中等地震的时空分布和强震

基于AkioYoshida等人的研究思路 ,以大华北地区 (30°～ 4 2°N ,10 9°～ 12 5°E)为例 ,来探讨我国大陆区域强震和中等地震时空分布之间的联系。通过对大华北地区 1970年以来 12次ML≥ 6地震的空间—时间分布情况进行研究后发现 ,该区强震发生前后 15年内 ,强震周围 2 0 0km内通常都有 5级以上地震活动。根据区域构造特点等因素 ,将大华北地区近期的强震活动分成 3个区域 ,并对该区近期的地震活动作了回顾和展望。     

地震序列提取的时空耦合距离方法研究

提出一种从地震目录中以时空耦合距离分析方法为基础。识别强震的前震和余震，并形成序列目录的新方法。在动态迭代计算时空关联系灵敏与时空耦合距离过程中，定义在时空耦合距离构架中，由小于或等于截止长度的地震构成该强震的地震序列，用此方法，可以按强震逐个识别其前震余震，形成序列目录，我们用它识别处理了唐山7.8级强震的余震，并为该强震建立了序列目录。     

华北地区库仑应力演化与强震活动关系

采用更加符合长期变形和震后短期变形的Burgers流变模型,模拟了华北地区1303年以来6.5级以上地震引起的同震和震后库仑应力演化.结合华北地区历史地震期幕活动特征,分析了不同活跃期之间、同一活跃期内不同地震之间的库仑应力加卸载效应.结果表明:华北地区不同活跃期的强震主体活动区受控于历史强震的库仑应力加载作用;每个活跃期内强震活动主体区在空间上的迁移与该活跃期内首个7.5级以上地震的触发作用有关;华北地区每个活跃期内强震活动在时间上表现出的"平静期—活跃警告期—高潮期—剩余释放期"应该是区域动力加载过程的一种表现.岩石圈流变松弛效应引起的库仑应力变化对华北地区强震活动时空演化有显著的促进作用.本研究讨论了库仑应力变化在华北地区历史地震活动时空演化过程中可能扮演的角色,为探索华北地区强震活动空间迁移和韵律特征蕴含的构造动力学过程,以及与之相关的地震危险性判定提供参考依据.     

华北地区库仑应力演化与强震活动关系

采用更加符合长期变形和震后短期变形的Burgers流变模型,模拟了华北地区1303年以来6.5级以上地震引起的同震和震后库仑应力演化.结合华北地区历史地震期幕活动特征,分析了不同活跃期之间、同一活跃期内不同地震之间的库仑应力加卸载效应.结果表明：华北地区不同活跃期的强震主体活动区受控于历史强震的库仑应力加载作用;每个活跃期内强震活动主体区在空间上的迁移与该活跃期内首个7.5级以上地震的触发作用有关;华北地区每个活跃期内强震活动在时间上表现出的"平静期—活跃警告期—高潮期—剩余释放期"应该是区域动力加载过程的一种表现.岩石圈流变松弛效应引起的库仑应力变化对华北地区强震活动时空演化有显著的促进作用.本研究讨论了库仑应力变化在华北地区历史地震活动时空演化过程中可能扮演的角色,为探索华北地区强震活动空间迁移和韵律特征蕴含的构造动力学过程,以及与之相关的地震危险性判定提供参考依据.     

大陆强震危险区可拓方法综合预测应用研究

可拓学始于研究问题的不相容性，本文将它引进地震综合预报当中。通过建立强震危险区可拓方法综合预测模型，计算各类区域指标的关联函数，对华北地区、南北地震带进行全时空、有限时空扫描的应用检验，研究孕震区地震活动图像的演化特征，探索对强震危险区进行综合预测的新途径。初步结果说明该方法在对强震危险区的综合预测中有较好的应用前景。     

地震视应变场的演化与强震发生地区的关系

根据中国的中强地震资料,初步研究了地震视应变场的时空演化特征与1955 年以来31次强震事件发生地区的关系．结果表明,在1～5年左右的时间范围内,地震视应变异常区与强震事件发生地区存在相当好的对应关系．应用地震视应变异常区预测强震发生地区的M值为0.458,预测强震发生地区的经验概率为0.625,具有比较好的预测效果．最后对所得到的主要结果进行了初步的讨论．      

哈萨克斯坦地震短期预报系统中生物实验场的动物习性研究

作为地震短期预报系统中的环节之一，在阿拉木图周围地区建立了由一批生物实验站和生物观测点组成的生物观测网。注意力主要集中在对蛇、家鼠、鸽子、鹦鹉、鱼、晰蜴、蜘蛛等动物习性的观测研究上。结果发现，这些动物对10≤K≤13．5的地震有反应，对1992年8月19日苏萨梅尔7．4级地震的异常反应距离可达345km。对90年代4次强震前的资料研究表明，动物行为异常时间和异常量级随震级增大而增大。M≥6级地震前生物前兆的时空分布模型表明，强震前生物前兆出现的时间从1．5个月到几分钟，可分为3个阶段；距离从300km到10km，也分为3个阶段；动物异常行为从I型（烦躁、抑郁或侵犯型）变为Ⅱ型（逃避型）。文中还指出，要注意区分动物季节因素和气象变化有关的行为，地震生物学应与地球物理、形变、地区水地球化学等资料综合研究，将其用于地震的短期预报。     

华北地区强震前Ms≥5地震平静和信号震的预测意义

华北地区是一个地震多发地区,许多人研究了该地区地震活动强弱、密集-平静的韵律交替变化,提出了随时间的周期轮回过程.笔者发现,1900以来华北地区曾出现多次Ms≥5地震平静的现象,其后有相应的强震发生,而且强震的发生具有成组、成丛的连发特征.许多人也都曾注意到了华北地区强震前在震中附近发生的具有前兆特征意义的信号震,有人将其称为逼近地震,尽管各自的解释和定义有所不同,但对这种地震的前兆意义都是肯定的.信号震的发生,在时空上都有逼近主震的含义,从时间上确定了强震预测的中期时段转折,在空间上缩小了预测区域,是"源"区开始进入失稳状态的重要信息.本文从华北地区Ms≥5地震平静异常和信号震发生的时空特征出发,利用空间图像方法,探讨强震前的"场-源"关系,从而分析华北地区Ms≥5地震平静异常和信号震对强震的预测意义.     

华北地区地震活动的月相效应及其预测意义

对华北地区1970年以来ML4．0以上地震的月相效应进行了分析。结果表明,华北地区Ms5．0以上地震活动的月相效应并不明显,而是呈现较强的随机性。但在7级以上强震发生前,中等地震的发生具有较为明显的月相效应,这对7级以上强震的发生具有中期（1～3年）预测意义。未来强震可能发生在“朔望地震”分布的地区。目前,华北地区中等地震发生没有显示明显的月相效应,因此未来1～2年内华北地区发生7级以上地震的可能性较小。     

西部地区特大地震活动特征及其对大华北地震趋势的影响

在分析 190 0年以来中国大陆西部特大地震 (MS≥ 7 5 )的时空分布特征的基础上 ,进一步研究了大陆西部特大地震与大华北地区强震 (MS≥ 6 0 )活动的相关特征 ,结果表明 :地震构造对西部的强震活动显示出很强的控制力 ;大华北强震与西部特大地震具有同步活动特点 ,但滞后于西部的地震活动 ;西部特大地震第 3活跃时段已经开始 ,但大华北地区出现 6级以上地震的连发还为时尚早     

Statistical analysis on temporal-spatial correlativity within temporal doublets of strong earthquakes in North China and its vicinity

Introduction Being the important evidence of seismic trend prediction, the characters of spatial-temporal distribution of strong earthquakes can, to some extent, reflect the gestation mechanism and the migration law of strong quakes. From temporal point of view, a number of scholars consider the occurrence of strong earthquakes as the independent events, i.e., Poisson process. Based on this assumption, various predicted models are brought forward, such as stationary Poisson model, subsection …     

重复地震及其在人工探测中的潜在应用

本文研究了地球物理学家在重复地震（Doublet）研究方面取得的主要进展。针对天然重复地震数量少，区域分布有限，观测被动等问题，本文通过野外实验研究了人工震源信号的可重复性。由于人工震源位置已知，可随时主动激发，提出以此构建精确的人工重复地震，对于提高重复地震方法的可靠性与可行性具有重要意义，为进一步利用人工重复地震进行大尺度的地震探测奠定了基础。     

Analysis of Shallow and Deep Earthquake Doublets in the Fiji-Tonga-Kermadec Region

For the Fiji-Tonga-Kermadec area and for the period from January 1977 to July 2003, the Harvard CMT catalogue lists 1022 shallow, 410 intermediate and 633 deep earthquakes of moment magnitude from 4.9 to 8.0. The magnitude threshold, above which the catalogue is complete, is 5.3–5.4, and the number of earthquakes of magnitude above this value is 691 for shallow, 329 for intermediate and 476 for deep events, respectively. The proportion of earthquakes associated with doublets and multiplets against the total number of earthquakes is approximately the same in both data sets and therefore all earthquake pairs were considered regardless of their magnitude. We investigated all the pairs of earthquakes that occurred at a centroid distance of less than 40, 60 or 90 km from each other and within a time interval of 200, 300 or 450 days, depending on their magnitude. We found 208 pairs of shallow, 31 of intermediate and 92 of deep events. To ascertain whether these earthquakes in pairs are not connected by chance, the possibility of their occurrence in an uncorrelated Poissonian catalogue was considered. It was assumed that in such a catalogue the inter-event time is exponentially distributed, the earthquake magnitude follows the Gutenberg-Richter relation, and the distribution of centroid distances between the events in pairs is controlled by its non-parametric kernel estimate. The probability of the appearance of the observed proportion of doublets of shallow earthquakes in the Poissonian catalogue was found to be very low. The low probability of occurrence in a semi-random catalogue, created by randomising centroid locations in the actual data set, also indicates major importance of the distance criterion used for a doublet specification. In general, shallow earthquakes tend to form pairs at shorter distances and within shorter time intervals than deep earthquakes. Both the distance and the time intervals do not depend on the magnitude of involved events. The largest number of pairs of deep earthquakes is observed at a depth of about 600 km, and the proportion of deep events associated with doublets against the number of all events increases with depth. From comparison of the focal mechanism of earthquakes in pairs, measured by the 3-D rotation angle, it follows that deep earthquakes forming pairs have a more diverse focal mechanism than shallow events; the rotation angle for three quarters of shallow pairs and only for about one third of deep pairs is reasonably small. The azimuth between two events forming a doublet is in about 60–65% of cases close to the strike of one of nodal planes of the first or the second event.     

Changes in source and site effects compared to codaQ −1 temporal variations using microearthquakes doublets in California

We analyse spectral ratio of the coda of doublets of microearthquakes. Our purpose is to find evidence for temporal changes of the attenuation in the crust before a large magnitude earthquake. A Moving Window Cross Spectral analysis of the coda of doublets gives a plot of the spectral ratio as a function of lapse time along the seismogram, for several frequency bands (SR(T, f) plot). From a certain pattern in theSR(T, f) plot, we should infer a temporal change in coda attenuation. Several doublets recorded in Central California by the USGS network are analysed.Using events very close in time from one another, we show that the radiation pattern can be different enough to induce important variations in the spectral ratio of the first arrivals and of the coda.Another doublet exhibits a strong variation of the low frequencies for stations in the region of Hollister (California), wherePhillips andAki (1986) have noted a strong amplification of low frequencies, that they attribute to site effects on unconsolidated sediments in the fault zone. These variations could be related to slight changes in local conditions (creep, or water table).On the other hand, some doublets, in the vicinity and close in time to the August 1979 Coyote Lake Earthquake (M=5.9), show no variation inSR(T, f) related to this earthquake: this proves that there was no major change in attenuation in the crust preceding this large shock. If a change occurred, it should have been confined to a very limited region, which was not sampled by the many paths we studied.The employed method probably provides today the most accurate estimation of spectral ratio in the coda of microearthquakes. It shows that there are numerous kinds of variations and that it is not straightforward to relate them to coda attenuation changes only. Also, we must be circumspect when dealing with the coda of microearthquakes in relation to forecasting earthquakes.     

Seismic doublets and multiplets at Polish coal and copper mines

The following criteria for selection of doublets at Polish coal mines were accepted: the difference in magnitude (based on seismic moment) of two events not larger than 0.15, the distance between their hypocenters not greater than 150 m, and the time interval between their occurrence not longer than 10 days. Similarly, the criteria for seismic events at copper mines are: the difference in magnitude not exceeding 0.15, the distance not greater than 200 m, and the time interval not longer than 20 days. Seismic events from the Wujek and Ziemowit coal mines that occurred between 1993 and 1995, and seismic events from the Polkowice copper mine that occurred between 1994 and 1996 and from the Rudna copper mine that occurred between 1994 and 2004 were considered. Their source parameters and focal mechanisms were known in most cases from previous studies. Altogether 108 seismic pairs from coal mines and 118 pairs from copper mines were found, forming doublets, triplets and quadruplets, within the magnitude range from 0.7 to 3.5. The distance and time intervals between two events forming pairs are not dependent on magnitude of these events. The focal mechanism of seismic events forming pairs is similar in over 60 percent of pairs at coal mines and in about one third of pairs at copper mines. Spatial distributions of doublets in particular sections of coal and copper mines display dominant linear trends, characteristic for a given area, which are often in conformity with the direction of nodal planes determined by fault plane solution of one or both the events forming a doublet. In such cases, the rupture plane can be discriminated among the nodal planes.     

跨断层形变测量异常特征分析

在统计近40年我国强震前跨断层形变异常的基础上, 对异常持续时间、 异常空间分布、 异常幅度特征及它们之间的关系进行了分析, 讨论了跨断层形变观测异常特征和监测不同震级地震跨断层场地的最大间距及观测周期。 结果表明: 异常主要以中短期和中期异常为主, 尤其在震前1年内异常最多; 异常持续时间与震级呈正比例的关系; 异常在空间分布上有随震级增大而扩大的现象; 异常幅度有随异常持续时间增大而增大的趋势; 震中距在160~350 km范围内异常幅度较大; 异常形态主要分为趋势型和突变型两种。 监测不同震级的地震跨断层形变场地间距可以不同, 监测7级地震形变场地间距应小于450 km; 6级应小于300 km; 5级应小于200 km; 4级应小于100 km。 跨断层形变观测周期应不大于3个月。     

芦山7.0级地震近断层地震动的方向性

基于芦山7.0级地震中断层距小于100 km自由场台站的强震动记录观测数据,研究此次地震近断层地震动的方向性特性,并探讨方向性特性与震源破裂机制、断层距离和空间方位的关系.研究结果表明：（1）与距断层较远记录不同,近断层地震动在不同的观测方向上表现出显著的强度差异,存在明显的极大和极小作用方向.在不同的方向上,最大加速度反应可达最小值的4倍以上;（2）这种方向性差异在T=1.0 s以上的长周期段更为明显,在T=0.1 s以下的短周期段,地震动随方向变化的差异较小.地震动强度随方向变化的差异随周期增大而增大,不同方向上的加速度反应谱值的最大值与最小值之比从周期T=0.01 s时的约1.7增大到周期T=10 s时的约2.4;（3）在距离断层约35 km以内,地震动具有明显方向性,地震动卓越方向具有垂直断层走向的特征,随断层距的增大,这种方向性不明显.从不同方向上地震动强度的差异来看,随断层距增大,地震动强度在不同方向上的差异在减小,表现为各个周期的最大值/中值和最大值/最小值比值均随断层距离增大缓慢减小;（4）近断层地震动的方向性特性主要受断层上、下盘的相对运动所控制,其在长周期的卓越方向与水平同震位移方向一致,且该卓越方向上的地震动强度绝对大小与地震破裂造成的静态位移明显相关,表现为地震动强度随水平同震位移的增大而增大.     

岩石圈下部的速度结构

我们分析了中国华北平原以及沙特阿拉伯深地震测深的记录,发现P_n可以连续追踪到500公里以上,中间并无间断现象,而且在接收距离350-500公里之间,P_n后面有一到两个很强的续至震相,它们的速度与P_n相似,而能量比P_n更强。经与沉积层中薄层的野外实验结果以及室内超声波模型实验的结果相比较,我们得到这样的结论:岩石圈下部存在一至数个高速薄层,其厚度不超过一公里。地幔顶部物质的正常速度可能比薄层略低。岩石圈中薄层的存在对于岩石圈的演化过程具有重要的意义。     

利用纯S波输入研究地震台站下方的横波速度结构

震中距在50°左右的深源远震,直达波S波震相波列可以与其他震相波列分离. 在层状介质中,本文通过传播矩阵方法得到由S波从台下底层输入获得地面理论地震图的新方法,并由此拟合了河北省两个地震台短周期S波记录,获得台站下方横波速度结构. 结果表明,红山台下13km和24km左右有S波低速层存在,地壳厚度为33.km;涉县台下18km和30km左右有S波低速层存在. 红山台下S波差异显著的2个低速层夹持的高速层、较薄地壳及上地幔顶部低S波速度结构,与166年邢台大地震有关. 考虑到S波速度对部分熔融体的敏感性,认为地壳S波速度结构可作为揭示强震深部背景的依据之一.     

小行星撞击对地球的上地幔对流的影响

本文分别基于数值结果和地质学模型,在假定地球的上地幔存在稳定Rayleigh-Bénard对流的基础上,模拟了直径为10 km（陨石坑直径约180 km,以Chicxulub为例）和直径为100 km（陨石坑直径约1000 km）的小行星撞击对地球的上地幔对流格局的影响.本文将直径10 km小行星的撞击效果等效为热异常,将直径100 km小行星的撞击效果等效为热异常和速度异常（主要指陨石坑底部的回弹）的叠加.计算结果表明,当小行星的直径在10 km左右时,撞击对上地幔对流的影响十分微弱,热扰动时间仅2—3 Ma;而当小行星的直径达到100 km时,撞击就会对上地幔对流产生强烈影响.这时,对流从扰动到新的稳态有一定模式可循（依次为：调整、多个对流环、调整、稳定）,扰动的持续时间受黏度和撞击点位置影响,同时稳定后地幔热柱会向着撞击点的方向产生一定的位移.