The transport of momentum, sensible heat, potential energy and moisture over the western Himalayas during the winter season

Summary The western Himalayas receive higher precipitation than the eastern Himalayas during the winter season (December–March). This differential pattern of winter precipitation over the Himalayas can be attributed to topography and to a higher frequency of disturbances over the western Himalayas, which result in variations in the circulation features. These circulation features, in turn, result in variations in the meridional transport of heat, momentum, potential energy, and moisture across the Himalayas due to mean and eddy motion. Significant meridional transport due to mean motion takes place in the upper troposphere at 300 hPa and 200 hPa. Transport east of 100° E dominates the transport over the western Himalayas. The eddy transport of heat, momentum, and potential energy is considerably smaller than that due to mean motion. Eddy transport magnitudes are smaller up to 500 hPa and increase rapidly aloft to 300 hPa and 200 hPa. Eddy transport over the western Himalayas is greater than over the eastern Himalayas.     

Precipitation fluctuations during the winter season from 1960 to 1995 over Emilia-Romagna, Italy

Summary ?The variability of the winter mean precipitation observed at 40 rainfall stations in Emilia-Romagna (a region in northern Italy) from 1960 to 1995 is examined. The results are compared with those obtained for the whole of Italy using records from 32 stations. Temporal variability of the time series is investigated by means of Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests, in order to estimate the presence of trends and “change points”. Before analysis the original precipitation data set have been tested to detect the inhomogeneity points, using the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT). Almost all stations situated in Emilia Romagna exhibit a significant decreasing trend in winter precipitation during the 1960–1995 period. The same characteristics are revealed, more significant in the northern and central part of the region, when the stations for all Italy are analysed. A significant downward shift in the winter precipitation is detected through the Pettitt test in Emilia Romagna, around 1980 at some stations, while the rest of the stations reveal the shift point occurrence around 1985. A significant downward shift in the winter precipitation is detected around 1985, when analysing the time series for all Italy. Spatial variability of winter precipitation is studied using the Empirical Orthogonal Function. The first pattern indicates that a common large-scale process could be responsible for the winter precipitation variability. The second EOF pattern shows an opposite sign of climate variability, which highlights the influence of relief on the precipitation regime. The time series associated with the first precipitation pattern (PC1) at both scales emphasises a significant decreasing trend and a downward shift point around 1985. The internal structure analysis of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index during the 1960–1995 period reveals a significant increasing trend and an upward shift around 1980. Strong correlation is also detected between PC1 (Emilia Romagna and at the scale of all Italy) and the NAO index. Thus, the changes detected in the winter precipitation around 1985 could be due to an intensification of the positive phase of the [NAO], especially after 1980. Received March 23, 2001; revised February 20, 2002; accepted March 3, 2002     

黔西南州越冬作物生长季气象干旱特征分析

利用黔西南州1961-2010年月降水和气温资料,通过对该区域历年降水量和蒸散量的变化,越冬作物生长季内相对湿润度指数的变化趋势以及气象干旱发生的频次等研究和分析表明：近50a来,黔西南州气象干旱的发生次数增多,强度增大;11月处于越冬作物的播种期和幼苗生长期,作物耐旱水平低,因此更应该采取积极、有效的措施加强该时段的农业抗旱。     

Sub-seasonal interannual variability associated with the excess and deficit Indian winter monsoon over the Western Himalayas

During the winter season (Dec., Jan., and Feb.; DJF) the western Himalaya (WH) receives one-third of its annual precipitation due to Indian winter monsoon (IWM). The IWM is characterized by eastward-moving synoptic weather systems called western disturbances. Seasonal interannual precipitation variability is positively correlated with monthly interannual variabilities. However, it was found that the monthly interannual variabilities differ. The interannual variability for Jan. is negatively correlated with that for Dec. and Feb. Because the entire seasonal interannual variability is in phase with the El Niño Southern Oscillation, it is interesting to investigate such contrasting behavior. Composite analysis based on extreme wet and dry seasons indicates that Dec. and Feb. precipitation variabilities have a high positive (low negative) correlation with eastern (western) equatorial Pacific warming (cooling), whereas Jan. precipitation variability exhibits negligible correlations. Seasonal mid/upper tropospheric cooling over the Himalayas enhances anomalous cyclonic circulation, which along with suppressed convection over the western equatorial Pacific, shifts the 200-hPa subtropical westerly jet southward over the Himalayas. Due to the upper tropospheric anomalous cyclonic circulation, mass transfer favors anticyclone formation at the mid/lower troposphere, which is enhanced in Jan. due to a warmer mid troposphere and hence decreases precipitation compared with Dec. and Feb. Additionally, a weakening of meridional moisture flux transport from the equatorial Indian Ocean to WH is observed in Jan. Further analysis reveals that mid-tropospheric and surface temperatures over WH also play dominant roles, acting as local forcing where the preceding month’s surface temperature controls the succeeding month’s precipitation.     

Circulation conditions of the abnormally cold winter of 2005/06 over Siberia

Circulation conditions of the abnormally cold winter of 2005/06 in Eurasia, where the intensification of meridional flow was accompanied by frequent intrusions of cold air masses into midlatitudes and their subsidence in the lower troposphere, are studied. The development of deep upper-level cyclones over Siberia and the Urals was preceded by stratospheric warming and long-term blocking processes in the troposphere over Europe and Yakutia. Strong cyclonic wind shears and intensified jet streams were observed in the high-level convergence zone over Siberia. Generally the weakened westerly flow in the substantial atmosphere thickness, a reduced number of deep cyclones in the western Arctic sector, and stratospheric warming provide high predictability of short-term climate changes in Eurasia in the wintertime.     

2007年淮河强降水时期低频环流特征

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及中国气象台站降水资料,研究了2007年夏季淮河流域强降水的低频振荡及其环流特征。结果表明,2007年夏季淮河流域强降水低频振荡的主要周期是10 25天。淮河流域降水强弱与对应低频周期存在联系,降水主要发生在低频周期的正位相时期,而在负位相时期结束或明显减弱。降水的低频变化一方面与副热带高压和南亚高压的低频变化有关,另一方面还受到中高纬度冷空气低频变化的影响。在低频周期的峰值位相,对流层高层出现的低频反气旋使南亚高压偏东,脊线偏北,并有利于西太平洋副热带高压向更西、更北的方向发展,整个对流层垂直方向上有低频的上升运动。中高纬地区出现大片正位势涡度,冷空气的低频活动显著偏强,南下侵入到中国淮河流域的冷空气较多,形成有利于淮河流域强降水的环流场。相反,在低频周期的谷值位相,对流层高层出现的低频气旋使南亚高压偏西,脊线偏南,不利于西太平洋副热带高压向更西、更北的方向发展,整个对流层垂直方向上有低频的下沉运动。高纬度冷空气的低频活动偏弱,南下侵入到中国淮河流域的冷空气也较少,最终形成不利于淮河流域强降水的环流场。     

On the relationship between climatic variables and pressure systems over Saudi Arabia in the winter season

The synoptic circulation over Saudi Arabia is complicated and frequently governed by the effect of large-scale pressure systems. In this work, we used NCEP–NCAR global data to illustrate the relationship between climatic variables and the main pressure systems that affect the weather and climate of Saudi Arabia, and also to investigate the influence of these pressure systems on surface air temperature(SAT) and rainfall over the region in the winter season. It was found that there are two primary patterns of pressure that influence the weather and climate of Saudi Arabia. The first occurs in cases of a strengthening Subtropical High(Sub H), a weakening Siberian High(Sib H), a deepening of the Icelandic Low(Ice L), or a weakening of the Sudanese Low(Sud L). During this pattern, the Sub H combines with the Sib H and an obvious increase of sea level pressure(SLP) occurs over southern European, the Mediterranean, North Africa, and the Middle East. This belt of high pressure prevents interaction between midlatitude and extratropical systems, which leads to a decrease in the SAT,relative humidity(RH) and rainfall over Saudi Arabia. The second pattern occurs in association with a weakening of the Sub H, a strengthening of the Sib H, a weakening of the Ice L, or a deepening of the Sud L. The pattern arising in this case leads to an interaction between two different air masses: the first(cold moist) air mass is associated with the Mediterranean depression travelling from west to east, while the second(warm moist) air mass is associated with the northward oscillation of the Sud L and its inverted V-shape trough. The interaction between these two air masses increases the SAT, RH and the probability of rainfall over Saudi Arabia, especially over the northwest and northeast regions.     

青藏高原冬季积雪与华南前汛期降水年际变率的联系

利用1979—2018年青藏高原(简称高原,下同)卫星积雪数据集、华南地区261站逐日降水及ERA5再分析资料,探讨了高原冬季积雪与华南前汛期降水的联系。结果表明：1)高原西部积雪与华南前汛期降水的正相关关系最为稳定,其主要影响前汛期的锋面降水,对夏季风降水的影响较小;2)华南前汛期在高原西部积雪偏多年比偏少年偏早20 d,使得前汛期降雨日数偏多,持续时间偏长,总降水量偏多,而降水强度受积雪的影响较小;3)高原积雪偏多年,积雪的冷却作用形成了低层异常反气旋环流,而东亚沿岸为“+-+”的位势高度异常,中纬度“西高东低”的环流配置有利于中高纬冷空气南侵,使得华南上空温度偏低,同时偏强偏南的西太平洋副热带高压加强了低纬地区偏南气流和水汽输送。3—4月锋面在华南北部南北摆动,4月初偏北干冷空气南侵和偏南暖湿气流的持续北推使得锋面加强,触发了前汛期的较早建立;积雪偏少年冷空气和偏南暖湿气流均较弱,华南北部锋面在4月初中断,4月中下旬华南北部锋面在偏北弱冷空气和偏南暖湿气流的共同作用下重新建立,从而华南前汛期开始偏晚。     

Assessment of turbulent kinetic energy budget and boundary layer characteristics during pre-monsoon thunderstorm season over Ranchi

In the present work turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget and boundary layer characteristics are studied for an Indian tropical station Ranchi (23°25N, 85°26E), situated over Chota Nagpur plateau. The pre-monsoon months (March-May) data for years 2008–2010 has been used in the present study which is the period of severe thunderstorm over the North East India. TKE budget terms, dissipation rates, and normalized standard deviations of wind and temperature along with skewness of temperature have been analyzed to find out characteristic difference between days of thunderstorm and days of clear weather. Present study brought out significant variations in the turbulence transportation between the days of thunderstorm activity to that of fair weather days. Site and season specific relationships normalized standard deviations of wind and temperature with atmospheric stability during pre-monsoon thunderstorm and non thunderstorm days over Ranchi are proposed. One of the important outcomes of the study is proposing site specific relationships between TKE dissipation rates with respect to atmospheric stability. These results are useful in validating the mesoscale simulations of thunderstorm activity.     

Regional variability of convection over northern India during the pre-monsoon season

In general, the overall differences in activity and timing of convection are a result of the influence of large-scale regional and synoptic flow patterns on the local mesoscale environment. The linkage between the space?Ctime variability of observed clouds and rainfall, with large-scale circulation patterns and mesoscale variables over north India during the pre-monsoon season (March to May) is the focus of this paper. We use harmonic analysis to identify the first hour of rainfall for 42 stations spread over the north Indian region during the pre-monsoon summer season (March to May), from 1980 to 2000. The variability is observed to be systematic, with large regions having similar timing for occurrence of rainfall. The stations located in the foothills of the Himalayas have a late night to early morning maximum of first hour rainfall. In the northwestern plains, the first hour of rainfall mostly starts in the early afternoon to evening hours. Further eastward, the rainfall occurs in the late evening hours. Overall, there is a gradient in the occurrence of first rainfall events from late afternoon hours in the southern sections of the north Indian region to nocturnal maxima in the higher altitude regions. Five of these stations, located in different regions of homogenous timing of rainfall occurrence, were selected to analyze in detail the variable trigger for convection. Our results indicate that convective episodes occur mostly in association with the passage of westerly troughs over this region. These upper atmosphere troughs enable moisture to flow from the surrounding oceanic regions to the dry inland regions and also provide some dynamic support to the episodes of convection. However, the actual occurrence of convection is triggered by local factors, giving rise to the mesoscale structure of the weather systems during this season. Specifically, over the plains of northwest India, convection is triggered in a moistened environment by diurnal solar heating. The late night to early morning convection over the foothills is triggered by the orography, when the moistened airflow is normally incident on the mountain slopes. Further eastward, the primary trigger for localized moist convection is downdrafts from south-eastward propagating convective systems that originate at a north?Csouth dry line over north India. These systems propagate with a speed of about 15?m?s^?1. The above results are supported by geostationary satellite brightness temperature data for March to May 2008.     

江淮梅雨期极端对流微物理特征的双偏振雷达观测研究

为研究梅雨期极端对流系统的微物理特征,利用2013—2014年江淮梅雨期间南京溧水S波段双偏振雷达探测资料和地面自动站小时降水资料,统计分析了两类极端对流降水系统的微物理特征及差异。这两类极端对流系统的定义基于地面降水强度和雷达回波顶高,分别为所有对流中降水强度最强的1%（R类:小时降水强度>46.2 mm/h）和对流发展高度最高的1%（H类:20 dBz回波顶高>14.5 km）。结果显示这两类极端对流系统仅有30%的样本重合,显示了二者之间的弱相关性。对于相同的反射率因子Z_H,R类极端对流系统的近地面差分反射率因子Z_DR通常较H类极端对流小约0.2 dB,表明R类极端对流具有较小的平均粒径。结合双偏振雷达反演的粒子大小和相态分布显示,虽然两类极端对流都表现出海洋性对流降水特征,但R类极端对流较H类极端对流的总体雨滴粒径更小而数浓度更高,导致R类极端对流系统的地面降水更强。与R类极端对流系统相比,H类极端对流系统的上升运动更强,将更多的水汽和过冷水输送到0℃层以上,有利于形成更大的冰相粒子（如霰粒子等）,并通过融化形成大雨滴。以上研究表明,梅雨期降水强度和对流发展深度并没有必然的联系,极端降水主要是中等高度的对流引起。      

江淮梅雨季亚洲阻塞高压活动统计特征

利用1960—2018年6—7月NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料和同期中国国家气象站日降水量资料,对江淮梅雨季亚洲地区阻塞高压活动地理分布、关键区阻塞高压事件活动频次、生命周期以及年际和年代际变化,及其与江淮梅雨异常的关系进行了系统分析。结果表明:（1）近59年江淮梅雨季（6—7月）,亚洲阻塞高压事件共计363次,其中心主要分布在乌拉尔山区域（40°—80°E）、贝加尔湖区域（80°—120°E）和鄂霍次克海区域（120°—160°E）3个关键区。（2）3个关键区阻塞高压事件的次数和累计日数由高到低依次为:鄂霍次克海、乌拉尔山和贝加尔湖区域。双阻塞形势以乌拉尔山-鄂霍次克海双阻居多,约占亚洲地区双阻日数的60%。阻塞事件的平均生命周期7 d左右,最长维持时间为13 d。（3）3个关键区总的及分区的阻塞次数和日数都有明显的年际变化并呈增加的趋势,其中线性增加趋势最为明显的是鄂霍次克海区域,与近59年江淮梅雨季的累计雨量增加趋势一致。（4）江淮梅雨季降雨量多寡与阻塞高压活动密切相关,梅雨正（负）异常年鄂霍次克海区域、乌拉尔山-鄂霍次克海双阻日数和次数显著偏多（偏少）,而乌拉尔山和贝加尔湖区域的阻塞高压事件与梅雨关系并不显著。（5）江淮梅雨季鄂霍次克海阻塞高压的日数多寡可能与前期海表温度异常信号ENSO有关。      

哈尔滨冬季重污染日气象特征

以2000-2009年中国环境保护部公布的空气质量日报中空气污染指数大于200的日期作为重污染日,从气象因素方面分析哈尔滨冬季重污染日发生的原因。结果表明：哈尔滨冬季重污染日20时地面风速为1级或静风;85 %的重污染日在850 hPa层以下有逆温现象,最大逆温强度出现在地面与925 hPa之间,为0.73 ℃/100 m;95 %的重污染日在850 hPa层以下有下沉运动。重污染的典型地面形势包括高压边缘型、高压中心型和低压边缘型三类。高压边缘型和高压中心型表现为大气对污染物的水平、垂直输送均为不利,而低压边缘型表现为有利于污染物的垂直输送。天气形势特征的归类,可为开展空气污染预报提供参考。     

巴楚县冬小麦生育期气温变化及其对小麦产量的影响

利用新疆巴楚气象站1984—2013年逐日气象资料,运用线性回归、趋势系数、异常度、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,分析了巴楚县多时间尺度气温的变化特征对冬小麦生长发育和产量的影响。结果表明:近30 a巴楚县冬季、春季平均气温均呈上升趋势,其中春季平均气温上升趋势显著,并于1998年发生了增暖性突变;寒冷日和酷冷日数均呈减少趋势,其中寒冷日数在1996年发生了减少性突变;稳定通过0℃界限温度的初日表现为提前、终日表现为推迟,持续日数则相应表现为增加趋势;日最高气温≥30℃日数呈增加趋势;冬小麦生长季内前期气温偏低,后期气温偏高是影响小麦产量的主要气候因子,其中抽穗、开花期的平均气温与小麦产量显著相关。     

Mechanism of high rainfall over the Indian west coast region during the monsoon season

The mechanism responsible for high rainfall over the Indian west coast region has been investigated by studying dynamical, thermodynamical and microphysical processes over the region for the monsoon season of 2009. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts wind and NCEP flux data have been used to study the large scale dynamical parameters. The moist adiabatic and multi-level inversion stratifications are found to exist during the high and low rainfall spells, respectively. In the moist adiabatic stratification regime, shallow and deep convective clouds are found coexisting. The Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement EXperiment aircraft data showed cloud updraft spectrum ranging from 1 to 10 m s^?1 having modal speed 1–2.5 m s^?1. The low updrafts rates provide sufficient time required for warm rain processes to produce rainfall from shallow clouds. The low cloud liquid water is observed above the freezing level indicating efficient warm rain process. The updrafts at the high spectrum end go above freezing level to generate ice particles produced due to mixed-phase rainfall process from deep convective clouds. With aging, deep convection gets transformed into stratiform type, which has been inferred through the vertical distribution of the large scale omega and heating fields. The stratiform heating, high latent heat flux, strong wind shear in the lower and middle tropospheric levels and low level convergence support the sustenance of convection for longer time to produce high rainfall spell. The advection of warm dry air in the middle tropospheric regions inhibits the convection and produce low rainfall spell. The mechanisms producing these spells have been summarized with the block diagram.     

冬季北半球大气活动中心的环流指数及其应用

利用1850-2009年Hadley气候中心的月平均海平面气压(Sea Level Pressure,SLP)场资料(SLP2r),按统一方法定义和计算了北半球冬季5个大气活动中心(Atmospheric Center of Action,ACA)-冰岛低压(ICelandic Low,LIC)、北大西洋高压(North Atlantic subtropical High,HNA)、蒙古高压(MOngolian High,HMO)、阿留申低压(ALeutian Low,LAL)和北太平洋高压(North Pacific subtropical High,HNP)的160 a季(月)环流指数序列,分析了它们的变化特征及其与我国气候异常的关系。结果表明:1)5个ACA冬季、1月的强度指数P均与面积指数S强正相关,二者不独立,P和位置指数λ_c、φ_c不完全独立。2)HNA、LAL在160 a间和近年来(1950-2009年)均显著增强,HMO在160 a间亦显著增强,而LIC则在近年来显著增强。3)LIC和HNA均经历了弱→强→弱→强的变化过程,强弱转折时段大致相当。HMO强度变化大致可分为三个阶段:1850-1910年偏弱,1910-1940''s中期变化较平缓,1940''s末-2009年偏强。LAL大致上经历了弱→强→弱→强的变化过程,1856-1895年、1945-1973年偏弱,1895-1945年、1973-2009年偏强。HNP的阶段性变化不明显。4)影响中国冬季气候及异常的ACA主要是HMO,在HMO强年,全国(除西南地区外)冬季气温偏低,四川和华北局部地区降水偏多;其次是位于上游的LIC、HNA,在LIC、HNA强年,我国"三北"部分地区气温偏高;而LAL、HNP对中国气候异常的影响则相对弱。     

Model sensitivity analysis study for western disturbances over the Himalayas

Western disturbances (WDs) are extratropical synoptic scale weather systems which cause significant precipitation over the Himalayas and surrounding areas during winter (December, January and February, DJF). Three intense WDs, 13–17 January 2002, 05–08 February 2002, and 11–13 February 2002, are chosen as two of the WDs are extensively studied by Hatwar et al. (Curr Sci 88:913–920, 2005) and one independent WD (Indian Meteorological Department, Delhi, Mausam 54(1):346–347, 2003) is considered. Firstly, it is planned to study model sensitivity with these WD cases, which are simulated with different combinations of cloud microphysics, planetary boundary layer and cumulus parameterization schemes in weather research and forecasting model to assess a better suite for the WD simulations. Sensitivity and error analyses carried out with different observations, show that the combination of Eta Ferrier or Eta Grid-scale cloud and precipitation microphysics scheme, Yonsei University scheme and Kain-Fritsch scheme has shown consistently lower error values. Further, the results suggest, that the model simulations of a WD capture the spatial distribution of precipitation, locations of low pressure region and the circulation patterns very well. It is observed that the WD system comprises of low pressure region in the vertical atmospheric column in form of a stationary surface low and a depression in the subtropical westerly jet moving eastwards. Further, the growth of convective cyclonic systems over the steep topographical region of the Himalayas is depicted by the increased positive vorticity and high values of CAPE, alluding to the propensity of WDs to cause orographically forced precipitation. WDs and associated precipitation show varied but significant impacts on the Indian winter climate such as snow cover variation and cold wave or fog conditions along with impact on winter crop production.     

Different prediction skill for the East Asian winter monsoon in the early and late winter season

Climate Dynamics - The prediction skill for the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) in early (November–December, ND) and late winter (January–February, JF) is investigated based on the...