Assessing climate change impacts on river hydrology – A case study in the Western Ghats of India

The objective of this study is to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change on rainfall, temperature and streamflow in a west flowing river originating in the Western Ghats of India. The long-term trend analysis for 110 yr of meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) was carried out using the modified Mann–Kendall trend test and the magnitude of the trend was quantified using the Sen’s slope estimator. The Regional Climate Model (RCM), COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) simulated daily weather data of baseline (1951–2005) and future RCP 4.5 scenarios (2006–2060) were used to run the hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), in order to evaluate the effect of climate change on rainfall, temperature and streamflow. Significant changes were observed with regard to rainfall, which have shown decreasing trend at the rate of 2.63 mm per year for the historical and 8.85 mm per year for RCP 4.5 future scenarios. The average temperature was found to be increasing at \(0.10\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}\) per decade for both historical and future scenarios. The impact of climate change on the annual streamflow yielded a decreasing trend at the rate of \(1.2\,\hbox {Mm}^{3}\) per year and 2.56 \(\hbox {Mm}^{3},\) respectively for the past and future scenarios. The present work also investigates the capability of SWAT to simulate the groundwater flow. The simulated results are compared with the recession limb of the hydrograph and were found to be reasonably accurate.     

Morphometrical analysis of two tropical mountain river basins of contrasting environmental settings, the southern Western Ghats, India

The morphometric analysis of river basins represents a simple procedure to describe hydrologic and geomorphic processes operating on a basin scale. A morphometric analysis was carried out to evaluate the drainage characteristics of two adjoining, mountain river basins of the southern Western Ghats, India, Muthirapuzha River Basin (MRB) in the western slopes and Pambar River Basin (PRB) in the eastern slopes. The basins, forming a part of the Proterozoic, high-grade, Southern Granulite Terrain of the Peninsular India, are carved out of a terrain dominantly made of granite- and hornblende-biotite gneisses. The Western Ghats, forming the basin divide, significantly influences the regional climate (i.e., humid climate in MRB, while semi-arid in PRB). The Survey of India topographic maps (1:50,000) and Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission digital elevation data were used as the base for delineation and analysis. Both river basins are of 6th order and comparable in basin geometry. The drainage patterns and linear alignment of the drainage networks suggest the influence of structural elements. The Rb of either basins failed to highlight the structural controls on drainage organization, which might be a result of the elongated basin shape. The irregular trends in Rb between various stream orders suggest the influence of geology and relief on drainage branching. The Dd values designate the basins as moderate- to well-drained with lower infiltration rates. The overall increasing trend of Rl between successive stream orders suggests a geomorphic maturity of either basins and confirmed by the characteristic I _hyp values. The Re values imply an elongate shape for both MRB and PRB and subsequently lower vulnerability to flash floods and hence, easier flood management. The relatively higher Rr of PRB is an indicative of comparatively steeply sloping terrain and consequently higher intensity of erosion processes. Further, the derivatives of digital elevation data (slope, aspect, topographic wetness index, and stream power index), showing significant differences between MRB and PRB, are useful in soil conservation plans. The study highlighted the variation in morphometric parameters with respect to the dissimilarities in topography and climate.     

Development of Earthquake Event Detection Technique Based on STA/LTA Algorithm for Seismic Alert System

The drainage basin of the Kalyani river, a tributary of Gomati river has been mapped and delineated using Survey of India toposheets (1:50,000 scale) and remote sensing satellite data. The digitization, slope map preparation and statistical calculations have been carried out with the help of geographical information system (Arc GIS 10). Kalyani a fifth order river exhibits meandering behavior having 2.45 sinuosity index (SI). The Kalyani river basin has about 1235 km²area with NW-SE sloping trend. The total number of first, second, third, and fourth order streams are 373, 71, 12 and 2 respectively, showing dominance of first order streams in the basin. The mean bifurcation ratio (Rb) of the entire basin is 4.8, which indicates that the drainage is not much influenced by geological structures and exhibits dendritic drainage pattern. Relief ratio (Rr) indicates low to medium surface run-off, and low stream power for erosion. The analysis of river bank height ‘r’ (escarpment) and longitudinal profile of the river closely reveals neotectonic activity at some locations in the basin. To prepare a comprehensive watershed development and management plan, it is important to understand the topography and drainage characteristics of the region.     

Impact of Rainfall Variability on River Hydrology: A Case Study of Southern Western Ghats,India

The Western Ghats plays a pivotal role in determining the hydrological and hydroclimatic regime of Peninsular India. The mountainous catchments of the Ghats are the primary contributors of flow in the rivers that sustains the life and agricultural productivity in the area. Although many studies have been conducted in the past decades to understand long term trends in the meteorological and hydrological variables of major river basins, not much attention have been made to unfold the relationship existing among rainfall and river hydrology of natural drainages on either side of the Western Ghats which host one of the unique biodiversity hotspots across the world. Therefore, an attempt has been made in this paper to examine the short term (last three decades) changes in the rainfall pattern and its influence on the hydrological characteristics of some of the important rivers draining the southern Western Ghats as a case study. The short term, annual and seasonal trends in the rainfall, and its variability and discharge were analyzed using Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s estimator of slope. The study showed a decreasing trend in rainfall in the southwest monsoon while a reverse trend is noticed in northeast monsoon. Correspondingly, the discharge of the west and east flowing rivers also showed a declining trend in the southwest monsoon season. The runoff coefficient also followed the trends in the discharge. The runoff coefficient of the Periyar river showed a decreasing trend, whereas the Cauvery river exhibited an increasing trend. A high-resolution analysis of rainfall data revealed that the number of moderate rainfall events showed a decreasing trend throughout the southern Western Ghats, whereas the high intensity rainfall events showed an opposite trend. The decline in groundwater level in the areas which recorded an increase in high intensity rainfall events and decrease in moderate rainfall events showed that the groundwater recharge process is significantly affected by changes in the rainfall pattern of the area.     

新疆阿尔泰山区克兰河上游水文过程对气候变暖的响应

额尔齐斯河支流克兰河上游发源于西风带水汽影响的阿尔泰山南坡,主要由融雪径流补给,年内积雪融水可占年径流量的45%.年最大月径流一般出现在6月份,融雪季节4~6月径流量占65%.流域自20世纪60年代开始明显升温,年平均温度从50年代的1.4℃上升到90年代的5.2℃;年降水总量也呈增加趋势,尤其是冬季和初春增加最多.随着气候变暖,河流年内水文过程发生了很大的变化,主要表现在最大月径流由6月提前到5月,月径流总量增加约15%,4~6月融雪径流量也由占年流量的60%增加到近70%.在多年变化趋势上,气温上升主要发生在冬季,降水也以冬季增加明显,而夏季降水呈下降趋势;水文过程主要表现在5月径流呈增加趋势,而6月径流为下降趋势;夏季径流减少而春季径流增加明显.冬春季积雪增加和气温上升,导致融雪洪水增多且洪峰流量增大,使洪水灾害破坏性加大.近些年来气候变暖引起的年内水文过程变化,已经对河流下游的城市供水和农牧业生产产生了影响.     

基于GMS的岩溶山区三维地下水流模式识别

以高岚河东部多条支沟切割形成的连排型河间地块为研究区,基于1∶5万岩溶水文地质调查成果,利用GIS技术和径流分割,量化岩溶含水系统顶底板高程、获取入渗补给系数及地下水径流量等数据,运用三维地下水流数值模拟及粒子追踪地下水流线的方法,得出了研究区的地下水流模式。其结果表明:研究区地下水流模式主要受区域尺度的势源和势汇控制,局部的地形起伏对地下水位的影响不明显;支沟切割较深的凉伞沟、滩淤河流域,水流驱动力大,有利于局部水流系统的发育;随着东部补给高程的增加,流程逐渐增长,多发育局部水流系统,至山脊附近多发育排泄至高岚河的中间水流系统。当研究区年降雨量由中等的1 021.1 mm降为多年最低的725.5 mm时,由东部补给区排泄至高岚河的中间水流系统增加;在此降雨强度区间,不具备发育越过河间地块的中间或区域地下水流系统。      

Similarity of palaeocurrent pattern of Lower Gondwana formations of the Talchir and the Ong-river basins of Orissa,India – An indication of dismemberment of a major Gondwana basin

In peninsular India, Gondwana strata are disposed linearly as strings of isolated basins conforming to the trend of the present day Koel–Damodar, Son–Mahanadi and Prahnita–Godavari river valleys. There are seven exposed and one concealed Gondwana basins/outliers in Orissa belonging to the Son–Mahanadi valley system. The present study is concerned with the consanguinity of the Talchir and Ong-river basins of Orissa. Similarity and dissimilarity of palaeocurrent population in these two basins were taken into consideration to test the consanguinity of the basins under consideration. Statistical analysis suggests that the sampled palaeocurrent data of the same formation belong to the same population when considered for both basins. In geologic terms, the basin parameters were identical when considered for either the Talchir or the Karharbari Formation that proves the consanguinity of both the basins and the possible existence of a master basin that encompassed other sister Gondwana basins in Orissa.     

无资料地区小流域设计径流若干技术问题

从研究小流域水文特性及其影响因素入手,提出了在同一气候区内,应用小流域高度分布曲线与年降雨是随高度呈线性变化关系,来确定小流域面平均年降雨量,并应用年降雨径流关系分解小流域不闭合的河床地下水潜流量,以提高无资料地区小流域设计径流的技术水平。     

Lateglacial,early and middle holocene environments,human occupation,and resource use in the Atacama (Northern Chile)

Paleoenvironmental data from the Atacama Altiplano (21°–24°S) indicate that water, vegetation and animal resources were more abundant during lateglacial and early Holocene times than today. The rate of precipitation increased above 4000 m elevation to 400–500 mm/yr compared to the present 200 mm/yr. Dry conditions prevailed below 3500 m. Evidence of Paleoindian habitation is still missing, even though there is no evidence for environmental prohibitors during lateglacial time. The early Archaic hunters (10,820 yr B.P.-ca. 8500 yr B.P.) inhabited the Altiplano (high Puna) and its western slope, where water was available due to higher river runoff from the Altiplano, and the resources in different elevation zones were accessible. Natural resources decreased significantly during the middle Archaic period (8500-ca. 5000 yr B.P.). Lakes receded to today's levels, pedogenesis in the Altiplano terminated, and human activities were restricted to the most stable sites in the Río Lao and the Río Purifica catchments north of 23°S. The less stable oases south of 23°S (Salar de Atacama and Punta Negra) were abandoned. The climatic changes are best explained by shifts of the (sub)tropical circulation. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Spatial variability of aridity oyer northern India

Spatial variability of aridity over northern India (north of 20°N) is studied by examining variations in the arid area. Area with an objectively determined summer monsoon rainfall (June to September total) of less than 500 mm is identified as arid area. The summer monsoon rainfall of 212 rain-gauges from 212 districts of the region for the period 1871–1984 are used in the analysis. An interesting feature of the arid area series is that it shows decreasing trend from beginning of the present century. The summer monsoon rainfall fluctuations over five subjectively divided zones over northern India are examined to understand the association between rainfall and the arid area variations. The rainfall series for northwest India shows a significant increasing trend and that for northeast India a significant decreasing trend from the beginning of this century. Rainfall fluctuations over the remaining zones can be considered intermediate stages of a systematic spatial change in the rainfall pattern. This suggested that the recent decreasing trend in the arid area is due to a westward shift in the monsoon rainfall activities. From correlation analyses it is inferred that perhaps the recent decreasing trend in the arid area and increasing trend in the monsoon rainfall over northwest India are associated with a warming trend of the northern hemisphere.     

Rainfall-runoff modeling of ungauged Wadis in arid environments (case study Wadi Rabigh—Saudi Arabia)

Flash flood forecasting of catchment systems is one of the challenges especially in the arid ungauged basins. This study is attempted to estimate the relationship between rainfall and runoff and also to provide flash flood hazard warnings for ungauged basins based on the hydrological characteristics using geographic information system (GIS). Morphometric characteristics of drainage basins provide a means for describing the hydrological behavior of a basin. The study examined the morphometric parameters of Wadi Rabigh with emphasis on its implication for hydrologic processes through the integration analysis between morphometric parameters and GIS techniques. Data for this study were obtained from ASTER data for digital elevation model (DEM) with 30-m resolution, topographic map (1:50,000), and geological maps (1,250,000) which were subject to field confirmation. About 36 morphometric parameters were measured and calculated, and interlinked to produce nine effective parameters for the evaluation of the flash flood hazard degree of the study area. Based on nine effective morphometric parameters that directly influence on the hydrologic behavior of the Wadi through time of concentration, the flash flood hazard of the Rabigh basin and its subbasins was identified and classified into three groups (High, medium, and low hazard degree). The present work proved that the physiographic features of drainage basin contribute to the possibility of a flash flood hazard evaluation for any particular drainage area. The study provides details on the flash flood prone subbasins and the mitigation measures. This study also helps to plan rainwater harvesting and watershed management in the flash flood alert zones. Based on two historical data events of rainfall and the corresponding maximum flow rate, morphometric parameters and Stormwater Management and Design Aid software (SMADA 6), it could be to generate the hydrograph of Wadi Rabigh basin. As a result of the model applied to Wadi Rabigh basin, a rainfall event of a total of 22 mm with a duration of 5 h at the station nearby the study area, which has an exceedance probability of 50 % and return period around 2 years, produces a discharge volume of 15.2?×?10⁶ m³ at the delta, outlet of the basin, as 12.5 mm of the rainfall infiltrates (recharge).     

GPS-measurements of recent crustal deformation in the junction zone of the rift segments in the central Baikal rift system

Based on multiyear measurements of present-day motions in the central area of the Baikal rift system, new data on the kinematics of horizontal motions, relative horizontal deformation rates, and rotation velocities in the area of junction of the South Baikal, North Baikal, and Barguzin rift basins have been obtained. This area is an intricate structure with two transfer zones: Ol’khon–Svyatoi Nos and Ust’-Barguzin.It is shown that crustal blocks are moving southeastward, normally to the structures of transfer zones and at an acute angle to the Baikal Rift strike, which corresponds to the right-lateral strike-slip extensional faulting along the major structure. The average horizontal velocities increase from 3.0 mm yr–1 in the northern South Baikal basin to 6.5 mm yr–1 in the Barguzin basin. The elongation axes prevailing in the study region are mainly of NW–SE direction. The areas of intense deformations are confined to structures with high seismic activity in the South Baikal and, partly, Barguzin basins. This confirms the existence of a present-day zone of the Earth’s crust destruction in the Baikal rift system, which is the most likely source of strong earthquakes in the future. Two zones with rotations in opposite directions are recognized in the rotation velocity field. Clockwise rotation is typical of structures of N–NE strike (Maloe More basin, southern North Baikal basin, Barguzin Ridge rise). Counterclockwise rotation is determined for NE-striking structures (northern South Baikal basin, southern Barguzin basin). In general, the obtained data show an intricate pattern of present-day horizontal dislocations and deformations in the area of junction of NE- and N–NE-striking rift structures. This suggests left- and right-lateral strike-slip faults, respectively, within them.     

Estimates of holocene precipitation for Rajasthan,India, based on pollen and lake-level data

A pollen profile obtained from lake sediments at Lunkaransar, Rajasthan, in northwest India was used along with a pollen-climate calibration function to estimate past precipitation. Between 10,500 and 3500 yr B.P., the estimated precipitation was about 500 mm/yr, or about 200 mm/yr above the modern value. A model was used for the energy and hydrologic budget of a lake basin and lake at Sambhar (located 240 km SE of Lunkaransar) to calculate that a 200 mm/yr increase in rainfall above the modern amount would have raised the lake level about 20 m above the modern level. Topographic charts and satellite imagery provided some evidence in support of an enlarged paleolake of that elevation, but field exploration would be required to confirm the size and date of a former lake. After about 3500 yr B.P., the Lunkaransar profile indicated a desiccated lake bed; because no pollen was preserved, the pollen-climate calibration function was of no use for estimating the amount of the precipitation decline. A reduction of precipitation of about 200 mm/yr below the modern amount was estimated from the energy and hydrologic budget for paleolake Sambhar by assuming that the lake was one-tenth of its present size during the dry interval.     

近50年来黄河流域400 mm等雨量线空间变化研究

以黄河流域及周边地区1 026个雨量（水文）站1956—2000年逐日降水过程资料为基础，以GIS技术为关键数据处理平台，建立等值线加权平均位置的定量化表征方法，采用时间序列分析技术，对黄河流域近50年来400 mm等雨量线的空间位移特征进行了系统揭示。1956—2000年间，黄河流域多年平均降雨量为454.62 mm；400 mm等雨量线加权平均位置坐标为（105°0′4″E，36°57′54″N）。整体上看，近50年来，黄河流域400 mm等雨量在纬向上的移动是典型的平稳随机序列过程；在经向上的移动尚不能满足平稳随机序列过程。趋势检验结果表明，黄河流域400 mm等雨量线有向东和向南发生移动的趋势，且向东移动的趋势显著。功率谱分析表明，黄河流域400 mm等雨量线在经向上发生迁移的显著周期为3年；在经向和纬向上均有7年和2年周期；同时，位移具有反向持久性。     

中国大陆流域分区TRMM降水质量评价

根据中国境内2 257个气象站点1998-2013年逐日降水资料,结合流域分区,采用探测准确性、相关系数以及相对误差等指标,对热带降水测量（TRMM）降水精度和一致性进行系统评价。结果表明:① TRMM日降水准确性从东南沿海向西北内陆递减;② 气象站点年均降水日数显著大于TRMM年均降水日数;③ 西北片区以外气象站点降水量和TRMM降水量在月尺度和年尺度上均具有较好的相关关系;④ 各流域年均TRMM面降水量均高于气象站点面降水量,且TRMM面降水量相对误差雨季较小,枯季较大;⑤ 各流域TRMM面降水量与气象站点面降水量演变趋势基本一致,南方各流域年降水量均呈减少趋势,北方各流域年降水量均呈增加趋势,全国尺度上年降水量呈微弱的减少趋势。     

Trends in extreme rainfall over ecologically sensitive Western Ghats and coastal regions of Karnataka: an observational assessment

Rainfall is one of the pivotal climatic variables, which influence spatio-temporal patterns of water availability. In this study, we have attempted to understand the interannual long-term trend analysis of the daily rainfall events of ≥?2.5 mm and rainfall events of extreme threshold, over the Western Ghats and coastal region of Karnataka. High spatial resolution (0.25°?×?0.25°) daily gridded rainfall data set of Indian Meteorological Department was used for this study. Thirty-eight grid points in the study area was selected to analyze the daily precipitation for 113 years (1901–2013). Grid points were divided into two zones: low land (exposed to the sea and low elevated area/coastal region) and high land (interior from the sea and high elevated area/Western Ghats). The indices were selected from the list of climate change indices recommended by ETCCDI and are based on annual rainfall total (RR), yearly 1-day maximum rainfall, consecutive wet days (≥?2.5 mm), Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), annual frequency of very heavy rainfall (≥?100 mm), frequency of very heavy rainfall (≥?65–100 mm), moderate rainfall (≥?2.5–65 mm), frequency of medium rainfall (≥?40–65 mm), and frequency of low rainfall (≥?20–40 mm). Mann-Kendall test was applied to the nine rainfall indices, and Theil-Sen estimator perceived the nature and the magnitude of slope in rainfall indices. The results show contrasting trends in the extreme rainfall indices in low land and high land regions. The changes in daily rainfall events in the low land region primarily indicate statistically significant positive trends in the annual total rainfall, yearly 1-day maximum rainfall, SDII, frequency of very heavy rainfall, and heavy rainfall as well as medium rainfall events. Furthermore, the overall annual rainfall strongly correlated with all the rainfall indices in both regions, especially with indices that represent heavy rainfall events which is responsible for the total increase of rainfall.     

Morphometric Analysis and Hydrological Inference for Water Resource Management in Atrai-Sib River Basin,NW Bangladesh Using Remote Sensing and GIS Technique

Demand for irrigation water increases day by day along with meteorological vagaries and extension of irrigated area in the drought-prone Barind area of Bangladesh. This increasing stress on water resource is gradually making the area water scare. The study is aimed at studying the morphometric parameters of the Atrai-Sib river basin in the Barind area and on their relevance in water resource management based on satellite images and SRTM DEM. Computation and delineation of linear and areal aspects of the river basin and its morphometric components reveals that stream order ranges from first to eighth order showing dendritic drainage pattern. The basin represents homogeneity of soil texture; possibility of flash flood after heavy rainfall with low discharge of runoff; and is not largely affected by structural disturbance. Moderate drainage density of the river basin area indicates semipermeable soil lithology with moderate vegetation. Mean bifurcation ratio of the basin is calculated as 3.92 and elongation ratio 0.75, which indicate elongated shape of the river basin with low to moderate relief bounded in the east and west by ‘moderate to steep’ sloping land area. It reveals a flatter peak of runoff flow for longer duration and gravity flow of water. The gentle but undulating slope of the basin represents ‘excellent’ category for groundwater management as the site is favorable for infiltration due to maximum time of runoff water percolation. The east facing slopes of the basin show higher moisture content and higher vegetation than the west-facing slope. The land use pattern of the area shows that major part (95.29%) comes under the cultivated land which will support future river basin development and management. Results obtained from the study would be useful in categorization of river basins for future water resource development and management, and selection of suitable sites for water conservation structures such as check dam, percolation tank, artificial recharge of groundwater through MAR technique etc.     

Spatial and temporal variations in the occurrences of wet periods over major river basins in India

This study highlights the hydro-climatic features of the five wet periods contributing in different percentages to the annual rainfall total over major river basins in India. Spatial and temporal variations in the parameters such as starting date, duration and rainfall intensity of these wet periods throughout India have been discussed using daily gridded rainfall data for the period 1951–2007. An attempt is also made here, to assess the impact of global SSTs on the start and duration of the wet periods in Indian river basins.     

Analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall trends for Ranchi district,Jharkhand, India

The aim of this study was to investigate temporal variation in seasonal and annual rainfall trend over Ranchi district of Jharkhand, India for the period (1901–2014: 113 years). Mean monthly rainfall data series were used to determine the significance and magnitude of the trend using non-parametric Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator. The analysis showed a significant decreased in rainfall during annual, winter and southwest monsoon rainfall while increased in pre-monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall over the Ranchi district. A positive trend is detected in pre-monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall data series while annual, winter and southwest monsoon rainfall showed a negative trend. The maximum decrease in rainfall was found for monsoon (? 1.348 mm year^?1) and minimum (? 0.098 mm year^?1) during winter rainfall. The trend of post-monsoon rainfall was found upward (0.068 mm year^?1). The positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall were found statistically non-significant except monsoon rainfall at 5% level of significance. Rainfall variability pattern was calculated using coefficient of variation CV, %. Post-monsoon rainfall showed the maximum value of CV (70.80%), whereas annual rainfall exhibited the minimum value of CV (17.09%), respectively. In general, high variation of CV was found which showed that the entire region is very vulnerable to droughts and floods.     

Probabilities of excess and deficient southwest monsoon rainfall over different meteorological sub-divisions of India

Temporal distribution of southwest monsoon (June –September) rainfall is very useful for the country’s agriculture and food grain production. It contributes more than 75% of India’s annual rainfall. In view of this, an attempt has been made here to understand the performance of the monthly rainfall for June, July, August and September when the seasonal rainfall is reported as excess, deficient or normal. To know the dependence of seasonal rainfall on monthly rainfall, the probabilities of occurrence of excess, deficient and normal monsoon when June, July, August and also June + July and August + September rainfall is reported to be excess or deficient, are worked out using the long homogenous series of 124 years (1871-–1994) data of monthly and seasonal rainfall of 29 meteorological sub-divisions of the plain regions of India. In excess monsoon years, the average percentage contribution of each monsoon month to the long term mean (1871–1994) seasonal rainfall (June –September) is more than that of the normal while in the deficient years it is less than normal. This is noticed in all 29 meteorological sub-divisions. From the probability analysis, it is seen that there is a rare possibility of occurrence of seasonal rainfall to be excess/deficient when the monthly rainfall of any month is deficient/excess.