南海区域海气热通量的变化特征分析

应用由卫星SSM/I(Special Sensor Microwave/Imager)和AVHRR(Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer)遥感资料,使用先进的海气通量计算方法(TAGA COARE3.0),计算出南海1987年7月至2004年12月共200个月的海气界面的感热和潜热通量(0.25°×0.25°),其结果与实测结果比较发现,由卫星反演的海气热通量与实测结果非常一致.与GSSTF2的结果相比,其时空分布变化特征基本一致.由此说明,利用卫星遥感获得的热通量可以用来进行中国近海海气相互作用的研究以及作为我国气候预测研究的重要依据.由多年南海海气热通量的分析表明,南海区域热通量的变化具有显著的年变化和年际变化特征,其周期分别是0.5a、1a、准3a和6～11a.其中准3a和6～11a周期与中国旱涝的周期一致.因此,可以认为南海区域热通量的年际变化对中国的旱涝分布将起着不可低估的作用.     

过去21 ka中国干湿变化的瞬变模拟分析

地表干湿变化是气候研究的热点问题。本研究利用一个古气候瞬变模拟试验的数据,采用降水与潜在蒸散量（PET）之比所定义的干湿指数（AI）,研究了过去21 ka中国地表干湿状况演变特征。就中国区域平均而言,气候在10 ka B.P.以前总体偏湿,之后则逐渐变干。决定干湿变化的外强迫因子随时间而变。22~19 ka B.P.,AI受低温室气体浓度和大陆冰盖影响,比目前高22%;19~10 ka B.P.,AI随温室气体浓度增加和大陆冰盖融化而逐渐降低,同时随着北半球高纬夏季日照量增大而升高,总体上维持在末次冰盛期的水平;10 ka B.P.之后,AI受控于轨道强迫,逐步降低至目前水平。在过去21 ka,AI变化总体上由PET主导：温室气体浓度、轨道参数分别通过影响近地面气温和相对湿度来改变PET大小;而在冰盖强迫下,PET变化源自气温和相对湿度的联合作用。与轨道尺度变化不同,气候在千年尺度冷事件期间总体偏干,变化主因是降水减少。空间上,AI变化有明显地域差异,不同地区AI变化的主导因子、对相同外强迫的响应形式各不相同。

     

中国水汽输送年际和年代际变化研究进展

大气中的水汽输送对于全球的水分循环、气候系统、生态环境等具有重要意义。水汽输送是影响中国旱涝空间分布的重要因素，其年际和年代际变化与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动、海温、北大西洋涛动、太平洋年代际涛动等因素对东亚大气环流的调控作用有关。本文就近期关于中国地区水汽输送年际和年代际变化的部分研究工作进行了回顾和评述，包括影响中国东部降水年际和年代际变化的水汽输送机制、影响梅雨特征年代际变化的水汽输送机制、热带海温对中国上空水汽输送的影响机制等问题。此外，本文回顾了近期与青藏高原地区水汽输送机制有关的研究进展。     

中国水汽输送年际和年代际变化研究进展

大气中的水汽输送对于全球的水分循环、气候系统、生态环境等具有重要意义。水汽输送是影响中国旱涝空间分布的重要因素，其年际和年代际变化与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动、海温、北大西洋涛动、太平洋年代际涛动等因素对东亚大气环流的调控作用有关。本文就近期关于中国地区水汽输送年际和年代际变化的部分研究工作进行了回顾和评述，包括影响中国东部降水年际和年代际变化的水汽输送机制、影响梅雨特征年代际变化的水汽输送机制、热带海温对中国上空水汽输送的影响机制等问题。此外，本文回顾了近期与青藏高原地区水汽输送机制有关的研究进展。     

中国洞穴步甲研究三十年概述

中国洞穴步甲分类研究起步较晚,最早记录的洞穴步甲是于1991年发现并被描述的奇华盲步甲（Sinaphaenops mirabilissimus Uéno & Wang, 1991）。经过国内外步甲分类学者三十年的不断努力,已记录中国洞穴步甲8族71属202种,其中以行步甲族最为丰富,共61属172种。目前,在属级水平上,中国已成为世界上洞穴步甲物种多样性最为丰富的国家。     

过去2000年中国的气候变化、财政周期与朝代更迭

从时间维的角度考察气候变化与人类社会之间的长期关系仍有待更多的量化实证研究。基于所重建的多条量化指标序列,文章分析了220 BC~1910 A.D.中国气候变化、财政平衡及朝代更迭之间的时间关系统计特征。结果发现,过去2000年中国财政平衡波动存在40~320 a的多个主导周期,其中80~100 a周期最为显著,财政周期在社会动荡、朝代更迭频繁时期趋于缩短,和平时期延长,并在1000~1200 A.D.前后开始有随时间变长趋势。财政平衡与温度变化在250~280 a的共振周期上呈较一致的正相关关系,与降水变化在60~80 a、80~100 a和160 a这3个共振周期存在显著正相关。在10~30 a尺度上,温度和降水变化对财政平衡波动具有协同效应,在30 a尺度上同时考虑温度、降水和财政平衡1阶滞后项为预测变量时,回归模型对财政波动的解释力最高可达27.4%,但受气候序列空间范围和分析时段的影响;降水比温度更适于解释中国历史财政旋回的波动。尽管在百年尺度上,气候冷暖期与王朝历时的长短及并存政权数量的多少没有十分一致的时间对应关系,但在年代到多年代尺度上,70%以上的王朝更迭期和并存政权数量增加期对应冷阶段或偏干阶段及财政匮乏期。

     

近50a 西北干旱区气候变化趋势研究

西北干旱区位于欧亚大陆腹地,包括新疆全境、甘肃河西走廊、青海柴达木盆地及内蒙古贺兰山以西的地区,地理位置介于东经73°~106°和北纬35°~50°之间,总土地面积约占全国国土面积的24.5%。气候干燥少雨,荒漠广布,植被稀疏,属于典型的干旱生态脆弱区。近期施雅风等提出西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型[1,2],但近50 a西北干旱区气候演变规律如何,极端气候事件与水旱灾害如何变化,区域气候有何差异等问题一直尚未得到解决。本文针对这些问题,利用1951~2000年的阿勒泰、敦煌、哈密、酒泉、喀什、库车、且末、若羌、塔城、吐鲁番、乌鲁木齐、民勤、乌…     

东北黑土区近半世纪土地利用变化时空特征分析

东北黑土区作为世界四大黑土区之一,分布着肥沃、珍稀的黑土资源,它的保护和利用历来备受关注。土地利用/覆盖变化影响生态系统的结构、功能和健康,对实现土地资源的可持续利用具有重要意义。本文选取1970年、1995年、2010年和2020年四期土地利用/覆盖数据,应用土地利用转移矩阵、综合动态度、空间变化模型等方法分析东北黑土区近半世纪以来的土地利用变化时空特征,发现:①近半世纪以来东北黑土区建设用地、耕地及草地面积总体增加,湿地、林地及未利用地面积总体降低,地类变化主要集中于三江平原、松嫩平原西北部及西辽河平原地区;②各地类变化均以交变量占主导优势,存在大量空间位置转移;③土地利用程度呈逐年小幅增长的趋势,但仍低于全国水平,土地开发利用的潜力巨大。未来,应进一步研究东北黑土区土地利用变化时空特征、机制及其对生态环境、生态服务功能、碳收支平衡的影响,优化国土空间布局,实现“把黑土地用好养好”。     

中亚地区过去2000年气候变化研究的数据挖掘

中亚地区是古丝绸之路的主要廊道,气候变率时空差异大,随着"一带一路"倡议的逐步推进,该地区过去2000年气候变化研究备受关注。文章参照世界数据中心古气候资料共享网收录文献的关键词,从Web of Science数据库检索该地区过去2000年气候变化研究文献;并结合中亚自然资源图集的政区、湖泊、山脉等地名信息,构建了面向该类文献的数据挖掘技术;据此提取了研究区（点）、时间、代用资料与研究结果等信息,分析了其间该地区冷暖与干湿变化研究的主要进展。主要结论有：1）中亚地区过去2000年气候变化的已有研究重点为局地温度、降水/干湿变化重建与冷暖、干湿、湖泊水位等的阶段性差异分析,其中尤以干湿相关研究居多;所用代用资料主要有树轮（占44.2%）、湖泊沉积物（占41.9%）、冰芯（占9.3%）等,其中湖泊沉积物、冰芯、石笋可覆盖整个2000年,而最长的树轮仅覆盖过去1100年,且多数集中在1700年之后;研究区集中分布于西天山及帕米尔高原、巴尔喀什湖、咸海及周边地区;研究时段虽覆盖整个2000年,但高分辨率重建工作主要集中于16世纪之后。2）中亚地区公元1~3世纪末、15世纪中期~19世纪中期气候相对寒冷,5世纪中期~9世纪末、12世纪中期~14世纪末和19世纪中期以后气候总体温暖,但在1230年前后和1680年前后也分别出现过显著转冷和回暖;20世纪后期的温暖程度可能与其前千年的最暖时段相当。西天山、帕米尔和咸海三地干湿的百年尺度阶段变化并不同步;其中在百年以上尺度,咸海及周边地区公元1~5世纪、10~12世纪中期相对偏干,5世纪~9世纪、12世纪后期~15世纪中期相对偏湿,此后缓慢转干持续至今;而在年代际尺度上,西天山和帕米尔山地降水自1980年起曾显著增加,但至2000年以后又显著转干。     

Influences of climate change and human activities on Tarim River runoffs in China over the past half century

The changes in annual runoff of the three original rivers and the mainstream of Tarim River were analyzed by the non-parametric tests based on the hydrologic data during the period of 50 years. Using hydrologic data, meteorological data and the fitted equation, the impacts of climate change and human activities on annual runoff of the mainstream were assessed. Based on the analysis, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) headstream runoff has increased in the past 50 years, and has sharply jumped after 1990; (2) mainstream runoff decreased progressively in the past 50 years, which indicated that interference from human activities was the main cause for the decreasing runoff. This had greater negative influence than positive influence, which caused the mainstream average runoff to decrease by 5.4 × 10⁸ m³ from 1990 to 2008 as compared to 1957–2008; (3) if human activities remained at pre-1990 levels, climate change alone would have caused the runoff of mainstream of Tarim River to increase by 5.4 × 10⁸ m³ annually in the past 20 years; (4) if the climate had remained at pre-1990 conditions, human activities alone would have caused the runoff of mainstream of Tarim River to increase by 5.4 × 10⁸ m³ annually over the past 20 years. However, mainstream average runoff was 42.6 × 10⁸ m³ from 1990 to 2008 with the negative effects of human activities masked by the larger, positive effect of climate changes. The results in this paper provide a scientific basis for conservation strategies, sustainable management, and ecological restoration of the Tarim River Basin.     

Exploring the characteristics of major natural disasters in China and their impacts during the past decades

The exploration of the characteristics of natural disasters (NDs) and their impacts have important implications for guiding disaster prevention and mitigation. This paper discussed the characteristics of the major NDs that occurred in mainland China between 1980 and 2011 based on the number of disasters and fatalities, the affected population, and the resulting economic damages. We further examined the relationships between the level of social/economic development and the disaster losses. At last, we also explored the trend variations in disaster losses and losses expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (losses/GDP) for 31 provinces in China over the period from 1990 to 2011. The results show that over the past three decades, the number of major NDs and the number of affected population appear to exhibit a detectable increasing trend, while the direct economic losses and the deaths show a slight increase trend. The correlations between the number of disasters and the economic losses as well as deaths and between the economic losses and socioeconomic status were not significant (p > 0.05), which indicates that the growth in the number of disasters do not result in a significant increase in the disaster losses. Further investigations demonstrate that as economies develop, there are fewer losses/GDP in China over the past two decades. The per capita accumulative losses and losses/GDP in the western and central regions were higher than that in the eastern parts of China. There are significant regional differences in the trends in disaster losses and losses/GDP in China. Statistics also indicate that more than 70 % provinces in underdeveloped regions show an increasing trend in disaster losses, whereas exceeding 90 % provinces exhibit a decreasing trend in their losses/GDP. These results suggest that the economic development may have played an important role in improving the capacity of disaster prevention and reduction.     

青藏高原东部春季感热通量与我国东部气温的年际关系

利用ERA-Interim提供的地表感热、环流场资料和1979-2013年753站中国春季气温观测资料探讨了青藏高原（以下简称高原）东部春季感热通量与我国东部气温的关系。春季高原东部感热与我国东部气温在年际变化上存在密切的相关关系。去除9年滑动平均以后的SVD第一模态结果表明,当高原东部感热出现南弱（强）北强（弱）时,对应我国东北和华南地区的气温异常偏低（高）。当春季高原感热呈现南负北正的分布时,高层200 hPa上,高纬东风异常减弱背景西风有利于冷空气的南下,加之副热带西风急流显著增强,有利于东北地区形成气旋性环流。中低层环流场上,我国北方地区上空为一深厚的东北冷涡所控制,从对流层低层到高层,均呈现较强的气旋式环流分布。一方面,它引导西伯利亚冷空气南下,造成我国东北地区气压异常减弱,气温异常偏低;另一方面,其西侧北风异常阻滞了华南地区上空的背景西南风,不利于暖气流的输送。进一步分析得出,与PC1相关的南北温度差值场上,东亚地区上空从低纬到高纬呈现“负-正-负”的分布形势,有利于副热带西风急流在我国上空的显著增强。气旋中心上暖下冷的结构,导致位涡显著发展并向低层伸展、侵入,增强了对流层中低层的气旋性环流。气旋中心整个对流层为深厚的异常干空气,湿度负值中心与冷中心相对应,表明干冷空气异常下传发展。干侵入使得冷涡加强发展,维持了异常气旋性环流,导致春季东北、华南地区的异常降温。虽然前冬Nino3.4区海温与春季感热相关较好,但其对我国东部春季气温影响并不显著。     

石笋P/Ca重建宜昌地区9 000年以来的陆地生产力

陆地生产力在全球变化,尤其是全球碳循环研究领域中,具有重要的地位。本文通过分析湖北清江和尚洞HS4石笋中P和Ca的地球化学组成,考察P/Ca对陆地生物生产力的响应。结果发现,最近50年沉积的石笋P/Ca比值与Thornthwaite Memorial生产力模型计算的区域陆地生产力具有显著的相关性,可以作为陆地古生产力的指标。以石笋P/Ca 重建的宜昌地区陆地古生产力在过去9 000年呈现波动变化的特征:8.9～6.5ka BP,陆地生产力较低;6.5～5.0ka BP,陆地生产力显著升高,并在6.4～5.6ka BP期间达到9.0ka来的最高值;5.0～4.0ka BP,处于低生产力期;4.0～1.5ka BP,生产力逐渐回升;1.5ka BP以来,生产力再次处于低值期。陆地生产力的波动明显受到全球和区域气候的制约。      

Stable isotope records of plant cover change and monsoon variation in the past 2200 years: evidence from laminated stalagmites in Beijing, China

Two stalagmites collected from the Shihua cave in the southwestern suburb of Beijing were dated by annual layer counting. The results are consistent with thermal ionization mass spectrometry 230 Th dating. Stable carbon isotope variation of stalagmites is dominated by plant cover change, which largely reflects climate change and monsoon variation. Oxygen isotopes are mainly affected by precipitation, which is related to summer and winter monsoon intensity. The combination of carbon and oxygen isotopes can therefore be a proxy of plant cover change and monsoon variation. Our stable isotope results show that lower carbon isotope values of the stalagmites between 200 BC and AD 1000 probably imply dense plant cover and an episode dominated by humid summer monsoon. From ~1000 to AD 1450, the dominant monsoon alternated between the winter monsoon and the summer monsoon. Since ~AD 1450, a significant jump in carbon isotope ratios and increasing oxygen isotope ratios has been demonstrated, indicating less plant cover and the probable dominance of dry winter monsoon. The results are consistent with historical documents of the region.     

成都经济区农业生态系统土壤镉通量研究

以四川成都经济区农业生态系统中的重金属Cd为对象,对其在土壤中的输入输出通量进行初步探索。综合各方面的因素,确定以大气干湿沉降、灌溉水、化肥为输入途径和农作物为输出途径进行研究。经过计算,经济区大气干湿沉降通量平均值为17.76g/hm2·a,灌溉水和化肥通量明显较低,三者对土壤Cd污染的贡献率分别为86%、10%和4%。对于6个不同的地区,三者比例略有差别,大气干湿沉降所占比例最高达94%,最低也达到了77%。Cd通过农作物收割输出的量相对较小。土壤Cd年净增量主要受大气干湿沉降的制约,因此大气环境质量应是重点监控的对象。以耕作土体为研究介质,经估算,当前的Cd年平均通量可引起土壤Cd的质量分数升高0.006mg/kg。     

Sensible and latent heat flux response to diurnal variation in soil surface temperature and moisture under different freeze/thaw soil conditions in the seasonal frozen soil region of the central Tibetan Plateau

The relationship between sensible and latent heat flux and diurnal variation in soil surface temperature and moisture under four freeze/thaw soil conditions was investigated using observed soil temperature and moisture and simulated sensible and latent heat flux. The diurnal range of latent heat flux had a similar temporal change pattern as that of unfrozen soil water at depths of 0–3 cm during the freezing stage. Also, there was a better relationship with the diurnal range of unfrozen soil water at depths of 3–6 cm during the thawing stage. Diurnal variation in latent heat flux was significant and depended mostly on solar radiation during the completely thawed stage. However, while diurnal variation in solar radiation during the completely frozen stage was significant, for latent heat flux it was quite weak due to low unfrozen soil water content. Thus, diurnal variation in latent heat flux depended mostly on unfrozen soil water content during this stage. During the freezing and thawing stages, diurnal variation in latent heat flux was also significant and depended mostly on diurnal variation in unfrozen soil water content. However, the impacts of air temperature change from solar radiation on latent heat flux could not be ignored.     

Flamingos,salt lakes and volcanoes: hunting for evidence of past climate change on the high Altiplano of Bolivia

Hidden within the vast Bolivian Altiplano are archives of past climate change in the form of remarkable carbonate rocks surrounding lakes long since disappeared. Beyond the Salar de Uyuni, the largest salt flat in the world, lies a relatively untouched realm of volcanoes and salt lakes. Ancient shorelines from intervals in the Altiplano history, when large lakes were more abundant, may hold important information about a time when the climate in this region was punctuated by much wetter phases before present day aridity took a hold. Previous studies in this region have reconstructed robust chronological timelines for such events and highlight two large lake phases over the last 18 thousand years (the Tauca and Coipasa lake phases); however higher resolution climate data are scarce. Current studies on climate proxies from smaller lakes in southern Bolivia may shed light on some of these higher resolution climate events including El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Laminated tufa found around the palaeoshorelines of the West Lípez Lakes is one such proxy, and can be analysed to investigate the potential roles of annual versus shorter‐term climatic variation in the evolving Altiplano climate at the time.