Physical and dynamical oceanography of Liverpool Bay

The UK National Oceanography Centre has maintained an observatory in Liverpool Bay since August 2002. Over 8 years of observational measurements are used in conjunction with regional ocean modelling data to describe the physical and dynamical oceanography of Liverpool Bay and to validate the regional model, POLCOMS. Tidal dynamics and plume buoyancy govern the fate of the fresh water as it enters the sea, as well as the fate of its sediment, contaminants and nutrient loads. In this context, an overview and summary of Liverpool Bay tidal dynamics are presented. Freshwater forcing statistics are presented showing that on average the bay receives 233 m³ s^− 1. Though the region is salinity controlled, river input temperature is shown to significantly modulate the plume buoyancy with a seasonal cycle. Stratification strongly influences the region’s dynamics. Data from long-term moored instrumentation are used to analyse the stratification statistics that are representative of the region. It is shown that for 65% of tidal cycles, the region alternates between being vertically mixed and stratified. Plume dynamics are diagnosed from the model and are presented for the region. The spring–neap modulation of the plume’s westward extent, between 3.5 °W and 4°W, is highlighted. The rapid eastward erosion of the plume during spring tides is identified as a potentially important freshwater mixing mechanism. Novel climatological maps of temperature, salinity and density from the CTD surveys are presented and used to validate numerical simulations. The model is found to be sensitive to the freshwater forcing rates, temperature and salinities. The existing CTD survey grid is shown to not extend sufficiently near the coast to capture the near coastal and vertically mixed component the plume. Instead the survey grid captures the westward spreading, shallow and transient, portion of the plume. This transient plume feature is shown in both the long-term averaged model and observational data as a band of stratified fluid stretching between the mouth of the Mersey towards the Isle of Man. Finally the residual circulation is discussed. Long-term moored ADCP data are favourably compared with model data, showing the general northward flow of surface water and southward trajectory of bottom water.     

Effect of stratification on tidal circulation over the Scotian Shelf and Gulf of St. Lawrence: a numerical study using a three-dimensional shelf circulation model

A three-dimensional shelf circulation model is used to examine the effect of seasonal changes in water-column stratification on the tidal circulation over the Scotian Shelf and Gulf of St. Lawrence. The model is driven by tidal forcing specified at the model’s lateral open boundaries in terms of tidal sea surface elevations and depth-averaged currents for five major tidal constituents (M₂, N₂, S₂, K₁, and O₁). Three numerical experiments are conducted to determine the influence of baroclinic pressure gradients and changes in vertical mixing, both associated with stratification, on the seasonal variation of tidal circulation over the study region. The model is initialized with climatological hydrographic fields and integrated for 16 months in each experiment. Model results from the last 12 months are analyzed to determine the dominant semidiurnal and diurnal tidal components, M₂ and K₁. Model results suggest that the seasonal variation in the water-column stratification affects the M₂ tidal circulation most strongly over the shelf break and over the deep waters off the Scotian Shelf (through the development of baroclinic pressure gradients) and along Northumberland Strait in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (through changes in vertical mixing and bottom stress). For the K₁ constituent, the baroclinic pressure gradient and vertical mixing have opposing effects on the tidal circulation over several areas of the study region, while near the bottom, vertical mixing appears to play only a small role in the tidal circulation.     

Suppressing bias and drift of coastal circulation models through the assimilation of seasonal climatologies of temperature and salinity

Recently Thompson et al. (2006. A simple method for reducing seasonal bias and drift in eddy resolving ocean models. Ocean Modelling 13, 109–125.) proposed a new method for suppressing the bias and drift of ocean circulation models. The basic idea is to nudge the model toward gridded climatologies of observed temperature and salinity in prescribed frequency–wavenumber bands; outside of these bands the model's dynamics are not directly affected by the nudging and the model state can evolve prognostically. Given the restriction of the nudging to certain frequency–wavenumber bands, the method is termed spectral nudging. The frequency–wavenumber bands are chosen to capture the information in the climatology and thus are centered on the climatological frequencies of zero, one cycle per year and its harmonics, and also low wavenumbers (reflecting the smooth nature of gridded climatologies). The new method is applied in this study to a fully nonlinear, 3D baroclinic circulation model of the continental shelves and inland seas of Atlantic Canada and the northeast US. It is shown that the scheme can suppress drift and bias in a nine month integration (February–October, 2002) while still allowing realistic evolution of tides, surges and wind and tide-driven coastal upwelling. It is also shown that density stratification can affect significantly tidal elevations in some regions. The implications for ocean hindcasting and short-term forecasting are discussed.     

Horizontal patterns of water temperature and salinity in an estuarine tidal channel: Ria de Aveiro

This work presents results from two complementary and interconnected approaches to study water temperature and salinity patterns in an estuarine tidal channel. This channel is one of the four main branches of the Ria de Aveiro, a shallow lagoon located in the Northwest coast of the Iberian Peninsula. Longitudinal and cross-sectional fields of water temperature and salinity were determined by spatial interpolation of field measurements. A numerical model (Mohid) was used in a 2D depth-integrated mode in order to compute water temperature and salinity patterns. The main purpose of this work was to determine the horizontal patterns of water temperature and salinity in the study area, evaluating the effects of the main forcing factors. The field results were depth-integrated and compared to numerical model results. These results obtained using extreme tidal and river runoff forcing, are also presented. The field results reveal that, when the river flow is weak, the tidal intrusion is the main forcing mechanism, generating saline and thermal fronts which migrate with the neap/spring tidal cycle. When the river flow increases, the influence of the freshwater extends almost as far as the mouth of the lagoon and vertical stratification is established. Results of numerical modelling reveal that the implemented model reproduces quite well the observed horizontal patterns. The model was also used to study the hydrology of the study area under extreme forcing conditions. When the model is forced with a low river flow (1 m³ s⁻¹) the results confirm that the hydrology is tidally dominated. When the model is forced with a high river flow (1,000 m³ s⁻¹) the hydrology is dominated by freshwater, as would be expected in such an area.     

赤道MJO活动对南海夏季风爆发的影响

利用1979—2013年NCEP/DOE再分析资料的大气多要素日平均资料、美国NOAA日平均向外长波辐射资料和ERSST月平均海温资料,分析赤道大气季节内振荡(简称MJO)活动对南海夏季风爆发的影响及其与热带海温信号等的协同作用.结果表明,赤道MJO活动与南海夏季风爆发密切联系,MJO的湿位相(即对流活跃位相)处于西太平洋位相时,有利于南海夏季风爆发,而MJO湿位相处于印度洋位相时,则不利于南海夏季风爆发.赤道MJO活动影响南海夏季风爆发的物理过程主要是大气对热源响应的结果,当MJO湿位相处于西太平洋位相时,一方面热带西太平洋对流加强使潜热释放增加,导致处于热源西北侧的南海—西北太平洋地区对流层低层由于Rossby响应产生气旋性环流异常,气旋性环流异常则有利于西太平洋副热带高压的东退,另一方面菲律宾附近热源促进对流层高层南亚高压在中南半岛和南海北部的建立,使南海地区高层为偏东风,从而有利于南海夏季风建立;当湿位相MJO处于印度洋位相时,热带西太平洋对流减弱转为大气冷源,情况基本相反,不利于南海夏季风建立.MJO活动、孟加拉湾气旋性环流与年际尺度海温变化协同作用,共同对南海夏季风爆发迟早产生影响,近35年南海夏季风爆发时间与海温信号不一致的年份,基本上是由于季节转换期间的MJO活动特征及孟加拉湾气旋性环流是否形成而造成,因此三者综合考虑对于提高季风爆发时间预测水平具有重要意义.     

A high-resolution satellite-derived sea surface temperature climatology for the western North Atlantic Ocean

Long-term and high-resolution (∼1.2 km) satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) fields of a monthly mean time series for the 1985–1999 period, and a daily climatology have been calculated for the North West Atlantic Ocean. The SST fields extend from 78°W to 41°W in longitude, and 30°N to 56°N in latitude, encompassing the region off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, to the southern Labrador Sea. The monthly mean time series, consists of 180 cloud-masked monthly mean SST fields, derived from a full-resolution NOAA/NASA Pathfinder SST data set for the 1985–1999 period. The satellite-derived monthly mean SST fields, as compared with in situ monthly mean near-surface ocean temperatures from buoys located in the western North Atlantic, yield an overall RMS difference of 1.15 °C. The daily climatology, which consists of 365 fields, was derived by applying a least-squares harmonic regression technique on the monthly mean SST time series for the full study period. The monthly mean and daily climatological SST fields will be useful for studying inter-annual variability related to climate variability of SST over the study domain.     

Processes of India’s offshore summer intraseasonal sea surface temperature variability

Active and break phases of the Indian summer monsoon are associated with sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations at 30–90 days timescale in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Mechanisms responsible for basin-scale intraseasonal SST variations have previously been discussed, but the maxima of SST variability are actually located in three specific offshore regions: the South-Eastern Arabian Sea (SEAS), the Southern Tip of India (STI) and the North-Western Bay of Bengal (NWBoB). In the present study, we use an eddy-permitting 0.25° regional ocean model to investigate mechanisms of this offshore intraseasonal SST variability. Modelled climatological mixed layer and upper thermocline depth are in very good agreement with estimates from three repeated expendable bathythermograph transects perpendicular to the Indian Coast. The model intraseasonal forcing and SST variability agree well with observed estimates, although modelled intraseasonal offshore SST amplitude is undere-stimated by 20–30 %. Our analysis reveals that surface heat flux variations drive a large part of the intraseasonal SST variations along the Indian coastline while oceanic processes have contrasted contributions depending of the region considered. In the SEAS, this contribution is very small because intraseasonal wind variations are essentially cross-shore, and thus not associated with significant upwelling intraseasonal fluctuations. In the STI, vertical advection associated with Ekman pumping contributes to ～30 % of the SST fluctuations. In the NWBoB, vertical mixing diminishes the SST variations driven by the atmospheric heat flux perturbations by 40 %. Simple slab ocean model integrations show that the amplitude of these intraseasonal SST signals is not very sensitive to the heat flux dataset used, but more sensitive to mixed layer depth.     

Performance of a nowcast/forecast system for Prince William Sound,Alaska

A coastal ocean extended Prince William Sound nowcast/forecast system (EPWS/NFS) has been running semi-automatically for an extended domain of Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska for 2 years. To determine the performance of this modeling system, an assessment is conducted. EPWS/NFS and PWS/NFS (viz., its predecessor) nowcasts are compared with observed time series of sea surface temperature (SST) and coastal sea level (CSL) at a few stations, and to velocity profiles from a moored ADCP. With the extension of the model domain to include the continental shelf outside PWS and forced by an operational global ocean model (Global-Navy Coastal Ocean Model (Global-NCOM)) and a 2D tidal model at the open boundary, EPWS/NFS has achieved significant improvement over PWS/NFS, which covered only PWS per se, for most of the predicted variables in this study. In both magnitude and phase, EPWS/NFS accurately predicts the coastal tide fluctuations, as well as M2 tidal currents in Central Sound, although significant errors in coastal tides exist during some spring and neap tide cycles. Other than for the tidal motions, EPWS/NFS generally produces less energetic CSL and velocity variations than those observed. In comparison, although PWS/NFS well predicts the coastal tides, it suffers from the absence of low-frequency CSL variations, as well as misprediction of M2 tidal currents in Central Sound. For 40 h low-passed PWS/NFS and EPWS/NFS velocities, significant phase error occurs during the model–date comparison period, while EPWS/NFS nowcasts generally produce less root-mean-square-error (rmse) and smaller correlations with the observations than PWS/NFS does. Both observations and EPWS/NFS have similar vertical profiles of baroclinic velocity standard deviations, but some substantial discrepancies occur in the velocity direction. Also, in the Central Sound, EPWS/NFS predicts well the SST seasonal cycle and a major cooling event during the summer 2005. However, for periods shorter than 1 week, both PWS/NFS and EPWS/NFS SST underestimated the observed fluctuations by an order of magnitude.     

Developing configuration of WRF model for long-term high-resolution wind wave hindcast over the North Atlantic with WAVEWATCH III

The spatial resolution of wind forcing fields is critical for modeling ocean surface waves. We analyze here the performance of the non-hydrostatic numerical weather prediction system WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting) run with a 14-km resolution for hindcasting wind waves in the North Atlantic. The regional atmospheric model was run in the domain from 20° N to 70° N in the North Atlantic and was forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis as initial and boundary conditions in a spectral nudging mode. Here, we present the analysis of the impact of spectral nudging formulation (cutoff wavelengths and depth through which full weighting from reanalysis data is applied) onto the performance of the modeled 10-m wind speed and wind wave fields for 1 year (2010). For modeling waves, we use the third-generation spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III. The sensitivity of the atmospheric and wave models to the spectral nudging formulation is investigated via the comparison with reanalysis and observational data. The results reveal strong and persistent agreement with reanalysis data during all seasons within the year with well-simulated annual cycle and regional patterns independently of the nudging parameters that were tested. Thus, the proposed formulation of the nudging provides a reliable framework for future long-term experiments aiming at hindcasting climate variability in the North Atlantic wave field. At the same time, dynamical downscaling allows for simulation of higher waves in coastal regions, specifically near the Greenland east coast likely due to a better representation of the mesoscale atmospheric dynamics in this area.     

Remote sensing and modelling of bio-physical distribution patterns at Porcupine and Rockall Bank,Northeast Atlantic

Monthly composites of multi-year sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) have been used in combination with ocean model simulations to study bio-physical distribution patterns at Porcupine and Rockall Bank, two large submarine banks in the Northeast Atlantic in close proximity to the European shelf edge. Seven years (January 1998–December 2004) of remotely sensed data have been collated to create monthly climatological fields and to analyse principal spatio-temporal characteristics. At both banks, a region of cooler SST is found over the summit region compared to warmer waters of the surrounding ocean, less apparent in summer when capped by the seasonal thermocline. Enhanced Chl-a levels are found over both banks with a lifetime partly exceeding the bloom period. At Rockall Bank, both SST and Chl-a signals are more pronounced and persistent showing a 30% increase in annual Chl-a levels over the summit area with an even higher ratio in spring and autumn. A combination of physical processes appears to promote the enhanced productivity over both banks through the generation of a quasi-steady dome of cold, dense water during winter convection and upwelling events. This cold dome is associated with the presence of a retentive circulation based on Taylor cap dynamics and tidal rectification processes. The larger and more persistent enhancement of Chl-a levels over Rockall Bank would appear due to its isolated nature as well as its size. In contrast, Porcupine Bank is partly attached to the Irish shelf edge and exposed to the poleward flowing shelf edge current which may strip passive particles from the central bank region. Satellite derived Chl-a spring/summer distributions over the banks have been used to initialise model simulations of passive tracer dispersion. Timescales for the observed lifetime of the remotely sensed Chl-a patches are consistent with model derived retention timescales and simple scaling for the dispersion of passive biological material over the banks. Surface particle residence times over Rockall Bank are estimated to exceed Porcupine Bank values by a factor of two. Finally, the tidal contribution to individual particle motion is found to be large in some Rockall Bank areas, but less important at Porcupine Bank.     

High-resolution atmospheric forcing for regional oceanic model: the Iroise Sea

This study was aimed at modeling, as realistically as possible, the dynamics and thermodynamics of the Iroise Sea by using the Model for Applications at Regional Scale (MARS), a regional ocean 3D model. The horizontal resolution of the configuration in use is 2 km with 30 vertical levels. The 3D model of the Iroise Sea is embedded in a larger model providing open boundary conditions. As regards the atmospheric forcing, the originality of this study is to force the regional ocean model with the high-resolution (6 km) regional meteorological model, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). In addition, as the air surface temperature is highly sensitive to the sea surface temperature (SST), this regional meteorological model is improved by taking into account a regional climatologic SST to compute meteorological parameters. By allowing a better coherence between the SST and the temperature of the atmospheric boundary layer while giving a more realistic representation of heat fluxes exchanged at the air/sea interface, this forcing constitutes a noticeable improvement of the Iroise Sea modeling. The different sensitivity tests discussed here pinpoint the importance of entering, in WRF, SST data of sufficiently high quality before the computation of meteorological forcing when the aim is a study of dynamics and thermodynamics far away from the coast. On the other hand, when the target is the reproduction of coastal small-scale features in Iroise Sea modeling, the resolution of the meteorological forcing and the quality of SST are both paramount. The simulation of reference was carried out throughout the Summer and Autumn of year 2005 to allow comparisons with a campaign of surface current measurements by high-frequency radars conducted at the same period.     

Experimental Seasonal Forecast of Monsoon 2005 Using T170L42 AGCM on PARAM Padma

As a part of the Experimental Extended Range Monsoon Prediction Experiment, ensemble mode seasonal runs for the monsoon season of 2005 were made using the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), T170L42 AGCM. The seasonal runs were made using six initial atmospheric conditions based on the NCEP operational analysis and with forecast monthly sea-surface temperature (SST) of the NCEP Coupled forecast system (CFS). These simulations were carried out on the PARAM Padma supercomputer of Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC), India. The model climatology was prepared by integrating the model for ten years using climatological SST as the lower boundary. The climatology of the model compares well with the observed, in terms of the spatial distribution of rainfall over the Indian land mass. The model-simulated rainfall compares well with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates for the 2005 monsoon season. Compared to the model climatology (7.81 mm/day), the model had simulated a normal rainfall (7.75 mm/day) for the year 2005 which is in agreement with the observations (99% of long-term mean). However, the model could not capture the observed increase in September rainfall from that of a low value in August 2005. The circulation patterns simulated by the model are also comparable to the observed patterns. The ensemble mean onset is found to be nearer to the observed onset date within one pentad.     

Upwelling and surface cold patches in the Yellow Sea in summer: Effects of tidal mixing on the vertical circulation

A three-dimensional, prognostic, wave–tide–circulation coupled numerical model is developed to study the effects of tidal mixing on the summertime vertical circulation in the Yellow Sea (YS). The distribution and mechanisms of upwelling are investigated by numerical means. Validated by historical tide gauge data, satellite sea surface temperature (SST) data, and cruise observation data, the model shows satisfactory performances in reproducing the dominant tidal system and three-dimensional sea temperature structure. Model results suggest that strong tidal mixing plays an important role in the formation of the vertical circulation in the YS. The Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass (YSCWM) is fringed by typical tidal mixing fronts (TMFs), which separate the cold, stratified water at the offshore side from the warm, well-mixed, shallow water at the other side. Considerable baroclinic gradient across the TMF makes the frontal zone the spot where the most active vertical circulation occurs; a secondary circulation is triggered with a distinct upwelling branch occurring mainly on the mixed side of the front. The numerical model produces systematic upwelling belts surrounding the YSCWM, and the upwelling is essentially induced by the TMF over sloping topography. The relative importance of tidal mixing and wind forcing for upwelling is further examined in numerical experiments. The southerly wind enhances the upwelling off the western coasts, but its overall influences in the whole YS are less important than tidal mixing. As shown by both satellite data and numerical modeling, the summertime SST field in the YS is featured by the stable existence of several site-selective surface cold patches (SCPs), most of which scatter in the waters off convex coastlines. One of the SCPs is found off Subei Bank, and the others are located off the eastern tip of Shandong Peninsula and off the three tips of Korean Peninsula. Two processes give rise to the SCP: on the one hand, TMF-induced upwelling supplies cold water from the deep layer; on the other hand, tidal mixing itself can stir the bottom water upward and homogenize the water column vertically. In the waters around the tips of peninsula in the YS, the tidal currents are extraordinarily strong, which provides a possible explanation for the site-selectivity of the SCPs.     

Oxygen isotope stratigraphy and events in the northern South China Sea during the last 6 million years

Based on the stable isotopic analysis of more than 1000 samples of planktonic and benthic foraminifers from ODP Site 1148 in the northern South China Sea (SCS), the oxygen isotope stratigraphy has been applied to the last 3 million years for the first time in the SCS. Furthermore, the paleoceanographic changes in the northern SCS during the last 6 million years have been unraveled. The benthic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O record shows that before δ3.1 Ma the SCS was much more influenced by the warm intermediate water of the Pacific. The remarkable decrease in the deepwater temperature of the SCS during the period of 3.1-2.5 Ma demonstrates the formation of the Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet. However, the several sea surface temperature (SST) reductions during the early and middle Pliocene, reflected by the planktonic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O, might be related to the ice-sheet growth in the Antarctic region. Only those stepwise and irreversible SST reductions during the period of δ2.2-0.9 Ma could be related to the formation and growth of the Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet.     

27.3-day and 13.6-day atmospheric tide

An analysis of time variations in the earth's length of day (LOD) for 25 years (1973-1998) versus at- mospheric circulation changes and lunar phase is presented. It is found that, on the average, there is a 27.3-day and 13.6-day period oscillation in global zonal wind speed, atmospheric geopotential height, and LOD following alternating changes in lunar phase. Every 5-9 days (6.8 days on average), the fields of global atmospheric zonal wind and geopotential height and LOD undergo a sudden change in rela- tion to a change in lunar declination. The observed atmospheric oscillation with this time period may be viewed as a type of atmospheric tide. Ten atmospheric tidal cases have been analyzed by comparing changes in LOD, global zonal wind speed and atmospheric geopotential height versus change in lunar declination. Taken together these cases reveal prominent 27.3-day and 13.6-day tides. The lunar forcing on the earth's atmosphere is great and obvious changes occur in global fields of zonal wind speed and atmospheric geopotential height over the equatorial and low latitude areas. The driving force for the 27.3-day and 13.6-day atmospheric tides is the periodic change in lunar forcing during the moon's revolution around the earth. When the moon is located on the celestial equator the lunar declination equals zero and the lunar tidal forcing on the atmosphere reaches its maximum, at this time the global zonal wind speed increases and the earth's rotation rate decreases and LOD increases. Conversely, when the moon reaches its most northern or southern positions the lunar declination is maximized, lunar tidal forcing decreases, global zonal wind speed decreases, earth's rotation rate increases and LOD decreases. 27.3-day and 13.6-day period atmospheric tides deserve deeper study. Lunar tidal forcing should be considered in models of atmospheric circulation and in short and medium range weather forecasting.     

Climatological Ertel’s potential-vorticity flux and mean meridional circulation in the extratropical troposphere – lower stratosphere

We investigated to what extent the isentropic, non-geostrophic formulation of zonally averaged circulation derived for stratospheric conditions is applicable to climatological transport in the extratropical troposphere and lower stratosphere. The study is based on 10 years of daily data of ECMWF analysis and on the ECHAM3 climate model of the German Climate Computing Centre. The main result is a scalar isentropic mixing coefficient, K_yy, and a mean meridional transport circulation consistently derived from the same data base. For both data sources, isentropic mean meridional circulation is derived from horizontal mass flow rate for 4 representative months. Alternatively, a mean meridional circulation is calculated from total diabatic heating rates of the ECHAM3 model. It is shown that only the latter is in good agreement with the ECMWF mean meridional circulation. Isentropic analysis also comprises the seasonal cycle of the climatological meridional gradient and flux of Ertels potential vorticity (PV). Application of Tungs flux-gradient relation yields that for all seasons K_yy is positive in height-latitude regions where statistical significance is reached. Large K_yy values, marking regions of more efficient mixing, have been found in the subtropical vertical band of weak westerly wind and in mid-latitudes in regions of upward-propagating baroclinic wave activity in the middle and upper troposphere. Based on the ECMWF data and results of baroclinic-wave behaviour, strong indications are presented that positive zonally averaged PV flux polewards of the jet core in the NH is strengthened by stationary waves and nonlinear effects. Reduced eddy transport is apparent in winter and spring slightly below the subtropical tropopause jet. The seasonal cycle of K_yy from ECHAM3 data is to a great extent in agreement with the result based on ECMWF analysis. In the model, reduced interannual variability enlarges the height-latitude range where sign of K_yy is significant.     

An inter-comparison of tidal solutions computed with a range of unstructured grid models of the Irish and Celtic Sea Regions

Three finite element codes, namely TELEMAC, ADCIRC and QUODDY, are used to compute the spatial distributions of the M₂, M₄ and M₆ components of the tide in the sea region off the west coast of Britain. This region is chosen because there is an accurate topographic dataset in the area and detailed open boundary M₂ tidal forcing for driving the model. In addition, accurate solutions (based upon comparisons with extensive observations) using uniform grid finite difference models forced with these open boundary data exist for comparison purposes. By using boundary forcing, bottom topography and bottom drag coefficients identical to those used in an earlier finite difference model, there is no danger of comparing finite element solutions for “untuned unoptimised solutions” with those from a “tuned optimised solution”. In addition, by placing the open boundary in all finite element calculations at the same location as that used in a previous finite difference model and using the same M₂ tidal boundary forcing and water depths, a like with like comparison of solutions derived with the various finite element models was possible. In addition, this open boundary was well removed from the shallow water region, namely the eastern Irish Sea where the higher harmonics were generated. Since these are not included in the open boundary, forcing their generation was determined by physical processes within the models. Consequently, an inter-comparison of these higher harmonics generated by the various finite element codes gives some indication of the degree of variability in the solution particularly in coastal regions from one finite element model to another. Initial calculations using high-resolution near-shore topography in the eastern Irish Sea and including “wetting and drying” showed that M₂ tidal amplitudes and phases in the region computed with TELEMAC were in good agreement with observations. The ADCIRC code gave amplitudes about 30 cm lower and phases about 8° higher. For the M₄ tide, in the eastern Irish Sea amplitudes computed with TELEMAC were about 4 cm higher than ADCIRC on average, with phase differences of order 5°. For the M₆ component, amplitudes and phases showed significant small-scale variability in the eastern Irish Sea, and no clear bias between the models could be found. Although setting a minimum water depth of 5 m in the near-shore region, hence removing wetting and drying, reduced the small-scale variability in the models, the differences in M₂ and M₄ tide between models remained. For M₆, a significant reduction in variability occurred in the eastern Irish Sea when a minimum 5-m water depth was specified. In this case, TELEMAC gave amplitudes that were 1 cm higher and phases 30° lower than ADCIRC on average. For QUODDY in the eastern Irish Sea, average M₂ tidal amplitudes were about 10 cm higher and phase 8° higher than those computed with TELEMAC. For M₄, amplitudes were approximately 2 cm higher with phases of order 15° higher in the northern part of the region and 15° lower in the southern part. For M₆ in the north of the region, amplitudes were 2 cm higher and about 2 cm lower in the south. Very rapid M₆ tidal-phase changes occurred in the near-shore regions. The lessons learned from this model inter-comparison study are summarised in the final section of the paper. In addition, the problems of performing a detailed model–model inter-comparison are discussed, as are the enormous difficulties of conducting a true model skill assessment that would require detailed measurements of tidal boundary forcing, near-shore topography and precise knowledge of bed types and bed forms. Such data are at present not available.     

Coupled assimilation for an intermediated coupled ENSO prediction model

The value of coupled assimilation is discussed using an intermediate coupled model in which the wind stress is the only atmospheric state which is slavery to model sea surface temperature (SST). In the coupled assimilation analysis, based on the coupled wind–ocean state covariance calculated from the coupled state ensemble, the ocean state is adjusted by assimilating wind data using the ensemble Kalman filter. As revealed by a series of assimilation experiments using simulated observations, the coupled assimilation of wind observations yields better results than the assimilation of SST observations. Specifically, the coupled assimilation of wind observations can help to improve the accuracy of the surface and subsurface currents because the correlation between the wind and ocean currents is stronger than that between SST and ocean currents in the equatorial Pacific. Thus, the coupled assimilation of wind data can decrease the initial condition errors in the surface/subsurface currents that can significantly contribute to SST forecast errors. The value of the coupled assimilation of wind observations is further demonstrated by comparing the prediction skills of three 12-year (1997–2008) hindcast experiments initialized by the ocean-only assimilation scheme that assimilates SST observations, the coupled assimilation scheme that assimilates wind observations, and a nudging scheme that nudges the observed wind stress data, respectively. The prediction skills of two assimilation schemes are significantly better than those of the nudging scheme. The prediction skills of assimilating wind observations are better than assimilating SST observations. Assimilating wind observations for the 2007/2008 La Niña event triggers better predictions, while assimilating SST observations fails to provide an early warning for that event.     

Numerical study of circulation and temperature-salinity distributions in the Bras d’Or Lakes

The Bras d’Or Lakes (BdOL) are a large, complex and virtually land-locked estuary in central Cape Breton Island of Nova Scotia and one of Canada’s charismatic ecosystems, sustaining ecological and cultural communities unique in many aspects. The BdOL comprise two major basins, many deep and shallow bays, several narrow channels and straits and a large, geologically complex watershed. Predictive knowledge of the water movement within the estuary is a key requirement for effective management and sustainable development of the BdOL ecosystem. A three-dimensional (3D) primitive-equation ocean circulation model is used to examine the estuary’s response to tides, winds and buoyancy forcing associated with freshwater runoff in a series of numerical experiments validated with empirical data. The model results generate intense, jet-like tidal flows of about 1 m s^?1 in the channels between the basins and connecting them to the ocean and relatively weak tidal currents in other regions, which agrees well with previous observations and numerical results. Wind forcing and buoyancy forcing associated with river runoff play important roles in generating the significant sub-tidal circulations in the estuary, including narrow channels, deep basins and shallow bays. The circulation model is also used to reconstruct the 3D circulation and temperature-salinity distributions in the summer months of 1974, when current and hydrographic measurements were made at several locations. The sub-tidal circulation in the estuary produced by the model is characterised by wind and barometric set-up and set-down in different sections of the system, and a classic two-layer estuarine circulation in which brackish, near-surface waters flow seaward from the estuary into the Atlantic Ocean, and deep salty waters flow landward through the major channel. The model results reproduce reasonably well the overall features of observed circulation and temperature-salinity fields made in the BdOL in 1974 but generally underestimate the observed currents and density stratification. The model discrepancies reflect the use of spatially mean wind forcing and spatially and monthly mean surface heat flux and the inability of the coarse model horizontal resolution (～500 m) to resolve narrow channels and straits.