Halocarbon emissions from marine phytoplankton and climate change

Long-lived and short-lived halocarbons have long been known for their adverse effects on atmospheric chemistry, especially ozone depletion that may be directly or indirectly influenced by global climate change. Marine organisms including phytoplankton contribute shorter-lived halocarbon compounds to the atmosphere. Oceans cover more than 70% of the Earth’s surface making the marine phytoplankton a significant presence. Changes in the environment will inevitably affect this widely distributed group of organisms. Various predictions have been made about how phytoplankton will respond to climate change, but as yet little is known about the interactions between phytoplankton, climate change and halocarbon emissions. We provide a summary of studies on halocarbon emissions by marine phytoplankton isolated from different climatic zones that includes data from our recent studies on tropical marine phytoplankton. It is important to determine and characterize the contribution of the phytoplankton to the halocarbon load in the atmosphere to allow their interaction with the changing global climate to be understood. Using these data, we compare the range of halocarbons emitted by phytoplankton with halocarbon emission data for seaweeds, a well-known biogenic contributor of short-lived halocarbons. Sørensen’s coefficient of similarity of 0.50 was calculated, which suggests that half of the detected halocarbon species present in seaweeds are also present in phytoplankton.     

The global impact of the Minoan eruption of Santorini, Greece

 The Minoan eruption of Santorini was a large-magnitude natural event. However, in terms of scale it ranks smaller in erupted volume and eruptive intensity than the historical eruption of Tambora in 1815 AD, and smaller in sulphur emission and, by inference, climatic effects than both the Tambora and Mt. Pinatubo, 1991, eruptions. Eruption statistics for the past 2000 years indicate that Minoan-size eruptions typically occur at a rate of several per thousand years. Eruptions resulting in a Minoan-scale injection of sulphur to the stratosphere occur far more frequently – at a rate of one or two per century. Inferences of massive sociological, religious and political impacts from such eruptions owe more to mythology than reality. Received: 28 November 1995 · Accepted: 9 January 1996     

Rare sulfur and triple oxygen isotope geochemistry of volcanogenic sulfate aerosols

We present analyses of stable isotopic ratios ¹⁷O/¹⁶O, ¹⁸O/¹⁶O, ³⁴S/³²S, and ³³S/³²S, ³⁶S/³²S in sulfate leached from volcanic ash of a series of well known, large and small volcanic eruptions. We consider eruptions of Mt. St. Helens (Washington, 1980, ∼1 km³), Mt. Spurr (Alaska, 1953, <1 km³), Gjalp (Iceland, 1996, 1998, <1 km³), Pinatubo (Phillipines, 1991, 10 km³), Bishop tuff (Long Valley, California, 0.76 Ma, 750 km³), Lower Bandelier tuff (Toledo Caldera, New Mexico, 1.61 Ma, 600 km³), and Lava Creek and Huckleberry Ridge tuffs (Yellowstone, Wyoming, 0.64 Ma, 1000 km³ and 2.04 Ma 2500 km³, respectively). This list covers much of the diversity of sizes and the character of silicic volcanic eruptions. Particular emphasis is paid to the Lava Creek tuff for which we present wide geographic sample coverage.This global dataset spans a significant range in δ³⁴S, δ¹⁸O, and Δ¹⁷O of sulfate (29‰, 30‰, and 3.3‰, respectively) with oxygen isotopes recording mass-independent (Δ¹⁷O > 0.2‰) and sulfur isotopes exhibiting mass-dependent behavior. Products of large eruptions account for most of‘ these isotopic ranges. Sulfate with Δ¹⁷O > 0.2‰ is present as 1-10 μm gypsum crystals on distal ash particles and records the isotopic signature of stratospheric photochemical reactions. Sediments that embed ash layers do not contain sulfate or contain little sulfate with Δ¹⁷O near 0‰, suggesting that the observed sulfate in ash is of volcanic origin.Mass-dependent fractionation of sulfur isotopic ratios suggests that sulfate-forming reactions did not involve photolysis of SO₂, like that inferred for pre-2.3 Ga sulfates from Archean sediments or Antarctic ice-core sulfate associated with few dated eruptions. Even though the sulfate sulfur isotopic compositions reflect mass-dependent processes, the products of caldera-forming eruptions display a large δ³⁴S range and exhibit fractionation relationships that do not follow the expected equilibrium slopes of 0.515 and 1.90 for ³³S/³²S vs. ³⁴S/³²S and ³⁶S/³²S vs. ³⁴S/³²S, respectively. The data presented here are consistent with modification of a chemical mass-dependent fractionation of sulfur isotopes in the volcanic plume by either a kinetic gas phase reaction of volcanic SO₂ with OH and/or a Rayleigh processes involving a residual Rayleigh reactant—volcanic SO₂ gas, rather than a Rayleigh product. These results may also imply at least two removal pathways for SO₂ in volcanic plumes.Above-zero Δ¹⁷O values and their positive correlation with δ¹⁸O in sulfate can be explained by oxidation by high-δ¹⁸O and high-Δ¹⁷O compounds such as ozone and radicals such as OH that result from ozone break down. Large caldera-forming eruptions have the highest Δ¹⁷O values, and the largest range of δ¹⁸O, which can be explained by stratospheric reaction with ozone-derived OH radicals. These results suggest that massive eruptions are capable of causing a temporary depletion of the ozone layer. Such depletion may be many times that of the measured 3-8% depletion following 1991 Pinatubo eruption, if the amount of sulfur dioxide released scales with the amount of ozone depletion.     

Have volcanoes already passed their zenith influencing the ozone layer?

Earth's ozone layer is only a very small part of the atmosphere, but its intact abundance is most important to the vitality of human beings. Observations have shown that especially after the plinian eruption of Pinatubo volcano in 1991 the ozone layer showed a dramatic depletion. Could a similar hypothetic eruption in the future cause an equal effective destruction of ozone while considering the increasing reduction of man-made halogens in the stratosphere after the Montreal protocol in 1987?     

Geotechnical Characteristics of Volcanic Soils Taken from Recent Eruptions

Recent volcanic eruptions at Mt. Unzen (Japan) in 1990 and Mt. Pinatubo (Philippines) in 1991 produced voluminous amounts of ash and sediments which inundated widespread areas. In later rehabilitation and reconstruction, it is practical and economical to use these freshly deposited sediments as materials for foundations and embankments. However, the geotechnical properties of young volcanic products have not been fully investigated. Accordingly, we investigated the geotechnical characteristics of volcanic soils associated with three recent eruptions, namely, the Unzen and Izu-Oshima eruptions of 1990 and 1986, respectively, in Japan and the Pinatubo eruption of 1991 in the Philippines. We specifically investigated index properties, permeability and compaction characteristics, and strength and deformation behavior in drained conditions. Additionally, we examined the dynamic properties and liquefaction characteristics of samples taken from Mt. Pinatubo. The results showed that the geotechnical characteristics of the deposits generally varied with the sampling sites. Depending on the location, either upstream or downstream from a volcano, the preferential sizing due to alluvial deposition affects engineering properties of the deposits. For example, volcanic sediments upstream from Mt. Pinatubo have high compressibility and low cyclic strength, whereas those taken downstream show dilative tendencies and high liquefaction strength.     

The Impact of Volcanic Eruption on Decadal-Scale Climate Prediction Skill of Pacic Sea Surface Temperatures in the IAP Near-Term Climate Prediction System(IAP DecPreS)

Explosive volcanic eruptions are known to be a leading cause of natural climate change. There has been a growing recognition that there is a measurable climate system response even to moderate-sized volcanic eruptions. In this study, we investigated the hindcast skills of the Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) using the hindcast experiments based on the near-term climate prediction system DecPreS developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP)(hereafter DP-EnOI-IAU experiments). The DP-EnOI-IAU experiments were run for initial years from 1960 to 2005. These hindcasts took into account observed stratospheric aerosol concentrations that included the four large tropical volcanic eruptions during that period. The time evolution over the entire hindcast period for skill in predicting the patterns of the 3~7 year prediction averages for Pacific SSTs showed that there was statistically significant skill for most years except for a dramatic drop in skill during the 1980s and 1990s. Decadal hindcast skill is reduced if the post-eruption model response deviates the internal El Niño variability in the observations. The simulations showed a post-eruption SST of a La Niña-like pattern in the third northern winter after the 1982 El Chichon eruption and a El Niño-like pattern after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, which were opposite in sign to what was in the observations. This lead to the loss of hindcast skill for years in the 1980s and 1990s affected by the eruptions. Agung (1963) happened to have post-eruption Pacific SSTs more similar to the observations and thus did not degrade prediction skill in the hindcasts.     

火山活动与气候变化研究进展

综述了火山活动对气候影响的研究进展。不同岩浆成分及喷发类型的火山活动对气候的影响不同：中酸性普林尼（Pl inian）式火山喷发主要造成气候变冷和臭氧层破坏，它导致气候变化的时间较短，但空间范围较大；大火成岩省造成气候变化的时空范围及程度均较大，它能够导致地表温度、海平面大幅度变化，最终引起生物灭绝；中小规模玄武质裂隙式喷发主要造成火山盆地内气候较大幅度变化，但对气候影响的持续时间较短，主要气候效应是导致附近地区温度快速下降和形成酸雨。简要阐述了第四纪火山活动的特点。     

美国全球变化研究计划实施进展与研究展望

美国全球变化研究计划（USGCRP）自成立以来的10年中，取得了丰硕的研究成果，也面临新的挑战，列举了自1990年以来尤其是近几年来USGCRP的主要成果与贡献，其中在国家评估，厄尔尼诺－南方涛动的预测，全球温度记录，过去1000年中最温暖的时期，北美碳汇，温室气体增加与臭氧损耗，臭氧损耗评估，大气污染物的长距离输送，海洋分析，热带测雨卫星，雷达卫星，火灾监测，SeaWiFS，全球环境维息服务等方面取得的成绩尤为显著，剖析了USGCRP在未来10年中的研究目标及其研究重点和面临的挑战。     

Spatial observation of the ozone layer

This article provides an overview of the various satellite instruments, which have been used to observe stratospheric ozone and other chemical compounds playing a key role in stratospheric chemistry. It describes the various instruments that have been launched since the late 1970s for the measurement of total ozone column and ozone vertical profile, as well as the major satellite missions designed for the study of stratospheric chemistry. Since the discovery of the ozone hole in the early 1980s, spatial ozone measurements have been widely used to evaluate and quantify the spatial extension of polar ozone depletion and global ozone decreasing trends as a function of latitude and height. Validation and evaluation of satellite ozone data have been the subject of intense scientific activity, which was reported in the various ozone assessments of the state of the ozone layer published after the signature of the Montreal protocol. Major results, based on satellite observations for the study of ozone depletion at the global scale and chemical polar ozone loss, are provided. The use of satellite observations for the validation of chemistry climate models that simulate the recovery of the ozone layer and in data assimilation is also described.     

Explosive volcanic eruptions triggered by cosmic rays: Volcano as a bubble chamber

Volcanoes with silica-rich and highly viscous magma tend to produce violent explosive eruptions that result in disasters in local communities and that strongly affect the global environment. We examined the timing of 11 eruptive events that produced silica-rich magma from four volcanoes in Japan (Mt. Fuji, Mt. Usu, Myojin-sho, and Satsuma-Iwo-jima) over the past 306 years (from AD 1700 to AD 2005). Nine of the 11 events occurred during inactive phases of solar magnetic activity (solar minimum), which is well indexed by the group sunspot number. This strong association between eruption timing and the solar minimum is statistically significant to a confidence level of 96.7%. This relationship is not observed for eruptions from volcanoes with relatively silica-poor magma, such as Izu-Ohshima. It is well known that the cosmic-ray flux is negatively correlated with solar magnetic activity, as the strong magnetic field in the solar wind repels charged particles such as galactic cosmic rays that originate from outside of the solar system. The strong negative correlation observed between the timing of silica-rich eruptions and solar activity can be explained by variations in cosmic-ray flux arising from solar modulation. Because silica-rich magma has relatively high surface tension (~ 0.1 Nm^?1), the homogeneous nucleation rate is so low that such magma exists in a highly supersaturated state without considerable exsolution, even when located relatively close to the surface, within the penetration range of cosmic-ray muons (1–10 GeV). These muons can contribute to nucleation in supersaturated magma, as documented by many authors studying a bubble chamber, via ionization loss. This radiation-induced nucleation can lead to the pre-eruptive exsolution of H₂O in the silica-rich magma. We note the possibility that the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption was triggered by the same mechanism: an increase in cosmic-ray flux triggered by Typhoon Yunya, as a decrease in atmospheric pressure results in an increase in cosmic-ray flux. We also speculate that the snowball Earth event was triggered by successive large-scale volcanic eruptions triggered by increased cosmic-ray flux due to nearby supernova explosions.     

天文因素对火山爆发的调制、触发作用

本文分析得到:1957—1982年间,全球低纬度火山爆发有73.9％和高纬度火山爆发有62.5％,分别发生在地球自转年际变化的减速段和加速段;火山爆发的日期,一般多发生在3天内遇到3个以上天文奇点引潮力共振加压的叠加之时,强火山爆发都发生在4个以上此种共振加压之时。表明地球自转速度变化和天文奇点引潮力共振加压在不同时间尺度上,分别对火山爆发具有调制和触发作用。其物理机理,两者都是引起火山附近地壳异常加压,促使岩浆受到挤压而累积能量或触发爆发。     

Deformation structures and an alteration zone linked to deposition of volcanogenic sulphate in an ancient playa (Oligocene of Nebraska, USA)

Historic, sulphur-rich volcanic eruptions have altered global climate for as much as five years, and much larger events are known from the geologic record. At Scotts Bluff, Nebraska, Early Oligocene strata of the lower Arikaree Group contain a tephra bed with abundant calcite pseudomorphs after gypsum. Previous work has shown sulphate from the pseudomorphs in this tephra bears a high ¹⁷O anomaly indicative of oxidation of sulphur gases by ozone or hydrogen peroxide in the atmosphere. Possible sources of the tephra were caldera eruptions at about 28 Ma in the San Juan volcanic field of south-western Colorado (∼500 km SW of the study site) and the eastern Great Basin (∼1000 km WSW). The present sedimentological study shows that tephra and volcanogenic sulphate were deposited and preserved within a small, surface-discharging playa that developed on the irregular upper surface of aeolian siltstones of the subjacent White River Group. Sulphate solutions (including perhaps sulphuric acid) percolated downward within the vadose zone, dissolving early formed smectite cement within underlying volcaniclastic sandstones, reddening these rocks along an irregular alteration front. Preserved fine-scale stratification within the sandstones precludes the possibility that reddening took place during pedogenesis. Displacive growth of gypsum at the playa centre folded tephra beds and forced tephra into underlying sandstones, forming elongate cones. The large mass fraction of gypsum (now replaced by calcite) in the playa sediments suggests a huge, long-distance delivery of sulphate aerosols. Some of the sulphate and tephra may have come from the same eruption, or the fine-grained tephra may simply have aided preservation of dry-fog sulphate derived from an unrelated, effusive eruption of lava.     

Evaluation of earthquake-induced strain in promoting mud eruptions: the case of Shamakhi–Gobustan–Absheron areas,Azerbaijan

Although a relationship between the occurrence of large earthquakes and the eruptions of close mud volcanoes is well known, several uncertainties remain on understanding the triggering mechanisms. In the present study, we evaluate both the static and dynamic strains induced by earthquakes in the substratum of mud volcanoes. We studied the effects of two earthquakes of M _w 6.18 and 6.08 occurred in the Caspian Sea on 25 November 2000 close to Baku city, Azerbaijan. A total of 33 eruptions occurred at 24 mud volcanoes within a maximum distance of 108 km from the epicentres in the 5 years following the earthquakes. The overall eruption rate in the studied area of the 50 years before the 2000 earthquakes was 1.24 that is much smaller than the eruption rate of 6.6 of the 5 years following these earthquakes. The largest number of eruptions occurred within 2 years from the earthquakes with the highest frequency within 6 months. Our calculated earthquake-induced static effects show that crustal dilatation might have triggered only seven eruptions at a maximum distance of about 60 km from the epicentres and within 3 years. Based on our data, dynamic rather than static strain is likely to have been the dominating “promoting” factor because it affected all the studied unrest volcanoes and its magnitude was much larger.     

The role and performance of ground-based networks in tracking the evolution of the ozone layer

In the 1980s, ground-based monitoring of the ozone layer played a key role in the discovery of the Antarctic Ozone Hole as well as in the first documentation of significant winter and spring long-term downward trends in the populated mid-latitude regions. The article summarizes the close-to-hundred-year-long history of ground-based measurements of stratospheric ozone, and more recent observations of constituents that influence its equilibrium. Ozone observations began long before the recognition of the impact of increasing emissions of manmade ozone-depleting substances on ozone and therefore on UV levels, human health, ecosystems and the Earth climate. The historical ozone observations prior to 1980s are used as a reference for the assessments of the state of the ozone layer linked to the enforcement of the Montreal Protocol. In this paper, we describe the worldwide monitoring networks and their ozone observations used to determine long-term trends with an accuracy of a few percent per decade. Since 1989, the ground-based monitoring activities have provided support for the amendments of the Montreal Protocol (MP). They include monitoring of (a) the ozone total column and the vertical distribution at global scale, (b) the ozone-depleting substances (ODS) related to the MP such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and their decomposition products in the stratosphere, and (c) the atmospheric species playing a role in ozone depletion, e.g., nitrogen oxides, water vapor, aerosols, polar stratospheric clouds. We highlight important accomplishments in the atmospheric monitoring performed by the Global Atmosphere Watch program (GAW) run under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). We also address the complementary roles of ground-based networks and satellite instruments. High-quality ground-based measurements have been used to evaluate ozone variabilities and long-term trends, assess chemistry climate models, and check the long-term stability of satellite data, including more recently the merged satellite time-series developed for the detection of ozone recovery at global scale, which might be further modified by climate change.     

Bristlecone pine tree rings and volcanic eruptions over the last 5000 yr

Many years of low growth identified in a western USA regional chronology of upper forest border bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva and Pinus aristata) over the last 5000 yr coincide with known large explosive volcanic eruptions and/or ice core signals of past eruptions. Over the last millennium the agreement between the tree-ring data and volcano/ice-core data is high: years of ring-width minima can be matched with known volcanic eruptions or ice-core volcanic signals in 86% of cases. In previous millennia, while there is substantial concurrence, the agreement decreases with increasing antiquity. Many of the bristlecone pine ring-width minima occurred at the same time as ring-width minima in high latitude trees from northwestern Siberia and/or northern Finland over the past 4000-5000 yr, suggesting climatically-effective events of at least hemispheric scale. In contrast with the ice-core records, the agreement between widely separated tree-ring records does not decrease with increasing antiquity. These data suggest specific intervals when the climate system was or was not particularly sensitive enough to volcanic forcing to affect the trees, and they augment the ice core record in a number of ways: by providing confirmation from an alternative proxy record for volcanic signals, by suggesting alternative dates for eruptions, and by adding to the list of years when volcanic events of global significance were likely, including the mid-2nd-millennium BC eruption of Thera.     

On Selection of Analog Volcanoes

Estimating the occurrence probability of volcanic eruptions with VEI ??3 is challenging in several aspects, including data scarcity. A?suggested approach has been to use a simple model, where eruptions are assumed to follow a Poisson process, augmenting the data used to estimate the eruption onset rate with that from several analog volcanoes. In this model the eruption onset rate is a random variable that follows a gamma distribution, the parameters of which are estimated by an empirical Bayes analysis. The selection of analog volcanoes is an important step that needs to be explicitly considered in this model, as we show that the analysis is not always feasible due to the required over-dispersion in the resulting negative binomial distribution for the numbers of eruptions. We propose a modification to the method which allows for both over-dispersed and under-dispersed data, and permits analog volcanoes to be chosen on other grounds than mathematical tractability.     

Radiative forcing and climate impact resulting from SO2 injections based on a 200,000-year record of Plinian eruptions along the Central American Volcanic Arc

We present for the first time a self-consistent methodology connecting volcanological field data to global climate model estimates for a regional time series of explosive volcanic events. Using the petrologic method, we estimated SO₂ emissions from 36 detected Plinian volcanic eruptions occurring at the Central American Volcanic Arc (CAVA) during the past 200,000 years. Together with simple parametrized relationships collected from past studies, we derive estimates of global maximum volcanic aerosol optical depth (AOD) and radiative forcing (RF) describing the effect of each eruption on radiation reaching the Earth’s surface. In parallel, AOD and RF time series for selected CAVA eruptions are simulated with the global aerosol model MAECHAM5-HAM, which shows a relationship between stratospheric SO₂ injection and maximum global mean AOD that is linear for smaller volcanic eruptions (<5 Mt SO₂) and nonlinear for larger ones (≥5 Mt SO₂) and is qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with the relationship used in the simple parametrized approximation. Potential climate impacts of the selected CAVA eruptions are estimated using an earth system model of intermediate complexity by RF time series derived by (1) directly from the global aerosol model and (2) from the simple parametrized approximation assuming a 12-month exponential decay of global AOD. We find that while the maximum AOD and RF values are consistent between the two methods, their temporal evolutions are significantly different. As a result, simulated global maximum temperature anomalies and the duration of the temperature response depend on which RF time series is used, varying between 2 and 3 K and 60 and 90 years for the largest eruption of the CAVA dataset. Comparing the recurrence time of eruptions, based on the CAVA dataset, with the duration of climate impacts, based on the model results, we conclude that cumulative impacts due to successive eruptions are unlikely. The methodology and results presented here can be used to calculate approximate volcanic forcings and potential climate impacts from sulfur emissions, sulfate aerosol or AOD data for any eruption that injects sulfur into the tropical stratosphere.     

Low level of stratospheric ozone near the Jharia coal field in India

The Indian reserve of coking coal is mainly located in the Jharia coal field in Jharkhand. Although air pollution due to oxides and dioxides of carbon, nitrogen and sulphur is reported to have increased in this area due to large-scale opencast mining and coal fires, no significant study on the possible impact of coal fires on the stratospheric ozone concentration has been reported so far. The possible impact of coal fires, which have been burning for more than 90 years on the current stratospheric ozone concentration has been investigated using satellite based data obtained from Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS MLS), Earth Observing System Microwave Limb Sounder (EOS MLS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) in this paper. The stratospheric ozone values for the years 1992–2007, in the 28–36 km altitude range near Jharia and places to its north are found to be consistently lower than those of places lying to its south (up to a radius of 1000 km around Jharia) by 4.0–20%. This low stratospheric ozone level around Jharia is being observed and reported for the first time. However, due to lack of systematic ground-based measurements of tropospheric ozone and vertical ozone profiles at Jharia and other far off places in different directions, it is difficult to conclude strongly on the existence of a relationship between pollution from coal fires and stratospheric ozone depletion.     

A model study on the decay of volcanic aerosol layer and verification with Pinatubo and El Chichon data

The time evolution of stratospheric aerosol layer formed after a volcanic eruption is studied taking into account the aerosol microphysical processes of growth, coagulation and sedimentation. Using a simple model we could explain the observed evolution of the Pinatubo volcanic layer which decayed in about 3 years. The experimental data obtained by Nd:YAG backscatter lidar over Ahmedabad further supports this finding. The data obtained after the El Chichon volcanic eruption also showed that the El Chichon aerosol layer decayed in about 3 years time. Thus, though the amount of SO₂ injected has been higher, in the case of Pinatubo, about two to three times more than El Chichon, it has resulted in the production of larger aerosol particles due to faster growth and coagulation processes, and subsequently a faster removal rate, to give more or less a similar background aerosol amount at the stratosphere in about 3 years time.     

Recent Arctic ozone depletion: Is there an impact of climate change?

After the well-reported record loss of Arctic stratospheric ozone of up to 38% in the winter 2010–2011, further large depletion of 27% occurred in the winter 2015–2016. Record low winter polar vortex temperatures, below the threshold for ice polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, persisted for one month in January 2016. This is the first observation of such an event and resulted in unprecedented dehydration/denitrification of the polar vortex. Although chemistry–climate models (CCMs) generally predict further cooling of the lower stratosphere with the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), significant differences are found between model results indicating relatively large uncertainties in the predictions. The link between stratospheric temperature and ozone loss is well understood and the observed relationship is well captured by chemical transport models (CTMs). However, the strong dynamical variability in the Arctic means that large ozone depletion events like those of 2010–2011 and 2015–2016 may still occur until the concentrations of ozone-depleting substances return to their 1960 values. It is thus likely that the stratospheric ozone recovery, currently anticipated for the mid-2030s, might be significantly delayed. Most important in order to predict the future evolution of Arctic ozone and to reduce the uncertainty of the timing for its recovery is to ensure continuation of high-quality ground-based and satellite ozone observations with special focus on monitoring the annual ozone loss during the Arctic winter.