Analytical fragility assessment using unscaled ground motion records

It is desirable that nonlinear dynamic analyses for structural fragility assessment are performed using unscaled ground motions. The widespread use of a simple dynamic analysis procedure known as Cloud Analysis, which uses unscaled records and linear regression, has been impeded by its alleged inaccuracies. This paper investigates fragility assessment based on Cloud Analysis by adopting, as the performance variable, a scalar demand to capacity ratio that is equal to unity at the onset of limit state. It is shown that the Cloud Analysis, performed based on a careful choice of records, leads to reasonable and efficient fragility estimates. There are 2 main rules to keep in mind for record selection: to make sure that a good portion of the records leads to a demand to capacity ratio greater than unity and that the dispersion in records' seismic intensity is considerable. An inevitable consequence of implementing these rules is that one often needs to deal with the so‐called collapse cases. To formally consider the collapse cases, a 5‐parameter fragility model is proposed that mixes the simple regression in the logarithmic scale with logistic regression. The joint distribution of fragility parameters can be obtained by adopting a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation scheme leading directly to the fragility and its confidence intervals. The resulting fragility curves compare reasonably with those obtained from the Incremental Dynamic Analysis and Multiple Stripe Analysis with (variable) conditional spectrum–compatible suites of records at different intensity levels for 3 older reinforced concrete frames with shear‐, shear‐flexure‐, and flexure‐dominant behavior.     

Developing efficient scalar and vector intensity measures for IDA capacity estimation by incorporating elastic spectral shape information

Scalar and vector intensity measures are developed for the efficient estimation of limit‐state capacities through incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) by exploiting the elastic spectral shape of individual records. IDA is a powerful analysis method that involves subjecting a structural model to several ground motion records, each scaled to multiple levels of intensity (measured by the intensity measure or IM), thus producing curves of structural response parameterized by the IM on top of which limit‐states can be defined and corresponding capacities can be calculated. When traditional IMs are used, such as the peak ground acceleration or the first‐mode spectral acceleration, the IM‐values of the capacities can display large record‐to‐record variability, forcing the use of many records to achieve reliable results. By using single optimal spectral values as well as vectors and scalar combinations of them on three multistorey buildings significant dispersion reductions are realized. Furthermore, IDA is extended to vector IMs, resulting in intricate fractile IDA surfaces. The results reveal the most influential spectral regions/periods for each limit‐state and building, illustrating the evolution of such periods as the seismic intensity and the structural response increase towards global collapse. The ordinates of the elastic spectrum and the spectral shape of each individual record are found to significantly influence the seismic performance and they are shown to provide promising candidates for highly efficient IMs. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Approximate incremental dynamic analysis using the modal pushover analysis procedure

Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA)—a procedure developed for accurate estimation of seismic demand and capacity of structures—requires non‐linear response history analysis of the structure for an ensemble of ground motions, each scaled to many intensity levels, selected to cover the entire range of structural response—all the way from elastic behaviour to global dynamic instability. Recognizing that IDA of practical structures is computationally extremely demanding, an approximate procedure based on the modal pushover analysis procedure is developed. Presented are the IDA curves and limit state capacities for the SAC‐Los Angeles 3‐, 9‐, and 20‐storey buildings computed by the exact and approximate procedures for an ensemble of 20 ground motions. These results demonstrate that the MPA‐based approximate procedure reduces the computational effort by a factor of 30 (for the 9‐storey building), at the same time providing results to a useful degree of accuracy over the entire range of responses—all the way from elastic behaviour to global dynamic instability—provided a proper hysteretic model is selected for modal SDF systems. The accuracy of the approximate procedure does not deteriorate for 9‐ and 20‐storey buildings, although their dynamics is more complex, involving several ‘modes’ of vibration. For all three buildings, the accuracy of the MPA‐based approximate procedure is also satisfactory for estimating the structural capacities for the limit states of immediate occupancy, collapse prevention, and global dynamic instability. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于性能的钢筋混凝土框架剪力墙结构地震易损性分析

以某典型的20层钢筋混凝土框架剪力墙结构作为研究对象,研究基于性能的RC框架剪力墙结构易损性分析方法。首先选择合适的地震动记录,以0.2g为步长进行调幅后,建立300个结构-地震动样本空间,并确定结构损伤指标和性能参数;然后应用增量动力分析方法计算结构的地震动力响应,选择基本周期加速度反应谱为地震动参数,以研究结构反应的不确定性,并深入分析地震动参数与结构地震需求参数的关系;在此基础上,建立该结构基于加速度反应谱的易损性曲线进行结构易损性分析与评估。结果表明：随着地震动强度的增大,IDA曲线由单调增加变为非单调增加,分位曲线（16%,50%和84%）可以准确地衡量结构的性能;框剪结构在地震作用下的抗震性能表现良好,随着地震强度的增长,各性能超越概率大小的增长速度是不同的。     

A web‐based methodology for the prediction of approximate IDA curves

A web‐based methodology for the prediction of approximate IDA curves, which consists of two independent processes, is proposed. The result of the first process is a response database of the SDOF model, whereas the second process involves the prediction of approximate IDA curves from the response database by using n‐dimensional linear interpolation. Such an approach enables user‐friendly prediction of the seismic response parameters with high accuracy. In order to demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed methodology, a web application for the prediction of the approximate 16th, 50th and 84th fractile responses of an RC structure was developed. For the presented case study, the response database was computed for a set of 30 ground motion records and the discrete values of six structural parameters. Very good agreement between the computed and the approximated IDA curves of the four‐storey RC building was observed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of MPA to estimate probability of collapse of structures

This paper develops a modal pushover analysis‐ (MPA) based approximate procedure to quantify the collapse potential of structural systems. The computationally demanding incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) of the structural system is avoided by MPA of the structure in conjunction with empirical equations for the collapse strength ratio for the first‐mode single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDF) system; higher modes of vibration play essentially no role in estimating the ground motion intensity required to cause collapse of the structure. Presented are collapse fragility curves for 6‐, 9‐, and 20‐story regular special moment‐resisting teel frames computed by the exact and approximate procedures, demonstrating that the MPA‐based approximate procedure requires only a small fraction (1% in one example) of the computational effort inherent in exact IDA and still achieves highly accurate results. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sliding fragility of block‐type non‐structural components. Part 2: Restrained components

This paper focuses on seismic vulnerability assessment of restrained block‐type non‐structural components under sliding response on the basis of seismic inputs specified by current seismic codes. The general representation of restrained equipment considered in this study consists of a rigid block restrained by four post‐tensioned, symmetrically arranged cables. Two sliding‐related failure modes are considered: restraint breakage and excessive absolute acceleration. Fragility analysis is proposed as an appropriate tool to evaluate these failure modes. Sample fragility curves developed through Monte‐Carlo simulations show that the restraint breakage limit state is sensitive to the parameters of the equation of motion. For instance, fragility estimates obtained without taking into account vertical base accelerations can be significantly unconservative for relatively large values of the coefficient of friction. In contrast, the excessive absolute acceleration limit state exhibits little sensitivity to the parameters of the equation of motion. Peak absolute acceleration response is almost always equal to or greater than the horizontal peak base acceleration. Representative results suggest that reasonable response estimates for blocks located at stories other than the ground in multistorey buildings can in general be obtained by simply scaling the ground acceleration to the peak acceleration at the corresponding storey. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic reliability‐based ductility demand evaluation for inelastic base‐isolated structures with friction pendulum devices

The aim of this work is to propose seismic reliability‐based relationships between the strength reduction factors and the displacement ductility demand of nonlinear structural systems equipped with friction pendulum isolators (FPS) depending on the structural properties. The isolated structures are described by employing an equivalent 2dof model characterized by a perfectly elastoplastic rule to account for the inelastic response of the superstructure, whereas, the FPS behavior is described by a velocity‐dependent model. An extensive parametric study is carried out encompassing a wide range of elastic and inelastic building properties, different seismic intensity levels and considering the friction coefficient as a random variable. Defined a set of natural seismic records and scaled to the seismic intensity corresponding to life safety limit state for L'Aquila site (Italy) according to NTC08, the inelastic characteristics of the superstructures are designed as the ratio between the average elastic responses and increasing strength reduction factors. Incremental dynamic analyses (IDAs) are developed to evaluate the seismic fragility curves of both the inelastic superstructure and the isolation level assuming different values of the corresponding limit states. Integrating the fragility curves with the seismic hazard curves related to L'Aquila site (Italy), the reliability curves of the equivalent inelastic base‐isolated structural systems, with a design life of 50 years, are derived proposing seismic reliability‐based regression expressions between the displacement ductility demand and the strength reduction factors for the superstructure as well as seismic reliability‐based design (SRBD) abacuses useful to define the FPS properties. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analytical seismic fragility functions for highway and railway embankments and cuts

A fundamental tool in seismic risk assessment of transportation systems is the fragility curve, which describes the probability that a structure will reach or exceed a certain damage state for a given ground motion intensity. Fragility curves are usually represented by two‐parameter (median and log‐standard deviation) cumulative lognormal distributions. In this paper, a numerical approach, in the spirit of the IDA, is applied for the development of fragility curves for highways and railways on embankments and in cuts due to seismic shaking. The response of the geo‐construction to increasing levels of seismic intensity is evaluated using a 2D nonlinear finite element model, with an elasto‐plastic criterion to simulate the soil behavior. A calibration procedure is followed in order to account for the dependency of both the stiffness and the damping to the soil strain level. The effect of soil conditions and ground motion characteristics on the response of the embankment and cut is taken into account considering different typical soil profiles and seismic input motions. This study will provide input for the assessment of the vulnerability of the road/railway network regarding the performance of the embankments and cuts; therefore, the level of damage is described in terms of the permanent ground displacement in these structures. The fragility curves are estimated based on the evolution of damage with increasing earthquake intensity, which is described by PGA. The proposed approach allows the evaluation of new fragility curves considering the distinctive features of the element's geometry, the input motion, and the soil properties as well as the associated uncertainties. A relationship between the computed permanent ground displacement on the surface of the embankment and the PGA in the free field is also suggested based on the results of the numerical analyses. Finally, the proposed fragility curves are compared with existing empirical data and the limitations of their applicability are outlined. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of the influence of vertical irregularities on the seismic performance of a nine‐storey steel frame

A methodology based on incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is presented for the evaluation of structures with vertical irregularities. Four types of storey‐irregularities are considered: stiffness, strength, combined stiffness and strength, and mass irregularities. Using the well‐known nine‐storey LA9 steel frame as a base, the objective is to quantify the effect of irregularities, both for individual and for combinations of stories, on its response. In this context a rational methodology for comparing the seismic performance of different structural configurations is proposed by means of IDA. This entails performing non‐linear time history analyses for a suite of ground motion records scaled to several intensity levels and suitably interpolating the results to calculate capacities for a number of limit‐states, from elasticity to final global instability. By expressing all limit‐state capacities with a common intensity measure, the reference and each modified structure can be naturally compared without needing to have the same period or yield base shear. Using the bootstrap method to construct appropriate confidence intervals, it becomes possible to isolate the effect of irregularities from the record‐to‐record variability. Thus, the proposed methodology enables a full‐range performance evaluation using a highly accurate analysis method that pinpoints the effect of any source of irregularity for each limit‐state. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sliding fragility of block‐type non‐structural components. Part 1: Unrestrained components

Motivated by the development of performance‐based design guidelines with emphasis on both structural and non‐structural systems, this paper focuses on seismic vulnerability assessment of block‐type unrestrained non‐structural components under sliding response on the basis of seismic inputs specified by current seismic codes. Two sliding‐related failure modes are considered: excessive relative displacement and excessive absolute acceleration. It is shown that an upper bound for the absolute acceleration response can be assessed deterministically, for which a simple yet completely general equation is proposed. In contrast, fragility curves are proposed as an appropriate tool to evaluate the excessive relative displacement failure mode. Sample fragility curves developed through Monte‐Carlo simulations show that fragility estimates obtained without taking into account vertical base accelerations can be significantly unconservative, especially for relatively large values of the coefficient of friction. It is also found that reasonable estimates of relative displacement response at stories other than the ground in multistorey buildings cannot in general be obtained by simply scaling the ground acceleration to the peak acceleration at the corresponding storey. Failure modes considered in this study are found to be essentially independent of each other, a property that greatly simplifies assessment of conditional limit states. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Direct estimation of the seismic demand and capacity of oscillators with multi‐linear static pushovers through IDA

SPO2IDA is introduced, a software tool that is capable of recreating the seismic behaviour of oscillators with complex quadrilinear backbones. It provides a direct connection between the static pushover (SPO) curve and the results of incremental dynamic analysis (IDA), a computer‐intensive procedure that offers thorough demand and capacity prediction capability by using a series of nonlinear dynamic analyses under a suitably scaled suite of ground motion records. To achieve this, the seismic behaviour of numerous single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) systems is investigated through IDA. The oscillators have a wide range of periods and feature pinching hysteresis with backbones ranging from simple bilinear to complex quadrilinear with an elastic, a hardening and a negative‐stiffness segment plus a final residual plateau that terminates with a drop to zero strength. An efficient method is introduced to treat the backbone shape by summarizing the analysis results into the 16, 50 and 84% fractile IDA curves, reducing them to a few shape parameters and finding simpler backbones that reproduce the IDA curves of complex ones. Thus, vast economies are realized while important intuition is gained on the role of the backbone shape to the seismic performance. The final product is SPO2IDA, an accurate, spreadsheet‐level tool for performance‐based earthquake engineering that can rapidly estimate demands and limit‐state capacities, strength reduction R‐factors and inelastic displacement ratios for any SDOF system with such a quadrilinear SPO curve. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A performance‐based framework for adaptive seismic aftershock risk assessment

Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision‐making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first‐excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance‐based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post‐mainshock environment. A time‐dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event‐dependent fragility curves as a function of the first‐mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back‐to‐back nonlinear dynamic analyses. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio‐temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event‐dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first‐excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the number of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L'Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three‐story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first‐excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

增量动力弹塑性分析方法的改进及其应用

本文主要对增量动力弹塑性分析(IDA)方法的两个方面作了改进:(1)以增量动力弹塑性分析方法的基本原理为基础,以快速非线性时程分析(FNA)方法为计算工具,形成快速增量动力弹塑性分析(FIDA)方法。(2)仅以IDA分析结果为基础,建立地震易损性曲线及地震破坏概率计算的离散型式。为了校验本文方法的可行性与有效性,应用增量动力弹塑性分析、模态增量动力弹塑性分析与快速增量动力弹塑性分析计算一个14层筒中筒结构试验模型,比较了用上述三种方法的计算误差与计算效率,比较了传统方法与本文方法计算该模型结构的地震易损性曲线的差别。     

On the treatment of uncertainties in the development of fragility functions for earthquake loss estimation of building portfolios

State‐of‐the‐art methods for the assessment of building fragility consider the structural capacity and seismic demand variability in the estimation of the probability of exceeding different damage states. However, questions remain regarding the appropriate treatment of such sources of uncertainty from a statistical significance perspective. In this study, material, geometrical and mechanical properties of a number of building classes are simulated by means of a Monte Carlo sampling process in which the statistical distribution of the aforementioned parameters is taken into consideration. Record selection is performed in accordance with hazard‐consistent distributions of a comprehensive set of intensity measures, and issues related with sufficiency, efficiency, predictability and scaling robustness are addressed. Based on the appraised minimum number of ground motion records required to achieve statistically meaningful estimates of response variability conditioned on different levels of seismic intensity, the concept of conditional fragility functions is presented. These functions translate the probability of exceeding a set of damage states as a function of a secondary sufficient intensity measure, when records are selected and scaled for a particular level of primary seismic intensity parameter. It is demonstrated that this process allows a hazard‐consistent and statistically meaningful representation of uncertainty and correlation in the estimation of intensity‐dependent damage exceedance probabilities. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reliability of U‐shaped steel dampers used in base‐isolated structures subjected to biaxial excitation

A reliable performance of anti‐seismic devices when the upper‐structure is subjected to strong biaxial seismic excitation is of vital importance to ensure the latter doesn't reach critical behavior. U‐shaped steel dampers are hysteretic devices used to dissipate the earthquake‐induced energy of base‐isolated structures. In the framework of performance‐based design, which is gaining more and more recognition, it is of particular importance to assess the performance of base‐isolated structures with such dampers under different intensity levels of bidirectional ground motion. To achieve this goal, an analytical model able to simulate the bidirectional displacement response of an isolation system is adopted. Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is used to obtain the relation between the earthquake‐induced bidirectional damage of U‐shaped steel dampers and different intensity levels of the considered records. The performance of the dampers is categorized into 5 levels delimited by 4 limit states for which fragility curves are derived. The results obtained using the bidirectional approach are quantitatively compared to those given by employing an in‐plane model (widely used in current design practices in Japan) with the purpose of assessing whether the latter provides unconservative estimates of the performance of the dampers. The main conclusion is that, for large seismic intensities, the safety margin against fracture of the dampers is significantly overestimated when an in‐plane model is adopted. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction of seismic collapse risk of steel moment frame mid-rise structures by meta-heuristic algorithms

Different performance levels may be obtained for sideway collapse evaluation of steel moment frames depending on the evaluation procedure used to handle uncertainties. In this article, the process of representing modelling uncertainties, record to record (RTR) variations and cognitive uncertainties for moment resisting steel frames of various heights is discussed in detail. RTR uncertainty is used by incremental dynamic analysis (IDA), modelling uncertainties are considered through backbone curves and hysteresis loops of component, and cognitive uncertainty is presented in three levels of material quality. IDA is used to evaluate RTR uncertainty based on strong ground motion records selected by the k-means algorithm, which is favoured over Monte Carlo selection due to its time saving appeal. Analytical equations of the Response Surface Method are obtained through IDA results by the Cuckoo algorithm, which predicts the mean and standard deviation of the collapse fragility curve. The Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model is used to represent material quality based on the response surface coefficients. Finally, collapse fragility curves with the various sources of uncertainties mentioned are derived through a large number of material quality values and meta variables inferred by the Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy model based on response surface method coefficients. It is concluded that a better risk management strategy in countries where material quality control is weak, is to account for cognitive uncertainties in fragility curves and the mean annual frequency.     

Incremental dynamic analysis with consideration of modeling uncertainties

Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) has been extended by introducing a set of structural models in addition to the set of ground motion records which is employed in IDA analysis in order to capture record‐to‐record variability. The set of structural models reflects epistemic (modeling) uncertainties, and is determined by utilizing the latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method. The effects of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty on seismic response parameters are therefore considered in extended IDA analysis. The proposed method has been applied to an example of the four‐storey‐reinforced concrete frame, for which pseudo‐dynamic tests were performed at the ELSA Laboratory, Ispra. The influence of epistemic uncertainty on the seismic response parameters is presented in terms of summarized IDA curves and dispersion measures. The results of extended IDA analysis are compared with the results of IDA analysis, and the sensitivity of the seismic response parameters to the input random variable using the LHS method is discussed. It is shown that epistemic uncertainty does not have significant influence on the seismic response parameters in the range far from collapse, but could have a significant influence on collapse capacity. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of a recently proposed record selection and scaling procedure for low‐rise to mid‐rise reinforced concrete buildings and its use for probabilistic risk assessment studies

This paper evaluates a recent record selection and scaling procedure of the authors that can determine the probabilistic structural response of buildings behaving either in the elastic or post‐elastic range. This feature marks a significant strength on the procedure as the probabilistic structural response distribution conveys important information on probability‐based damage assessment. The paper presents case studies that show the utilization of the proposed record selection and scaling procedure as a tool for the estimation of damage states and derivation of site‐specific and region‐specific fragility functions. The method can be used to describe exceedance probabilities of damage limits under a certain target hazard level with known annual exceedance rate (via probabilistic seismic hazard assessment). Thus, the resulting fragility models can relate the seismicity of the region (or a site) with the resulting building performance in a more accurate manner. Under this context, this simple and computationally efficient record selection and scaling procedure can be benefitted significantly by probability‐based risk assessment methods that have started to be considered as indispensable for developing robust earthquake loss models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction of the median IDA curve by employing a limited number of ground motion records

A methodology has been proposed which can be used to reduce the number of ground motion records needed for the reliable prediction of the median seismic response of structures by means of incremental dynamic analysis (IDA). This methodology is presently limited to predictions of the median IDA curve only. The reduction in the number of ground motion records needed to predict the median IDA curve is achieved by introducing a precedence list of ground motion records. The determination of such a list is an optimization problem, which is solved in the paper by means of (1) a genetic algorithm and (2) a proposed simple procedure. The seismic response of a simple, computationally non‐demanding structural model has been used as input data for the optimization problem. The presented example is a three‐storey‐reinforced concrete building, subjected to two sets of ground motion records, one a free‐field set and the other a near‐field set. It is shown that the median IDA curves can be predicted with acceptable accuracy by employing only four ground motion records instead of the 24 or 30 records, which are the total number of ground motion records for the free‐field and near‐field sets, respectively. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.