From vulnerability to immunization—A genealogy of early attempts to deal with the climate

In an age of anthropogenic climate change, risk and vulnerability have become common parlance. Yet the histories of both concepts are bound up in the colonial project. This article attempts to give a brief genealogy of these concepts by considering their evolution within early colonial attempts to deal with the dangers and threats posed by a tropical climate. This article argues that British and French colonial writers and administrators began to understand the dangers associated with colonizing distant lands as distinct risks associated with living in a tropical climate. Tropical fevers, ecological devastation, famine and revolt in particular spurred on the development of new knowledge, which advanced understandings of the effects of the tropical climate both on European health and long‐term colonial ambitions. In turn the concept of a pernicious tropical climate that posed a biological threat to the health of Europeans came to play a major role in configuring prevailing notions of race, health and morality. Risk and vulnerability have been key discursive features of new knowledges and governmental technologies crafted in the context of colonialism to secure European rule over distant lands and people.     

全球气候变化背景下生态系统的脆弱性评价

未来100年气候变暖速度将比上一世纪提高2－10倍,势必对生态系统的格局、过程和服务功能产生巨大影响,威胁生态系统和社会经济的持续发展。因此评价全球气候变化背景下生态系统脆弱性是当前全球变化和生态系统研究的主要内容。由于气候变化以及生态系统对其响应和适应的复杂性,生态系统脆弱性评价进展缓慢。本文在阐明生态系统脆弱性概念的基础上,综述了近年来国内外关于气候变化对生态系统影响及其脆弱性评价研究的现状、方法,归纳和介绍了脆弱性评价研究的三种主要方法——模型模拟研究、指标评价研究以及类比研究,指出气候变化的脆弱性评价研究中存在的问题、不足以及今后的发展方向。     

From impacts to embodied experiences: tracing political ecology in climate change research

Political ecology has long moved on from its initial skepticism of big science engagements and cursory critiques of simplistic vulnerability approaches. Its core strengths lie in understanding the contestation of inequalities, marginalization, and injustices in access to and control over resources, neoliberal politics of environmental change, and dominant environmental narratives, while incorporating new insights from development ethics, feminist social theory, and resilience thinking. Today’s theoretical lenses allow for an understanding of causal relations in climate debates that exceed narrowly defined impact studies. I focus on four areas that exemplify shifts in engagement with adaptation, stretch themes of inquiry, and delineate zones for analysis and action: (1) reconnecting scale: multiscalar interactions, scalar dimensions of practice, and traversing scales from embodied experiences to the global intimate; (2) destabilizing gender: from gendered vulnerability and adaptive capacity to fragmented identities and intersectionality; (3) repositioning persistent inequalities: from rights to responsibilities, mutual fragility, and human security; and (4) reframing certainty: from climate proofing to limits, traps, and transformative change. Methodologically, I advocate for opening space for collective and anticipatory learning, creative envisioning, rehearsing for reality, and dynamic planning in the context of multiple and synergistic stressors, all powerful countervoices to hegemonic integrated modeling and numeric vulnerability indices.     

Multi-level climate adaptation policy and causation narratives

Climate adaptation policies are meant to reduce the negative consequences of the impacts associated with anthropogenic climate change, and in turn their success often depends on causal relationships within natural and human systems. In this paper, I examine the use of narratives about these causal relationships and explore why narratives with little basis in observation can persist in guiding policy. I examine three case studies, one concerning a narrative of climate impacts, a second concerning the relationship between household wealth and vulnerability, and the third concerning the procedures and needs of policy-makers themselves. In each case, I find that the narrative that was needed to legitimize and continue the resource flow within an existing policy process continued, despite growing empirical and model-driven evidence to suggest that the narrative may not be correct. I compare these stories with theories from sociological and evolutionary theory and suggest the importance of correcting or improving policy processes to avoid this pathology.     

中国自然生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性评估

生态系统的脆弱性已经成为气候变化影响评估和适应性管理的关键问题。本文介绍和分析了生态系统的脆弱性、敏感性和阈值的概念,中国生态环境的敏感带和脆弱性,脆弱性评估和中国生态系统脆弱分布以及自然生态系统的可持续性和适应减缓对策。自然生态系统对气候变化脆弱性评估仍存在许多问题和不确定性,迫切需要在以下领域开展研究:自主开发新一代气候变化对生态系统影响综合评估模型(特别是双向耦合模型)、加强相关野外长期观测实验、开展适应性与可持续发展示范工程的研究等。     

Steppin' in it: postcoloniality in northern Pakistan

This paper examines the transcultural relations between researchers and research subjects in a postcolonial research setting. I draw from my experience doing dissertation research in northern Pakistan to discuss how my research subjects' effectively constructed me as a sahib, or what I saw as a colonial subject position. I examine the ways that my research subjects and I co-constructed, although unequally, my position and location as a researcher. The asymmetries of power relations in research are exacerbated by postcolonial relations in this contact zone. The contribution of those I researched is significant towards understanding our locations as postcolonial subjects in this research setting, and the location from which I produced the research. While it was difficult to do research as anyone other than a sahib during my research, the stories I tell and metaphors I employ in this paper attempt to destabilize my location as a colonial sahib, an authority. The scatological references that run throughout this paper are an attempt to write against the inherently colonial epistemologies that underpin geographic research more generally.     

High-resolution spatial assessment of population vulnerability to climate change in Nepal

Current, spatially explicit, and high-resolution assessments of population vulnerability to climate change and variability in developing countries can be difficult to create due to lack of data or financial and technical capacity constraints. We propose a comparative, multiple-approach framework to assess the spatial variation of population vulnerability to climatic changes using several high-resolution variables related to climate, topography, and socioeconomic conditions with an objective to detect the spatial variability of climate vulnerability in Nepal. Nepal is one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change due to frequent climatic hazards and poor socio-economic capacity. We used a climate vulnerability index (CVI) approach to derive climate vulnerability maps at the one-kilometer resolution and test an additive and a principal components-based composite method of data aggregation. In this work, we attempt to answer three questions. 1) How do different methods of assessment inform the spatial variation of the climate vulnerability in Nepal? 2) How do different variables interact to shape climate vulnerability in Nepal? 3) What proportions of the population in Nepal are vulnerable to climatic disasters and why? Our analysis uncovered significant spatial variations in population vulnerability to climate change across Nepal, with the highest vulnerability being experienced by the High Mountain region followed by the regions in the lower elevations. We find that although the lack of adaptive capacity is the biggest cause of population vulnerability to climate change in Nepal, a resilient community is shaped by both biophysical and socioeconomic characteristics. By performing an iterative sensitivity analysis of our thirteen variables both at the aggregate level (nationally) as well as at the more disaggregated (physiographic region) level, we contribute to identifying important, multi-scalar driving factors for vulnerability that can be employed as leverage points for lowering vulnerability at different scales. After performing analyses at multiple regions, we conclude that region-specific variable selection is needed for more detailed assessments and in order to prioritize adaptation strategies at scales that go beyond the hierarchy of administrative divisions.     

Climate change effects at your doorstep: Geographic visualization to support Nordic homeowners in adapting to climate change

The complexity of climate information, particularly as related to climate scenarios, impacts, and action alternatives, poses significant challenges for science communication. This study presents a geographic visualization approach involving lay audiences to address these challenges. VisAdapt™ is a web-based visualization tool designed to improve Nordic homeowners’ understanding of climate change vulnerability and to support their adaptive actions. VisAdapt is structured to enable individual users to explore several climate change impact parameters, including temperature and precipitation, for their locations and to find information on specific adaptation measures for their house types and locations. The process of testing the tool included a focus group study with homeowners in Norway, Denmark, and Sweden to assess key challenges in geographic visualization, such as the level of interactivity and information. The paper concludes that geographic visualization tools can support homeowners’ climate adaptation processes, but that certain features, such as downscaled climate information are a key element expected by users. Although the assessment of interactivity and data varied both across countries and user experience, a general conclusion is that a geographic visualization tool, like VisAdapt, can make climate change effects and adaptation alternatives tangible and initiate discussions and collaborative reflections.     

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural and urban interior Alaska

This paper explores whether fundamental differences exist between urban and rural vulnerability to climate-induced changes in the fire regime of interior Alaska. We further examine how communities and fire managers have responded to these changes and what additional adaptations could be put in place. We engage a variety of social science methods, including demographic analysis, semi-structured interviews, surveys, workshops and observations of public meetings. This work is part of an interdisciplinary study of feedback and interactions between climate, vegetation, fire and human components of the Boreal forest social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We have learned that although urban and rural communities in interior Alaska face similar increased exposure to wildfire as a result of climate change, important differences exist in their sensitivity to these biophysical, climate-induced changes. In particular, reliance on wild foods, delayed suppression response, financial resources and institutional connections vary between urban and rural communities. These differences depend largely on social, economic and institutional factors, and are not necessarily related to biophysical climate impacts per se. Fire management and suppression action motivated by political, economic or other pressures can serve as unintentional or indirect adaptation to climate change. However, this indirect response alone may not sufficiently reduce vulnerability to a changing fire regime. More deliberate and strategic responses may be required, given the magnitude of the expected climate change and the likelihood of an intensification of the fire regime in interior Alaska.     

湿地脆弱性评价研究进展

湿地脆弱性评价是近年来湿地科学及可持续性科学领域的热点和前沿.湿地脆弱性评价研究经历了从湿地脆弱性特征定性评价,到湿地脆弱性定量评价,再到气候变化下湿地脆弱性评价的发展历程.首先,在对湿地脆弱性概念归纳总结的基础上,提出湿地脆弱性是在自然环境和人为压力下湿地退化的程度和可能性.其次,定性介绍了水土流失、水热分配不均、湿地退化等主要脆弱性特征表现;并以脆弱性评价的基本步骤为主线论述了模型法、特征法、综合指数法、EFI评价法、空间分析法等主要研究方法;同时,从不同角度概述了气候变化背景下的湿地脆弱性,总结了湿地水文景观分类法、生物完整性指标法、模型法、空间分析等评价方法.最后,指出湿地脆弱性研究中存在的概念不统一、评价标准不一致、评价指标范围较狭窄、动态研究偏少、定量评价的不确定性等主要问题,提出了完善评价体系、加强动态研究和国内对气候变化下湿地脆弱性的定量研究以及不确定性分析、脆弱性评价与决策管理衔接等湿地脆弱性未来研究的重点.     

沙漠化脆弱性的概念与评价

全球变暖背景下,气候变化和人类活动对沙漠化的影响成为可持续发展研究的热点问题.首先,本文基于对脆弱性概念发展的简要回顾,结合气候变化研究中的脆弱性,提出沙漠化脆弱性的概念和理论体系.其次,梳理国内外关于脆弱性评价的文献,依据沙漠化系统的特点阐释了沙漠化脆弱性评价体系、评价内容及评价方法.最后,列举沙漠化脆弱性研究中需要解决的问题,明确中国沙漠化脆弱性评价的未来特点和趋势.     

Perceptions of Climate Vulnerability,Tenure Security and Resettlement Priorities: insights from Lami Town,Fiji Islands

The future impact of climate change will be a considerable challenge for all countries, and in particular Small Island Developing States. Challenges related to climate vulnerability and tenure security are exacerbated in areas of rapid urbanisation and urban growth, with highly vulnerable informal settlements a common result. Drawing on research into vulnerable informal settlements in the Greater Suva Urban Area in Fiji, this research seeks to better understand perceptions of climate vulnerability, adaptive capacity, tenure security and options for resettlement. This research confirmed that there are important linkages at the settlement level between tenure security, perception of vulnerability, and people’s ability to adapt. Two critical factors in any decision to resettle people are (i) providing tenure security for all people affected, and (ii) considering livelihood impacts as a result of resettlement. We conclude that vulnerability, tenure security and resettlement decisions are complex issues and specific to individual settlements, and to specific households within settlements.     

Climate extremes in the United States: recent research by physical geographers

This paper reports our review of research on domestic climate extremes conducted by US physical geographers over the past 15?years. Sections cover extremes in wind, precipitation, lightning, and temperature, as well as derivative climate extremes (droughts, floods, and storm surges). Themes considered include: the spatial and temporal distribution of the climate extreme; its implications for our understanding of the physical processes that produce it; the spatial and temporal distributions of the extreme’s economic and human costs; lessons for assessment, policy, and management; and scale. We conclude that most of the works reviewed inadequately address the human basis of vulnerability to climate extremes, and encourage physical geographers to work with colleagues from the other subfields of geography and the social sciences to develop the holistic understanding of vulnerability needed to effectively adapt to the more extreme climate projected under climate change.     

Climate change in the Arctic: current and future vulnerability in two Inuit communities in Canada

Climate change is already occurring in the Arctic and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment recently concluded that future climate change could be devastating for Inuit. This paper characterises vulnerability to climate change in two Inuit communities in the Canadian territory of Nunavut, focusing on the resource harvesting sector. In both communities, Inuit have demonstrated significant adaptability in the face of current changes in climatic conditions. This adaptability is facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, strong social networks, flexibility in resource use, and institutional support. Changing Inuit livelihoods, however, have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities. Global and regional climate projections indicate that climatic conditions which currently pose risks are expected to be negatively affected by future climate change. These projections are not without precedent and analysis of current vulnerability and identification of adaptation constraints by Inuit in the two communities indicate the continued importance of traditional coping mechanisms. The ability to draw on these coping mechanisms in light of future climate change, however, will be unequal and the research indicates that young Inuit and those without access to economic resources, in particular, are vulnerable.     

气候变化情景下中国自然生态系统脆弱性研究——一个基于生态地理区域的研究(英文)

Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology, and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study, LPJ model modified according to features of China's natural ecosystems was employed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions, vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China's natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability would not be altered by climate change, which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in ecosystem vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by climate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there would be severely adverse effect, particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.     

Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in China under regional climate scenarios：An analysis based on eco-geographical regions

Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology,and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study,LPJ model modified according to features of China's natural ecosystems was employed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2,B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions,vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China's natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west,but the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability would not be altered by climate change,which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in ecosystem vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale,natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by climate change. However,in mid-term and long-term scales,there would be severely adverse effect,particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.     

Vulnerability of natural ecosystem in China under regional climate scenarios:An analysis based on eco-geographical regions简

Assessment of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change is a hot topic in climate change and ecology, and will support adapting and mitigating climate change. In this study, LPJ model modified according to features of China＇s natural ecosystems was em- ployed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2, B2 and A1B scenarios. Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was assessed according to the vulnerability assessment model. Based on eco-geographical regions, vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change was analyzed. Results suggest that vulnerability for China＇s natural ecosystems would strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulner- ability would not be altered by climate change, which rises from southeast to northeast gradually. Increase in ecosystem vulnerable degree would mainly concentrate in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Decrease in eco- system vulnerable degree may emerge in northwestern arid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in China would be slightly affected by cli- mate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there would be severely adverse effect, particularly in the east with better water and thermal condition.     

区域气候变化脆弱性综合评估研究进展

区域脆弱性评估为脆弱性地区农户摆脱贫困、区域持续发展和政府制定适应策略提供科学依据.由于区域内部人地系统的复杂性,区域的脆弱性定量评估较为困难.中国脆弱性研究起步较晚,关注较早的是脆弱性区域的分布,但对区域内脆弱人群的脆弱性研究较少,认识上的不足影响了国家和地方政府制定科学的适应政策和措施.本文介绍了对脆弱性的认识,梳...     

气候变化情景下中国自然生态系统脆弱性研究

本研究以动态植被模型LPJ 为主要工具,以区域气候模式工具PRECIS 产生的A2、B2和A1B情景气候数据为输入,模拟了未来气候变化下中国自然生态系统的变化状况,应用脆弱性评价模型,评估中国自然生态系统响应未来气候变化的脆弱性。结果表明:未来气候变化情景下中国东部地区脆弱程度呈上升趋势,西部地区呈下降趋势,但总体上,中国自然生态系统的脆弱性格局没有大的变化,仍呈现西高东低、北高南低的特点。受气候变化影响严重的地区是东北和华北地区,而青藏高原区南部和西北干旱区受气候变化影响,脆弱程度明显减轻。气候变化情景下的近期气候变化对我国生态系统的影响不大,但中、远期气候变化对生态系统的负面影响较大,特别是在自然条件相对较好的东部地区,脆弱区面积增加较多。     

全球环境变化对我国区域发展的可能影响评述

随着环境问题的日益突出,全球环境变化的区域响应已成为我国全球变化研究的优先领域和热点问题之一。国内外学者就全球问题与区域问题的结合达成共识:全球性问题的研究需要由区域工作来完成;区域性研究必须体现全球性问题。本文介绍了全球变化对区域发展影响评价的基本方法,特别是IPCC评价报告中采用的区域脆弱性、敏感性评价方法;概述了我国未来50年环境变化的可能情景;从自然生态系统变化、水资源短缺、沙漠化、农业生产等方面评述了全球环境变化对我国区域发展可能影响研究的进展和成果,最后指出了全球变化区域响应研究存在的问题,并对其发展方向作了展望。