Sensitivity of a seismically active reservoir to low-amplitude fluctuations: Observations from Lake Jocassee,South Carolina

Relation between water level changes and pattern of seismicity is an important consideration in studies of Reservoir Induced Seismicity (RIS). Sensitivity of the Regions around Lake Jocassee to small fluctuations in the lake level is presented in this paper. The seismic source regions in the area around the lake seem to be sensitive to changes in the lake level as small as 1 to 1.5 m. Although such changes may produce stress changes of the order of only 0.1 bar, their influence on the spatial pattern of earthquakes seems to be quite perceptible. Observations of this type may help understand the threshold values of pore pressure/effective stress changes that can activate fault zones under high fluid pressure.     

Gravity Changes and Internal Processes: Some Results Obtained from Observations at Three Volcanoes

Temporal gravity changes provide information about mass and/or density variations within and below the volcano edifice. Three active volcanoes have been under investigation; each of them related to a plate boundary: Mayon/Luzon/Philippines, Merapi/Java/Indonesia, and Galeras/Colombia. The observed gravity changes are smaller than previously expected but significant. For the three volcanoes under investigation, and within the observation period, mainly the increase of gravity is observed, ranging from 1,000 nm^–2 to 1,600 nms^–2. Unexpectedly, the gravity increase is confined to a rather small area with radii of 5 to 8 km around the summit. At Mayon and Merapi the parallel GPS measurements yield no significant elevation changes. This is crucial for the interpretation, as the internal pressure variations do not lead to significant deformation at the surface. Thus the classical Mogi-model for a shallow extending magma reservoir cannot apply. To confine the possible models, the attraction due to changes of groundwater level or soil moisture is estimated along the slope of Merapi exemplarily by 2-D modelling. Mass redistribution or density changes were evaluated within the vent as well as deeper fluid processes to explain the gravity variations; the results are compared to the model incorporating the additional effect of elastic deformation.     

Tilt Angle of the Magnetic-Field Axis of Sunspots from Microwave Observations: Method and Measurement Results

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The results of the measurements of the tilt of the magnetic-field axis of sunspots for active regions (ARs) with different morphological structures are presented. The...     

Adaptive Blending of Model and Observations for Automated Short-Range Forecasting: Examples from the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games

An automated short-range forecasting system, adaptive blending of observations and model (ABOM), was tested in real time during the 2010 Vancouver Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games in British Columbia. Data at 1-min time resolution were available from a newly established, dense network of surface observation stations. Climatological data were not available at these new stations. This, combined with output from new high-resolution numerical models, provided a unique and exciting setting to test nowcasting systems in mountainous terrain during winter weather conditions. The ABOM method blends extrapolations in time of recent local observations with numerical weather predictions (NWP) model predictions to generate short-range point forecasts of surface variables out to 6 h. The relative weights of the model forecast and the observation extrapolation are based on performance over recent history. The average performance of ABOM nowcasts during February and March 2010 was evaluated using standard scores and thresholds important for Olympic events. Significant improvements over the model forecasts alone were obtained for continuous variables such as temperature, relative humidity and wind speed. The small improvements to forecasts of variables such as visibility and ceiling, subject to discontinuous changes, are attributed to the persistence component of ABOM.     

Sea Surface Salinity Observations from Space with the SMOS Satellite: A New Means to Monitor the Marine Branch of the Water Cycle

While it is well known that the ocean is one of the most important component of the climate system, with a heat capacity 1,100 times greater than the atmosphere, the ocean is also the primary reservoir for freshwater transport to the atmosphere and largest component of the global water cycle. Two new satellite sensors, the ESA Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and the NASA Aquarius SAC-D missions, are now providing the first space-borne measurements of the sea surface salinity (SSS). In this paper, we present examples demonstrating how SMOS-derived SSS data are being used to better characterize key land–ocean and atmosphere–ocean interaction processes that occur within the marine hydrological cycle. In particular, SMOS with its ocean mapping capability provides observations across the world’s largest tropical ocean fresh pool regions, and we discuss from intraseasonal to interannual precipitation impacts as well as large-scale river runoff from the Amazon–Orinoco and Congo rivers and its offshore advection. Synergistic multi-satellite analyses of these new surface salinity data sets combined with sea surface temperature, dynamical height and currents from altimetry, surface wind, ocean color, rainfall estimates, and in situ observations are shown to yield new freshwater budget insight. Finally, SSS observations from the SMOS and Aquarius/SAC-D sensors are combined to examine the response of the upper ocean to tropical cyclone passage including the potential role that a freshwater-induced upper ocean barrier layer may play in modulating surface cooling and enthalpy flux in tropical cyclone track regions.     

Evaluating an Analytical Model to Predict Subsurface LNAPL Distributions and Transmissivity from Current and Historic Fluid Levels in Groundwater Wells: Comparing Results to Numerical Simulations

A recent analytical model predicts free, entrapped, and residual LNAPL saturations and the LNAPL transmissivity in the subsurface from current and historic fluid levels in groundwater wells. As such, the model accounts for effects of fluid level fluctuations in a well. The model was developed to predict LNAPL specific volumes and transmissivities from current fluid level measurements in wells and either recorded historic fluid level fluctuations in wells or estimates. An assumption is made in the model that the predictions are not dependent on whether the historic highest or lowest fluid level elevations in a well occur first. To test the assumption, we conduct two simulations with a modified multiphase flow numerical code TMVOC that incorporates relative permeability‐saturation‐capillary head relations employed in the model. In one simulation, the initial condition is for fluid levels in a well at the historic highest elevations. In the other simulation, the initial condition is for fluid levels in a well at the historic lowest elevations. We change the boundary conditions so both historical conditions occur followed by generating the current condition. Results from the numerical simulations are compared to model predictions and show the assumption in the analytical model is reasonable. The analytical model can be used to develop/refine conceptual site models and for assessing potential LNAPL recovery endpoints, especially on sites with fluctuating fluid levels in wells.     

Numerical Simulation of Andhra Severe Cyclone (2003): Model Sensitivity to the Boundary Layer and Convection Parameterization

The Andhra severe cyclonic storm (2003) is simulated to study its evolution, structure, intensity and movement using the Penn State/NCAR non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model MM5. The model is used with three interactive nested domains at 81, 27 and 9 km resolutions covering the Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian Peninsula. The performance of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and convective parameterization on the simulated features of the cyclone is studied by conducting sensitivity experiments. Results indicate that while the boundary layer processes play a significant role in determining both the intensity and movement, the convective processes especially control the movement of the model storm. The Mellor-Yamada scheme is found to yield the most intensive cyclone. While the combination of Mellor-Yamada (MY) PBL and Kain-Fritsch 2 (KF2) convection schemes gives the most intensive storm, the MRF PBL with KF2 convection scheme produces the best simulation in terms of intensity and track. Results of the simulation with the combination of MRF scheme for PBL and KF2 for convection show the evolution and major features of a mature tropical storm. The model has very nearly simulated the intensity of the storm though slightly overpredicted. Simulated core vertical temperature structure, winds at different heights, vertical winds in and around the core, vorticity and divergence fields at the lower and upper levels—all support the characteristics of a mature storm. The model storm has moved towards the west of the observed track during the development phase although the location of the storm in the initial and final phases agreed with the observations. The simulated rainfall distribution associated with the storm agreed reasonably with observations.     

GT0 Explosion Sources for IMS Infrasound Calibration: Charge Design and Yield Estimation from Near-source Observations

Three large-scale on-surface explosions were conducted by the Geophysical Institute of Israel (GII) at the Sayarim Military Range, Negev desert, Israel: about 82 tons of strong high explosives in August 2009, and two explosions of about 10 and 100 tons of ANFO explosives in January 2011. It was a collaborative effort between Israel, CTBTO, USA and several European countries, with the main goal to provide fully controlled ground truth (GT0) infrasound sources, monitored by extensive observations, for calibration of International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound stations in Europe, Middle East and Asia. In all shots, the explosives were assembled like a pyramid/hemisphere on dry desert alluvium, with a complicated explosion design, different from the ideal homogenous hemisphere used in similar experiments in the past. Strong boosters and an upward charge detonation scheme were applied to provide more energy radiated to the atmosphere. Under these conditions the evaluation of the actual explosion yield, an important source parameter, is crucial for the GT0 calibration experiment. Audio-visual, air-shock and acoustic records were utilized for interpretation of observed unique blast effects, and for determination of blast wave parameters suited for yield estimation and the associated relationships. High-pressure gauges were deployed at 100–600 m to record air-blast properties, evaluate the efficiency of the charge design and energy generation, and provide a reliable estimation of the charge yield. The yield estimators, based on empirical scaled relations for well-known basic air-blast parameters—the peak pressure, impulse and positive phase duration, as well as on the crater dimensions and seismic magnitudes, were analyzed. A novel empirical scaled relationship for the little-known secondary shock delay was developed, consistent for broad ranges of ANFO charges and distances, which facilitates using this stable and reliable air-blast parameter as a new potential yield estimator. The delay data of the 2009 shot with IMI explosives, characterized by much higher detonation velocity, are clearly separated from ANFO data, thus indicating a dependence on explosive type. This unique dual Sayarim explosion experiment (August 2009/January 2011), with the strongest GT0 sources since the establishment of the IMS network, clearly demonstrated the most favorable westward/eastward infrasound propagation up to 3,400/6,250 km according to appropriate summer/winter weather pattern and stratospheric wind directions, respectively, and thus verified empirically common models of infrasound propagation in the atmosphere.     

Responses of benthic foraminifera to changes of temperature and salinity: Results from a laboratory culture experiment

The effects of temperature and salinity on intertidal foraminiferal community under laboratory conditions are poorly understood. We designed a two-factor crossed experiment in which foraminiferal communities were cultured at different temperatures (6, 12, and 18℃) and salinities (15, 20, 25, and 30 psu) for 10 weeks. In total, 2616 living (stained) specimens were obtained and analyzed. Foraminiferal abundance ranged from 9 to 202 individuals/10 g wet weight of sediment. The highest abundance was obtained at 12℃, 25 psu and the lowest at 6℃, 15 psu. Statistical results demonstrated that temperature affected foraminiferal community more significantly than salinity. Most foraminiferal community parameters (abundance, species richness, Margalef index, and Shannon-Wiener diversity) were significantly positively correlated to temperature, but not to salinity, whereas Pielou's evenness was significantly negatively correlated to both temperature and salinity. The interactive effect of temperature and salinity on foraminiferal abundance was significant. In addition, with increasing temperature, the species composition shifted from hyaline Rotaliida to porcellaneous Miliolida. The abundance of dominant species (e.g., Ammonia aomoriensis, A. beccarii, and Quinqueloculina seminula) showed significant positive correlations to temperature. Our study indicated that the intertidal foraminiferal community responds sensitively and rapidly to the changes of salinity and, especially,temperature by shifting foraminiferal species composition and altering the community parameters.     

Results from combining tectonic observations and SAR interferometry for the 1995 Grevena earthquake: A summary

Soon after the 1995 Grevena M_s = 6.6 event, we mapped the Palaeochori earthquake fault break. These tectonic observations are combined with the surface displacement field determined with the SAR interferometry to model the fault dislocation at depth.     

Space- and Time-Dependent Probabilities for Earthquake Fault Systems from Numerical Simulations: Feasibility Study and First Results

In weather forecasting, current and past observational data are routinely assimilated into numerical simulations to produce ensemble forecasts of future events in a process termed “model steering”. Here we describe a similar approach that is motivated by analyses of previous forecasts of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). Our approach is adapted to the problem of earthquake forecasting using topologically realistic numerical simulations for the strike-slip fault system in California. By systematically comparing simulation data to observed paleoseismic data, a series of spatial probability density functions (PDFs) can be computed that describe the probable locations of future large earthquakes. We develop this approach and show examples of PDFs associated with magnitude M > 6.5 and M > 7.0 earthquakes in California.     

Station corrections for the Kaapvaal seismic network: Statistical properties and relation to lithospheric structure

Station corrections for body wave travel times are required to compensate for lateral variations in the crust and uppermost mantle in the analysis of seismic travel times that are used to determine deep Earth structure by various methods, including tomography. Station corrections to be applied to P wave arrival times from teleseismic earthquakes recorded by the Kaapvaal seismic network were estimated by five different methods: (1) averaging, (2) computing the median, and (3) weighted averaging of residuals; (4) least-squares regression, and (5) weighted least-squares regression. The corrections display variations that are related to the tectonic features of southern Africa inferred from surface geology, clearly delineating the southern and central areas of both the Kaapvaal and Zimbabwe cratons as regions of early arrivals, and the area around the Bushveld complex by later arrivals. Use of a simple ray method for generating synthetic station corrections suggests that lateral variations in the top 230 km of the Earth can explain the observed pattern of variations in station corrections. A satisfactory way of compensating for the biasing effects of outliers in the individual estimates of station corrections is through adaptation of a method originally developed by Jeffreys, which involves ascribing weights to the observations that reduce the standard deviation on a single estimate of a station correction from 0.123 to 0.096 s. Methods (2), (3) and (5) avoid serious bias by outliers, although methods (3) and (5) are preferred, because they also provide information on the causes of outliers. The presence of some outliers cannot be explained by errors in the measurement process, but must be caused by timing errors at the stations during recording, and/or errors introduced during the process of constructing the archived data files from the field data.     

Accelerated Electron Propagation Model for the Flare Arcade of the September 23, 2014, Event from RHESSI,SDO, and Nobeyama Radioheliograph Observations

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - A multi-wavelength study and simulation is conducted for the solar flare SOL2014-09-23T23:11. GOES-class M2.5. Radio (Nobeyama Radioheliograph) and X-ray (Reuven Ramaty...     

Toward a High-Resolution Monitoring of Continental Surface Water Extent and Dynamics,at Global Scale: from GIEMS (Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites) to SWOT (Surface Water Ocean Topography)

Up to now, high-resolution mapping of surface water extent from satellites has only been available for a few regions, over limited time periods. The extension of the temporal and spatial coverage was difficult, due to the limitation of the remote sensing technique [e.g., the interaction of the radiation with vegetation or cloud for visible observations or the temporal sampling with the synthetic aperture radar (SAR)]. The advantages and the limitations of the various satellite techniques are reviewed. The need to have a global and consistent estimate of the water surfaces over long time periods triggered the development of a multi-satellite methodology to obtain consistent surface water all over the globe, regardless of the environments. The Global Inundation Extent from Multi-satellites (GIEMS) combines the complementary strengths of satellite observations from the visible to the microwave, to produce a low-resolution monthly dataset (\(0.25^\circ \,\times \,0.25^\circ\)) of surface water extent and dynamics. Downscaling algorithms are now developed and applied to GIEMS, using high-spatial-resolution information from visible, near-infrared, and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images, or from digital elevation models. Preliminary products are available down to 500-m spatial resolution. This work bridges the gaps and prepares for the future NASA/CNES Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission to be launched in 2020. SWOT will delineate surface water extent estimates and their water storage with an unprecedented spatial resolution and accuracy, thanks to a SAR in an interferometry mode. When available, the SWOT data will be adopted to downscale GIEMS, to produce a long time series of water surfaces at global scale, consistent with the SWOT observations.     

DNAPL accumulation in wells and DNAPL recovery from wells: Model development and application to a laboratory study

Dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) accumulation and recovery from wells cannot be accurately modeled through typical pressure or flux boundary conditions due to gravity segregation of water and DNAPL in the wellbore, the effects of wellbore storage, and variations of wellbore inflow and outflow rates with depth, particularly in heterogeneous formations. A discrete wellbore formulation is presented for numerical modeling of DNAPL accumulation in observation wells and DNAPL removal from recovery wells. The formulation includes fluid segregation, changing water and DNAPL levels in the well and the corresponding changes in fluid storage in the wellbore. The method was added to a three-dimensional finite difference model (CompSim) for three phase (water, gas, DNAPL) flow. The model predictions are compared to three-dimensional pilot scale experiments of DNAPL (benzyl alcohol) infiltration, redistribution, recovery, and water flushing. Model predictions match experimental results well, indicating the appropriateness of the model formulation. Characterization of mixing in the extraction well is important for predicting removal of highly soluble organic compounds like benzyl alcohol. A sensitivity analysis shows that the incorporation of hysteresis is critical for accurate prediction. Among the multiphase flow and transport parameters required for modeling, results are most sensitive to soil intrinsic permeability.     

Ground deformation of Nisyros Volcano (Greece) for the period 1995–2002: Results from DInSAR and DGPS observations

Differential GPS (DGPS) and Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) analyses were applied to the Kos-Yali-Nisyros Volcanic Field (SE Hellenic Volcanic Arc) to quantify the ground deformation of Nisyros Volcano. After intense seismic activity in 1996, a GPS network was installed in June 1997 and re-occupied annually up to 2002. A general uplift ranging from 14 to 140 mm was determined at all stations of the network. The corresponding horizontal displacements ranged from 13 to 53 mm. The displacement vectors indicate that the island is undergoing extension towards the East, West and South. A two-source “Mogi” model combined with assumed motion along the Mandraki Fault was constructed to fit the observed deformation. The best-fit model assumes sources at a depth of 5500 m NW of the centre of the island and at 6500 m offshore ESE of Yali Island. DInSAR analysis using four pairs of images taken between May 1995 and September 2000 suggests that deformation was occurring during 1995 before the start of the seismic crisis. An amplitude of at least 56 mm along the slant range appeared for the period 1996 through 1999. This deformation is consistent with the two-source model invoked in DGPS modelling. Surface evidence of ground deformation is expressed in the contemporaneous reactivation of the Mandraki Fault. In addition, a 600 m long N-S trending irregular rupture in the caldera floor was formed between 2001 and 2002. This rupture is interpreted as the release of surface stress in the consolidated epiclastic and hydrothermal sediments of the caldera floor.