Theoretical model for the formation of ion-pairs in seawater

Predictions of association constants for ion-pair formation in seawater were compared to measured constants as a test for the existence of ion-pairs. A fair agreement was obtained in most cases, although the theoretical electrostatic calculations indicate that significant chloride ion-pairing should occur which has not been observed in most experimental investigations.     

Extreme response prediction for nonlinear floating offshore structures by Monte Carlo simulation

The paper describes a method for the prediction of extreme response statistics of floating offshore structures subjected to random seas by Monte Carlo simulation. The particular case of the horizontal surge motions of a tension leg platform is considered, taking into account both the first order, wave frequency and the second order, slow-drift motions. The advantage of the Monte Carlo method is its simplicity and versatility, which allows us to account for the effect of time-variant wave-drift damping, as well as nonlinear mooring characteristics without noticeable increase in the computational complexity. It is demonstrated in this paper that the commonly assumed obstacle against using the Monte Carlo method for estimating extreme responses, i.e. excessive CPU time, can be circumvented, bringing the computation time down to quite acceptable levels.     

A neural network for the prediction of wave reflection from coastal and harbor structures

This paper presents the development of an Artificial Neural Network for the prediction of the wave reflection coefficient from a wide range of coastal and harbor structures. The Artificial Neural Network is trained and validated against an extensive database of about 6000 data, including smooth, rock and armor unit slopes, berm breakwaters, vertical walls, low crested structures, oblique wave attacks. The structure and data included in this database, as well as the approach used in this paper, follow the work done on wave overtopping within the CLASH project.In this new Artificial Neural Network 13 input elements are used to represent the physics of the reflection process taking into account the structure geometry (height, submergence, straight or non-straight slope, with or without berm or toe), the structure type (smooth or covered by an armor layer, with permeable or impermeable core) and the wave attack (water depth, wave height, wave length, wave obliquity, directional spreading).The selection of the input elements and of the algorithms used in the network is described based on an in-depth sensitivity analysis of the network performance.The accuracy of the network is quite satisfactory, being the average root mean squared error lower than 0.04. This value is consistent between the Artificial Neural Network calibrated on the original dataset and the one calibrated on boot-strapped datasets in which data reliability and structure complexity are considered.The performance of the network is compared for limited datasets with selected available literature formulae proving that this approach is able to estimate the experimental reflection coefficients with greater accuracy than the empirical formulae calibrated on these same datasets.     

地震条件下海底双层油气管线的工作理论、强度标准和损伤评价

我国渤海湾是地震多发地区 ,该地区的海底输油管线随时都面临地震的威胁。地震成为渤海输油管线必要的设计条件 ,地震载荷是在役管线安全风险评估必须包括的环境载荷。本文综述了国内外在管线抗震设计及相关研究、双层油气管线的工作理论、强度标准与损伤评判等方面的研究工作 ,对我国制定地震条件下海底管线的评估计算方法、管线的抗震设计准则以及地震灾害的防治与风险分析具有一定的参考价值     

Numerical modelling of flow around coastal structures and scour prediction

The nearshore circulation and the wave characteristics are important parameters, which control coastline morphology. The interaction of nearshore circulation with coastal structures, modify the wave characteristics and seabed topography, often resulting in scour near the foundation of the structures. This paper deals with the numerical prediction of nearshore circulation induced due to wave setup in the nearshore region with and without the structure [(i) structure resting on seabed (ii) structure raised above the seabed]. It is also helps understand the deficiencies in studying the coastal characteristics by describing the flow field due to the wave velocity potential alone. Comparison of the results of both nearshore circulation and the wave potential model are discussed and the importance of the study and its prototype applications are highlighted.     

格型钢板桩结构数值建模方法研究

针对格型钢板桩结构的三种建模方法(考虑板桩间铰接特性,用壳体单元模拟板桩的有限元模型;不考虑板桩间铰接特性,用壳体单元模拟板桩的有限元模型;将格体看做一个整体,用实体单元模拟板桩的有限元模型)进行分析,对各种建模方法得出的关于稳定性、破坏模式、格体环向应力、格体内外土体压力的相关结论进行比较,得到适合工程应用的建模方法。结果表明:三种有限元模型中,考虑板桩间铰接特性的壳体单元模型,因其考虑因素全面,是最准确的模型。对于重要工程,应采用考虑板桩间铰接特性的壳体单元模型进行计算。对于一般工程结构,在稳定性分析方面,三种有限元模型都很适用,由于壳体单元模型收敛性较差,建议采用比较成熟的实体单元模型进行简化;对于破坏模式和板桩间环向应力,建议采用不考虑板桩间铰接作用的壳体单元模型进行简化;对于结构背浪侧格型钢板桩结构格体外侧土体最大被动土压力和格内土体压力,采用不考虑板桩间铰接特性的壳体单元模型进行估算。结论对工程数值建模运算具有指导意义。     

基于BELLHOP 模型的宽带信号波形预报

为解决信号级声纳仿真系统的水声传输信道宽带信号波形预报问题,采用射线模型的基本原理,推导了基于射线的宽带水声信道响应函数.并在Pekeris环境条件下,分析比较了基于BELLHOP射线模型的时域宽带模型与基于BDRM模型的频域宽带模型波形预报结果.结果表明,水声信道具有典型的时域数字滤波器特征,其本质是对脉冲信号进行延迟、加权和求和,这种延迟求和会导致系统频域幅度响应函数呈现“梳状滤波器”形状.在一定条件下,射线模型与简正波模型具有同等计算精度,由于射线模型通过一次计算就能得到所有本征声线的幅度和延迟,相对于简正波模型来说,计算效率更高.同时利用射线模型,能够方便地选择接收特定角度出射的本征声线.     

Wave force prediction using an autoregressive model

An autoregressive wave force model is developed which is capable of accounting for localized flow history effects. It was developed in conjunction with the analysis of a series of experiments performed to study the wave-induced forces acting on a free-to-surge vertical cylinder in random waves. The wave force model incorporates a relative motion form of the Morison equation. The formulation presented in this study is quite general, but the filter coefficients in the model must be uniquely determined for each data set. The optimal length of the filter and its sensitivity are illustrated using data from small-scale wave tank tests. A high frequency wave force component observed in the experimental data is reproduced using this model. Lastly, the autoregressive wave force model is used to predict the response of a tension-leg platform to a wave train. A comparison of the results obtained both with and without the filter model are presented.     

A model for numerical simulation of nonstationary sonar reverberation using linear spectral prediction

An innovative approach to the numerical generation of nonstationery reverberation time series is presented and demonstrated. The computer simulated reverberation time series are of high quality, in that they are accurate representations of those which would result from an actual sonar system (transmit/receive and horizontal/ vertical beampatterns; pulse type, shape, length, and power; frequency and sampling rate), platform (speed and depth), and environment (wind speed and direction, backscattering strengths, and propagation loss). Volume, surface, and/or bottom reverberation as seen by a multiple beam sonar on a moving platform is generated. The approach utilizes recent developments in linear spectral prediction research in which the spectra of stochastic processes are modeled as rational functions and algorithms are used to efficiently compute optimal estimates of coefficients which specify the spectra. A two-fold sequence is formulated; first, the expected reverberation spectra for all beams are predicted and, second, the stochastic time series are generated from the expected spectra. The expected spectra are predicted using a numerical implementation, referred to as the REVSPEC (reverberation spectrum) model, of a general formulation of Faure, Ol'shevskii, and Middleton. Given the spectra, the Levinson-Durbin method is used to solve the Yule-Walker equations of the autoregressive formulation of linear spectral prediction. The numerical implementation of the approach, referred to as the REVSIM (reverberation simulation) model, produces nonstationary coherent multiple-beam reverberation time series. The formulation of the REVSIM model is presented and typical results given. A comparison is made between the simulation outputs of the REVSIM model and those of the REVGEN (reverberation generator) model, a standard well-accepted time series simulation model, to demonstrate the validity of the new approach.     

Development of wavelet network model for accurate water levels prediction with meteorological effects

Accurate water levels modeling and prediction is essential for safety of coastal navigation and other maritime applications. Water levels modeling and prediction is traditionally developed using the least-squares-based harmonic analysis method that estimates the harmonic constituents from the measured water levels. If long water level measurements are not obtained from the tide gauge, accurate water levels prediction cannot be estimated. To overcome the above limitations, the current state-of-the-art artificial neural network has recently been developed for water levels prediction from short water level measurements. However, a highly nonlinear and efficient wavelet network model is proposed and developed in this paper for water levels modeling and prediction using short water level measurements. Water level measurements (about one month and a week) from six different tide gauges are employed to develop the proposed model and investigate the atmospheric changes effect. It is shown that the majority of error values, the differences between water level measurements and the modeled and predicted values, fall within the −5 cm and +5 cm range and root-mean-squared (RMS) errors fall within 1–6 cm range. A comparison between the developed highly nonlinear wavelet network model and the harmonic analysis method and the artificial neural networks shows that the RMS of the developed wavelet network model when compared with the RMS of the harmonic analysis method is reduced by about 70% and when compared with the RMS of the artificial neural networks is reduced by about 22%. It is also worth noting that if the atmospheric changes effect (meteorological effect) of the air pressure, the air temperature, the relative humidity, wind speed and wind direction are considered, the performance accuracy of the developed wavelet network model is improved by about 20% (based on the estimated RMS values).     

A two-phase numerical model for sediment transport prediction under oscillatory sheet flows

To predict sediment transport under oscillatory sheet flow condition, especially for fine sand, is still a challenging research subject in coastal engineering. This paper describes a newly-developed numerical model based on two-phase theory with the use of a one-equation turbulence closure, and its applications in predicting fine sediment suspension in near-prototype oscillatory sheet flow conditions. Model results were compared with comprehensive laboratory measurements of flow velocity and sediment concentration under both symmetrical and asymmetrical oscillatory sheet flows from a large-scale water tunnel. Good agreements between the model results and measurements were achieved and the results demonstrated that the model is capable of reproducing detailed characteristics of sediment entrainment process in the sheet flow regime. The comparisons also revealed the fact that the concentration peaks at flow reversal is associated with the strong vertical sediment transport flux in the pickup layer, which has been widely observed in many laboratory experiments. The effects of flow reversal events on total sediment transport were also discussed.     

Experimental and finite element study on lateral global buckling of pipe-in-pipe structure by active control method

Offshore oil and gas exploration are gradually heading toward the deep sea and even the ultra-deep sea. According, the working temperature and pressure intensity of subsea oil and gas pipelines have increased by a considerable degree. This situation is accompanied by the global buckling problem in deep sea pipelines, which has become increasingly common. Meanwhile, ordinary single-layer pipelines cannot last for a long time under harsh deep-sea working conditions. Thus, multilayer pipelines, such as the pipe-in-pipe (PIP) structure and bundled pipelines, have gradually become top choices. However, the global buckling mechanisms of these multilayer pipelines are more complicated than those of single-layer pipelines. The sleeper–snake lay pipeline, which is an active control method for global buckling, was used in this study. The change and development laws of global buckling in a PIP structure at different wavelengths and amplitudes were determined through an experimental study. A dynamic solution method that considers artificial damping was adopted to establish finite element global buckling models of a PIP structure with initial imperfections. The effects of various factors, such as pipeline laying shape, sleeper–pipe function, and seabed–pipe function, on global buckling were analyzed. By the result of finite element method analysis, the initial imperfection, and sleeper–pipeline friction were determined to be the key factors that influenced critical pipeline buckling force. Accordingly, a reference for the design of PIP structures is presented.     

基于广义扩散方程海工混凝土结构耐久寿命概率评估方法

针对国内现有的氯离子侵蚀寿命预测模型存在的问题,提出了基于广义扩散方程(GDF)的海洋环境下混凝土结构耐久寿命预测的概率方法.以某海上混凝土工程原位取粉测试及室内快速试验为手段,获得不同环境分区的时变模型参数统计值.采用随机抽样方法,实现结构各部位混凝土使用寿命的概率预测.通过对模型参数的敏感性分析讨论了该模型的优点.最后,提出了周期性检测,不断更新模型参数的动态寿命评估思路.     

Spectral wave transformation model for simulating refraction-diffraction with strongly reflecting coastal structures

On the basis of the wave action balance equation which incorporates refraction, diffraction, reflection and wave-current interaction, a directional spectral wave transformation model WABED is developed for predicting the irregular wave refraction-diffraction with strongly reflecting structures in coastal regions. In the model, diffraction is taken into account by introducing a term formulated from a parabolic approximation wave equation, and reflection is calculated through a back-marching numerical approach at the reflecting boundary. Two experimental data sets are used to examine the performance of present model with regard to wave characteristics around reflecting coastal structures. One is from a physical experiment at idealized inlet with parallel jetties, while the other is from a laboratory study on a coastal project of the concave breakwater. Reasonably good agreements are found for both cases, revealing the applicability of the present model for predicting combined wave refraction-diffraction processes with strongly reflecting coastal structures.     

A hindered settling model for the prediction of settling and consolidation of cohesive sediment

The prediction of the settling and consolidation behavior of mixtures of cohesive and non-cohesive sediment is possible using a numerical model that solves the solids mass balance for each fraction. Consistency with the hindered settling theory as well as classical soil mechanics is preserved. Semi-empirical relationships for settling rate and effective stress as a function of density are required as constitutive equations. A simple procedure, using settling column experiment data, for calibration is proposed. The possibility of distinguishing different kinds of particles allows prediction of layered deposits.     

Theoretical prediction of running attitude of a semi-displacement round bilge vessel at high speed

Running attitudes of semi-displacement vessels are significantly changed at high speed and thus have an effect on resistance performance and stability of the vessel. There have been many theoretical approaches about the prediction of running attitudes of high-speed vessels in calm water. Most of them proposed theoretical formulations for the prismatic hard-chine planing hull. In this paper, running attitudes of a semi-displacement round bilge vessel are theoretically predicted and verified by high-speed model tests. Previous calculation methods for hard-chine planing vessels are extended to be applied to semi-displacement round bilge vessels. Force and moment components acting on the vessel are estimated in the present iteration program. Hydrodynamic forces are calculated by ‘added mass planing theory’, and near-transom correction function is modified to be suitable to a semi-displacement vessel. Next, ‘plate pressure distribution method’ is proposed as a new hydrodynamic force calculation method. Theoretical pressure model of the 2-dimensional flat plate is distributed on the instantaneous waterplane corresponding to the attitude of the vessel, and hydrodynamic force and moment are estimated by integration of those pressures. Calculations by two methods show good agreements with experimental results.     

Extreme value prediction via a quantile function model

Methods for estimating extreme loads are used in design as well as risk assessment. Regression using maximum likelihood or least squares estimation is widely used in a univariate analysis but these methods favour solutions that fit observations in an average sense. Here we describe a new technique for estimating extremes using a quantile function model. A quantile of a distribution is most commonly termed a ‘return level’ in flood risk analysis. The quantile function of a random variable is the inverse function of its distribution function. Quantile function models are different from the conventional regression models, because a quantile function model estimates the quantiles of a variable conditional on some other variables, while a regression model studies the conditional mean of a variable. So quantile function models allow us to study the whole conditional distribution of a variable via its quantile function, whereas conventional regression models represent the average behaviour of a variable.Little work can be found in the literature about prediction from a quantile function model. This paper proposes a prediction method for quantile function models. We also compare different types of statistical models using sea level observations from Venice. Our study shows that quantile function models can be used to estimate directly the relationships between sea condition variables, and also to predict critical quantiles of a sea condition variable conditional on others. Our results show that the proposed quantile function model and the developed prediction method have the potential to be very useful in practice.     

基于ARIMA模型的台风频次预测

基于日本东京台风中心的逐月台风生成频次资料,为最近30 a的台风逐月生成频次时间序列建立了合适的ARIMA乘积季节模型,并用该模型对2010—2014年的台风逐月生成频次进行了预测。结果表明:时间序列中的ARIMA乘积季节模型在预测台风频次方面具有一定的预测技巧,除2013年外,其余4 a模型提前1 a预测的全年台风生成总数的异常情况均与观测一致。