Preliminary Reconstructions of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Southern Oscillation Index from Measures of Wind Strength and Direction Taken During the Cliwoc Period

Using measures of wind strength and direction taken onboard ships during the 1750–1850 (CLIWOC project) period, preliminary reconstructions are attempted for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The reconstructions are based on regression equations developed using similar data from the ICOADS dataset. Although the regression relationships developed over a calibration period (1881–1940) work almost as well over an independent verification period (1941–1997), application to the earlier 1750–1850 period results in barely statistically significant correlation coefficients when compared with a number of other NAO and SOI reconstructions from other proxy and long instrumental sources. A number of possibilities are investigated to attempt to determine the cause, the most likely of which is that the number of observations available for the CLIWOC period is just too low in some regions. As large numbers of ships' logbooks remain to be digitised, the regression relationships will prove useful to focus effort in future digitisation endeavours.     

CLIWOC: A Climatological Database for the World's Oceans 1750–1854

We have compiled a meteorological database over the world's oceans by digitizing data from European ship logbooks of voyages in the period 1750–1854. The observations are carefully reviewed and transformed into quantitative data. The chief contents of the database are wind direction and wind force information, from a period without standardized scales. It is found that the information content of these so-called non-instrumental data is much higher than previously believed. The 105-year CLIWOC database extends existing meteorological world ocean databases like ICOADS back in time by a full century.     

Early Ship Observational Data and Icoads

Many surface marine meteorological observations (∼125 million) from ships' logbooks have been assembled in the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) back to the late 18th century. We describe the makeup of the available data before 1950, and a recent update for that period incorporating a variety of US and international sources – focusing on the background, digitization, and processing of the US Maury Collection, which provides the earliest data (mainly 1830–1860) currently blended into ICOADS. We also describe planned data and metadata additions to early ICOADS. Among these, the new Climatological Database for the World's Oceans (CLIWOC) will extend and enhance coverage for 1750–1854. Prospects for data improvements and homogeneity enhancements to further benefit climate research are also discussed.     

The Weather of the European Atlantic Seaboard During October 1805: An Exercise in Historical Climatology

Several thousand ships' logbooks havesurvived from the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries.They provide a valuable source of climaticinformation. This paper takes the Battle of Trafalgaras an example of how this source can be used toprovide a better knowledge and understanding ofweather and climate from those distant times. Thereliability of the non-instrumental climatic recordsof the logbooks is confirmed and a simple statisticalmeasure is used to quantify their degree ofconsistency. Reconstructions of daily weather patternsare made and a zonal index is calculated to representthe circulation patterns of the region. The movementsof pressure systems are plotted and indicate that thezonal index was negative (air pressure increasing fromsouth to north) for most of the month. The storm thatfollowed the battle is identified as one of notableseverity. This extreme behaviour is interpreted withinthe context of longer-term aspects of the contemporaryclimate.     

多普勒雷达四维变分分析系统概述

《热带气象学报》是中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所主办的学术期刊,由气象出版社出版;其前身是《热带气象》,创刊于1984年,已经连续出版20年了。《热带气象学报》主要刊登热带大气科学的基础理论研究及应用研究方面的论文、热带地区天气预报的先进方法和成功的经验、推动学科发展的综合评述和学术动态。当前一段时间的刊登重点是:海气相互作用,中低纬大气环流相互作用,低频振荡及遥相关,低纬大气环流异常及其机制,热带大气环流异常对全球天气、气候的影响以及季风动力学、热带气旋动力学与运动学等的学术成果。由于国家重视气象科学研究,…     

Atmospheric circulation and storminess derived from Royal Navy logbooks: 1685 to 1750

This paper is concerned with the use of Royal Navy ships’ logbooks for the period 1685 to 1750, thereby embracing the oldest members of this documentary series that extends to the present day. The geographic range of the undertaking is confined to the English Channel and its western approaches where the abundance of logbooks for this period allows for the abstraction of a daily series of wind force and direction data. These are verified and processed for inclusion in a database from which indices are derived for air circulation patterns based on the frequency of winds from north, east, south and west quarters, and of gale frequency, based on the contemporary terminology of wind force. The methods by which the data are abstracted and processed are described, as is the nature of the raw data and source material. The results provide a uniquely detailed insight into the changing patterns of air circulation over this critical period that marked the transition from the depths of the Little Ice Age in the late seventeenth century. Attention is also drawn to the changing nature of gale frequency, which revealed a notable decrease over the study period. Associations between changing circulation patterns and temperature regimes are also explored.     

Indigenous Australians’ knowledge of weather and climate

Although the last 200 years of colonisation has brought radical changes in economic and governance structures for thousands of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders living in remote areas of northern Australia, many of these Indigenous people still rely upon, and live closely connected to, their natural environment. Over millennia, living ‘on country’, many of these communities have developed a sophisticated appreciation of their local ecosystems and the climatic patterns associated with the changes in them. Some of this knowledge is recorded in their oral history passed down through generations, documented in seasonal weather calendars in local languages and, to a limited degree, transcribed and translated into English. This knowledge is still highly valued by these communities today, as it is used to direct hunting, fishing and planting as well as to inform many seasonally dependant cultural events. In recent years, local observations have been recognised by non-Indigenous scientists as a vital source of environmental data where few historic records exist. Similar to the way that phenological observations in the UK and US provide baseline information on past climates, this paper suggests that Indigenous observations of seasonal change have the potential to fill gaps in climate data for tropical northern Australia, and could also serve to inform culturally appropriate adaptation strategies. One method of recording recent direct and indirect climate and weather observations for the Torres Strait Islands is documented in this paper to demonstrate the currency of local observations of climate and its variability. The paper concludes that a comprehensive, participatory programme to record Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander knowledge of past climate patterns, and recent observations of change, would be timely and valuable for the communities themselves, as well as contributing to a greater understanding of regional climate change that would be useful for the wider Australian population.     

The Non-Climatic Research Potential of Ships' Logbooks and Journals

The large-scale study of ship's logbooks for climatic data has revealed the wide and varied potential of this under-exploited resource for the study of the past. As well as being of utility to climatologists, the daily recording of shipboard information can help illuminate a number of themes of interest to maritime and naval historians. More than this, however, such studies can help inform both more general and other specialized historical studies. Logbooks contain both anecdotal and statistical data relevant to the studies of medical historians, the history of science and navigation, social history, economic history, warfare, imperial history and of course environmental history. Moreover, many of these themes can be studied in a multi-national context and furthermore, if studied in a multi-disciplinary context, can offer many useful insights.     

淮河流域能量和水分循环研究进展

1998和1999年夏,中国与日本科学家合作在安徽省淮河流域进行了第一次大规模的能量与水循环试验(WCRP/GEWEX/GAME/HUBEX),其重点是研究东亚梅雨锋系的多尺度,多系统结构、特征、生命史、发生发展机理及其引起洪涝灾害的原因。这是第一次中日合作的气象与水文联合观测试验,在此加强观测的基础上,双方进一步进行了长达5年的资料整理分析和科学研究工作,整个淮河流域能量与水循环试验与研究取得了全面和丰硕的成果。文中介绍了该计划所取得的主要成果,并以现在科学进展的视野重新评估这些成果的科学意义和不足,为进一步开展新的淮河与长江中下游梅雨科学联合试验提供经验和新的研究目标。     

The importance of ship log data: reconstructing North Atlantic, European and Mediterranean sea level pressure fields back to 1750

Local to regional climate anomalies are to a large extent determined by the state of the atmospheric circulation. The knowledge of large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) variations in former times is therefore crucial when addressing past climate changes across Europe and the Mediterranean. However, currently available SLP reconstructions lack data from the ocean, particularly in the pre-1850 period. Here we present a new statistically-derived 5° × 5° resolved gridded seasonal SLP dataset covering the eastern North Atlantic, Europe and the Mediterranean area (40°W–50°E; 20°N–70°N) back to 1750 using terrestrial instrumental pressure series and marine wind information from ship logbooks. For the period 1750–1850, the new SLP reconstruction provides a more accurate representation of the strength of the winter westerlies as well as the location and variability of the Azores High than currently available multiproxy pressure field reconstructions. These findings strongly support the potential of ship logbooks as an important source to determine past circulation variations especially for the pre-1850 period. This new dataset can be further used for dynamical studies relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to temperature and precipitation variability over the Mediterranean and Eurasia, for the comparison with outputs from GCMs as well as for detection and attribution studies.     

单部多卜勒天气雷达探测低空风切变方法

利用单多卜勒天气雷达风场资料对一维径向、一维方位、二维复合风切变值进行了计算 ,并对机场附近飞机所受气流速度变化进行分析。所得结果旨在定量描述机场附近低空风切变区 ,检验对下击暴流、中气旋、阵风锋探测的结果 ,确定飞机起降潜在危险区。     

基于卫星资料梯度信息的新型变分同化方法对于台风数值模拟的研究

卫星资料凭着卫星遥感的全球性、连续性和高频次观测等优势,成为一种重要的非常规资料源,但卫星观测仍然存在各种各样的观测误差,其中包含由于观测偶然性所造成的统计学上的随机误差及仪器本身和辐射传输模式等造成的系统性偏差,这些误差在很大程度上影响了卫星资料的质量。文中提出了一种能有效订正卫星观测资料系统性偏差的梯度信息同化算法,该方法用一个梯度算子进行模式变量与观测变量的梯度变换,从而达到订正系统性偏差的目的。本文利用WRF（Weather Research Forecast）模式及其同化模式WRFDA（WRF Data Assimilation system）,以及AIRS（Atmospheric Infrared Sounder）资料,对台风“圆规”进行了实际的数值模拟和同化试验,数值结果表明,梯度信息同化方法能明显改善台风路径的模拟,在处理可信度较低的资料时仍然适用。另外,通过同化诊断分析,发现卫星资料的系统性偏差对于台风数值模拟有较大影响,而文中提出的梯度信息同化方法能较好的解决此类问题。     

Evaluation of HadCM2 and Direct Use of Daily GCM Data in Impact Assessment Studies

This paper investigates two important aspects of methods used to explore possible effects of climatic changes on agricultural productivity on regional spatial scales. First, an evaluation of precipitation and near surface air temperature in two successive versions of the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM) has been performed to consider to what extent GCMs are capable of simulating the mean and variability of local climates. This is explored by comparing the output of an individual GCM grid box with three station observations. Several ancillary issues associated with the comparisons of observations of daily precipitation and model output that affect the statistical results are also discussed. Finally, daily data from the control and sulphate runs of the latest Hadley Centre GCM (HadCM2) have been used directly as input to the CERES-Wheat model, and the modelled yield distribution is compared to that produced with the historical data series. Our results imply that for this particular grid box covering the study region in central France, the daily raw data from HadCM2 experiment can be used directly to assess the potential impact of the greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol radiative induced forcings and the associated climatic change on average regional winter wheat production. On the other hand, less confidence should be placed on their use regarding the estimation of future agricultural risk and variability assessment. Furthermore, a possibly more severe methodological problem that has arisen from our study is the inability of CERES-Wheat to simulate the waterlogging effects of excessive soil water on crop growth and development. Finally, we assess the potential impact of changing climate on regional winter wheat production by using the daily data from the sulphate integration up to the end of the 21st century.     

云天地表总辐射和净辐射瞬时值的计算方法

为减少计算机时,满足实时预报要求,全球数值预报模式中的辐射计算频率通常设定为三小时。这样处理会大大减少计算量,但也同时导致较大辐射日变化偏差,并影响模式对地面能量平衡,对流及降水的模拟。为改进这一缺陷,我们开发了一种辐射快速计算方案,可用于计算瞬时地面太阳总辐射和净辐射,使到达地面的太阳辐射计算可与模式积分同步进行,从而改善地面太阳辐射日变化模拟。本文介绍云天的计算方法。该方案所用的输入变量均为预报模式或卫星观测所能提供的量。结果表明：该方案既可用于数值预报模式也可利用观测资料独立计算地面太阳辐射。经与美国能源部大气辐射观测资料检验,该方案的精度很高,地面总辐射瞬时值的平均计算误差小于7%。     

Terrestrial satellite records for climate studies: how long is long enough? A test case for the Sahel

Satellite-based observations provide a unique data record to study the Earth system. Recent efforts of the space agencies to reprocess the archives of satellite observations aim to provide Essential Climate Variable (ECV) data records for manifold applications in climate sciences. Varying lengths of a data record or gaps in a data time series are likely to affect the analysis results obtained from long-term satellite data records. The present paper provides a systematic assessment of the impact of variations in the observational record of terrestrial ECVs for selected climate applications like trend detection and the analysis of relationships between different ECVs. As an example, the Sahelian drought and the subsequent recovery in precipitation and vegetation will be analyzed in detail using observations of precipitation, surface albedo, vegetation index, as well as ocean indices. The paper provides a different perspective on the robustness of long-term satellite observations than previous studies. It shows in particular that the long-term significant trends in precipitation and vegetation dynamics are rather sensitive to the investigation period chosen and that small data gaps can already have a considerable influence on the analysis results. It is therefore a plea for continuous climate observations from space.