我国气候变化将比模式预期的小吗？谁驱动了亚洲季风的演化：一个瞬变模拟试验的启示

亚洲季风演化受到地球轨道参数强迫,尤其是岁差所引起日射变化的显著影响,但关于其驱动机制的争议仍然存在,且集中在“零相位”和“南半球潜热”两种假说上。两个假说都得到了部分地质证据的支持,因此亟需相应的数值模拟,尤其是长期瞬变试验的检验。长期瞬变模拟试验可以对气候的连续演变进行模拟,并能与地质证据进行对比,有助于深入认识亚洲季风系统演化的内在物理机制。但由于计算能力的匮乏,过去的古季风数值模拟多为“时间片”模拟,这使得季风变迁机理研究受到限制。文章通过一个海－气耦合模式的长期瞬变试验,讨论了轨道日射的变化特征,证明过去280ka亚洲夏季风降水对日射有十分显著的响应,且与北半球初夏日射变化相位接近,部分支持了“零相位”假说。同时,模拟结果还揭示了随意选取日射参考标尺会导致缺乏内在物理机制的位相关系,合理选择日射参考以及明确地质记录的气候学意义在古季风强迫－响应机制研究中十分重要。     

The impact of varying ice sheets and greenhouse gases on the intensity and timing of boreal summer monsoons

Climate models, forced only with insolation, indicate that boreal summer monsoons respond to orbital forcing with a zero phase both at the precession and obliquity bands. Discrepancies exist among data with respect to the timing of the response. Some late Pleistocene monsoon records show small lags of 2–3 kyr, close to model results, while many others show considerably longer lags of 5–8 kyr. It has been hypothesized that such lags arise from factors that were, up till now, not included in the modelling experiments, namely variations in glacial-age boundary conditions.Here we address this issue using long, time-dependent climate simulations that do include varying ice sheets and greenhouse gas concentrations. Inclusion of these additional forcings introduces a small peak in the monsoon spectra at the 100 kyr period, while monsoon variance remains dominated by precession with a smaller contribution from obliquity. At the precession band orbital forcing remains the dominant control, with lags close to zero. At the obliquity band varying ice sheet and greenhouse gases explain most of the simulated African and Indian monsoon variance, with orbital forcing playing a minor role. For the East Asian monsoon orbital forcing remains dominant. As a result the simulated obliquity phase of different monsoon systems lies between summer insolation maxima and ice minima/greenhouse gas maxima, with a lag that varies with distance to the Eurasian ice sheet.     

黄土高原35万年来冬、夏季风变化周期的差异——陆生蜗牛化石的证据

针对我国北方风积黄土广泛分布、不同地点黄土-古土壤序列可准确对比和黄土沉积剩磁稳定等特征,通过对不同地壳块体上相同层位的黄土样品沉积剩磁方向的测定,进一步探讨了应用"虚磁极法"研究鄂尔多斯块体与相邻块体的相对运动的可能性.初步的研究结果显示:该方法有可能应用于块体相对运动的定量研究,并初步得到,在第四纪时期鄂尔多斯块体相对于邻近块体作逆时针转动,自2.5Ma B.P.以来相对秦岭块体的转动约为31.5°±11.4°,自1.17Ma B.P.以来相对西宁块体的转动约为29.8°±14.7°,自0.46Ma B.P.以来相对太行山块体的转动约为8.2°±5.8°,相对于西宁块体的转动约为10.5°±6.4°.本文还根据这些块体间相对转动的角度初步估算了鄂尔多斯块体与相邻块体之间的活动断裂带不同时期的水平位移总量.     

Late Quaternary Upwelling Intensity and East Asian Monsoon Forcing in the South China Sea

Foraminifera from two cores off eastern Vietnam and the northwestern Philippines, where modern summer and winter monsoon-driven upwelling occurs in the South China Sea, respectively, were analyzed to evaluate the changes in paleoproductivity and upper water structure over the last 220,000 yr. We observed enhanced organic carbon flux and a shoaled thermocline when upwelling intensified off eastern Vietnam during interglacial ages and off the northwestern Philippines during glacial ages. This indicates that the East Asian summer monsoon increased while the winter monsoon decreased during interglacial ages. Particularly, the upwelling reached a maximum off eastern Vietnam during late marine isotopic stage (MIS) 5 and off the northwestern Philippines during MIS 2, implying that the summer monsoon decreased gradually since MIS 5 while the winter monsoon displayed an opposite trend. The variations in upwelling proxies exhibit a distinct cyclicity with frequencies near 41,000 yr and 23,000 yr off eastern Vietnam, in contrast to a strong frequency peak near 100,000 yr off the northwestern Philippines. We suggest that the East Asian summer monsoon has been forced by changes in solar insolation associated with precession and obliquity, while ice-volume forcing is probably a primary factor in determining the strength and timing of the East Asian winter monsoon but with less important insolation forcing.     

Obliquity and precessional forcing of continental snow fall and melt: implications for orbital forcing of Pleistocene ice ages

Milankovitch theory posits that Earth's orbital cycles were the primary forcing of Pleistocene ice-age cycles through their strong influence on summer insolation at high latitudes. Accordingly, Milankovitch theory predicts ice volume should vary at both obliquity and precessional periods. However, early Pleistocene global ice volume varied mainly at the obliquity period with weak variability at the precessional period suggesting that Milankovitch theory is not sufficient to explain the ice-age cycles. Here we describe the results from a series of coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model experiments, using the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model, that systematically investigate the influence of precession and obliquity on continental snowfall and potential ablation.Our model results identify three factors that magnify the influence of obliquity forcing on the global ice volume: First, high-latitude snowfall variability is dominated by changes in Earth's axial tilt. Second, hemispheric changes in net snowfall due to Earth's precession are out-of-phase, and largely cancel to produce a very small global snowfall change. Third, snowmelt variability over Antarctica responds greatly to changes in obliquity that intensify accumulation over obliquity cycle. We discuss the implications of these factors for existing hypotheses that account for the variability in the ice volume record.     

Orbital changes and climate

At the 41,000-period of orbital tilt, summer insolation forces a lagged response in northern ice sheets. This delayed ice signal is rapidly transferred to nearby northern oceans and landmasses by atmospheric dynamics. These ice-driven responses lead to late-phased changes in atmospheric CO₂ that provide positive feedback to the ice sheets and also project ‘late’ 41-K forcing across the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Responses in austral regions are also influenced by a fast response to summer insolation forcing at high southern latitudes.At the 22,000-year precession period, northern summer insolation again forces a lagged ice-sheet response, but with muted transfers to proximal regions and no subsequent effect on atmospheric CO₂. Most 22,000-year greenhouse-gas responses have the ‘early’ phase of July insolation. July forcing of monsoonal and boreal wetlands explains the early CH₄ response. The slightly later 22-K CO₂ response originates in the southern hemisphere. The early 22-K CH₄ and CO₂ responses add to insolation forcing of the ice sheets.The dominant 100,000-year response of ice sheets is not externally forced, nor does it result from internal resonance. Internal forcing appears to play at most a minor role. The origin of this signal lies mainly in internal feedbacks (CO₂ and ice albedo) that drive the gradual build-up of large ice sheets and then their rapid destruction. Ice melting during terminations is initiated by uniquely coincident forcing from insolation and greenhouse gases at the periods of tilt and precession.     

早上新世非洲季风与地中海表层生产力变化的岁差节律

地质历史上留下了许多反映非洲季风的记录, 意大利南方晚新生代的海相地层便是其中著名的一例.Cape Sper-tivento剖面位于意大利卡拉布里亚半岛, 属于早上新世(5.3~4.8Ma) 地中海泥灰岩-灰岩沉积物.在借鉴前人工作的基础上, 重新为该剖面建立一个精度更高的天文年代标尺.反映古生产力的指标显示, 早上新世在北半球夏季辐射量增大期间, 地中海有机碳含量及其堆积速率增大, C/N出现高值, 碳酸盐含量及其堆积速率减小, G. obliquus稳定氧碳同位素出现负偏移, 这是非洲夏季风带来的降雨增强的结果.尼罗河泛滥让更多陆源营养物和淡水输入地中海.各个古环境指标的频谱分析结果存在强烈的岁差周期和丰富的半岁差周期, 说明早上新世非洲季风主要受低纬过程控制.      

东亚冬、夏古季风变化的相位差及热带太平洋在季风变化中的驱动作用

斋堂黄土剖面古气候记录表明：１)冬、夏季风在千年尺度上的变化存在相位差；２)冬、夏季风记录在变化趋势上具有互为消长的关系，而在变化幅度和频率方面则有明显的差异。这表明，冬、夏季风在千年尺度上的变化是分别由不同的因素和过程所控制。我们提出热带太平洋海气相互作用系统在东亚季风变化过程中起着直接的驱动作用。     

中东亚中全新世气候与植被反馈作用:PMIP 2多模式结果分析

文章选取了参加国际古气候模拟比较计划(Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project,简称PMIP)的6个耦合气候模式的模拟结果,着重对中全新世中东亚干旱区以及东亚季风区的夏季气候变化(气温、降水)进行分析,探讨了植被反馈作用对这3个区域中全新世气候变化的影响.由于各个模式之...     

南海晚第四纪陆源沉积:粒度组成、动力控制及反映的东亚季风演化

对南海北部MD05-2904孔、西部MD05-2901孔、南部MD05-2897孔的有孔虫氧同位素进行测定,建立了高分辨率的年代地层。对3个孔的陆源碎屑组分的粒度分布进行了测定和主成分因子分析,结果发现,南海北部陆坡（南部陆坡）的陆源碎屑沉积特征主要受单一的因子Fn（Fs）控制,它可以控制62%（59%）的粒度变化特征。与Fn密切相关的粒度组分为1.52～2.92μm和11.8～27.4μm,与Fs相关的粒度组分为<2.42μm和6.76～14.30μm。南海西部陆坡获得两个主控因子Fw1和Fw2,分别控制46%和32%的粒度变化特征,与Fw1相关的粒度组分为1.26～2.66μm和10.8～14.3μm,与Fw2相关的粒度组分为4.24～7.42μm和30.1～43.7μm。对敏感粒级的变化序列进行分析发现,北部的Fn与海平面升降作用紧密相关,呈现冰期/间冰期旋回尺度的周期性。而南部的Fs呈现高频的岁差周期波动,可能与夏季风演化引起的源区风化、河流搬运等的变化有关。南海西部的陆源沉积物主要来自南海的西南和北部两个地区,分别由东亚夏季风和冬季风驱动的洋流搬运,Fw1和Fw2恰恰代表了这两种动力控制。因此,Fw1和Fw2控制的粒度组成变化间接指示了东亚夏季风和冬季风的演化。研究认为,晚第四纪以来东亚夏季风受控于低纬区的夏季日射量的变化,呈现典型的岁差周期性,而冬季风主要受高纬冰盖变化驱动,呈冰期/间冰期旋回尺度的波动,这反映了东亚季风演化的双重驱动机制。     

Aerosol’s Impacts on the Indian Summer Monsoon and the East Asian Summer Monsoon:An Overview

India Peninsula and East Asia are high aerosol loading regions as well as major regions influenced by Asian monsoon. The changes of monsoon intensity and precipitation have great influence on economy, especially agricultural production of monsoon regions. There are many researches of impacts of aerosol on Indian monsoon, which have achieved many comprehensive progresses. Earlier researches show that atmospheric brown cloud caused negative radiative forcing and weakened the warming induced by greenhouse gases. Current researches show that absorbing aerosol enhanced the Indian monsoon and increased rainfall in pre-monsoon season, while the scattering effect of aerosol weakened the Indian summer monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon and rainfall in monsoon season. Due to so many factors affecting the monsoon, researches of aerosol impacts on monsoon become more complex. Thus, these results remain uncertain. This paper reviews previous researches and generalizes the mechanisms of impacts of aerosols on Asian monsoon. By comparing the East Asian summer monsoon with the Indian summer monsoon, we discussed deficiencies of the prior researches, and pointed out the direction for future researches about the impact of aerosol on the Asian summer monsoon, especially on the East Asian summer monsoon.     

南海东北部MD05 2905站36 ka BP以来的陆源碎屑沉积特征与东亚季风的演化

在AMS14C精确定年的基础上，去除有机质、生物碳酸盐和生物硅之后，对南海北部MD05 2905站进行了陆源碎屑的粒度分析。结果显示，15.5～63.5 μm粗粒级成分的含量变化特征可用来指示东亚冬季风的变化，2～9 μm细粒级成分含量变化可用于指示东亚夏季风的变化。末次冰期以冬季风为主，全新世以夏季风为主，36 ka BP以来东亚夏季风有逐渐增强的总体趋势，但也发生多次突变现象，在全新世早期（8 500~11 200 ka BP）达到36ka BP以来的最大值，可能是在岁差周期的控制下，与较强的太阳辐射有关。     

Dynamics of upper tropospheric stationary wave anomalies induced by ENSO during the northern summer: A GCM study

Ensemble seasonal integrations are carried out with the COLA GCM, with a view to understand the dynamical connection between warm SST anomalies in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific Ocean and the upper level stationary wave anomalies seen during drought years over the Indian summer monsoon region. In addition, experiments with and without orography are performed in order to examine the role of the Himalayas in modulating the El Niño induced stationary wave anomalies over the summer monsoon region. The GCM simulations show a statistically significant weakening of the summer monsoon activity over India in response to the SST forcing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This weakening of the summer monsoon appears to be largely related to modifications of the local Hadley and Walker cells over the summer monsoon region. In addition, it is seen that the anomalous ENSO divergent forcing over the tropical Pacific Ocean can act as a potential source for Rossby wave dispersion. Here one finds the possibility of meridionally propagating Rossby waves, which emanate from the ENSO forcing region, to interact with the subtropical westerlies and generate anomalous highs and lows in the subtropics and extratropics. The quasi-stationary perturbations seen over west Asia, Pakistan and northwest India during drought years, seem to be generated by the above mechanism. An alternate mechanism that could be important for the persistence of the quasi-stationary perturbations seems to be based on the dynamic excitation of middle latitude normal modes which can extract energy from the zonally varying unstable basic flow. It is seen from the GCM simulations, that the Himalayan orography plays a crucial role in anchoring the El Niño induced extratropical westerly troughs far to the west in the high latitude belt. In the absence of orography it is seen that the ENSO induced extra-tropical cyclonic anomalies tend to intrude southward into the monsoon region thereby destroying the regional scale circulations completely. Another effect due to the Himalayas is to generate lee waves on the eastern side of the topographic barrier which encircle the globe in the subtropics and midlatitudes.     

Orbital forcing of climate over South Africa: A 200,000-year rainfall record from the pretoria saltpan

Late Pleistocene variations in rainfall in subtropical southern African are estimated from sediments preserved in the Pretoria Saltpan, a 200000 year-old closed-basin crater lake on the interior plateau of South Africa. We show that South African summer rainfall covaried with changes in southern hemisphere summer insolation resulting from orbital precession. As predicted by orbital precession geometry (Berger, 1978), this South African record is out of phase with North African palaeomonsoon indices (Street and Grove, 1979; Rossignol-Strick, 1983; McIntyre et al., 1989); the amplitude of the rainfall response to insolation forcing agrees with climate model estimates (Prell and Kutzbach, 1987). These results document the importance of direct orbital insolation forcing on both subtropical North and South African climate as well as the predicted antiphase sensitivity to precessional insolation forcing.     

西峰剖面午城黄土古风化强度变化与 早更新世季风环境演化*

游离铁(FeD)/全铁(FeT)比值被土壤学界用来反映土壤化学风化强度,并已在风尘堆积的古环境研究中得到较好应用。然而,迄今对第四纪黄土古风化强度的研究多集中于中更新世以来的序列,只有少数剖面的分析包含午城黄土。文章基于西峰剖面661个样品的FeD和FeT分析,建立了该剖面午城黄土的古风化强度序列,并与剖面原有1.2Ma以来的序列进行对比。结果表明,早更新世古土壤的风化强度与后期相比总体较低,而黄土层的风化强度总体偏高,反映了较小的冰期-间冰期反差; 古风化强度的波动总体上与深海氧同位素有较好的一致性,体现了全球冰量变化对我国北方季风环境的控制。2.6~1.6Ma期间,古土壤的平均风化强度在整个第四纪最低,指示了较弱的夏季风环境效应。从约1.6Ma开始到1.2Ma,古土壤和黄土层的风化强度均增加,并开始有较显著的约100ka周期。这些特征在深海氧同位素记录中没有表现,而与热带地区一些环境特征相吻合,从而指示了低纬过程对我国北方早更新世季风环境的显著影响。     

Orbital timing of the Indian,East Asian and African boreal monsoons and the concept of a ‘global monsoon’

Our understanding of monsoon circulation timing’s at the orbital scale is currently a matter of debate. Here, we compare previous and recently published results of Indian, East Asian, West African and East African monsoon variability. We note different timings between the East African, West African, Indian and East-Asian monsoon systems for the most recent 45 ka, where the age models are constrained by AMS dating. On this basis, we construct different orbital forcing “reference curves” and apply them to the 200 ka time period for the different monsoon systems. Our results indicate that the ‘global monsoon’ concept at the orbital scale is a misnomer. We find real regional differences in the timing of the monsoon response to orbital forcing and differences in the weight of precession and obliquity in the monsoon records. This work highlights the necessity of studies aimed at understanding the underlying physics of these regional response patterns. This is crucial to a better understanding of monsoon dynamics and improved climate model simulations and comparisons with proxy data.     

Paleoclimate of Southwestern China for the Past 50,000 yr Inferred from Lake Sediment Records

Long sediment cores (12.5 and 13.5 m) from two lakes in Yunnan Province were used to infer the paleoclimate of southwest China over the past 50,000 yr. During the Holocene and marine isotope stage (MIS 3), bio-induced carbonate precipitation and organic matter (OM) production was high, suggesting warm temperatures and high primary productivity. In contrast, sediment inorganic carbon (IC) and organic carbon (OC) concentrations were low in last glacial deposits from 38,000 to 12,000 cal yr B.P., indicating cool temperatures and low productivity. The 50,000-yr record has alternating peaks of carbonate and coarse-grain (>38 μm) quartz that reflect warm, moist interglacial or interstadial conditions alternating with cold, dry glacial or stadial conditions, respectively. Spectral analysis of the carbonate and quartz signals reveals power concentrated at periods of 7200 and 8900 cal yr, respectively, that may reflect a nonlinear climate response to precessional forcing at a time of reduced eccentricity modulation (McIntyre and Molfino, 1996). Oxygen isotope values of calcite from Yunnan lake cores indicate the summer monsoon was weak during the last glaciation from 50,000 to 12,000 cal yr B.P. The summer monsoon intensified between 12,000 and 8000 cal yr B.P., but weakened gradually in response to insolation forcing during the mid-to-late Holocene. Our results support the Overpeck et al. (1996) model that posits a weak summer monsoon during the last glaciation that responded nonlinearly to insolation forcing when its intensity was affected by Eurasian snow cover and ice-sheet extent. The summer monsoon intensified and responded linearly to seasonal insolation forcing in the Holocene when ice volume diminished.     

最近11万年来东亚季风轨道与千年尺度气候变率在南京下蜀黄土中的记录

对南京李家岗下蜀黄土剖面上部的近20 m地层进行野外观察和室内研究,划分出5层黄土和5层古土壤,按5 cm间距采集了Rb/Sr、色度、磁化率和粒度样品,并在剖面和可追索的相邻剖面上采集了13个光释光测年样品。分析结果显示,Rb/Sr、色度和磁化率等夏季风代用指标曲线所表现的4次岁差变率振荡具有高度的一致性,依据气候地层...     

意大利上新世古生产力的轨道驱动

主要研究了意大利上新统3个剖面Punta Piccola、Cape Spertivento以及Punta Rossello蛋白石含量的变化,综合其它古环境指标对非洲季风和地中海表层生产力加以分析,研究表明,Punta Piccola剖面和Cape Spertivento剖面各古环境指标对岁差周期影响的响应明显而单纯,即岁差低值,对应氧同位素偏负,有机碳和蛋白石高值以及碳酸盐低值,说明地中海表层生产力明显受到岁差的驱动。岁差驱动下的北非夏季风导致尼罗河泛滥,带来的丰富营养元素使得生产力剧增,同时淡水注入,阻碍了水体的垂向交换,直接导致了海底的缺氧环境,硅藻利用深层营养产生勃发,并组成“藻席”,快速沉降到海底,使得有机碳迅速埋葬和保存,从而引发了腐泥层的形成。Punta Rossello剖面硅藻层证实了“藻席”的存在,但是蛋白石含量并不高。 [HT5H]关 键 词:[HT5K] [HT5H]中图分类号： 文献标识码：A[HT5SS][HK]     

Sedimentary characteristics of terrigenous debris at site MD05-2905 in the northeastern part of the South China Sea since 36 ka and evolution of the East Asian monsoon

Sediments with high sedimentation rate at site MD05-2905 in the Northeastern slope of the South China Sea provide unique materials for a high-resolution study on the paleoenvironment. Based on precise dating of AMS ¹⁴C, grain size analysis of terrigenous debris at core MD05-2905 was conducted after organic matter, biological carbonate and biogenic opal were removed. The results show that 15.5–63.5 μm coarse grain size ingredients may indicate East Asian winter monsoon changes and that 2–9 μm fine grain size ingredients may be used as a proxy of evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon. The results of grain size analysis, which suggest East Asian monsoon intensity, reveal that a winter monsoon dominated the glacial regime and a summer monsoon dominated the Holocene regime. It was also shown that the summer monsoon increased gradually, experienced several abrupt changes and reached a culmination in the early Holocene (11200–8500 a B.P.) since 36 ka. Controlled by precession periodicity, it may be related with the amount of solar radiation at the highest stage, which needs further study. __________ Translated from Advances in Earth Science, 2007, 22(10): 1012–1018 [译自: 地球科学进展]