The challenge of predicting the occurrence of intense storms

Geomagnetic super-storms of October and November 2003 are compared in order to identify solar and interplanetary variables that influence the magnitude of geomagnetic storms. Although these superstorms (D_ST < -300 nT) are associated with high speed CMEs, their DST indices show large variation. The most intense storm of November 20, 2003 (D_St∼ - 472 nT) had its source in a comparatively small active region and was associated with a relatively weaker, M-class flare, while the others had their origins in large active regions and were associated with strong X-class flares. An attempt has been made to implement a logistic regression model for the prediction of the occurrence of intense/superintense geomagnetic storms. The model parameters (regression coefficients) were estimated from a training data-set extracted from a data-set of 64 geo-effective CMEs observed during 1996–2002. The results indicate that logistic regression models can be effectively used for predicting the occurrence of major geomagnetic storms from a set of solar and interplanetary factors. The model validation shows that 100% of the intense storms (-200 nT < D_St < -100 nT) and only 50% of the super-intense (DST < -200 nT) storms could be correctly predicted.     

Analysis of the Properties of Super Solar Proton Events and Associated Phenomena

The solar flares, the speeds of shocks propagated in the solar-terrestrial space and driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), the heliographic longitudes and Carrington longitudes of source regions, and the geomagnetic storms, which are accompanied by the super solar proton events with a peak ?ux equal to or exceeding 10 000 pfu, have been studied by using the data of ground-based and space observations. The results show that the heliographic longitudes of source regions of super solar proton events distributed in the range from E30? to W75°. The Carrington longitudes of source regions of super solar proton events distributed in the two longitudinal belts, 130°∼220° and 260°∼320°, respectively. All super solar proton events were accompanied by major solar flares and fast CMEs. The averaged speeds of shocks propagated from the sun to the Earth were greater than 1 200 km/s. Eight super solar proton events were followed by major geomagnetic storms (Dst≤−100 nT), except that one super solar proton event was followed by a geomagnetic storm with the geomagnetic activity index Dst=−96 nT, a little smaller than that of major geomagnetic storms.     

The Interplanetary Responses to the Great Solar Activities in Late October 2003

Based on the observations of the Sun and the interplanetary medium, a series of solar activities in late October 2003 and their consequences are studied comprehensively. Thirteen X-ray flares with importance greater than M-class, six frontside halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with span angle larger than 100 and three associated eruptions of filament materials are identified by examining lots of solar observations from October 26 to 29. All these flares were associated with type III radio bursts, all the frontside halo CMEs were accompanied by type II or type II-like radio bursts. Particularly, among these activities, two major solar events caused two extraordinary enhancements (exceeding 1000 particles/(cm²s^–1sterMev^–1) of solar energetic particle (SEP) flux intensity near the Earth, two large ejecta with fast shocks preceding, and two great geomagnetic storms with Dst peak value of –363 and –401 nT, respectively. By using a cross correlation technique and a force-free cylindrical flux rope model, the October 29 magnetic cloud associated with the largest CME are analyzed, including its orientation and the sign of its helicity. It is found that the helicity of the cloud is negative, contrary to the regular statistical pattern that negative- and positive-helical interplanetary magnetic clouds would be expected to come from northern and southern solar hemisphere. Moreover, the relationship between the orientation of magnetic cloud and associated filament is discussed. In addition, some discussion concerning multiple-magnetic-cloud structures and SEP events is also given.     

An Approach to the Relationship Between Magnetic Clouds and the Recovery Phase of Geomagnetic Storms

Using an elliptical cross-section model for the study of the magnetic topology of magnetic clouds (MCs) in the interplanetary medium, we develop an analytical approach to their relationship with geomagnetic storms. Assuming an axially symmetric ring current and once we have obtained the disturbances produced in its current density due to the passage of a MC through it (whose axis has a latitude θ, a longitude φ, and its cross-section has an orientation ζ), then we determine the decrease in the value of the geomagnetic field at the Earth's equator, i.e., the D _st index. The D _st model presented allows us to estimate the physical parameters which characterize the symmetric ring current during the recovery phase of the storm time. The theoretical and experimental D _st indexes are compared for four intense geomagnetic storms (D _st<−100 nT), all of them associated with MCs. As seen in the figures presented, the fits are good for every storm. In view of these results we conclude that the effects of a MC over the symmetric ring current can explain the main profile of the recovery phase of a geomagnetic storm.     

Relationships Among Magnetic Clouds, CMES, and Geomagnetic Storms

During solar cycle 23, 82 interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs) were identified by the Magnetic Field Investigation (MFI) team using Wind (1995 – 2003) solar wind plasma and magnetic field data from solar minimum through the maximum of cycle 23. The average occurrence rate is 9.5 MCs per year for the overall period. It is found that some of the anomalies in the frequency of occurrence were during the early part of solar cycle 23: (i) only four MCs were observed in 1999, and (ii) an unusually large number of MCs (17 events) were observed in 1997, just after solar minimum. We also discuss the relationship between MCs, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and geomagnetic storms. During the period 1996 – 2003, almost 8000 CMEs were observed by SOHO-LASCO. The occurrence frequency of MCs appears to be related neither to the occurrence of CMEs as observed by SOHO LASCO nor to the sunspot number. When we included “magnetic cloud-like structures” (MCLs, defined by Lepping, Wu, and Berdichevsky, 2005), we found that the occurrence of the joint set (MCs + MCLs) is correlated with both sunspot number and the occurrence rate of CMEs. The average duration of the MCL structures is ~40% shorter than that of the MCs. The MCs are typically more geoeffective than the MCLs, because the average southward field component is generally stronger and longer lasting in MCs than in MCLs. In addition, most severe storms caused by MCs/MCLs with Dst _min≤ −100 nT occurred in the active solar period.     

Dependence of Geomagnetic Storms on Their Associated Halo CME Parameters

We compare the geoeffective parameters of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We consider 50 front-side full-halo CMEs (FFH CMEs), which are from the list of Michalek, Gopalswamy, and Yashiro (Solar Phys. 246, 399, 2007), whose asymmetric-cone model parameters and earthward-direction parameter were available. For each CME we use its projected velocity [V _p], radial velocity [V _r], angle between cone axis and sky plane [γ] from the cone model, earthward-direction parameter [D], source longitude [L], and magnetic-field orientation [M] of its CME source region. We make a simple linear-regression analysis to find out the relationship between CME parameters and Dst index. The main results are as follows: i) The combined parameters [(V _r D)^1/2 and V _r γ] have higher correlation coefficients [cc] with the Dst index than the other parameters [V _p and V _r]: cc=0.76 for (V _r D)^1/2, cc=0.70 for V _r γ, cc=0.55 for V _r, and cc=0.17 for V _p. ii) Correlation coefficients between V _r γ and Dst index depend on L and M; cc=0.59 for 21 eastern events [E], cc=0.80 for 29 western events [W], cc=0.49 for 17 northward magnetic-field events [N], and cc=0.69 for 33 southward magnetic-field events [S]. iii) Super geomagnetic storms (Dst≤?200 nT) only appear in the western and southward magnetic-field events. The mean absolute Dst values of geomagnetic storms (Dst≤?50 nT) increase with an order of E+N, E+S, W+N, and W+S events; the mean absolute Dst value (169 nT) of W+S events is significantly larger than that (75 nT) of E+N events. Our results demonstrate that not only do the cone-model parameters together with the earthward-direction parameter improve the relationship between CME parameters and Dst index, but also the longitude and the magnetic-field orientation of a FFH CME source region play a significant role in predicting geomagnetic storms.     

Dynamic and Thermal Disappearance of Prominences and Their Geoeffectiveness

This paper is a qualitative study of 42 events of solar filament/prominence sudden disappearances (“disparitions brusques”; henceforth DBs) around two solar minima, 1985 – 1986 and 1994. The studied events were classified as 17 thermal and 25 dynamic disappearances. Associated events, i.e. coronal mass ejections (CMEs), type II bursts, evolution of nearby coronal holes, as well as solar wind speed, and geomagnetic disturbances are discussed. We have found that about 50% of the thermal DBs with adjacent (within 15° from the DB) coronal holes were associated with CMEs within a selected time window. All the studied thermal disappearances with adjacent coronal holes or accompanied by dynamic disappearances were associated with weak and medium geomagnetic storms. Also, nearly 64% of dynamic DBs were associated with CMEs. Ten (40%) dynamic disappearances were associated with intense geomagnetic storms, even when no CMEs was reported, six (24%) dynamic disappearances corresponded to extreme storms, and five (20%) corresponded to medium geomagnetic storms. The extreme geomagnetic storms appeared to be related to combined events, involving dynamic disappearances with adjacent coronal holes or including thermal disappearances. Furthermore, the geomagnetic activity (Dst index) increased if the source was close to the central meridian (±30°). The highest interplanetary magnetic field (B), longest duration, lowest southward direction B _z component, and lowest Dst were highly correlated for all studied events. The Sun – Earth transit time computed from the starting time of the sudden disappearance and the time its effect was measured at Earth was about 4.3 days and was mainly well correlated with the solar wind speed measured in situ (daily value).     

Statistical Analysis of Solar Events Associated with Storm Sudden Commencements over One Year of Solar Maximum During Cycle 23: Propagation from the Sun to the Earth and Effects

Taking the 32 storm sudden commencements (SSCs) listed by the International Service of Geomagnetic Indices (ISGI) of the Observatory de l’Ebre during 2002 (solar activity maximum in Cycle 23) as a starting point, we performed a multi-criterion analysis based on observations (propagation time, velocity comparisons, sense of the magnetic field rotation, radio waves) to associate them with solar sources, identified their effects in the interplanetary medium, and looked at the response of the terrestrial ionized and neutral environment. We find that 28 SSCs can be related to 44 coronal mass ejections (CMEs), 15 with a unique CME and 13 with a series of multiple CMEs, among which 19 (68%) involved halo CMEs. Twelve of the 19 fastest CMEs with speeds greater than 1000 km?s^?1 are halo CMEs. For the 44 CMEs, including 21 halo CMEs, the corresponding X-ray flare classes are: 3 X-class, 19 M-class, and 22 C-class flares. The probability for an SSC to occur is 75% if the CME is a halo CME. Among the 500, or even more, front-side, non-halo CMEs recorded in 2002, only 23 could be the source of an SSC, i.e. 5%. The complex interactions between two (or more) CMEs and the modification of their trajectories have been examined using joint white-light and multiple-wavelength radio observations. The detection of long-lasting type IV bursts observed at metric–hectometric wavelengths is a very useful criterion for the CME–SSC events association. The events associated with the most depressed Dst values are also associated with type IV radio bursts. The four SSCs associated with a single shock at L1 correspond to four radio events exhibiting characteristics different from type IV radio bursts. The solar-wind structures at L1 after the 32 SSCs are 12 magnetic clouds (MCs), 6 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) without an MC structure, 4 miscellaneous structures, which cannot unambiguously be classified as ICMEs, 5 corotating or stream interaction regions (CIRs/SIRs), one CIR caused two SSCs, and 4 shock events; note than one CIR caused two SSCs. The 11 MCs listed in 3 or more MC catalogs covering the year 2002 are associated with SSCs. For the three most intense geomagnetic storms (based on Dst minima) related to MCs, we note two sudden increases of the Dst, at the arrival of the sheath and the arrival of the MC itself. In terms of geoeffectiveness, the relation between the CME speed and the magnetic-storm intensity, as characterized using the Dst magnetic index, is very complex, but generally CMEs with velocities at the Sun larger than 1000 km?s^?1 have larger probabilities to trigger moderate or intense storms. The most geoeffective events are MCs, since 92% of them trigger moderate or intense storms, followed by ICMEs (33%). At best, CIRs/SIRs only cause weak storms. We show that these geoeffective events (ICMEs or MCs) trigger an increased and combined auroral kilometric radiation (AKR) and non-thermal continuum (NTC) wave activity in the magnetosphere, an enhanced convection in the ionosphere, and a stronger response in the thermosphere. However, this trend does not appear clearly in the coupling functions, which exhibit relatively weak correlations between the solar-wind energy input and the amplitude of various geomagnetic indices, whereas the role of the southward component of the solar-wind magnetic field is confirmed. Some saturation appears for Dst values \(< -100\) nT on the integrated values of the polar and auroral indices.     

Characteristics of CMEs associated with solar flares and DH type II radio bursts based on source position

We studied the characteristics of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) associated with solar flares and Deca-Hectometric (DH) type II radio bursts, based on source position during 23rd solar cycle (1997–2007). We classified these CME events into three groups using solar flare locations as, (i) disk events (0–30^∘); (ii) intermediate events (31–60^∘) and (iii) limb events (61–90^∘). Main results from this studies are, (i) the number of CMEs associated with solar flares and DH-type IIs decreases as the source position approaches from disk to limb, (ii) most of the DH CMEs are halo (72%) in disk events and the number of occurrence of halo CMEs decreases from disk to limb, (iii) the average width and speed of limb events (164^∘ and 1447 km s⁻¹) are higher than those of disk events (134^∘ and 1035 km s⁻¹) and intermediate events (146^∘ and 1170 km s⁻¹) and (iv) the average accelerations for disk, intermediate and limb events are −8.2 m s⁻², −10.3 m s⁻² and −4.5 m s⁻² respectively. These analysis of CMEs properties show more dependency on longitude and it gives strong evidence for projection effect.     

Investigation of the Geoeffectiveness of Disk-Centre Full-Halo Coronal Mass Ejections

We studied the occurrence and characteristics of geomagnetic storms associated with disk-centre full-halo coronal mass ejections (DC-FH-CMEs). Such coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be considered as the most plausible cause of geomagnetic storms. We selected front-side full-halo coronal mass ejections detected by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO/LASCO) from the beginning of 1996 till the end of 2015 with source locations between solar longitudes E10 and W10 and latitudes N20 and S20. The number of selected CMEs was 66 of which 33 (50%) were deduced to be the cause of 30 geomagnetic storms with \(\mathrm{Dst} \leq- 50~\mbox{nT}\). Of the 30 geomagnetic storms, 26 were associated with single disk-centre full-halo CMEs, while four storms were associated, in addition to at least one disk-centre full-halo CME, also with other halo or wide CMEs from the same active region. Thirteen of the 66 CMEs (20%) were associated with 13 storms with \(-100~\mbox{nT} < \mbox{Dst} \leq- 50~\mbox{nT}\), and 20 (30%) were associated with 17 storms with \(\mbox{Dst}\leq- 100~\mbox{nT}\). We investigated the distributions and average values of parameters describing the DC-FH-CMEs and their interplanetary counterparts encountering Earth. These parameters included the CME sky-plane speed and direction parameter, associated solar soft X-ray flux, interplanetary magnetic field strength, \(B_{t}\), southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field, \(B_{s}\), solar wind speed, \(V_{sw}\), and the \(y\)-component of the solar wind electric field, \(E_{y}\). We found only a weak correlation between the Dst of the geomagnetic storms associated with DC-FH-CMEs and the CME sky-plane speed and the CME direction parameter, while the correlation was strong between the Dst and all the solar wind parameters (\(B_{t}\), \(B_{s}\), \(V_{sw}\), \(E_{y}\)) measured at 1 AU. We investigated the dependences of the properties of DC-FH-CMEs and the associated geomagnetic storms on different phases of solar cycles and the differences between Solar Cycles 23 and 24. In the rise phase of Solar Cycle 23 (SC23), five out of eight DC-FH-CMEs were geoeffective (\(\mbox{Dst} \leq- 50~\mbox{nT}\)). In the corresponding phase of SC24, only four DC-FH-CMEs were observed, three of which were nongeoeffective (\(\mbox{Dst} > - 50~\mbox{nT}\)). The largest number of DC-FH-CMEs occurred at the maximum phases of the cycles (21 and 17, respectively). Most of the storms with \(\mbox{Dst}\leq- 100~\mbox{nT}\) occurred at or close to the maximum phases of the cycles. When comparing the storms during epochs of corresponding lengths in Solar Cycles 23 and 24, we found that during the first 85 months of Cycle 23 the geoeffectiveness rate of the disk-centre full-halo CMEs was 58% with an average minimum value of the Dst index of \(- 146~\mbox{nT}\). During the corresponding epoch of Cycle 24, only 35% of the disk-centre full-halo CMEs were geoeffective with an average value of Dst of \(- 97~\mbox{nT}\).     

Geoeffectiveness of interplanetary shocks during solar minimum (1995–1996) and solar maximum (2000)

Plasma and magnetic field parameter variations across fast forward interplanetary shocks are analyzed during the last solar cycle minimum (1995–1996, 15 shocks), and maximum year 2000 (50 shocks). It was observed that the solar wind velocity and magnetic field strength variation across the shocks were the parameters better correlated with Dst. Superposed epoch analysis centered on the shock showed that, during solar minimum, B _z profiles had a southward, long-duration variation superposed with fluctuations, whereas in solar maximum the B _z profile presented 2 peaks. The first peak occurred 4 hr after the shock, and seems to be associated with the magnetic field disturbed by the shock in the sheath region. The second peak occurred 19 hr after the shock, and seems to be associated with the ejecta fields. The difference in shape and peak in solar maximum (Dst peak =−50 nT, moderate activity) and minimum (Dst peak =−30 nT, weak activity) in average Dst profiles after shocks are, probably, a consequence of the energy injection in the magnetosphere being driven by different interplanetary southward magnetic structures. A statistical distribution of geomagnetic activity levels following interplanetary shocks was also obtained. It was observed that during solar maximum, 36% of interplanetary shocks were followed by intense (Dst≤−100 nT) and 28% by moderate (−50≤Dst <−100 nT) geomagnetic activity. During solar minimum, 13% and 33% of the shocks were followed by intense and moderate geomagnetic activity, respectively. Thus, during solar maximum a higher relative number of interplanetary shocks might be followed by intense geomagnetic activity than during solar minimum. One can extrapolate, for forecasting goals, that during a whole solar cycle a shock has a probability of around 50–60% to be followed by intense/moderate geomagnetic activity.     

Solar cycle distribution of great geomagnetic storms

The distribution properties of great geomagnetic storms (Dst≤−200 nT) and super geomagnetic storms (Dst≤−300 nT) across the solar cycles (19–23) are investigated. The results show that 73.2% of the great geomagnetic storms took place in the descending phase of the solar cycles. 72.7% of super geomagnetic storms occurred in the descending phase of the solar cycles. About 83% of the great geomagnetic storms appeared during the period from the two years before solar cycle peak and the three years after solar cycle peak time. 90.9% of the super geomagnetic storms appeared between the two years before solar cycle peak and the three years after solar cycle peak. When a solar cycle is very strong, the phenomenon that great geomagnetic storms concentrated during the period from the two years before the solar cycle peak time to the three years after the solar cycle peak time is very prominent. The launch time of space science satellite is suggested according to the distribution properties of great geomagnetic storms and super geomagnetic storms in solar cycles.     

Analysis on the interplanetary causes of the great magnetic storms in solar maximum (2000-2001)

In this paper, we analyze the interplanetary causes of eight great geomagnetic storms during the solar maximum (2000-2001). The result shows that the interplanetary causes were the intense southward magnetic field and the notable characteristic among the causal mechanism is compression. Six of eight great geomagnetic storms were associated with the compression of southward magnetic field, which can be classified into (1) the compression between ICMEs (2) the compression between ICMEs and interplanetary medium. It suggests that the compressed magnetic field would be more geoeffective. At the same time, we also find that half of all great storms were related to successive halo CMEs, most of which originated from the same active region. The interactions between successive halo CMEs usually can lead to greater geoeffectiveness by enhancing their southward field B_s interval either in the sheath region of the ejecta or within magnetic clouds (MCs). The types of them included: the compression between the fast speed transient flow and the slow speed background flow, the multiple MCs, besides shock compression. Further, the linear fit of the D_st versus gives the weights of and Δt as α=2.51 and β=0.75, respectively. This may suggest that the compression mechanism, with associated intense B_s, rather than duration, is the main factor in causing a great geomagnetic storm.     

Comparison of the Characteristics of Magnetic Clouds and Magnetic Cloud-Like Structures for the Events of 1995 – 2003

Using nine years of solar wind plasma and magnetic field data from the Wind mission, we investigated the characteristics of both magnetic clouds (MCs) and magnetic cloud-like structures (MCLs) during 1995 – 2003. A MCL structure is an event that is identified by an automatic scheme (Lepping, Wu, and Berdichevsky, Ann. Geophys. 23, 2687, 2005) with the same criteria as for a MC, but it is not usually identifiable as a flux rope by using the MC (Burlaga et al., J. Geophys. Res. 86, 6673, 1981) fitting model developed by Lepping, Jones, and Burlaga (Geophys. Res. Lett. 95(11), 957, 1990). The average occurrence rate is 9.5 for MCs and 13.6 for MCLs per year for the overall period of interest, and there were 82 MCs and 122 MCLs identified during this period. The characteristics of MCs and MCL structures are as follows: (1) The average duration, Δt, of MCs is 21.1 h, which is 40% longer than that for MCLs (Δt=15 h); (2) the average (minimum B _z found in MC/MCL measured in geocentric solar ecliptic coordinates) is −10.2 nT for MCs and −6 nT for MCLs; (3) the average Dst_min (minimum Dst caused by MCs/MCLs) is −82 nT for MCs and −37 nT for MCLs; (4) the average solar wind velocity is 453 km s⁻¹ for MCs and 413 km s⁻¹ for MCLs; (5) the average thermal speed is 24.6 km s⁻¹ for MCs and 27.7 km s⁻¹ for MCLs; (6) the average magnetic field intensity is 12.7 nT for MCs and 9.8 nT for MCLs; (7) the average solar wind density is 9.4 cm⁻³ for MCs and 6.3 cm⁻³ for MCLs; and (8) a MC is one of the most important interplanetary structures capable of causing severe geomagnetic storms. The longer duration, more intense magnetic field and higher solar wind speed of MCs, compared to those properties of the MCLs, are very likely the major reasons for MCs generally causing more severe geomagnetic storms than MCLs. But the fact that a MC is an important interplanetary structure with respect to geomagnetic storms is not new (e.g., Zhang and Burlaga, J. Geophys. Res. 93, 2511, 1988; Bothmer, ESA SP-535, 419, 2003).     

Kinetic Properties of CMEs Corrected for the Projection Effect

Observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with coronagraphs are subject to a projection effect, which results in statistical errors in many properties of CMEs, such as the eruption speed and the angular width. In this paper, we develop a method to obtain the velocity and angular width distributions of CMEs corrected for the projection effect, and then re-examine the relationship between CMEs and the associated flares. We find that (1) the mean eruption speed is 792 km s⁻¹ and the mean angular width is 59^∘, compared to the values of 549 km s⁻¹ and 77^∘, respectively before the correction; (2) after the correction, the weak correlation between CME speeds and the GOES X-ray peak flux of the flares gets unexpectedly poorer; and (3) before correction, there is a weak correlation between the angular width and the speed of CMEs, whereas the correlation is absent after the correction.     

The Dependence of the Geoeffectiveness of Interplanetary Flux Rope on Its Orientation,with Possible Application to Geomagnetic Storm Prediction

Interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs) are one of the main sources of large non-recurrent geomagnetic storms. With the aid of a force-free flux rope model, the dependence of the intensity of geomagnetic activity (indicated by Dst index) on the axial orientation (denoted by θ and φ in GSE coordinates) of the magnetic cloud is analyzed theoretically. The distribution of the Dst values in the (θ, φ) plane is calculated by changing the axial orientation for various cases. It is concluded that (i) geomagnetic storms tend to occur in the region of θ<0°, especially in the region of θ≲−45°, where larger geomagnetic activity could be created; (ii) the intensity of geomagnetic activity varies more strongly with θ than with φ; (iii) when the parameters B ₀ (the magnetic field strength at the flux rope axis), R ₀ (the radius of the flux rope), or V (the bulk speed) increase, or |D| (the shortest distance between the flux rope axis and the x-axis in GSE coordinates) decreases, a flux rope not only can increase the intensity of geomagnetic activity, but also is more likely to create a storm, however the variation of n (the density) only has a little effect on the intensity; (iv) the most efficient orientation (MEO) in which a flux rope can cause the largest geomagnetic activity appears at φ∼0° or ∼ 180°, and some value of θ which depends mainly on D; (v) the minimum Dst value that could be caused by a flux rope is the most sensitive to changes in B ₀ and V of the flux rope, and for a stronger and/or faster MC, a wider range of orientations will be geoeffective. Further, through analyzing 20 MC-caused moderate to large geomagnetic storms during 1998 – 2003, a long-term prediction of MC-caused geomagnetic storms on the basis of the flux rope model is proposed and assessed. The comparison between the theoretical results and the observations shows that there is a close linear correlation between the estimated and observed minimum Dst values. This suggests that using the ideal flux rope to predict practical MC-caused geomagnetic storms is applicable. The possibility of the long-term prediction of MC-caused geomagnetic storms is discussed briefly.     

Multiwavelength Study on Solar and Interplanetary Origins of the Strongest Geomagnetic Storm of Solar Cycle 23

We study the solar sources of an intense geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 23 that occurred on 20 November 2003, based on ground- and space-based multiwavelength observations. The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) responsible for the above geomagnetic storm originated from the super-active region NOAA 10501. We investigate the H?? observations of the flare events made with a 15 cm solar tower telescope at ARIES, Nainital, India. The propagation characteristics of the CMEs have been derived from the three-dimensional images of the solar wind (i.e., density and speed) obtained from the interplanetary scintillation data, supplemented with other ground- and space-based measurements. The TRACE, SXI and H?? observations revealed two successive ejections (of speeds ???350 and ???100 km?s^?1), originating from the same filament channel, which were associated with two high speed CMEs (???1223 and ???1660 km?s^?1, respectively). These two ejections generated propagating fast shock waves (i.e., fast-drifting type II radio bursts) in the corona. The interaction of these CMEs along the Sun?CEarth line has led to the severity of the storm. According to our investigation, the interplanetary medium consisted of two merging magnetic clouds (MCs) that preserved their identity during their propagation. These magnetic clouds made the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) southward for a long time, which reconnected with the geomagnetic field, resulting the super-storm (Dst _peak=?472 nT) on the Earth.     

Solar Wind Streams And Intense Geomagnetic Storms Observed During 1986–1991

We have analyze the set of 70 intense geomagnetic storms associatedwith D_st decrease of more than 100 nT, observed duringthe period (1986–1991). We have compile these selected intensegeomagnetic storm events and find out their association with twotypes of solar wind streams and different interplanetary parameters.We concluded that the maximum numbers of intense geomagneticstorms are associated with transient disturbances in solar wind streams,which causes strong interplanetary shocks in interplanetary medium.The association of supersonic shocks and magnetic clouds with intensegeomagnetic storms have also been discussed.     

Coronal Mass Ejections Associated with Slow Long Duration Flares

It is well known that there is a temporal relationship between coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and associated flares. The duration of the acceleration phase is related to the duration of the rise phase of a flare. We investigate CMEs associated with slow long duration events (LDEs), i.e. flares with the long rising phase. We determined the relationships between flares and CMEs and analyzed the CME kinematics in detail. The parameters of the flares (GOES flux, duration of the rising phase) show strong correlations with the CME parameters (velocity, acceleration during main acceleration phase, and duration of the CME acceleration phase). These correlations confirm the strong relation between slow LDEs and CMEs. We also analyzed the relation between the parameters of the CMEs, i.e. a velocity, an acceleration during the main acceleration phase, a duration of the acceleration phase, and a height of a CME at the end of the acceleration phase. The CMEs associated with the slow LDEs are characterized by high velocity during the propagation phase, with the median equal to 1423 km?s^?1. In half of the analyzed cases, the main acceleration was low (a<300 m?s^?2), which suggests that the high velocity is caused by the prolonged acceleration phase (the median for the duration of the acceleration phase is equal 90 minutes). The CMEs were accelerated up to several solar radii (with the median ≈?7 R _⊙), which is much higher than in typical impulsive CMEs. Therefore, slow LDEs may potentially precede extremely strong geomagnetic storms. The analysis of slow LDEs and associated CMEs may give important information for developing more accurate space-weather forecasts, especially for extreme events.     

Deflection of coronal mass ejection in the interplanetary medium

A solar coronal mass ejection (CME) is a large-scale eruption of plasma and magnetic fields from the Sun. It is believed to be the main source of strong interplanetary disturbances that may cause intense geomagnetic storms. However, not all front-side halo CMEs can encounter the Earth and produce geomagnetic storms. The longitude distribution of the Earth-encountered front-side halo CMEs (EFHCMEs) has not only an east–west (E–W) asymmetry  (Wang et al., 2002), but also depends on the EFHCMEs' transit speeds from the Sun to 1 AU. The faster the EFHCMEs are, the more westward does their distribution shift, and as a whole, the distribution shifts to the west. Combining the observational results and a simple kinetic analysis, we believe that such E–W asymmetry appearing in the source longitude distribution is due to the deflection of CMEs' propagation in the interplanetary medium. Under the effect of the Parker spiral magnetic field, a fast CME will be blocked by the background solar wind ahead and deflected to the east, whereas a slow CME will be pushed by the following background solar wind and deflected to the west. The deflection angle may be estimated according to the CMEs' transit speed by using a kinetic model. It is shown that slow CMEs can be deflected more easily than fast ones. This is consistent with the observational results obtained by Zhang et al. (2003), that all four Earth-encountered limb CMEs originated from the east. On the other hand, since the most of the EFHCMEs are fast events, the range of the longitude distribution given by the theoretical model is E40°,W70°, which is well consistent with the observational results (E40°,W75°).