一种新的拟合地震动衰减关系的分步回归法

提出了拟合地震动衰减关系的一种新的分步回归法.该方法首先确定近场饱和项,再获得距离衰减项,最后确定震级项.作为算例,采用NGA项目美国西部地区的强震观测资料,对基岩场地自由地表加速度反应谱平台高度值衰减关系进行了回归.结果表明,采用此方法对实际资料的拟合不存在系统偏差,结果稳定,能反映强震地震动在近场的距离饱和与震级饱和特性.对远场数据考虑截尾效应,能使回归结果正确反映地震动的远场衰减特征.     

地震动峰值参数衰减规律的研究

震级和地震波传播途径均有测量误差和不确定性。本文考虑震级和距离的不确定性,用作者提出的回归多随机变量间相关关系的一致加权最小二乘法,对地震动水平峰值加速度(PGA)、速度(PGV)和位移(PGD)的衰减关系进行了研究,在衰减模型中考虑了地震动的近场距离饱和与震级饱和特性。研究结果表明,考虑震级和距离的随机性后,地震动的距离与震级标定系数比常规方法增大16—28％,大震的地震动估计值及小震近场的地震动估计值均高于用常规方法得到的结果;高频地震动具有明显的近场距离与震级饱和特性,且距离饱和范围随震级的增大而加宽;场地条件对地震动衰减规律有明显影响,同时这一影响又同距离和震级密切相关。本文预测结果与新近发生的三大地震(M_s=8.1,7.8,7.1)的观测资料很吻合。     

江苏及邻区地震动衰减关系研究

基于2006—2015年江苏省强震动台网记录到的大量强震动数据,根据近场距离饱和的加速度经验衰减模型,利用多随机变量回归分析方法、最小二乘法拟合确定出经验衰减关系模型中的各个系数,获取了江苏及邻区中小地震的地震动参数衰减关系。以2012年7月20日江苏高邮M4.9地震为例,结合新求取的地震动衰减关系计算其震源区的地震动加速度场,结果显示:相比于直接采用内插值方法的分布结果,采用衰减关系校正后的结果所显示的地震动加速度场的连续性分布特征更为明显,加速度场长轴走向更接近于实际调查得到的地震烈度分布。     

为新区划图编制所建立的地震动衰减关系

介绍了建立新一代地震区划图所采用的地震动参数衰减关系的总体思路,并从资料、衰减关系分区、衰减关系模型、回归方法、转换等方面说明了地震动参数衰减关系的建立过程,给出了我国分区地震烈度和地震动参数衰减关系结果。新的地震动衰减关系的建立,具有如下特点:一是基于更加丰富可靠的强震记录和烈度资料;二是采用了具有大震近场饱和特征的地震动衰减模型;三是采用了使结果更加稳定的分步回归方法;四是在地震动衰减关系分区时考虑了地震活动性特征。与第四代地震区划图衰减关系相比,由于地震动衰减模型的变化和高震级强震记录的增加,高震级下的峰值加速度有所降低,而中强地震区的峰值加速度则在低震级时有所提高。     

2013年7月22日岷县漳县6.6级地震强震记录及特征分析

2013年7月22日甘肃省定西市岷县漳县交界发生6.6级地震,国家强震动台网在甘肃、四川和陕西的64台强震仪触发并获得了主震加速度记录。本文对强震动记录进行了常规处理,统计了强震动记录数量随震中距的分布,绘制了空间地震动加速度等值线图;通过观测数据与霍俊荣和意大利新一代地震动衰减公式对比,分析了峰值加速度(PGA)及谱加速度衰减关系,发现此次地震观测数值远低于常用地震动预测值;利用渭河盆地的远场记录验证了远场地震动卓越周期变大的特点以及场地对记录的影响;参考岷县地区地质特点并通过分析宏观烈度及地震动的谱烈度,初步确定了地震震害与烈度的相关性。     

用有限强地震动记录校正等震线的估计研究

选用获得了加速度记录的2011年4月10日四川炉霍MS5.3及2011年8月11日新疆维吾尔自治区克孜勒尔自治州阿图什市与伽师县交界MS5.8地震,研究其快速生成震动图的偏差校正方法;通过台站实际观测值与借助经验性衰减关系估计值之间的残差分析,提出了利用台站数据对缺少台站地区借助经验性衰减关系估计值的对数偏差校正方法; 并比较了圆和椭圆衰减关系模型的对数残差及震动图的分布形态．结果表明, 适合于当地地震动衰减关系plusmn;3倍标准差的标准能够识别一些台站异常数据, 如炉霍MS5.3地震中炉霍地办强震台近场峰值加速度的高频脉冲引起的异常数据;对数偏差校正方法适合于地震动强度速报中缺少台站数据地区借助经验性衰减关系地震动参数估计值的系统偏差校正;圆衰减关系模型只能控制震动的程度,不能控制其分布形态．明确的地震震源机制、震源破裂过程、当地的地质构造背景及余震分布等信息有助于修正震动图的分布形态．      

2021年5月21日云南漾濞M6.4及相关地震强震动记录特征分析

对2021年5月21日云南漾濞M5.6、M6.4及M5.2地震中获取的120条强震动观测记录进行处理及分析,给出获取记录的地震动参数,绘制峰值加速度等值线分布图,发现其长轴均成NW-SE方向展布。将3次地震实际PGA观测值与俞言祥~([1])、汪素云~([2])地震动衰减关系进行对比,发现实际观测值与俞言祥预测值更吻合。对比分析典型台站的加速度反应谱,发现震级愈大,长周期分量愈明显;震级愈小,幅值衰减愈快。     

青藏高原东北地区水平向基岩加速度峰值与反应谱衰减关系.

首先建立了青藏高原东北地区的地震烈度衰减关系，然后以美国西部地区作为参考地区，在霍俊荣数据的基础上，增加了近年来得到的部分强震记录，采用反映高频地震动震级饱和与近场饱和特征的衰减关系模型，统计得到了美国西部地区水平向基岩加速度峰值与短周期反应谱衰减关系. 与用美国南加州数字宽频带记录建立的美国西部长周期加速度反应谱衰减关系结合，得到了美国西部周期0.04~6 s的反应谱衰减关系. 采用转换方法，得到了青藏高原东北地区水平向基岩加速度峰值与反应谱衰减关系.      

地震动峰值加速度衰减关系对中国西部地区的适用性分析

地震动参数衰减关系描述了地震动参数随震级和距离等因素的变化情况,选取合适的地震动衰减关系是地震危险性分析中确定工程场地地震动参数的关键环节。本文收集、整理和分析了中国西部地区2012年3月9日—2017年9月16日间发生的42次地震事件中获取的强震动记录资料,并选择了3个国际上基于不同地区强震动记录数据建立的地震动加速度衰减关系(ASB11、SCEMY97和LLCS11),开展了加速度衰减关系计算结果与中国西部强震动记录值的对比研究。比较了衰减关系峰值加速度的预测中值与实际记录值之间的差异,并分析了其残差随震级和距离的变化。得到了以下结论:①相比于SCEMY97和LLCS11,ASB11更适合于中国西部地区;②研究中国西部地区的衰减关系时,有必要考虑高频地震动的震级饱和现象。同时,对于如何修正已有衰减关系以使其更适合于中国西部地区给出了相应的建议。     

关于通过烈度资料估计地震动的研究

本文首先回顾了用烈度资料估计地震动参数衰减关系的现有方法,分析了其中存在的问题,进而提出地震烈度与地震动参数的更合理的转换模型。地震动衰减模型中采用了与震源体大小相关的近场距离饱和因子,使换算模型能体现与近场高烈度相应的地震动峰值的饱和特性。确定衰减关系时除了考虑地震动或烈度的不确定性之外,还包含了震级M和距离R的不确定性,烈度衰减关系的确定考虑了场地原始烈度点与等震线的差别,使参与换算的地震动和烈度均取自于同一地点。文中还对转换所得地震动衰减关系的方差进行了合理估计,换算结果的不确定性综合了参考地区用原始资料进行烈度与地震动换算的离散性和参考地区与研究地区烈度衰减规律不确定性的差异,使之与当前人们对地震动不确定性的认识水平相协调。新模型不受烈度和地震动参数衰减规律形式的限制。用新方法确定了华北、华南、西南、西北等四区的地震动幅值的衰减规律,并与华北、西南两区取得的少量强震记录进行了比较,结果甚为吻合。     

A modified light transmission visualization method for DNAPL saturation measurements in 2-D models

In this research, a light transmission visualization (LTV) method was used to quantify dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPL) saturation in two-dimensional (2-D), two fluid phase systems. The method is an expansion of earlier LTV methods and takes into account both absorption and refraction light theories. Based on this method, DNAPL and water saturations can rapidly be obtained point wise across sand-packed 2-D flow chambers without the need to develop a calibration curve. A single point calibration step is, however, needed when dyed DNAPL is used to account for the change in the transmission factor at the dyed DNAPL–water interface. The method was applied to measure, for the first time, undyed DNAPL saturation in small 2-D chambers. Known amounts of DNAPL, modeled by tetrachloroethylene (PCE), were added to the chamber and these amounts were compared to results obtained by this LTV method. Strong correlation existed between results obtained based on this method and the known PCE amounts with an R² value of 0.993. Similar experiments conducted using dyed PCE showed a stronger correlation between results obtained by this LTV method and the known amounts of dyed PCE added to the chamber with an R² value of 0.999. The method was also used to measure dyed PCE saturation in a large 2-D model following sparging experiments. Results obtained from image analyses following each sparging event were compared to results obtained by two independent techniques, namely gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC/MS) analyses and carbon column extraction. There was a good agreement between the results obtained by this LTV method and those obtained by the two independent techniques when experiments were carried out under stable light source conditions and errors in mass balance were minor. The method presented here can be expanded to measure fluid contents in three fluid phase systems and provide a non-destructive, non-intrusive tool to investigate changes in DNAPL architecture and flow characteristics in laboratory experiments.     

原状黄土的反压饱和法试验研究

含水量是黄土液化特性研究中的一个至关重要的参数,对原状黄土进行充分饱和是饱和黄土动三轴试验中一个不可回避的课题。以WF公司生产的WF12440型空心圆柱扭剪仪为实验平台,运用反压饱和法,对室内原状黄土进行了饱和试验研究。该仪器提供3种不同加压方式增加围压和反压（孔压）,即手动加压、自动加压和线性持续加压,通过检测孔隙压力系数B值是否达到0.95以上来判断黄土是否完全饱和。试验表明,即便是初始饱和度较低的原状黄土,也可以采用反压饱和法,在较短的时间内使孔压系数B值达到0.95以上,实现完全饱和,具体可以采用线性连续加压方式;初始压力差,即围压和反压之差一般可设为10 kPa,起始围压也设为10 kPa,太大或太小都会对试样造成破坏;如果孔压在1分钟内的变化值小于围压和反压之间压力差的5%,则认为孔压稳定,即可进行B值检测。     

九江台震级偏差讨论与校正

通过选取大量震例,分析了九江台所产生的震级偏差的可能原因,并提出了校正意见。     

Pore fluid viscosity effects on P‐ and S‐wave anisotropy in synthetic silica‐cemented sandstone with aligned fractures

Ultrasonic (500 kHz) P‐ and S‐wave velocity and attenuation anisotropy were measured in the laboratory on synthetic, octagonal‐shaped, silica‐cemented sandstone samples with aligned penny‐shaped voids as a function of pore fluid viscosity. One control (blank) sample was manufactured without fractures, another sample with a known fracture density (measured from X‐ray CT images). Velocity and attenuation were measured in four directions relative to the bedding fabric (introduced during packing of successive layers of sand grains during sample construction) and the coincident penny‐shaped voids (fractures). Both samples were measured when saturated with air, water (viscosity 1 cP) and glycerin (100 cP) to reveal poro‐visco‐elastic effects on velocity and attenuation, and their anisotropy. The blank sample was used to estimate the background anisotropy of the host rock in the fractured sample; the bedding fabric was found to show transverse isotropy with shear wave splitting (SWS) of 1.45 ± 1.18% (i.e. for S‐wave propagation along the bedding planes). In the fractured rock, maximum velocity and minimum attenuation of P‐waves was seen at 90° to the fracture normal. After correction for the background anisotropy, the fractured sample velocity anisotropy was expressed in terms of Thomsen's weak anisotropy parameters ε, γ & δ. A theory of frequency‐dependent seismic anisotropy in porous, fractured, media was able to predict the observed effect of viscosity and bulk modulus on ε and δ in water‐ and glycerin‐saturated samples, and the higher ε and δ values in air‐saturated samples. Theoretical predictions of fluid independent γ are also in agreement with the laboratory observations. We also observed the predicted polarisation cross‐over in shear‐wave splitting for wave propagation at 45° to the fracture normal as fluid viscosity and bulk modulus increases.     

Three-phase measurements of oil and gas trapping in sand packs

We measure the trapped saturations of oil and gas as a function of initial saturation in water-wet sand packs. We start with a water-saturated column and inject octane (oil), while water and oil are produced from the bottom. Once water production has ceased, air (gas) then enters from the top, allowing oil and gas to drain under gravity for different times. Finally water is then injected from the bottom to trap both oil and gas. The columns are sliced and the fluids analyzed using gas chromatography. We find that for high initial gas saturations more gas can be trapped in the presence of oil than in a two-phase (gas/water) system. The residual gas saturation can be over 20% compared to 14% in two-phase flow [Al Mansoori SK, Iglauer S, Pentland CH, Bijeljic B, Blunt MJ. Measurements of non-wetting phase trapping applied to carbon dioxide storage. Energy Procedia 2009;1(1):3173–80]. This is unlike previous measurements on consolidated media, where the trapped gas saturation is either similar or lower to that reached in an equivalent two-phase experiment. For lower initial gas saturation, the amount of trapping follows the initial-residual trend seen in two-phase experiments. The amount of oil trapped is insensitive to initial gas saturation or the amount of gas that is trapped, again in contrast to measurements on consolidated media. More oil is trapped than would be predicted from an equivalent two-phase (oil/water) system, although the trapped saturation is never larger than the maximum reached in two-phase flow (around 11%) [Pentland CH, Al Mansoori SK, Iglauer S, Bijeljic B, Blunt MJ. Measurement of non-wetting phase trapping in sand packs. In: SPE 115697, proceedings of the SPE annual technical conference and exhibition, Denver, Colorado, USA; 21–24 September 2008]. These initially surprising results are explained in the context of oil layer stability and the competition between snap-off and piston-like advance. In two-phase systems, displacement is principally by cooperative piston-like advance with relatively little trapping, whereas in consolidated media snap-off is generally more significant. However, oil layer collapse events during three-phase waterflooding rapidly trap the oil which acts as a barrier to direct water/gas displacement, except by snap-off, leading to enhanced gas trapping.     

一种基于能量的振动主动控制新方法

为了防止控制过程中作动器出现饱和现象,本文提出了一种基于能量的新的振动主动控制策略。该方法是通过比较容许能量与实际能量来确定结构控制力的大小,而其方向是通过对能量求导确定。由于不需要求解线性矩阵不等式,所以计算简单,操作方便。并且当采用同样容量限的多个作动器时,控制输出力一致,从而避免设计多个控制系统,简化了控制器设计。此外,由于采用阶跃控制,控制系统便于实现。最后,以六层建筑物为例来说明本文方法的可行性。     

Effect of sub‐core scale heterogeneities on acoustic and electrical properties of a reservoir rock: a CO2 flooding experiment of brine saturated sandstone in a computed tomography scanner

The effect of sub‐core scale heterogeneity on fluid distribution pattern, and the electrical and acoustic properties of a typical reservoir rock was studied by performing drainage and imbibition flooding tests with CO₂ and brine in a laboratory. Moderately layered Rothbach sandstone was used as a test specimen. Two core samples were drilled; one perpendicular and the other parallel to the layering to allow injection of fluids along and normal to the bedding plane. During the test 3D images of fluid distribution and saturation levels were mapped by an industrial X‐ray CT‐scanner together with simultaneous measurement of electrical resistivity, ultrasonic velocities as well as amplitudes. The results showed how the layering and the flooding direction influenced the fluid distribution pattern and the saturation level of the fluids. For a given fluid saturation level, the measured changes in the acoustic and electrical parameters were affected by both the fluid distribution pattern and the layering orientation relative to the measurement direction. The P‐wave amplitude and the electrical resistivity were more sensitive to small changes in the fluid distribution patterns than the P‐wave velocity. The change in amplitude was the most affected by the orientation of the layering and the resulting fluid distribution patterns. In some instances the change due to the fluid distribution pattern was higher than the variation caused by the change in CO₂ saturation. As a result the Gassmann relation based on ‘uniform' or ‘patchy' saturation pattern was not suitable to predict the P‐wave velocity variation. Overall, the results demonstrate the importance of core‐imaging to improve our understanding of fluid distribution patterns and the associated effects on measured rock‐physics properties.     

Solar–terrestrial effects possibly stronger in biblical times

Paleomagnetic studies have shown that, moving backwards in time, the geomagnetic dipole moment increased to a peak nearly 50% greater than at present ca. 2500 years ago. Attempts to model how changes in dipole moment affect solar–terrestrial relations have hitherto invoked a scaling relation for the size of the magnetosphere based on finding where the magnetic pressure of the dipole field balances the ram pressure of the solar wind. This approach predicts that, following a solar storm, the strength of the terrestrial response represented by the electrical potential across the auroral zones in the ionosphere should vary as the 1/3 power of dipole moment. Such a weak dependence suggests that a 50% increase in dipole moment would minimally effect (14%) terrestrial manifestations of solar storms. Recent work, however, based on a feedback mechanism involving electrical currents coupling the magnetosphere and ionosphere has identified a stronger 4/3, power scaling relation applicable to storm conditions. Here we use a global MHD simulation to calculate for a 50% increased dipole moment the correspondingly increased auroral-zone potential and its extension to low latitudes.     

Effects of pore fluids on quasi-static shear modulus caused by pore-scale interfacial phenomena

It is evident from the laboratory experiments that shear moduli of different porous isotropic rocks may show softening behaviour upon saturation. The shear softening means that the shear modulus of dry samples is higher than of saturated samples. Shear softening was observed both at low (seismic) frequencies and high (ultrasonic) frequencies. Shear softening is stronger at seismic frequencies than at ultrasonic frequencies, where the softening is compensated by hardening due to unrelaxed squirt flow. It contradicts to Gassmann's theory suggesting that the relaxed shear modulus of isotropic rock should not depend upon fluid saturation, provided that no chemical reaction between the solid frame and the pore fluid. Several researchers demonstrated that the shear softening effect is reversible during re-saturation of rock samples, suggesting no permanent chemical reaction between the solid frame and the pore fluid. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to explain this fluid–rock interaction mechanism theoretically, because it does not contradict to the assumptions of Gassmann's theory, but contradicts to its conclusions. We argue that the observed shear softening of partially saturated rocks by different pore fluids is related to pore-scale interfacial phenomena effects, typically neglected by the rock physics models. These interface phenomena effects are dependent on surface tension between immiscible fluids, rock wettability, aperture distribution of microcracks, compressibility of microcracks, porosity of microcracks, elastic properties of rock mineral, fluid saturation, effective stress and wave amplitude. Derived equations allow to estimate effects of pore fluids and saturation on the shear modulus and mechanical strength of rocks.     

Monitoring fluid substitution in rock samples from noise correlation

An alternative laboratory technique to measure the elastic constants of solid samples, based on the analysis of the cross‐correlation spectra of the vibratory response of randomly excited short solid cylinders, has been recently proposed. The aim of this paper is to check the ability of the technique called passive ultrasonic interferometry to monitor fluid substitution in different rock samples. Velocity variations due to fluid substitution are easily measured if the wave attenuation in the fluid‐saturated rock is not too large (typically in rocks with few cracks or microfractures). The experimental results are in agreement with the predictions of Biot–Gassmann poroelastic theory. The effect of substituting water with a stiffer saturating fluid, such as ethylene glycol, is to increase the overall bulk modulus of the rock, without any substantial effect on shear modulus. Furthermore, the experimental results compare well with those obtained independently with conventional pulse‐transmission technique using ultrasonic transducers. However, the measured pulse‐transmission bulk moduli are slightly larger than the corresponding measured ultrasonic interferometry moduli, with the deviation increasing with increasing fluid viscosity. This can be explained by dispersion due to wave‐induced flow of the viscous fluid since pulse‐transmission experiments involve higher frequencies than ultrasonic interferometry experiments.