Outcomes and policy recommendations from the IPCC/AFOS working group on climate change response strategies and emission reductions

The most promising response strategies are

-sustainable practices in agriculture to improve productivity on existing arable land especially in developing countries to meet the food requirements of a still rising population

-sustainable practices in forestry both in tropical forests as well as in forests of temperate and boreal zones, in the latter case to achieve sufficient fast adaption to climate change.

     

Economics of climate policy and collective decision making

This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that

• The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO₂ concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run.
• Exclusion of possibility to trade CO₂ emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries.
• Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy.

The third part presents results of a survey conducted among the main economic and environmental associations in Switzerland. The survey reveals conflicting views on economic instruments. It shows how the social acceptability of these instruments can be improved in taking explicitly into account these opposing views of special interest groups. Therefore, policy scenarios should be selected in combining techno-economic models with empirical studies about their political and normative context.     

Limitations of an eddy-correlation technique for the determination of the carbon dioxide and sensible heat fluxes

A modified infrared CO₂ gas analyzer, a small thermocouple assembly, a heated-thermocouple anemometer for horizontal wind, and a propeller-type vertical wind sensor were used to measure the eddy fluxes of heat and CO₂ above a corn crop. Experimental results of these fluxes are discussed. The main sources of errors of the eddy fluxes using these instruments were estimated:

1. Sensors with a time constant of 0.5 s appear to be fast enough to detect most of the vertical CO₂ transfer as long as the sensors are located at least one meter above the crop surface.
2. The deviation from steady-state conditions for 10-min periods was found to have a significant effect on the eddy flux estimates.
3. Temperature fluctuations of the air sample passing through the CO₂ infrared gas analyzer were found to be non-negligible but could be easily corrected.
4. A 1° misalignment of the vertical anemometer affected these eddy fluxes by less than 10% under all circumstances studied.

     

Atmospheric boundary layer research at Cabauw

At Cabauw, The Netherlands, a 213 m high mast specifically built for meteorological research has been operational since 1973. Its site, construction, instrumentation and observation programs are reviewed. Regarding analysis of the boundary layer at Cabauw, the following subjects are discussed:

- terrain roughness;

- Monin-Obukhov theory in practice;

- the structure of stable boundary layers;

- observed evolution of fog layers;

- inversion rise and early morning entrainment;

- use of the geostrophic wind as a predictor for wind profiles;

- height variation of wind climate statistics;

- air pollution applications: long range transport and short range dispersion;

- dependence of sound wave propagation on boundary-layer structure;

- testing of weather and climate models.

     

The warming of the industrialized middle latitudes 1985–2050: Causes and consequences

The dominant influence on global climate for the indefinite future is expected to be a warming in the middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The speed of the warming is uncertain. The warming in winter may exceed 1.0 degree per decade. The warming in summer is expected to be less. The cause is the accumulation of infra-red absorptive gases, especially CO₂ and CH₄, in the atmosphere. The sources are the combustion of fossil fuels, the destruction of forests and their soils, and, possibly, the warming itself, which can be expected to stimulate decay of organic matter in soils. The warming in these latitudes is expected to be accompanied by increased precipitation as climatic zones migrate generally poleward. A 1 °C change in mean temperature is equivalent to a change in latitude of 100–150 km. The changes expected are rapid enough to exceed the capacity of forests to migrate or otherwise adapt. Forest trees will die at their warmer and drier limits of distribution more rapidly than forests can be regenerated in regions where climates become favorable. The destruction of forests will add further to the releases of C to the atmosphere. There is no equivalent countervailing storage that has been identified. The result suggests that a significant enhancement of the warming beyond current predictions is to be expected. An open-ended, accelerating warming of the Earth at rates that bring rapid changes in climatic zones, drive forests to impoverishment, and raise sea level rapidly is beyond the limits of simple adjustments of the human enterprise. Steps to stabilize the atmospheric composition seem inevitable. Because the total emissions of C to the atmosphere are not known, the current rate of transfer from the atmosphere to the oceans is uncertain. But whatever the current total release to the atmosphere, the annual atmospheric increase is about 3.0 G-tons of C as CO₂. At least three possibilities exist for reducing or eliminating the imbalance and moving toward long-term stability:

1. a reduction in the use of fossil fuels globally, now estimated as the source of about 5.6 G-tons of C annually;
2. a reduction or cessation of deforestation, now estimated as releasing 1–3 G-tons annually;
3. a vigorous program of reforestation that would remove from the atmosphere into storage in plants and soils about 1 G-ton of C annually for each 2 × 10⁶ km² tract reforested.

Further adjustments in emissions will be appropriate as experience accumulates. Such steps are appropriate now and possible. They will bring widespread ancillary benefits to the human enterprise.     

The internal boundary layer — A review

A review is given of relevant work on the internal boundary layer (IBL) associated with:

1. Small-scale flow in neutral conditions across an abrupt change in surface roughness,
2. Small-scale flow in non-neutral conditions across an abrupt change in surface roughness, temperature or heat/moisture flux,
3. Mesoscale flow, with emphasis on flow across the coastline for both convective and stably stratified conditions.

The major theme in all cases is on the downstream, modified profile form (wind and temperature), and on the growth relations for IBL depth.     

Time-scale and state dependence of the carbon-cycle feedback to climate

Climate and atmospheric CO₂ concentration are intimately coupled in the Earth system: CO₂ influences climate through the greenhouse effect, but climate also affects CO₂ through its impact on the amount of carbon stored on land and in the ocean. The change in atmospheric CO₂ as a response to a change in temperature ( $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ ) is a useful measure to quantify the feedback between the carbon cycle and climate. Using an ensemble of experiments with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity we show a pronounced time-scale dependence of $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ . A maximum is found on centennial scales with $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ values for the model ensemble in the range 5–12 ppm °C^?1, while lower values are found on shorter and longer time scales. These results are consistent with estimates derived from past observations. Up to centennial scales, the land carbon response to climate dominates the CO₂ signal in the atmosphere, while on longer time scales the ocean becomes important and eventually dominates on multi-millennial scales. In addition to the time-scale dependence, modeled $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ show a distinct dependence on the initial state of the system. In particular, on centennial time-scales, high $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ values are correlated with high initial land carbon content. A similar relation holds also for the CMIP5 models, although for $\varDelta CO_{2}/\varDelta T$ computed from a very different experimental setup. The emergence of common patterns like this could prove to usefully constrain the climate–carbon cycle feedback.     

CO2 abatement goals for international shipping

The Paris Agreement, which entered into force in 2016, sets the ambitious climate change mitigation goal of limiting the global temperature increase to below 2°C and ideally 1.5°C. This puts a severe constraint on the remaining global GHG emissions budget. While international shipping is also a contributor to anthropogenic GHG emissions, and CO₂ in particular, it is not included in the Paris Agreement. This article discusses how a share of a global CO₂ budget over the twenty-first century could be apportioned to international shipping, and, using a range of future trade scenarios, explores the requisite cuts to the CO₂ intensity of shipping. The results demonstrate that, under a wide range of assumptions, existing short-term levers of efficiency must be urgently exploited to achieve mitigation commensurate with that required from the rest of the economy, with virtually full decarbonization of international shipping required as early as before mid-century.

Key policy insights

• Regulatory action is key to ensuring the international shipping sector’s long-term sustainability.

• For the shipping industry to deliver mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement, virtually full decarbonization needs to be achieved.

• In the near term, immediate and rapid exploitation of available mitigation measures is of critical importance.

• Any delay in the transition will increase the risk of stranded assets, or diminish the chances of meeting the Paris Agreement's temperature commitments.

     

Wind profiles at the Boulder Tower

Analysis of wind profiles at the Boulder Tower (BAO) leads to these conclusions:

1. The variation of roughness with wind direction found earlier is confirmed. Roughness lengths measured on the tower are larger than those measured close to the surface.
2. The profiles and measurements of Reynolds stress are consistent with a von-Karman constant of 0.35.
3. The form φ_m=(1?15z/L)^-1/3 fits best in the range -0.6 < z/L < 0. In the range 0 < z/L < 0.5, θ _m ～ 1 + 4.7z/L provides a good fit to the observations. For z/L < 0.1, φ _m also depends on h, the thickness of the PBL. For z/L < -0.6, Φ _m approaches the constant 0.5, in contrast to all previous suggestions. For larger stabilities, the upper level is usually not in the surface layer, and wind ratios become independent of z/L.
4. With snow cover, the effective roughness diminishes to about 1 cm, even for directions for which the roughness length without snow is large.
5. Estimation of winds at 100 or 150 m from information near the surface is best for similarity theory provided that the ratio of height to Monin-Obukhov L is less than 0.1. For larger z/L, simple power laws seem more appropriate.

     

National contributions to climate change mitigation from agriculture: allocating a global target

Globally, agriculture and related land use change contributed about 17% of the world’s anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2010 (8.4 GtCO₂e yr^?1), making GHG mitigation in the agriculture sector critical to meeting the Paris Agreement’s 2°C goal. This article proposes a range of country-level targets for mitigation of agricultural emissions by allocating a global target according to five approaches to effort-sharing for climate change mitigation: responsibility, capability, equality, responsibility-capability-need and equal cumulative per capita emissions. Allocating mitigation targets according to responsibility for total historical emissions or capability to mitigate assigned large targets for agricultural emission reductions to North America, Europe and China. Targets based on responsibility for historical agricultural emissions resulted in a relatively even distribution of targets among countries and regions. Meanwhile, targets based on equal future agricultural emissions per capita or equal per capita cumulative emissions assigned very large mitigation targets to countries with large agricultural economies, while allowing some densely populated countries to increase agricultural emissions. There is no single ‘correct’ framework for allocating a global mitigation goal. Instead, using these approaches as a set provides a transparent, scientific basis for countries to inform and help assess the significance of their commitments to reducing emissions from the agriculture sector.

Key policy insights

• Meeting the Paris Agreement 2°C goal will require global mitigation of agricultural non-CO₂ emissions of approximately 1 GtCO₂e yr^?1 by 2030.

• Allocating this 1 GtCO₂e yr^?1 according to various effort-sharing approaches, it is found that countries will need to mitigate agricultural business-as-usual emissions in 2030 by a median of 10%. Targets vary widely with criteria used for allocation.

• The targets calculated here are in line with the ambition of the few countries (primarily in Africa) that included mitigation targets for the agriculture sector in their (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions.

• For agriculture to contribute to meeting the 2°C or 1.5°C targets, countries will need to be ambitious in pursuing emission reductions. Technology development and transfer will be particularly important.

     

Can developed economies combat dangerous anthropogenic climate change without near-term reductions from developing economies?

Developing economy greenhouse gas emissions are growing rapidly relative to developed economy emissions (Boden et al. 2010) and developing economies as a group have greater emissions than developed economies. These developments are expected to continue (U.S. Energy Information Administration 2010), which has led some to question the effectiveness of emissions mitigation in developed economies without a commitment to extensive mitigation action from developing economies. One often heard argument against proposed U.S. legislation to limit carbon emissions to mitigate climate change is that, without participation from large developing economies like China and India, stabilizing temperature at 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial (United Nations 2009), or even reducing global emissions levels, would be impossible (Driessen 2009; RPC Energy Facts 2009) or prohibitively expensive (Clarke et al. 2009). Here we show that significantly delayed action by rapidly developing countries is not a reason to forgo mitigation efforts in developed economies. This letter examines the effect of a scenario with no explicit international climate policy and two policy scenarios, full global action and a developing economy delay, on the probability of exceeding various global average temperature changes by 2100. This letter demonstrates that even when developing economies delay any mitigation efforts until 2050 the effect of action by developed economies will appreciably reduce the probability of more extreme levels of temperature change. This paper concludes that early carbon mitigation efforts by developed economies will considerably affect the distribution over future climate change, whether or not developing countries begin mitigation efforts in the near term.     

Bulk characteristics of heat transfer in the unstable,baroclinic atmospheric boundary layer

Field data for the unstable, baroclinic, atmospheric boundary layer over land and over the sea are considered in the context of a general similarity theory of vertical heat transfer. The dependence of δθ/θ_* upon logarithmic functions of h _c z _T and stability (through the similarity function C) is clearly demonstrated in the data. The combined data support the conventional formulation for the heat transfer coefficient δθ/θ_* when,

1. the surface scaling length is z _T (« z ₀), the height at which the surface temperature over land is obtained by extrapolation of the temperature profile
2. the height scale is taken as the depth of convective mixing h _c
3. the temperature profile equivalent of the von Karman constant is taken as 0.41
4. areal average, rather than single point, values of δθ are employed in strongly baroclinic conditions. No significant effect of baroclinity or the height scale ratio as proposed in the general theory is found. Variations in C about a linear regression relation against stability are most probably due to uncertainties in the areal surface temperature and to experimental errors in general temperature measurements.

     

The scavenging of nitrate by clouds and precipitation

A model with spectral microphysics was developed to describe the scavenging of nitrate aerosol particles and HNO₃ gas. This model was incorporated into the dynamic framework of an entraining air parcel model with which we computed the uptake of nitrate by cloud drops whose size distribution changes with time because of condensation, collision-coalescence and break-up. Significant differences were found between the scavenging behavior of nitrate and our former results on the scavenging behavior of sulfate. These reflect the following chemical and microphysical differences between the two systems:

1. nitrate particles occur in a larger size range than sulfate particles.
2. HNO₃ has a much greater solubility than SO₂ and is taken up irreversibly inside the drops in contrast to SO₂.
3. nitric acid in the cloud water is formed directly on uptake of HNO₃ gas whereas on uptake of SO₂ sulfuric acid is formed only after the reaction with oxidizing agents such as e.g., H₂O₂ or O₃.
4. nitrate resulting from uptake of HNO₃ is confined mainly to small drops, whereas sulfate resulting from uptake of SO₂ is most concentrated in the largest, oldest drops, which have had the greatest time for reaction.

Sensitivity studies showed that the nitrate concentration of small drops is significantly affected by the mass accommodation coefficient.     

Inversions,and fog,stratus and cumulus formation in warm air over cooler water

Two aspects of convection over oceans are discussed and the following conclusions are derived from theoretical considerations.

1. The air layer over the sea will usually convect even when the water surface is ten degrees or more colder than the initial air temperature.
2. An inversion at stratus cloud tops is created by the stratus, and is not a necessary preexisting condition. Such inversions persist after subsidence evaporates the cloud.
3. Radiation heat exchange does not play an essential role in stratus formation or maintenance, and can either heat or cool the cloud.
4. Dry air convection does not erode inversions at the top of the convecting layer. Examples of soundings are discussed.
5. Fogs are most likely to form at sea where the water is coolest, and need no radiation effects to initiate cooling, or a boost from patches of warmer water, to begin convection.
6. Both stratus cloud growth, and the evaporation of clouds by cloud top entrainment, readjust the vertical structure of the air to leave a constant wet-bulb potential temperature with height.

These conclusions are supported by, firstly, a convective model which has been developed and which shows that vapor-driven convection over the ocean will proceed with zero or negative heat fluxes, at rates which saturate the lowest layer of the atmosphere in a few hours to altitudes of many tens of meters. Secondly, the availability of condensed moisture at the top of the surface layer cools the warmer entrained overlying dry air parcels so that when they descend they are no warmer than the sea surface temperature, and this induces downward moving plumes. This occurs if the wet-bulb potential temperature of the overlying air is less than the sea surface temperature, even if it is ten degrees C, or more, warmer in actual temperature.     

Land restoration in food security programmes: synergies with climate change mitigation

Food-insecure households in many countries depend on international aid to alleviate acute shocks and chronic shortages. Some food security programmes (including Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program–PSNP – which provides a case study for this article) have integrated aid in exchange for labour on public works to reduce long-term dependence by investing in the productive capacity and resilience of communities. Using this approach, Ethiopia has embarked upon an ambitious national programme of land restoration and sustainable land management. Although the intent was to reduce poverty, here we show that an unintended co-benefit is the climate-change mitigation from reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increased landscape carbon stocks. The article first shows that the total reduction in net GHG emissions from PSNP’s land management at the national scale is estimated at 3.4 million?Mg?CO₂e?y^?1 – approximately 1.5% of the emissions reductions in Ethiopia’s Nationally Determined Contribution for the Paris Agreement. The article then explores some of the opportunities and constraints to scaling up of this impact.

Key policy insights

• Food security programmes (FSPs) can contribute to climate change mitigation by creating a vehicle for investment in land and ecosystem restoration.

• Maximizing mitigation, while enhancing but not compromising food security, requires that climate projections, and mitigation and adaptation responses should be mainstreamed into planning and implementation of FSPs at all levels.

• Cross-cutting oversight is required to integrate land restoration, climate policy, food security and disaster risk management into a coherent policy framework.

• Institutional barriers to optimal implementation should be addressed, such as incentive mechanisms that reward effort rather than results, and lack of centralized monitoring and evaluation of impacts on the physical environment.

• Project implementation can often be improved by adopting best management practices, such as using productive living livestock barriers where possible, and increasing the integration of agroforestry and non-timber forest products into landscape regeneration.

     

On the desertification of the Sahel zone

Ground based measurements which were carried out in the Northern Sahel in southern Tunisia showed the following results:

1. The albedo difference between ground and protected land is about 10%, half of the amount Charney (1975) used in his model.
2. Bare soil is always warmer during times of bright sunshine than vegetated soil, which is in agreement with Jackson and Idso (1975). Temperature differences in excess of the 10 °C were observed between plants and the surrounding soil.
3. For bare soil, the surface temperature increases with declining albedo. However the opposite holds true for plants. Here, when lowering the albedo, a decrease in temperature was found.
4. In a sand dune field, the surface temperature depends strongly on the exposure. Surface temperature differences of 8 °C were observed for slopes of different exposures for measurements carried out around noon.

     

The population structural transition effect on rising per capita CO2 emissions: evidence from China

ABSTRACT

The per capita CO₂ emissions (PCCE) of many developing countries like China have been rising faster than total CO₂ emissions, and display spatial divergence. Such temporal growth and spatial divergence will have a significant influence on efforts to mitigate CO₂ emissions. Given the research gap on the impact of the structural transition in population on PCCE, we constructed an econometric model using the dynamic panel method. The results reveal that the population structural transition has a significant nonlinear impact on PCCE, as the rate of population growth in China decelerates. Both demographic ageing and urban-rural migration have a stronger impact on PCCE than other factors. This effect, however, decreases beyond a certain threshold. An increase in the number of households due to urbanization and family downsizing has resulted in a positive effect on PCCE, without a threshold turning point. The research also finds that an increased share of the service sector in employment can reduce PCCE only if the sector employs more than 31.56% of the total employed population. Overall, these findings indicate that policymakers should pay attention to the prominence of the demographic structural transition for effective climate policy.

Key policy insights

• Policymakers should address rising per capita carbon emissions (PCCE) and their spatial divergence in future climate policies, not just total CO₂ emissions.

• The transitioning demographics of ageing and urbanization in China show a nonlinear, inverted U-shaped effect on PCCE instead of a continuously positive effect.

• Based on the nonlinear effect of employment structure on PCCE, policymakers should focus on the relationship between the structural transition of the economy and PCCE in future climate mitigation policies.

     

Escaping the climate policy uncertainty trap: options contracts for REDD+

Climate policy uncertainty significantly hinders investments in low-carbon technologies, and the global community is behind schedule to curb carbon emissions. Strong actions will be necessary to limit the increase in global temperatures, and continued delays create risks of escalating climate change damages and future policy costs. These risks are system-wide, long-term and large-scale and thus hard to diversify across firms. Because of its unique scale, cost structure and near-term availability, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries (REDD+) has significant potential to help manage climate policy risks and facilitate the transition to lower greenhouse gas emissions. ‘Call’ options contracts in the form of the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits from jurisdictional REDD+ programmes at a predetermined price per ton of CO₂ could help unlock this potential despite the current lack of carbon markets that accept REDD+ for compliance. This approach could provide a globally important cost-containment mechanism and insurance for firms against higher future carbon prices, while channelling finance to avoid deforestation until policy uncertainties decline and carbon markets scale up.

Key policy insights

• Climate policy uncertainty discourages abatement investments, exposing firms to an escalating systemic risk of future rapid increases in emission control expenditures.

• This situation poses a risk of an abatement ‘short squeeze,’ paralleling the case in financial markets when prices jump sharply as investors rush to square accounts on an investment they have sold ‘short’, one they have bet against and promised to repay later in anticipation of falling prices.

• There is likely to be a willingness to pay for mechanisms that hedge the risks of abruptly rising carbon prices, in particular for ‘call’ options, the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits at a predetermined price, due to the significantly lower upfront capital expenditure compared to other hedging alternatives.

• Establishing rules as soon as possible for compliance market acceptance of high-quality emissions reductions credits from REDD+ would facilitate REDD+ transactions, including via options-based contracts, which could help fill the gap of uncertain climate policies in the short and medium term.

     

Wind characteristics at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory

Wind speeds at the 300 m tower at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory have been analyzed. This tower is located in slightly rolling farmland. The following conclusions have been reached:

1. For west winds, the terrain is sufficiently uniform for simple surface-layer theory to be adequate without modification even though the air has moved up a small slope to reach the tower. For south and southeast winds, ‘effective’ roughness lengths must be introduced, which are significantly larger than the ‘true’ roughness length.
2. Useful wind estimates up to 150 m can be made from winds at 10 m and stability information, provided the ‘effective’ roughness length is known.
3. The observations are consistent with a von Kármán constant of 0.35.

     

Climate change mitigation: trade-offs between delay and strength of action required

Climate change mitigation via a reduction in the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) is the principle requirement for reducing global warming, its impacts, and the degree of adaptation required. We present a simple conceptual model of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions to highlight the trade off between delay in commencing mitigation, and the strength of mitigation then required to meet specific atmospheric CO₂ stabilization targets. We calculate the effects of alternative emission profiles on atmospheric CO₂ and global temperature change over a millennial timescale using a simple coupled carbon cycle-climate model. For example, if it takes 50 years to transform the energy sector and the maximum rate at which emissions can be reduced is ?2.5% $\text{year}^{-1}$ , delaying action until 2020 would lead to stabilization at 540 ppm. A further 20 year delay would result in a stabilization level of 730 ppm, and a delay until 2060 would mean stabilising at over 1,000 ppm. If stabilization targets are met through delayed action, combined with strong rates of mitigation, the emissions profiles result in transient peaks of atmospheric CO₂ (and potentially temperature) that exceed the stabilization targets. Stabilization at 450 ppm requires maximum mitigation rates of ?3% to ?5% $\text{year}^{-1}$ , and when delay exceeds 2020, transient peaks in excess of 550 ppm occur. Consequently tipping points for certain Earth system components may be transgressed. Avoiding dangerous climate change is more easily achievable if global mitigation action commences as soon as possible. Starting mitigation earlier is also more effective than acting more aggressively once mitigation has begun.