基于数学建模的潜在地震破裂面源检测方法研究

大多数地震破裂面源检测方法都是通过简化地震震源,将地震震源表示成线源或者点源,无法有效描述地震带地震破裂面源产状和大小,不适用地震震级较大的情况下地震危险性检测。因此提出基于数学建模的潜在地震破裂面源检测方法,在地震震级较大时仍能检测出地震危险性概率。选取适宜的地震基岩水平峰值加速度衰减关系,分析地震震级、破裂长度、破裂宽度相互关系,确定地震引起的潜在地震破裂面源大小,计算给定地震动小于在场点处产生地震动的概率,将该概率同地震动加速度衰减关系结合,得到地震动年超越概率,分析地震危险性。经过实验检测发现,所提方法检测出的年超越概率与峰值加速度、最大震级有关,该概率能精准表示地震带地震破裂面源产状和大小,说明该方法检测地震危险性是合理的。     

Seismic hazard in southern Calabria (Italy) based on the analysis of a synthetic earthquake catalog

The application of a newly developed physics-based earthquake simulator to the active faults inferred by aeromagnetism in southern Calabria has produced a synthetic catalog lasting 100 ky including more than 18,000 earthquakes of magnitude ≥?4.0. This catalog exhibits temporal, spatial and magnitude features, which resemble those of the observed seismicity. As an example of the potential use of synthetic catalogs, a map of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) for a given exceedance probability on the territory under investigation has been produced by means of a simple attenuation law applied to all the events reported in the synthetic catalog. This map was compared with the existing hazard map that is presently used in the national seismic building regulations. The comparison supports a strong similarity of our results with the values given in the present Italian seismic building code, despite the latter being based on a different methodology. The same similarity cannot be recognized for the comparison of our present study with the results obtained from a previous study based on our same methodology but with a different geological model.     

Seismic design spectra and mapping procedures using hazard analysis based directly on oscillator response

The calculation of design spectra for building sites threatened by seismic ground motion is approached by considering the maximum responses of linearly elastic oscillators as indicators of ground motion intensity. Attenuation functions describing the distribution of response as a function of earthquake magnitude and distance are derived using 68 components of recorded ground motion as data. With a seismic hazard analysis for several hypothetical building sites, the distributions of maximum oscillator responses to earthquakes of random magnitude and location are calculated, and spectra are drawn to indicate the maximum responses associated with specified probability levels. These spectra are compared to design spectra calculated from published methods of amplifying peak ground motion parameters. The latter spectra are found to be inconsistent in terms of risk for building sites very close and very far from faults. A ground motion parameter defined to be proportional to the maximum response of a 1 Hz, 2 per cent damped linearly elastic oscillator is investigated; this parameter, in conjunction with peak ground acceleration, is found to lead to risk-consistent design spectra. Through these two parameters, a design earthquake magnitude and design hypocentral distance are defined, for a specified building site and risk level. The use of these parameters in the seismic hazard mapping of a region is illustrated.     

地裂缝场地结构抗震设防避让距离研究

以西安地铁二号线沿线地质勘查资料为基础,借助ABAQUS有限元软件建立地裂缝场地与结构共同作用模型,将结构分别置于距地裂缝不同距离的位置,并施加El-Centro地震波,通过比较不同位置结构的层间位移角、框架柱剪力的变化情况,研究近地裂缝结构在地震作用下的工作特性,找出不同避让距离下的结构动力响应变化规律,并与地表峰值加速度的变化规律进行对比分析,为地裂缝场地结构的避让距离选取提供参考。结果表明:上盘结构层间位移角放大幅度为30%~41%,而下盘结构层间位移角放大幅度为18%~22%,上盘结构的破坏程度远大于下盘结构。随避让距离的增大,地表加速度峰值逐渐减小,结构破坏情况相应减弱,但地表峰值加速度表现出现较为平缓的线性下降,而其上部结构的峰值位移曲线则出现大幅度的下降,甚至在近地裂缝处产生突变,其最大层间位移角放大幅度由41%降为21%,地表加速度峰值的变化并不能完全反映出近地裂缝结构的动力响应规律。位于地裂缝场地的结构动力时程响应规律明显区别于普通场地上的结构,对位于地裂缝场地的结构进行抗震设计时应对水平地震影响系数最大值αmax进行调整。     

近断层速度脉冲型地震动设计谱特征研究

选取161条速度脉冲型近断层地震动记录,采用最小二乘法拟合得到近断层地震动抗震设计Newmark三联谱,研究了震级、场地和断层类型对近断层设计谱的影响。结果表明：大震（级）相比小震（级）的影响较为显著,大震（级）下设计谱具有更宽的加速度敏感区段,中长周期段内的反应谱谱值更高;在3类断层类型中,大震（级）下逆斜断层的反应谱加速度敏感区段最宽,谱值最大。对于近断层区域的结构在大震（级）下应该考虑增大特征周期并提高设计谱谱值,还应充分考虑逆斜断层等断层类型的影响。     

Investigating the role of source mechanism,surface topography,and attenuation on the observed PGA pattern in May 28, 2004, Mw 6.2 Baladeh earthquake (Iran)

In this paper, we use seismic waveform simulation to investigate the influence of source mechanism complexity, surface topography, and quality factor on the observed peak ground motions in May 28, 2004, moment magnitude (Mw) 6.2 Baladeh earthquake. The observed peak ground acceleration (PGA) pattern in this event, which is the biggest earthquake to hit the Central Alborz Mountains of Iran in modern instrumental era, is irregular in some respects. First, the observed PGA contours are elongated toward north-west and, second, the maximum observed PGA value of 1049 cm/s² on the horizontal component of Hasan Keyf station 50 km away from the epicenter is quite high and irregular for an earthquake of this magnitude, at such long distance. In this study, we employ the spectral element method, implemented in SPECFEM3D software package to simulate the 3D wave propagation from several source models in the area. Our results suggest directivity effect is the main cause of the anomalous observations in this earthquake and could account for the elongation of PGA contours and also the anomalous maximum PGA value observed at Hasan Keyf strong motion station. We show that the surface topography has minor effect on the observed peak ground acceleration and the resulting PGA maps. Also by finding the bounds of seismic quality factor effect on the peak ground acceleration values, we show that this factor could not account for the elongation of iso-acceleration contours in the north-west direction.     

Ground-motion prediction equations for the intermediate depth Vrancea (Romania) earthquakes

We present the regional ground-motion prediction equations for peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA), and seismic intensity (MSK scale) for the Vrancea intermediate depth earthquakes (SE-Carpathians) and territory of Romania. The prediction equations were constructed using the stochastic technique on the basis of the regional Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) source scaling and attenuation models and the generalised site amplification functions. Values of considered ground motion parameters are given as the functions of earthquake magnitude, depth and epicentral distance. The developed ground-motion models were tested and calibrated using the available data from the large Vrancea earthquakes. We suggest to use the presented equations for the rapid estimation of seismic effect after strong earthquakes (Shakemap generation) and seismic hazard assessment, both deterministic and probabilistic approaches.     

水库诱发地震的地震动特征

利用新丰江、美国奥洛维尔和蒙蒂赛洛水库地震极近场地面运动资料，研究了水库诱发地震的地震动峰值加速度衰减。结果表明，水库地震的峰值加速度高，衰减快。利用国内水库地震资料研究了水库地震烈度。水库地震烈度与同级天然地震烈度相比，一般是烈度高，衰减慢。水库地震的地震动反应谱频率高，地震动持续时间短     

An evaluation of seismic hazard parameters in southern Turkey

To investigate the characteristics of earthquake hazard parameters as a means of identifying different zones of seismicity, we have compiled a catalogue of about 1850 moderate to large-sized earthquakes with magnitudes m4.0 or greater in southern Turkey for the time period from 1900 to 1990. Several methods have been applied to the earthquake catalogue to assess seismic hazard. The study area is divided into 77 overlapping cells of 2° size. Theoretical calculations were made for the prediction of maximum magnitude, intensity, b-values, strain energy release and corresponding m3 and peak ground acceleration levels for a given period of time. The resultant seismic hazard for each parameter is depicted as a contour map to indicate lateral variations in areas of seismic source. A combination and evaluation of various hazard parameters resulted in more reasonable estimates of hazard. It is found that the most hazardous seismic zones are the Rhodes and Burdur zones where the level of peak ground acceleration reaches up to 280 cm s-2 for an average return period of 100 years.     

Continuous estimates on the earthquake early warning magnitude by use of the near-field acceleration records

In this article, the seismic records of Japan’s Kik-net are selected to measure the acceleration, displacement, and effective peak acceleration of each seismic record within a certain time after P wave, then a continuous estimation is given on earthquake early warning magnitude through statistical analysis method, and Wenchuan earthquake record is utilized to check the method. The results show that the reliability of earthquake early warning magnitude continuously increases with the increase of the seismic information, the biggest residual happens if the acceleration is adopted to fit earthquake magnitude, which may be caused by rich high-frequency components and large dispersion of peak value in acceleration record, the influence caused by the high-frequency components can be effectively reduced if the effective peak acceleration and peak displacement is adopted, it is estimated that the dispersion of earthquake magnitude obviously reduces, but it is easy for peak displacement to be affected by long-period drifting. In various components, the residual enlargement phenomenon at vertical direction is almost unobvious, thus it is recommended in this article that the effective peak acceleration at vertical direction is preferred to estimate earthquake early warning magnitude. Through adopting Wenchuan strong earthquake record to check the method mentioned in this article, it is found that this method can be used to quickly, stably, and accurately estimate the early warning magnitude of this earthquake, which shows that this method is completely applicable for earthquake early warning.     

场地条件对地震动参数影响的关键问题

场地条件对地震动的影响很大,在地震动幅值（如峰值加速度）和频谱特性（如反应谱特征周期）的变化上均有体现,而我国现行抗震设计规范没有考虑不同场地条件下地震动峰值加速度和加速度反应谱平台值的变化。本文介绍了我国现行抗震设计规范中场地类别的划分方法、场地对地震动参数值的规定和存在的问题。详细分析了土层结构、覆盖层厚度等场地条件对地震动峰值加速度和反应谱的影响,以及已经取得的研究成果。最后,就场地分类、影响地震动参数的场地条件、地震动参数随场地条件调整的方法等,提出了有待进一步研究的问题。     

基于衰减关系的城镇烈度发生概率快速估计

震后快速产出的震动烈度分布是地震应急救援非常有效的依据, 通常由烈度与地震动参数的经验关系给出. 有台站的场点, 地震动参数可以直接由台站数据给出确定性的结果; 而无台站的场点, 地震动参数只能由衰减关系给出估计值. 目前我国台站覆盖有限, 且难于实时获取, 快速生成的地震动参数主要依赖于地震动衰减关系, 再依据烈度与地震动参数的经验关系, 输出确定性的震动烈度分布. 由于衰减关系本身存在着不确定性, 将其估计值用于生成确定性的震动烈度分布是不准确的. 而且实践证明, 震动烈度与实际调查烈度存在差异. 鉴于此, 从衰减关系模型中的ε出发, 提出了场点(城镇)遭遇不同烈度的概率计算方法: 利用衰减关系的估计值与衰减关系的标准差, 构造峰值加速度(PGA)变化的对数正态分布, 然后以烈度分档对应的PGA范围, 计算震区各城镇遭遇不同烈度的概率及各城镇抗震设防烈度被超越的概率. 具体以1966年3月8日河北邢台M_S6.8地震为例, 说明了此方法的可行性, 认为以概率形式给出城镇可能遭遇的烈度在表述上更为合理, 并建议将场点(城镇)遭遇烈度的概率表达方法用于震害快速评估.     

四川雅安地区场地地震动影响特征分析

为分析雅安地区场地结构引起的震动特性,选取该地区重大安评项目中的实际测试钻孔进行场地地震反应分析,采用等效线性化方法,并以NGA强震记录为输入,开展场地反应计算,在全面分析该地区场地地震特征的基础上,以峰值速度为参数指标,研究场地条件引起的峰值速度放大效应。研究结果表明,雅安地区场地卓越周期约为0.2 s,自振周期为0.2 s的建筑结构破坏相对严重;随着基岩峰值加速度的增大,峰值速度呈增大趋势,峰值速度与峰值加速度变化趋势并非完全一致,分析场地效应时应考虑多种地震动参数的变化规律;不同地震输入下峰值速度放大系数为1～1.8;峰值速度放大系数kv在不同强度基岩输入下,大致呈随等效剪切波速的增大而减小的趋势,软土场地更易引起场地峰值速度的放大,这种现象在芦山地震中较为明显。     

地震作用下夯土城墙动力响应分析——以山丹明长城为例

2022年1月8日门源M6.9地震造成山丹明长城局部破坏。为研究此次地震作用下夯土城墙的动力响应与破坏特征,基于地震现场考察结果,采用振幅等效处理后的记录地震波为输入地震动,开展双向地震荷载作用下夯土城墙的动力响应数值分析,研究不同位置测点的最大位移、峰值加速度与墙体应力分布特征,探讨地震导致夯土城墙破坏的主要内因。研究结果表明：双向地震荷载作用下,墙体位移和峰值加速度(PGA)随着高度的增加逐渐增加,但距墙体底部0.5 m高度范围内PGA放大效应不明显,最大位移、加速度均出现在墙体顶部裂缝位置处;水平地震荷载作用下墙体的地震动响应更为显著;墙体的最大主应力、最大剪应力均出现在有裂缝处的底端掏蚀悬空部位,墙体裂缝、夯筑搭接、掏蚀悬空处应力集中明显;裂缝对夯土城墙的地震动放大效应在一定高度范围内表现为弱化作用,但随高度增加逐渐过渡为强化作用;裂缝可显著增强墙体顶部地震动响应,可能是本次地震诱发城墙破坏的主要内因。研究成果可为古城墙遗址的加固修缮提供科学指导。     

典型土层场地随机地震反应规律分析

针对硬、中、软3种土层场地,选取历史上实测到的Ⅰ类和Ⅱ类场地的地震动记录各100条,分别调整地震动记录加速度峰值至0.1g、0.2g和0.3g,并采用一维等效线性化方法开展了场地随机地震反应研究,系统分析了地震动峰值加速度、速度和位移反应的变异性规律。主要结论为,位移和速度峰值的变异性随场地土变软而增大;位移和速度峰值变异性较加速度峰值的变异性更为突出;利用50条左右的地震动记录即可获得场地地震反应均值和标准差较为稳定的结果。     

Design Earthquakes in the U.K.

Three sites in the UK are taken, representative of low, medium and high hazard levels (by UK standards). For each site, the hazard value at 10⁻⁴ annual probability is computed using a generic seismic source model, and a variety of ground motion parameters: peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration at 10 Hz and 1 Hz, and intensity. Disaggregation is used to determine the nature of the earthquakes most likely to generate these hazard values. It is found (as might be expected) that the populations are quite different according to which ground motion parameter is used. When PGA is used, the result is a rather flat magnitude distribution with a tendency to low magnitude events (\le 4.5 ML) which are probably not really hazardous. Hazard-consistent scenario earthquakes computed using intensity are found to be in the range 5.8–5.9 ML, which is more in accord with the type of earthquake that one expects to be a worst-case event in the UK. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Tall building performance‐based seismic design using SCEC broadband platform site‐specific ground motion simulations

The scarcity of strong ground motion records presents a challenge for making reliable performance assessments of tall buildings whose seismic design is controlled by large‐magnitude and close‐distance earthquakes. This challenge can be addressed using broadband ground‐motion simulation methods to generate records with site‐specific characteristics of large‐magnitude events. In this paper, simulated site‐specific earthquake seismograms, developed through a related project that was organized through the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Ground Motion Simulation Validation (GMSV) Technical Activity Group, are used for nonlinear response history analyses of two archetype tall buildings for sites in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino. The SCEC GMSV team created the seismograms using the Broadband Platform (BBP) simulations for five site‐specific earthquake scenarios. The two buildings are evaluated using nonlinear dynamic analyses under comparable record suites selected from the simulated BBP catalog and recorded motions from the NGA‐West database. The collapse risks and structural response demands (maximum story drift ratio, peak floor acceleration, and maximum story shear) under the BBP and NGA suites are compared. In general, this study finds that use of the BBP simulations resolves concerns about estimation biases in structural response analysis which are caused by ground motion scaling, unrealistic spectral shapes, and overconservative spectral variations. While there are remaining concerns that strong coherence in some kinematic fault rupture models may lead to an overestimation of velocity pulse effects in the BBP simulations, the simulations are shown to generally yield realistic pulse‐like features of near‐fault ground motion records.     

保定市设计地震动参数的研究

本文根据保定市及周围地区的地震地质环境，在地震危险性分析的基础上，采用等效线性一维波动方程进行土层的地震反应分析。给出50年超越概率63％、10％、2％基岩和地面的水平向峰值加速度、反应谱（场址基本烈度Ⅶ度）和地震影响系数最大值。该结果为抗震设计提供了可靠依据，具有应用价值。     

Application of a Bayesian Approach for Estimation of Seismic Hazard Parameters in Some Regions of the Circum-Pacific Belt

—?The maximum possible (regional) magnitude M_max and other seismic hazard parameters like β which is the slope of Gutenberg-Richter law, and λ which is the intensity (rate) of seismic activity are estimated in eight seismic regions of the west side of the circum-Pacific belt. The Bayesian approach, as described by (Pisarenko et?al., 1996; Pisarenko and Lyubushin, 1997, 1999) is a straightforward technique of estimating the seismic hazard. The main assumptions for the method applied are a Poissonian character of seismic events flow, a frequency-magnitude law of Gutenberg-Richter's type with cutoff maximum value for the estimated parameter and a seismic catalog, which have a rather sizeable number of events. We also estimated the quantiles of the probabilistic distribution of the “apparent” M_max for future given time-length intervals.     

Scaling of strength reduction factors for degrading elasto‐plastic oscillators

The inelastic (design) spectra characterizing a seismic hazard are generally obtained by the scaling‐down of the elastic (design) spectra via a set of response modification factors. The component of these factors, which accounts for the ductility demand ratio, is known as the strength reduction factor (SRF), and the variation of this factor with initial period of the oscillator is called an SRF spectrum. This study considers scaling of the SRF spectrum in the case of an elasto‐plastic oscillator with strength and stiffness degradation characteristics. Two models are considered: one depending directly on the characterization of source and site parameters and the other depending on the normalized design spectrum characterization of the seismic hazard. The first model is the same as that proposed earlier by the second author, and is given in terms of earthquake magnitude, strong‐motion duration, predominant period, geological site conditions, ductility demand ratio, and ductility supply‐related parameter. The second model is a new model proposed here in terms of the normalized pseudo‐spectral acceleration values (to unit peak ground acceleration), ductility demand ratio and ductility supply‐related parameter. For each of these models, least‐square estimates of the coefficients are obtained through regression analyses of the data for 956 recorded accelerograms in western U.S.A. Parametric studies carried out with the help of these models confirm the dependence of SRFs on strong‐motion duration and earthquake magnitude besides predominant period and site conditions. It is also seen that degradation characteristics make a slight difference for high ductility demands and may lead to lower values of SRFs, unless the oscillators are very flexible. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.