Characteristics of the atmospheric circulation associated with cold-season heavy rainfall and flooding over a complex terrain region in Greece

Raingauge data from four meteorological stations in Chalkidiki peninsula (Greece) were used to identify the characteristics of the synoptic circulation patterns associated with cold-season heavy rainfall events and corresponding flooding over the area. Precipitation climatology over the complex topography of Chalkidiki is characterized by limited annual rainfall, but in the occurrence of heavy rainfall episodes daily accumulations are exceptionally high with increased precipitation rates, leading often to severe flooding. Fifty-five cases of high daily accumulations for the period of 1997 to 2010, mostly observed during December and October, were classified into eight clusters by applying S-Mode Factor Analysis and Cluster Analysis to the ERA-Interim grid point reanalysis data. The results revealed that, in most cases, intense rainfall and flooding is produced by synoptic scale disturbances that generate and sustain cyclonic activity over south Italy, the Ionian, and less frequently over the Aegean Sea. In particular, the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with heavy rainfall are characterized by the presence of a southeasterly–easterly low-level humid flow over Chalkidiki in conjunction with the potentially unstable lower troposphere influenced by mid-level cyclonic vorticity advection and enhanced low-level convergence over the complex terrain.     

Statistical-dynamical downscaling of wind roses over the Czech Republic

The present study describes a new method for statistical-dynamical downscaling that combines two different approaches, namely, a set of patterns simulated with a numerical flow model and a transformation function used to process both calculated data and measurements at a reference station. The combined method produces wind roses and wind speed histograms at an arbitrary location in the model domain. The inflow wind direction represented the key parameter to define a set of wind field simulations. The other two inflow parameters, namely, thermal stratification and geostrophic wind speed, were derived from corresponding averaged soundings. The results showed that in the Czech Republic, there are areas where wind roses are deformed by the surrounding terrain. The deformations occur in relatively shallow and wide valleys, and they are more sensitive to the inflow wind direction. Calculated wind roses are compared to corresponding observations at 22 synoptic stations. The most frequent wind direction sector in simulations agreed with measurements at 17 stations. The resulting error in frequency in that sector was under 5 % at 10 stations. In general, the main features of the wind roses are modelled well, even at a relatively large distance from the reference station. However, better performance was achieved for smaller distances between reference station and the site. In further studies, a more extensive set of flow patterns with reduced intervals of thermal stratification and wind speed will likely improve calculated wind roses.     

塔克拉玛干沙漠若羌-且末公路大风特征分析

以塔克拉玛干沙漠东南部若羌、且末气象站43a（1961～2003年）大风资料为依据，结合2004年的野外风沙监测资料，采用天气学、气候学和统计学相结合方法，分析了塔克拉玛干东南部大风特征及变化趋势，为塔克拉玛干沙漠东南部国道G315线若羌一且末段的选线、未来养护和防沙治沙提供科学依据。     

中国近海大风的天气学分型

利用2010—2014年地面观测站（包括288个海岛站、380个沿海气象站、28个浮标站、37个船舶站、53个气象观测塔、13个海上平台站、9个沿海风廓线仪等）和高空气象观测站资料,采用天气学分型和统计分析方法,对2010—2014年285次中国近海6级及以上大风天气个例进行了分析,将近海的大风天气过程归纳为冷空气型、温带气旋型和热带气旋型3种类型。其中冷空气型又分为小槽东移型、小槽发展型和横槽转竖型;温带气旋型又分为东海气旋型、黄渤海气旋型和蒙古气旋型。这些分型可为海上大风预报预警提供天气学背景参考依据。     

基于自组织映射神经网络的吉林省春夏期降水统计模拟研究

利用1997—2015年吉林省春夏期(4—7月)逐日气象站地面观测资料,以气温、气压、相对湿度、水汽压、风速为协变量,建立各站点逐日降水量的基于自组织映射神经网络(Self-Organizing Maps,SOM)的统计预测模型;分析吉林省春夏期的主要天气模态,研究逐日降水和天气模态之间的关系,并基于此关系提出逐日降水量的蒙特卡罗模拟方法。结果表明:SOM对天气模态的分型质量较好,邻近天气模态的累积概率分布较相似,距离较远的天气模态累计概率分布差异较大。各天气模态下无降水的概率与日降水量区间宽度的相关系数为-0. 94,显著性水平小于0. 01。基于降水量累积概率分布,20种天气模态被划分成4类,并与降水易发程度和逐日降水量完全对应。在此基础上,对吉林省24个站点逐日降水量进行蒙特卡罗模拟,并进行预测性能分析。平均绝对误差(Mean Absolute Error,MAE)和均方根误差(Root Mean Square Error,RM SE)的中位数分别为3. 12 mm和6. 13 mm,SBrier和Ssig分别为0. 06和0. 51,站点的逐日降水量预测性能整体较好。MAE和RMSE分布呈现东南大西北小,去除降水自然变异差异的影响,所有站点的误差都较小; SBrier和Ssig没有明显的空间分布特征。     

Interacting multi-scale wind systems within an Alpine basin,Lake Tekapo,New Zealand

Summary The wind regime of the Lake Tekapo Basin is examined with reference to the interaction of multi-scale local, regional and synoptic circulations. Analysis of the historical wind direction record from Mt John identifies airflow from three principal directions to most frequently affect the study area. Both seasonal and diurnal trends in the frequency of each directional category are identified, which reflect the influence of local thermal forcings and seasonal changes in synoptic circulation on the Lake Tekapo windfield. Meteorological observations from a network of automatic weather stations and anemographs within the study area identified Lake Tekapo to generate its own circulation system, a lake/land breeze. This combines with the larger scale valley wind, which during ideal conditions continues after sunset in the upper reaches of the lake catchment. During light to moderate foehn northwesterly conditions, the combined lake breeze/valley wind system remains decoupled from the prevailing synoptic airstream. Towards evening when local thermal circulations weakened, a channelised foehn airstream often becomes dominant over the entire field area. Observations made during this investigation have a number of applied implications with respect to air pollution dispersion modelling and forecasting within alpine lake basins.With 7 Figures     

Summertime atmospheric circulation in the vicinity of a blue ice area in Queen Maud Land,Antarctica

The surface wind field is an important factor controlling the surface mass balance of Antarctica. This paper focuses on the observed atmospheric circulation during summer of an Antarctic blue ice area in Queen Maud Land. Blue ice areas are characterised by a negative surface mass balance and henceforth provide an interesting location to study the influence of meteorological processes on large local mass balance gradients. During lapse conditions, synoptic forcing determines the surface-layer flow. No significant horizontal temperature gradient with coastal stations could be detected along isobaric surfaces, indicating weak or absent thermal wind. Observations performed at the coastal stations Halley and Georg von Neumayer show the pronounced effects of synoptic forcing. The surface winds in the valley of the blue ice area could be divided into two distinct flow patterns, occurring with about equal frequency during the experiment. Flow type I is associated with cyclonic activity at the coast, resulting in strong easterly winds, precipitation and drifting snow. Flow characteristics inside and outside of the valley are similar during these conditions. Flow type II occurs when a high pressure system develops in the Weddell Sea, weakening the free atmosphere geostrophic winds. A local circulation is able to develop inside the valley of the blue ice area during these tranquil conditions. The transition from flow type II to flow type I is associated with front-like phenomena inside the valley. Some simple theoretical considerations show that surface-layer stability and the upper air geostrophic wind determine the surface flow direction in the valley. Finally, the influence of the observed circulation on the energy and mass balance of the blue ice area is discussed.     

大同地区暴雨的天气分型及其成因的初步分析研究

根据大同市所辖8个县气象站点自有气象记录以来的暴雨资料，应用天气学及气候学等原理，对大同地区暴雨的天气气候特征和形成机制进行了系统的分析与研究，得出了相关结论。     

Mesoscale modeling of katabatic winds over Greenland and comparisons with AWS and aircraft data

Summary Simulations of the katabatic wind system over the Greenland ice sheet for the two months April and May 1997 were performed using the Norwegian Limited Area Model (NORLAM) with a horizontal resolution of 25 km. The model results are intercompared and validated against observational data from automatic weather stations (AWS), global atmospheric analyses and instrumented aircraft observations of individual cases during that period. The NORLAM is able to simulate the synoptic developments and daily cycle of the katabatic wind system realistically. For most of the cases covered by aircraft observations, the model results agree very well with the measured developments and structures of the katabatic wind system in the lowest 400 m. Despite NORLAM’s general ability of reproducing the four-dimensional structure of the katabatic wind, problems occur in cases, when the synoptic background is not well captured by the analyses used as initial and boundary conditions for the model runs or where NORLAM fails to correctly predict the synoptic development. The katabatic wind intensity in the stable boundary layer is underestimated by the model in cases when the simulated synoptic forcing is too weak. An additional problem becomes obvious in cases when the model simulates clouds in contrast to the observations or when the simulated clouds are too thick compared to the observed cloud cover. In these cases, the excessive cloud amount prevents development of the katabatic wind in the model. Received September 22, 2000/Revised March 16, 2001     

Synoptic aspects of wet and dry conditions in central Australia: observations and GCM simulations for 1 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 conditions

Synoptic climatological patterns that produce anomalous wet conditions in central Australia during the period from September to April have been studied. The analysis was done by using observed daily rainfall data at a number of stations, wind and mean sea level pressure from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) data from 1985 to 1991, and the CSIRO 9-level (CSIR09) global climate model (GCM) simulated data for 1 × CO₂ and 2 × CO₂ experiments. On the basis of rainfall values above 99.5 percentile in observed and simulated data, wet days have been selected to study the synoptic-scale weather systems that produce anomalous wet events in central Australia. As the vast majority of days in central Australia are dry, the same number of days with no rainfall for both observed and simulated conditions have been selected randomly. The observed synoptic climatological patterns have been compared with the results of the control simulation of CSIRO9. A comparison between CSIRO9 simulated synoptic patterns and observed synoptic patterns reveals that the model fairly well captures the synoptic climatological characteristics which produce anomalous wet and contrasting dry weather conditions during the period from September to April. Under enhanced greenhouse experiments, the main features of the synoptic patterns are intensified both for wet and dry conditions, which result in an increase in extreme weather conditions, an increase in rainfall intensity, a spatial expansion of the heavy rainfall region during wet days, and an expansion of the dry area during dry days. During anomalous wet conditions, the low pressure area is intensified, monsoonal winds and southeasterlies are strengthened and strong wind shear over tropical Australia is simulated. During this condition, the monsoon shear line moves poleward particularly over the Northern Territory. In contrast, during dry conditions, the anticyclonic circulation over the continent is strengthened.     

On the removal of random variables in data sets of meteorological observations

Summary For some purposes it is not necessary to use a full data set of strongly spatially correlated parameters. In some situations, too much information may even be unwanted. We propose a procedure for finding a non-redundant choice of synoptic stations that is sufficient to capture the relevant physical patterns based on rule N. The technique makes use of principle component analysis and cluster analysis. The above-mentioned procedure can be applied to generic data sets. As an illustration, we apply it here to the strongly correlated two-meter temperature observed in the Belgian synoptic network during the winter period. We find that about three or four stations from this network are necessary. The method also suggests an intelligent choice of stations that are most suitable to be used. Received April 5, 2001/Revised August 1, 2001     

On the variability of the surface environment response to synoptic forcing over complex terrain: a multivariate data analysis approach

Synoptic climatology relates the atmospheric circulation with the surface environment. The aim of this study is to examine the variability of the surface meteorological patterns, which are developing under different synoptic scale categories over a suburban area with complex topography. Multivariate Data Analysis techniques were performed to a data set with surface meteorological elements. Three principal components related to the thermodynamic status of the surface environment and the two components of the wind speed were found. The variability of the surface flows was related with atmospheric circulation categories by applying Correspondence Analysis. Similar surface thermodynamic fields develop under cyclonic categories, which are contrasted with the anti-cyclonic category. A strong, steady wind flow characterized by high shear values develops under the cyclonic Closed Low and the anticyclonic H–L categories, in contrast to the variable weak flow under the anticyclonic Open Anticyclone category.     

北方麦收期间连阴雨天气环流特征

利用1980-2004年5月下旬至6月中旬北方麦收区30个代表站降水实况资料，连阴雨期间亚欧范围500hPa逐日形势图和500hPa高度平均图等，分析总结了近25年来北方麦收期间连阴雨的天气气候和环流形势特征；对北方麦收期间出现的连阴雨天气过程与环流形势和影响系统的关系进行初步探讨，确定连阴雨天气的概念模型。分析表明，阻塞高压形势且贝加尔湖附近伴有冷涡是造成连阴雨天气最主要的环流特征；在500hPa地转风υ场上，麦收区多处于南北风交界处；长连阴雨期间，850hPa东亚地区中低纬度盛行南风为主要特征。     

A Loading Correlation Model for Climatic Classification in Terms of Synoptic Climatology

Summary By using the orthogonal transformations between principal components and original variates, a loading correlation model is proposed as a technique for climatic classification derived from synoptic climatology. The criterion for a loading correlation model for a climate region is that all the first loading correlations are positive and significant. The climate region includes all the stations chosen in the model. The first positive significant loading correlations and other significant ones in the model, fitted to the climate region, can be identified as the average circulation type and the average circulation features, respectively, by using the decomposition of the original variates. Thus, the regional climate can be described in terms of synoptic climatology. The mathematical structure of the loading correlation model is based on empirical orthogonal functions with two additional parameters, the standard deviation of the principal components and the original variates. Received July 8, 1996 Revised November 10, 1997     

密云水库流域性暴雨的短期预报方法研究

为了探索密云水库流域性暴雨的预报，着眼于影响暴雨的天气系统，从数值预报的解释应用入手，试验制作了密云水库流域性暴雨预报方法。通过整理1970-1993年24年间水库流域内20个水文站雨量资料，分析45个暴雨天气样本与历史天气形势和数值预报产品的关系，筛选出预报指标和预报因子，使用数值预报产品的解释应用方法，根据天气环流形势的分型，分别组建了6、7、8月每个月份的未来24小时暴雨天气预报方程。预报检验表明该预报方法是可信的，同时也表明客观划分环流型、筛选预报因子、恰当确定暴雨标准等是预报方法的关键。     

Analysis of Mesoscale Patterns in Relation to Synoptic Conditionsover an Urban Mediterranean Basin

Summary In this study day by day synoptic conditions are classified over the Attica peninsula for a period of sixteen years. Eight synoptic categories which are demonstrated to be statistically distinct are selected with respect to the atmospheric circulation in the lower troposphere. Furthermore, a methodology is proposed to classify the mesoscale patterns for the same period on the basis of surface wind measurements, and this distinguishes eleven distinct mesoscale categories. In general, the frequency analysis reveals that the anticyclonic circulation dominates while the weak mesoscale flows prevail, with preference in May and June. A day by day cross tabulation of the synoptic flow patterns with the mesoscale categories is then performed in order to identify the association of the synoptic conditions with the mesoscale flow regime. It was found that the synoptic conditions at the level of 850 hPa are closely related to the observed surface local flows and therefore it is suggested that the synoptic categories can be used for the identification of the most favourable mesoscale atmospheric circulation. Received February 28, 1997 Revised May 22, 1997     

The KABEG’97 field experiment: An aircraft-based study of katabatic wind dynamics over the Greenland ice sheet

The aircraft-based experiment KABEG97 (Katabatic wind and boundary-layer front experiment around Greenland) was performed in April/May 1997. During the experiment, surface stations were installed at five positions on the ice sheet and in the tundra near Kangerlussuaq, West Greenland. A total of nine katabatic wind flights were performed during quite different synoptic situations and surface conditions, and low-level jets with wind speeds up to 25m s^-1 were measured under strong synoptic forcing of the katabatic wind system. The KABEG data represent a unique data set for the investigation of katabatic winds. For the first time, high-resolution and accurate aircraft measurements can be used to investigate the three-dimensional structure of the katabatic wind system for a variety of synoptic situations.Surface station data show that a pronounced daily cycle of the near-surface wind is present for almost all days due to the nighttime development of the katabatic wind. In a detailed case study the stably-stratified boundary layer over the ice and the complex boundary-layer structure in the transition zone ice/tundra are investigated. The katabatic wind system is found to extend about 10 km over the tundra area and is associated with strong wind convergence and gravity waves. The investigation of the boundary-layer dynamics using the concept of a two-layer katabatic wind model yields the results that the katabatic flow is always a shooting flow and that the pure katabatic force is the main driving mechanism for the flow regime, although a considerable influence of the large-scale synoptic forcing is found as well.     

云南辐射雾的气候分布特征及天气成因

应用1976～2005年云南126个气象站观测资料及2001～2005年的高空探测资料,统计分析了云南辐射雾的时空分布气候特征、形成雾的天气环流背景及要素成因.结果发现:云南雾H数逐年呈现波状变化,总体趋势上呈下降趋势,但雾的日变化规律较为稳定;形成雾的天气形势有偏西气流型和偏北气流型,其中偏北气流型成雾重、持续时间长.成雾物理机制分析表明,近地层良好的水汽条件、静风或弱的风力条件、晴空少云、地面变性冷高压后部的均压场环境、低层大气弱的上升运动、中高层大气较强的下沉运动、低层暖平流、中高层冷平流以及边界层存在逆温层等特征是形成雾的重要条件.     

A study of frost events in areas characterised by the absence of observations

Summary Serious events of radiative frost were reported in an important agricultural area of central Macedonia, the valley of Lagadas, at the end of March 1994. Since the phenomenon has a strong local character and no surface observations are available, a simulation is performed using a three dimensional numerical model in order to investigate the horizontal and vertical thermal structure of the lower troposphere during the frost event. The synoptic analysis reveals that the background flow was weak, associated with anticyclonic circulation and insignificant pressure gradient in the lower troposphere. Under these synoptic conditions, it was demonstrated that the meteorological model represents successfully the temperature and wind fields over the valley of Lagadas during the frost event. It appears that the model can serve as an alternative method to analyse the characteristics of the radiative frost that occurs very frequently over the examined area associated with substantial economic repercussion.With 10 Figures