单体滑坡灾害财产风险定量评估模型

目前承灾体易损性评估尚处于经验评估阶段,制约了单体滑坡灾害财产风险评估的定量化程度。为此,针对典型承灾体（建筑结构物）,提出一种单体滑坡灾害财产风险评估模型。认为财产风险是坡体失稳概率、承灾体在滑坡作用下的失效概率以及承灾体价值的乘积。避开了易损性评估,从一个新的角度来评估滑坡灾害财产风险。通过研究,验证了该模型正确反映了滑坡成灾过程中各种因素对财产风险的影响,从而为单体滑坡灾害财产风险的定量化评估提供了新的途径。另外以该模型应用研究为基础,提出承灾体安全范围的概念,对于每一个承灾体而言,将单体滑坡灾害影响范围划分为：危险区域、相对危险区域和安全区域,为建设工程选址或场地风险评估提供了实用指标,具有一定的工程实用价值。     

陕西陇县李家下滑坡风险评价

在野外勘查及室内实验的基础上,应用滑坡风险评价方法,对李家下滑坡进行了较为完整的风险评价,包括滑坡失稳概率计算、承灾体承灾概率计算、承灾体易损性计算和承灾体价值核算,最后得出滑坡总风险值,并将风险值用价值的形式量化表示。     

陕西胥家村黄土滑坡风险定量分析

单体滑坡风险定量分析是风险评估的重要途径。为了探索单体滑坡风险定量评估方法,以陕西西安胥家村滑坡为例,在野外调查、室内分析测试和滑坡稳定性计算的基础上,利用可靠度方法,计算一般和强降雨2种工况条件下胥家村滑坡发生的概率;利用定量评价方法,分析各类承灾体在滑坡作用下的易损性;然后利用国际通用的单体滑坡风险计算公式,计算胥家村滑坡财产损失和人员伤亡的总风险值,定量评估滑坡的潜在威胁。研究表明,一般工况下,财产总风险为15.4万元,人员总风险为1.3人;强降雨工况下,胥家村滑坡的失稳概率成倍增加,相应的财产和人员风险也成倍增加,财产的总风险达到95.8万元,人员总风险为8.3人。     

邻近输电塔路堑边坡失稳风险定量评估及加固工程设计优化

基于路堑边坡风险评估及管理技术框架,以龙岩市永定大道K0+855～K1+085路堑边坡为例,开展边坡定量风险评估,对边坡开挖及加固两个典型工况的边坡破坏概率、灾害到达承灾体概率、承灾体时空概率、承灾体易损性、承灾体财产价值等关键参量进行分析及计算,从而实现了上述两个工况边坡潜在风险损失的定量估算和比较,验证了边坡加固工程实施的必要性和有效性。因公路拓宽方案变更需求,对该边坡提出多级锚固和抗滑桩两种优化设计方案,并同样实施了这两个方案的定量风险评估及对比分析,研究表明在边坡设计安全系数基本相当的条件下,多级锚固方案具有较低的破坏概率和较少的潜在财产损失,为优选变更方案。本文研究提出了一套完整的边坡定量风险评估技术方案,并例证了该技术方案可以在设计阶段预测边坡风险状态及估算潜在风险损失,体现了风险防控对策的科学性和前瞻性,实现从源头控制风险的目标。     

滑坡风险评估的难点和进展

近年来,国内外滑坡研究日益重视滑坡风险评估和管理技术方法的研究,但滑坡风险评估依然是存在很多问题和难点,尤其是在中等—大比例尺区域滑坡风险定量评估方面,主要表现在滑坡编录数据库建设、滑坡影响因素的识别和建模、滑坡时间、空间预测的不确定性,滑坡诱发因素动态变化的定量刻画,承灾体识别和易损性定量评价等方面。在阐述滑坡风险评估流程的基础上,围绕滑坡风险评估与制图中滑坡编录和基础数据获取与更新,危险性分析中的滑坡空间、时间概率和滑坡特征预测、损失评估中的易损性分析与定量和承灾体定量化制图等技术方法中的难点和存在的问题,概述针对这些问题所取得的研究进展,并指出了滑坡风险研究的技术发展趋势。     

基于蒙特卡罗法的多级黄土滑坡可靠性分析

滑坡稳定性分析目前工程中一般采用极限平衡算法。为了确定滑坡的稳定性系数,在计算过程中要将岩土体、计算模型简化,忽略一些影响滑坡稳定的次要因素,把影响滑坡稳定的各种主要因素作为确定参数。由于滑坡岩土体本身的非均质性及其参数确定具有随机性和变异性,用唯一的稳定系数不能客观地反映整个滑坡的真实安全程度。以陕西省夏呀河滑坡为例,通过野外详细调查、工程勘探和室内土工试验,初步确定该滑坡存在四级滑动面,难以用简单的单一滑动面计算其稳定性。因此,先采用推力传递系数法对滑坡体上的四级滑坡分别进行滑坡稳定性计算,得到该滑坡体上的四级滑坡稳定系数。再采用蒙特卡罗法对该四级滑坡进行可靠性分析,得到其可靠度,定量地表达夏呀河四级滑坡的安全程度。同时对比分析夏呀河四级滑坡的稳定系数和失稳概率,综合评价该滑坡体上的四级滑坡的稳定性及其风险概率,为滑坡的工程治理及预测预警、灾害危险性评价提供依据。     

滑坡灾害风险评价的关键理论与技术方法

滑坡灾害风险评估主要包括滑坡敏感性分析、危险性评价和风险评估3个不同层次的内容。但是,滑坡地质灾害本身的复杂性和滑坡强度的确定、滑坡发生的时空概率估算、承灾体的易损性时空概率分析等难点问题的存在,无疑阻碍了滑坡风险定量评估的推广和应用。在系统分析国内外滑坡灾害风险评估研究成果的基础上,对滑坡灾害风险评价的技术体系进行了总结,提出了不同层次滑坡灾害的研究内容和相应的评价方法;分析了实现滑坡风险有效评价涉及到的难点问题,并结合降雨和地震诱发的滑坡灾害危险性评价国内外的实践,提出了中国未来滑坡灾害风险评价研究的主要内容和技术方法。     

降雨型滑坡定量风险评价研究——以宣恩县干坝滑坡为例

单体滑坡定量风险评价一直是滑坡研究领域的重点及难点,特别是滑坡危险程度和易损性的确定。本文以湖北宣恩县干坝滑坡为例,进行降雨型滑坡定量风险评价研究;在降雨极值分析的基础上,计算不同降雨重现期下滑坡渗流场和稳定性变化规律;在滑坡影响范围分析的基础上,采用定性方法确定不同区域承灾体的易损性,定量分析不同降雨重现期下逐个建筑物和室内人员风险,通过建立人口和财产总风险与年超越概率关系曲线计算滑坡年风险;通过三维数字模型展示建筑物和室内人员在不同降雨工况下的风险,利于主管部门对单体滑坡的风险管控。     

承灾体易损性评估模型与滑坡灾害风险度指标

承灾体易损性定量评估是制约滑坡灾害风险评估研究的瓶颈问题。为此,以滑坡体冲击冲量为致灾强度指标、建筑物整体抗剪力为抗灾性能指标,推导出典型承灾体易损性定量评估模型。在此基础上,考虑滑体运动特征参数随机性对易损性的影响,提出风险曲线和最大风险度指标的概念,以反映滑坡灾害成灾全过程中不确定性对灾害后果的影响。并采用该模型分析了坡体几何特征参数、受灾体空间位置以及受灾体抗灾性能对易损性的影响规律。将风险度指标应用于算例分析,并与以往方法进行了比较,分析发现,建立的易损性定量评估模型可以反映二维简化情况下受灾体毁损程度与各种影响因素之间关系的基本规律,为易损性定量评估提供了一种途径。     

我国县域单元地质灾害风险评估

文中地质灾害包括崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、地面塌陷四类突发性地质灾害。采用地质灾害危险性与承灾体易损性分项测算,定性综合评估的方式实现我国县域单元地质灾害风险评估。将承灾体易损性分为人口安全易损性与资产易损性,用因灾死亡人口比与因灾直接经济损失比表征。基于以历史数据分析指导未来预测的思想,以国土资源部2001—2015年地质灾害灾情数据为样本,提出了人口安全易损性与资产易损性的分级标准。对我国2869个县域单元进行地质灾害风险评价,结果表明共有216个地质灾害高风险单元、643个中风险单元和2010个低风险单元。地质灾害高风险区集中分布于乌蒙山区、四川盆地周边山区以及云南西部和西藏东南部。     

Wavelength-dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometric determination of Sc, V, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Rb, Sr, Y, Zr, Nb, Ba, Pb, and Th in komatiites

Komatiites are mantle-derived ultramafic volcanic rocks. Komatiites have been discovered in several States of India, notably in Karnataka. Studies on the distribution of trace-elements in the komatiites of India are very few. This paper proposes a simple, accurate, precise, rapid, and non-destructive wavelength-dispersive x-ray fluorescence (WDXRF) spectrometric technique for determining Sc, V, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Rb, Sr, Y, Zr, Nb, Ba, Pb, and Th in komatiites, and discusses the accuracy, precision, limits of detection, x-ray spectral-line interferences, inter-element effects, speed, advantages, and limitations of the technique. The accuracy of the technique is excellent (within 3%) for Sc, V, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Rb, Sr, Zr, Nb, Ba, Pb, and Th and very good (within 4%) for Y. The precision is also excellent (within 3%) for Sc, V, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Rb, Sr, Y, Zr, Nb, Ba, Pb, and Th. The limits of detection are: 1 ppm for Sc and V; 2 ppm for Cr, Co, and Ni; 3 ppm for Cu, Zn, Rb, and Sr; 4 ppm for Y and Zr; 6 ppm for Nb; 10 ppm for Ba; 13 ppm for Pb; and 14 ppm for Th. The time taken for determining Sc, V, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Rb, Sr, Y, Zr, Nb, Ba, Pb, and Th in a batch of 24 samples of komatiites, for a replication of four analyses per sample, by one operator, using a manual WDXRF spectrometer, is only 60 hours.     

硅酸盐类样品中硅、铁、铝、钛、锰、钙、镁、钾、钠和磷的x射线荧光光谱测定

本文拟定了一种以熔融法制备样片,用X射线荧光光谱测定硅酸盐类样品中Si、Fe、Al、Tj、Mn、Ca、Mg、K、Na、P等元素的分析方法。在对不同靶材X光管和分光晶体实验对比的基础上,选择了最佳的测量条件。该法具有快速、准确,测量范围广,检测限低,价格便宜等优点。经过近百个各种类型标样或管理样品的分析对比表明,本法不仅适用于硅酸盐类岩石样品的分析,还适用于铁矿、铝土矿、碳酸盐类岩矿样品以及水泥、耐火材料等样品的分析。     

高压微波消解法测定醋酸纤维过滤器采集的微尘粒子中的砷镉钴铬铜铁锰镍铅钒锌

最新的流行病学研究表明,空气中较高浓度的悬浮细颗粒可能对人类的健康有不利的影响。根据该项研究显示,由于心脏病、慢性呼吸问题和肺功能指标恶化而导致死亡率的升高与细尘粒子有关。这些研究结果已经促使欧盟于1999年4月出台了限制空气中二氧化硫、二氧化氮、氧化氮、铅和颗粒物含量的法案(1999/30/EC),对各项指标包括对可吸入PM10颗粒的浓度提出了新的限制性指标。PM10颗粒是指可以通过预分级器分离采集的气体动力学直径小于10μm的细颗粒。目前研究的兴趣重点逐步偏向PM2.5这些更细微颗粒物,PM2.5这种颗粒物对健康有明显的不利影响。在欧盟指令2008/50/EC中,对PM10和PM2.5都提     

Isotopic systematics of He,Ar, S,Cu, Ni,Re, Os,Pb, U,Sm, Nd,Rb, Sr,Lu, and Hf in the rocks and ores of the Norilsk deposits

This paper reports the first results of a study of 11 isotope systems (³He/⁴He, ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar, ³⁴S/³²S, ⁶⁵Cu/⁶³Cu, ⁶²Ni/⁶⁰Ni, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd, ^206–208Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, Hf–Nd, U–Pb, and Re–Os) in the rocks and ores of the Cu–Ni–PGE deposits of the Norilsk ore district. Almost all the results were obtained at the Center of Isotopic Research of the Karpinskii All-Russia Research Institute of Geology. The use of a number of independent genetic isotopic signatures and comprehensive isotopic knowledge provided a methodic basis for the interpretation of approximately 5000 isotopic analyses of various elements. The presence of materials from two sources, crust and mantle, was detected in the composition of the rocks and ores. The contribution of the crustal source is especially significant in the paleofluids (gas–liquid microinclusions) of the ore-forming medium. Crustal solutions were probably a transport medium during ore formation. Air argon is dominant in the ores, which indicates a connection between the paleofluids and the atmosphere. This suggests intense groundwater circulation during the crystallization of ore minerals. The age of the rocks and ores of the Norilsk deposits was determined. The stage of orebody formation is restricted to a narrow age interval of 250 ± 10 Ma. An isotopic criterion was proposed for the ore-bearing potential of mafic intrusions in the Norilsk–Taimyr region. It includes several interrelated isotopic ratios of various elements: He, Ar, S, and others.     

Viscous, cohesive, non-Newtonian, depositing, radial slurry flow

Mining induced subsidence can significantly affect mining costs where major surface facilities and natural environment need to be protected. Overburden grout injection is a technology used to control coal mine subsidence by injecting the mine waste material extracted from the coal back into the inter-burden rock during longwall mining. The flowing slurry is here categorised as a nonlinear viscous cohesive (Bingham plastic) fluid. During longwall mining the grout slurry is pumped into the separated beds of the rock mass through a central vertical borehole, which is drilled deep into the inter-burden rock strata above the coal seam. However, a blockage can occur in the injection system when the slurry velocity falls below a certain critical threshold velocity, indicating a material phase change from cohesive-viscous to cohesive-frictional. In situ field injection tests through boreholes have been simulated at a smaller scale at the CSIRO laboratory in Brisbane by pumping the slurry through a radial disk (gap = 4 mm) from its centre. Laboratory experiments indicate a general, nonlinear, cohesive, viscous, frictional model for shear behaviour of the slurry, in which the material shear parameters are functions of the disk radial distance. Complete dimensional and dimensionless analytical solutions have been developed based on an approach related to Bingham–Herschel–Bulkley fluid mechanics. The derived formulae include relations for minimum pump pressure, local pressure and pressure gradient, wall shear stress, volume rate, velocity and velocity gradient. The theoretical results match the experimental measurements. The experiments covered slurries with maximum particle sizes of 0.5 to 2 mm with about 50% being larger than 100 µm. The viscosities at the various solids concentrations were measured with a standard torsion viscometer. This study differs from the previous research in several distinct aspects, namely, consideration of the variable shear parameters rather than fixed values, inclusion of total nonlinear behaviour, and implementation of a friction function to mimic behaviour of the deposited and consolidating stiff slurry, which can cause a significant pressure rise as a result of the increased shear resistance.     

硅酸盐中铁、锰、钛、钙、钾、磷、硅、铝、镁、钠、锶、铷、钡的X-射线荧光光谱定量测定

本文介绍样品经四硼酸锂熔融制成玻璃小饼。采用Lachance模式和理论a系数来校正元素间的效应,由3080E型X-射线荧光谱仪和DF-350B数据处理系统完成硅酸盐中十三个项目的测定。     

岩石密度和超高压岩石折返速率

在常温常压条件下对中国大陆科学钻CCSD主孔100-3000米岩心样品进行了密度测量,建立了密度连续剖面,并界定了不同超高压岩石的密度值。通过对比高温高压物性实验资料,岩石密度随着退变程度增强而降低,榴辉岩密度变化序列为3.52g/cm3→3.49g/cm3→3.07g/cm3→2.93g/cm3。超高压长英质岩石密度变化序列为3.00g/cm→2.80g/cm3→2.65g/cm3。上述实验资料是讨论不同折返阶段岩石所受浮力的基础,为研究折返速率大小提供了基本参数。本文通过折返板块运动平衡时,上浮力与粘滞力平衡这一关系式,定量研究了大陆俯冲板块的折返速率,认为密度差产生上浮力从而引起折返,温度对板块折返速率的影响最为显著;密度差大小、折返角度、折返板块大小对折返速率也有直接的影响。定量模拟分析表明,在温度高于850℃时,板块的折返速率可以超过100mm/a;当温度降至700℃时,折返速率则低于1.5mm/a。作者认为在折返早期,温度较高,板块快速折返至60-70km榴辉岩相深度;随着传导散热,温度降低,板块以较慢的速率折返至中下地壳。折返速率的估算表明,浮力是板块折返第一阶段(从>100km深部折返至<40km的中下地壳)的主要驱动力。     

Bellechester,Minnesota, USA,lagoon collapses

Bellechester, Minnesota, is a small community of approximately 155 residents located on the county line between Goodhue and Wabasha counties in southeast Minnesota's karst region. Bellechester is served by a 21-year-old wastewater treatment facility (WWTF) consisting of three waste-stabilization ponds. On 28 April 1992 six sinkholes were discovered to have drained cell 2 of the WWTF resulting in the loss of approximately 8.7×10⁶ 1 of partially treated effluent and about 600 m³ of soil into previously undetected subsurface voids of unknown dimensions. In the week following the collapse, approximately 200 water wells located within a 5-km radius of the WWTF were sampled in an after-the-fact, emergency sampling program. Twelve samples with elevated fecal coliform levels, 18 samples with nitrate-nitrogen greater than the 10 mg/1 standard, and no samples with elevated chlorides were found. However, the elevated levels could not be unambiguously attributed to the WWTF collapse. This is the third WWTF to fail by sinkhole collapse in southeast Minnesota since 1974. All three collapsed lagoons have been located in similar geomorphic and stratigraphic settings. However, at least two lagoons have collapsed in the adjacent area in northeast Iowa, and these lagoons are located at different stratigraphic positions. Twenty-two WWTFs constructed in southeast Minnesota's karst region in the last 25 years have been identified as subject to potential sinkhole collapse. An unknown but significant number of manure storage lagoons, flood control structures, etc., have also been constructed in the karst region and are at risk. Public agencies are beginning to develop plans to deal with the risk associated with existing and future waste lagoons in this environment. The critical hydrogeologic parameters that can be used to prioritize the risk of collapse at existing facilities include: (1) the lithology of the first bedrock beneath each lagoon, (2) the thickness of surficial materials between the lagoon and the bedrock surface, (3) the presence and construction of liners (seepage rate), and (4) the proximity to existing sinkholes.     

滇东南花岗岩与锡、银、铜、铅、锌多金属矿床的成因关系

滇东南锡、银、铅、锌多金属矿床主要分布在个旧、白牛厂、都龙3个矿区,而滇东南较大的3个花岗岩体又分别出露在3个矿区或附近.花岗岩体均形成于燕山晚期,岩石化学、矿物成分相似,富含锡、银、铅、锌、钨、铜等成矿元素.矿床主金属元素组合与岩体之间的距离由远而近出现由锡、钨、(铍、铌、钽)→锡、钨、(铁)、铜、铟→锡、铅、锌、银、铟、(锑)有规律的变化.花岗岩浆是成矿物质来源和成矿热源.岩浆侵入初期使上覆地层隆起产生背斜(凹陷部位成向斜);同时使地层产生一系列裂隙、压性断层或层间断裂;岩浆侵入晚期,这些断层再次活动,表现为张性,岩浆产生的含矿热液沿由其活动所造成的断裂迁移、充填、交代、沉淀而形成矿床.     

Mercury,arsenic, antimony,and selenium contents of sediment from the Kuskokwim River,Bethel, Alaska,USA

The Kuskokwim River at Bethel, Alaska, drains a major mercury-antimony metallogenic province in its upper reaches and tributaries. Bethel (population 4000) is situated on the Kuskokwim floodplain and also draws its water supply from wells located in river-deposited sediment. A boring through overbank and floodplain sediment has provided material to establish a baseline datum for sediment-hosted heavy metals. Mercury (total), arsenic, antimony, and selenium contents were determined; aluminum was also determined and used as normalizing factor. The contents of the heavy metals were relatively constant with depth and do not reflect any potential enrichment from upstream contaminant sources.