On the Formation of an Elevated Nocturnal Inversion Layer in the Presence of a Low-Level Jet: A Case Study

We report on observed nocturnal profiles, in which an inversion layer is located at the core of a low-level jet, bounded between two well-mixed layers. High-resolution vertical profiles were collected during a field campaign in a small plain in the Israeli desert (Negev), distant 100 km from the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea. During the evening hours, the synoptic flow, superposed on the late sea breeze, forms a low-level jet characterized by a maximum wind speed of 12 m s ⁻¹ at an altitude of 150 m above the ground. The strong wind shear at the jet maximum generates downward heat fluxes that act against the nocturnal ground cooling. As a result, the typical ground-based nocturnal inversion is “elevated” towards the jet centre, hence a typical early morning thermal profile is observed a few hours after sunset. Since the jet is advected into the region, its formation does not depend on the presence of a surface nocturnal inversion layer to decouple the jet from surface friction. On the contrary, here the advected low-level jet acts to hinder the formation of such an inversion. These unusual temperature and wind profiles are expected to affect near-ground dispersion processes.     

Climate Change: A Case Study Over India

Summary A brief account of various causes of climate change in recent decades and climate change trends in the Indian region is presented. It is of great importance to determine the influence of human activities on the likely climate change during recent decades. Local temperature is one of the major climatic elements to record the changes in the atmospheric environment caused by industrialization and urbanization. It is mentioned in the literature that there is either a cooling tendency or cessation of warming after the late 1950s at most of the Indian industrial cities. A case study of Nagpur, a centrally located city in India, is done to understand and the possible cause of cooling. Nagpur is the only city in India for which a long-term record of temperature, for urban (Mayo Hospital) and relatively suburban (Sonegaon Airport) area, is available. The study of the diurnal asymmetry in maximum and minimum temperatures indicates that the role of suspended particulate matter dominates over that of increasing greenhouse gases. Received April 15, 1998     

热带东风喷射气流之天气学研究

根据台湾省及东南亚地区高空天气图资料及探空资料，分析东风喷射气流之平均位置和特性，并就青藏高原、副热带西风喷射气流和东风喷射气流之关系，讨论东风喷射气流之成因以及对北半球天气和气候之影响，东风喷射气流之南北两侧存在着极强烈的混切现象，这种温切现象不但与东风喷射气流有关，而且对高空民航机之飞航安全有极重大的影响。     

国家级格点化定量降水预报系统

2020年7月18—19日,江淮地区出现一次特大暴雨过程,欧洲中期天气预报中心全球确定性预报模式（以下简称EC模式）、华东区域数值模式（以下简称华东模式）和国家气象中心Grapes高分辨区域模式（3 km分辨率,以下简称G3模式）预报的暴雨落区均明显偏北,且降水强度偏弱。通过对模式的风场及降水预报进行检验发现：模式天气形势预报的优劣,很多时候与模式的降水预报优劣是直接相关的,尤其是天气形势中的中低层风场,很容易受模式中降水潜热反馈过程的影响,导致错误的预报订正指引;比较而言,模式预报的高层流场,受潜热反馈过程影响较小,是值得在天气分析环节中加以重视的预报着眼点;此外,对于由中小尺度天气系统传播所致的大暴雨或特大暴雨,分辨率更高的区域模式预报结果可能具有更好的预报参考性,也是今后类似暴雨预报过程中应该重视的着眼点之一。

     

On the Turbulence in the Upper Part of the Low-Level Jet: An Experimental and Numerical Study

The characteristics of low-level jets (LLJ) observed at the “Centro de Investigacion de la Baja Atmósfera” (CIBA) site in Spain are analysed, focussing on the turbulence generated in the upper part of the jet, a feature that is still to be thoroughly understood. During the Stable Boundary Layer Experiment in Spain (SABLES) 1998, captive balloon soundings were taken intensively, and their analyses have highlighted the main characteristics of the jet’s wind and temperature structure, leading to a composite profile. There are indications that the turbulence has a minimum at the level of the wind maximum, with elevated turbulence in a layer at a height between two and three times that of the LLJ maximum, but no direct measurements of turbulence were available at these heights. In September 2001, a 100-m tower at the same site was re-instrumented to give turbulence measurements up to 96.6 m above ground level. All occurrences of LLJ below this height between September 2002 and June 2003 have been selected and significant turbulence above the LLJ has been found. Simulations with a single-column turbulence kinetic energy model have been made in order to further investigate the generation of elevated turbulence. The results correlate well with the measurements, showing that in the layer above the LLJ, where there is significant shear and weakly stable stratification, conditions are conducive to the development of turbulence.     

Mechanism Study of Tropical Cyclone Impact on East Asian Subtropical Upper-Level Jet: a Numerical Case Investigation

In the case study of this paper, sensitivity experiments are carried out using the mesoscale non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate the impact of tropical cyclone (TC) Soudelor (2003) on the East Asian subtropical upper-level jet (EASJ) before TC Soudelor transformed into an extratropical cyclone. The physical mechanism for changes in the EASJ intensity and position caused by TC Soudelor is explored. Results indicate that TC Soudelor would warm the air in the middle and upper troposphere over the Japan Sea and the adjacent areas through stimulating northward propagating teleconnection pattern as well as releasing large amounts of latent heat, which led to increase (decrease) the meridional air temperature gradient to the south (north) below the EASJ axis. As a result, the geopotential height abnormally increased in the upper troposphere, resulting in an anomalous anticyclonic circulation belt along the EASJ axis. Correspondingly, the westerly winds to the north (south) of the EASJ axis intensified (weakened) and the EASJ axis shifted northward by one degree. The case study also suggests that before the extratropical cyclone transition of TC Soudelor, the TC activities had exerted significant impacts on the EASJ through thermodynamic processes.     

On the Effect of a Low-level Jet on Atmospheric Pollutant Dispersion: A Case Study Over a Coastal Complex Domain,Employing High-Resolution Modelling

Boundary-Layer Meteorology - A low-level-jet (LLJ) event that occurred over a coastal area in complex terrain is analyzed to investigate its effect on the dispersion of potential air pollutants...     

Variability of the Caribbean Low-Level Jet and its relations to climate

A maximum of easterly zonal wind at 925 hPa in the Caribbean region is called the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ). Observations show that the easterly CLLJ varies semi-annually, with two maxima in the summer and winter and two minima in the fall and spring. Associated with the summertime strong CLLJ are a maximum of sea level pressure (SLP), a relative minimum of rainfall (the mid-summer drought), and a minimum of tropical cyclogenesis in July in the Caribbean Sea. It is found that both the meridional gradients of sea surface temperature (SST) and SLP show a semi-annual feature, consistent with the semi-annual variation of the CLLJ. The CLLJ anomalies vary with the Caribbean SLP anomalies that are connected to the variation of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH). In association with the cold (warm) Caribbean SST anomalies, the atmosphere shows the high (low) SLP anomalies near the Caribbean region that are consistent with the anomalously strong (weak) easterly CLLJ. The CLLJ is also remotely related to the SST anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic, reflecting that these SST variations affect the NASH. During the winter, warm (cold) SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific correspond to a weak (strong) easterly CLLJ. However, this relationship is reversed during the summer. This is because the effects of ENSO on the NASH are opposite during the winter and summer. The CLLJ varies in phase with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) since a strong (weak) NASH is associated with a strengthening (weakening) of both the CLLJ and the NAO. The CLLJ is positively correlated with the 925-hPa meridional wind anomalies from the ocean to the United States via the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, the CLLJ and the meridional wind carry moisture from the ocean to the central United States, usually resulting in an opposite (or dipole) rainfall pattern in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Atlantic warm pool versus the central United States.     

一次大范围强对流天气的中尺度分析

运用１小时间隔的数字红外云图和常规气象资料，分析了１９９２年４月２０－２２日造成我国中南部地区一次较大范围强风雹天气中的中尺度对流系统活动，展示了卫星资料与常规气象资料相结合，中尺度天气分析和临近预报中的潜力。     

A Case Study on the Effects of Heterogeneous Soil Moisture on Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Structure in the Southern Great Plains, U.S.A. Part II: Mesoscale Modelling

The importance of soil moisture inputs and improved model physics in the prediction of the daytime boundary-layer structure during the Southern Great Plains Hydrology Experiment 1997 (SGP97) is investigated using the non-hydrostatic fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model MM5. This is Part II of a two-part study examining the relationship of surface heterogeneity to observed boundary-layer structure. Part I focuses on observations and utilizes a simple model while Part II uses observations and MM5 modelling. Soil moisture inputs tested include a lookup table based on soil type and season, output from an offline land-surface model (LSM) forced by atmospheric observations, and high-resolution ( 800 m) airborne microwave remotely sensed data. Model physics improvements are investigated by comparing an LSM directly coupled with the MM5 to a simpler force-restore method at the surface. The scale of land surface heterogeneities is compared to the scale of their effects on boundary-layer structure.The use of more detailed soil moisture fields allowed the MM5 to better represent the large-scale (hundreds of km) and small-scale (tens of km) horizontal gradients in surface-layer weather and, to a lesser degree, the atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) height, which was evaluated against observations measured by differential absorption lidar (DIAL). The benefits of coupling an LSM to the MM5 were not readily evident in this summertime case, with the model having particular difficulty simulating the timing of maximum surface fluxes while underestimating the depth of the mixed layer.     

A Case Study on the Effects of Heterogeneous Soil Moisture on Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Structure in the Southern Great Plains, U.S.A. Part I: Simple Prognostic Model

The atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) depth was observed by airborne lidar and balloon soundings during the Southern Great Plains 1997 field study (SGP97). This paper is Part I of a two-part case study examining the relationship of surface heterogeneity to observed ABL structure. Part I focuses on observations. During two days (12–13 July 1997) following rain, midday convective ABL depth varied by as much as 1.5 km across 400 km, even with moderate winds. Variability in ABL depth was driven primarily by the spatial variation in surface buoyancy flux as measured from short towers and aircraft within the SGP97 domain. Strong correlation was found between time-integrated buoyancy flux and airborne remotely sensed surface soil moisture for the two case-study days, but only a weak correlation was found between surface energy fluxes and vegetation greenness as measured by satellite. A simple prognostic one-dimensional ABL model was applied to test to what extent the soil moisture spatial heterogeneity explained the variation in north–south ABL depth across the SGP97 domain. The model was able to better predict mean ABL depth and variations on horizontal scales of approximately 100 km using observed soil moisture instead of constant soil moisture. Subsidence, advection, convergence/divergence and spatial variability of temperature inversion strength also contributed to ABL depth variations. In Part II, assimilation of high-resolution soil moisture into a three-dimensional mesoscale model (MM5) is discussed and shown to improve predictions of ABL structure. These results have implications for ABL models and the influence of soil moisture on mesoscale meteorology     

Impact of the Preceding Boreal Winter Southern Annular Mode on the Summertime Somali Jet

One of the major high-latitude circulation systems in the Southern Hemisphere is the Southern Annular Mode（SAM）. Its effect on the Somali Jet（SMJ）, which connects the Southern and Northern hemispheres, cannot be ignored. The present reported results show that time series of both the Southern Annular Mode Index（SAMI） during the preceding winter and the summertime Somali Jet intensity Index（SMJI） display a significant increasing trend and have similar interdecadal variation. The latter was rather strong around 1960, then became weaker up to the mid-1980 s, before starting to strengthen again. The lead-lag correlations of monthly mean SAMI with the following summertime SMJI showed significant positive correlations in November, December, and January. There are thus connections across two seasons between the SAM and the SMJ. The influence of the winter SAM on the summer SMJ was explored via analyses of SST anomalies in the Southern Indian Ocean. During strong（weak） SAM/SMJ years, the SST east of Madagascar is colder（warmer） while the SST west of Australia is warmer（colder）, corresponding to the positive（negative） Southern Indian Ocean Dipole-like（SIODL） event. Subsequently, the SIODL excites an anticyclone located over the Arabian Sea in summer through air-sea coupling from winter to summer, which causes an increase in the summer SMJ intensity. The anticyclone/high branch of the SAM over the Southern Hemisphere subtropics and the cyclone/low over the east coast of Madagascar play an important role in the formation of Southern Indian Ocean ＂bridge＂ from winter to summer.     

Assessing Winter Wheat Responses to Climate Change Scenarios: A Simulation Study in the U.S. Great Plains

Hard red winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is a major crop in the Great Plains region of the U.S. The goal of this assessment effort was to investigate the influence of two contrasting global climate change projections (U.K. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research and Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) on the yield and percent kernel nitrogen content of winter wheat at three locations in Nebraska. These three locations represent sub-humid and semi arid areas and the transition between these areas and are also representative of major portions of the winter wheat growing areas of the central Great Plains. Climate scenarios based on each of the projections for each location were developed using the LARS-WG weather generator along with data from automated weather stations. CERES-Wheat was used to simulate the responses for two contrasting cultivars of wheat using two sowing dates. The first sowing date represented current sowing dates appropriate for each location. The second sowing date was later and represents the approximate date when the mean air temperature from the climate scenarios is the same as the mean air temperature from the actual climate data at the current sowing dates. The yield and percent kernel nitrogen content using the two climate scenarios generally decrease going from the sub-humid eastern to the semi arid western parts of Nebraska. Results from these simulations indicate that yield and percent kernel nitrogen content using the two climate scenarios could not both be maintained at levels currently simulated. Protein content (directly related to kernel nitrogen content) and end-use quality are the primary determinants for the use of hard red winter wheat in baked goods. Nitrogen management and new cultivars, which can enhance the uptake and translocation of nitrogen, will be proactive steps to meet the challenges of global climate change as represented by these climate scenarios.     

Some patterns of rainfall in the North-Central U.S.A.

Summary Weekly statistics of rainfall occurrence in the North-Central United States show certain preferences for precipitation in early April and early June. Dry spells are most common in late October, Mid-November, Mid-December and at the end of the year. A northward migration of the rainy condition in spring and early summer is linked with a comparable motion of the jet stream. The possible connection of these spells with singularities elsewhere andBowen's rain statistics is discussed but no firm relations can be established.

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Zusammenfassung Wöchentliche Werte der Niederschlagswahrschein-lichkeit in der nördlichen Mittelzone der Vereinigten Staaten zeigen bevorzugte Regenperioden zu Anfang der Monate April und Juni. Trockene Wochen sind am häufigsten im Spätoktober, Mitte November, Mitte Dezember und zur Jahreswende. Eine nordwärts gerichtete Wanderung der Regentendenz im Frühling und Frühsommer wird mit einer gleichzeitigen Verschiebung des jet stream in Zusammenhang gebracht. Eine mögliche Beziehung dieser Witterungsfälle zu den Singularitäten in anderen Gegenden und zuBowens Regenstatistik wird erörtert, doch sind gesicherte Beziehungen nicht feststellbar.

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Résumé Des valeurs hebdomadaires de la probabilité de pluie dans la zone moyenne septentrionale des Etats-Unis mettent en évidence des périodes pluvieuses particulièrement fréquentes au début des mois d'avril et de juin. Des semaines sèches apparaissent le plus souvent à la fin d'octobre, au milieu de novembre et de décembre et vers le Nouvel-An. Un déplacement vers le Nord de la tendance pluvieuse au printemps et au début de l'été peut être mis en parallèle avec un déplacement simultané du jet stream. On ne peut pas déceler de relations sûres entre ces cas de pluviosité et les singularités dans d'autres régions, pas plus qu'avec la statistique pluvieuse deBowen.

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With 4 Figures     

Modelled and measured concentrations of peroxy radicals and nitrate radical in the U.S. Gulf Coast region during TexAQS 2006

Measurements of total peroxy radicals (HO₂?+?RO₂) and nitrate radical (NO₃) were made on the NOAA research vessel R/V?Brown along the U.S. Gulf Coast during the TexAQS 2006 field campaign. The measurements were modelled using a constrained box-model based upon the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM). The agreement between modelled and measured HO₂?+?RO₂ was typically within ??40% and, in the unpolluted regions, within 30%. The analysis of the model results suggests that the MCM might underestimate the concentrations of some acyl peroxy radicals and other small peroxy radicals. The model underestimated the measurements of NO₃ by 60?C70%, possibly because of rapid heterogeneous uptake of N₂O₅. The MCM model results were used to estimate the composition of the peroxy radical pool and to quantify the role of DMS, isoprene and alkenes in the formation of RO₂ in the different regions. The measurements of HO₂?+?RO₂ and NO₃ were also used to calculate the gas-phase budget of NO₃ and quantify the importance of organic peroxy radicals as NO₃ sinks. RO₂ accounted, on average, for 12?C28% of the total gas-phase NO₃ losses in the unpolluted regions and for 1?C2% of the total gas-phase NO₃ losses in the polluted regions.     

Water Resources Implications of Global Warming: A U.S. Regional Perspective

The implications of global warming for the performance of six U.S. water resource systems are evaluated. The six case study sites represent a range of geographic and hydrologic, as well as institutional and social settings. Large, multi-reservoir systems (Columbia River, Missouri River, Apalachicola-Chatahoochee-Flint (ACF) Rivers), small, one or two reservoir systems (Tacoma and Boston) and medium size systems (Savannah River) are represented. The river basins range from mountainous to low relief and semi-humid to semi-arid, and the system operational purposes range from predominantly municipal to broadly multi-purpose. The studies inferred, using a chain of climate downscaling, hydrologic and water resources systems models, the sensitivity of six water resources systems to changes in precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. The climate change scenarios used in this study are based on results from transient climate change experiments performed with coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. An earlier doubled-CO₂ scenario from one of the GCMs was also used in the evaluation. The GCM scenarios were transferred to the local level using a simple downscaling approach that scales local weather variables by fixed monthly ratios (for precipitation) and fixed monthly shifts (for temperature). For those river basins where snow plays an important role in the current climate hydrology (Tacoma, Columbia, Missouri and, to a lesser extent, Boston) changes in temperature result in important changes in seasonal streamflow hydrographs. In these systems, spring snowmelt peaks are reduced and winter flows increase, on average. Changes in precipitation are generally reflected in the annual total runoff volumes more than in the seasonal shape of the hydrographs. In the Savannah and ACF systems, where snow plays a minor hydrological role, changes in hydrological response are linked more directly to temperature and precipitation changes. Effects on system performance varied from system to system, from GCM to GCM, and for each system operating objective (such as hydropower production, municipal and industrial supply, flood control, recreation, navigation and instream flow protection). Effects were generally smaller for the transient scenarios than for the doubled CO₂ scenario. In terms of streamflow, one of the transient scenarios tended to have increases at most sites, while another tended to have decreases at most sites. The third showed no general consistency over the six sites. Generally, the water resource system performance effects were determined by the hydrologic changes and the amount of buffering provided by the system's storage capacity. The effects of demand growth and other plausible future operational considerations were evaluated as well. For most sites, the effects of these non-climatic effects on future system performance would about equal or exceed the effects of climate change over system planning horizons.     

美国现行的地基气象观测系统

美国气象部门在近十几年对其地基气象观测系统进行了新的一轮现代化的更新换代.目前,这一过程已基本完成.现对该系统的主要情况和特点作简要的介绍.     

Policy solutions in the U.S.

The paper focuses on relocation, retreat, zoning, insurance, and subsidy as major dimensions of coastal hazard mitigation measures that have resurfaced as potent forces for combating coastal inundation and climate change. It reviews the issues surrounding the practice of these measures and discusses compatibilities of policies, engineering measures, and natural defense. Property rights, development interest, and distorted financial incentives pose as main barriers to coastal relocation and retreat policies in hazard-prone areas. To understand and propose coastal adaptation solutions, the paper recommends place-based studies of local coastal adaptation strategies. Place-based studies offer an in-depth knowledge of local conditions specifically regarding the level of implementation of hazard mitigation policies, and shed light on important trade-offs and synergies of various hazard policies. In addition, coupling existing hazard mitigation policies with coastal management and community management can better inform long-term and comprehensive planning of coastal adaptation.     

国外气候资料整编方法介绍——以美国、加拿大为例

世界气象组织认为30a的长度可以消除气候的年变化,建议各国以30a为标准为政府部门以及科研工作者提供气候标准值,同时,包括中国在内的许多世界气象组织成员也规定每隔10a对气候标准值进行一次更新。上次更新的气候标准值时间是1971～2000年。而2010年就要来临,需要准备整理新的30a气候标准值（1981～2010年）,因此,对上次（即1971—2000年）美、加的整编方法和要素进行了介绍和总结,从而为我国新的气候标准值的整编提供一个参考。     

东亚地区高分辨率物理反演方法的数值试验;内部比较研究

为了考察同步物理反演法(Simultaneous physical retrieval method,简称SPRM)的性能,本文着重在反演方法、红外大气透过率算法效应以及SPRM对不同初估值的依赖性三方面,进行了内部比较研究。结果表明:使用透过率调整算法,可以在一定程度上改善物理反演法精度:SPRM的反演精度对初估值的依赖性比统计回归反演法(Statistical regression retrievalmethod,简称SRRM)弱;本阶段SPRM温度反演试验,就大范围纬向平均而论,尚不及改进的SRRM的精度,但在探空资料稀少地区同步物理反演的气象场结构略优于SRRM。