A framework for resolving the transboundary water allocation conflict conundrum

This paper describes a methodology for resolving transboundary water disputes that arise when people/states/nations sharing a resource that crosses legal/political jurisdictions disagree about the use of the resource. Laws and treaties written in an attempt to settle disputes are frequently neither enforced nor effective, and disagreements continue. Crises, arising through resource overuse or shortages, worsen the conflict and typically result in further discord, lawsuits, depletion of the resource, and even open-armed hostility. Many water management experts call for either private/market-based or state/command-and-control resource management systems, but these eventually break down during crisis. The crises therefore necessitate the adoption of a more effective institutional arrangement to address and resolve present and future problems. A better alternative to management by private or state entities and the resolution of conflicts by the mere application of law is a cooperative approach. The Rowland-Ostrom Framework, introduced in this paper, incorporates Ostrom's eight design principles for sustainable common pool resource management within the context of crisis that involves an urgent threat to the quantity or quality of a resource such as water, as described by the author. This paper demonstrates that although established 15 years ago, Ostrom's design principles remain applicable today for effective, sustainable transboundary water management, and the Rowland-Ostrom Framework is a model for the equitable use of shared water resources throughout the world.     

Harmonization of strategies for the use of transboundary water resources

An approach to developing harmonized strategies of the use of transboundary water resources is considered. The principle of open management is examined in two possible situations of strategy development—either there is no agreement between governments regarding the use of a transboundary water body, or the existing agreement is to be revised. Perfect harmonization is attained in both variants.     

A robust risk analysis method for water resources allocation under uncertainty

A robust risk analysis method (RRAM) is developed for water resource decision making under uncertainty. This method incorporates interval-parameter programming and robust optimization within a stochastic programming framework. In the RRAM formulation, penalties are exercised with the recourse against any infeasibility, and robustness measures are introduced to examine the variability of the second stage costs which are above the expected levels. In this study, a number of weighting levels are considered which correspond to the robustness levels of risk control. Generally, a plan with a higher robust level would better resist from system risk. Thus, decision with a lower robust level can correspond to a higher risk of system failure. There is a tradeoff between system cost and system reliability. The RRAM is applied to a case of water resource management. The modeling results can help generate desired decision alternatives that will be particularly useful for risk-aversive decision makers in handling high-variability conditions. The results provide opportunities to managers to make decisions based on their own preferences on system stability and economy, and ensure that the management policies and plans be made with reasonable consideration of both system cost and risk.     

Quantifying temporal variations in water resources of a vulnerable middle eastern transboundary aquifer system

Freshwater resources in the arid Arabian Peninsula, especially transboundary aquifers shared by Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq, are of critical environmental and geopolitical significance. Monthly Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite‐derived gravity field solutions acquired over the expansive Saq transboundary aquifer system were analysed and spatiotemporally correlated with relevant land surface model outputs, remote sensing observations, and field data to quantify temporal variations in regional water resources and to identify the controlling factors affecting these resources. Our results show substantial GRACE‐derived terrestrial water storage (TWS) and groundwater storage (GWS) depletion rates of ?9.05 ± 0.25 mm/year (?4.84 ± 0.13 km³/year) and ?6.52 ± 0.29 mm/year (?3.49 ± 0.15 km³/year), respectively. The rapid decline is attributed to both climatic and anthropogenic factors; observed TWS depletion is partially related to a decline in regional rainfall, while GWS depletions are highly correlated with increasing groundwater extraction for irrigation and observed water level declines in regional supply wells.     

Validation of numerical ground water models used to guide decision making

Many sites of ground water contamination rely heavily on complex numerical models of flow and transport to develop closure plans. This complexity has created a need for tools and approaches that can build confidence in model predictions and provide evidence that these predictions are sufficient for decision making. Confidence building is a long-term, iterative process and the author believes that this process should be termed model validation. Model validation is a process, not an end result. That is, the process of model validation cannot ensure acceptable prediction or quality of the model. Rather, it provides an important safeguard against faulty models or inadequately developed and tested models. If model results become the basis for decision making, then the validation process provides evidence that the model is valid for making decisions (not necessarily a true representation of reality). Validation, verification, and confirmation are concepts associated with ground water numerical models that not only do not represent established and generally accepted practices, but there is not even widespread agreement on the meaning of the terms as applied to models. This paper presents a review of model validation studies that pertain to ground water flow and transport modeling. Definitions, literature debates, previously proposed validation strategies, and conferences and symposia that focused on subsurface model validation are reviewed and discussed. The review is general and focuses on site-specific, predictive ground water models used for making decisions regarding remediation activities and site closure. The aim is to provide a reasonable starting point for hydrogeologists facing model validation for ground water systems, thus saving a significant amount of time, effort, and cost. This review is also aimed at reviving the issue of model validation in the hydrogeologic community and stimulating the thinking of researchers and practitioners to develop practical and efficient tools for evaluating and refining ground water predictive models.     

Integration of surface water with groundwater resources aided by numerical modelling

ABSTRACT

The possibility was studied of a gradual extension of the irrigable area of the Tarlac Irrigation System, located in the alluvial plain of Luzon Island (Philippines). The extension would be made by integrating groundwater with surface water supplied from a reservoir already designed. Aquifer exploitation was studied adopting the criterion that groundwater is a very expensive resource to be turned to only in severe drought years. The objectives of the study were twofold: (a) planning the distribution of the wells (to be drilled during the various stages of the irrigation system development) so as to minimize the pumping cost; (b) establishing a policy for the well management in conjunction with the reservoir operation. Different schemes of the combined system management were analysed on the basis of the climatic and hydrological regime over the period 1950–1972. For this period the monthly water requirements for the different crops and the monthly values of aquifer recharge were computed. The economic analyses were performed using present prices of agricultural products and power together with several different hypotheses about future prices. A finite element model of the semiconfined aquifer was postulated and calibrated; the importance of the return flow from irrigation was also tested. Simulations of exploitation schemes provided a detailed forecast of the aquifer response to the irrigation demands.     

A numerical method to calculate the electromagnetic field of a horizontal current dipole

Summary A computer program is described to calculate the field of an oscillating current dipole over a horizontally stratified medium for the quasi-static case. Multi-layer master curves for frequency sounding can be calculated with this program. Examples of these curves are presented.Contribution No. 90 of the Geophysical Institute, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zürich.     

一种通过地形指数提取流域自由水蓄水容量空间分布的方法

对于分布式水文模型而言,如何获得参数的空间分布是模型应用的重点和难点问题.本文将分水源参数中的敏感参数——自由水蓄水容量为研究对象.建立地形指数与自由水蓄水容量的函数关系,以此提取流域内的自由水蓄水容量空间分布.最后利用本方法提取了陕西省陈河流域的自由水蓄水容量空间分布,并将之作为栅格型新安江模型的参数进行洪水模拟演算.应用结果表明本文提出的方法得到了理想的模拟结果.该方法以物理规律为基础能较为准确地计算出流域内自由水蓄水容量的空间分布,为分布式模型的发展奠定了坚实的基础.     

熵权决策法在地震灾害风险评价中的应用

为了更好地评价和比较城市的地震灾害风险,建立了基于熵权的新的地震灾害风险指数(EDRI)模型。在地震灾害风险指数的建立过程中,根据信息熵理论计算熵权,采用熵权与专家意见相结合的方法确定风险指数的综合权重,从而使模型权重的确定更加合理。通过算例分析,新的计算模型可以降低城市地震灾害风险指数对专家主观意见的依赖,从而使计算变得更加客观、科学。     

Determination of the maximum-depth to potential field sources by a maximum structural index method

A simple and fast determination of the limiting depth to the sources may represent a significant help to the data interpretation. To this end we explore the possibility of determining those source parameters shared by all the classes of models fitting the data. One approach is to determine the maximum depth-to-source compatible with the measured data, by using for example the well-known Bott–Smith rules. These rules involve only the knowledge of the field and its horizontal gradient maxima, and are independent from the density contrast.Thanks to the direct relationship between structural index and depth to sources we work out a simple and fast strategy to obtain the maximum depth by using the semi-automated methods, such as Euler deconvolution or depth-from-extreme-points method (DEXP).The proposed method consists in estimating the maximum depth as the one obtained for the highest allowable value of the structural index (N_max). N_max may be easily determined, since it depends only on the dimensionality of the problem (2D/3D) and on the nature of the analyzed field (e.g., gravity field or magnetic field). We tested our approach on synthetic models against the results obtained by the classical Bott–Smith formulas and the results are in fact very similar, confirming the validity of this method. However, while Bott–Smith formulas are restricted to the gravity field only, our method is applicable also to the magnetic field and to any derivative of the gravity and magnetic field. Our method yields a useful criterion to assess the source model based on the (∂f/∂x)_max/f_max ratio.The usefulness of the method in real cases is demonstrated for a salt wall in the Mississippi basin, where the estimation of the maximum depth agrees with the seismic information.     

Characterizing replenishment water,lake water and groundwater interactions by numerical modelling in arid regions: a case study of Shahu Lake

In order to maintain the scenic and eco-environmental values of a lake, we need to characterize its water interactions. Shahu Lake was used as a case study to show the interactions among replenishment water, lake water and groundwater in an arid region. Shahu Lake is located in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of northwest China and has an area of 13.96 km² and an average depth of 2.2 m. The groundwater modelling software MODFLOW was used. The analysis results show that hydraulic connectivity among replenishment water, lake water and groundwater is the crucial driving factor that affects the water level in Shahu Lake. The lake water level is highly sensitive to the volume of replenishment water. The groundwater is of great importance in balancing the water level in the lake and preventing it from drying up. It was determined that 13.8 × 10⁶ m³/yr is the optimal volume of replenishment water for Shahu Lake in order to maintain the lake level at its normal state and also to make the best use of available water resources on a long-term basis. Understanding of the water interactions can promote effective management of water resources in Shahu Lake.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR D. Hughes     

A numerical study on seismic risk assessment of historic masonry towers: a case study in San Gimignano

After a brief introduction on the research project RiSEM (Seismic Risk of Monumental Buildings), the paper discusses on the seismic assessment of historic masonry towers according to the Italian “Guidelines for the assessment and mitigation of the seismic risk of the cultural heritage” that identifies an analysis methodology based on three different levels of evaluation, according to an increased knowledge of the structure. The RiSEM project aimed at developing and testing innovative and expeditious methodologies (i.e. either without or with a minimal direct contact with the masonry building) to evaluate all the main structural features of the monumental buildings required for the assessment of their seismic safety. As a relevant case study the “Town of Fine Towers”, San Gimignano (Italy), listed under the UNESCO World Cultural Heritage Sites, was selected. The paper summarizes the analyses performed on one of the San Gimignano towers: the Coppi-Campatelli one. The seismic vulnerability of the tower was evaluated with reference to the above guidelines, and the paper reports and critically compares the results obtained for the three levels of evaluation there defined: LV1 (analysis at territorial level), LV2 (local analysis) and LV3 (global analysis).     

A comparative study of numerical approaches to risk assessment of contaminant transport

In risk analysis, a complete characterization of the concentration distribution is necessary to determine the probability of exceeding a threshold value. The most popular method for predicting concentration distribution is Monte Carlo simulation, which samples the cumulative distribution function with a large number of repeated operations. In this paper, we first review three most commonly used Monte Carlo (MC) techniques: the standard Monte Carlo, Latin Hypercube sampling, and Quasi Monte Carlo. The performance of these three MC approaches is investigated. We then apply stochastic collocation method (SCM) to risk assessment. Unlike the MC simulations, the SCM does not require a large number of simulations of flow and solute equations. In particular, the sparse grid collocation method and probabilistic collocation method are employed to represent the concentration in terms of polynomials and unknown coefficients. The sparse grid collocation method takes advantage of Lagrange interpolation polynomials while the probabilistic collocation method relies on polynomials chaos expansions. In both methods, the stochastic equations are reduced to a system of decoupled equations, which can be solved with existing solvers and whose results are used to obtain the expansion coefficients. Then the cumulative distribution function is obtained by sampling the approximate polynomials. Our synthetic examples show that among the MC methods, the Quasi Monte Carlo gives the smallest variance for the predicted threshold probability due to its superior convergence property and that the stochastic collocation method is an accurate and efficient alternative to MC simulations.     

A weighted surface-depth gradient method for the numerical integration of the 2D shallow water equations with topography

A finite volume MUSCL scheme for the numerical integration of 2D shallow water equations is presented. In the framework of the SLIC scheme, the proposed weighted surface-depth gradient method (WSDGM) computes intercell water depths through a weighted average of DGM and SGM reconstructions, in which the weight function depends on the local Froude number. This combination makes the scheme capable of performing a robust tracking of wet/dry fronts and, together with an unsplit centered discretization of the bed slope source term, of maintaining the static condition on non-flat topographies (C-property). A correction of the numerical fluxes in the computational cells with water depth smaller than a fixed tolerance enables a drastic reduction of the mass error in the presence of wetting and drying fronts. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed scheme are assessed by comparing numerical results with analytical and reference solutions of a set of test cases. Moreover, to show the capability of the numerical model on field-scale applications, the results of a dam-break scenario are presented.     

Assessment of water resources to support the development of irrigation in northwest Cambodia: a water budget approach

Water availability is the primary constraint on the improvement of food security in rural areas in northwestern Cambodia. A 4-year study was carried out in the upper Stung Sreng watershed to assess water resources. Four sub-watersheds with different land cover types, ranging in size from 1.5 to 185 km², were monitored using dedicated weather stations and rain- and streamgauges. Geophysics and observation boreholes were used to characterize aquifers. Rainwater is mostly split into evapotranspiration (annual mean of 54% rainfall) and streamflow components (49%), because groundwater recharge is low (1%). Thus, rainwater and streamflow are the main sources for irrigation development. Groundwater can be used only in specific locations for low water-demand crops. A total of 186 household ponds and three village-scale dams were built and 31 wells were installed. The household pond was determined to be the best solution for irrigation development because of its simple management.

EDITOR A. Castellarin ASSOCIATE EDITOR M. Piniewski     

Development of instability of a rock mass studied by the method of active geophysical monitoring

Results of five-year electromagnetic monitoring of a rock mass of the Tashtagol mine are presented. The introduction of the interval intensity parameter for disintegration zones is shown to be instrumental in the numerical classification of the rock mass state in terms of three gradations: stable, unstable, and intermediate. Disintegration zones of stable and unstable rock masses are shown to differ in spatial dynamics.