Upper mantle flow beneath the Northwest of China and its lithospheric dynamics

ＵｐｐｅｒｍａｎｔｌｅｆｌｏｗｂｅｎｅａｔｈｔｈｅＮｏｒｔｈｗｅｓｔｏｆＣｈｉｎａａｎｄｉｔｓｌｉｔｈｏｓｐｈｅｒｉｃｄｙｎａｍｉｃｓＪＩＡＮ－ＨＵＡＨＵＡＮＧＩ（黄建华）；ＸＩＡ－ＨＵＡＣＨＡＮＧＩ（常筱华）ａｎｄＲＯＮＧ－ＳＨＡＮＦＵＩ傅容珊）（...     

Calculation of b value and its application in earthquake prediction

ＣａｌｃｕｌａｔｉｏｎｏｆｂｖａｌｕｅａｎｄｉｔｓａｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｉｎｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎＨｕａ－ＣｈｅｎＤＵＡＮ（段华琛）；Ｃｈａｎｇ－ＱｉｎｇＦＡＮ（范长青）ａｎｄＹｕｅ－ＭｉｎＸＵ（许跃敏）（Ｓｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌ...     

Rediscussion on the seismic regime network

ＲｅｄｉｓｃｕｓｓｉｏｎｏｎｔｈｅｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｒｅｇｉｍｅｎｅｔｗｏｒｋＺｅ－ＧａｏＷＡＮＧ（王泽皋）；Ｐｅｉ－ＱｉｎｇＳＵＮ（孙佩卿）；Ｊｉｎｇ－ＣｈｕｎＧＡＯ（高景春）；Ｓｈｕ－ＬｉａｎＬＩ（李淑莲）；ＸｕｅＺＨＡＮＧ（张雪）ａｎｄＹａｎＧＵＯ...     

A possible UL Fseismice lectro-magnetic emission

ＡｐｏｓｓｉｂｌｅＵＬＦｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｅｌｅｃｔｒｏ－ｍａｇｎｅｔｉｃｅｍｉｓｓｉｏｎＸｉｎｇ－ＣａｉＬＩ；（李兴才）Ｈｕｉ－ＸｉｎＣＡＯ；（曹惠馨）Ｔｉｅ－ＨｏｎｇＹＵ；（俞铁宏）ａｎｄＺｈｉ－ＹｏｎｇＣＨＥＮ；（＠２陈智勇）（Ｉｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏ...     

Research on nonlinear R／S method and its application in earthquake prediction

ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎｎｏｎｌｉｎｅａｒＲ／ＳｍｅｔｈｏｄａｎｄｉｔｓｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｉｎｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎＢｉ－ＱｕａｎＷＡＮＧ（王碧泉）；Ｈａｎ－ＭｉｎｇＨＵＡＮＧ（黄汉明）；Ｈｏｎｇ－ＳｈｕｎＦＡＮ（范洪顺）；Ｃｈｕｅｎ...     

A new approach to numerical simulation of source development of earthquake

ＡｎｅｗａｐｐｒｏａｃｈｔｏｎｕｍｅｒｉｃａｌｓｉｍｕｌａｔｉｏｎｏｆｓｏｕｒｃｅｄｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅＣＨＵＮ－ＡＮＴＡＮＧ（唐春安）ＹＵ－ＦＡＮＧＦＵ（傅宇方）ＷＥＮＺＨＡＯ（赵文）ＣｅｎｔｅｒｆｏｒＲｏｃｋｂｕｒｓｔｓ...     

The application of resistivity tomography to hydrogeological exploration

ＴｈｅａｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｏｆｒｅｓｉｓｔｉｖｉｔｙｔｏｍｏｇｒａｐｈｙｔｏｈｙｄｒｏｇｅｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌｅｘｐｌｏｒａｔｉｏｎＲＵＩＦＥＮＧ１）（冯锐）ＸＩＡＯ－ＱＩＮＬＩ２）（李晓芹）ＹＵ－ＬＵＴＡＯ２）（陶裕录）ＣＩ－ＣＨＡＮＧＳＵＮ２）（...     

Research on the completeness of earthquake data in the Chinese mainland（I）──North China

ＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎｔｈｅｃｏｍｐｌｅｔｅｎｅｓｓｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｄａｔａｉｎｔｈｅＣｈｉｎｅｓｅｍａｉｎｌａｎｄ（Ｉ）──ＮｏｒｔｈＣｈｉｎａＷｅｉ－ＱｉｏｎｇＨＵＡＮＧ（黄玮琼）；Ｗｅｎ－ＸｉａｎｇＬＩ；（李文香）ａｎｄＸｕｅ－ＦｅｎｇＣ...     

On the colocation iterative solution model and algorithm for gravity anomaly

ＯｎｔｈｅｃｏｌｏｃａｔｉｏｎｉｔｅｒａｔｉｖｅｓｏｌｕｔｉｏｎｍｏｄｅｌａｎｄａｌｇｏｒｉｔｈｍｆｏｒｇｒａｖｉｔｙａｎｏｍａｌｙＹＵＡＮ－ＸＩＹＡＮＧ（杨元喜）ａｎｄＣＨＡＮＧ－ＪＩＡＮＬＩＵ（刘长建）ＺｈｅｎｇｚｈｏｕＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＳ...     

Application of PP cluster method in the earthquake swarm analysis

ＡｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｏｆＰＰｃｌｕｓｔｅｒｍｅｔｈｏｄｉｎｔｈｅｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｗａｒｍａｎａｌｙｓｉｓＳｈｉ－ＹｏｎｇＺＨＯＵ；（周仕勇）Ｌｉｎｇ－ＲｅｎＺＨＵ；（朱令人）ａｎｄＣｈｕａｎ－ＬｉｎｇＤＥＮＧ（邓传玲）（Ｓｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃ...     

TSIP中期地震预报方法在辽宁地区的应用与研究

本文用ＣＮ算法研究了辽宁省两个地震重点监视防御区的中强震前的强震发生概率增长时间,结果表明预测效果较好,有震报准率为９０％,ＴＩＰ预测警戒占时空率为３０％左右,Ｒ值评分为０．６左右。在ＴＩＰ预测的基础上,进一步用ＳＩＰ方法分析这两个区域的空间背景发震概率的不均匀分布。综合应用ＴＩＰ方法和ＳＩＰ方法,对辽宁省及邻近地区进行了试验性地震预报。     

中国大陆6级强震前的TIP研究

使用地震频次及其变化，平均震级和地震加权和的变化作为地震流函数研究了发生在１９８０－１９８９年期间中国大陆的６级强震前的地震概率增长时间。结果表明，１０次强震中９次发生在ＴＩＰ之后，而且最长ＴＩＰ为３．５年，ＴＩＰ总时空占有率为３０％。用同样的原则对新区进行识别也获得了好的结果。     

Research on Algorithm M8 Applying to TIP Prediction of China's Strong Earthquake Cases in the Past Decades

This paper offers a positive research result of TIP before 16 strong earthquakes in North and Southwest China and their nearby areas since 1979 by using improved algorithm M8.The result showed that 14 of them were determined to occur within the times of increased probability.TIP precaution occupies about 37% of the total space-time domain.That means we have made quite good results of intermediate-term prediction of strong earthquakes.So the method could be used as one of the useful means of the intermediate-term prediction of strong earthquakes.     

强震前中期地震活动的变化及TIP预测研究

用改进的Ｍ８算法研究了１９７９年以来我国华北西南及邻近地区共１６次强震前的ＴＩＰ，即震发生概率增长时间。结果表明，１４次强震发生在补判定为概率增长时间的ＴＩＰ内。ＴＩＰ警戒约占研究部时空域的３７％，获得了较好的强震中期预测内符效果。表明该方法可作为强震中期预测的手段之一。     

地震大形势预测方法的预测效能与应用研究

采用地震非均匀度(GL值)预测方法, 在震例回朔性检验研究、 室内岩石破裂实验及GPS观测结果等三种途径对该方法预测效能进行评价研究的基础上, 开展对中国大陆未来1～3年强地震活动主体地区和危险性预测工作。 效能评价结果表明, 地震非均匀度(GL值)可以较好地刻画岩石失稳前因破裂成核导致的声发射活动在时间分布上的状态变化, 这种状态变化可能与强地震孕育进入末期、 强地震即将发生有关。 地震非均匀度时空扫描结果表明, 未来1～3年中国大陆强地震活动主体地区将集中在青藏块体中北部及新疆南天山地区, 上述区域在未来一个时期发生多次6.5级乃至7级以上地震的可能性较大。     

地震时空影响域、复发间隔和有效孕震时间

研究表明,地城的时空影响域（影响范围）在t（时间）－r（距离）坐标上具有双曲线型的边界曲线,t=0时的最大影响半径为r0,r=0时的最大影响时间（即原地复发间隔)为t0。根据我国华北,西北,青藏和西南地区后继地震相对于无发地震的时,距分布状况,经优化拟合和统计分析,确定了地震时空影响域的优化边界曲线及90％置信度边界曲线。以三维（时间－距离－震级）的“地震时空影响域”概念取代一维（时间）或二维（时间－震级）的“复发间隔”概念,为认识地震活动涨落起伏的实质,估计潜在震源的有效震孕震时间和改进地城的中长期预测提供了新的思路。     

Intermediate-term Predictions of Earthquakes in Italy: Algorithm M8

—Large earthquakes in Italy are preceded by a specific seismic activation which could be diagnosed by a reproducible intermediate-term earthquake prediction method—a modification for lower seismic rate areas of the algorithm, known as M8 (Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov, 1990). Use has been made of the PFG-ING catalog of earthquakes, compiled on a regular basis, to determine areas and times of increased probability for occurrences of M≥ 6 earthquakes. In retroactive simulation of forward prediction, for the period 1972–1995, both the 1976 Friuli, M = 6.1 and the 1980 Irpinia, M = 6.5 earthquakes are predicted. In the experiment where priority magnitude scale is used, the times of increased probability for a strong earthquake to occur (TIPs) occupy less than a quarter of the total magnitude-space-time domain, and are rather stable with respect to positioning of circles of investiga tion. Successful stability tests have been made considering a recently compiled catalog (CCI97) (Peresan et al., 1997). In combination with the CN algorithm results (Costa et al., 1996) the spatio-temporal uncertainty of the prediction could be reduced to 5%. The use of M8 for the forward prediction requires the computations to be repeated each half-year, using the updated catalog.     

最大熵原理在地震时间间隔和震级分布中的应用

基于最大熵原理,得到地震时间间隔和地震震级的概率分布函数。根据时间间隔分布,得到地震发震概率,当概率上升达到警界值时,可对云南5级以上中强地震做出预测。6个月以内中短期预测对应率为91％;3个月以内,短临期预测对应率为73％。根据震级分布,得到用最大熵原理求出的地震理论发生次数,理论发震次数与实际较为接近。用最大熵原理求出了云南不同地区不同震级档次5级以上中强地震的复发周期。分析认为,云南7级以上大震危险性在逐步逼近,西部危险性高于东部。     

中国大陆强震活动对称性研究

利用中国大陆MS≥8.0地震基本信息,研究其时空对称性,并对未来可能发生MS≥8.0地震的时间和地点进行趋势判断,目的是探索对称性在地震灾害预测中的应用价值。采用时间对称性的三元、四元、五元可公度方法和蝴蝶结构图法,对1500年以来中国大陆MS≥8.0地震进行趋势分析,结果表明,我国大陆未来5年内可能在2012年和2015年发生MS≥8.0地震。空间对称性方面,通过对每一期地震震源点位置统计综合构建多边形结构考虑其空间分布对称性,对历史MS≥8.0地震震源分布规律进行分析,结果表明,下一(几)次中国大陆发生MS≥8.0地震大致在105°E以西、34°N以南位置。     

Research on the Algorithm CN Applied to Prediction of 23 Strong Earthquakes in China

This paper researches TIP before 23 strong earthquakes occurring in the eastern part and the southern and northern zones of the western part of China and their nearby areas in recent decades.The results show that 18 strong earthquakes occurred within the diagnosed TIP.The TIP precaution occupies about 30% of the total space-time domain which we researched,indicating quite good results of intermediate-term prediction of earthquakes.The algorithm CN can thus be used as an intermediate-term prediction method for strong earthquakes.