Tsunamigenic Earthquakes: Past and Present Milestones

We review a number of events which, taken individually, have significantly affected our understanding of the generation of tsunamis by earthquake sources and our efforts at mitigating their hazards, notably through the development of warning algorithms. Starting with the 1700 Cascadia earthquake, we examine how significant tsunamis have changed our views in fields as diverse as seismotectonics, the diversity of earthquake cycles, the development of warning algorithms, the response of communities at risk to warnings, and their education, the latter being either formal or rooted in ancestral heritage. We discuss in detail lessons from the 2004 Sumatra disasters and review the performance of warning centers and the response of affected populations during the nine significant tsunamis which have taken place since 2004.     

Sources of Tsunami and Tsunamigenic Earthquakes in Subduction Zones

—We classified tsunamigenic earthquakes in subduction zones into three types earth quakes at the plate interface (typical interplate events), earthquakes at the outer rise, within the subducting slab or overlying crust (intraplate events), and "tsunami earthquakes" that generate considerably larger tsunamis than expected from seismic waves. The depth range of a typical interplate earthquake source is 10–40km, controlled by temperature and other geological parameters. The slip distribution varies both with depth and along-strike. Recent examples show very different temporal change of slip distribution in the Aleutians and the Japan trench. The tsunamigenic coseismic slip of the 1957 Aleutian earthquake was concentrated on an asperity located in the western half of an aftershock zone 1200km long. This asperity ruptured again in the 1986 Andreanof Islands and 1996 Delarof Islands earthquakes. By contrast, the source of the 1994 Sanriku-oki earthquake corresponds to the low slip region of the previous interplate event, the 1968 Tokachi-oki earthquake. Tsunamis from intraplate earthquakes within the subducting slab can be at least as large as those from interplate earthquakes; tsunami hazard assessments must include such events. Similarity in macroseismic data from two southern Kuril earthquakes illustrates difficulty in distinguishing interplate and slab events on the basis of historical data such as felt reports and tsunami heights. Most moment release of tsunami earthquakes occurs in a narrow region near the trench, and the concentrated slip is responsible for the large tsunami. Numerical modeling of the 1996 Peru earthquake confirms this model, which has been proposed for other tsunami earthquakes, including 1896 Sanriku, 1946 Aleutian and 1992 Nicaragua.     

Multifractal Analysis of Earthquakes in the Southeastern Iran-Bam Region

Earthquakes in Iran and neighbouring regions are closely connected to their position within the geologically active Alpine-Himalayan belt. Modern tectonic activity is forced by the convergent movements between two plates: The Arabian plate, including Saudi Arabia, the Persian Gulf and the Zagros Ranges of Iran, and the Eurasian plate. The intensive seismic activity in this region is recorded with shallow focal depth and magnitude rising as high as M_w = 7.8. The study region can be attributed to a highly complex geodynamic process and therefore is well suited for multifractal seismicity analysis. Multifractal analysis of earthquakes (m_b ≥ 3) occurring during 1973 – 2006 led to the detection of a clustering pattern in the narrow time span prior to all the large earthquakes: M_w = 7.8 on 16.9.1978; M_w = 6.8 on 26.12.2003; M_w = 7.7 on 10.5.97. Based on the spatio-temporal clustering pattern of events, the potential for future large events can be assessed. Spatio-temporal clustering of events apparently indicates a highly stressed region, an asperity or weak zone from which the rupture propagation eventually nucleates, causing large earthquakes. This clustering pattern analysis done on a well-constrained catalogue for most of the fault systems of known seismicity may eventually aid in the preparedness and earthquake disaster mitigation.     

来自网上的动态地震图

现在在因特网上可以得到动态地震数据。全球地震台网 ( GSN)的两个数据采集中心已开发了近实时的服务器 ,使我们可直接得到来自 GSN台站的数据。两种类型的数据服务器都可由他们的缩写知道 :L ISS——动态因特网地震服务器 ,是由美国地质调查局阿尔伯克基地震实验室 ( ASL)开发的 ;NRTS—近实时系统 ,是由加州大学圣地亚哥分校开发的。虽然这篇文章着重于 L ISS,但 NRTS有着相似的功能。地震台网阿尔伯克基地震实验室现在运行着大约75个 GSN台站和加州大学圣地亚哥分校( UCSD)加速度检波器国际部署 ( IDA)工程小组大约 3 3个 …     

中国大陆地震活动时空分布多重分形特征

利用多重分形分析方法,考察了中国大陆各构造区地震活动广义应变释放时间和空间分布的多重分形特征。结果表明,中国大陆各构造区地震活动广义应变释放时空分布的多重分形特征差别明显。     

Multifractal and Chaotic Analysis of Vrancea (Romania) Intermediate-depth Earthquakes: Investigation of the Temporal Distribution of Events

The Vrancea seismic region contains an isolated cluster of events beneath the Carpathian Arc Bend in Romania, dipping to about 200 km depth. Seismic activity mainly occurs at intermediate depths (h > 60 km). The main goal of the paper is to perform an in-depth, complex analysis of the occurrence times of these intermediate-depth events. We also try to show the versatility of the methods used to characterize different aspects of the seismicity evolution and to offer a user-friendly software toolbox to do most of the related computations. The earthquake catalog used in this study spans from 1974 to 2002 and includes only the intermediate-depth events. In the first part of the paper, we analyze the multifractal characteristics of the temporal distribution of earthquakes. The study reveals two distinct scaling regimes. At small scales we found a clear nonhomogeneous, multifractal pattern, while at large scales the temporal distribution of events shows a monofractal, and close to Poissonian (random), behavior. The multifractal behavior at small scales (minutes-hours) is shown to be clearly an effect of the short aftershock sequences that occurred after some major Vrancea earthquakes. In the second part of the paper we analyze whether our temporal series shows a persistent (or anti-persistent) long-term behavior, by using the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) method. The results suggest that the analyzed temporal series of Vrancea earthquakes is a non-correlated process. In part three of the paper we seek to determine whether the dynamics of our earthquake system (described by the occurrence time of Vrancea earthquakes) is deterministically chaotic, deriving from a rather simple evolution law, or whether it is stochastic and is generated by a system that possesses many degrees of freedom. The results suggest that our signal is stochastic (probably does not possess an attractor). The limited time-span of the catalog and the analysis performed in this paper cannot rule out the emergence of an interesting, quasi-deterministic and low-dimensional structure in the case of major Vrancea earthquakes.Acknowledgement One of the authors (BE) is grateful to the Japanese Ministry of Education for providing him a Monbusho scholarship for studying in DPRI, Kyoto University. We thank Z.R. Struzik, M Holschneider, J. Mori and D. Kaplan for their useful comments, and acknowledge the support of the staff of DPRI, Kyoto University and the National Inst. for Earth Physics, Bucharest. We thank the two reviewers, M.B. Geilikman and M. Anghel, for their useful suggestions which improved the quality of this work.     

Multifractal Approach to Time Clustering of Earthquakes. Application to Mt. Vesuvio Seismicity

—The clustering structure of the Vesuvian earthquakes occurring is investigated by means of statistical tools: the inter-event time distribution, the running mean and the multifractal analysis. The first cannot clearly distinguish between a Poissonian process and a clustered one due to the difficulties of clearly distinguishing between an exponential distribution and a power law one. The running mean test reveals the clustering of the earthquakes, but looses information about the structure of the distribution at global scales. The multifractal approach can enlighten the clustering at small scales, while the global behaviour remains Poissonian. Subsequently the clustering of the events is interpreted in terms of diffusive processes of the stress in the earth crust.     

Conditional Probability Approach of the Assessment of Tsunami Potential: Application in Three Tsunamigenic Regions of the Pacific Ocean

We develop stochastic approaches to determine the potential for tsunami generation from earthquakes by combining two interrelated time series, one for the earthquake events, and another for the tsunami events. Conditional probabilities for the occurrence of tsunamis as a function of time are calculated by assuming that the inter-arrival times of the past events are lognormally distributed and by taking into account the time of occurrence of the last event in the time series. An alternative approach is based on the total probabilitiy theorem. Then, the probability for the tsunami occurrence equals the product of the ratio, r (= tsunami generating earthquakes/total number of earthquakes) by the conditional probability for the occurrence of the next earthquake in the zone. The probabilities obtained by the total probability theorem are bounded upwards by the ratio r and, therefore, they are not comparable with the conditional probabilities. The two methods were successfully tested in three characteristic seismic zones of the Pacific Ocean: South America, Kuril-Kamchatka and Japan. For time intervals of about 20 years and over the probabilities exceed 0.50 in the three zones. It has been found that the results depend on the approach applied. In fact, the conditional probabilities of tsunami occurrence in Japan are slightly higher than in the South America region and in Kuril-Kamchatka they are clearly lower than in South America. Probabilities calculated by the total probability theorem are systematically higher in South America than in Japan while in Kuril-Kamchatka they are significantly lower than in Japan. The stochastic techniques tested in this paper are promising for the tsunami potential assessment in other tsunamigenic regions of the world.     

T Waves from the 1998 Papua New Guinea Earthquake and its Aftershocks: Timing the Tsunamigenic Slump

— T waves recorded at hydrophone and seismic stations following the Papua New Guinea earthquake of 17 July 1998 and its aftershocks show that a small event at 09:02 GMT featured source properties incompatible with an elastic dislocation of appropriate body-wave magnitude (m _b=4.4). These include an exceptional duration (47 s at the Wake Island hydrophone station WK31), a spectrum rich in high frequencies (7 to 12 Hz), and a generally low spectral amplitude. These characteristics can be explained by the model of an underwater slump, accelerating from a standstill and eventually slowing down. The relocation of the 09:02 event is compatible with its location within an amphitheater inside which shipboard cruises in 1998 and 1999 documented the presence of a 4 – km³ geologically fresh slump. We propose that the slump took place at 09:02 on 17 July 1998, i.e., 13 minutes after the mainshock, and that it generated the locally catastrophic tsunami, whose properties (amplitude and distribution of runup; timing) could not be explained by a dislocation model.     

潜在地震对我国南海开发和建设影响的初步考虑

南海地区位于欧亚板块、太平洋板块和印度板块交汇处,地质构造十分复杂。考虑并关注潜在地震对南海区域的影响,可以有效降低地震带来的危害。我国目前已经建立了比较完备的陆地地区建、构筑物的抗震设计规范,但是针对海域的工程地震研究还比较少,地震动参数特征和地震动衰减规律尚是空白。基于上述考虑本文分析了南海及临区的地震构造,通过对历史地震资料分析表明：（1）南海北部历史上发生过7级以上大地震,该区域的近海工程要考虑琼粤滨海断裂带和红河断裂带引发的地震影响;（2）南海中部区域要更加关注台南至菲律宾吕宋岛西侧俯冲带的影响,该区域地震易发、多发,6级左右的中强震较多,强震和大震也偶有发生;（3）俯冲带地震与浅地壳地震的特征有一定差异,因而有必要对俯冲带板内、板缘地震做专门分析和研究。     

潜在地震对我国南海开发和建设影响的初步考虑

南海地区位于欧亚板块、太平洋板块和印度板块交汇处,地质构造十分复杂。考虑并关注潜在地震对南海区域的影响,可以有效降低地震带来的危害。我国目前已经建立了比较完备的陆地地区建、构筑物的抗震设计规范,但是针对海域的工程地震研究还比较少,地震动参数特征和地震动衰减规律尚是空白。基于上述考虑本文分析了南海及临区的地震构造,通过对历史地震资料分析表明：（1）南海北部历史上发生过7级以上大地震,该区域的近海工程要考虑琼粤滨海断裂带和红河断裂带引发的地震影响;（2）南海中部区域要更加关注台南至菲律宾吕宋岛西侧俯冲带的影响,该区域地震易发、多发,6级左右的中强震较多,强震和大震也偶有发生;（3）俯冲带地震与浅地壳地震的特征有一定差异,因而有必要对俯冲带板内、板缘地震做专门分析和研究。     

源自海洋的地震风险

某些最强的地震源自遥远的海底断层。目前,地球物理学家正在铺设传感器网络,以密切监视这些"潜伏杀手"的动态。     

宏观异常与地震关系的统计分析

通过对《中国震例》中所辑宏观异常的统计分析认为,随着震级的增大,震前出现宏观异常的概率逐步增大,震级大的地震震前宏观异常数量也相对较多。宏观异常大多数为短期和临震异常,多数发生在距震中100km的范围内。在时间上,宏观异常开始时数量较少;随着时间的推进,异常不断增多;越近临震,异常数量越多,直到发震达到高潮。在地域上则表现出始于震中、然后向外围发展、最后震中爆发式增多的特点。     

天山地区地貌系统的自仿射分形与多重分形特征研究

利用标准偏差法和固定质量法，研究了新疆天山地区跨越多个不同构造地貌单元的两条地形剖线的自仿射分形和多重分形特征。结果表明：在所研究的标度范围内，两条剖线均表现出了不同特征的多度域分形性质，多重分形谱Dq的形态和值域范围也呈现出不同特征研究认为，地貌形态并不是完全随机的，而是一种确定性随机，不同标度区间的分维值表征了内外营力作用的方式，强度和空间尺度，同时提出地貌宏观与微观作用尺度的分界点在5km左右。这些结果对地貌动力学定量研究具有重要意义。     

Discussion on Principles and Methods in Estimating the Maximum Potential Earthquakes in Low Seismicity Areas

Five principles and methods are proposed for estimating the maximum potential earthquakesin low seismicity areas,and their applicabilities are discussed,taking Sichuan basin as asample area.The proposed principles and methods are not only on the grounds of thegeological tectonics but also considered fully the mutual complementation between geologicaland seismological methods.They will be helpful to the study of engineering seismology andthe assessment of designing ground motion parameters in low seismicity areas.     

论弱地震活动区评定最大潜在地震的原则和方法

本文针对弱地震活动区,提出了评定最大潜在地震的５项原则和方法,并以四川盆地为例论证其适宜性。本文所述的原则和方法不仅有明确的地质构造依据,而且充分考虑了地质学方法和地震学方法的互补性。这对于推进工程地震研究,更为合理地评定弱地震活动区的设计地震动参数是有益的。     

赣中西地区地震波谱分析

选取赣中西地区23个ML≥2.0地震的单台波形数据,基于遗传算法,分别采用ω-3和ω-2震源谱模型对每个地震每个水平向的振幅谱进行搜索,得到2组低频水平Ω0和拐角频率fc.目测发现大多数地震震源谱符合ω-3模型,除1个地震的fc接近6 Hz外,其余22个地震的fc均小于3.51 Hz,明显偏低.这23个地震除fc接近6...     

孤立中强地震的潜在震源区划分

提出了孤立中强地震的潜在震源区划分其参数确定的思路和方法，即在综合考虑孤立中强地震所在地震区的总体地震构造特征与地震活动水平的基础上，利用历史地震等震线，余震分布，区域应力场及震源机制等资料，确定其潜在震源区的参数。     

几次大地震前后地电场中长期变化分析与研究

地电场是地球表面天然存在的电场, 包括大地电场和自然电场。 利用“合成能量累加”方法, 分析处理了甘肃省、 青海省、 四川省、 重庆市所辖部分台站2007年7月至2017年12月的地电场观测数据, 研究和讨论了汶川8.0级地震等几次大地震前后地电场中长期异常变化特征。 研究结果显示, 几次M_S7.0以上大地震前后, 均出现了地电场区域性准同步异常变化; 地电场异常变化经历了“震前—发震—震后”三个阶段, 震前和震后变化比较明显, 发震期变化相对平稳, 时间跨度达12个月以上; 地电场异常变化主要沿构造带分布, 变化强度随震中距的增加而减小。