Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation: A Holistic Approach

Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of time. However, in the past, the concept of risk has been defined in a fragmentary way in many cases, according to each scientific discipline involved in its appraisal. From the perspective of this article, risk requires a multidisciplinary evaluation that takes into account not only the expected physical damage, the number and type of casualties or economic losses, but also the conditions related to social fragility and lack of resilience conditions, which favour the second order effects (indirect effects) when a hazard event strikes an urban centre. The proposed general method of urban risk evaluation is multi hazard and holistic, that is, an integrated and comprehensive approach to guide decision-making. The evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as the result of the convolution of hazard and physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure is the first step of this method. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects are also considered (soft approach). In the method here proposed, the holistic risk evaluation is based on urban risk indicators. According to this procedure, a physical risk index is obtained, for each unit of analysis, from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by factoring the former index by an impact factor or aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. Finally, the proposed method is applied in its single hazard form to the holistic seismic risk evaluation for the cities of Bogota (Colombia) and Barcelona (Spain).     

地震滑坡风险分析研究

为定量评价地震滑坡风险管理,对地震滑坡风险分析各因子取值方法进行了量化分析。针对承灾体在坡下及距离灾害体有一定距离的两种情况分别讨论。重点对一次地震过程中滑坡潜在滑移距离及扩展范围进行了计算,从而对风险分析中滑坡到达承灾体概率这一因子进行了量化。研究成果可为地震滑坡风险管理的量化分析提供理论依据,为滑坡风险管理由定性评价向定量评价发展提供参考。     

Hazards Risk Assessment Methodology for Emergency Managers: A Standardized Framework for Application

The public and the decision and policy makers who serve themtoo often have a view of community risks that is influenced and distorted significantlyby media exposure and common misconceptions. The regulators and managers, responsible forplanning and coordination of a community's mitigation, preparedness, response and recoveryefforts, are originated from a variety of disciplines and levels of education. Not only mustthese individuals deal with the misconceptions of their communities, but also frequently lacka basic methodology for the assessment of risks. The effective planning of mitigation andresponse are, however, directly dependent upon the understanding of the complexities, types,and nature of risks faced by the community, determining the susceptible areas, and conceptualizinghuman vulnerability.In this study, a review of the existing literature on both theconceptual underpinnings of risk and its assessment is attempted. A standardized framework is proposedfor use by all emergency managers, regardless of training or education. This frameworkconsists of the numerical ranking of the frequency of the event in the community, multiplied bya numerical ranking of the severity or magnitude of an event in a given community, based upon thepotential impact characteristics of a `worst-case' scenario. This figure is then multipliedby a numerical ranking indicating the Social Consequence; a combination of community perception ofrisk level and collective will to address the problem. The resulting score, which is notstrictly scientific, would permit emergency managers from a variety of backgrounds to comparelevels of community exposure to such disparate events as hazardous materials spills andtornadoes, and to set priorities for both mitigation efforts and for the acquisition of response needs,within the availability of community resources.     

Increase of Flood Risk due to Urbanisation: A Canadian Example

There has been increasing concern among the government officials who deal with emergency preparedness and natural disasters that increasing urbanisation is enhancing the risk from river flooding in urban areas. This study concerns such a risk for the City of London in the province of Ontario in Canada. It has been shown that between 1974 and 2000 there has been a considerably elevated risk from floods due to heavy urbanisation in the watershed of the Upper Thames River, of which the City of London is a part. Databases were prepared making use of satellite remote sensing technology on landuse classification and this information was integrated with meteorological and hydrological data records and analysed to obtain a quantitative estimate of the potential risk from river floods to London.     

如何规避内部审计风险

随着内部审计范围的不断扩大和延伸，内部审计的风险也在不断增加。如何规避内部审计风险已成为内部审计机构和审计人员一个无法回避的问题。保证内审机构和人员的独立性，强化内部审计人员的风险意识，提高内部审计人员自身素质，进行经常性的内控制度审计，从源头上降低审计风险。     

地下水污染场地风险管理与修复技术筛选

国际上对于地下水污染场地的控制与修复研究已经取得了许多成果,已有成功的修复实例。我国虽然起步晚,但非常重视地下水污染的防治,开展了全国范围的地下水污染调查,并进行了地下水污染的防治规划。地下水污染的控制与修复已经逐渐进入示范性研究阶段。面对地下水污染场地风险管理的不同方法,以及众多的污染修复技术,如何制定风险管理策略,如何在各种各样的修复技术中筛选合适的技术或技术组合,对于地下水污染场地的防治具有非常重要的意义。笔者分析了发达国家地下水污染风险管理策略,结合在地下水污染场地研究方面的经验,对一些主要的地下水污染修复技术进行了分析论述,提出了考虑污染物特征、场地水文地质条件的地下水污染修复技术的筛选过程和方法。     

A Waveform Similarity Approach to Investigate Seismicity Patterns

the temporal and spatial evolution of seismicity, a simple cross-correlation technique was applied to a waveform data set of western Alps earthquakes. A selection of events recorded by a reference station of the regional seismic network of North-Western Italy (IGG network) within a particular S-P range was used. The adopted method was tested on 380 events recorded in 1995, allowing for the definition of the critical parameters for an optimal identification of earthquake families.The comparison of the individuated families definition with the relevant epicentres map confirms that, on small scales, the epicentre positions of microearthquakes located by a regional network could be strongly influenced by location errors. The analysis was extended to a more complete data set of 2653 events; 1171 of them were grouped in families. The results demonstrated that our single station method is able to discriminate between closely spaced families on the basis of the position and of the radiation properties.     

Interregional and Transnational Co-operation in River Basins – Chances to Improve Flood Risk Management?

In European river basins many flood management and protection measures are planned. However, the realisation of effective but space consuming measures such as retention areas and dike relocation mostly lags far behind time schedules. The development and set-up of an interregional and transnational basin-wide co-operation structure (“flood management alliance”) is substantial to realise catchment oriented flood management. In particular, this co-operation structure must involve spatial planning. The interregional and transnational co-operation structure establishes the framework for the joint accomplishment of instruments for flood risk management which is basin-wide agreed on. One of these instruments comprises financial compensations between downstream and upstream regions which shall improve the acceptance and the realisation of measures which bear disadvantages for the regions where measures are located. Existing and planned basin-wide co-operations in large transnational European river catchments demonstrate reasonable developments towards these goals. However, further efforts have to be made to exploit the chances interregional co-operation offers for improved flood risk management.     

北京地面沉降风险评价与管理

本文在阐述地面沉降风险基本内涵基础上,以北京市为例,介绍了地面沉降风险评价的三大要素:易发性、危险性及易损性。详细说明了地面沉降风险评价的评价体系、评价指标及评价方法及过程。以地面沉降风险评价结果为基础,结合北京市目前地面沉降防治工作体系,将地面沉降风险评价与地面沉降防治管理主体相结合,提出了各个防治区的地面沉降防治工作重点。     

关于地质勘探单位管理风险防控之探讨

地质勘探单位随着勘查市场和生产规模的拓展,队伍点、线、面越来越分散,管理风险加大。从“三重一大”决策、工程施工关键环节和堵塞经营漏洞人手,加强决策、生产和经营过程的风险防控,十分必要。“三重二大”决策制度的落实,可有效防止权力的过度集中,保证决策程序合理、制度执行合法、审查监督到位;对于项目承揽、施工、结算等关键生产各环节,应以单位的最大利益为目标,树立质量第一、顾客至上、安全为天的经营理念,科学组织,保证资金安全;针对单位经营管理中的薄弱环节,应找准点位,有的放矢,抓好落实,做到政务公开。     

Major Element Chemical Heterogeneity in Geo2 Olivine Microbeam Reference Material: A Spatial Approach to Quantifying Heterogeneity in Primary Reference Materials

A 270 spot‐analysis study was conducted across a large (ca. 1200 μm × 1200 μm) chip of Geo2 olivine from a commercially available GEO Mk2 block (P and H Developments 2016 , Standards for EPMA), which revealed an 8.7% relative range in FeO abundance. Interleaved and overlapping grids of different resolutions were measured sequentially to prove spatial patterns are not due to drift or other external sources of error. Results were mapped and interpolated using commercially available geographical information system software, such that composition could be predicted according to location with high accuracy. The simple, systematic zonation pattern observed demonstrates that useful‐sized regions of acceptable homogeneity do exist for some elements. This knowledge allows a user to target individual regions of a characterised chip for use as distinct measurement standards. As analysis times decrease and data sets grow, this approach may maximise laboratory efficiency by characterising large chips and extending time between conventional block repolish and coating, particularly in those cases where the avoidance of prior beam damage is a key concern.     

A Modeling Approach to Assess the Key Factors in the Evolution of Coastal Systems: the Ebro North Hemidelta Case

One-Line shoreline evolution models have been used as a tool to understand and forecast long-term coastal evolution. However, in some coastal environments, where the influence of the wind is important, the limitations of existing models preclude its direct application to characterize its effect on sediment transport processes. To fill this knowledge gap, we have developed a shoreline evolution model that includes the effect of wind on longshore sediment transport and accounts for beach-dune sedimentary exchange due to aeolian transport. The model produces quantitative estimates of sediment transport and exchanges rates alongshore, easing the assessment of the role of different forcing agents in coastline evolution. The model was applied to the Ebro north hemidelta coast. The results are used to discuss the relative importance of the wind interaction in the evolution of different coastline stretches. Aeolian sand transport at Riumar Beach could cause coastal erosion. At the rectilinear coast, aeolian exchange does not seem to influence the shoreline evolution but the wind-current interaction does. The model provides valuable data when considering the approach to be taken regarding conservation measures. Alongshore aeolian sediment transport can be useful when designing and placing aeolian sediment traps. Conservation of the Ebro north hemidelta coast needs to focus on increasing the river sediment supply. The application herein presented can be regarded as a first step in understanding wave and wind coupling effects in shoreline evolution.     

A Fractal Interpolatory Approach to Geochemical Exploration Data Processing

Traditional interpolation procedures used for processing geochemical data treat the data as a continuous smooth surface. In this paper, we proposed a fractal spatial interpolatory procedure based on the concept of the fractional delta variance. The method is suitable for processing the geochemical data that are measured at irregularly spaced discrete points, without resort to gridding procedures. The value at each interpolatory point is a function of the fractal disturbance that is related to the fractal dimension determined from the original data set, thus enhancing reconstruction of the natural spatial distribution of element concentration. The proposed procedure has been applied to the copper geochemical data measured from irregularly-spaced floodplain sediment samples in China. We compared geochemical maps created using different interpolatory procedures, including the new fractal method, the Kriging, and the weighted average, against the actual spatial distribution of copper mineral deposits in China, and found that the new fractal method detected more of known Cu-deposits from the test area than the other two methods.     

国内外地质灾害风险管理对比及评述

在了解国内外地质灾害管理背景的基础上, 阐述了国际上开展地质灾害风险管理有代表性的国家或地区在地质灾害管理上的经验和方法, 总结了国内地质灾害风险管理的研究现状。结合实际工作, 对我国现阶段的地质灾害调查、评价、防治工作体系进行了说明。在此基础上, 将国内外地质灾害管理方法做了对比和评述, 最后对如何开展地质灾害风险管理提出了建议。     

甘肃省综合自然灾害风险管理研究

运用GIS平台对甘肃省各地区的自然灾害成灾面积（主要是洪灾和旱灾）进行了分类,以期为全省综合自然灾害风险管理工作提供科学依据. 研究结果表明：1）甘肃省各地区自然灾害成灾面积差异很大,且只有定西、庆阳、嘉峪关、甘南和金昌的自然灾害成灾面积类型随年份发展变化不大,其余地区的自然灾害成灾面积类型则随年份发展出现不同变化;2）定西和庆阳是典型的自然灾害重度灾区,天水、陇南、平凉和白银偶尔成为重度灾区或中度灾区;嘉峪关、甘南和金昌始终是自然灾害轻度灾区,张掖和临夏州偶尔是中度灾区或轻度灾区;武威和兰州变化比较大,随年份不同可以分别是轻度、中度和重度灾区;酒泉比较特别,除了2000年属于重度灾区外,其余年份都是轻度灾区.     

上海地面沉降风险评价及防治管理区建设研究

在阐述地面沉降风险基本内涵及特征基础上,以上海市为例,详细介绍了地面沉降风险评价的工作流程、评价指标及评价方法。以地面沉降风险评价结果为基础,结合上海目前地面沉降防治工作体系,将地面沉降风险管理与地面沉降防治管理主体相结合,提出了＂十二五＂期间上海地面沉降风险管理区建设方案。     

两种智能算法在求解地下水管理模型中的对比

分别将禁忌搜索和遗传算法与地下水流模型MODFLOW和地下水溶质运移模型MT3DMS相耦合,并将其应用于求解地下水资源优化管理模型。在概述两种智能算法基本原理和地下水管理模型组成的基础上,结合两个理想的应用实例,从优化结果和计算效率两个方面对禁忌搜索和遗传算法进行了对比分析。在两个实例中,禁忌搜索分别以高于遗传算法10倍和27倍的计算效率得到了减少抽水流量约160 m³/d和节约治理成本约47万元的治理方案。结果表明,禁忌搜索在求解地下水管理模型中具有较好的应用前景。     

Seismic intensity zoning and earthquake risk mapping in Iraq

The recently published Iraqi earthquake data file over the period 1905–1984 is used to derive a local I _o -M _s formula. This is then combined with a local intensity attenuation relationship to compile the observed I _o (MM) zoning map for Iraq. Earthquake risk is calculated using the log N (M _s )relation for selected design magnitudes and periods and is mapped as the (%) probability of occurrence using a 0.5 deg latitude/longitude grid system. It is observed that the intensity zones and contour distributions are highly influenced by the presence of large magnitude shocks while risk maps reveal the Tauros seismogenic zone as having a greater risk of occurrence than the Zagros zone. The compiled zoning maps are intended for the use of local practising engineers for earthquake-resistant design procedures that are currently being adopted in the country.