1904-1980年全球浅源地震能量释放的隐含周期性探讨

本文求取了1904—1980年全球浅源地震释放能量时间序列的付氏谱、布莱克曼—图基谱和最大熵谱。由不同的取样方式和功率谱的计算方法,确定其地震能量释放较为可信的隐含周期约为9.1年、14.4年、45.4年和128年,且这些主要周期成份之间存在整数因子3和5。用互功率谱法求取了这些主周期成份的初相,从而确定了这些周期成份取最大值的时间,并与地震能量释放时间序列进行了对比,推测下一个全球浅源地震能量释放高潮期约在1990—1994年左右。     

南北地震带潮汐触发地震的统计学证据

自19世纪90年代以来,潮汐是否会触发地震这个问题一直备受关注.本研究选用1970年1月1日至2017年5月31日期间南北地震带(20°N—40°N,97°E—105°E)M_L≥2.0地震目录资料,通过测量南北地震带地区地震事件与潮汐的相关性来研究潮汐是否能触发地震.选用完备性检测、G-C法、R/S分析方法对原始地震目录进行预处理,分别构成未去除余震和去除余震每日地震数量时间序列,利用经验模态分解和快速傅里叶方法,对比分析了潮汐与每日地震数量构成的时间序列频谱特征.结果表明,在本文研究区域,两种每日地震数量时间序列均与潮汐的月潮周期、半月潮周期存在相关性,并且去除余震后的每日地震时间序列的优势频率更加集中,表现的相关性更好.此外,Schuster’s测试结果也进一步证明,研究区域地震活动性与固体潮汐存在显著统计相关性.     

2002年厄尔尼诺事件的天文条件

自《西北地震学报》2 0 0 1年第 4期发表了笔者的文章《2 0 0 1年厄尔尼诺事件的天文条件》以来[1] ,全球气候异常越来越显著 .近期研究发现 ,近地潮与日月大潮的叠加有 6～ 8个月的准周期变化 ,厄尔尼诺事件发生时间与强潮汐时段有很好的对应关系 .1991年 5月～ 1992年 8月 ,1993年 4月～ 1994年 1月 ,1994年 10月～1995年 6月 ,1997年 4月～ 1998年 6月 ,厄尔尼诺事件发生时间都在近地潮与日月大潮叠加的强潮汐时段 (见表 1) .表 1　 1991年 3月～ 1997年 5月的厄尔尼诺天文条件近地点时间日期时间农历日 日食月食潮汐强度极端气候变化199…     

全球与我国地震活动序列的时间序列分析(英文)

目前时间序列分析在工业及水文、气象、地球物理等自然科学领域中得到了迅速发展。本文用非线性门限自回归及最大熵谱分析方法分析了我国年最大震级和全球年地震能量释放序列。最大熵谱分析具有分辨率高、周期偏移小的突出优点。对1897年至1983年的我国最大震级和全球年地震能量序列进行了最大熵谱分析,计算结果表明,我国年最大震级的周期为3.9年,全球年地震能量的显著周期为7.7年、4.4年、2.9年、及2.3年。对上述序列进行了门限自回归分析,并对我国分区年最大震级序列进行了门限自回归分析。在门限延迟值d=4,8,10时相应的AIC值为谷值。     

地球引潮力极大值和强潮汐周期性指数的建立与定性分析

日、月对地球表层海水的引潮力导致潮汐的周期性变化是一种成熟理论.地球除具有日、月、年潮汐规律外,还具有明显的准1800年、200年、50~70年、18.6年、9.3年和2.5~7年不同尺度的周期.本文通过将地球赤道半径和月球轨道半径投影到黄道面上,标定二者矢量半径之和的模的极值状态,创建了引潮力极大值和强潮汐的周期性指数KSEM.这对探讨和预测潮汐的时间分布和推断地球自转角速度变化规律提供了一种新途径.行星系统中木星和金星对地球的摄动影响最突出,但目前还没有一个行之有效的模型将日、地、月、木星、金星作为一个统一整体,对地球潮汐极值状态进行刻画.通过辨析这五大天体运动预设的位置关系的结构特征,进而考察KSEM指数与月球升交点和月球近地点会合周期的对应关系,以及对月球轨道运动不同的特征周期的叠加和定性分析,这对探讨强潮汐周期、厄尔尼诺现象和地震的时间分布规律提供了重要参考.     

全球地震活动的周期性分析

本文根据历史地震资料按最大熵谱方法对全球及全球各地震区强震活动的时间序列进行了分析。其结果是:全球整体的巨大地震能量释放谱的最高峰值周期为10.53年,环太平洋地震系和大陆地震区的最高峰值周期分别是8.16年与10.25年。同时给出了全球各区强震活动的谱分析结果,对各区的周期进行了比较,指出了周期相近的有关地区。最后讨论了产生这种周期的原因,认为不应局限于地球的封闭系统中而应在宇宙环境中探讨地震成因和动力来源问题。     

GPS时间序列及其对昆仑山口西 8.1级地震的响应

采用GIPSY软件解算的站点坐标时间序列,对我国25个GPS基准站的观测数据进行了分析. 结果表明, 该时间序列存在明显的趋势变化,经向坐标与纬向坐标的趋势变化反映了各站点在全球板块中的运动; 垂直方向的趋势变化揭示的可能是大尺度的构造信息, 也可能是站点周围局部运动的反映. 分析还表明,该时间序列存在明显的近乎1年的年变周期,但具体原因还有待于进一步研究. 最后, 就该时间序列对昆仑山口西8.1级地震的响应进行了分析. 结果表明:GPS时间序列对该地震的孕育过程反映明显,并根据时间进程及异常特点将昆仑山口西8.1级地震的孕育过程分为3个阶段: 块体受力状态的变化、应力积累和能量的快速积累与缓慢释放. 在8.1级地震孕育的初始阶段和临震、同震及震后恢复阶段, 垂直方向的异常占据主导地位,初始阶段垂直方向的异常运动导致断层间闭锁; 而在地震孕育的中期,各块体间水平方向的差异运动则占主导地位,它是引起能量在断层闭锁段积累的重要原因.       

青藏高原东南缘活动断裂的地震应变能释放系统研究

本文以青藏高原东南缘为研究区域,利用G-R震级能量经验公式和Benioff地震应变能释放曲线,对该区域内1500年以来的历史地震应变能释放进行了系统性的研究。文中给出了各断裂带和断块区的地震应变能释放周期表,及相应的地震危险性。分析发现研究区域地震应变能的释放具有东强西弱,南强北弱的特征,整体上各断层断块区的历史地震应变能释放符合准周期模式,某些断层和断块区上的地震周期具有某种程度上的同步现象。青藏高原东南缘现今处于大释放期中,地震的危险性不能忽视。局部结果显示,安宁河-则木河断裂带、小江断裂带的危险性很高,对于这些危险区要重点跟踪研究。今后仍需结合不同研究方法来提高地震危险性评估的可靠性。     

青藏高原东南缘活动断裂的地震应变能释放系统研究

本文以青藏高原东南缘为研究区域,利用G-R震级能量经验公式和Benioff地震应变能释放曲线,对该区域内1500a以来的历史地震应变能释放进行了系统研究。文中给出了各断裂带和断块区的地震应变能释放周期表及相应的地震活动性分析。分析发现研究区域地震应变能的释放具有东强西弱,南强北弱的特征,整体上各断层断块区的历史地震应变能释放符合准周期模式,某些断层和断块区上的地震周期具有某种程度的同步现象。青藏高原东南缘现今处于大释放期,地震的活动性不能忽视。对局部地区的研究结果显示,安宁河-则木河断裂带、小江断裂带的地震活动性较强,对于这些地区应重点跟踪研究。     

川滇地区Ms≥7.0地震时间对称特征及其周期解释

通过地震时间对称特征进行地震趋势判断的研究,对于地震防灾、减灾有重要意义。为验证地震时间对称性研究方法,揭示地震时间对称特征的机理,采用可公度计算、蝴蝶结构图和可公度结构系方法研究川滇地区MS≥7.0地震时间对称特征及趋势;然后利用小波分析所提取的川滇地区MS≥5.0地震能量释放周期和日月活动周期,对川滇地区MS≥7.0地震时间对称特征进行解释。研究结果显示:(1)川滇地区MS≥7.0地震具有明显时间对称特征,2017年发震信号最强,其随机概率为65.5%。(2)川滇地区MS≥7.0地震时间对称特征是地震能量释放周期更直观的表达。(3)川滇地区MS≥7.0地震时间对称特征是月球赤纬角周期和太阳黑子周期组合叠加的结果,月球赤纬角极值是强震的主要触发因素。     

Wavelet-based characterization of water level behaviors in the Pearl River estuary, China

In this paper, we analyzed the high/low water levels of eight stations along the Pearl River estuary and the high/low tidal levels of Sanzao station, and streamflow series of Sanshui and Makou stations using wavelet transform technique and correlation analysis method. The behaviors of high/low water levels of the Pearl River estuary, possible impacts of hydrological processes of the upper Pearl River Delta and astronomical tidal fluctuations were investigated. The results indicate that: (1) the streamflow variability of Sanshui and Makou stations is characterized by 1-year period; 1-, 0.5- and 0.25-year periods can be detected in the high tidal level series of Sanzao station, which reflect the fluctuations of astronomical tidal levels. The low tidal level series of Sanzao station has two periodicity elements, i.e. 0.5- and 0.25-year periods; (2) different periodicity properties have been revealed: the periods of high water levels of the Pearl River estuary are characterized by 1-, 0.5- and 0.25-year periods; and 1-year period is the major period in the low water levels of the Pearl River estuary; (3) periodicity properties indicate that behaviors of low water levels are mainly influenced by hydrological processes of the upper Pearl River Delta. High water levels of the Pearl River estuary seem to be affected by both hydrological processes and fluctuations of astronomical tidal levels represented by tidal level changes of Sanzao station. Correlation analysis results further corroborate this conclusion; (4) slight differences can be observed in wavelet transform patterns and properties of relationships between high/low water levels and streamflow changes. This can be formulated by altered hydrodynamic and morphodynamic processes due to intensifying human activities such as construction of engineering infrastructures and land reclamation.     

地磁场长期变化和日长十年尺度变化的周期特征

根据历史地磁场模型GUFM1、第10代国际参考地磁场（IGRF10）模型和日长资料,采用小波变换方法,分析了地磁场磁矩、能量、西向漂移等参数的长期变化和日长十年尺度变化的周期分量及其时变特征.结果表明,1800～2005年期间,偶极子磁场长期变化有82年和48年准周期分量,它们与日长变化的周期没有直接关系.非偶极子磁场参数的长期变化与日长变化有66年和32年准周期分量,66年准周期比32年准周期强.在66年准周期分量,西向漂移比日长变化超前8.8年,非偶极子磁场能量比日长变化滞后15.6年.日长十年尺度波动和地磁场长期变化的起源不存在因果关系.     

Correlation analysis and causality test between Ludong-Huanghai block and South Japan

In this paper, we make a comparative analysis and correlation test for the seismic activities in the South Japan and the Ludong-Huanghai block (a secondary tectonic unit in the North China) and approach the relationship between the energy release processes of these two areas by using co-integration analysis and Granger causality test for the time series of random variables. The results show that the seismic activities in these two areas are correlative and synchronous to a certain extent, and their release series of cumulative strain energy are contemporaneously cor-relative. Both energy series are first-order difference stationary processes and there is secular and steady co-integration between them. We make a positive analysis on the first-order difference energy series through Granger causality test based on vector error correction (VEC) model and find there is unilateral Granger causality and prominent co-integration between the two energy release processes.     

Variations in the intensity of the global seismic process in the 20th and the beginning of 21st centuries

The variations in the intensity of the global seismic process during the 20th and beginning of the 21st centuries are analyzed. It is established that the evolution of the global seismic process is marked by a trend of a certain quasi-periodicity in the release of seismic energy. The analysis of the lithospheric seismicity during 113 years has shown that this time interval accommodated three periods of seismic activation separated by two periods of relative seismic quiescence. The global seismicity of the Earth is strongly dominated by the contributions of the earthquakes in the Pacific seismic belt. A considerable effect is also provided by the northeastern margin of the Indian Ocean. The horizontal displacements of the lithospheric plates are probably responsible for the accumulation of stresses in the potential sources of the earthquakes at the interplate contacts and in the orogenic areas inside the continents. The revealed clustering of the earthquakes with M ≥ 8.3 in the narrow time intervals is probably due to the fact that the strongest seismic event that occurs at the beginning of each activation is a trigger which simultaneously causes the relaxation of a few dozen mature potential sources within 10–15 years. This interval of seismic activation is followed by a relatively quiet period of 30–35 years, when the energy for the next activation is accumulated in a series of high-magnitude sources.     

太阳活动千年尺度的准周期性波动

2004年,Solanki等人利用树木年轮中δ14C含量变化重建的太阳黑子数序列研究太阳活动的论文被Nature发表,该黑子序列自1895年起向历史时期延伸了11400年.本文采用最大熵谱分析方法和小波变换方法分析了这一重建的太阳黑子序列,重点讨论太阳活动在千年尺度上的周期性波动.结果表明,太阳活动的长期变化中存在接近千年和略大于两千年的准周期信号,以及可能存在约7千年的波动,得到了这些准周期分量的参数.这些准周期分量的周期长度和振幅是随着时间变化的,文中给出了它们的时变图象并讨论了它们的时变特征.     

Modelling the global ocean tides: modern insights from FES2004

During the 1990s, a large number of new tidal atlases were developed, primarily to provide accurate tidal corrections for satellite altimetry applications. During this decade, the French tidal group (FTG), led by C. Le Provost, produced a series of finite element solutions (FES) tidal atlases, among which FES2004 is the latest release, computed from the tidal hydrodynamic equations and data assimilation. The aim of this paper is to review the state of the art of tidal modelling and the progress achieved during this past decade. The first sections summarise the general FTG approach to modelling the global tides. In the following sections, we introduce the FES2004 tidal atlas and validate the model against in situ and satellite data. We demonstrate the higher accuracy of the FES2004 release compared to earlier FES tidal atlases, and we recommend its use in tidal applications. The final section focuses on the new dissipation term added to the equations, which aims to account for the conversion of barotropic energy into internal tidal energy. There is a huge improvement in the hydrodynamic tidal solution and energy budget obtained when this term is taken into account.     

Sea level fluctuations on the east coast of Taiwan that overlie continental shelf break

Captured CO₂ could be deliberately injected into the ocean at great depth, where most of it would remain isolated from the atmosphere for centuries. CO₂ can be transported via pipeline or ship for release in the ocean or on the sea floor. No matter what for medium depth or deep sea, it appears that a potential area exists between 122–122.5°E and 21.8–22.3°N for CO₂ sequestration. The east coast of Taiwan can be a candidate for CO₂ temporary storage or transmitted plant. To have whole picture of assessment of sea level fluctuation, a completed statistical summary of seasonal sea level at six tidal gauge stations along the east coast of Taiwan is provided herein. Seasonal sea level time series is analyzed using spectral analysis in frequency domain to identify periodic component and phase propagation, especially for the astronomical-driven tidal effects. It identifies that the semi-diurnal and diurnal components in the resultant time series are related to astronomical tides M₂, and K₁ and O₁, respectively. It demonstrates a full analysis of sea level variations, and results can be useful when construction of testing or operating facilities on sea surface becomes desirable in the future.     

海潮负荷对沿海地区宽幅InSAR形变监测的影响

海岸带地区是全球自然生态环境最为复杂和脆弱的地域之一,合成孔径雷达干涉测量（InSAR）技术可以为全球人类活动、气候变暖和俯冲带剧烈构造运动等背景下的大范围海岸带地理环境变化研究提供重要观测资料.海洋潮汐导致固体地球长周期形变,波长尺度为10²~10³ km的海潮负荷引入mm级至cm级的形变梯度,此类非构造信号对海岸带InSAR精密形变分析（如：大范围、微小、缓慢且非稳态构造过程等）造成显著影响.本文以宽幅模式SAR数据为例,基于多种海潮模型研究了全球典型海岸带地区（福建、智利和阿拉斯加湾）海潮负荷效应对宽幅InSAR形变监测的影响,给出了宽幅InSAR海潮负荷三维分量估计与差分相位提取方法,并进一步讨论了基于不同海潮模型估计海潮负荷位移的差异.海潮负荷影响不仅与研究范围大小有关,其形变梯度变化与研究区域地形特征存在强相关,对于长波长形变分析而言,传统平面或者曲面拟合方法难以有效分离海潮负荷位移.     

Lunar seismicity and tectonics

Seismic signals from 300–700 deep moonquakes and about four shallow moonquakes are detected by the long-period seismometers of two or more of the Apollo seismic stations annually. Deep-moonquake activity detected by the Apollo seismic network displays tidal periodicities of 0.5 and 1 month, 206 d and 6 a. Repetitive moonquakes from 60 hypocenters produce seismograms characteristic of each. At each hypocenter, moonquakes occur only within an active period of a few days during a characteristic phase of the monthly lunar tidal cycle. An episode of activity may contain up to four quakes from one hypocenter. Nearly equal numbers of hypocenters are active at opposite phases of the monthly cycle, accounting for the 0.5-month periodicity. The 0.5- and 1-month activity peaks occur near times of extreme latitudinal and longitudinal librations and earth-moon separation (EMS). The 206-d and 6-a periodicities in moonquake occurrence and energy release characteristics are associated with the phase variations between the librations and EMS. Because of the exact relationship between tidal phases and the occurrence of deep moonquakes from a particular hypocenter, it is possible to predict not only the occurrence times from month to month, often to within several hours, but also the magnitudes of the moonquakes from that hypocenter. The predicted occurrence of large A₁ moonquakes in 1975, following a 3-a hiatus, confirms the correlation between A₁-moonquake activity and the 6-a lunar tidal cycle and implies a similar resurgence for all of the deep moonquakes. Because no matching shallow moonquake signals have been identified to date, tidal periodicities cannot be identified for the individual sources. However, shallow moonquakes generally occur near the times of extreme librations and EMS and often near the same tidal phase as the closest deep moonquake epicenters. With several possible exceptations, the deep-moonquake foci located to date occur in three narrow belts on the nearside of the moon. The belts are 100–300 km wide, 1,000–2,500 km long and 800–1,000 km deep and define a global fracture system that intersects in central Oceanus Procellarum. A fourth active, although poorly defined, zone is indicated. The locations of 17 shallow-moonquake foci, although not as accurate as the deep foci, show fair agreement with the deep-moonquake belts. Focal depths calculated for the shallow moonquakes range from 0–200 km. Deep-moonquake magnitudes range from 0.5 to 1.3 on the Richter scale with a total energy release estimated to be about 10¹¹ erg annually. The largest shallow moonquakes have magnitudes of 4–5 and release about 10¹⁵–10¹⁸ erg each. Tidal deformation of a rigid lunar lithosphere overlying a reduced-rigidity asthenosphere leads to stress and strain concentrations near the base of the lithosphere at the level of the deep moonquakes. Although tidal strain energy can account for the deep moonquakes in this model, it cannot account for the shallow moonquakes. The tidal stresses within the lunar lithosphere range from about 0.1 to 1 bar and are insufficient to generate moonquakes in unfractured rock, suggesting that lunar tides act as a triggering mechanism. The largest deep moonquakes of each belt usually occur near the same characteristic tidal phases corresponding to near minimum or maximum tidal stress, increasing tidal stress, and alignments of tidal shear stresses that correspond to thrust faulting along planes parallel to the moonquake belts and dipping 30–40°. With few exceptions, the shallow moonquakes occur at times of near minimum tidal stress conditions and increasing tidal stress that also suggest thrust faulting. The secular accumulation of strain energy required for the shallow moonquakes and implied by the uniform polarities of the deep moonquake signals probably results from weak convection. A convective mechanism would explain the close association between moonquake locations and the distribution of filled mare basins and thin lunar crust, the earth-side topographic bulge, and the ancient lunar magnetic field. The low level of lunar seismic activity and the occurrence of thrust faulting both at shallow and great depths implies that the moon is presently cooling and contracting at a slow rate.