苍山5.2级地震异常群体时空演化特征

在对 1 995年山东省苍山 5 2级地震异常筛选的基础上 ,分析了异常群体阶段性演化过程。结果表明 ,震前 1 0a左右震中周围出现小震小区域综合断层面解主压应力P轴偏转 (约 3 0°) ,震前 7a左右震中附近 3～ 4级地震增强集中及应变释放加速 ;震前 4a左右转为异常平静 ;震前 1a左右震中外围开始出现形变类前兆异常 ,前兆异常台站比和异常台项比约达 6%及 4%左右 ,异常比例偏少 ;震前约半年起 ,以震中附近地震波速比异常出现为起点 ,相继出现各类前兆异常 6条 ,短期前兆异常台站比和异常台项比分别约达 2 5 %和 1 7%左右 ,显示孕震进入短期阶段 ,但临震异常不明显。对由此获得的 5级地震预测启示进行了讨论。     

新疆2次中强地震前气枪震源反射波震相走时异常变化初步研究

以新疆2次5级左右地震为震例样本,选取震中附近石河子台、石场台和乌苏台记录的2013年8月以来的气枪震源信号数据,依据反射波震相,采用互相关检测技术等,研究2次5级左右地震前走时变化特征,得到如下研究结果:1根据单双层"3400走时表"速度模型,参考理论Pm P走时选取震相窗是可靠的;22次5级左右地震前3个台站记录的Pm P走时变化均出现4个月和2个月左右不同程度的低值异常过程,相对走时变化幅度约为0.1%~0.26%,距震中较近的石河子台、石场台的异常特征显著于较远的乌苏台;32次5级左右地震前走时异常变化时间和幅度均存在差异,这可能与震级和震中位置有关。     

2022年青海门源6.9级地震前岩石圈磁场异常变化分析

基于青海及甘肃部分地区2020—2021年2期流动地磁测点的观测资料,获得该地区的岩石圈磁场异常变化,通过研究岩石圈磁场各个分量的变化特征,系统分析2022年1月8日青海门源6.9级地震前岩石圈磁场的异常变化特征。结果表明：(1)门源地震前,震中区域岩石圈磁场各个分量具有较为明显的异常显示。具体表现为：震中区域附近岩石圈磁场变化的水平矢量具有方向转向及幅值弱化的异常变化现象;垂直矢量方向出现明显的南向、北向对冲的异常现象;磁偏角在震中附近具有“0”变线和高梯级带分布;总强度和垂直分量在震中附近具有“0”变线分布,并发生弯曲。(2)依据压磁效应分析,冷龙岭断裂北部岩石圈磁场增大,应力变化主要以释放为主,应力变化应处于较低水平;冷龙岭断裂南部岩石圈磁场强度减小,应力变化主要以积累为主,应力变化应处于较高水平。门源地震前,冷龙岭断裂构造应力调整引起的压磁效应可能是造成震中区域岩石圈磁场异常变化的主要原因。     

新疆伽师MS6.4地震前地磁日变化异常分析

以新疆伽师M S6.4地震为案例,利用地磁日变化异常分析方法,对中国地磁台网所记录的地磁观测资料进行分析,结果显示:1、离震中最近的喀什台震前59 d和39 d出现一组逐日比高值异常,排除干扰,且地磁日变形态也出现明显的畸变,异常集中于震中附近台站,震中位于异常阈值线附近;2、震前,新疆及周边地区出现地磁垂直分量日变化幅度的极小值时间在空间上出现地磁低点位移现象,低点时间分界线横穿南天山西段,呈现近EW走向分布,分界线两侧低点时间相差超过2 h,发震日期为异常发生后的38(41±4)d,震中位于低点位移分界线附近;3、地磁逐日比和低点位移异常的发生时间和空间分布可能与伽师M S6.4地震的孕育和发生有非常高的关联性。该研究进一步推广和检验了地磁日变化异常分析方法在地震预报方面的应用。     

加卸载响应比方法的空间扫描应用研究

用基于构造应力场资料的加卸载响应比方法,通过应力场参数、最少样本量等多种参数的分区全时空扫描对比,全面总结了大华北地区1970～1999年5级以上地震前的中期和短期时间演化特征: 在最少样本为15时,震前2年左右在震中附近出现Y₃≥2的高值异常区,于震前1年收缩、甚至消失,并常常在震前6个月左右时在震中处出现小范围的高值异常。预报效能R评分为0.3～0.5, P评分为0.4～0.6。研究结果还显示, 4级左右的中等地震前也存在Y₃的高值异常。     

安庆M4.8级地震前地磁低点位移现象研究

对安庆Ms4.8地震前中国大陆东部地区42个台站的地磁Z分量的幅度和相位进行分析,结果显示安庆地震前,华东地区出现地磁Z分量日变化幅度的极小值时间在空间上出现地磁低点位移现象,低点时间分界线沿郯庐断裂带呈现NNE走向,分界线两侧低点时间相差超过2h,地磁日变也出现明显的畸变,发震日期为异常发生后的29 (27±4)d,震中位于低点位移分界线附近,地磁低点位移的出现可能与安庆地震的孕育和发生相关.     

基于高频GNSS的2014年2月12日于田Ms7．3地震的同震位移研究

于田Ms7．3地震后,第一时间收集到震中350km范围内4个基准站1Hz高频数据,并用TRACK模块进行解算,研究结果发现,①距离震中54km处的于田基准站同震变化最明显,尤其是东西分量,变化幅度达52．5±11mm,超过解算精度3倍中误差;②于田基准站东西分量出现变化量值最大的时间在震后1min内;③北南分量变化不大。     

2022年芦山MS 6.1和马尔康MS 6.0地震前地震调制比异常分析

扫描2022年芦山M_S 6.1地震和马尔康M_S 6.0地震震前不同震级档调制比图像,同时给出震前b值分布图像,结果表明：2次6级地震前震中附近不同震级档调制比均出现高值异常。最小扫描震级越高,调制比扫描结果越稳定清晰,调制比高值异常出现时间越晚,同时最小扫描震级越高,异常范围、幅度也越大,异常与震中位置和发震时间关联性越强。调制比异常的幅度和范围与应力水平有关,2次地震震前震中附近均出现低b值区域,且马尔康M_S 6.0地震震中附近调制比异常和低b值异常都比芦山M_S 6.1地震更突出,推断马尔康M_S 6.0地震孕震区应力水平可能高于芦山M_S 6.1地震孕震区应力水平。     

新疆精河M_S6.6地震前地球物理定点观测中、短期异常时空演化特征分析

基于精河M_S6.6地震震中附近地球物理定点观测资料,分析精河地震前9项中、短期异常变化特点,讨论震中附近区域异常时空演化特征。结果表明:精河地震前地球物理定点观测中、短期异常在时间上具有阶段性特征,震前6～12个月和震前1个月异常数量较多,异常主要在地震发生前、后1个月恢复;异常形态以年变畸变和速率快速变化为主;在空间上异常分布相对集中,异常表现为由南向北、由西向东迁移,且逐渐远离震中的特征。     

于田7.3级地震前MODIS卫星热红外异常分析

收集了2014年1—2月新疆于田7.3级地震区连续的MODIS/Terra卫星遥感热红外资料,经过去云等数据处理,选取观测质量最佳的北京时间凌晨4—6时的热红外数据进行地表温度反演,分析地震前后地表温度异常时间演化过程及其异常空间分布与活动断裂的关系,并讨论了震区地形地貌、季节性气候以及雨雪天气等非构造因子对地温异常的影响。结果表明:1)在于田地震发生前1个月震中附近出现热红外异常增温现象,异常增温与发震时间有一定的对应性。显著增温主要表现在震前半个月左右;在临震前5~6d,增温异常达到峰值,震后温度迅速下降;2)与地形地貌、季节性气候以及雨雪天气等非构造因子的相关分析表明,震前反映出反季节变化的构造"增温"信息,雨雪天气对震区异常升温产生一定程度的影响;3)震中附近西南部的谷地、盆地断裂构造复杂,热红外异常增温起始于此,并沿断层逐步向震中迁移;4)异常升温区域呈条带状,与宏观考察的NE向主破裂带一致;充分考虑地形地貌、季节性气候、雨雪天气等非构造因素对异常升温的影响,认为此次热红外升温可能为震前短临异常现象。     

Changes in sediment transport in the Kuye River in the Loess Plateau in China

In this paper, the changes in sediment transport over 51 years from 1955 to 2006 in the Kuye River in the Loess Plateau in China are assessed. Key factors affecting sediment yield and sediment transport, such as precipitation depth, discharge, and human activities are studied. To investigate the changes in sediment yield in this watershed, a trend analysis on sediment concentration, precipitation depth, and discharge is conducted. Precipitation depths at 2 Climate Stations （CSs）, as well as discharge and sediment transport at 3 Gauging Stations （GSs） are used to assess the features of sediment transport in the Kuye River. The rtmoff modulus （defined as the annual average discharge per unit area, L/（s·km^2）） and the sediment transport modulus （defined as the annual suspended sediment transport per unit area, t/（yr km^2）） are introduced in this study to assess the changes in runoff and sediment yield for this watershed. The results show that the highest average monthly discharge during the study period in the Kuye River is 66.23 m^3/s in August with an average monthly sediment concentration of 88.9 kg/m^3. However, the highest average monthly sediment concentration during the study period in the Kuye River is 125.34 kg/m^3 and occurs in July, which has an average discharge of 42.6 m^3/s that is much less than the average monthly discharge in August. It is found that both the runoff modulus and sediment transport modulus at Wenjiachuan GS on the Kuye River has a clear downward trend. During the summer season from July to August, the sediment transport modulus at Wenjiachuan GS is much higher than those at Toudaoguai and Longmen GSs on the Yellow River. The easily erodible loess in the Kuye River watershed and the sparse vegetation are responsible for the extremely high sediment yield from the Kuye River watershed. The analyses of the grain size distribution of suspended load in the Kuye River are presented. The average monthly median grain size of suspended load in the Kuye River is largest in February and then decreases until June. In July, the average monthly median grain size of suspended load approaches another peak and decreases until September. Then, the median grain size of suspended load starts to increase until February of the following year. However, the average monthly median grain size of suspended load in the Yellow River at Toudaoguai and Longmen GSs is the smallest between early summer and late fall The median grain size in the Yellow River starts to increase in November and approaches the largest size in January.     

Variations in trace gas concentrations in different environments in India

Observations of trace gases (SO₂, NH₃, NO₂ and O₃) were made during the period 1981 to 1984 at 6 different locations representative of urban industrial, urban, nonurban, thermal power plant and marine environment. Diurnal variations of the trace gases were studied in an urban environment. Except in the urban industrial environment, the concentration of NH₃ was found in the range of background values. Also, the average concentrations of NO₂ and O₃ at the different environments were in the order of background values. However, the concentrations of SO₂ were substantially higher by about 7 times, in urban industrial and thermal power plant environments. The diurnal variations of SO₂, NH₃ and NO₂ showed anitphase relationship with surface temperature at the urban environment station which is relatively free of industrial pollution. Discussion is centred on trace gas variations in different environments in India together with the values reported for various countries in the world.     

TritiogenicHe in groundwater in Takaoka

³He/⁴He ratios up to 3.5 times the ratio of atmospheric He were found in groundwater samples. The³He enrichment can be attributed to radiogenic³He produced by in-situ beta-decay of³H. This shows that tritiogenic³He is accumulating in confined waters. From tritiogenic³He and³H concentrations, ages of groundwaters can be calculated. Detection of tritiogenic³He gives a tool to trace a tritium contamination which occurred in the past and cannot be assessed only by the³H counting method.     

2008年云南地震灾害概况

列出了2008年云南省破坏性地震目录.在此基础上,结合云南省地震局的地震灾害评估资料,总结了2008年云南地震灾害的主要数据和特性.最后列出1990～2008年云南地震灾害的相应数据,并进行了简要对比.     

2007年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评

在列出2007年中国5级以上地震目录的基础上,结合有关省(自治区、直辖市)地震局的地震灾害评估资料,总结出2007年中国大陆地震灾害的主要数据和特性。最后列出1990—2007年中国大陆地震灾害的相应数据,并进行了简要的比较。     

Applied volcanology in geothermal exploration in Iceland

In an active spreading area like Iceland, where the regional geothermal gradient is in the range 50–150°C/km, it is normally not a problem to find high enough temperature with deep drilling, but the difficulties arise with finding permeable layers at depth within the strata. Various volcanological methods can be applied in the search for aquifers and geothermal reservoir rocks. The flow pattern (as deduced from deuterium studies) indicates that the thermal water flows preferentially along high porosity stratiform horizons and dyke swarms from the recharge areas in the highlands to the hot spring areas in the lowlands. The primary porosity of the volcanic strata is dependent on the chemical composition and the mode of eruption of the volcanic units. Both the reservoir rocks and the flow channels forming the geothermal plumbing system are thought to vary from the Tertiary to the Quaternary provinces due to environmental conditions at the eruptive sites.     

Projected changes in flood indices in selected catchments in Poland in the 21st century

The aim of this study is to estimate likely changes in flood indices under a future climate and to assess the uncertainty in these estimates for selected catchments in Poland. Precipitation and temperature time series from climate simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative for the periods 1971–2000, 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 following the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios have been used to produce hydrological simulations based on the HBV hydrological model. As the climate model outputs for Poland are highly biased, post processing in the form of bias correction was first performed so that the climate time series could be applied in hydrological simulations at a catchment-scale. The results indicate that bias correction significantly improves flow simulations and estimated flood indices based on comparisons with simulations from observed climate data for the control period. The estimated changes in the mean annual flood and in flood quantiles under a future climate indicate a large spread in the estimates both within and between the catchments. An ANOVA analysis was used to assess the relative contributions of the 2 emission scenarios, the 7 climate models and the 4 bias correction methods to the total spread in the projected changes in extreme river flow indices for each catchment. The analysis indicates that the differences between climate models generally make the largest contribution to the spread in the ensemble of the three factors considered. The results for bias corrected data show small differences between the four bias correction methods considered, and, in contrast with the results for uncorrected simulations, project increases in flood indices for most catchments under a future climate.     

Advances in ground motion studies in China

This paper briefly summarizes the works in the processing of strong ground motion data, the factors affecting strong ground motion, the modeling of strong ground motion and the calculating of broad-band response spectrum which have been done recent years by engineering seismologists and seismologists of China. In addition, we think back to the international cooperation in strong ground motion of the recent years and make some expectations for the future.     

冬季亚洲中强震与夏季我国东部主雨带的准同纬性

根据1954～2003年50年亚洲中强震与我国地温资料,分析了冬季震中纬度—震涡中心纬度—冬季我国东部强地热涡中心纬度—夏季我国东部主雨带纬度4者之间的相互关系,发现冬季中强震与夏季主雨带之间具有较好的准同纬性. 这是每年汛期降水预报的一个指标. 文中也讨论了应用此预报指标时的一些特例.