Implications of vortex initialization and model spin-up in tropical cyclone prediction using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model

The roles of vortex initialization and model spin-up in tropical cyclone (TC) prediction using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) Model are studied through a case study of NARGIS (2008) cyclone over Bay of Bengal. ARW model is designed to have three two-way interactive nested domains, and a suite of 36 numerical experiments are performed with three values of maximum wind (MW), four of radius of maximum wind (RMW), and three of α and one experiment without vortex initialization. The results indicate that vortex initialization is important toward realistic representation of initial structure and location of cyclone vortex. Model spin-up during the first 18–24 h of model integration lead to faster intensification than of the real atmosphere, thus a weaker initial vortex evolved more realistically. Three experiments from vortex initialization produced MW and RMW nearer to the observations, but none of these produced a good prediction due to unrealistic intensification during model spin-up. A weaker vortex with intensity less than 50 % than observations produced the best forecast in terms of intensity, track, and landfall. The results suggest that slightly larger (~30 %) RMW than observations with α as ?0.5 (for 81 km model resolution) that produces weaker vortex is to be implemented in the design of bogus vortex. This study assesses the merits of TC bogus scheme in ARW model, illustrates the need for vortex initialization, and analyzes the spin-up problem in cold-start model simulations of TC prediction.     

Impact of bogus vortex for track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclone

The initialization scheme designed to improve the representation of a tropical cyclone in the initial condition is tested during Orissa super cyclone (1999) over Bay of Bengal using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University — National Center for Atmospheric Research (Penn State — NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5). A series of numerical experiments are conducted to generate initial vortices by assimilating the bogus wind information into MM5. Wind speed and location of the tropical cyclone obtained from best track data are used to define maximum wind speed, and centre of the storm respectively, in the initial vortex. The initialization scheme produced an initial vortex that was well adapted to the forecast model and was much more realistic in size and intensity than the storm structure obtained from the NCEP analysis. Using this scheme, the 24-h, 48-h, and 72-h forecast errors for this case was 63, 58, and 46 km, respectively, compared with 120, 335, and 550 km for the non-vortex initialized case starting from the NCEP global analysis. When bogus vortices are introduced into initial conditions, the significant improvements in the storm intensity predictions are also seen. The impact of the vortex size on the structure of the initial vortex is also evaluated. We found that when the radius of maximum wind (RMW) of the specified vortex is smaller than that of which can be resolved by the model, the specified vortex is not well adapted by the model. In contrast, when the vortex is sufficiently large for it to be resolved on horizontal grid, but not so large to be unrealistic, more accurate storm structure is obtained.     

On the role of the Planetary Boundary Layer in the numerical simulation of a severe cyclonic storm Nargis using a mesoscale model

The very severe cyclonic storm Nargis of 2008 was a strong tropical cyclone that caused the deadliest natural disaster in the history of Myanmar. The time tested NCAR/PSU MM5 model has been used to simulate the Nargis cyclone, which is designed to have two domains covering the Bay of Bengal with horizontal resolutions of 90 and 30?km. The physics options chosen are Kain?CFritsch 2 for convection, Blackadar (BLA), Burk?CThompson, medium range forecast (MRF), Eta Mellor?CYamada (Eta MY) and Gayno?CSeaman (GS) for Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and Simple Ice for explicit cloud physics processes. The experiment was conducted with the model integration starting from April 27, 2008, to May 3, 2008. The performance of the five PBL schemes is evaluated in terms of radius height cross-section of the three component winds, surface heat fluxes of sensible heat and latent heat, equivalent potential temperature (?? _e ), precipitation, track and variation of Central Surface Pressure and wind speed with time. The numerical results show a large impact of the PBL schemes on the intensity and movement of the system. The intensity of the storm is examined in terms of pressure drop, strength of the surface wind and rainfall associated with the storm. The results are compared to the India Meteorological Department observations. These experiments indicate that the intensity of the storm is well simulated with the Eta MY and BLA with finer resolution. The simulated track with MRF compared well with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center observation at landfall position both with the 90 and 30?km resolutions.     

Impact of sea surface temperature in modulating movement and intensity of tropical cyclones

It is well recognized that sea surface temperature (SST) plays a dominant role in the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones. A number of observational/empirical studies were conducted at different basins to investigate the influence of SST on the intensification of tropical cyclones and in turn, modification in SST by the cyclone itself. Although a few modeling studies confirmed the sensitivity of model simulation/forecast to SST, it is not well quantified, particularly for Bay of Bengal cyclones. The present study is designed to quantify the sensitivity of SST on mesoscale simulation of an explosively deepening storm over the Bay of Bengal, i.e., Orissa super cyclone (1999). Three numerical experiments are conducted with climatological SST, NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) skin temperature as SST, and observed SST (satellite derived) toward 5-day simulation of the storm using mesoscale model MM5. At model initial state, NCEP skin temperature and observed SST over the Bay of Bengal are 1–2°C warmer than climatological SST, but cooler by nearly 1°C along the coastline. Observed SST shows a number of warm patches in the Bay of Bengal compared with NCEP skin temperature. The simulation results indicate that the sea surface temperature has a significant impact on model-simulated track and intensity of the cyclonic storm. The track and intensity of the storm is better simulated with the use of satellite-observed SST.     

Performance of nested WRF model in typhoon simulations over West Pacific and South China Sea

Forecasting skill of weather research and forecasting (WRF) model in simulating typhoons over the West Pacific and South China Sea with different trajectories has been studied in terms of track direction and intensity. Four distinct types of typhoons are chosen for this study in such a way that one of them turns toward left during its motion and had landfall, while the second took a right turn before landfall. The third typhoon followed almost a straight line path during its course of motion, while the fourth typhoon tracked toward the coast and just before landfall, ceased its motion and travelled in reverse direction. WRF model has been nested in one way with a coarse resolution of 9?km and a fine resolution of 3?km for this study, and the experiments are performed with National Center for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecasting System (NCEP-GFS) analyses and forecast fields. The model has been integrated up to 96?h and the simulation results are compared with observed and analyzed fields. The results show that the WRF model could satisfactorily simulate the typhoons in terms of time and location of landfall, mean sea-level pressure, maximum wind speed, etc. Results also show that the sensitivity of model resolution is less in predicting the track, while the fine-resolution model component predicted slightly better in terms of central pressure drop and maximum wind. In the case of typhoon motion speed, the coarse-resolution component of the model predicted the landfall time ahead of the actual, whereas the finer one produced either very close to the best track or lagging little behind the best track though the difference in forecast between the model components is minimal. The general tendency of track error forecast is that it increases almost linearly up to 48?h of model simulations and then it diverges quickly. The results also show that the salient features of typhoons such as warm central core, radial increase of wind speed, etc. are simulated well by both the coarse and fine domains of the WRF model.     

Impact of physical parameterization schemes on numerical simulation of super cyclone Gonu

The objective of this study is to investigate in detail the sensitivity of cumulus, planetary boundary layer and explicit cloud microphysics parameterization schemes on intensity and track forecast of super cyclone Gonu (2007) using the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). Three sets of sensitivity experiments (totally 11 experiments) are conducted to examine the impact of each of the aforementioned parameterization schemes on the storm’s track and intensity forecast. Convective parameterization schemes (CPS) include Grell (Gr), Betts–Miller (BM) and updated Kain–Fritsch (KF2); planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes include Burk–Thompson (BT), Eta Mellor–Yamada (MY) and the Medium-Range Forecast (MRF); and cloud microphysics parameterization schemes (MPS) comprise Warm Rain (WR), Simple Ice (SI), Mixed Phase (MP), Goddard Graupel (GG), Reisner Graupel (RG) and Schultz (Sc). The model configuration for CPS and PBL experiments includes two nested domains (90- and 30-km resolution), and for MPS experiments includes three nested domains (90-, 30- and 10-km grid resolution). It is found that the forecast track and intensity of the cyclone are most sensitive to CPS compared to other physical parameterization schemes (i.e., PBL and MPS). The simulated cyclone with Gr scheme has the least forecast track error, and KF2 scheme has highest intensity. From the results, influence of cumulus convection on steering flow of the cyclone is evident. It appears that combined effect of midlatitude trough interaction, strength of the anticyclone and intensity of the storm in each of these model forecasts are responsible for the differences in respective track forecast of the cyclone. The PBL group of experiments has less influence on the track forecast of the cyclone compared to CPS. However, we do note a considerable variation in intensity forecast due to variations in PBL schemes. The MY scheme produced reasonably better forecast within the group with a sustained warm core and better surface wind fields. Finally, results from MPS set of experiments demonstrate that explicit moisture schemes have profound impact on cyclone intensity and moderate impact on cyclone track forecast. The storm produced from WR scheme is the most intensive in the group and closer to the observed strength. The possible reason attributed for this intensification is the combined effect of reduction in cooling tendencies within the storm core due to the absence of melting process and reduction of water loading in the model due to absence of frozen hydrometeors in the WR scheme. We also note a good correlation between evolution of frozen condensate and storm intensification rate among these experiments. It appears that the Sc scheme has some systematic bias and because of that we note a substantial reduction in the rain water formation in the simulated storm when compared to others within the group. In general, it is noted that all the sensitivity experiments have a tendency to unrealistically intensify the storm at the later part of the integration phase.     

Consistency in hurricane surface wind forecasting: an improved parametric model

A parametric hurricane wind model has been developed based on the asymmetric Holland-type vortex model. The model creates a two-dimensional surface wind field based on the National Hurricane Center forecast (or observed) hurricane wind and track data. Three improvements have been made to retain consistency between the input parameters and the model output and to better resolve the asymmetric structure of the hurricane. First, in determination of the shape parameter B, the Coriolis effect is included and the range restriction is removed. It is found that ignoring the Coriolis effect can lead to an error greater than 20% in the maximum wind speed for weak but large tropical cyclones. Second, the effect of the translational velocity of a hurricane is excluded from the input of specified wind speeds before applying the Holland-type vortex to avoid exaggeration of the wind asymmetry. The translational velocity is added back in at the very end of the procedure. Third, a new method has been introduced to develop a weighted composite wind field that makes full use of all wind parameters, not just the largest available specified wind speed and its 4-quadrant radii. An idealized hurricane and two historical Gulf of Mexico hurricanes have been used to test the model. It is found that the modified parametric model leads to better agreement with field observation compared with the results from the unmodified model. This will result in better predictions of hurricane waves and storm surges.     

A statistical cyclone intensity prediction (SCIP) model for the Bay of Bengal

A statistical model for predicting the intensity of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal has been proposed. The model is developed applying multiple linear regression technique. The model parameters are determined from the database of 62 cyclones that developed over the Bay of Bengal during the period 1981–2000. The parameters selected as predictors are: initial storm intensity, intensity changes during past 12 hours, storm motion speed, initial storm latitude position, vertical wind shear averaged along the storm track, vorticity at 850 hPa, Divergence at 200 hPa and sea surface temperature (SST). When the model is tested with the dependent samples of 62 cyclones, the forecast skill of the model for forecasts up to 72 hours is found to be reasonably good. The average absolute errors (AAE) are less than 10 knots for forecasts up to 36 hours and maximum forecast error of order 14 knots occurs at 60 hours and 72 hours. When the model is tested with the independent samples of 15 cyclones (during 2000 to 2007), the AAE is found to be less than 13 knots (ranging from 5.1 to 12.5 knots) for forecast up to 72 hours. The model is found to be superior to the empirical model proposed by Roy Bhowmik et al (2007) for the Bay of Bengal.     

Intensification of Aila (May 2009) due to a warm core eddy in the north Bay of Bengal

A very severe cyclonic storm ??Aila?? hit West Bengal on 26 May 2009. The storm intensified when it encountered with a warm core (SST?=?31°C) anti-cyclonic eddy (ACE4) in the north Bay of Bengal. The storm intensity increased by 43% due to this eddy, which is comparable with that (34%) obtained from a best fit line (derived from several numerical experiments over north-west Pacific Ocean). The shallow mixed layer of the large-scale ocean and deep mixed layer inside the eddy appear to be crucial parameters besides translation speed of the storm (Uh), ambient relative humidity and thermal stratification below mixed layer, in the storm intensification. From the eddy size and Uh, the eddy feedback factor is found to be about 0.4 (i.e. 40%), which is close to the above. Since there exists an inverse relationship between Uh and UOHC (upper ocean heat content), slow (fast) moving storms require high (low) UOHC. The warm ACE4 with a high UOHC of 149?kj/cm² (300% higher than the climatological value) and deep warm layer (D26?=?126?m) opposes the cooling induced by the storm and helps for the intensification of the storm through the supply of large enthalpy (latent?+?sensible) flux.     

Chain-type structure in the H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O maser NGC 7538N

An analysis of the H₂O maser emission toward the source NGC 7538N, which is associated with an active star-forming region, is reported. The analysis is based on 24 years of monitoring in the 1.35-cm line using the the 22-m radio telescope of the Pushchino Radio Astronomy Observatory in 1981–2005 with a spectral resolution of 0.101 km/s. Individual spectral components have been isolated, and temporal drifts in their radial velocities found. From time to time, the drifts were accompanied by velocity jumps. This can be explained if there are chains consisting of clumps of material that are elongated in the radial direction toward the star and have a radial-velocity gradient. In 1982–2005, two maser activity cycles were observed, during which the chains were activated. We propose that shocks consecutively cross the chain elements and excite maser emission in them. The longest chain, at a radial velocity of ?58 km/s, has not fewer than 15 links. For a shock velocity of 15 km/s, the chain step is estimated to be ≤1.5 AU. The chains could be located in a circumstellar disk with a width of ≤10¹⁵ cm. A structure in the form of a rotating nonuniform vortex with the rotation period of about 1.6 years has also been detected. The translational motion of the vortex may be a consequence of its orbital motion within the protoplanetary disk.     

Some characteristics of typhoons as revealed by the recent SSM/I microwave radiometry

Tropical cyclones are notorious for their destruction. Because they occur mostly over oceans their structures are revealed only through aerial reconnaissance, radar or through satellites. The recently launched DMSP satellite (F8) has provided polarized microwave Brightness Temperatures, TB's. Using certain algorithms, rainrates and wind speeds were derived for a few typhoons.The 85 GHz TB's available at nearly 15 km intervals, disclosed that low values such as 230 K are registered within 2° of the advancing side of the center. These low TB's moved centerward as the typhoon developed further. They propagated rearwards as the storm weakened.Convective rainrates, defined as those equalling or exceeding 3 mm h^–1, within the core, seem to set trends for the intensification. On the other hand convective rain outside the core had a negative effect on the storm. Similarly convective rainrates within the core of developing storms were significantly different from those of the weakening typhoons while the corresponding stratiform rainrates were not markedly different between intensifying and deintensifying ones. Some typhoons developed strong winds exceeding 30 m s^–1 even as far from the center as 440 km. The derived speeds decreased in accuracy in rain situations.These preliminary results are to be interpreted with caution in view of the recency of the algorithms and the smallness of the sample. However, the hazards scientist would find the SSM/I data to be valuable in forewarning the public and in using these data for purposes such as surge forecasting.     

Twenty-year-long monitoring of the H2O maser S269

Results of observations of the H₂O maser in S269 carried out from October 1980 to February 2001 on the 22-m telescope (RT-22) of the Pushchino Radio Astronomy Observatory are presented. During the monitoring of S269, variability of the integrated flux of the maser emission with a cyclic character and an average period of 5.7 years was observed. This may be connected with cyclic activity of the central star during its formation. Emission at radial velocities of 4–7 km/s was detected. Thus, the H₂O maser emission in S269 extends from 4 to 22 km/s, and is concentrated in three radial-velocity intervals: 4–7, 11–14, and 14–22 km/s. In some time intervals, the main group of emission features (14–22 km/s) had a triplet structure. The central velocity of the total spectrum is close to the velocity of the CO molecular cloud and HII region, differing from it by an amount that is within the probable dispersion of the turbulent gas velocities in the core of the CO molecular cloud. A radial-velocity drift of the component at V _LSR≈20 km/s with a period of ≈26 years has been detected. This drift is likely due to turbulent (vortical) motions of material.     

Track prediction of very severe cyclone ‘Nargis’ using high resolution weather research forecasting (WRF) model

The recent very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) ‘Nargis’ over the Bay of Bengal caused widespread destruction over Myanmar after hitting the coast on 2 May 2008. The real time forecasting of the VSCS ‘Nargis’ was a very difficult task as it did not follow the normal westerly/northwesterly track. In the present study, a detailed diagnostic analysis of the system ‘Nargis’ is carried out initially to investigate the features associated with this unusual movement and subsequently the real time forecast of VSCS ‘Nargis’ using high resolution advanced version weather research forecasting (WRF) model is presented. The advanced research WRF model was run for 72 h at 27 km and 20 km resolutions with 28, 29, 30 April and 1 May as the initial conditions. The diagnostic study indicates that the recurvature of the system ‘Nargis’ was mainly associated with:

Real-time prediction of a severe cyclone ��Jal�� over Bay of Bengal using a high-resolution mesoscale model WRF (ARW)

Real-time predictions for the JAL severe cyclone formed in November 2010 over Bay of Bengal using a high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF ARW) mesoscale model are presented. The predictions are evaluated with different initial conditions and assimilation of observations. The model is configured with two-way interactive nested domains and with fine resolution of 9?km for the region covering the Bay of Bengal. Simulations are performed with NCEP GFS 0.5° analysis and forecasts for initial/boundary conditions. To examine the impact of initial conditions on the forecasts, eleven real-time numerical experiments are conducted with model integration starting at 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC 4 Nov, 5?Nov and 00, 06, 12 UTC 6 Nov and all ending at 00 UTC 8 Nov. Results indicated that experiments starting prior to 18 UTC 04 Nov produced faster moving cyclones with higher intensity relative to the IMD estimates. The experiments with initial time at 18 UTC 04 Nov, 00 UTC 05 Nov and with integration length of 78?h and 72?h produced best prediction comparable with IMD estimates of the cyclone track and intensity parameters. To study the impact of observational assimilation on the model predictions FDDA, grid nudging is performed separately using (1) land-based automated weather stations (FDDAAWS), (2) MODIS temperature and humidity profiles (FDDAMODIS), and (3) ASCAT and OCEANSAT wind vectors (FDDAASCAT). These experiments reduced the pre-deepening period of the storm by 12?h and produced an early intensification. While the assimilation of AWS data has shown meagre impact on intensity, the assimilation of scatterometer winds produced an intermittent drop in intensity in the peak stage. The experiments FDDAMODIS and FDDAQSCAT produced minimum error in track and intensity estimates for a 90-h prediction of the storm.     

Application of the TEX86 temperature proxy to the southern North Sea

A novel temperature proxy, the tetraether index of lipids with 86 carbon atoms (TEX₈₆), was applied to the suspended particulate organic matter (POM) and sediment core tops from eight sites in the southern North Sea in different seasons. The TEX₈₆-derived temperatures in many samples did not correlate with mean annual sea surface temperature (SST), but were shifted toward winter SST, apparently because Crenarchaeota are more abundant and metabolically active during periods of low primary production. This indicates that TEX₈₆-derived SST estimates do not necessarily reflect annual mean SST and may provide essential information about seasonal SST palaeoreconstruction. High TEX₈₆-derived SSTs were measured in the water of the river Rhine and in the sediment core tops and seawater from several stations in the southern North Sea. These sites were all characterised by important input of organic matter from soil and peat, as revealed by the relatively high values obtained with the new terrestrial proxy, the branched and isoprenoid tetraether (BIT) index. These data demonstrate that to reconstruct palaeotemperatures it is essential to estimate both TEX₈₆ and BIT indices to check that TEX₈₆ temperatures are not biased as a result of large terrestrial input. Important seasonal variations in TEX₈₆-derived SST were also evident for the surface sediments of several stations characterised by extremely low sedimentation rates, indicating temporary settlement of laterally transported organic matter with a warmer temperature signal. This implies that sediment core top correlations between TEX₈₆ and mean annual SST should not be carried out in areas characterised by transient sediment deposition.     

Performance evaluation of HWRF model during post monsoon tropical cyclone Nilofar

An accurate tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast is very important for disaster management. Specialized numerical prediction models have been recently used to provide high-resolution temporal and special forecasts. Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model is one of the emerging numerical models for tropical cyclone forecasting. This study evaluates the performance of HWRF model during the post monsoon tropical cyclone Nilofar on the north Indian Ocean basin. The evaluation uses the best track data provided by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC). Cyclone track, central pressure, and wind speed are covered on this evaluation. Generally, HWRF was able to predict the Nilofar track with track error less than 230 km within the first 66 h of forecast time span. HWRF predicted more intense tropical cyclone. It predicted the lowest central pressure to be 922 hPa while it reached 950 hPa according to IMD and 937 hPa according to JTWC. Wind forecast was better as it predicted maximum wind speed of 122 kt while it reached 110 and 115 kt according to IMD and JTWC, respectively.     

An HWRF-based ensemble assessment of the land surface feedback on the post-landfall intensification of Tropical Storm Fay (2008)

While tropical cyclones (TCs) usually decay after landfall, Tropical Storm Fay (2008) initially developed a storm central eye over South Florida by anomalous intensification overland. Unique to the Florida peninsula are Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades, which may have provided a surface feedback as the TC tracked near these features around the time of peak intensity. Analysis is done with the use of an ensemble model-based approach with the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) version of the Hurricane WRF (HWRF) model using an outer domain and a storm-centered moving nest with 27- and 9-km grid spacing, respectively. Choice of land surface parameterization and small-scale surface features may influence TC structure, dictate the rate of TC decay, and even the anomalous intensification after landfall in model experiments. Results indicate that the HWRF model track and intensity forecasts are sensitive to three features in the model framework: land surface parameterization, initial boundary conditions, and the choice of planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. Land surface parameterizations such as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Slab and Noah land surface models (LSMs) dominate the changes in storm track, while initial conditions and PBL schemes cause the largest changes in the TC intensity overland. Land surface heterogeneity in Florida from removing surface features in model simulations shows a small role in the forecast intensity change with no substantial alterations to TC track.     

A High-Resolution Sea-Surface Temperature Record from the Tropical South China Sea (16,500–3000 yr B.P.)

The timing and magnitude of sea-surface temperature (SST) changes in the tropical southern South China Sea (SCS) during the last 16,500 years have been reconstructed on a high-resolution, ¹⁴C-dated sediment core using three different foraminiferal transfer functions (SIMMAX28, RAM, FP-12E) and geochemical (U^k′₃₇) SST estimates. In agreement with CLIMAP reconstructions, both the FP-12E and the U^k′₃₇ SST estimates show an average late glacial–interglacial SST difference of 2.0°C, whereas the RAM and SIMMAX28 foraminiferal transfer functions show only a minor (0.6°C) or no consistent late glacial–interglacial SST change, respectively. Both the U^k′₃₇ and the FP-12E SST estimates, as well as the planktonic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O values, indicate an abrupt warming (ca. 1°C in <200 yr) at the end of the last glaciation, synchronous (within dating uncertainties) with the Bølling transition as recorded in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) ice core, whereas the RAM-derived deglacial SST increase appears to lag during this event by ca. 500 yr. The similarity in abruptness and timing of the warming associated with the Bølling transition in Greenland and the southern SCS suggest a true synchrony of the Northern Hemisphere warming at the end of the last glaciation. In contrast to the foraminiferal transfer function estimates that do not indicate any consistent cooling associated with the Younger Dryas (YD) climate event in the tropical SCS, the U^k′₃₇ SST estimates show a cooling of ca. 0.2–0.6°C compared to the Bølling–Allerød period. These U^k′₃₇ SST estimates from the southern SCS argue in favor of a Northern Hemisphere-wide, synchronous cooling during the YD period.     

Estimating impacts of recurring flooding on roadway networks: a Norfolk,Virginia case study

Predicting tropical cyclone (TCs) tracks is a primary concern in TC forecasting. Some TCs appear to move in a direction favorable for their development, beyond the influence of the steering flow. Thus, we hypothesize that TCs move toward regions with high water-vapor content in the lower atmosphere. In this study, four numerical experiments, including a control experiment and three sensitivity experiments, were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, to analyze the relationship between water vapor distribution and the track of Severe Typhoon Hato (2017). Observations validated the features reproduced in the control experiment. The sensitivity experiments were conducted to explore variations in the TC track under different water vapor environments. Results indicate that the horizontal distribution of water-vapor content exerted a greater impact on the TC track than the steering flow when both factors were significant. Further analysis revealed that the TC’s movement vector was between the direction of the steering flow and the direction toward the peak of vorticity increasing area. The peaks of vorticity increasing area were close to the peaks of water vapor increasing area, which also proved the effect of water vapor distribution on the TC track. These results are expected to improve TC track analysis and forecasting.

     

Numerical simulation of cyclonic storms FANOOS, NARGIS with assimilation of conventional and satellite observations using 3-DVAR

In this work, the impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite data is studied on the prediction of two cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-VAR) technique. The FANOOS cyclone (December 6?C10, 2005) and the very severe cyclone NARGIS (April 28?CMay 2, 2008) were simulated with a double-nested weather research and forecasting (WRF-ARW) model at a horizontal resolution of 9?km. Three numerical experiments were performed using the WRF model. The back ground error covariance matrix for 3DVAR over the Indian region was generated by running the model for a 30-day period in November 2007. In the control run (CTL), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system analysis at 0.5° resolution was used for the initial and boundary conditions. In the second experiment called the VARCON, the conventional surface and upper air observations were used for assimilation. In the third experiment (VARQSCAT), the ocean surface wind vectors from quick scatterometer (QSCAT) were used for assimilation. The CTL and VARCON experiments have produced higher intensity in terms of sea level pressure, winds and vorticity fields but with higher track errors. Assimilation of conventional observations has meager positive impact on the intensity and has led to negative impact on simulated storm tracks. The QSCAT vector winds have given positive impact on the simulations of intensity and track positions of the two storms, the impact is found to be relatively higher for the moderate intense cyclone FANOOS as compared to very severe cyclone NARGIS.