Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

Tephra fallout associated with renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera is a serious threat to the Neapolitan area. In order to assess the hazards related with tephra loading, we have considered three different eruption scenarios representative of past activity: a high-magnitude event similar to the 4.1 ka Agnano-Monte Spina eruption, a medium-magnitude event, similar to the ∼3.8 ka Astroni 6 eruption, and a low-magnitude event similar to the Averno 2 eruption. The fallout deposits were reconstructed using the HAZMAP computational model, which is based on a semi-analytical solution of the two-dimensional advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation for volcanic tephra. The input parameters into the model, such as total erupted mass, eruption column height, and bulk grain-size and components distribution, were obtained by best-fitting field data. We carried out tens of thousands simulations using a statistical set of wind profiles, obtained from NOAA re-analysis. Probability maps, relative to the considered scenarios, were constructed for several tephra loads, such as 200, 300 and 400 kg/m². These provide a hazard assessment for roof collapses due to tephra loading that can be used for risk mitigation plans in the area.     

Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera,Italy

The Campi Flegrei caldera is a restless structure affected by general subsidence and ongoing resurgence of its central part. The persistent activity of the system and the explosive character of the volcanism lead to a very high volcanic hazard that, combined with intense urbanization, corresponds to a very high volcanic risk. One of the largest sources of uncertainty in volcanic hazard/risk assessment for Campi Flegrei is the spatial location of the future volcanic activity. This paper presents and discusses a long-term probability hazard map for vent opening in case of renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera, which shows the spatial conditional probability for the next vent opening, given that an eruption occurs. The map has been constructed by building a Bayesian inference scheme merging prior information and past data. The method allows both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties to be evaluated. The probability map of vent opening shows that two areas of relatively high probability are present within the active portion of the caldera, with a probability approximately doubled with respect to the rest of the caldera. The map has an immediate use in evaluating the areas of the caldera prone to the highest volcanic hazard. Furthermore, it represents an important ingredient in addressing the more general problem of quantitative volcanic hazards assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera.     

Volcanic hazard assessment at the restless Campi Flegrei caldera

Eruption forecasting and hazard assessments at the restless Campi Flegrei caldera, within the Neapolitan volcanic area, have been performed using stratigraphical, volcanological, structural and petrological data.On the basis of the reconstructed variation of eruption magnitude through time, we hypothesize that the most probable maximum expected event is a medium-magnitude explosive eruption, fed by trachytic magma. Such an eruption could likely occur in the north-eastern sector of the caldera floor that is under a tensile stress regime, when the ongoing deformation will generate mechanical failure of the rocks. A vent could open also in the western sector, at the intersection of two fault systems contemporaneously activated, as happened in the last eruption at Monte Nuovo. The eruption could likely be preceded by precursors apparent to the population, such as ground deformation, seismicity and increase in gas emissions. It will probably alternate between magmatic and phreatomagmatic phases with the generation of tephra fallout, and dilute and turbulent pyroclastic currents. During and/or after the eruption, the re-mobilization of ash by likely heavy rains, could probably generate mud flows.In order to perform a zoning of the territory in relation to the expected volcanic hazards, we have constructed a comprehensive hazard map. On this map are delimited (I) areas of variable probability of opening of a new vent, (II) areas which could be affected by variable load of fallout deposits, and (III) areas over which pyroclastic currents could flow. The areas in which a vent could likely open have been defined on the basis of the dynamics of the ongoing deformation of the caldera floor. To construct the fallout hazard map we have used the frequency of deposition of fallout beds thicker than 10 cm, the frequency of load on the ground by tephra fallout and the direction of dispersal axes of the deposits of the last 5 ka, and the limit load of collapse for the variable types of roof construction. The pyroclastic-current hazard map is based on the areal distribution and frequency of pyroclastic-current deposits of the last 5 ka.Editorial Responsibility: T. Druitt     

A methodology for the evaluation of long-term volcanic risk from pyroclastic flows in Campi Flegrei (Italy)

The volcanological history of Campi Flegrei suggests that the most frequent eruptions are characterized by the emplacement of pyroclastic flow and surge deposits erupted from different vents scattered over a 150-km² caldera. The evaluation of volcanic risk in volcanic fields is complex because of the lack of a central vent. To approach this problem, we subdivided the entire area of Campi Flegrei into a regular grid and evaluated the relative spatial probability of opening of vents based on geological, geophysical and geochemical data. We evaluated the volcanic risk caused by pyroclastic flows based on the formula proposed by UNESCO (1972), R=H×V×Va, where H is the hazard, V is the vulnerability and Va is the value of the elements at risk. The product H×V was obtained by performing simulations of type eruptions centered in each cell of the grid. The simulation is based on the energy cone scheme proposed by Sheridan and Malin [J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 17 (1983) 187–202], hypothesizing a column collapse height of 100 m for eruptions of VEI=3 and 300 m for eruptions of VEI=4 with a slope angle of 6°. Each simulation has been given the relative probability value associated with the corresponding cell. We made use of the GIS software ArcView 3.2 to evaluate the intersection between the energy cone and the topography. The superposition of the areas invaded by pyroclastic flows (124 simulations for VEI=3 and 37 for VEI=4) was used to obtain the relative hazard map of the area. The relative volcanic risk map is obtained by superimposing the urbanization maps.     

Averno tuff ring in Campi Flegrei (south Italy)

The tuff ring of Averno (3700 years BP) is a wide maar-type, lake-filled volcano which formed during one of the most recent explosive eruptions inside the Campi Flegrei caldera.The eruptive products consist of (a) a basal coarse unit, intercalated ballistic fallout breccia, subplinian pumice deposits and pyroclastic surge bedsets and (b) an upper fine-grained, stratified, pyroclastic surge sequence.During the deposition of the lower unit both purely magmatic (lapilli breccia) and hydromagmatic episodes (wavy and planar bedded, fine ash pyroclastic surge bedsets) coexisted. The hydromagmatic deposits exhibit both erosive and depositional features. The upper unit mostly comprises fine grained, wet pyroclastic surge deposits. The pyroclastic surges were controlled by a highly irregular pre-existing topography, produced by volcano-tectonic dislocation of older tuff rings and cones.Both the upper and lower units show decreasing depletion of fines with increasing distance from the vent. The ballistic fallout layers, however, exhibit only a weak increase in fines with distance from the vent, in spite of marked fining of the lapilli and blocks. The deposits consist dominantly of moderately to highly vesicular juvenile material, generated by primary magmatic volatile driven fragmentation followed by episodes of near-surface magma-water interaction.The evolution of the eruption toward increased fragmentation and a more hydromagmatic character may reflect that the progressive depletion in magmatic volatiles and a decrease in conduit pressure during the last stage of the eruption, possibly associated with a widening of the vent at sea level.     

The 1538 Monte Nuovo eruption (Campi Flegrei,Italy)

On 29 September 1538 a week-long eruption began in Campi Flegrei forming a new volcano, Monte Nuovo. From contemporary accounts of the eruption, it has been possible to reconstruct the main phases of activity. These phases may be correlated with different depositional units identified in the field. The eruption opened with a hydromagmatic phase, during which a large amount of external water (meteoric or sea water) was able to interact with the magma. The exhaustion of the water supply and decrease in volatile content initiated a change in the dynamic conditions of eruption, which became more purely magmatic in character and less explosive.     

Hydrothermal origin for sustained Long-Period (LP) activity at Campi Flegrei Volcanic Complex,Italy

We present a detailed analysis of the source properties of Long-Period (LP) signals recorded at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy) during the last (2005–2006) mini-uplift episode. Moment Tensor inversion via full-waveform modelling of broad-band seismograms indicates a crack-like source with a significant volumetric component. From auto-regressive modelling of the signal's tail we evaluate the dominant frequency and the attenuation factor of the oscillating source. Considering the acoustic properties of a fluid-filled crack, these values are consistent with the resonant oscillations of a crack filled by a water–gas mixture at variable gas–volume fraction. For these fluids, the crack size would be on the order of 40–420 m, a size range which is consistent with the spatial spreading of LP hypocenters. Analysis of temporally-correlated time series of seismological and geochemical data indicates that climaxing of LP activity was preceded by swarms of volcano-tectonic (VT) events and rapidly followed by a consistent increase of both thermal emissions and gas fluxes recorded at the surface (1 month — 2/3 days, respectively). Following these observations, we propose a conceptual model where VT activity increases permeability of the medium, thus favouring fluid mobility. As a consequence, the hydrothermal system experiences pressure perturbations able to trigger its resonant, LP oscillations.     

Stress pattern at Campi Flegrei from focal mechanisms of the 1982–1984 earthquakes (southern Italy)

Campi Flegrei is a Holocene volcanic area in the Campanian Plain (Southern Italy) within the Apennine Chain, a neogenic thrust belt built up since the Middle Miocene. The volcanic complex consists of a c. 12-km-diameter caldera containing several monogenetic volcanoes, the youngest of which (Monte Nuovo) erupted in 1538. Since at least Roman times, the area has also been affected by slow vertical movements (bradiseismic activity). Between 1982 and 1985, this slow motion was interrupted by a period of more rapid displacement which caused a maximum uplift of 180 cm in the town of Pozzuoli. To model the local stress field associated with the uplift, the Angelier inversion technique has been applied using the focal mechanisms of forty-nine earthquakes which occurred between April 1982 and December 1984. The results show that doming coupled with a regional extensional strain can account for the seismic phenomena that affected the area.     

The Averno 2 fissure eruption: a recent small-size explosive event at the Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy)

The Averno 2 eruption (3,700 ± 50 a B.P.) was an explosive low-magnitude event characterized by magmatic and phreatomagmatic explosions, generating mainly fall and surge beds, respectively. It occurred in the Western sector of the Campi Flegrei caldera (Campanian Region, South Italy) at the intersection of two active fault systems, oriented NE and NW. The morphologically complex crater area, largely filled by the Averno lake, resulted from vent activation and migration along the NE-trending fault system. The eruption generated a complex sequence of pyroclastic deposits, including pumice fall deposits in the lower portion, and prevailing surge beds in the intermediate-upper portion. The pyroclastic sequence has been studied through stratigraphical, morphostructural and petrological investigations, and subdivided into three members named A through C. Member A was emplaced during the first phase of the eruption mainly by magmatic explosions which generated columns reaching a maximum height of 10 km. During this phase the eruption reached its climax with a mass discharge rate of 3.2 10⁶ kg/s. Intense fracturing and fault activation favored entry of a significant amount of water into the system, which produced explosions driven by variably efficient water-magma interaction. These explosions generated wet to dry surge deposits that emplaced Member B and C, respectively. Isopachs and isopleths maps, as well as areal distribution of ballistic fragments and facies variation of surge deposits allow definition of four vents that opened along a NE oriented, 2 km long fissure. The total volume of magma extruded during the eruption has been estimated at about 0.07 km³ (DRE). The erupted products range in composition from initial, weakly peralkaline alkali-trachyte, to last-emplaced alkali-trachyte. Isotopic data and modeling suggest that mixing occurred during the Averno 2 eruption between a more evolved, less radiogenic stored magma, and a less evolved, more radiogenic magma that entered the shallow reservoir to trigger the eruption. The early phases of the eruption, during which the vent migrated from SW to the center of the present lake, were fed by the more evolved, uppermost magma, while the following phases extruded the less evolved, lowermost magma. Integration of the geological and petrological results suggests that the Averno 2 complex eruption was fed from a dyke-shaped shallow reservoir intruded into the NE-SW fault system bordering to the west the La Starza resurgent block, within the caldera floor.     

Modelling gravity variations consistent with ground deformation in the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

In recent years (1970–72 and 1982–84) two inflation episodes took place in the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy), characterized by significant ground uplift and gravity variations. An elastic half-space model with vertical density stratification is employed to compute the displacement field and the gravity variations produced by the deformation of buried layers, following the inflation of a spherically symmetric deformation source. Contributions to gravity variations are produced by dilation/contraction of the medium, by the displacements of density interfaces (the free surface and subsurface layers) and of source boundaries and, possibly, by new mass input from remote distances into the source volume. Three cases were examined in detail: In case I, the magma chamber is identified as the deformation source and volume and pressure increase in the magma chamber is due to input of new magma from remote distances; in case II deformation is due to magma differentiation within the magma chamber (deformation source with constant mass); in case III the geothermal system is identified as the deformation source and a pressure increase, possibly driven by the exsolution of high temperature and high pressure volatiles in the magma chamber, is assumed to play a dominant role. From the comparison between measured and computed gravity residuals (free-air-corrected gravity variations) we can assess that, in case I, an inflation source with constant density would predict gravity residuals compatible with observations, whereas an expansion at constant mass (case II) would predict gravity residuals much lower than observed. The resolving power of gravity data however prevents accurate assessment of the density of the emplaced material. In case III, the pervasive density increase of the geothermal fluids induced by pressure increase is assumed to be the main source of gravity variations. The average porosity value required for this model to match both the ground deformation and the gravity residuals is found to be ˜10%, a value which is compatible with measured porosity values at Campi Flegrei in deep wells. The subsidence phases following both inflation episodes and the gravity residuals during subsidence lead us to consider case III as more plausible, even if a suitable combination of cases I and III cannot be discarded.     

Eruptive versus non-eruptive behaviour of large calderas: the example of Campi Flegrei caldera (southern Italy)

Caldera eruptions are among the most hazardous of natural phenomena. Many calderas around the world are active and are characterised by recurrent uplift and subsidence periods due to the dynamics of their magma reservoirs. These periods of unrest are, in some cases, accompanied by eruptions. At Campi Flegrei caldera (CFc), which is an area characterised by very high volcanic risk, the recurrence of this behaviour has stimulated the study of the rock rheology around the magma chamber, in order to estimate the likelihood of an eruption. This study considers different scenarios of shallow crustal behaviour, taking into account the earlier models of CFc ground deformation and caldera eruptions, and including recent geophysical investigations of the area. A semi-quantitative evaluation of the different factors that lead to magma storage or to its eruption (such as magma chamber size, wall-rock viscosity, temperature, and regional tectonic strain rate) is reported here for elastic and viscoelastic conditions. Considering the large magmatic sources of the CFc ignimbrite eruptions (400–2,000 km³) and a wall-rock viscosity between 10¹⁸ and 10²⁰ Pa s, the conditions for eruptive failure are difficult to attain. Smaller source dimensions (a few cubic kilometres) promote the condition for fracture (eruption) rather than for the flow of wall rock. We also analyse the influence of the regional extensional stress regime on magma storage and eruptions, and the thermal stress as a possible source of caldera uplift. The present study also emphasises the difficulty of distinguishing eruption and non-eruption scenarios at CFc, since an unambiguous model that accounts for the rock rheology, magma-source dimensions and locations and regional stress field influences is still lacking.     

Scaling of peak ground motions from digital recordings of small earthquakes at Campi Flegrei,southern Italy

The dependence of peak ground acceleration and velocity on seismic moment is studied for a set of small earthquakes (0.7<M _L<3.2) recorded digitally at distances of a few km in the Campi Flegrei volcanic area near Naples, Italy, during the ground uplift episode of 1982–1984. Numerical simulations, using the -square spectral model with constant stress drop and ane ^–kf high frequency decay, fit well both the velocity and acceleration data for an averagek=0.015. The observed ground motions in the 1–24 Hz frequency band appear to consist of radiation from simple sources modified only slightly by attenuation effects. Moreover, the scaling of peak values agrees closely with those determined in nonvolcanic areas, once the difference in stress drop is taken into account.     

Understanding the Seismic Velocity Structure of Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy): From the Laboratory to the Field Scale

We report laboratory measurements of P- and S-wave velocities on samples of tuff from Campi Flegrei (Italy), and a new tomographic velocity map of the Campi Flegrei caldera. Laboratory measurements were made in a hydrostatic pressure vessel during both increasing and decreasing effective pressure cycles. Selected samples were also thermally stressed at temperatures up to 600°C to induce thermal crack damage. Acoustic emission output was recorded throughout each thermal stressing experiment, and velocities were measured after thermal stressing. Laboratory P- and S-wave velocities are initially low for the tuff, which has an initial porosity of ~45%, but both increase by between 25 and 50% over the effective pressure range of 5 to 80 MPa, corresponding to a decrease of porosity of ~70%. Marked velocity hysteresis, due to inelastic damage processes, is also observed in samples subjected to a pressurization-depressurization cycle. Tomographic seismic velocity distributions obtained from field recordings are in general agreement with the laboratory measurements. Integration of the laboratory ultrasonic and seismic tomography data indicates that the tuffs of the Campi Flegrei caldera can be water or gas saturated, and shows that inelastic pore collapse and cracking produced by mechanical and thermal stress can significantly change the velocity properties of Campi Flegrei tuffs at depth. These changes need to be taken into account in accurately interpreting the crustal structure from tomographic data.     

Seismic images and rock properties of the very shallow structure of Campi Flegrei caldera (southern Italy)

In September 2001, an extensive active-seismic investigation (Serapis experiment) was carried out in the Gulfs of Naples and Pozzuoli, with the aim of investigating and reconstructing the shallow crustal structure of the Campi Flegrei caldera, and possibly identifying its feeding system at depth. The present study provides a joint analysis of the very shallow seismic reflection data and tomographic images based on the Serapis dataset. This is achieved by reflection seismic sections obtained by the 3D data gathering and through refined P-velocity images of the shallowest layer of Pozzuoli Gulf (z < 1,000 m). From the refined Vp model, the overall picture of the velocity distribution confirms the presence of a complex arc-shaped anomaly that borders the bay offshore. The deeper part of the anomaly (beneath 700 m, with Vp > 3,500 m/s) correlates with units made up of agglomerate tuffs and interbedded lava, which form the southern edge of the caldera, which was probably formed following the two large ignimbritic eruptions that marked the evolutionary history of the area under study. The upper part of the anomaly that tends to split into two parallel arcs is correlated with dikes, volcanic mounds and hydrothermal alteration zones noted in previous shallow reflection seismic analyses. The depth of the transition between the upper and lower parts of the anomaly is characterized by an abrupt Vp increase on the one-dimensional (1D) profiles extracted from the 3D tomographic model and by the presence of a strong reflector located at about 0.6/0.7 s Two Way Time (TWT) on Common Mid Point gathers. The move-out velocity analysis and stack of the P–P and P–S reflections at the layer bottom allowed to estimate relatively high Vp/Vs values (3.7 ± 0.9). This hypothesis has been tested by a theoretical rock physical modeling of the Vp/Vs ratio as a function of porosity suggesting that the shallow layer is likely formed by incoherent, water saturated, volcanic and marine sediments that filled Pozzuoli Bay during the post-caldera activity.     

Hazard assessment at volcanic fields: the Campi Flegrei case history

Volcanological analysis of the 10 000 yr –1538 explosive activity at Campi Flegrei shows that the most common explosive eruptions are characterized by the emplacement of flow or surge deposits, originating from the interaction between magma and shallow and/or sea water. The minimum volumes of pyroclastic products range between 0.04 and 0.7 km³; the proximal areas covered by these products range from 3–4 to 40–50 km². The pyroclastic flow and surge deposits occurring inside the caldera have been strongly controlled by pre-existent morphology; because of this, the area of present Napoli city was blanketed by approximately 5 m of pyroclastic deposits, during the last 5000 yr.Previous analysis suggests that the presence of even very low topographic obstacles may influence pyroclastic density current run out such that future eruptive deposits would mainly be confined inside the caldera rim. We suggest that a future eruption at Campi Flegrei would not seriously involve the urbanized area of Napoli city located on the hills. On the contrary, the plains located on the eastern side of the caldera (Fuorigrotta, Bagnoli) would be the most damaged area.     

Magma chamber evolution prior to the Campanian Ignimbrite and Neapolitan Yellow Tuff eruptions (Campi Flegrei,Italy)

The Campi Flegrei (Campanian Region, Italy) experienced two cataclysmic caldera-forming eruptions which produced the Campanian Ignimbrite (39 ka, CI) and the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (15 ka, NYT). We studied the minor eruptions before both these large events to understand magma chamber evolution leading towards such catastrophic eruptions. Major, trace element, and Sr and Nd isotope compositions of pre-Campanian Ignimbrite and pre-Neapolitan Yellow Tuff products define distinct geochemical groups, which are here interpreted as distinct magma batches. These batches do not show any transitional trend towards the CI and NYT eruptions. The CI and NYT systems are decoupled geochemically and isotopically. At least one of the pre-CI and one of the pre-NYT erupted magma batches qualifies as mixing endmembers for the large CI and NYT eruptions, and thus, must have been stored in reservoirs for some time to remain available for the CI and NYT eruptions. The least evolved, isotopically distinct magma compositions that are typical of the last phases of the NYT and CI eruptions did not occur before caldera-forming events. Based on the new data, we propose the following scenario: Multiple magma chambers with distinct compositions existed below the Campi Flegrei before the CI and NYT eruptions and remained generally separated for some time unless new magma was recharged. In each case, one of the residing magma reservoirs was recharged by a new large-volume magma input of intermediate composition from a deeper differentiating magma reservoir. This may have triggered the coalescence of the previously separated reservoirs into one large chamber which fed the cataclysmic caldera-forming eruption. Large magma chambers in the Campi Flegrei may therefore be ephemeral features, interrupted by periods of evolution in individual, separated magma reservoirs.     

Merging active and passive data sets in traveltime tomography: The case study of Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy)

We propose a strategy for merging both active and passive data sets in linearized tomographic inversion. We illustrate this in the reconstruction of 3D images of a complex volcanic structure, the Campi Flegrei caldera, located in the vicinity of the city of Naples, southern Italy. The caldera is occasionally the site of significant unrests characterized by large ground uplifts and seismicity. The P and S velocity models of the caldera structure are obtained by a tomographic inversion based on travel times recorded during two distinct experiments. The first data set is composed of 606 earthquakes recorded in 1984 and the second set is composed of recordings for 1528 shots produced during the SERAPIS experiment in 2001. The tomographic inversion is performed using an improved method based on an accurate finite‐difference traveltime computation and a simultaneous inversion of both velocity models and earthquake locations. In order to determine the adequate inversion parameters and relative data weighting factors, we perform massive synthetic simulations allowing one to merge the two types of data optimally. The proper merging provides high resolution velocity models, which allow one to reliably retrieve velocity anomalies over a large part of the tomography area. The obtained images confirm the presence of a high P velocity ring in the southern part of the bay of Pozzuoli and extends its trace inland as compared to previous results. This annular anomaly represents the buried trace of the rim of the Campi Flegrei caldera. Its shape at 1.5 km depth is in good agreement with the location of hydrothermalized lava inferred by gravimetric data modelling. The Vp/Vs model confirms the presence of two characteristic features. At about 1 km depth a very high Vp/Vs anomaly is observed below the town of Pozzuoli and is interpreted as due to the presence of rocks that contain fluids in the liquid phase. A low Vp/Vs body extending at about 3–4 km depth below a large part of the caldera is interpreted as the top of formations that are enriched in gas under supercritical conditions.     

Another look at the calculation of fallout tephra volumes

The calculation of volumes of fallout tephra layers is difficult because of the nonlinear dependence of thickness on area and because of the extrapolations required at the vent and in distal regions. Calculation using the trapezoidal rule, straight lines on log-log plots of area versus thickness, straight lines on plots of log thickness versus area^1/2, and the crystal-concentration method are reviewed and the problems with each method discussed. The method using straight lines on plots of log thickness versus area^1/2 is the most geologically reasonable because most deposits thin exponentially from source and therefore plot as straight lines using these coordinates. Errors and uncertainties in previous derivations for using this method are discussed and more general formulas presented. The method is also used to gain perspective on the missing distal volumes calculated by the crystal-concentration method compared to those calculated based only on isopach data.