Pattern recognition of seismogenic nodes using Kohonen selforganizing map: example in west and south west of Alborz region in Iran

Pattern recognition of seismic and morphostructural nodes plays an important role in seismic hazard assessment. This is a known fact in seismology that tectonic nodes are prone areas to large earthquake and have this potential. They are identified by morphostructural analysis. In this study, the Alborz region has considered as studied case and locations of future events are forecast based on Kohonen Self-Organized Neural Network. It has been shown how it can predict the location of earthquake,and identifies seismogenic nodes which are prone to earthquake of M5.5? at the West of Alborz in Iran by using International Institute Earthquake Engineering and Seismology earthquake catalogs data. First, the main faults and tectonic lineaments have been identified based on MZ(land zoning method) method. After that, by using pattern recognition, we generalized past recorded events to future in order to show the region of probable future earthquakes.In other word, hazardous nodes have determined among all nodes by new catalog generated Self-organizing feature maps(SOFM). Our input data are extracted from catalog,consists longitude and latitude of past event between1980–2015 with magnitude larger or equal to 4.5. It has concluded node D1 is candidate for big earthquakes in comparison with other nodes and other nodes are in lower levels of this potential.     

Estimation of earthquake parameters in the Alborz seismic zone,Iran using generalized inversion method

Generalized inversion of the S-wave amplitude spectra from the strong-motion network data in the Alborz, Iran has been used to estimate simultaneously source parameters, site response and S-wave attenuation (Qs). To obtain an optimum inverse solution, and also for decreasing the uncertainty level, a frequency-dependent site amplification as a constraint, was imposed to five reference site responses. This constraint removes the undetermined degree of freedom in the inversion. Furthermore, for removing the trade-off between geometrical spreading and anelastic attenuation, a geometrical spreading factor was adopted from the Motazedian [20] study. A point source model has been calibrated against the resulting source terms and consequently source parameters, like corner frequency, moment magnitude and high frequency fall off coefficient, for each event has been determined separately. Also, based on the available data and their connectivity two sub-regions including western and eastern parts of Alborz located east and west of 52.5°E have been considered to see that if there is any possible systematic difference in their seismic source characteristics. The average stress drops obtained are about 182 and 116 bars, respectively for eastern and western Alborz. Another result of the study is the site responses, which have been determined for all of 81 stations individually. Though soil nonlinearity was detected at the Ab-bar station (experienced strong ground shaking, i.e., PGA>0.5 g) near to the epicenter of Manjil M7.4 earthquake of June 20, 1990, but an analysis of residuals showed generally a weak influence of soil nonlinearity (i.e., dependence of amplification on shaking level); probably because of the relatively weak levels of acceleration in our database. Finally, the shear wave quality factor (i.e., Qs) has been determined as a function of frequency represented by a linear equation in logarithmic scale. To evaluate the outcomes of the current study, the results have been compared with similar studies wherever it was available. The results of the current study are of utmost importance for seismic hazard assessment of the metropolitan area of Tehran, where 15 million people live, one-fifth of the population of Iran.     

Pattern recognition of seismogenic nodes using Kohonen selforganizing map: example in west and south west of Alborz region

Pattern recognition of seismic and morphostructural nodes plays an important role in seismic hazard assessment. This is a known fact in seismology that tectonic nodes are prone areas to large earthquake and have this potential. They are identified by morphostructural analysis. In this study, the Alborz region has considered as studied case and locations of future events are forecast based on Kohonen Self-Organized Neural Network. It has been shown how it can predict the location of earthquake, and identifies seismogenic nodes which are prone to earthquake of M5.5+ at the West of Alborz in Iran by using International Institute Earthquake Engineering and Seismology earthquake catalogs data. First, the main faults and tectonic lineaments have been identified based on MZ (land zoning method) method. After that, by using pattern recognition, we generalized past recorded events to future in order to show the region of probable future earthquakes. In other word, hazardous nodes have determined among all nodes by new catalog generated Self-organizing feature maps (SOFM). Our input data are extracted from catalog, consists longitude and latitude of past event between 1980-2015 with magnitude larger or equal to 4.5. It has concluded node D1 is candidate for big earthquakes in comparison with other nodes and other nodes are in lower levels of this potential.     

Temporal variations of seismicity parameters in the Central Alborz,Iran

Temporal changes of b-value, fractal (correlation) dimensions of epicenters (D _e ) and occurrence time of earthquakes (D _t ) and relations between these parameters were calculated to investigate precursory changes before 28 May 2004, Baladeh-Kojour earthquake (M _w = 6.3) of Central Alborz, Iran. 2086 events with M _N ≥ 1.7 were selected for our analyses. A wide range of variation was seen in these parameters: b-value ～ 0.6–1.11, D _e ～ 0.97–1.64, and D _t ～ 0.13–0.93. The results showed decreases in all fractal parameters several months before the main shock. This decrease, which might have arisen due to clusters of events occurred between 2002–2003, was followed by a systematic increase, corresponding to the increased level of low-magnitude seismicity. It seems that changes in fractal parameters may be precursors of Baladeh-Kojour earthquake which was caused by seismic activation and quiescence. Furthermore, a positive correlation between b-value and D _e was detected before the main shock (D _e = 0.87 + 0.7b) and during aftershock sequences (D _e = 2b ± 0.09), which was further on changed to a negative one (D _e = 2.56–1.32b).     

Temporal characteristics of seismicity in the Alborz and Zagros regions of Iran, using a multifractal approach

Multifractal characteristics of the temporal distribution of earthquakes in the Zagros and Alborz regions of Iran were analyzed using the fixed-mass method. The generalized multifractal dimensions, singularity spectrum, mass exponents, and the asymmetry factor were calculated for these regions. The results indicate that the temporal distributions of earthquakes in the Zagros and Alborz regions are likely to be chaotic and have multifractal structures. Although both of the study areas show heterogeneous structures, the D_q and f(α_q) spectra for the Zagros region indicate that densely populated time domains are as heterogeneous as the sparsely populated ones. On the other hand, the multifractal spectra of the Alborz region show that the densely clustered time domains are more heterogeneous than the sparsely populated ones. Such a multifractal spectrum shows that there are many more sparsely populated time domains (i.e. seismic gaps) within the multifractal structure than densely populated ones.     

Earthquake relocation in the Central Alborz region of Iran using a non-linear probabilistic method

In this study, we calculate accurate absolute locations for nearly 3,000 shallow earthquakes (≤20 km depth) that occurred from 1996 to 2010 in the Central Alborz region of northern Iran using a non-linear probabilistic relocation algorithm on a local scale. We aim to produce a consistent dataset with a realistic assessment of location errors using probabilistic hypocenter probability density functions. Our results indicate significant improvement in hypocenter locations and far less scattering than in the routine earthquake catalog. According to our results, 816 earthquakes have horizontal uncertainties in the 0.5–3.0 km range, and 981 earthquakes are relocated with focal-depth errors less than 3.0 km, even with a suboptimal network geometry. Earthquake relocated are tightly clustered in the eastern Tehran region and are mainly associated with active faults in the study area (the Mosha and Garmsar faults). Strong historical earthquakes have occurred along the Mosha and Garmsar faults, and the relocated earthquakes along these faults show clear north-dipping structures and align along east–west lineations, consistent with the predominant trend of faults within the study region. After event relocation, all seismicity lies in the upper 20 km of the crust, and no deep seismicity (>20 km depth) has been observed. In many circumstances, the seismicity at depth does not correlate with surface faulting, suggesting that the faulting at depth does not directly offset overlying sediments.     

Assessing tectonic and climatic causal mechanisms in foreland‐basin stratal architecture: insights from the Alborz Mountains,northern Iran

The southern foreland basin of the Alborz Mountains of northern Iran is characterized by an approximately 7.3‐km‐thick sequence of Miocene sedimentary rocks, constituting three basin‐wde coarsening‐upward units spanning a period of 10⁶ years. We assess available magnetostratigraphy, paleoclimatic reconstructions, stratal architecture, records of depositional environments, and sediment‐provenance data to characterize the relationships between tectonically‐generated accommodation space (A) and sediment supply (S). Our analysis allows an inversion of the stratigraphy for particular forcing mechanisms, documenting causal relationships, and providing a basis to decipher the relative contributions of tectonics and climate (inferred changes in precipitation) in controlling sediment supply to the foreland basin. Specifically, A/S > 1, typical of each basal unit (17.5–16.0, 13.8–13.1 and 10.3–9.6 Ma), is associated with sharp facies retrogradation and reflects substantial tectonic subsidence. Within these time intervals, arid climatic conditions, changes in sediment provenance, and accelerated exhumation in the orogen suggest that sediment supply was most likely driven by high uplift rates. Conversely, A/S < 1 (13.8 and 13.8–11 Ma, units 1, and 2) reflects facies progradation during a sharp decline in tectonic subsidence caused by localized intra‐basinal uplift. During these time intervals, climate continued to be arid and exhumation active, suggesting that sediment supply was again controlled by tectonics. A/S < 1, at 11–10.3 Ma and 9‐6–7.6 Ma (and possibly 6.2; top of units 2 and 3), is also associated with two episodes of extensive progradation, but during wetter phases. The first episode appears to have been linked to a pulse in sediment supply driven by an increase in precipitation. The second episode reflects a balance between a climatically‐induced increase in sediment supply and a reduction of subsidence through the incorporation of the proximal foreland into the orogenic wedge. This in turn caused an expansion of the catchment and a consequent further increase in sediment supply. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Segmented seismicity of the M w 6.2 Baladeh earthquake sequence (Alborz Mountains, Iran) revealed from regional moment tensors

The M _w 6.2 Baladeh earthquake occurred on 28 May 2004 in the Alborz Mountains, northern Iran. This earthquake was the first strong shock in this intracontinental orogen for which digital regional broadband data are available. The Baladeh event provides a rare opportunity to study fault geometry and ongoing deformation processes using modern seismological methods. A joint inversion for hypocentres and a velocity model plus a surface-wave group dispersion curve analysis were used to obtain an adapted velocity model, customised for mid- and long-period waveform modelling. Based on the new velocity model, regional waveform data of the mainshock and larger aftershocks (M _w ?≥3.3) were inverted for moment tensors. For the Baladeh mainshock, this included inversion for kinematic parameters. All analysed earthquakes show dominant thrust mechanisms at depths between 14 and 26 km, with NW–SE striking fault planes. The mainshock ruptured a 28° south-dipping area of 24 × 21 km along a north-easterly direction. The rupture plane of the mainshock does not coincide with the aftershock distribution, neither in map view nor with respect to depth. The considered aftershocks form two main clusters. The eastern cluster is associated with the mainshock. The western cluster does not appear to be connected with the rupture plane of the mainshock but, instead, indicates a second activated fault plane dipping at 85° towards the north.     

New magnitude scaling relations for earthquake early warning in the Alborz region,Iran

Rapid magnitude estimation relations for earthquake early warning systems in the Alborz region have been developed based on the initial first seconds of the P-wave arrival. For this purpose, a total of 717 accelerograms recorded by the Building and Housing Research Center in the Alborz region with the magnitude (M_w) range of 4.8–6.5 in the period between 1995 and 2013 were employed. Average ground motion period (\( \tau_{\text{c}} \)) and peak displacement (\( P_{\text{d}} \)) in different time windows from the P-wave arrival were calculated, and their relation with magnitude was examined. Four earthquakes that were excluded from the analysis process were used to validate the results, and the estimated magnitudes were found to be in good agreement with the observed ones. The results show that using the proposed relations for the Alborz region, earthquake magnitude could be estimated with acceptable accuracy even after 1 s of the P-wave arrival.     

Middle Jurassic palynomorphs of the Dalichai Formation, central Alborz Ranges, northeastern Iran: Paleoecological inferences

Palynological data are used to draw paleoecological inferences for the Dalichai Formation,northeast of Semnan,northeastern Iran.All samples examined yield well-preserved,diverse palynofloras consisting predominantly of miospores;dinoflagellate cysts,foraminiferal test linings,and fungal spores occur as minor constituents.Fifty-four species of spores(37 genera),18species of pollen(9 genera),and 16 species of dinoflagellate cysts(13 genera)are recognized.Co-occurrence of such miospore species with known vertical ranges as Klukisporites variegatus,Sellaspora asperata,Murospora florida,and Concavissimisporites verrucosus suggests a Middle Jurassic(Bajocian-Callovian)age for the host strata,thus corroborating the available paleozoological evidence.Such spore species as Klukisporites,Cyathidites,and Dictyophyllidites known to have been produced by Pterophyta dominate the palynofloras.Thus the contemporaneous coastal vegetation was characterized by predominance of Pterophyta whereas representatives of Ginkgophyta,Pteridospermophyta,Lycophyta,Coniferophyta,and Bryophyta were rarely represented.This reconstruction implies that a moist,warm climate prevailed in northeastern Iran during the Middle Jurassic(Bajocian-Callovian).This is confirmed by occurrence of fungal spores accompanied by such warm water dinoflagellate cysts as Mendicodinium groenlandicum,Pareodinia ceratophora,and Gonyaulacysta jurassica.Abundance of Amorphous Organic Matter(AOM)signifies a shallow,low-energy,dysoxic-anoxic depositional site for the host strata.Furthermore,the ratio of AOM to marine palynomorphs as well as abundance of blade-shaped to eqiudimensional opaque palynomacerals could indicate low sedimentation rate in a shallow,low-oxygenated marine environment.Additionally,occurrence of chorate dinoflagellate cysts(e.g.,Adnatosphaeridium caulleryi)and acritarchs bearing relatively long processes(e.g.,Micrhystridium)possibly suggests deepening upward in the study section.     

Crustal velocity structure in the southern edge of the Central Alborz (Iran)

Inversion of local earthquake travel times and joint inversion of receiver functions and Rayleigh wave group velocity measurements were used to derive a simple model for the velocity crustal structure beneath the southern edge of the Central Alborz (Iran), including the seismically active area around the megacity of Tehran. The P and S travel times from 115 well-located earthquakes recorded by a dense local seismic network, operated from June to November 2006, were inverted to determine a 1D velocity model of the upper crust. The limited range of earthquake depths (between 2 km and 26 km) prevents us determining any velocity interfaces deeper than 25 km. The velocity of the lower crust and the depth of the Moho were found by joint inversion of receiver functions and Rayleigh wave group velocity data. The resulting P-wave velocity model comprises an upper crust with 3 km and 4 km thick sedimentary layers with P wave velocities (V_p) of ～5.4 and ～5.8 km s^?1, respectively, above 9 km and 8 km thick layers of upper crystalline crust (V_p ～6.1 and ～6.25 km s^?1 respectively). The lower crystalline crust is ～34 km thick (V_p ～ 6.40 km s^?1). The total crustal thickness beneath this part of the Central Alborz is 58 ± 2 km.     

Body wave attenuation characteristics in the crust of Alborz region and North Central Iran

Attenuation of P and S waves has been investigated in Alborz and north central part of Iran using the data recorded by two permanent and one temporary networks during October 20, 2009, to December 22, 2010. The dataset consists of 14,000 waveforms from 380 local earthquakes (2 < M _L < 5.6). The extended coda normalization method (CNM) was used to estimate quality factor of P (Q _P) and S waves (Q _S) at seven frequency bands (0.375, 0.75, 1.5, 3, 6, 12, 24 Hz). The Q _P and Q _S values have been estimated at lapse times from 40 to 100 s. It has been observed that the estimated values of Q _P and Q _S are time independent; therefore, the mean values of Q _P and Q _S at different lapse times have been considered. The frequency dependence of quality factor was determined by using a power-law relationship. The frequency-dependent relationship for Q _P was estimated in the form of (62 ± 7)f ^{(1.03 ± 0.07)} and (48 ± 5)f ^{(0.95 ± 0.07)} in Alborz region and North Central Iran, respectively. These relations for Q _S for Alborz region and North Central Iran have estimated as (83 ± 8)f ^{(0.99 ± 0.07)} and (68 ± 5)f ^{(0.96 ± 0.05)}, respectively. The observed low Q values could be the results of thermoelastic effects and/or existing fracture. The estimated frequency-dependent relationships are comparable with tectonically active regions.     

Evaluation of local site effect from microtremor measurements in Babol City,Iran

Every year, numerous casualties and a large deal of financial losses are incurred due to earthquake events. The losses incurred by an earthquake vary depending on local site effect. Therefore, in order to conquer drastic effects of an earthquake, one should evaluate urban districts in terms of the local site effect. One of the methods for evaluating the local site effect is microtremor measurement and analysis. Aiming at evaluation of local site effect across the city of Babol, the study area was gridded and microtremor measurements were performed with an appropriate distribution. The acquired data was analyzed through the horizontal-to-vertical noise ratio (HVNR) method, and fundamental frequency and associated amplitude of the H/V peak were obtained. The results indicate that fundamental frequency of the study area is generally lower than 1.25 Hz, which is acceptably in agreement with the findings of previous studies. Also, in order to constrain and validate the seismostratigraphic model obtained with this method, the results were compared with geotechnical, geological, and seismic data. Comparing the results of different methods, it was observed that the presented geophysical method can successfully determine the values of fundamental frequency across the study area as well as local site effect. Using the data obtained from the analysis of microtremor, a microzonation map of fundamental frequency across the city of Babol was prepared. This map has numerous applications in designing high-rise building and urban development plans.     

Pattern recognition of earthquake-prone areas in Italy

In accordance with a map of lineaments in the Italian region, the intersections of lineaments where, according to the results of previous studies, strong earthquakes may be expected to occur, have been identified. The parameters used for the pattern recognition method are mostly based on elevation and slope. Many control experiments were carried out to test the validity and stability of the results obtained. Results show several locations where strong earthquakes have not occurred in historic times, but where they may occur in the future.     

Local variations of solifluction activity and environment in the Abisko Mountains,Northern Sweden

Seven sites within the mountain region of Abisko, northern Sweden, were selected for measurement of solifluction movement rates and correlation with the local environmental factors. Grids with sizes from 20 m × 30 m to 50 m × 100 m included both solifluction landforms and adjacent ground. Positions of movement markers and the terrain were recorded and the grid areas were digitally reconstructed. This allowed topography, vegetation and soil texture (fraction of fine material) surfaces to be interpolated and used together with data on soil moisture in statistical analyses. Significant correlations differ from site to site indicating that environmental factors have varying importance and inter‐relations depending on the local setting. Geomorphic work was also assessed within the grids. The results indicate measurable geomorphic work where no landforms are present. These areas may make larger contributions to sediment displacement than where solifluction landforms exist. Solifluction is an important denudational agent in the region and has its greatest impact on landscape development in the western part of the region. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Paleomagnetism and ore mineralogy of some basalts of the Geirud Formation of Late Devonian - Early Carboniferous age from the southern Alborz,Iran

Basaltic lavas from the southern Alborz, an area about 40 km northeast of Tehran, Iran, have been paleomagnetically investigated. The lavas are of Late Devonian-Early Carboniferous age, and belong to the basal member of the Geirud Formation. At 11 sites a total of 80 cores was drilled.Detailed analyses by means of progressive demagnetization of the natural remanent magnetization (NRM) were made both by the application of alternating magnetic fields and by heating. Also, on a number of specimens a study was done both with thin sections and with polished sections. There proved to be general agreement between the properties of the characteristic NRM and the kind of Fe-Ti oxides in the lavas. In the case of specimens containing magnetite only the characteristic NRM was entirely removed at temperatures just below 600°C, or in alternating fields up to 1500/2000 Oe peak value; on the other hand, in specimens containing both magnetite and a substantial part of hematite (martite) the final part of the characteristic remanence was removed at temperatures above 600°C, and this remanence resisted alternating fields above 2000 Oe peak value. From the characteristic site-mean directions of 5 sites an average paleomagnetic direction is computed withD = 210.8°,I = 66.9°, and α₉₅ = 3.9°.This result might be taken as an indication that at the Devono-Carboniferous transition the southern part of the Alborz was located in the present Indian Ocean off the Arabian coast.     

Numerical modeling of general circulation,thermohaline structure,and residence time in Gorgan Bay,Iran

Gorgan Bay is a semi-enclosed basin located in the southeast of the Caspian Sea, Iran. The bay is recognized as a resting place for migratory birds as well as a spawning habitat for native fish. However, apparently, no detailed research on its physical processes has previously been conducted. In this study, a 3D coupled hydrodynamic and solute transport model was used to investigate general circulation, thermohaline structure, and residence time in Gorgan Bay. Model outputs were validated against a set of field observations. Bottom friction and attenuation coefficient of light intensity were tuned in order to achieve optimum agreement with the observations. Results revealed that, due to the interaction between bathymetry and prevailing winds, a barotropic double-gyre circulation, dominating the general circulation, existed during all seasons in Gorgan Bay. Furthermore, temperature and salinity fluctuations in the bay were seasonal, due to the seasonal variability of atmospheric fluxes. Results also indicated that under the prevailing winds, the domain-averaged residence time in Gorgan Bay would be approximately 95 days. The rivers discharging into Gorgan Bay are considered as the main sources of nutrients in the bay. Since their mouths are located in the area with a residence time of over 100 days, Gorgan Bay could be at risk of eutrophication; it is necessary to adopt preventive measures against water quality degradation.     

Shallow/upper crustal shear wave structure of the Tehran region (Central Alborz,Iran) from the inversion of Rayleigh wave dispersion measurements

Surface wave dispersion curves from microearthquakes are used to obtain group velocity dispersion maps. The calculation of the local dispersion curves for each grid point from these maps then produces the input data to retrieve the 3D shear wave velocity model of the Tehran region. The group velocity maps indicate that the tomographic results agree well with the three main tectonic features and the geological units in the study area. The tomographic maps generally possess high-velocity structures across most of the mountain belts (Central Alborz and east-southeast mountains), whereas the Tehran Basin correlates to a low-velocity structure. Increasing the period in the study area highlights four independent low-velocity zones that reflect faults and fault junction systems. The shear wave velocity profiles indicate that the depth to bedrock exhibits southward variation ranging from ~?300 m to ~?1500 m. We also focus our analysis on the existence of faults within the shear wave profiles and discuss the low shear wave velocity anomalies deeper than 2 km result from the main fault structures (e.g., North Tehran, North-South Rey and Parchin). Furthermore, we argue that the dip angle of the North Tehran fault varies along fault strike, whereas the North-South Rey fault possesses a constant dip angle. Moreover, initial model uncertainties and checkerboard resolution tests are used to identify reliable and robust anomaly features in the 3D shear wave velocity model and 2D tomographic maps, respectively. Microearthquake analysis provides an effective approach for studying the upper crustal structure heterogeneity, especially the fault structure, of the Tehran region.     

利用地震复发周期考察汶川8．0级地震前兆异常

通过对汶川Ms8．0地震复发周期的时间和空间进行扫描,发现地震发生前,在时间上和空间上,地震复发周期均出现低值异常。因此,对地震发生的时间和地区进行异常判断,地震复发周期是一个可以参考利用的指标。     

Investigation of hydraulics transport time scales within the Arvand River estuary,Iran

Transport time scales are key parameters for understanding the hydrodynamic and biochemical processes within estuaries. In this study, the flushing and residence times within the Arvand River estuary have been estimated using a two‐dimensional hydrodynamic model called CE‐QUAL‐W2. The model has been calibrated and verified by two different sets of field data and using the k‐ε vertical eddy diffusivity scheme. Flushing time has been estimated using different methods such as the tidal prism and fraction of freshwater methods. Moreover, residence times have been investigated using pulse residence time, estuarine residence time and remnant function approaches. The results have shown that different methods yield different time scales, and freshwater inflow has the greatest impact upon estimation of residence time, whereas tidal circulation hardly contributes to residence time at all. It has also been shown that the neap‐spring circulation and start phase of simulations have negligible effects on the Arvand's time scales. The investigation of bathymetry showed that two sills of the estuary tend to significantly increase residence time. Understanding the applicability of these time scales and their estimation approaches helps us to evaluate the water quality management of estuaries. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.