Seismic hazard impact of the Lower Tagus Valley Fault Zone (SW Iberia)

The seismic hazard of SW Iberia is composed of two contributions: offshore, large to very large events on the plate boundary between Africa and Eurasia such as the Lisbon earthquake of 1755 or the Gorringe Bank earthquake of 1969; and onshore, moderate to strong intraplate earthquakes on inherited crustal fractures. One of these zones of crustal weakness is the Lower Tagus Valley (LTV) fault zone, which displays the highest level of seismic hazard in Western Iberia. In this paper we review the active tectonics and seismicity of the LTV, integrating previous geophysical data with recent results of paleoseismological investigations, and discuss its impact on the seismic hazard of SW Iberia. We conclude that the seismic zonation for hazard assessment currently in force in the building code is biased towards the scenario of distant offshore rupture, and does not take adequately into account the LTV seismic source.     

Ground-Motion Scaling in the Western Alps

In order to empirically obtain the scaling relationships for the high-frequency ground motion in the Western Alps (NW Italy), regressions are carried out on more than 7500 seismograms from 957 regional earthquakes. The waveforms were selected from the database of 6 three-component stations of the RSNI (Regional Seismic network of Northwestern Italy). The events, M _W ranging between 1.2 and 4.8, were recorded within a hypocentral distance of 200 km during the time period: 1996–2001. The peak ground velocities are measured in selected narrow-frequency bands, between 0.5 and 14 Hz. Results are presented in terms of a regional attenuation function for the vertical ground motion, a set of vertical excitation terms at the reference station STV2 (hard-rock), and a set of site terms (vertical and horizontal), all relative to the vertical component of station STV2.The regional propagation of the ground motion is modeled after quantifying the expected duration of the seismic motion as a function of frequency and hypocentral distance. A simple functional form is used to take into account both the geometrical and the anelastic attenuation: a multi-variable grid search yielded a quality factor Q(f) = 310f ^0.20, together with a quadri-linear geometrical spreading at low frequency. A simpler, bi-linear geometrical spreading seems to be more appropriate at higher frequencies (f > 1.0 Hz). Excitation terms are matched by using a Brune spectral model with variable, magnitude-dependent stress drop: at M _w 4.8, we used Δσ = 50 MPa. A regional distance-independent attenuation parameter is obtained (κ₀ = 0.012 s) by modelling the average spectral decay at high frequency of small earthquakes.In order to predict the absolute levels of ground shaking in the region, the excitation/attenuation model is used through the Random Vibration Theory (RVT) with a stochastic point-source model. The expected peak-ground accelerations (PGA) are compared with the ones derived by Ambraseys et al. (1996) for the Mediterranean region and by Sabetta and Pugliese (1996) for the Italian territory.     

Inversion of ambient seismic noise HVSR to evaluate velocity and structural models of the Lower Tagus Basin,Portugal

During its history, several significant earthquakes have shaken the Lower Tagus Valley (Portugal). These earthquakes were destructive; some strong earthquakes were produced by large ruptures in offshore structures located southwest of the Portuguese coastline, and other moderate earthquakes were produced by local faults. In recent years, several studies have successfully obtained strong-ground motion syntheses for the Lower Tagus Valley using the finite difference method. To confirm the velocity model of this sedimentary basin obtained from geophysical and geological data, we analysed the ambient seismic noise measurements by applying the horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) method. This study reveals the dependence of the frequency and amplitude of the low-frequency (HVSR) peaks (0.2–2 Hz) on the sediment thickness. We have obtained the depth of the Cenozoic basement along a profile transversal to the basin by the inversion of these ratios, imposing constraints from seismic reflection, boreholes, seismic sounding and gravimetric and magnetic potentials. This technique enables us to improve the existing three-dimensional model of the Lower Tagus Valley structure. The improved model will be decisive for the improvement of strong motion predictions in the earthquake hazard analysis of this highly populated basin. The methodology discussed can be applied to any other sedimentary basin.     

The Azambuja fault: An active structure located in an intraplate basin with significant seismicity (Lower Tagus Valley, Portugal)

The Azambuja fault is a NNE trending structure located 50 km NE of Lisbon, in an area of important historical seismicity. It is sited in the Lower Tagus Basin, a compressive foredeep basin related to tectonic inversion of the Mesozoic Lusitanian Basin in the Miocene. The fault is evident in commercial seismic reflection data, where it shows steep thrust geometry downthrowing the Cenozoic sediments to the east. It has also a clear morphological signature, presenting a NNE-SSW trending, east facing, 15 km long scarp, reaching a maximum height of 80 m. The fault scarp is the geomorphic appearance of a flexure expressed as a zone of distributed deformation, where Miocene and Pliocene sediments are tilted eastwards and are cut by steeply dipping meso-scale faults presenting reverse and normal offsets, with a net downthrow to the east. This pattern at the surface is compatible with a steep fault in the basement that tilts and branches through the overlying Cenozoic sedimentary cover. In order to constrain the neotectonic activity of this structure, detailed geological studies were conducted. Morphotectonics was studied through aerial photo interpretation, analysis of topographic maps and digital mapping. Those studies indicate Quaternary slip on the fault in the ranges of 0.05–0.06 mm per year. Seismogenic behaviour was assumed for the Azambuja fault based on the evidence of Quaternary tectonic activity and its location in an area of significant historical seismicity. M _w 6.4–6.7 maximum earthquakes, with recurrence intervals of 10000–25000 years, were estimated based upon the displaced morphological references, cumulative offsets and fault length.     

Style-of-Faulting in Ground-Motion Prediction Equations

Equations for the prediction of response spectral ordinates invariably include magnitude, distance and site classification as independent variables. A few equations also include style-of-faulting as a fourth variable, although this has an almost negligible effect on the standard deviation of the equation. Nonetheless, style-of-faulting is a useful parameter to include in ground-motion prediction equations since the rupture mechanism of future earthquakes in a particular seismic source zone can usually be defined with some confidence. Current equations including style-of-faulting use different schemes to classify fault ruptures into various categories, which leads to uncertainty and ambiguity regarding the nature and extent of the effect of focal mechanism on ground motions. European equations for spectral ordinates do not currently include style-of-faulting factors, and seismic hazard assessments in Europe often combine, in logic-tree formulations, these equations with those from western North America that do include style-of-faulting coefficients. In this article, a simple scheme is provided to allow style-of-faulting adjustments to be made for those equations that do not include coefficients for rupture mechanism, so that style-of-faulting can be fully incorporated into the hazard calculations. This also considers the case of normal fault ruptures, not modelled in any of the current Californian equations, but which are the dominant mechanism in many parts of Europe. The scheme is validated by performing new regressions on a widely used European attenuation relationship with additional terms for style-of-faulting. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Analysis of seismic reflection data as a tool for the seismotectonic assessment of a low activity intraplate basin – the Lower Tagus Valley (Portugal)

The Lower TagusValley is located in the Lower TagusSedimentary Basin. Occurrence ofearthquakes in the area indicates thepresence of seismogenic structures at depththat are still deficiently known due to athick Cenozoic sedimentary cover. It isusually assumed that regional M = 6–7earthquakes are generated by the LowerTagus Valley fault. However, this structurehas never been characterised, and there isevidence for the presence of other faultsthat have the potential of generating largeseismic events. The hidden character ofmany of the structures in the Lower TagusBasin necessitates the use of indirectmethodologies for their study. Availableseismic reflection lines acquired for oilexploration in the Lower Tagus Valleyregion were thus examined, with emphasis onthe recognition of faults displacing theCenozoic and particularly the youngergeological units. The foreseen complexityof the basin structure was confirmed.Evidence for a continuous `Lower TagusValley fault' is absent. Instead, N-S toNNE-SSW trending, en echelon,sub-vertical and reverse faults showingsignificant post-Miocene offsets, linked bytransverse (NW-SE) faults that accommodatelarge displacements, were recognised in theseismic sections that cross the Tagusvalley. These faults range in length from10 km to a maximum of ca. 40 km, leading toan estimation of 6.2–6.9 maximum credibleearthquake magnitudes, which fall in themagnitude range of the regional historicalseismicity.     

地震动残差分析盆地附加放大效应:日本关东盆地为例

我国地震动预测及地震危险性分析通常仅考虑局部场地浅层岩土层对地震动的放大效应,不能考虑较大范围的地质条件影响,如沉积盆地厚沉积层对地震动的附加放大效应通常被忽略,造成盆地内地震动及地震危险性预测结果普遍被低估。本文以地震动观测记录数据充足的日本关东盆地为例,采用地震动残差分析方法评估盆地附加放大效应,分析覆盖层厚度、盆地内空间位置、震级、震源距对地震动放大效应的影响,建立关东盆地附加放大效应经验评估模型。分析表明:关东盆地附加放大效应与反应谱周期相关,整体上从短周期的1.0逐渐增大至周期为5s时的1.5,附加放大效应与覆盖层厚度相关性较小,主要受盆地空间位置和震源距的影响;盆地北部边缘及西北部地区附加放大效应更强烈,盆地南部附加放大效应较小,这可能与盆地边缘效应密切相关。本文建立的关东盆地附加放大效应经验模型略高于BSSA14和ASK14模型的放大效应预测。相关研究结果可用于我国地震动预测、下一代地震动区划图修订等。     

Spatial organization of macroinvertebrate assemblages in the Lower Mekong Basin

In this study, we investigated patterns of spatial variation in macroinvertebrate assemblages in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) and examined their relationship with environmental factors. Cluster analysis was used to group macroinvertebrate samples and Linear Discriminant Analysis was performed to discriminate the major factors associated with the macroinvertebrate assemblages. Four clusters could be distinguished based on the dissimilarity between macroinvertebrate assemblages. The assemblages related to the tributaries and the upstream parts (cluster II) were characterized by a lower richness, abundance, diversity and a lower number of indicator taxa compared to the assemblage found downstream in the Mekong delta (cluster I). Aquatic insects and their indicator taxa (e.g. Caenodes sp., Dipseudopsis sp. and Gomphidae sp.), preferring a high-altitude environment with a high dissolved oxygen concentration and a high density of wood/shrub and evergreen forests, were the most predominant group in the assemblages occupying the tributaries and the upstream parts (cluster IIa). The assemblage found in the delta, consisting largely of molluscs and a moderate richness and abundance of worms, crustaceans and dipteran insects, was mainly represented by Corbicula leviuscula and C. moreletiana (molluscs), Namalycastis longicirris and Chaetogaster langi (worms), Corophium minutum and Grandidierella lignorum (crustaceans), and Cricotopus sp. and Clinotanypus sp. (dipteran insects). This assemblage was associated with a large watershed surface area, deep and wide rivers and a high water temperature. The intermediate assemblage (cluster IIb1) in-between could be discriminated based on land cover types including inundated, wetland and agricultural land, and was represented most by molluscs. Strikingly, the assemblage occupying the upstream parts (cluster IIa), which is related to intensified agriculture and a moderate conductivity, was characterized by a higher macroinvertebrate diversity compared to the mountainous and less impacted tributaries. This could mean that the natural stress is high in these systems for some taxa, leading to a lower overall taxonomic richness and abundance. Nevertheless, the number of taxa and the diversity of macroinvertebrates remained relatively high across the basin, especially in the delta assemblage. Therefore, the LMB deserves a particular attention for conservation.     

Designing river water quality policy interventions with scarce data: the case of the Middle Tagus Basin,Spain

ABSTRACT

Anthropic pressures deteriorate river water quality, so authorities need to identify their causes and define corrective actions. Physically based water quality models are a useful tool for addressing physicochemical pollutants, but they must be calibrated with an amount of data that is often unavailable. In this study, we explore the characterization of a model to design corrective interventions in a context of sparse data. A calibration indicator that is both simple and flexible is proposed. This approach is applied to the Middle Tagus Basin in central Spain, where the physicochemical concentration of pollutants is above legal standards. We quantify the effects of the main existing pressures (discharge from wastewater treatment plants, agricultural diffuse pollution and a major inter-basin water transfer) on the receiving waters. In particular, the study finds that wastewater treatment plant effluent concentrations should be reduced to up to 0.65 mg/L of ammonium and 0.55 mg/L of phosphate to achieve the environmental goals. We propose and prioritize a set of policy actions that would contribute to the good status of surface water bodies in the region.     

The Influence of Ground-Motion Variability in Earthquake Loss Modelling

Earthquake loss models are subject to many large uncertainties associated with the input parameters that define the seismicity, the ground motion, the exposure and the vulnerability characteristics of the building stock. In order to obtain useful results from a loss model, it is necessary to correctly identify and characterise these uncertainties, incorporate them into the calculations, and then interpret the results taking account of the influence of the uncertainties. An important element of the uncertainty will always be the aleatory variability in the ground-motion prediction. Options for handling this variability include following the traditional approach used in site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard assessment or embedding the variability within the vulnerability calculations at each location. The physical interpretation of both of these approaches, when applied to many sites throughout an urban area to assess the overall effects of single or multiple earthquake events, casts doubts on their validity. The only approach that is consistent with the real nature of ground-motion variability is to model the shaking component of the loss model by triggering large numbers of earthquake scenarios that sample the magnitude and spatial distributions of the seismicity, and also the distribution of ground motions for each event as defined by the aleatory variability.     

下刚果盆地构造特征及油气勘探潜力

下刚果盆地位于西非海岸,为一中生代裂谷与被动大陆边缘叠合盆地.盆地被阿普特期盐岩分为盐上及盐下构造层,上下两层构造特征差异明显.盐下以早期裂陷晚期坳陷为特征,盐上地层受盐岩运动和构造背景的双重影响,由东到西分为拉张带、过渡带及挤压带.盆地目前已证实的重要的成藏组合有三套,即盐下裂谷成藏组合、盐下-盐上成藏组合与第三系成藏组合.综合分析认为水深大于2000m深水区是盐上浊积砂体潜力最大的地区,浅水地区为盐上碳酸盐岩潜力区,而大西洋枢纽带两侧为盐下勘探潜力区.     

Evaluating Earthquake-Triggered Landslide Hazard at the Basin Scale Through Gis in the Upper Sele River Valley

To evaluate techniques for assessing earthquake-triggeredlandslide hazard in the Southern Apennines (Italy), a GIS-based analysis was used to modelseismically induced slope deformations. Geological, geotechnical, geomorphological and seismologicaldata were integrated into a standard earthquake slope stability model. The model assessed thelandslide potential that existed during the 1980 Irpinian earthquake in the Upper Sele river Valley.The standard Newmark displacement analysis, widely used for predicting the location of shallowunstable slopes, does not take into account errors and/or uncertainties in the input parameters.Therefore, a probabilistic Newmark displacement analysis technique has been used. Probabilistictechniques allow, e.g., an estimation of the probability that a slope will exceed a certain criticalvalue of Newmark displacement. In our probabilistic method, a Monte-Carlo based simulation modelis used in conjunction with a GIS. The random variability of geotechnical data is modelled by probabilitydensity functions (pdfs), while for the seismic input three different regression laws wereconsidered. Input probability distributions are sampled and the resulting values input into empiricalrelations for estimating Newmark displacement. The outcome is a map in which to each siteis related a spatial probability distribution for the expected displacement in response to seismic loading.Results of the experiments show a high grade of uncertainty in the application of the Newmarkanalysis both for the deterministic and probabilistic approach in a complex geological setting suchas the high Sele valley, quite common in the Southern Apennines. They show a strong dependence onthe reliability of the spatial data used in input, so that, when the model is used at basin scale,results are strongly influenced by local environmental condition (e.g., topography, lithology, groundwatercondition) and decrease the model performance.     

Petroleum geological dynamics of Lower Paleozoic in the Ordos Basin, northwest China

Taking the hydrocarbon source rocks of Ordovician, Lower Paleozoic in the Ordos Basin as the main research object, the characteristics of petroleum geological dynamics about geohistory, geothermal history, hydrocarbon generation history and hydrocarbon expulsion history were studied by using the methods of basin numerical modeling dynamically and pool-forming dynamics. It is shown that the Ordovician strata had entirely undergone five stages of initial deposition, uplift and erosion, rapid subsidence, alternating uplift and subsidence, and differential uplift and erosion; that under the background of lower heat flow on the whole, the paleoheat flow of Ordovician strata in the basin could be divided into two large stages of relatively high heat flow values period before Cretaceous deposition and relatively low ones after it; that the thermal evolution of organic matters in the hydrocarbon source rocks of Ordovician had entered into high mature-postmature stage on the whole and the intensity of gas generated was greater than that of oil generated, the hydrocarbon being mainly natural gas; and that the curves of the intensity of oil and gas expulsion at each time unit showed the feature of multi-peak-type, the accumulative intensity of gas expulsion was greater than that of oil expulsion. Thus natural gas exploration potential is good.     

Multi-method groundwater recharge estimation at Eshito micro-watershed,Rift Valley Basin in Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

Understanding recharge processes is fundamental to improve sustainable groundwater resource management. Shallow groundwater (SGW) is being developed for multiple purposes in Ethiopia without consideration of monitoring. We established a citizen science-based hydro-meteorological monitoring network, with a focus on SGW recharge estimation, in Eshito micro-watershed, Ethiopia. Citizen scientists collected rainfall, groundwater-level and stream water-level data. We characterized the shallow aquifer using pumping tests. The data were used to estimate SGW recharge using three methods: chloride mass balance, water-level fluctuation (WLF) and baseflow separation. Approximately 20% and 35% of annual rainfall amount contributes to recharge based on the chloride mass balance and WLF results, respectively. Baseflow separation showed recharge values for the watershed vary from 38% to 28% of annual rainfall at the upstream and downstream gauging stations, respectively. This study shows that the recharge in previously unmonitored micro-watersheds can be studied if citizens are involved in data generation.     

Studying seasonal dynamics of surface water pollution in Lower Volga Basin

The results of environmental monitoring of surface-water quality in the Lower Volga Basin are given. The results of regular observations are differentiated. Water pollution is assessed based on the criterion of seasonal occurrence of chemicals in water at gage sections classified by zonal principle. An integrated estimate demonstrates considerable variations within a year and an increase in the normal annual concentrations of some pollutants of both natural and anthropogenic origin.     

Magnetic properties of the Lower Old Red Sandstone lavas in the Midland Valley,Scotland; palaeomagnetic and tectonic considerations

Thermal demagnetization studies of lavas in the Strathmore area of the Midland Valley, Scotland, support overall palaeomagnetic data found in previous studies of these rocks. Reduced directional scatter as compared to some earlier studies, is attributed to more effective demagnetization, resolving some of the directional complexity of previous studies. Combined magnetic fabric and directional analysis suggest that at least some deviating directions may be explained by local tectonism. The existence of almost antiparallel directional groups and field tests give supporting evidence for a “primary” (deuteric) origin of the main magnetization of these rocks. Additionally, a second remanence component having shallow reverse directions of magnetization, is attributed to later remagnetization in Old Red Sandstone time. The Midland Valley results are seen in conjunction with other Palaeozoic palaeomagnetic results and possible geodynamic implications are discussed.     

Assessment of future stream flow over the Sesan catchment of the Lower Mekong Basin in Vietnam

This study used a regional climate model, driven at a resolution of 30 km, to derive climate estimates that were used as input to a hydrological model to determine stream flow in a changing climate. This regional climate model output was derived using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, which was used to downscale the general circulation model ECHAM5 T63 under the A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario for the future. Two river basins, Dakbla and Poko, over the Sesan catchment of the Lower Mekong region were considered for runoff modeling. A 10‐year climatology of the recent past, 1991–2000, was used as the baseline for the present‐day climate, and another 10‐year climate over the period 2091–2100 was chosen for the future time slice. The results from the simulation of future stream flow indicate that, over both Dakbla and Poko river basins, the stream flow is likely to increase, especially during the peak rainfall season. The Dakbla River Basin shows a substantial increase in stream flow when compared with the Poko River Basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sedimentary record of anthropogenic metal inputs in the Tagus prodelta (Portugal)

Favourable oceanographic and environmental conditions allow the formation of a fine-grained deposit (Tagus prodelta) located at the mouth of the Tagus River. This fine-grained deposit results from the sink and accumulation of terrestrial and marine-derived materials. Three short sediment cores collected in the Tagus prodelta were investigated through the variability in grain-size, major and trace elements, C_org, N_tot, δ¹³C and ²¹⁰Pb dating to characterise the historical development of trace metal contamination. Historical trends indicated significant anthropogenic enrichments for Hg, Pb, Zn, Cu, Sb and Sn since the 1930s. Hg presents the highest level of anthropogenic enrichment (ca. EF_Hg=20) in cores 3576 (PO287-26-1B) and 3579 (PO287-27-1B) collected closer to the shore. Despite these elements were derived from distinct industrial sources, all of them presented similar temporal trends, which points to the importance of estuarine mixing processes originated by the tidal regime and wind before transfer to the adjoining coastal areas. The cores were characterised by smoothness of down-core variations and river flood events occurred in the last decades were not registered. Furthermore, the improvement of effluents treatment together with the closing of some industrial point sources in the last two decades is not evidenced in recent sediment composition of the Tagus prodelta. Besides sediment reworking in the upper sediment layers, sediment mixing inside the estuary may explain minor abrupt alterations with the depth.