Comparative soil CO2 flux measurements and geostatistical estimation methods on Masaya volcano, Nicaragua

We present a comparative study of soil CO₂ flux () measured by five groups (Groups 1–5) at the IAVCEI-CCVG Eighth Workshop on Volcanic Gases on Masaya volcano, Nicaragua. Groups 1–5 measured using the accumulation chamber method at 5-m spacing within a 900 m² grid during a morning (AM) period. These measurements were repeated by Groups 1–3 during an afternoon (PM) period. Measured ranged from 218 to 14,719 g m⁻² day⁻¹. The variability of the five measurements made at each grid point ranged from ±5 to 167%. However, the arithmetic means of fluxes measured over the entire grid and associated total CO₂ emission rate estimates varied between groups by only ±22%. All three groups that made PM measurements reported an 8–19% increase in total emissions over the AM results. Based on a comparison of measurements made during AM and PM times, we argue that this change is due in large part to natural temporal variability of gas flow, rather than to measurement error. In order to estimate the mean and associated CO₂ emission rate of one data set and to map the spatial distribution, we compared six geostatistical methods: arithmetic and minimum variance unbiased estimator means of uninterpolated data, and arithmetic means of data interpolated by the multiquadric radial basis function, ordinary kriging, multi-Gaussian kriging, and sequential Gaussian simulation methods. While the total CO₂ emission rates estimated using the different techniques only varied by ±4.4%, the maps showed important differences. We suggest that the sequential Gaussian simulation method yields the most realistic representation of the spatial distribution of , but a variety of geostatistical methods are appropriate to estimate the total CO₂ emission rate from a study area, which is a primary goal in volcano monitoring research.Editorial responsibility: H Shinohara     

“Pandora box” — Matrix in the calculus of observations

Summary If the condition R(A)=k(n), whereA is the design matrix of the type n × k and k the number of parameters to be determined, is not satisfied, or if the covariance matrixH is singular, it is possible to determine the adjusted value of the unbiased estimable function of the parameters f(), its dispersion D( (x)) and ² as the unbiased estimate of the value of ² by means of an arbitrary g-inversion of the matrix . The matrix , because of its remarkable properties, is called the Pandora Box matrix. The paper gives the proofs of these properties and the manner in which they can be employed in the calculus of observations.     

Attenuation of P,S, and coda waves in Koyna region,India

The attenuation properties of the crust in the Koyna region of the Indian shield have been investigated using 164 seismograms from 37 local earthquakes that occurred in the region. The extended coda normalization method has been used to estimate the quality factors for P waves and S waves , and the single back-scattering model has been used to determine the quality factor for coda waves (Q _c). The earthquakes used in the present study have the focal depth in the range of 1–9 km, and the epicentral distance vary from 11 to 55 km. The values of and Q _c show a dependence on frequency in the Koyna region. The average frequency dependent relationships (Q = Q ₀ f ⁿ) estimated for the region are , and . The ratio is found to be greater than one for the frequency range considered here (1.5–18 Hz). This ratio, along with the frequency dependence of quality factors, indicates that scattering is an important factor contributing to the attenuation of body waves in the region. A comparison of Q _c and in the present study shows that for frequencies below 4 Hz and for the frequencies greater than 4 Hz. This may be due to the multiple scattering effect of the medium. The outcome of this study is expected to be useful for the estimation of source parameters and near-source simulation of earthquake ground motion, which in turn are required in the seismic hazard assessment of a region.     

Geochemical monitoring of the 2002–2003 eruption at Stromboli volcano (Italy): precursory changes in the carbon and helium isotopic composition of fumarole gases and thermal waters

Significant changes in the helium and carbon isotopic composition of shallow thermal waters vs. gas and a crater fumarolic gas have been recorded at Stromboli prior and during the 2002–2003 eruption. The³He/⁴He ratios corrected for air contamination (Rc/Ra), and δ¹³C of fumarolic gases gradually increased from May to November 2002 before the eruption onset. These variations imply early degassing of a gas-rich magma at depth that likely fed both the intense Strombolian activity and small lava overflows recorded during that period. The lava effusion of late December 2002 was shortly preceded by a marked Rc/Ra decrease both in water and fumarolic gases. Comparison of He/CO₂ and CH₄/CO₂ ratios in dissolved gas and with values rules out the Rc/Ra decrease due to an increasing input of radiogenic⁴He. The Rc/Ra decrease is attributed to the He isotope fractionation during rapid magma ascent and degassing. A new uprising of ³He-rich magma probably occurred in January to February 2003, when Rc/Ra ratios displayed the highest values in dissolved gases ever measured before (4.56 Rc/Ra). The increase in He/CO₂ and CH₄/CO₂ ratios and decrease in δ¹³C of dissolved CO₂ was recorded after the 5 April 2003 explosive paroxysm, likely caused by enhanced gas-water interaction inducing CO₂ dissolution. No anomalous Rc/Ra values were recorded in the same period, when usual Strombolian activity gradually resumed.Editorial responsibility: H Shinohara     

The dynamics of magma mixing in a rising magma batch

The conditions under which two magmas can become mixed within a rising magma batch are investigated by scaling analyses and fluid-dynamical experiments. The results of scaling analyses show that the fluid behaviours in a squeezed conduit are determined mainly by the dimensionless number where ₁ is the viscosity of the fluid, U is the velocity, g is the acceleration due to gravity, is the density difference between the two fluids, and R is the radius of the tube. The parameter I represents a balance between the viscous effects in the uppermost magma which prevent it from being moved off the conduit walls, and the buoyancy forces which tend to keep the interface horizontal. The experiments are carried out using fluid pairs of various density and viscosity contrasts in a squeezed vinyl tube. They show that overturning of the initial density stratification and mixing occur when I>order 10^-1; the two fluids remain stratified when I 10^-3. Transitional states are observed when 10^-3<I<10^-1. These results are nearly independent of Reynolds number and viscosity ratio in the range of and Re ₁<300. Applying these results to magmas shows that silicic to intermediate magmas overlying mafic magma will be prone to mixing in a rising magma batch. This mechanism can explain some occurrences of small-volume mixed lava flows.     

Empirische Untersuchung zur Frage der Beziehung zwischen durchschnittlicher und kennzeichnender Wellenperiode im Seegang

Zusammenfassung Als Zusammenhang zwischen der kennzeichnenden Wellenperiode und der durchschnittlichen Periode im Seegang wird die Formel angesetzt. Mit Hilfe empirischer Unterlagen wird nachgewiesen, daßc eine Funktion des von D. E. Cartwright und M. S. Longuet-Higgins [1956] eingeführten Spektralparameters ist. Es wird eine vorläufige quantitative Beziehung zwischenc und abgeleitet.

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Empirical investigations of the relation between the mean and the significant wave period in the sea

Summary It is supposed that the formula represents the relation between the significant wave period and the mean period in the sea. With the aid of empirical data it is demonstrated thatc is a function of the spectral parameter introduced by D. E. Cartwright and M. S. Longuet-Higgins [1956]. A preliminary quantitative relation betweenc and is derived.

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Etudes empiriques de la relation entre la période moyenne et la période significative des vagues dans la houle

Résumé On suppose que la formule représente la relation entre la période significative des vagues et la période moyenne dans la houle. A l'aide des données empiriques on montre quec est une fonction du paramètre spectral , introduit par D. E. Cartwright et M. S. Longuet-Higgins [1956]. Une relation quantitative préliminaire entrec et est dérivée.

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An algorithm for the optimum distribution of a regional seismic network — II. An analysis of the accuracy of location of local earthquakes depending on the number of seismic stations

Summary Seven optimal networks consisting of 4 to 10 stations are compared for a given region, where velocity-depth profiles and the distribution of seismic intensity are known. Assuming that the standard error of arrival time is _t =0.05 s and the standard errors of the parameters of velocity-depth profiles are equal to 5% of their values, the average standard errors of the origin time and focus coordinates are estimated. The application of optimum methods to the planning of seismic networks in the Lublin Coal Basin is presented, and maps of standard errors of origin time , depth and epicenter ( _xy ) for the case of an optimum network of 6 seismic stations are given.     

Airborne Gradiometry Error Analysis

Gravity gradiometry is one of the older methods of determining the Earth’s local gravitational field, but lies in the shadow of more conventional static and moving-base gravimeter-based systems. While the static torsion balance appears to have been relegated to the museum, support for the airborne and space-borne differential accelerometer (gradiometer) continues so as to overcome limitations in spatial resolution and accuracy inherent in ordinary moving-base gravimetry. One airborne system exists, building on 30 year old technology concepts, and new technologies (e.g., cold-atom interferometry) promise significant improvements. Concomitant advances are required to measure accurately the angular velocity and angular acceleration of the platform, which inseparably combine (in an absolute sense) with the Earth’s gravitational gradients. A numerical analysis of instrument errors, with simulated aircraft dynamics, shows that navigation-grade gyros are just sufficient to account for these effects in gradiometers with 1E/ sensitivity. More accurate instruments, with 0.1 E/ sensitivity, require commensurate sensitivity in the gyros, of the order of 0.01°/h/ = 1.5\times10^{−4 °} \ for typical survey aircraft dynamics. On the other hand, typical orientation errors in the platform, which are problematic for vector gravimetry, are much less of a concern in gradiometry. They couple to the gradient signals and affect only the very low frequencies of the total gradient error.     

The sunspot areas and the relative sunspot numbers

Summary Within each sunspot cycle the yearly means (A) of the daily sunspot areas increase faster than the corresponding sunspot numbers (R) from the minimum to the maximum of solar activity and then decrease also faster than these numbers till the next minimum. Relation (A)=16.7 (R), frequently used so far, is approximately valid only for the years in the vicinity of the sunspot maximum. Instead of that, author gives the relations: for the years preceding the sunspot maximum, for the years following the sunspot maximum, wherea andb are constants,T _R is the time of rise of the corresponding sunspot cycle expressed in years, andk takes the valuek=0 for the year of maximum solar activity andk=1, 2, 3, ... for the first, second, third ... year preceding or following that of maximum solar activity. The monthly means of the daily sunspot areas show a similar variation, but in this case the ratioq=AR varies with a greater amplitude both within each sunspot cycle and from cycle to cycle. The values ofq corresponding to all months of a given year in the sunspot cycle are contained between two limits depending on the time of rise.

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Résumé Les valeurs moyennes (A) des aires diurnes des taches solaires à chaque année depuis 1878 augmentent plus rapidement du minimum vers le maximum de l'activité solaire que les nombres de Wolf correspondants (R). Elles diminuent aussi plus rapidement que les nombres de Wolf du maximum vers le minimum de l'activité solaire. La relation adoptée (A)=16.7 (R) ne s'applique pas avec une approximation satisfaisante que seulement pour les années voisines celle du maximum de l'activité solaire. L'auteur propose les relations: pour les années qui précédent le maximum, pour les années qui suivent le maximum, oùa, b sont des constantes,T _R le temps d'ascension du cycle correspondant exprimé en années et la parametrek prend la valeurk=0 à l'année du maximum de l'activité solaire etk=1, 2, 3 ... pour les années qui précédent et qui suivent celle du maximum. Les valeurs moyennes des aires diurnes des taches à chaque mois, suivent la même marche mais dans ce cas le rapportq=AR present des larges variations. Il oscille pourtant extre deux limites qui dependent du temps d'ascension.

     

Recherches complémentaires sur le bases du calculateur météorologique «Temp»

Résumé La formule de base, traduisant une propriété analytique d'une classe très générale de fonctions, est un corollaire du théorème fondamental démontré dans un mémoire précédent, d'après lequel, étant donnés une fonction continue,p(, ,t) des points (, ) d'une surface régulière fermée et du temps et le champ d'un vecteur vitesse de transfert ou d'advection tangent à et ayant des lignes de flux fermées et régulières, il existe un opérateur spatial, linéaire, non singulierA tel que la fonctionA(p+Const.) soit purement advective par rapport a (sans creusement ni comblement). Ce théorème peut être exprimé par l'équation , où est un opérateur spatial, linéaire et non singulier, fonction deA.La détermination de peut être faite, soit en comparant deux formes différentes de la solution générale de l'équation en , soit en utilisant un raisonnement a priori très simple. On arrive ainsi au résultat pour un certain scalaireu(, ).Dans le cas oùp(, ,t) est la perturbation de la pression sur la surface du géoïde l'équation résulte aussi, comme nous l'avons montré dans le mémoire précédent, de notre théorie hydrodynamique des perturbations. On montre ici que la même équation peut encore être déduite de l'équation de continuité associée à la condition d'équilibre quasi statique selon la verticale.Comme applications de la formule de base (solution générale de l'équation enM), on étudie les problèmes suivants: 1^o creusement et comblement en général; 2^o creusement et comblement des centres et des cols; 3^o mouvement des centres et des cols; 4^o instabilité d'un champ moyen; 5^o propriétés spatiales des champsp(, ,t) et des vecteurs d'advection analytiques.Après une discussion des erreurs de la prévision d'un champp(, ,t) par la formule de base, du fait des erreurs des observations et du fonctionnement du calculateur, on examine quelques particularités du transfert ou advection d'un champf ₀(, ) par le vecteur . Enfin, le dernier chapitre du mémoire donne des éclaircissements complémentaires sur la structure du calculateur électronique «Temp» (qui effectue automatiquement les opérations mathématiques de la formule de base) et expose l'état actuel de sa construction.

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Summary The basic formula, expressing an analytical property of a very general class of functions, is a corollary of the fundamental theorem, proved in a previous paper, according to which, given a functionp(, ,t) of the points (, ) of a closed regular surface and of the time, and a transfer or advection velocity vector tangent to and having regular closed streamlines, there is a spatial, linear, non singular operatorA such thatA(p+const.) is a purely advective function in respect to (no deepening). This theorem can be expressed by the equation where is a spatial, linear, non singular operator depending onA.The determination of can be attained, either by the comparison of two different forms of the general solution of the -equation, or by a simple a priori reasonning. The conclusion is thus reached that for a certain scalaru(, ).Whenp(, ,t) is the pressure perturbation at sea level, it was shown, in the preceding paper, that the equation can also be derived from our hydrodynamical perturbation theory. We now show that for this particular case, the same equation is also a consequence of the equation of continuity together with the condition of quasi statical vertical equilibrium.The following problems are then analysed by means of the basic formula: 1^o deepening and filling in general; 2^o deepening and filling of the centres and cols; 3^o motion of the centres and cols; 4^o instability of a mean field; 5^o spatial properties of the analytical fields and advection vectors .The errors in the forecast of a field,p(, ,t) by means of the basic formula, due to the observational and computational errors, are discussed, and some peculiarities of the transfer or advection of a fieldf ₀(, ) by are examined. Finally, complementary points are disclosed on the structure of the electronic computer «Temp» which performs automatically the mathematical operations of the basic formula, and a brief report is given of the present state of its construction.

     

Generous statistical tests

A common statistical problem is deciding which of two possible sources, A and B, of a contaminant is most likely the actual source. The situation considered here, based on an actual problem of polychlorinated biphenyl contamination discussed below, is one in which the data strongly supports the hypothesis that source A is responsible. The problem approach here is twofold: One, accurately estimating this extreme probability. Two, since the statistics involved will be used in a legal setting, estimating the extreme probability in such a way as to be as generous as is possible toward the defendant’s claim that the other site B could be responsible; thereby leaving little room for argument when this assertion is shown to be highly unlikely. The statistical testing for this problem is modeled by random variables {X _i } and the corresponding sample mean the problem considered is providing a bound ɛ for which for a given number a ₀. Under the hypothesis that the random variables {X _i } satisfy E(X _i ) ≤ μ, for some 0  < μ < 1, statistical tests are given, described as “generous”, because ɛ is maximized. The intent is to be able to reject the hypothesis that a ₀ is a value of the sample mean while eliminating any possible objections to the model distributions chosen for the {X _i } by choosing those distributions which maximize the value of ɛ for the test used.     

Estimation of coda wave attenuation in East Central Iran

The attenuation of coda waves, Q _c , has been estimated in Zarand, Jiroft, and Bam regions of east central Iran using a single back-scattering model of S-coda envelopes. For this purpose, the recordings of 97 earthquakes by three seismic networks and a local strong ground motion network have been used. In this research, the frequency-dependent Q _c values are estimated at central frequencies of 1.5, 3, 6, 8, 12, 16, and 24 Hz using different lapse time windows from 20 to 60 s. The frequency-dependent relationships obtained are for Zarand, for Jiroft, and for Bam region. From the strong ground motion data, we obtain the relation . The Q _c frequency-dependent relationship for the entire region of east central Iran from all data (both seismograms and accelerograms) is . The average Q _c values estimated and their frequency dependent relationships correlate well with a highly heterogeneous and highly tectonically active region. Results also show that the attenuation is higher in Bam region compared to Zarand and Jiroft regions.     

Sull'approssimazione numerica di una variabile casuale normale,con applicaztone agli errori d'osservazione

Riassunto Data una variabile casuale X che segue la legge normale di probabilitl con valor medio a ed error medio y 1'A. considera un'altra variabile casuale che prende il valore intero r quando r–1/2

Summary Given a random variable X following the normal probability law, with expectation a and standard error p, the author considers another random variable , that takes the entire value r when r–1/2     

Calculating the azimuth of mountain waves, using the effect of tilted fine-scale stable layers on VHF radar echoes

A simple method is described, based on standard VHF wind-profiler data, where imbalances of echo power between four off-vertical radar beams, caused by mountain waves, can be used to calculate the orientation of the wave pattern. It is shown that the mountain wave azimuth (direction of the horizontal component of the wavevector), is given by the vector are radar echo powers, measured in dB, in beams pointed away from vertical by the same angle towards north, south, east and west respectively, and W is the vertical wind velocity. The method is applied to Aberystwyth MST radar data, and the calculated wave vector usually, but not always, points into the low-level wind direction. The mean vertical wind at Aberystwyth, which may also be affected by tilted aspect-sensitive layers, is investigated briefly using the entire radar output 1990–1997. The mean vertical-wind profile is inconsistent with existing theories, but a new mountain-wave interpretation is proposed.     

Relations entre le creusement et le comblement des perturbations et leur déplacement

Résumé On commence par définir le creusement et le comblement d'une fonctionp(, t) du tempst et des points (, ) d'une surface régulière fermée en se donnant, sur cette surface, un vecteur vitesse d'advection ou de transfert tangent à . Le creusement (ou le comblement) est la variation dep sur les particules fictives se déplaçant constamment et partout à la vitesse , A chaque vecteur et pour un mêmep(, ,t) correspond naturellement une fonction creusementC (, ,t) admissible a priori; mais une condition analytique très générale (l'intégrale du creusement sur toute la surface fermée du champ est nulle à chaque instant), à laquelle satisfont les fonctions de perturbation sur les surfaces géopotentielles, permet de restreindre beaucoup la généralité des vecteurs d'advection admissibles a priori et conduit à des vecteurs de la forme: , oùT est un scalaire régulier, () une fonction régulière de la latitude , le vecteur unitaire des verticales ascendantes etR/2 une constante. Ces vecteurs sont donc une généralisation naturelle des vitesses géostrophiques attachées à tout scalaire régulier. Dans le cas oùp(, ,t) est la perturbation de la pression sur la surface du géoïde, le vecteur d'advection par rapport auquel on doit définir le creusement est précisément une vitesse géostrophique: on a alors ()=sin etT un certain champ bien défini de température moyenne.On déduit ensuite une formule générale de géométrie et de cinématique différentielles reliant la vitesse de déplacement d'un centre ou d'un col d'un champp(, ,t) à son champ de creusementC (, ,t) et au vecteur d'advection correspondant. Cette formule peut être transformée et prend la forme d'une relation générale entre le creusement (ou le comblement) d'un centre ou d'un col et la vitesse de son déplacement, sans que le vecteur d'advection intervienne explicitement. On analyse alors les conséquences de ces formules dans les cas suivants: 1^o) perturbations circulaires dans le voisinage du centre; 2^o) perturbations ayant, dans le voisinage du centre, un axe de symétrie normal ou tangent à la vitesse du centre; 3^o) évolution normale des cyclones tropicaux.Finalement, on examine les relations qui existent entre le creusement ou le comblement d'un champ, le vecteur d'advection et la configuration des iso-lignes du champ dans le voisinage d'un centre.Ces considérations permettent d'expliquer plusieurs propriétés bien connues du comportement des perturbations dans différentes régions.

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Summary The deepening and filling (development) of a functionp(, ,t) of the timet and the points (, ) of a regular closed surface is first of all defined, in respect to a given advection or transfer velocity field tangent to , as the variation ofp on any fictitious particle moving constantly and everywhere with the velocity . For a givenp(, ,t) and to any there corresponds a well defined development fieldC (, ,t). All theseC fields are a priori admissible, but a very general analytical condition of the perturbation fields in synoptic meteorology (the integral of the development fieldC (, ,t) on any geopotential surface vanishes at any moment), leads to an important restriction to advection vectors of the form: , whereT is any regular scalar, () any regular function of latitude, the unit vector of the ascending verticals andR/2 a constant. These vectors are a natural generalisation of the geostrophic velocities attached to any regular scalar. Whenp(, ,t) is the pressure perturbation at sea level, its development must be defined in respect to a geostrophic advection vector belonging to the above defined class of vectors with ()=sin andT a well defined mean temperature field.A general formula of the differential geometry and kinematics ofp(, ,t) is then derived, giving the velocity of any centre and col of ap(, ,t) as a function of the advection vector and the corresponding development fieldC (, ,t). This formula can be transformed and takes the form of a general relation between the deepening (and filling) of a centre (or a col) of ap(, ,t) and its displament velocity, the advection vector appearing no more explicitly. A detailed analysis of the consequences of these formulae is then given for the following cases: 1^o) circular perturbations in the vicinity of a centre; 2^o) perturbations having, in the vicinity of a centre, an axis of symmetry normal or tangent to the velocity of the centre; 3^o) normal evolution of the tropical cyclones.Finally, the relations between the developmentC (, ,t) of a fieldp(, ,t), the advection velocity vector and the configuration of the iso-lines in the vicinity of a centre are analysed.These theoretical results give a rational explanation of several well known properties of the behaviour of the perturbations in different geographical regions.

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Communication à la 2ème Assemblée de la «Società Italiana di Geofisica e Meteorologia» (Gênes, 23–25 Avril 1954).     

Moment inequality and complete convergence of moving average processes under asymptotically linear negative quadrant dependence assumptions

Let {Y, Y _i , −∞ < i < ∞} be a doubly infinite sequence of identically distributed and asymptotically linear negative quadrant dependence random variables, {a _i , −∞ < i < ∞} an absolutely summable sequence of real numbers. We are inspired by Wang et al. (Econometric Theory 18:119–139, 2002) and Salvadori (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 17:116–140, 2003). And Salvadori (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 17:116–140, 2003) have obtained Linear combinations of order statistics to estimate the quantiles of generalized pareto and extreme values distributions. In this paper, we prove the complete convergence of under some suitable conditions. The results obtained improve and generalize the results of Li et al. (1992) and Zhang (1996). The results obtained extend those for negative associated sequences and ρ^*-mixing sequences. CIC Number O211, AMS (2000) Subject Classification 60F15, 60G50 Research supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China     

A generalized method for various data processing techniques in gravity interpretation

Summary The various data processing techniques (downward continuation, first and second derivatives and their downward continuation) used in gravity interpretation, are analogous to different types of linear filtering operations whose theoretical filter (amplitude) responses can be derived from by suitably choosingN andd, whereu andv are angular frequencies in two perpendicular directions,d the height or depth of continuation in unit of grid interval; andN denotes the order of the vertical derivative. By incorporating a mathematical smoothing function, ( being the smoothing parameter) in the theoretical filter response function, it has been possible, by selecting a suitable value of smoothing parameter, to establish an approximate equivalence of the effect of the mathematical smoothing with the inherent smoothing introduced, because of the numerical approximation (approximation error) for practically all data-processing techniques. This approximate equivalence leads to a generalized method of computing sets of weight coefficients for various data-processing techniques from filter response matching method. Several sets of weight coefficients thus have been computed with different smoothing parameter. The amplitude response curves of the various existing sets of weight coefficients have also been calculated for assessing the quality of the approximation in achieving the desired filtering operation.     

Hydrated cluster ion formation rates and winter anomaly

Expressions for the effective cluster formation rates are written in terms of neutral densities and recent laboratory data on reaction rate coefficients. At D-region heights these parameters show seasonal variations due to mesospheric temperature changes. Reduction in cluster formation rates for winter months would result in a decrease in the concentration of hydrated ions and hence reduced effective recombination coefficient for electrons. The results show latitude and seasonal variations which are similar to that of a normal winter anomaly in radio wave absorption.     

Lyapunov exponent and dimension of the strange attractor of elastic frictional system

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