ (in the imaging process) a few discrete frequencies with a set of Laplace damping parameters. The forward problem is solved with a finite‐difference frequency‐domain method based on a massively parallel iterative solver. The inversion code is based upon the solution of a least squares optimisation problem and is solved using a nonlinear gradient method. It is fully parallelised for distributed memory computational platforms. Our full‐waveform inversion workflow is applied to the 3D Marmousi‐2 and SEG/EAGE Salt models with long‐offset data. The maximum inverted frequencies are 6 Hz for the Marmousi model and 2 Hz for the SEG/EAGE Salt model. The detailed structures are imaged successfully up to the depth approximately equal to one‐third of the maximum offset length at a resolution consistent with the inverted frequencies.     

The rate of fluvial incision during the Late Quaternary period in the Abukuma Mountains, northeast Japan, deduced from tephrochronology

Abstract River incision into bedrock results in the decrease of burial depths, which can be of critical importance, for example, in the safe long‐term storage of high‐level radioactive waste. For the long‐term prediction of river erosion, it is essential to know the rate of incision during the Late Quaternary period. In the Abukuma Mountains on the forearc side of northeast Japan, a low‐relief peneplain that was uplifted in the Pliocene period is widely developed. Degradational fluvial terraces that are discontinuously distributed along draining rivers are scattered in the study area. The fluvial sediments were mainly transported from the summit regions as debris flows or hyperconcentrated flows. The terrace deposits are capped by a series of eolian veneers containing key tephra beds. From the oldest to the youngest, these tephra beds are the 150–125 ka Iizuna–Kamitaru tephra, the 135–125 ka Hiuchigatake–Tagashira tephra, the 120 ka Adatara–Dake tephra, the 70–80 ka Bandai–Hayama‐2 tephra, the 45 ka Numazawa–Mizunuma tephra and the 42 ka Bandai–Hayama‐1 tephra. Using tephrochronological data, the terraces are divided into three groups: higher, middle and lower. The ages of formation of the higher, middle and lower terraces are estimated to be within marine isotope stage (MIS) 6, MIS 5.4–5.2 and MIS 3 to MIS 2, respectively. The incision rate, calculated from the relative height between the terrace surface and present‐day valley floor fill, is 1.5–0.8 m/10 000 years in the elevations from 350 to 700 m. The calculated rate does not show significant differences between the higher, middle and lower terraces. All the relative heights decrease with increasing elevation, because the erosional rates of streams in the upper reaches are lower than those in downstream reaches where the discharge rates are higher. This value can be regarded as an estimate of the rate of incision in granitic mountains where there is no volcanic or distinct tectonic activity.     

Catchment response to lava damming: integrating field observation,geochronology and landscape evolution modelling

Combining field reconstruction and landscape evolution modelling can be useful to investigate the relative role of different drivers on catchment response. The Geren Catchment (~45 km²) in western Turkey is suitable for such a study, as it has been influenced by uplift, climate change and lava damming. Four Middle Pleistocene lava flows (⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar‐ dated from 310 to 175 ka) filled and dammed the Gediz River at the Gediz–Geren confluence, resulting in base‐level fluctuations of the otherwise uplift‐driven incising river. Field reconstruction and luminescence dating suggest fluvial terraces in the Geren Catchment are capped by Middle Pleistocene aggradational fills. This showed that incision of the Geren trunk stream has been delayed until the end of MIS 5. Subsequently, the catchment has responded to base‐level lowering since MIS 4 by 30 m of stepped net incision. Field reconstruction left us with uncertainty on the main drivers of terrace formation. Therefore, we used landscape evolution modelling to investigate catchment response to three scenarios of base‐level change: (i) uplift with climate change (rainfall and vegetation based on arboreal pollen); (ii) uplift, climate change and short‐lived damming events; (iii) uplift, climate and long‐lived damming events. Outputs were evaluated for erosion–aggradation evolution in trunk streams at two different distances from the catchment outlet. Climate influences erosion–aggradation activity in the catchment, although internal feedbacks influence timing and magnitude. Furthermore, lava damming events partly control if and where these climate‐driven aggradations occur. Damming thus leaves a legacy on current landscape evolution. Catchment response to long‐duration damming events corresponds best with field reconstruction and dating. The combination of climate and base level explains a significant part of the landscape evolution history of the Geren Catchment. By combining model results with fieldwork, additional conclusions on landscape evolution could be drawn. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一次冰雹过程的惯性重力波观测及数值模拟

使用高灵敏度的电容式微压波传感器对1998年4月11日16时发生在贵州省普定县的一次降冰雹过程的重力波进行观测,利用WRF（Weather Research and Forecast）中尺度模式对这一过程进行数值模拟,使用Morlet小波方法对模拟结果进行分析,得出这一过程中惯性重力波的分布和变化规律,并分析急流、地形及切变线对惯性重力波的影响.观测发现：在降冰雹前,每隔1~4小时出现一次短周期重力波阵性增强的现象.数值模拟结果显示：在低空降冰雹前几个小时有强的短周期重力波出现,其中周期较长的出现早、存在时间长,周期较短的出现晚、存在时间短;强的低空急流和风速垂直切变触发对流或湍流的发生和加强,对流或湍流又激发了80~200 min的短周期重力波;短周期重力波更容易向垂直方向传播,而长周期重力波倾向于水平方向传播.长周期重力波在降冰雹后周期有明显变短现象,随高度越加明显.由地形形成的重力波在最高山峰上空振幅最大.     

Long-term earthquake prediction in the circum-pacific convergent belt

Investigation of the time-dependent seismicity in 274 seismogenic regions of the entire continental fracture system indicates that strong shallow earthquakes in each region exhibit short as well as intermediate term time clustering (duration extending to several years) which follow a power-law time distribution. Mainshocks, however (interevent times of the order of decades), show a quasiperiodic behaviour and follow the ‘regional time and magnitude predictable seismicity model’. This model is expressed by the following formulas $$\begin{gathered} \log T_t = 0.19 M_{\min } + 0.33 M_p - 0.39 \log m_0 + q \hfill \\ M_f = 0.73 M_{\min } - 0.28 M_p + 0.40 \log m_0 + m \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ which relate the interevent time,T _t (in years), and the surface wave magnitude,M _f , of the following mainshock: with the magnitude,M _min, of the smallest mainshock considered, the magnitude,M _p , of the preceded mainshock and the moment rate,m ₀ (in dyn.cm.yr^?1), in a seismogenic region. The values of the parametersq andm vary from area to area. The basic properties of this model are described and problems related to its physical significance are discussed. The first of these relations, in combination with the hypothesis that the ratioT/T _t , whereT is the observed interevent time, follows a lognormal distribution, has been used to calculate the probability for the occurrence of the next very large mainshock (M _s ≥7.0) during the decade 1993–2002 in each of the 141 seismogenic regions in which the circum-Pacific convergent belt has been separated. The second of these relations has been used to estimate the magnitude of the expected mainshock in each of the regions.     

The upper Pleistocene loess-palaeosol sequence at solonovka on the Cis-Altai plain,west Siberia – First luminescence dating results

Loess-palaeosol deposits of the Upper Pleistocene cover an extensive territory in the south of Western Siberia. Previously, most studies of loess-palaeosol sequences were carried out on river bank sections of the Ob river around Novosibirsk and upstream of this location (Ob Loess plateau); more recently, the focus of research has shifted towards the inner part of the Cis-Altai plain. Despite a good knowledge of the structure of regional loess-palaeosol sequences, there is a considerable lack of absolute dating beyond the radiocarbon limit. However, recent high resolution luminescence dating of a key Marine Isotope Stage 5 (MIS 5) stratotype at Lozhok has identified the presence of a long hiatus in the deposit. As a result, the published ages of the main units have been underestimated, because the existing chronology is largely based on palaeosol counting. This new observation argues for an urgent re-evaluation of the accepted chronostratigraphy of Western Siberian Late Quaternary. Here we present the first luminescence data for a loess-palaeosol sequence of the Cis-Altai plain, at the Solonovka key section, using both quartz optically stimulated luminescence and feldspar post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence from 25 samples. The results show that the deposits were formed during the Late Pleistocene. The ∼1 m thick well-developed upper pedocomplex (PC1) has cryoturbation cracks filled with upper loess; this a characteristic regional benchmark for stratigraphic correlation. Two distinct hiatuses in sedimentation are found in the section: at the boundary of MIS 3/2, and after the formation of the MIS 5 Berdsk pedocomplex (PC3 and 2) until the beginning of the formation of MIS 3 deposits. The age of the thick PC3 palaeosol at the base of the section is determined as MIS 5, confirming evidence for the pronounced Kazantsevo (Eemian) interglacial in the loess-palaeosol record of Western Siberia. The results of our study emphasize the importance of understanding the palaeogeomorphological background to soil development, and the necessity of absolute chronology; we consider that the position of MIS 5 in the regional chronostratigraphic chart of South Western Siberia requires further study.